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1	To weaponise or not to weaponise : Targeting water in civil war Groot, Irene Martine January 2020 (has links) While the increasing importance of water security has been widely recognised, little is known about why and when water is likely to become the target of rebel groups in civil war. This study aims to contribute to this knowledge gap and asks the question: Why do non-state actors sometimes weaponise water? Based on bargaining theory and insights from terrorism literature, this study contends that military necessity and political costs constitute the dilemma that a rebel group faces in deciding whether or not to weaponise water. Hence, the more a rebel group is faced with a need to pressure the government, the more likely the rebel group is to target water systems when the political costs are low. Through a qualitative case study involving process tracing and structured focused comparison, this thesis explores the suggested hypothesis for the case of the FARC in the Colombian conflict by comparing two periods of peace negotiations during 1991-1992 and 1998-2002. The findings suggest that political costs are a critical factor while military necessity seems of less importance in the decision to weaponise or not to weaponise. Future research is warranted and this study suggests several directions. Water weaponisation water security environmental security civil war FARC Colombian conflict Other Social Sciences Annan samhällsvetenskap
2	The Russian Playbook : Using History & Path Dependence to Analyse How Russia Operationalises Grand Strategy in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. Westbrook, Justine January 2023 (has links) To predict and prevent future armed conflicts like Russia’s war against Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2022, there is more value in knowing how these wars occurred rather than why they occurred. The Russian Playbook is built from three distinct “plays” employed by Moscow and organised in the theoretical framework of Historical Institutionalism through Path Dependence modelling. This research focuses on Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova as cases for comparison by building on the Soviet legacy in each state which forms the antecedent historical conditions of the Playbook’s Path Dependence. Where Play 1 focuses on offensive and defensive influence seeking as a form of structural persistence, Play 2’s shaping and weaponisation acts to counter reactive sequences. Both Plays function within path dependency’s punctuated equilibrium and appear consistently throughout Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova following the collapse of the Soviet Union. When Play 1 and Play 2 are overpowered by reactive sequences that cannot be countered, Moscow deems the disequilibrium as irremediable and the path towards conflict begins. Play 3 refers to the start of lock-in effects towards conflict, beginning with “pre-crisis” conditions. Play 3’s Lock-in Effectsserve as the period in which a predictable conflict outcome is likely to occur, though lock-in refers to the path adherence in preparation for future conflict. This Play occurs in both Georgia and Ukraine at the time of this research, though its future employment within Moldova should not be excluded. These actions, in the form of the Russian Playbook and its Plays act as a guide for operationalising and implementing Russia’s grand strategy. This research goes beyond individual figureheads of Russia or specific institutions and instead focuses on patterns that exist throughout historical cases. These patterns show there is nothing particularly “new” in how Russia operates despite the vast number of newly coined phrases including “hybrid” leading people to believe otherwise. As such, Putin did not create the Russian Playbook, he inherited it. / <p>Master's of Political Science with a Specialisation in International and European Relations.</p> Russia Security International Relations Conflict History Path Dependence Georgia Ukraine Moldova War Historical Institutionalism USSR Post-Soviet Deception Russian Influence Weaponization Weaponisation Donba South Ossetia Crimea Transnistria Pridnestrovia Russian Grand Strategy Abkhazia Frozen Conflict Playbook Political Science Statsvetenskap Social Sciences Interdisciplinary History Historia Globalisation Studies Globaliseringsstudier

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