Wikipedia is a multilingual encyclopedia written collaboratively by volunteers online, and it is now the largest, most visited encyclopedia in existence. Wikipedia has arisen through the self-organized collaboration of contributors, and since its launch in January 2001, its potential as a research resource has become apparent to scientists, its appeal lies in the fact that it strikes a middle ground between accurate, manually created, limited-coverage resources, and noisy knowledge mined from the web. For this reason, Wikipedia's content has been exploited for a variety of applications: to build knowledge bases, to study interactions between users on the Internet, and to investigate social and cultural issues such as gender bias in history, or the spreading of information. Similarly to what happened for the Web at large, a structure has emerged from the collaborative creation of Wikipedia: its articles contain hundreds of millions of links. In Wikipedia parlance, these internal links are called wikilinks. These connections explain the topics being covered in articles and provide a way to navigate between different subjects, contextualizing the information, and making additional information available. In this thesis, we argue that the information contained in the link structure of Wikipedia can be harnessed to gain useful insights by extracting it with dedicated algorithms. More prosaically, in this thesis, we explore the link structure of Wikipedia with new methods. In the first part, we discuss in depth the characteristics of Wikipedia, and we describe the process and challenges we have faced to extract the network of links. Since Wikipedia is available in several language editions and its entire edition history is publicly available, we have extracted the wikilink network at various points in time, and we have performed data integration to improve its quality. In the second part, we show that the wikilink network can be effectively used to find the most relevant pages related to an article provided by the user. We introduce a novel algorithm, called CycleRank, that takes advantage of the link structure of Wikipedia considering cycles of links, thus giving weight to both incoming and outgoing connections, to produce a ranking of articles with respect to an article chosen by the user. In the last part, we explore applications of CycleRank. First, we describe the Engineroom EU project, where we faced the challenge to find which were the most relevant Wikipedia pages connected to the Wikipedia article about the Internet. Finally, we present another contribution using Wikipedia article accesses to estimate how the information about diseases propagates. In conclusion, with this thesis, we wanted to show that browsing Wikipedia's wikilinks is not only fascinating and serendipitous, but it is an effective way to extract useful information that is latent in the user-generated encyclopedia.

This work aims to explore practical one-step-ahead forecasting of structurally changing data, an unstable behaviour, that real-life data connected to human activity often exhibit. This setting can be characterized as monitoring process. Various forecast models, methods and approaches can range from being simple and computationally "cheap" to very sophisticated and computationally "expensive". Moreover, different forecast methods handle different data-patterns and structural changes differently: for some particular data types or data intervals some particular forecast methods are better than the others, something that is usually not known beforehand. This raises a question: "Can one design a forecast procedure, that effectively and optimally switches between various forecast methods, adapting the forecast methods usage to the changes in the incoming data flow?" The thesis answers this question by introducing optimality concept, that allows optimal switching between simultaneously executed forecast methods, thus "tailoring" forecast methods to the changes in the data. It is also shown, how another forecast approach: combinational forecasting, where forecast methods are combined using weighted average, can be utilized by optimality principle and can therefore benefit from it. Thus, four classes of forecast results can be considered and compared: basic forecast methods, basic optimality, combinational forecasting, and combinational optimality. The thesis shows, that the usage of optimality gives results, where most of the time optimality is no worse or better than the best of forecast methods, that optimality is based on. Optimality reduces also scattering from multitude of various forecast suggestions to a single number or only a few numbers (in a controllable fashion). Optimality gives additionally lower bound for optimal forecasting: the hypothetically best achievable forecast result. The main conclusion is that optimality approach makes more or less obsolete other traditional ways of treating the monitoring processes: trying to find the single best forecast method for some structurally changing data. This search still can be sought, of course, but it is best done within optimality approach as its innate component. All this makes the proposed optimality approach for forecasting purposes a valid "representative" of a more broad ensemble approach (which likewise motivated development of now popular Ensemble Learning concept as a valid part of Machine Learning framework). / Denna avhandling syftar till undersöka en praktisk ett-steg-i-taget prediktering av strukturmässigt skiftande data, ett icke-stabilt beteende som verkliga data kopplade till människoaktiviteter ofta demonstrerar. Denna uppsättning kan alltså karakteriseras som övervakningsprocess eller monitoringsprocess. Olika prediktionsmodeller, metoder och tillvägagångssätt kan variera från att vara enkla och "beräkningsbilliga" till sofistikerade och "beräkningsdyra". Olika prediktionsmetoder hanterar dessutom olika mönster eller strukturförändringar i data på olika sätt: för vissa typer av data eller vissa dataintervall är vissa prediktionsmetoder bättre än andra, vilket inte brukar vara känt i förväg. Detta väcker en fråga: "Kan man skapa en predictionsprocedur, som effektivt och på ett optimalt sätt skulle byta mellan olika prediktionsmetoder och för att adaptera dess användning till ändringar i inkommande dataflöde?" Avhandlingen svarar på frågan genom att introducera optimalitetskoncept eller optimalitet, något som tillåter ett optimalbyte mellan parallellt utförda prediktionsmetoder, för att på så sätt skräddarsy prediktionsmetoder till förändringar i data. Det visas också, hur ett annat prediktionstillvägagångssätt: kombinationsprediktering, där olika prediktionsmetoder kombineras med hjälp av viktat medelvärde, kan utnyttjas av optimalitetsprincipen och därmed få nytta av den. Alltså, fyra klasser av prediktionsresultat kan betraktas och jämföras: basprediktionsmetoder, basoptimalitet, kombinationsprediktering och kombinationsoptimalitet. Denna avhandling visar, att användning av optimalitet ger resultat, där optimaliteten för det mesta inte är sämre eller bättre än den bästa av enskilda prediktionsmetoder, som själva optimaliteten är baserad på. Optimalitet reducerar också spridningen från mängden av olika prediktionsförslag till ett tal eller bara några enstaka tal (på ett kontrollerat sätt). Optimalitet producerar ytterligare en nedre gräns för optimalprediktion: det hypotetiskt bästa uppnåeliga prediktionsresultatet. Huvudslutsatsen är följande: optimalitetstillvägagångssätt gör att andra traditionella sätt att ta hand om övervakningsprocesser blir mer eller mindre föråldrade: att leta bara efter den enda bästa enskilda prediktionsmetoden för data med strukturskift. Sådan sökning kan fortfarande göras, men det är bäst att göra den inom optimalitetstillvägagångssättet, där den ingår som en naturlig komponent. Allt detta gör det föreslagna optimalitetstillvägagångssättetet för prediktionsändamål till en giltig "representant" för det mer allmäna ensembletillvägagångssättet (något som också motiverade utvecklingen av numera populär Ensembleinlärning som en giltig del av Maskininlärning).