Distributed generation has the potential to reduce the supply-demand gap emerging in New Zealand’s electricity market. Thereby it can improve the overall network efficiency, harness renewable energy resources and reduce the need for upgrading of existing distribution lines. A typical New Zealand rural community consisting of three adjacent farms at Totara Valley near Woodville represents a demonstration site on distributed generation for Massey University and Industrial Research Limited. Local renewable energy resources are being used for the purpose of sustainable development. Alternative micro-scale technologies are being combined to achieve a valuable network support. This paper is an in-depth report on the implementation process of the HyLink system; a system which utilises hydrogen as an energy carrier to balance and transport the fluctuating wind power. The report documents its development from the laboratory stage to commissioning at Totara Valley, which was carried out under direction of Industrial Research Limited. The PEM electrolyser’s performance at different stack temperatures was investigated. It was found that hydrogen production increases at the same voltage with a higher stack temperature. This is due to the improved kinetics of the electrochemical reactions and decreased thermodynamic energy requirement for water electrolysis. The electrolyser efficiency measurement at the half of its maximal power input (247 W) resulted in 65.3%. Thereby the stack temperature attained less than half of the allowed limit of 80°C. The capture of the excess heat by insulation can improve the electrolyser’s efficiency. Pressure tests were performed on the 2 km long pipeline at Totara Valley using hydrogen and natural gas in order to test their permeability. The results were compared with previous studies at Massey University and with data obtained from the industry. The hydrogen permeability was measured to be 5.5 * 10[to the power of]-16 mol m m[to the power of]-2 s[to the power of]-1 Pa[to the power of]-1 for a 2 km MDPE pipe. This is about half the result obtained from previous studies on hydrogen permeability through MDPE at Massey University which was undertaken at room temperature. The reason for this discrepancy is likely to be the lower ambient temperature during the measurement at Totara Valley, which can be supported with the Arrhenius equation. It was furthermore measured that the power loss due to hydrogen diffusion through the pipeline walls during the fuel cell operation is about 1.5 W at the current system operation mode. A techno-economic analysis of the system was undertaken applying the micro-power optimisation software HOMER as a simulation tool. Two operation modes of the system were investigated, the load following and the peak demand compensating. The simulation results reveal that the durability and the cost of the electrochemical energy conversion devices; electrolyser and fuel cell, are the main hurdles which need to be overcome on the path in introducing hydrogen based energy systems like HyLink. Finally, economic optimisation modelling of the small-scale system by best component alignment was performed. It was found that the electrolyser capacity down-rating of 80% in relation to the wind turbine capacity, leads to a minimal system levelised cost. In addition to this, the impact of various wind turbine/electrolyser subsystems and pipeline storage capacities on the fuel cell capacity factor and on the system levelised cost in the load following operation mode was analysed. The outcomes can be useful for further HyLink related energy system planning.

Distributed generation has the potential to reduce the supply-demand gap emerging in New Zealand’s electricity market. Thereby it can improve the overall network efficiency, harness renewable energy resources and reduce the need for upgrading of existing distribution lines. A typical New Zealand rural community consisting of three adjacent farms at Totara Valley near Woodville represents a demonstration site on distributed generation for Massey University and Industrial Research Limited. Local renewable energy resources are being used for the purpose of sustainable development. Alternative micro-scale technologies are being combined to achieve a valuable network support. This paper is an in-depth report on the implementation process of the HyLink system; a system which utilises hydrogen as an energy carrier to balance and transport the fluctuating wind power. The report documents its development from the laboratory stage to commissioning at Totara Valley, which was carried out under direction of Industrial Research Limited. The PEM electrolyser’s performance at different stack temperatures was investigated. It was found that hydrogen production increases at the same voltage with a higher stack temperature. This is due to the improved kinetics of the electrochemical reactions and decreased thermodynamic energy requirement for water electrolysis. The electrolyser efficiency measurement at the half of its maximal power input (247 W) resulted in 65.3%. Thereby the stack temperature attained less than half of the allowed limit of 80°C. The capture of the excess heat by insulation can improve the electrolyser’s efficiency. Pressure tests were performed on the 2 km long pipeline at Totara Valley using hydrogen and natural gas in order to test their permeability. The results were compared with previous studies at Massey University and with data obtained from the industry. The hydrogen permeability was measured to be 5.5 * 10[to the power of]-16 mol m m[to the power of]-2 s[to the power of]-1 Pa[to the power of]-1 for a 2 km MDPE pipe. This is about half the result obtained from previous studies on hydrogen permeability through MDPE at Massey University which was undertaken at room temperature. The reason for this discrepancy is likely to be the lower ambient temperature during the measurement at Totara Valley, which can be supported with the Arrhenius equation. It was furthermore measured that the power loss due to hydrogen diffusion through the pipeline walls during the fuel cell operation is about 1.5 W at the current system operation mode. A techno-economic analysis of the system was undertaken applying the micro-power optimisation software HOMER as a simulation tool. Two operation modes of the system were investigated, the load following and the peak demand compensating. The simulation results reveal that the durability and the cost of the electrochemical energy conversion devices; electrolyser and fuel cell, are the main hurdles which need to be overcome on the path in introducing hydrogen based energy systems like HyLink. Finally, economic optimisation modelling of the small-scale system by best component alignment was performed. It was found that the electrolyser capacity down-rating of 80% in relation to the wind turbine capacity, leads to a minimal system levelised cost. In addition to this, the impact of various wind turbine/electrolyser subsystems and pipeline storage capacities on the fuel cell capacity factor and on the system levelised cost in the load following operation mode was analysed. The outcomes can be useful for further HyLink related energy system planning.

Distributed generation has the potential to reduce the supply-demand gap emerging in New Zealand’s electricity market. Thereby it can improve the overall network efficiency, harness renewable energy resources and reduce the need for upgrading of existing distribution lines. A typical New Zealand rural community consisting of three adjacent farms at Totara Valley near Woodville represents a demonstration site on distributed generation for Massey University and Industrial Research Limited. Local renewable energy resources are being used for the purpose of sustainable development. Alternative micro-scale technologies are being combined to achieve a valuable network support. This paper is an in-depth report on the implementation process of the HyLink system; a system which utilises hydrogen as an energy carrier to balance and transport the fluctuating wind power. The report documents its development from the laboratory stage to commissioning at Totara Valley, which was carried out under direction of Industrial Research Limited. The PEM electrolyser’s performance at different stack temperatures was investigated. It was found that hydrogen production increases at the same voltage with a higher stack temperature. This is due to the improved kinetics of the electrochemical reactions and decreased thermodynamic energy requirement for water electrolysis. The electrolyser efficiency measurement at the half of its maximal power input (247 W) resulted in 65.3%. Thereby the stack temperature attained less than half of the allowed limit of 80°C. The capture of the excess heat by insulation can improve the electrolyser’s efficiency. Pressure tests were performed on the 2 km long pipeline at Totara Valley using hydrogen and natural gas in order to test their permeability. The results were compared with previous studies at Massey University and with data obtained from the industry. The hydrogen permeability was measured to be 5.5 * 10[to the power of]-16 mol m m[to the power of]-2 s[to the power of]-1 Pa[to the power of]-1 for a 2 km MDPE pipe. This is about half the result obtained from previous studies on hydrogen permeability through MDPE at Massey University which was undertaken at room temperature. The reason for this discrepancy is likely to be the lower ambient temperature during the measurement at Totara Valley, which can be supported with the Arrhenius equation. It was furthermore measured that the power loss due to hydrogen diffusion through the pipeline walls during the fuel cell operation is about 1.5 W at the current system operation mode. A techno-economic analysis of the system was undertaken applying the micro-power optimisation software HOMER as a simulation tool. Two operation modes of the system were investigated, the load following and the peak demand compensating. The simulation results reveal that the durability and the cost of the electrochemical energy conversion devices; electrolyser and fuel cell, are the main hurdles which need to be overcome on the path in introducing hydrogen based energy systems like HyLink. Finally, economic optimisation modelling of the small-scale system by best component alignment was performed. It was found that the electrolyser capacity down-rating of 80% in relation to the wind turbine capacity, leads to a minimal system levelised cost. In addition to this, the impact of various wind turbine/electrolyser subsystems and pipeline storage capacities on the fuel cell capacity factor and on the system levelised cost in the load following operation mode was analysed. The outcomes can be useful for further HyLink related energy system planning.

Distributed generation has the potential to reduce the supply-demand gap emerging in New Zealand’s electricity market. Thereby it can improve the overall network efficiency, harness renewable energy resources and reduce the need for upgrading of existing distribution lines. A typical New Zealand rural community consisting of three adjacent farms at Totara Valley near Woodville represents a demonstration site on distributed generation for Massey University and Industrial Research Limited. Local renewable energy resources are being used for the purpose of sustainable development. Alternative micro-scale technologies are being combined to achieve a valuable network support. This paper is an in-depth report on the implementation process of the HyLink system; a system which utilises hydrogen as an energy carrier to balance and transport the fluctuating wind power. The report documents its development from the laboratory stage to commissioning at Totara Valley, which was carried out under direction of Industrial Research Limited. The PEM electrolyser’s performance at different stack temperatures was investigated. It was found that hydrogen production increases at the same voltage with a higher stack temperature. This is due to the improved kinetics of the electrochemical reactions and decreased thermodynamic energy requirement for water electrolysis. The electrolyser efficiency measurement at the half of its maximal power input (247 W) resulted in 65.3%. Thereby the stack temperature attained less than half of the allowed limit of 80°C. The capture of the excess heat by insulation can improve the electrolyser’s efficiency. Pressure tests were performed on the 2 km long pipeline at Totara Valley using hydrogen and natural gas in order to test their permeability. The results were compared with previous studies at Massey University and with data obtained from the industry. The hydrogen permeability was measured to be 5.5 * 10[to the power of]-16 mol m m[to the power of]-2 s[to the power of]-1 Pa[to the power of]-1 for a 2 km MDPE pipe. This is about half the result obtained from previous studies on hydrogen permeability through MDPE at Massey University which was undertaken at room temperature. The reason for this discrepancy is likely to be the lower ambient temperature during the measurement at Totara Valley, which can be supported with the Arrhenius equation. It was furthermore measured that the power loss due to hydrogen diffusion through the pipeline walls during the fuel cell operation is about 1.5 W at the current system operation mode. A techno-economic analysis of the system was undertaken applying the micro-power optimisation software HOMER as a simulation tool. Two operation modes of the system were investigated, the load following and the peak demand compensating. The simulation results reveal that the durability and the cost of the electrochemical energy conversion devices; electrolyser and fuel cell, are the main hurdles which need to be overcome on the path in introducing hydrogen based energy systems like HyLink. Finally, economic optimisation modelling of the small-scale system by best component alignment was performed. It was found that the electrolyser capacity down-rating of 80% in relation to the wind turbine capacity, leads to a minimal system levelised cost. In addition to this, the impact of various wind turbine/electrolyser subsystems and pipeline storage capacities on the fuel cell capacity factor and on the system levelised cost in the load following operation mode was analysed. The outcomes can be useful for further HyLink related energy system planning.

H αυξανόμενη ανάγκη για στροφή της παραγωγής ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας σε βιώσιμες και ανανεώσιμες πηγές έχει οδηγήσει στη ραγδαία ανάπτυξη της αιολικής ενέργειας και στη διείσδυσή της στην αγορά ενέργειας. Η παρούσα εργασία πραγματεύεται ένα αιολικό σύστημα παραγωγής ενέργειας βασισμένο σε σύγχρονη γεννήτρια μόνιμου μαγνήτη. Η συγκεκριμένη μηχανή αποτελεί τη νέα τάση στην αγορά εξ’ αιτίας των σημαντικών πλεονεκτημάτων που προσφέρει, ιδίως αυτό της δυνατότητας για απουσία κιβωτίου ταχυτήτων που οδηγεί το σύστημα σε αυξημένη απόδοση. Στην εργασία αυτή, θα γίνει μια παρουσίαση των χαρακτηριστικών των σύγχρονων αιολικών συστημάτων, θα γίνει η μοντελοποίηση της σύγχρονης γεννήτριας μόνιμου μαγνήτη και θα αναλυθεί η λογική του ελέγχου που ακολουθείται και στηρίζεται στο διανυσματικό έλεγχο προσανατολισμού σε πεδίο. Τέλος, θα γίνει η παρουσίαση και ο σχολιασμός των αποτελεσμάτων του μοντέλου, που αναπτύχθηκε σε περιβάλλον Matlab/Simulink, με την παράλληλη εξαγωγή συμπερασμάτων για την απόκρισή του. / The ongoing increase in electric power demand and the need for sustainable and renewable energy has led wind energy into high rates of growth and penetration to the energy markets. This thesis deals with a permanent magnet synchronous generator based wind power system. This type of machine has become a trend for the markets, due to its specific benefits and, especially, for the absence of gearbox that leads the whole system to higher efficiency. In this thesis, we will discuss the characteristics of a modern wind power system, then, the permanent magnet synchronous generator will be modelled, and the field oriented vector control strategy will be analyzed. Finally, we will present and discuss the outcome of the model that was built in the Matlab/Simulink programme, and we will come into certain conclusions about its response.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The slip synchronous permanent magnet generator (SSG) is a direct-driven direct-grid connected generator developed to alleviate the need for expensive gearboxes and solid-state power converters on wind turbine generators. This study identifies certain key areas where the current wind turbine generator (WTG) system does not comply with the grid code for wind energy facilities (WEF) as specified by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa. The current WTG system does not have a reactive power compensation device. The main focus in this study is the development of an on-load tap changer (OLTC) transformer to control the terminal voltage of the generator. By controlling the terminal voltage of the generator the excitation-mode of the SSG can be changed allowing for control over the reactive power output of the SSG. An OLTC transformer utilising a solid-state assisted mechanical diverter circuit is built and tested to determine the viability of using an OLTC as a reactive power control device. Practical test results show that the OLTC can successfully control the terminal voltage of the SSG without interrupting the load current. The required accuracy regarding power factor control capability was not met due to the large change in reactive power output per tap change operation. A method of using small shunt capacitor banks to provide additional reactive power in between consecutive tap changes is evaluated in simulation. Simulation results show that the addition of these small shunt capacitor banks dramatically improves the reactive power control accuracy. Additionally the grid code specifies that a WEF must have the ability to curtail the active power output during frequency disturbances. The effects of frequency disturbances on the SSG output is simulated and it was found that the SSG will comply with the minimum connection requirements as specified in the grid code. A method of using an IGBT switched DC load to limit the active power output of the WEF is developed and simulated. From the simulation results it was found that the proposed active power curtailment device will meet the minimum power curtailment response time requirements as specified in the grid code. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die glip sinchroon permanente magneet generator (SSG) is ʼn direkte dryf, direkte netwerk gekoppelde wind generator wat ontwikkel is om behoefte aan duur ratkaste en drywing elektroniese omsetters te verlig. Hierdie studie identifiseer sekere sleutel areas waar die huidige wind generator opstelling nie aan die netwerk kode spesifikasie soos uiteengesit deur die Nasionale Energie Reguleerder van Suid-Afrika voldoen nie. Die wind turbine generator stelsel beskik nie oor ʼn reaktiewe drywing beheer meganisme nie. Die belangrikste fokus in hierdie studie is die ontwikkeling van ʼn transformator tap wisselaar wat gebruik sal word om die generator se terminale spanning te beheer. Deur die terminaal spanning te beheer kan die opwekking modus van die generator verander word om dan die uittree reaktiewe drywing te beheer. ʼn Tap wisselaar wat gebruik maak van ʼn drywingelektronies gesteunde meganiese skakelaar is ontwikkel en getoets om die lewensvatbaarheid van die tegniek te ondersoek. Praktiese toets resultate toon dat die tap wisselaar suksesvol beheer oor die generator se terminaal spanning kon uitvoer, sonder om die las-stroom te onderbreuk. Ongelukkig is die vereiste akkuraatheid ten opsigte van die reaktiewe drywing beheer nie gehaal nie. Die rede hiervoor is dat die verandering in uittree reaktiewe drywing baie groot is vir opeenvolgende tap verstellings. ʼn Metode waar twee klein kapasitor banke geskakel word om reaktiewe drywing te lewer, tussen opeenvolgende tap veranderinge, is deur middel van simulasie ondersoek. Die simulasie resultate toon aan dat die toevoeging van die kapasitors ʼn drastiese verbetering in die beheerbaarheid van die uittree reaktiewe drywing het. Verder spesifiseer die netwerk kode ook dat ʼn wind plaas oor die vermoë moet beskik om die aktiewe drywing te verminder tydens ʼn netwerk frekwensie versteuring. Die effek wat ʼn frekwensie versteuring op die SSG het, is deur middel van simulasie ondersoek en daar is gevind dat die SSG aan die netwerk verbinding spesifikasie sal voldoen. ʼn Metode waarby ʼn IGBT geskakelde GS las gebruik word om die aktiewe drywing van die wind generator te beperk is ondersoek en gesimuleer. Vanaf die simulasie resultate is daar gevind dat die drywing beperkings toestel aan die minimum drywing en reaksie tyd spesifikasies soos vereis sal voldoen.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Slip-synchronous permanent magnet generators (SS-PMG) is a recently proposed direct-grid connected direct-drive generator topology for wind power applications. It combines a permanent magnet synchronous generator and a slip permanent magnet generator through a common permanent magnet rotor. In this study the possibility of using an eddy current coupling as the slip permanent magnet generator is investigated. The eddy current coupling has the attractive advantage of completely removing cogging and load torque ripple, which are known problems in the SS-PMG. However, the analytical modelling of the eddy current coupling is complex. Three different topologies are considered for the eddy current coupling. A finite element model is presented for the eddy current coupling. It is shown that 2D finite element methods are inaccurate compared to 3D finite element methods when solving eddy currents in eddy current couplings. In order to test the accuracy of the finite element modelling of a large eddy current coupling a prototype slip rotor is designed to operate with an existing permanent magnet rotor. Two topologies are optimally designed and compared for the slip rotor, using 3D finite element transient simulations. One of the designed topologies is used for the construction of the prototype slip rotor. The manufactured eddy current coupling allows for comparison between the 3D finite element simulations and measured results, which shows an excellent correlation. Based on observations of the 3D finite element simulations an analytical approximation of the eddy current coupling is proposed for low slip frequencies. It is shown that the analytical model is very dependent on the accurate modelling of the eddy current paths in the slip rotor, something that is difficult to determine accurately. An approximation is made, again based on 3D finite element simulations, which allows the accurate modelling of the current paths for different axial lengths. The analytical model is used for rapid design optimisation of both the slip rotor and permanent magnet rotor of the eddy current coupling, for two different eddy current coupling topologies. The optimised eddy current coupling design with the best results is compared to existing slip permanent magnet generator technologies. The eddy current coupling is shown to have the potential to be a feasible alternative to existing slip permanent magnet generator topologies for application in slip-synchronous permanent magnet generators. It has excellent torque versus slip behaviour, and no cogging or load torque ripple. However, the manufacturing and assembly process of the proposed slip rotor has to be improved for the eddy current coupling to be a realistic competitor to the existing slip permanent magnet generator technologies. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die glip-sinkroon permanente magneet generator is ʼn direk-aangedrewe wind generator wat direk aan die krag netwerk gekoppel kan word. Dit kombineer ʼn permanente magneet sinkroon generator en ʼn permanente magneet glip generator deur middel van ʼn gemeenskaplike permanente magneet rotor. In hierdie studie word die moontlike gebruik van ʼn werwelstroom skakel as plaasvervanger vir die permanente magneet glip generator ondersoek. Die werwelstroom skakel het geen vertandings of las draaimoment rimpeling nie, wat bekende probleme vir die glip-sinkroon permanente magneet generator is. Die analitiese modellering van die werwelstroom skakel is egter nie eenvoudig nie. Daar word drie verskillende topologieë oorweeg vir die werwelstroom skakel. ʼn Eindige element model word ontwikkel vir die werwelstroom skakel. Dit word bevind dat 2D eindige element analise onvoldoende is vir die berekening van werwelstrome in die werwelstroom skakel, en gevolglik word 3D eindige element modelle gebruik in hierdie studie. Om die akkuraatheid van die eindige element model te beproef word ʼn prototipe glip rotor optimaal ontwerp deur middel van eindige element analise. Die glip rotor vorm saam met ʼn bestaande permanente magneet rotor ʼn werwelstroom skakel. Vir hierdie ontwerp word twee werwelstroom skakel topologieë gebruik, en met mekaar vergelyk. Die topologie wat beter presteer word gebruik vir die vervaardiging van die glip rotor. ʼn Vergelyking van die gemete waardes van die vervaardigde werwelstroom skakel en die resultate van die 3D eindige element simulasies dui daarop dat die 3D eindige element modellering ʼn baie goeie voorspelling van die werklikheid is. ʼn Analitiese model vir die werwelstroom skakel onder lae glip toestande is ontwikkel deur gebruik te maak van observasies uit die 3D eindige element simulasies. Die analitiese model is baie afhangklik van die modellering van die werwelstrome se stroompaaie, iets wat moeilik is om akkuraat te bepaal. ʼn Benadering word gemaak wat die akkurate modulering van die stroompaaie moontlik maak vir verskillende aksiale lengtes. Die analitiese model word dan gebruik vir vinnige optimering van die werwelstroom skakel se ontwerp vir twee verskillende werwelstroom skakel topologieë. Die geoptimeerde ontwerp wat die beste resultate toon word vergelyk met bestaande permanente magneet glip generators. Dit word gewys dat die werwelstroom skakel die potensiaal het om ʼn uitvoerbare alternatief tot die permanente magneet glip generator te wees, vir gebruik in glip-sinkroon permanente magneet generators. Die werwelstroom skakel toon baie goeie draaimoment teenoor glip gedrag, en het geen vertandings of las draaimoment rimpeling nie. Voordat die werwelstroom generator ʼn realistiese kompeteerder teenoor die bestaande glip-sinkroon tegnologie is, moet daar verbeterde vervaardigings maniere gevind word vir die voorgestelde glip rotor.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:27:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:56:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Tese (Doutoramento) / IPEN/T / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

The goal of this project is to compare different machine learning algorithms ability to predict wind power output 48 hours in advance from earlier power data and meteorological wind speed predictions. Three different models were tested, two autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models one with exogenous regressors one without and one simple LSTM neural net model. It was found that the ARIMA model with exogenous regressors was the most accurate while also beingrelatively easy to interpret and at 1h 45min 32s had a comparatively short training time. The LSTM was less accurate, harder to interpretand took 14h 3min 5s to train. However the LSTM only took 32.7s to create predictions once the model was trained compared to the 33min13.7s it took for the ARIMA model with exogenous regressors to deploy.Because of this fast deployment time the LSTM might be preferable in certain situations. The ARIMA model without exogenous regressors was significantly less accurate than the other two without significantly improving on the other ARIMA model in any way

Submitted by Pieter de Jong (pieterj@ufba.br) on 2017-09-06T00:37:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DE JONG, Pieter - Forecasting, integration, and storage of renewable energy generation in the Northeast of Brazil.pdf: 4104557 bytes, checksum: 286729716f48be77c37ddb6f4cf2c93d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vanessa Reis (vanessa.jamile@ufba.br) on 2017-09-06T10:26:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DE JONG, Pieter - Forecasting, integration, and storage of renewable energy generation in the Northeast of Brazil.pdf: 4104557 bytes, checksum: 286729716f48be77c37ddb6f4cf2c93d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-06T10:26:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DE JONG, Pieter - Forecasting, integration, and storage of renewable energy generation in the Northeast of Brazil.pdf: 4104557 bytes, checksum: 286729716f48be77c37ddb6f4cf2c93d (MD5) / CAPES e FAPESB. / As a result of global climate change, during the coming decades less rainfall and higher temperatures are projected for the Brazilian Northeast (NE). Consequently these regional climatic changes could severely impact hydroelectric generation in the NE as well as influence solar and wind power potential. The ongoing drought in the Brazilian NE region has caused hydroelectric generation to decline substantially during the last 5 years and in 2016 hydroelectricity only supplied 25% of the NE’s total demand. In contrast, wind power supplied 30% of demand and is expected to generate 55-60% of the NE’s electricity supply by 2020. Therefore, this paper is focused on both short term forecasting and long-term projections of renewable energy generation and resource availability. It also explores the economic, environmental and technical feasibility of renewable energy integration in the NE region of Brazil. First, the long-term impacts of climate change on the NE region’s hydroelectric and wind energy production are analysed. Particular attention is paid to the long-term projections of annual rainfall and streamflow in the São Francisco basin which could decline by approximately 47% and 80%, respectively, by 2050. On the other hand, wind energy potential is projected to increase substantially during the same period. This thesis also estimates the economic, social, and environmental viability of renewable and non-renewable generation technologies in Brazil. The Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) including externalities is calculated for several different case study power plants, the majority of which are located in the Brazilian NE. It was found that wind power becomes the cheapest generation technology in the NE region, once all externality and transmission line costs are taken into consideration. The LCOE for the entire Northeast’s generation matrix is calculated for various configurations, including scenarios in which hydroelectric generation is restricted due to drought conditions. It was concluded that a generation mix in which wind power replaces all fossil fuel generation by 2020, could feasibly reduce the overall LCOE in the region by approximately 46% and substantially decrease CO2eq emissions. Two different methods are used to examine the limits of integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation technologies into a power system with a large proportion of hydroelectric capacity. In the first method existing wind generation data from 16 wind farms is extrapolated in time and space, while the second method uses a numerical weather prediction model to simulate future wind energy generation in the NE region. Considering the minimum generation requirements of the São Francisco’s hydroelectric dams, the maximum wind energy penetration in the NE region is estimated to be approximately 50% before significant amounts of energy would need to be curtailed or exported to other Brazilian regions. Finally, this thesis reviews additional literature on energy storage and the impact of large scale variable renewable energy integration on grid stability and power quality. It was found that there are several existing technologies such as power factor and voltage regulation devices that can resolve these issues. / Como consequência da mudança climática global, nas próximas décadas menos precipitação e temperaturas mais altas são projetados para Nordeste (NE) do Brasil. Consequentemente, essas mudanças climáticas regionais podem afetar severamente a geração hidrelétrica no NE, bem como influenciar o potencial de energia solar e eólica. A seca atual nessa região do Brasil fez com que a geração hidrelétrica caísse substancialmente durante os últimos 5 anos e em 2016, as usinas hidrelétricas apenas forneceram 25% da demanda total do NE. Em contraste, a energia eólica forneceu 30% da demanda e deverá gerar 55-60% do fornecimento de energia elétrica do NE até 2020. Portanto, este trabalho está focado tanto na previsão a curto quanto projeções a longo prazo da geração de energia renovável e disponibilidade de recursos. Ele também explora a viabilidade econômica, ambiental e técnica da integração de energias renováveis na região NE. Primeiramente, os impactos de longo prazo das mudanças climáticas na produção hidrelétrica e eólica da região NE são analisados. Especial atenção é dada às projeções de longo prazo de precipitação anual e fluxo na bacia do São Francisco, que podem diminuir em aproximadamente 47% e 80%, respectivamente, até 2050. Por outro lado, prevê-se que o potencial da energia eólica aumente substancialmente durante o mesmo período. Esta tese também estima a viabilidade econômica, social e ambiental das tecnologias de geração renováveis e não-renováveis no Brasil. O custo nivelado de energia elétrica (LCOE), incluindo externalidades, é calculado para diversas usinas de estudo de caso, a maioria localizada no NE. Verificou-se que, a energia eólica se torna a tecnologia de geração mais barata na região NE, uma vez que todos os custos de externalidades e de linhas de transmissão são levados em consideração. O LCOE para a matriz de geração do Nordeste é calculado para várias configurações, incluindo cenários em que a geração hidrelétrica é restrita devido às condições de seca. Concluiu-se que, uma mistura de geração em que a energia eólica substitui toda a geração de combustíveis fósseis até 2020, poderia reduzir o LCOE na região em aproximadamente 46% e diminuir substancialmente as emissões de CO2eq. Dois métodos diferentes são usados para examinar os limites da integração de altas penetrações de tecnologias de geração renovável variáveis em um sistema de energia com uma grande proporção de capacidade hidrelétrica. No primeiro método, dados de geração eólica existentes de 16 parques eólicos são extrapolados no tempo e no espaço, enquanto o segundo método utiliza um modelo de previsão numérica de tempo para simular a futura geração de energia eólica na região NE. Considerando as exigências mínimas de geração das hidrelétricas do São Francisco, estima-se que a penetração máxima de energia eólica na região NE seja de aproximadamente 50% antes que quantidades significativas de energia precisem ser desperdiçadas ou exportadas para outras regiões brasileiras. Finalmente, esta tese examina literatura adicional sobre armazenamento de energia e o impacto da integração de energia renovável variável em larga escala na estabilidade da rede elétrica e na qualidade da energia. Verificou-se que existem várias tecnologias existentes, como dispositivos de regulação de fator de potência e tensão que podem resolver estes problemas.