The research paper explores the value of information content incorporated in the first-time going concern opinion from the perspective of investors. The signaling effects of the auditors’ opinion with going concern remark issued to financially distressed companies are of a great value in case the auditor statements deliver new information content which has not been incorporated in the previously disclosed financial information. Otherwise a going concern audit opinion remains not relevant for the purpose of investors’ decision making. If the going concern audit opinion adds new information content, we gain an ability to detect a stock market reaction to the relevant public announcement. The paper examines the Australian stock market reaction to public announcements of going concern audit opinion in a short term period for the sample of the 29 first-time going concern listed companies during the 2007 to 2009 years observation period. High sample criteria are determined in order to avoid contamination effects of other price sensitive information. The impact of both the preliminary financial report and the final annual report is examined by means of the parametric and non-parametric tests aligned with the event study methodology. Consistent with previous studies in Australia, no significant financial market reaction to the final going concern audit opinion announcements inherent to the Australian environment has been found. We document that the more negative impact on the market reaction is caused by the preliminary financial report rather than the final report, which contains an audit opinion note. Correspondently, the audit opinions with going concern qualification do not add new information content for the Australian stock market participants, who base their expectations on the previously disclosed financial information.

The aim of this paper is to test and further improve fundamental analysis models developed by Piotroski (2000) and Rados and Lovric (2009). The improvement seeks to reverse the information in the previous models by taking relative importance and strength of both positive and negative fundamental signals into consideration. The theoretical framework used includes the efficient market hypothesis, fundamental analysis and investing in high book-to-market companies. The Piotroski model, two Rados’s and Lovric’s models and two variations of our model were tested on a portfolio consisting of high book-to-market companies from the Stockholm Stock Exchange during the period 1999-2008. The results show that our EDA Model was the most successful at identifying short selling candidates, as EDA Low portfolio rendered market adjusted returns of -19% on average. Moreover, our EDC model was the best performing at identifying buy-and-hold candidates, with an average annual market adjusted return of 31,5%. The success of our models implies that the market is not using the information captured by them fully and in a timely manner.

This thesis examines the impact of earnings announcements on the stock return performance. Most literature regarding this topic is related to the US market. We follow 40 of the largest and most liquid stocks on the virtual OMX Nordic Exchange from 2010 to 2012. In this research paper, we present the theoretical framework that gives an overview of the possible research areas, and provide empirical evidence of the repercussion of the earnings announcements on stock returns. We use the event study methodology to conduct this thesis. It is a standard approach established by Fama et al. (1969). It has been used in a variety of researches for gauging the effect of new information on the market value of a security. As we expected good news and bad news to have different reactions on the stock return performances, we have split our data in good news and bad news. To differentiate good news from bad news, we measure analysts’ forecast error. It consists in subtracting the earnings per share (EPS) of the analysts’ consensus forecast from the reported EPS of the same year. The analysis is composed of three different subdivisions: the study of the abnormal return during an event window of 17 days, the cumulative abnormal return during this event window, stock price behavior from growth stocks and from value stocks. Our findings show that stock behavior gradually responds to the earnings announcement. The stock reactions that appear within pre-event window may indicate information leakage. Our results describe most average abnormal returns as statistically insignificant during the event window. Earnings information has a lower impact on the stock market. We also find that the effect of positive earnings surprise on stock price lasts longer than that of negative earnings surprise. Stocks from OMX Nordic 40 index have a stable reaction on negative earnings surprise. As a conclusion, we highlight three points. Earning interim and annual earning information disclosure were unable to influence the stock market effectively, and therefore could not fully reflect the changes on the stock price. Investors can get the abnormal returns by using this earnings information during the whole event window.

A large body of literature has explored that investor sentiment and customer satisfaction have been viewed as important metrics to evaluate asset prices, little attention has been paid to whether investor sentiment influence the impact of customer satisfaction on stock returns. This paper examines whether customer-based portfolios can create abnormal returns by employing different risk-adjusted models in different sentiment states. This study finds that portfolio composed of firms with better customer satisfaction can continuously beat the benchmark index and create abnormal returns when adopting different risk-adjusted models. Furthermore, portfolio with better customer satisfaction can significantly outperform the market even in pessimistic and neutral investor sentiment state. This is because of higher CS firms can create stable business cash flows, alleviate customer complaints and strengthen customer loyalty, which will create insurance-like protection for firms in pessimistic investor state, which results in significant abnormal returns even in pessimistic investor state. These results suggest that customer-based metrics are valuable information that should be included in financial models.

People with insight are known as insiders and they often have access to information which have not yet been publiched. Previous research show that insiders can use their information leverage to assimilate abnormal returns. The purpose of this study is to examine whether insiders in a company can generate abnormal returns by trading shares in their own company. A quantitative methodology has ben practiced in order to achieve the desired result. Data has been collected through Finansinspektionen about the insider trades on the Swedish stock market. We have further used an event study to calculate both the expected and also the abnormal return in order to answer our research issue. The results given from this study show significant abnormal returns when insiders trade with shares in their own company. / Aktier medför ett placeringsalternativ med en viss risk och ger investerare möjligheten att generera en avkastning på sin portfölj. Personer som anses ha tillgång till förtrolig samt kurspåverkande information inom ett företag betecknas som insynspersoner. Tidigare forskning visar att insynspersoner kan utnyttja detta informationsövertag i sin egen vinning för att tillgodogöra sig överavkastning. Syftet med denna studie är att granska huruvida insynspersoner kan generera en viss överavkastning gentemot andra aktörer på marknaden. I denna forskning har en kvantitativ metod tillämpats med en deduktiv ansats. Via Finansinspektionens insynslista kan vi detektera transaktioner genomförda av insiders för att sedan, med användandet av en eventstudie, besvara forskningsfrågan, om insynspersoner kan generera en överavkastning. Hypotesprövningar ligger sedan till grund för att bedöma huruvida resultatet påvisar signifikans. Utifrån denna studie kan vi dra slutsatsen om att nollhypotesen bör förkastas, således menar vi att det förekommer en signifikant överavkastning i samband med att insynspersoner bedriver handel på värdepappersmarknaden.

Researchers criticize predominant expected return models for being imprecise and based on fundamentally flawed assumptions. This dissertation evaluates Implied Cost of Capital, CAPM and the Three-Factor model abilities to estimate returns. We study each models expected return association to realized return and test for abnormal returns. Our sample covers the period 2000 to 2012 and includes 2916 US firms. We find that Implied Cost of Capital has a stronger association with realized returns than CAPM and the Three-Factor model. Implied Cost of Capital also has lower abnormal returns not accounted for by expected returns. Our results suggest that we can replace CAPM and the Three-Factor model with Implied Cost of Capital.

abstract: I examine the degree to which stockholders' aggregate gain/loss frame of reference in the equity of a given firm affects their response to the firm's quarterly earnings announcements. Contrary to predictions from rational expectations models of trade (Shackelford and Verrecchia 2002), I find that abnormal trading volume around earnings announcements is larger (smaller) when stockholders are in an aggregate unrealized capital gain (loss) position. This relation is stronger among seller-initiated trades and weaker in December, consistent with the cognitive bias referred to as the disposition effect (Shefrin and Statman 1985). Sensitivity analysis reveals that the relation is stronger among less sophisticated investors and for firms with weaker information environments, consistent with the behavioral explanation. I also present evidence on the consequences of this disposition effect. First, stockholders' aggregate unrealized capital gain position moderates the degree to which information-related determinants of trade (e.g. unexpected earnings, firm size, and forecast dispersion) affect abnormal announcement-window trading volume. Second, stockholders' aggregate unrealized capital gains position is associated with announcement-window abnormal returns, consistent with the disposition effect reducing the market's ability to efficiently incorporate earnings news into price. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Accountancy 2012

Submitted by Amanda Pinheiro (amandapin@uol.com.br) on 2010-06-30T17:35:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Retornos anormais em F&A_Amanda Pinheiro.pdf: 235217 bytes, checksum: bef9fc06ec589d5207ae4af647c9f340 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro(gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2010-06-30T19:58:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Retornos anormais em F&A_Amanda Pinheiro.pdf: 235217 bytes, checksum: bef9fc06ec589d5207ae4af647c9f340 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-07-02T19:16:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Retornos anormais em F&A_Amanda Pinheiro.pdf: 235217 bytes, checksum: bef9fc06ec589d5207ae4af647c9f340 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-21 / The objective of this work is to analyze the abnormal returns of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) in Brazil and to verify if they can be explained by firm characteristics. This research provides contribution to the literature in two ways. First, it analyzes the longest period in the research of M&As in Brazil (1997-2009). Furthermore, this research analyzes the behavior of abnormal returns on M&As in different sub-periods, allowing to evaluate whether there have been changes over time. The results indicate that the abnormal returns of both firms are positive and statistically significant, and that the abnormal returns of acquired firms are larger than those of the acquirer firms. The results have changed over time. From 1997 to 2004, the abnormal returns of target firms are positive and the abnormal returns of acquirers are negative. However, from 2005 to 2009, the abnormal returns of both firms are positive. The target firms abnormal returns are positively related to the market value of both firms and negatively related to Tobin's Q and ROA of the acquirer. Moreover, in the most recent period, the abnormal returns of target firms are also positively related to their ROA and leverage. / O objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar os retornos anormais de Fusões e Aquisições (F&As) no Brasil e verificar se os mesmos podem ser explicados por características das empresas. Essa pesquisa traz contribuição à literatura de duas formas. Primeiro, analisa o período mais longo em pesquisa de F&As no Brasil (1997 a 2009). Além disso, essa pesquisa analisa o comportamento dos retornos anormais em F&As em diferentes sub-períodos, permitindo avaliar se houve alterações ao longo do tempo. Os resultados indicam que os retornos anormais de ambas as empresas são positivos e estatisticamente significativos, sendo que os da firma adquirida são maiores do que os da adquirente. Os resultados mudam ao longo do tempo. De 1997 a 2004, o retorno anormal das empresas alvo é positivo e o retorno anormal das empresas adquirentes é negativo. Por sua vez, de 2005 e 2009, os retornos anormais de ambas as empresas são positivos. O retorno anormal da empresa alvo é positivamente relacionado ao valor de mercado de ambas as firmas e negativamente relacionado ao Q de Tobin e ROA da empresa adquirente. Além disso, no período mais recente, o retorno anormal das empresas alvo também é positivamente relacionado à alavancagem e ROA das mesmas.

On the 8th of November, 2016, Prime Minister Modi declared all Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes in circulation, constituting 86% of the currency, to be illegal tender for transactions. All the currency had to be deposited into bank accounts, and new notes would be issued. Amounts deposited over Rs. 250,000 (approx. USD 4000) would face tax scrutiny. The reasoning given for this was to curb corruption, terrorism financing and counterfeiting. This led to a scramble in the economy, giving rise to many dubious schemes for evading the consequences of this policy. There was a significant loss in income for people, however, they were willing to bear the short term pain, in the promise of medium to long term gain. Economists and political thinkers are divided on the merits of this matter. We tested the varied effect of demonetization on the Indian economy by examining the returns of the National Stock Exchange using the Event Study Methodology in the immediate period following demonetization. We found a statistically significant decline in consumption sectors. This was largely driven by decline in the ability to spend. Public Sector Banks (PSBs) saw huge positive abnormal returns, while the Private Banks recorded a lagged negative effect. This may be because the PSBs were riddled with NPAs and in dire need of liquidity, or because of the market’s differentiated perception of corruption within these portfolios. We also find State-Owned Companies to benefit from the announcement.

A presente pesquisa foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de avaliar a capacidade dos investidores em interpretar os dados emanados pela Contabilidade; mais especificamente, analisou sua habilidade em compreender informações relativas ao lucro. De forma complementar, buscou analisar a existência de oportunidades de obtenção de ganhos econômicos por intermédio da adoção de estratégias de investimento com base em informações relativas aos accruals. A amostra compreendeu empresas não financeiras para as quais o banco de dados Economática dispunha de informações relativas ao período de 1995 a 2010. Foram descartadas da amostra as empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo, companhias com dados faltantes (missings), bem como observações com comportamento distinto dos demais (outliers). Por conta do baixo impacto dos números contábeis no mercado de capitais brasileiro detectado por Lopes (2005) esperava-se uma baixa presença da anomalia dos accruals no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Isso porque, países em que a importância dos lucros para os preços de mercado é reduzida, a precificação de ações seria menos influenciada pela fixação funcional no lucro final reportado o que, por sua vez, provocaria interferências na anomalia dos accruals (EL MEHDI, 2011). Para avaliar se a persistência dos componentes dos accruals era significativamente inferior aos componentes de fluxos de caixa, estimou-se uma regressão com dados em painel, na qual foi possível comprovar a hipótese de que os ajustes do regime de competência exibem uma menor persistência, com um parâmetro padronizado e estatisticamente significativo na regressão estimada de 0,43, enquanto os componentes de fluxos de caixa apresentaram um parâmetro de 0,53. A falta de significância estatística entre os accruals correntes e retornos anormais futuros das companhias estudadas, bem como, da ausência de retornos anormais significativos de estratégias baseadas em accruals demonstraram que uma baixa qualidade dos lucros correntes - devido a um alto nível de accruals - não resultou em retornos anormais negativos no período posterior. As proxies relativas a adoção das normas IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) e ao nível de investimentos - incluídas no modelo de regressão - compreendem parte das contribuições deste tralho, ainda que não se tenha identificado significância estatística para tais variáveis. Isso porque, por intermédio do teste-t, foi explicitada a ocorrência de uma relação entre o nível de acrruals e o crescimento do imobilizado. Tal resultado sugere indícios de que ambas as variáveis captariam o mesmo efeito, qual seja, a atividade investimento por parte das firmas (WEI; XIE, 2007; ZACH, 2007). Os resultados coadunam com as evidências detectadas por Cupertino (2010), ampliando os indícios sobre o comportamento do mercado frente a informações emanadas pela Contabilidade em mercados emergentes, além de explicitar a ausência da denominada anomalia dos accruals no mercado de capitais brasileiro. / This research was developed to evaluate investors\' ability to interpret Accounting data, more specifically, to examine its ability to effectively understand earnings information. As a complement, we have analyzed the existence of economic opportunities to obtain abnormal returns through investment strategies based on accruals. The sample was composed by nonfinancial companies with available information in Economatica database from 1995 to 2010. We\'ve excluded firms with negative equity, missing data, as well as outliers. In countries in which profits importance to market price is lower, pricing of shares would be less influenced by the bottom line functional attachment, which in turn, would decrease the Accruals Anomaly (El MEHDI, 2011). Since Accounting numbers in Brazilian stock market have demonstrated low impact (LOPES, 2005) we previously expect a lower presence of the Accrual Anomaly. To assess whether persistence of accruals was significantly lower than cash flow component, we\'ve estimated a panel data regression, in which it was possible to prove our first hypothesis, that accrual\'s exhibit a lower persistence with a 0.43 estimated parameter, while the cash flows have presented a 0.53 parameter, both significantly different from 0 at the 0.05 level. The lack of statistical significance between current accruals and future abnormal returns among studied companies and the absence of significant abnormal returns in strategies based on accruals have demonstrated that a low quality of current earnings - due to a high level of accruals - did not result in a negative abnormal return, thereafter. Adding proxies to IFRS adoption and investment level can be considered as an additional contribution. Although these variables have shown no statically significance, we\'ve found a relationship, explicit by T-test, between accruals level and inventory growth, providing evidences that both variables would capture the same effect, namely, investments activity by firms (WEIK; XIE, 2007; ZACH, 2007). The results are consistent with Cupertino (2010) research, have increased evidences about market behavior to Accounting information in emerging markets, and explicit the absence of the Accrual Anomaly in Brazilian stock market.