Nowadays, there is a growing demand for personalization and the "one-size-fits-all" approach for hypermedia systems is no longer applicable. Adaptive hypermedia (AH) systems adapt their behavior to the needs of individual users. However due to the complexity of their authoring process and the different skills required from authors, only few of them have been proposed. These last years, numerous efforts have been put to propose assistance for authors to create their own AH. However, as explained in this thesis some problems remain.In this thesis, we tackle two particular problems. A first problem concerns the integration of authors' materials (information and user profile) into models of existing systems. Thus, allowing authors to directly reuse existing reasoning and execute it on their materials. We propose a semi-automatic merging/specialization process to integrate an author's model into a model of an existing system. Our objectives are twofold: to create a support for defining mappings between elements in a model of existing models and elements in the author's model and to help creating consistent and relevant models integrating the two models and taking into account the mappings between them.A second problem concerns the adaptation specification, which is famously the hardest part of the authoring process of adaptive web-based systems. We propose an EAP framework with three main contributions: a set of elementary adaptation patterns for the adaptive navigation, a typology organizing the proposed elementary adaptation patterns and a semi-automatic process to generate adaptation strategies based on the use and the combination of patterns. Our objectives are to define easily adaptation strategies at a high level by combining simple ones. Furthermore, we have studied the expressivity of some existing solutions allowing the specification of adaptation versus the EAP framework, discussing thus, based on this study, the pros and cons of various decisions in terms of the ideal way of defining an adaptation language. We propose a unified vision of adaptation and adaptation languages, based on the analysis of these solutions and our framework, as well as a study of the adaptation expressivity and the interoperability between them, resulting in an adaptation typology. The unified vision and adaptation typology are not limited to the solutions analysed, and can be used to compare and extend other approaches in the future. Besides these theoretical qualitative studies, this thesis also describes implementations and experimental evaluations of our contributions in an e-learning application.

Global warming induced by the emissions of greenhouse gases is one of the most important global environmental issues facing the world today. Using the building simulation techniques, this research investigates the interaction and relationship between global warming and built environment, particularly for the air-conditioned office buildings. The adaptation potential of various building designs is also evaluated. Based on the descriptive statistics method, the Pearson Product Moment Correlation and the regression analysis method, ten years of historical hourly climatic data for Australia are first analyzed. The distribution patterns of key weather parameters between a Test Reference Year (TRY) and multiple years (MYs), and between relatively cold and hot years are also compared. The possible cross-correlation between several different weather variables are then assessed and established. These findings form a useful basis and provide insights for the development of future weather models under "hot" global warming conditions and the explanation of building performance at different locations. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models and findings from historic climatic data analysis, an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming is presented. This is achieved by imposing the future temperature projection from the global climate model on top of the historically observed weather data. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather conditions, this method allows either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method to be used. Therefore it represents a more comprehensive and holistic approach than previous one that have been used to convert the available weather data and climatic information to a format suitable for building simulation study. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is also presented. The performance of a representative office building is then examined in details under the five weather scenarios (present, 2030 Low, 2030 High, 2070 Low and 2070 High) and over all eight capital cities in Australia. The sample building used for this study is an air conditioned, square shape, ten storey office tower with a basement carpark, which is recommended by the Australian Building Codes Board to represent the typical office building found in the central business district (CBD) of the capital cities or major regional centres in Australia. Through building computer simulations, the increased cooling loads imposed by potential global warming is quantified. The probable indoor temperature increases and overheating problems due to heat load exceeding the capacity of installed air-conditioning systems are also presented. It is shown that in terms of the whole building indoor thermal environment, existing buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warming of the 2030 year Low and High scenarios projections and the 2070 year Low scenario projection. For the 2070 year High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities will suffer from the overheating problem. To improve the building thermal comfort to an acceptable standard (ie, less than 5% of occupied hours having indoor temperature over 25°), a further increase of 4-10% of building cooling load is required. The sensitivity of different office building zoning (i.e. zone at different floors and/or with different window orientation) to the potential global warming is also investigated. It is shown that for most cities, the ground floor, and the South or Core zone would be most sensitive to the external temperature change and has the highest tendency to having the overheating problem. By linking building energy use to CO2 emissions, the possible increase of CO2 emissions due to increased building energy use is also estimated. The adaptation potential of different designs of building physical properties to global warming is then examined and compared. The parametric factors studied include the building insulation levels, window to wall ratio, window glass types, and internal load density. It is found that overall, an office building with a lower insulation level, smaller window to wall ratio and/or a glass type with lower shading coefficient, and lower internal load density will have the effect of lowering building cooling load and total energy use, and therefore have a better potential to adapt to the warming external climate. This phenomenon can be linked to the nature of internal-load dominated office-building characteristics. Based on these findings, a series of design and adaptation strategies have been proposed and evaluated.

The purpose of the paper is to examine how water scarcity affects women in Gakuto and strategies they use to adapt to water scarcity. Water is a basic necessity and a requirement for all according to United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Botswana is one of the countries faced with water scarcity. The key geographical features of low rainfalls and semi-arid conditions contribute to the scarcity of water resources in the country. The paper highlights challenges faced by women in Gakuto village and strategies they use to cope with water scarcity. A conceptual framework has been used to discuss the relevant concepts that underpin the research. These are water scarcity, adaptation and coping, vulnerability. Data was collected during a site visit through semi structured interviews, field observations and secondary data sources from the government reports and publications. Using semi structured interviews, 23 women from 12 households were interviewed to outline challenges they face in accessing water and sanitation in the village. A traditional leader was also involved to outline the situation of water access in the village. Results show that over 80% of participants travel more than 1km from their households to access water. According to World Health Organisation, in Africa, women walk an average of 10 km per day collecting water. Data was coded and analysed to outline an overview of the various coping and adaptation strategies that participants employ at household level. Majority of them use rainwater, change water routine, access water through social networking and reuse at household level.

The Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) in Laos has received attention of foreign investors due to high hydropower development potential and low per capita electricity consumption. The NNRB is rapidly developing due to its hydropower generation potentials while water demands will increase for agricultural and domestic purposes due to population increase and land-use changes. Water availability conditions will be affected with the increasing water demand and climate change may worsen the water availability conditions. Climate is often defined as the weather averaged over time whereas weather describes atmospheric conditions at a particular place and time in terms of air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and rainfall. On regional scale, climate change impact assessment is crucial for water resource planning, management and decision making. First part of this study, reliable estimation of climatic variables is performed under climate change. Second part assess the changes in water resources regimes and sustainability conditions of agricultural and domestic water user sectors under climate change for “do nothing” option that are critical for strategic planning and to minimize the negative impacts. Third part assesses the long-term climate change trends, water allocation challenges and appropriate adaptation measures to minimize watershed impacts to achieve sustainability and long-term management goals. The major findings of this study shows (1) wetter and warmer climates especially in the latter part of the century indicating less water availability, (2) sustainability in meeting the water demands for agriculture and domestic use is affected under “do nothing” option, and (3) watershed scale adaptation measures improve the (1) hydropower generation, (2) sustainability conditions in agricultural and domestic water user sectors, and (3) flow regimes.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第24858号 / 地環博第241号 / 新制||地環||47(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 星野, 敏, 准教授 鬼塚, 健一郎, 准教授 落合, 知帆 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

Tourism and food are two sectors that have major impact on the environment, including the amount of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) they emit. The potential of the tourism sector to mitigate greenhouse gases through adaptation strategies of food supply and consumption at breakfast buffets in hotels is the major field of investigation in the current study.   This thesis contributes an empirical analysis that uses knowledge from fieldwork in a touristic area in Sweden. The empirical work of this study consists of two steps. First, measuring the (un)sustainability of breakfast buffets in hotels, using the FOODSCALE method, determining potential pathways toward a less greenhouse gas emission intensive food supply and second, to distinguish tourist interest to adopt toward a more climate friendly diet away from home. As food consumption patterns of tourists are considered as critical contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, changes toward a more environmental friendly diet are urgently needed helping substantially in mitigating emissions of GHGs. However, this field has been sparsely explored which made it an interesting and important area for current research in tourism studies.  The results and analysis showed that sustainable food consumption patterns of tourists can be encouraged through breakfast buffets. However, this is depending on a couple of determinants which have to be applied and fulfilled by breakfast buffets in hotels. Tourists interest to adapt toward a more climate friendly diet while being on holidays is depending on their eating habits and their interest in environmental sustainability issues. With the help of the 3 identified guest groups it can be determined that the majority of tourists' is willing to give up carbon-intensive eating habits and change their behavior when being on holidays. Hotels can act as role models, promoting more sustainable behaviour through sustainable food offers at breakfast buffets. The idea of hotels acting as role models focuses on encouraging beneficial decision-making, such as adopting food consumption patterns toward a carbon-neutral diet.

Globalūs pasauliniai pokyčiai skatina visuomenės domėjimąsi ne tik tarpkultūriniais skirtumais, bet ir skirtingų kultūrų tarpusavio sąveikos klausimais. Šio darbo aktualumą lėmė vis didėjantis Lietuvos gyventojų domėjimasis ispanų kultūra. Svarbu ištirti, kaip ispanai adaptuojasi lietuvių kultūroje ir jos visuomeniniame gyvenime, atskleidžiant jų adaptacijos Lietuvoje ypatumus. Išanalizavus mokslinę literatūrą, prieita prie išvados, kad adaptacijos sėkmingumą lemia tokie vidiniai veiksniai kaip individualūs ir asmeniniai individo skirtumai, ir tokie išoriniai veiksniai kaip individo gyvenimo patirtis ir pasirengimas. Atskleidžiant vienos ar kitos strategijos pasireiškimą (Kasatkina), pažymima, kad pagrindiniai veiksniai, nulemiantys vienos ar kitos strategijos pasirinkimą yra etninio tapatumo išlaikymas ir pasitenkinimas pasiektu statusu. Lyginant ispanų ir lietuvių kultūras remiantis Hofstede, Inglehart ir Lewis kultūrų lyginimo dimensijomis, paaiškėjo, kad ispanai yra panašūs į lietuvius šeimos svarbumo kriterijumi: abi kultūros šeimą nurodo kaip vertybę. Padaryta analizė leidžia atskleisti dviejų kultūrų skirtumus. Esminiai skirtumai yra bendravimo būdas, laiko ir erdvės suvokimas, kalbų struktūros. Atlikus kokybinį tyrimą, analizuojant interviu metu surinktą medžiagą, prieita prie išvados, kad ispanų kultūrinės adaptacijos sėkmingumas nepriklauso nuo jų gyvenimo trukmės Lietuvoje. Manytina, kad adaptacijos sėkmingumą veikiau nulemia vidiniai ispanų kultūros atstovų... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Due to increased interest of Spanish language and culture in Lithuania over the last few years, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the Spanish sojourners adaptation in Lithuania. Furthermore, it is important to find out the main obstacles of Spanish culture representatives while communicating with locals, exploring the influence on their adaptation process. On a basis of qualitative research (9 semi – structured interviews) study concerning Spanish Cultural Adaptation in Lithuania has been carried out. The main assumption is that Spanish cultural adaptation is influenced by such internal factors as individual motivation to adapt in a host society, aim of arrival, motivation to learn Lithuanian language and communicate with Lithuanians. The external factors which influence Spanish Adaptation in Lithuania are the difference between climate, acceptance of the host society and barriers of communications with Lithuanians. The research has shown that firstly, Spanish are satisfied with the current reached status in Lithuania. The main reason of that is their fulfilment with occupied positions in a new country. Secondly, all of them maintain their personal identity. Thirdly, Spanish who live more than 10 years in Lithuania are more likely to associate themselves with Lithuanians depending on a place of their living, in Spain they consider to be Spanish and in Lithuania they are Lithuanians. Taking into account, that successful adaptation is defined as the individual... [to full text]

Aujourd'hui, l’approche « one-size-fits-all » pour les hypermédias n'est plus applicable. Les Hypermédias Adaptatifs (AH) proposent d’adapter leur comportement aux besoins des utilisateurs. Cependant, en raison de la complexité de leur processus de création et des différentes compétences requises par les auteurs, peu d'entre eux ont été développés. Ces dernières années, de nombreux efforts ont été faits pour proposer d’aider les auteurs à créer leurs propres AH. mais certains problèmes demeurent non résolus.Nous nous sommes intéressées à deux problèmes particuliers.Le premier problème concerne l'intégration des ressources des auteurs dans des systèmes existants. Cela permet aux auteurs de réutiliser directement les adaptations prévues dans un système et de les exécuter sur leurs ressources. Pour répondre à ce problème, nous proposons un processus semi-automatique de fusion / spécialisation pour intégrer le modèle d'un auteur dans un modèle d'un système existant. Notre objectif est double: créer un support pour la définition des correspondances entre les éléments d’un modèle existant et ceux du modèle de l'auteur, et aider à créer un modèle cohérent intégrant les deux modèles et les correspondances entre eux. De cette façon, nous permettons aux auteurs d’intégrer leur modèle complet sans aucune transformation ni perte d’information. Le deuxième problème concerne la spécification de l'adaptation, qui est notoirement le processus le plus difficile dans la création des hypermédias adaptatifs. Nous proposons un framework EAP avec trois contributions principales : un ensemble de 22 patrons d'adaptation élémentaires pour l’adaptation de navigation, une typologie organisant les différents patrons d'adaptation élémentaires et un processus pour générer des stratégies d'adaptation basées sur l'utilisation et la combinaison semi-automatique des patrons d’adaptation élémentaires. Nos objectifs sont de permettre de définir facilement des stratégies d'adaptation à un niveau d’abstraction élevé en combinant des stratégies d’adaptation simples. Nous avons comparé l'expressivité du framework EAP à des solutions existantes, identifiant ainsi les avantages et les inconvénients des différentes décisions nécessaires à la définition d’un langage d'adaptation idéal. Nous proposons aussi une vision unifiée de l'adaptation et des langages d'adaptation, basée sur l’analyse de ces solutions et de notre framework, ainsi que sur l'étude de l'expressivité de l'adaptation et de l'interopérabilité entre les différentes solutions analysées. La vision unifiée sur l'adaptation n’est pas limitée aux solutions analysées. Elle peut être utilisée pour comparer et étendre d'autres approches.Outre ces études théoriques qualitatives, cette thèse décrit également des implémentations et des évaluations expérimentales. / Nowadays, there is a growing demand for personalization and the “one-size-fits-all” approach for hypermedia systems is no longer applicable. Adaptive hypermedia (AH) systems adapt their behavior to the needs of individual users. However due to the complexity of their authoring process and the different skills required from authors, only few of them have been proposed. These last years, numerous efforts have been put to propose assistance for authors to create their own AH. However, as explained in this thesis some problems remain.In this thesis, we tackle two particular problems. A first problem concerns the integration of authors’ materials (information and user profile) into models of existing systems. Thus, allowing authors to directly reuse existing reasoning and execute it on their materials. We propose a semi-automatic merging/specialization process to integrate an author’s model into a model of an existing system. Our objectives are twofold: to create a support for defining mappings between elements in a model of existing models and elements in the author’s model and to help creating consistent and relevant models integrating the two models and taking into account the mappings between them.A second problem concerns the adaptation specification, which is famously the hardest part of the authoring process of adaptive web-based systems. We propose an EAP framework with three main contributions: a set of elementary adaptation patterns for the adaptive navigation, a typology organizing the proposed elementary adaptation patterns and a semi-automatic process to generate adaptation strategies based on the use and the combination of patterns. Our objectives are to define easily adaptation strategies at a high level by combining simple ones. Furthermore, we have studied the expressivity of some existing solutions allowing the specification of adaptation versus the EAP framework, discussing thus, based on this study, the pros and cons of various decisions in terms of the ideal way of defining an adaptation language. We propose a unified vision of adaptation and adaptation languages, based on the analysis of these solutions and our framework, as well as a study of the adaptation expressivity and the interoperability between them, resulting in an adaptation typology. The unified vision and adaptation typology are not limited to the solutions analysed, and can be used to compare and extend other approaches in the future. Besides these theoretical qualitative studies, this thesis also describes implementations and experimental evaluations of our contributions in an e-learning application.

The Tropical Andes continue to suffer the most radical climatic changes in South America. These changes generate alterations in its ecosystems, and therefore affect local populations, whose livelihoods are dependent on its diversity and functioning. This is particularly true for rural populations who rely on agriculture as their primary source of food and income. Although the biophysical pathways through which climate change can affect these populations have received extensive scientific attention, it is urgent to study the socioeconomic pathways, at scales that allow the development of vulnerability reduction strategies at the local level. The present study is part of the INCA project (International Network on Climate Change), which is a research network that analyses the local strategies of farmers under a changing climate in the Tropical Andes (Lindner et al. 2017). To contribute to this goal this study investigates climate-related vulnerability and climate change adaptation at local scales. First, the current vulnerability of farm household systems (FHSs) to climate-related hazards is assessed. This is done by looking at determinants that are internal (adaptive capital) and external (climate-related hazards) to the FHSs. Based on the recurrence of internal factors, FHSs are categorized into different groups. These groups are validated by observing the effects of climatic events that are specific to each group. The result of the analysis are different typologies or archetypes of climate-related vulnerability. The analysis adopts an archetype approach and develops methods based on multivariate analysis techniques. Second, the study analyzes the impacts of climate change, expressed as an increase in temperature conditions, at local levels. For this purpose, a multi-agent systems model of land-use/cover change is used, specifically the software package MPMAS. The model is the first attempt at a detailed representation of agents-environment interactions in the framework of climate change in the Tropical Andes. The simulation outcomes report on the adaptation of different farm household groups and the effects of climate change on the agricultural landscape. The research was conducted in selected communities in the Central Andes of Peru. The active integration of empirical data with secondary literature in the application of the research methods provided a suitable way to analyze the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of FHSs in the Tropical Andes in a comprehensive manner. Moreover, the use of participatory assessment techniques to obtain empirical data provided an additional perspective for the analysis and improved the understanding of the problem, contributing to deriving analytical generalizations that could hardly be obtained using only quantitative methods. The research results for the study area identify five archetypes of farm household’s vulnerability to climate-related hazards. For each archetype, distinct vulnerability-creating mechanisms are observed. For example, most vulnerable farm households have a very limited amount of adaptive capital: low levels of off-farm employment, few farm animals, small agricultural area, mostly rainfed, and low use of agro-ecological zones. In addition, they occupy predominantly the higher, and therefore less-productive, agro-ecological zones of the watershed. The analysis also makes it possible to derive spatial and thematic priorities for vulnerability reduction that are specific to each archetype. The modeling approach applied proved to be suitable for simulating the impacts of climate change at the local level. In particular, regarding the explicit simulation of FHSs, the productive landscape, and the way in which they interrelate and change in response to an increase in temperature conditions. The incorporation of heterogeneity and dynamics in the modeled population, the use of optimization techniques to simulate decision making, and the multi-periodicity of the model produce non-linearity, uncertainty and trajectory dependence. In addition, the use of vulnerability archetypes is a novel and robust way of creating a heterogeneous population for the initialization of the model. Simulation results show dynamic changes in the agricultural landscape as temperature increases. The area allocated to corn and olluco expands, while potato and oat areas diminish. Investment in tree plantations is largely unaffected. The effects of rising temperatures on farm households’ welfare show a general persistence of poverty in the study area. However, the effect on FHSs income is predominantly positive, allowing some to improve their food poverty position. The FHSs that manage to benefit from an increase in temperature have, on average, larger agricultural and forest areas, a greater amount of savings in the form of animals, hire more salaried labor and practice more mechanized agriculture than the FHSs whose situation did not improve. The results show that, in addition to the effects of climate change on crop productivity, there are other factors influencing land use decisions that deserve more attention in the analysis of vulnerability and climate change impacts. A better understanding of heterogeneity in climate vulnerability and climate impacts is an important step in meeting this demand.

Air traffic networks are essential to today’s global society. They are the fastest means of transporting physical goods and people and are a major contributor to the globalisation of the world’s economy. This increasing reliance requires these networks to have high resilience; however, previous events show that they can be susceptible to natural hazards. We assess two strategies to improve the resilience of air traffic networks and show an adaptive reconfiguration strategy is superior to a permanent re-routing solution. We find that, if traffic networks have fixed air routes, the geographical location of airports leaves them vulnerable to spatial hazard.