This is a two-part study dealing with the curriculum, school leaving examinations and History as a school subject in England and South Africa. Part One is a developmental study. Developments in the curriculum of both countries since the Second World War are traced. In England this period is characterised by a shift from a somewhat laissez faire approach of the authorities at Whitehall to the curriculum of individual schools to the prescription that seems inherent in the National Curriculum. The outstanding development in South Africa during this period has been the introduction of a system of differentiated education. In contrast to minor developments in the South African school leaving examination system, England has witnessed the consolidation of the two-tier GCE and CSE system into a single examination at 16+, the GCSE. In discussing developments in History as a school subject, one is struck by the growth of the "new history" in England (this is described in some detail) against the relative lack of development (at "official" syllabus level) in South Africa where the subject remains rooted in the "traditional", chronological, content-based approach. Part Two of this study compares the current situation in England and South Africa at both the macro (ie. curriculum and school leaving examination systems) and micro (ie. History as a subject in the curriculum) levels. At the macro level the curriculum and school leaving examination systems in both England and South Africa are contrasted and one notes an increasing trend towards centralization in both countries. At the micro level use is made of "official" syllabuses and examination papers to contrast the "new history" approach in England with the "traditional" approach in South Africa. In the conclusion two broad possibilities for curriculum reform in South Africa are considered: Broad reform across the curriculum on the one hand and reforms in History on the other

Dissertation (PhD (For))--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future. To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3 gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world, including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations. The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of forecasting methodologies. The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood, based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery. Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should prepare itself for the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van die studie is om 'n nuwe metode te ontwikkel waarmee 'n vooruitskatting van die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting gemaak kan word. Die metode word dan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks toegepas om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die Suid-Afrikaanse resultate word voorts gebruik om 'n nasionale Bosingenieurswese strategie voor te stel vir die bedryf. Dit is nodig om die verlede te verstaan, voor die toekoms vooruitgeskat kan word. Om dié rede is die historiese ontwikkeling van bosingenieurswese bespreek, in beide 'n internasionale, sowel as 'n Suid Afrikaanse konteks. Die huidige status quo van Bosingenieurswese in Suid Afrika is vasgestel deur 'n nasionale opname waarby plantasies van groter as 200 ha ingesluit is. Die resultate van die opname word weergegee in Hoofstuk 2. As gevolg van die belangrikheid van beide globalisering en tegnologie, is 'n literatuur studie ingesluit in Hoofstuk 3 oor die relevansie van tegnologie in die besigheidswêreld van vandag, asook en 'n bespreking van verskeie vooruitskattingstegnieke wat in die studie gebruik kan word. Hierdie vooruitskattinge is 'n kombinasie van tradisionele vooruitskattings tegnieke, tegnologie vooruitskattingstegnieke en tegnieke wat gebruik word vir strategiese beplanning. Verskeie benaderinge tot finansiële analise is ook bespreek. Dit sluit tradisionele masjienkoste berekening in. Die rede hiervoor is om vas te stel watter metode die mees geskikte sou wees om verskeie Bosingenieurswese sisteme met mekaar te vergelyk. Die kern van die studie lê in die kombinasie van hierdie metodes om 'n bruikbare metode te ontwerp om die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting vooruit te skat. Hierdie ontwerp word in Hoofstuk 4 bespreek. Die metode word in Hoofstuk 5 beproef, deur die toepassing daarvan op die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf. Internasionale bosingenieurswese tendense is vasgestel deur middel van 'n Delphi studie. Hierdie vooruitskatting maak gebruik van 'n paneel van kundiges wat hulle siening oor die toekoms uitspreek deur verskeie rondtes van vrae wat aan hulle gestel word. Die studie evalueer hierna 14 Bosingenieurswese sisteme vir denne saaghout, denne pulphout en Eucalyptus pulphout, gebaseer op 'n scenario-analise van die toekoms. Die scenario matriks is gefundeer op die toekomstige koste van arbeid teenoor die toekomstige koste van masjinerie. As 'n finale stap word voorgestel hoe die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf kan voorberei om die toekoms tegemoet te gaan.

Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables. Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively. Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined, this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South Africa.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explore how forecasting techniques can be combined in linear programming (LP) as a tool to optimise the parameters of forecasting methods in order to ensure sufficient capacity of logistic infrastructure exist for future growth. This study will use greenfield and brownfield projects from Sasol, a petrochemical company from South Africa, to test the methodology on. The methodology followed in the study was to firstly look at previous literature studies on logistical infrastructure and how to create sufficient capacity. Secondly, understandings of supply chain planning principles in general as well as supply chain planning in context of Sasol were investigated. Thirdly, different forecasting methods like; qualitative include judgemental, life cycle, Delphi method, market research etc. and quantitative methods including time series and causal methodologies had been investigated. Fourthly, decision making tools to incorporate multiple forecasts were investigated to understand why Sasol decided to use i2. Fifthly, the current capital project approach in Sasol had been investigated to fully understand where room for improvements would be possible. Finally the theory from the study was applied on two different projects in Sasol, one greenfield and one brownfield project. The results found that by using sound supply chain planning methodologies, sound supply chain design principles and multiple forecasts being combined by using LP decision making tools a better decision can be made with regards to logistical infrastructure investment as well as ensuring sufficient logistical infrastructure capacity. The two case studies have shown that this approach is flexible enough, apart from a few minor changes and can be adopted for both scenarios and that great results can be achieved. Logistical infrastructure could be optimised due to collaboration and the overall costs and performance of a supply chain improved. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek hoe lineêre programmering ( LP ), as n hulpmiddel, gebruik kan word om vooruitskattingstegnieke te kombineer om sodoende die vooruitskattingsmetodes te optimaliseer en te verseker dat voldoende kapasiteit van logistieke infrastruktuur bestaan vir toekomstige groei. Hierdie studie se metodes sal getoets word op groenveld- en bruinveldprojekte van Sasol , 'n petrochemiese maatskappy van Suid –Afrika. Die metode gevolg tydens die studie, was eerstens om te kyk na vorige literatuurstudies oor logistieke infrastruktuur en hoe om voldoende kapasiteit te skep. Tweedens, om ‘n breë oorsig van die beginsels van voorsieningsketting-beplanning te bekom sowel as voorsieningsketting-beplanning in die konteks van Sasol te ondersoek. Derdens, verskillende vootuitskattingsmetodes soos kwalitatiewe metodes (insluitend veroordelende-, lewensiklus- en Delphi-metode en marknavorsing) en kwantitatiewe metodes (insluitend die tydreeks- en oorsaaklike metodes) is geondersoek. In die vierde plek is besluitnemingshulpmiddels, wat verskeie vooruitskattings kombineer, geondersoek om te verstaan waarom Sasol besluit het om i2 aan te koop. In die vyfde plek is die metode van Sasol se kapitaalprojekte geondersoek om te verstaan of daar nie moontlik ruimte vir verbeterings sou wees nie. Laastens is die studie se metode op twee projekte van Sasol toegepas, een groenveld- en een bruinveldprojek. In die studie is gevind dat beter besluite geneem kan word aangaande beleggings in logistieke infrastruktuur en om te verskere daar is voldoende logistieke infrastruktuur kapasiteit - deur gebruik te maak van optimale metodes in voorsieningsketting-beplanning en voorsieningskettingontwerp. Die twee gevallestudies het getoon dat hierdie benadering buigsaam genoeg is, afgesien van 'n paar klein veranderinge, om vir beide moontlikhede gebruik te kan word en goeie resultate te behaal. Deur die samewerking van verskeie besigheidseenhede kon logistieke infrastruktuur geoptimaliseer word terwyl die kostes en algehele prestasie van voorsieningsketting verbeter kon word.

Global climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon, influencing weather and climate patterns. However, the greatest cause for concern at present is the rate at which climate change is currently occurring. Natural shifts in climate take place over a period of many thousands of years, not in a matter of decades, which is what is occurring at present. In South Africa, climate change is projected to have different regional effects, which in turn could impact on the components of the terrestrial hydrological system, such as land use. The alteration of the catchment upstream of the estuaries could affect the quantity and quality of streamflows entering estuaries. This could impact negatively upon estuaries, thereby reducing the considerable biodiversity in estuaries and the ecosystems goods and services provided by estuaries which would reduce the significant revenue provided by these systems. The research undertaken in this project investigates the possible effects of climate change, and changes in upstream land use on freshwater inflows into estuarine ecosystems using a daily hydrological model. Owing to the regionality of climate change in South Africa 10 estuaries in different climatic regions were selected for this investigation. Climate output from five GCMs under the SRES A2 climate scenario for the present (1971 – 1990), intermediate (2046 – 2065) and distant future (2081 – 2100) periods was used as input for the selected climate input. Results of these simulations show that the eastern regions of South Africa may experience considerable increases in the occurrence of high intensity rainfall events into the future. This could influence the abiotic factors of the system which may impact upon the biotic components of estuaries, as these systems are physically controlled. In the western regions the difference of the magnitude of flows between present and projected future is minimal. However, projected increases in temperature could influence evaporation, thereby decreasing future flows into estuaries. This, in some instances, may result in systems turning hyper-saline, which could have far reaching implications, both ecologically and economically. Additionally, an investigation, as to the possible effects of irrigation and climate change combined on flows entering and breaching events of the Klein estuary, was undertaken. Hence, simulations including and excluding irrigation routines have been completed. Results from these simulations illustrate the detrimental effects of irrigation into the future periods, especially during 1 in 10 low flow years, when flows into the Klein estuary cease completely. Breaching event results illustrate that climate change could have a negative impact on this estuarine system as the number of events decreases into distant future period. The addition of agricultural abstractions decreases the number of breaching events markedly. Therefore, the link between the marine and terrestrial hydrological systems is lost which could, if this estuary is isolated from the ocean for an extended period of time, become extremely detrimental to the ecological integrity of the Klein estuary. This highlights the value and vulnerabilities of estuarine ecosystems in South Africa to future climate and upstream land use changes. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

ABI has a sophisticated and effective distribution fleet which delivers canned and bottled non alcoholic beverages to 12000 wholesale and retail outlets in the Durban Metropole and to 46000 outlets nationally. Delivery is normally executed once per week, 48 hours after a separate order is taken by an account manager. In the more rural or "emerging market" areas traditional retail outlets such as supermarkets and superettes are scarce and reliance is made on spaza and house shops. Cash flow and storage space is limited. The sales and distribution calls are expensive, relative to the size order that the spaza would place. Spaza shop owners rely on distributors or collect from wholesalers. These outlets often run out of stock. Sales revenue is thus not maximized. Outlet development is marginal. The writer embarked on a research project to develop a sustainable and cost effective Sales and Distribution model in order to address these constraints in the Emerging Market territories of ABI Durban. Traditional theory turns to channel distribution as a means to effectively reaching an entire retail market. Levels are thus added to the distribution channel. The research however showed that service levels are sometimes compromised. The model that was developed returns ABI to DSD (direct service delivery) via specially designed vehicles and combines the function of "preseller" and "delivery merchandiser" on a dedicated route. Although a marginal increase in cost per case has been experienced, deliveries are direct to store, at least twice per week. Sales growth in these routes have been in excess of 85% while the total Umlazi area grows at 13%. Customer service levels, as surveyed, are exceptional. Although the model was specifically designed by ABI Durban for use in Durban, the concept has been adopted as a best practice and is being "rolled out" across the business. By the end of 2005, 10% of ABl's fleet nationally will function as MOTD (Merchandiser Order Taker Driver) routes. Additional vehicles have been ordered for delivery during the period July 2005 to September 2005 in order for this to be achieved. This model has assisted ABI in achieving its goal of maximizing DSD and lifting service levels to its customers (retailers). Revenue has increased significantly along with volume in these areas. Invariably MOTD acts as a significant barrier to competitor entry in those geographic areas where it is utilized. The Merchandiser Order Taker Driver (MOTD) model is successful and has potential for wider use, even in more developed markets. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2005.

M.Comm. / The objectives of this research can be summarised as follows: To integrate the customer research technique of attribute analysis with the volume planning process. To determine whether attribute analysis, is a useful and reliable tool for determining purchase behavior in the small sedan segment of the motor industry. To determine a customers perception of total product value through attribute analysis. To analyse the influence of price in the purchase decision. To determine whether a market share theorem that weights the perceived value of a vehicle, relative to its competitors perceived value is a reliable predictor of market penetration. To identify the determinant attributes in the decision making process of purchasing a small sedan vehicle. The research component of this dissertation is limited to the small sedan passenger segment of South African car market. While it is recognised that the small sedan segment is only one sub-sector of the vehicle market, it is felt that the study will provide a fair reflection of how the approach could be utilised in other sectors.

The prediction of a company's financial health is of critical importance to a variety of stakeholders ranging from auditors, creditors, customers, employees, financial institutions and investors through to management. There has been considerable research in this field, ranging from the univariate dichotomous approach of Beaver (1966) to the multivariate multi-state approaches of Lau (1987) and Ward (1994). All of the South African studies namely, Strebel and Andrews (1977), Daya (1977), De La Rey (1981), Clarke et al (1991) and Court et al (1999), and even, Lukhwareni's (2005) four separate models, were dichotomous in nature providing either a "Healthy" or a "Failed" state; or a "Winner" or "Loser" as in the latter case. Notwithstanding, all of these models would be classified as first stage, initial screening models. This study has focused on following a two stage approach to identifying (first stage) and analysing (second stage) the States of Health in a company. It has not adopted the rigid "Healthy" or "Failed" dichotomous methodology. For the first stage, three-state models were developed classifying a company as Healthy, Intermittent or Distressed. Both three year and five year Profit after Tax (PAT) averages for Real Earnings Growth (REG) calculations were used to determine the superior definition for the Intermittent state; with the latter coming out as superior. Models were developed for the current year (Yn), one (Yn-1), two (Yn-2) and three years (Yn-3) forward using a Test sample of twenty companies and their predictive accuracy determined by using a Holdout sample of twenty-two companies and all their data points or years of information. The statistical methods employed were a Naïve model using the simple Shareholder Value Added (SVA) ratio, CHAID and MDA, with the latter providing very disappointing results - for the Yn year (five year average), the Test sample results were 100%, 95% and 95%, respectively; with the Holdout sample results being 81.3%, 83.8% and 52.5%, respectively. The Yn-1 to Yn-3 models produced very good results for the Test sample but somewhat disappointing Holdout sample results. The best two Yn models namely, the Naïve and the CHAID models, were modified so as to enable a comparison with the notable, dichotomous De La Rey (1981) model. As such, three different approaches were adopted and in all cases, both the modified Naïve (100%, 81.3%, 100%) and the modified CHAID (100%, 85.9%, 98%) produced superior results to the De La Rey model (84.8%, 62.6%, 75.3%). For the second stage, a Financial Risk Analysis Model (FRAM) using ratios in the categories of Growth, Performance Analysis, Investment Analysis and Financial Status were used to provide underlying information or clues, independent of the first stage model, so as to enable the stakeholder to establish a more meaningful picture of the company. This would pave the way for the appropriate strategy and course of action to be followed, to take the company to the next level; whether it be taking the company out of a Distressed State (D) or further improving on its Healthy status (H). / Business Management / D. BL.

The main objective of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of accurately and precisely fore- casting the number of both national and provincial bene ciaries of social security grants in South Africa, using simple autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The series of the monthly number of bene ciaries of the old age, child support, foster care and disability grants from April 2004 to March 2010 were used to achieve the objectives of the thesis. The conclusions from analysing the series were that: (1) ARIMA models for forecasting are province and grant-type spe- ci c; (2) for some grants, national forecasts obtained by aggregating provincial ARIMA forecasts are more accurate and precise than those obtained by ARIMA modelling national series; and (3) for some grants, forecasts obtained by modelling the latest half of the series were more accurate and precise than those obtained from modelling the full series. / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)

The prediction of a company's financial health is of critical importance to a variety of stakeholders ranging from auditors, creditors, customers, employees, financial institutions and investors through to management. There has been considerable research in this field, ranging from the univariate dichotomous approach of Beaver (1966) to the multivariate multi-state approaches of Lau (1987) and Ward (1994). All of the South African studies namely, Strebel and Andrews (1977), Daya (1977), De La Rey (1981), Clarke et al (1991) and Court et al (1999), and even, Lukhwareni's (2005) four separate models, were dichotomous in nature providing either a "Healthy" or a "Failed" state; or a "Winner" or "Loser" as in the latter case. Notwithstanding, all of these models would be classified as first stage, initial screening models. This study has focused on following a two stage approach to identifying (first stage) and analysing (second stage) the States of Health in a company. It has not adopted the rigid "Healthy" or "Failed" dichotomous methodology. For the first stage, three-state models were developed classifying a company as Healthy, Intermittent or Distressed. Both three year and five year Profit after Tax (PAT) averages for Real Earnings Growth (REG) calculations were used to determine the superior definition for the Intermittent state; with the latter coming out as superior. Models were developed for the current year (Yn), one (Yn-1), two (Yn-2) and three years (Yn-3) forward using a Test sample of twenty companies and their predictive accuracy determined by using a Holdout sample of twenty-two companies and all their data points or years of information. The statistical methods employed were a Naïve model using the simple Shareholder Value Added (SVA) ratio, CHAID and MDA, with the latter providing very disappointing results - for the Yn year (five year average), the Test sample results were 100%, 95% and 95%, respectively; with the Holdout sample results being 81.3%, 83.8% and 52.5%, respectively. The Yn-1 to Yn-3 models produced very good results for the Test sample but somewhat disappointing Holdout sample results. The best two Yn models namely, the Naïve and the CHAID models, were modified so as to enable a comparison with the notable, dichotomous De La Rey (1981) model. As such, three different approaches were adopted and in all cases, both the modified Naïve (100%, 81.3%, 100%) and the modified CHAID (100%, 85.9%, 98%) produced superior results to the De La Rey model (84.8%, 62.6%, 75.3%). For the second stage, a Financial Risk Analysis Model (FRAM) using ratios in the categories of Growth, Performance Analysis, Investment Analysis and Financial Status were used to provide underlying information or clues, independent of the first stage model, so as to enable the stakeholder to establish a more meaningful picture of the company. This would pave the way for the appropriate strategy and course of action to be followed, to take the company to the next level; whether it be taking the company out of a Distressed State (D) or further improving on its Healthy status (H). / Business Management / D. BL.