A cana-de-açúcar é uma cultura de grande expressão em vários estados brasileiros. Para que a mesma apresente bons níveis de produtividade, quer seja nas áreas tradicionais de cultivo ou nas áreas em expansão, é de extrema importância que haja a seleção e alocação das diferentes variedades de acordo com os ambientes de produção, os quais envolvem aspectos relacionados à qualidade dos solos e aos níveis esperados de produtividade em função disso. Apesar da importância do ambiente de produção para o manejo varietal e operacional do canavial, este não considera aspectos relacionados ao clima dos locais de cultivo. Sendo assim, o presente estudo buscou desenvolver um procedimento para a obtenção de classes de ambientes de produção para a cultura da cana-de-açúcar sob o enfoque climático, por meio do uso de modelos agrometeorológicos de estimativa das produtividades potencial e atingível, e da eficiência climática resultante dessas. A partir da utilização do modelo da Zona Agroecológica (modelo FAO), associado à penalização da produtividade pelo déficit hídrico, foi calculada a produtividade potencial e a produtividade atingível da cultura da cana-de-açúcar em 178 localidades do estado de São Paulo. Por meio do quociente entre essas produtividades, estimou-se a eficiência climática (). Tanto as variáveis climáticas como as produtividades foram espacializadas por meio da técnica de regressão em que foram utilizadas coordenadas geográficas integradas. Foi calculado o balanço hídrico climatológico normal, na escala mensal, para a caracterização climática do Estado, e o balanço hídrico seqüencial, na escala decendial, para a penalização da produtividade potencial pelo déficit hídrico e obtenção da produtividade atingível. O balanço hídrico foi determinado de acordo com o método proposto por Thornthwaite e Mather (1955) e a evapotranspiração de referência foi calculada utilizando-se a equação de Priestley e Taylor (1972). Essas simulações foram realizadas considerando-se períodos de 30 anos de dados, de 1973 a 2003, disponibilizados pelo SIGRH/DAEE-SP. Foram consideradas cinco épocas de plantio para a cana planta (fevereiro, março, julho, setembro e outubro) e três ciclos de maturação para a cana-soca (precoce, média e tardia). Foi inserido no modelo agrometeorológico empregado um fator de penalização das produtividades potencial e atingível pela ocorrência de baixas temperaturas do ar. De acordo com os mapas, foi possível propor uma classificação dos ambientes com base na produtividade atingível, a qual variou de 50 até 100 t ha-1 e com base nos valores obtidos de eficiência climática, que variaram de 0,35 a 0,65. Conclui-se com isso, que o modelo agrometeorológico apresentou desempenho satisfatório, possibilitando juntamente com o emprego de um sistema de informações geográficas, a obtenção das classes climáticas dos ambientes de produção para a cultura da cana-de-açúcar, que poderão subsidiar o planejamento das usinas quanto aos manejos varietal e operacional dos canaviais. / Sugarcane is a crop of great expression in several Brazilian states. For obtaining success, with high yield levels, in both traditional and expanding areas, it is very important that the selection and allocation of different varieties be done according to the production environments, which normally involve aspects related to the soil quality and the expected yield levels associated to that. Even considering the importance of the production environment concept for the varietal and operational management in the sugarcane mills, it does not consider aspects related to the climate conditions of the production areas. Based on that, the present study aimed to develop a procedure for obtaining the classification of the sugarcane production environments according to the climatic conditions, by the use of agrometeorological models for estimating potential (PP) and attainable (PA) yields, and the resulting climatic efficiency (). This study used the association of the FAO Agro-ecological Zone model and the water deficit depletion model respectively for estimating PP and PA for sugarcane crop in 178 locations in the state of São Paulo. The was calculated by the ratio between PA and PP. All the variables related to the climate and to the yield were spacialized by the multiple linear regression technique, which uses the geographic coordinates, altitude and their integration as independent variables. The monthly normal water balance was used to characterize the climate and the water availability conditions of the state, while the 10-day serial water balance was used to characterize the water deficit during the crop cycle for each year of the historical series. The water balance was determined by the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method and the reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Priestley and Taylor (1972) equation. The sugarcane crop yield were simulated for a 31-year period, from 1973 to 2003, with data obtained from SIGRH/DAEE-SP. For such simulations five planting dates were considered for plant crop (February, March, July, September and October) and three cycles of maturation for ratoon crop (early, medium and late). A low temperature depletion factor was introduced in the yield models for considering the negative effect of frosts on sugarcane crop. According to the maps generated, it was possible to propose a production environment classification based on PA, which ranged from 50 to 100 t ha-1, and also based on , which varied between 0.35 and 0.65. These data when applied to a geographical information system (GIS) allowed to classify the production environments not only by using soil data but also using the classes defined by the climatic conditions, giving subsides for the crop planning, variety management and operational activities.

O efeito das variáveis meteorológicas na maturação da cana-de-açúcar é um processo ainda pouco conhecido, apesar de apresentar inúmeros impactos à qualidade da matéria-prima para a indústria sucro-energética brasileira. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos das variáveis meteorológicas no processo de maturação de cultivares de cana-de-açúcar e gerar modelos capazes de descrevê-lo. O experimento foi realizado em área pertencente ao Grupo Raízen (ex-Cosan), em Piracicaba, SP, no período de março de 2002 a outubro de 2003. Foram avaliadas oito cultivares de cana-de-açúcar em 32 amostragens realizadas de março a outubro de 2003. Variáveis relacionadas à qualidade de matéria-prima da cana-de-açúcar (ATR, AR, ART, Pureza, Brix, Pol%cana, fibra e umidade) e variáveis meteorológicas (temperatura do ar, precipitação, radiação solar, entre outras) foram submetidas à análise estatística descritiva e multivariada, visando melhorar a compreensão do processo de maturação e suas relações com as condições ambientais. As variáveis meteorológicas de melhor correlação com as variáveis de qualidade da cana-de-açúcar foram utilizadas na elaboração de modelos descritivos do processo de maturação, os quais foram agrupados em precoces, médios e tardios, de acordo com o padrão de maturação das cultivares estudadas. A avaliação dos modelos foi realizada pela análise dos resíduos (presença de outliers, homogeneidade das variâncias e normalidade dos resíduos) e pela comparação com dados independentes (erros médios, R2, índice de concordância de Willmott e índice de confiança de Camargo). Independente do padrão de maturação (precoce, médias e tardias), os modelos de melhor desempenho foram aqueles que descreveram as variáveis ATR, Brix, Pol%cana e umidade, com valores de R2 ajustado acima de 0,9 (p significativo a 1%) e ótimo desempenho segundo índice C de Camargo (acima de 0,85), quando testados com dados independentes. O modelo de fibra apresentou os menores valores de R2 ajustado (em torno de 0,65) e não normalidade dos resíduos. Contudo, sua avaliação com dados independentes levou à obtenção de valores de índice C acima de 0,8. Os modelos gerados mostram que a precipitação pode ser utilizada como a principal variável na previsão da qualidade da matéria-prima da cana-de-açúcar e que seu uso pode ser estendido a outras áreas além daquela para onde foi inicialmente gerado. / The effect of meteorological variables on sugarcane ripening is a not very well known process in spite of the several impacts of that on the quality of the raw material for the sugarcane industry. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of meteorological variables on sugarcane ripening and based on that to establish models able to describe this process. The study was conducted in an area of the Raízen Group (former Cosan), in Piracicaba, state of São Paulo, Brazil, from March 2002 (planting) to October 2003. Eight sugarcane cultivars were evaluated by analyzing 32 samples collected from March to October 2003. Variables related to the quality of the raw material (ATR, AR, ART, Purity, Brix, Pol%cane, fiber and moisture) and weather (air temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, among others) were submitted to descriptive and multivariate statistical analysis in order to better understand the sugarcane ripening process and the relationship between this process and environmental conditions. The meteorological variables of best fit were used for elaborating the models to describe the ripening process, which were grouped into early, middle and late, according to the maturity pattern of the studied cultivars. The evaluation of the models was based on the analysis of residuals (presence of outliers, homogeneity of variances and normality of residuals) and on the comparison between estimated and independent data (mean errors, R2, agreement index of Willmott and confidence index of Camargo). Regardless of the pattern of sugarcane maturation (early, middle and late), the models that presented the best performance were for ATR, Brix, Pol% cane and humidity variables, with adjusted R2 values above 0.9 (p significant at 1%) and excellent performance, with C index above 0.85, when evaluated with independent data. The fiber model had the lowest adjusted R2 values (around 0.65) and problems in the distribution of its residuals (non-normality); however, when it was tested with independent data an acceptable performance was found, with C index above 0.8. The generated models showed that precipitation can be used as the main variable for predicting sugarcane quality and that its use can be extended to other areas than the one where it was originally generated.

Submitted by Erika Demachki (erikademachki@gmail.com) on 2014-09-24T18:52:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 TATIANE MELO DE LIMA - Dissertação - 2011.pdf: 3966680 bytes, checksum: 8590b2d298fcc9267ba23ef02a5c1987 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Jaqueline Silva (jtas29@gmail.com) on 2014-09-24T18:58:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 TATIANE MELO DE LIMA - Dissertação - 2011.pdf: 3966680 bytes, checksum: 8590b2d298fcc9267ba23ef02a5c1987 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-24T18:58:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 TATIANE MELO DE LIMA - Dissertação - 2011.pdf: 3966680 bytes, checksum: 8590b2d298fcc9267ba23ef02a5c1987 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The peanut is the fourth most widely grown oilseed crop in the world, occupying about 22 million hectares. The cultivation of groundnut is a great alternative for family farmers to diversify, because it has multiple uses. However, the southwest of Goiás is not a region traditionally produces peanuts, and little is known about the behavior of this culture in this region. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of crop peanuts subjected to increasing levels of phosphorus and potassium in soils with different textures, in two growing seasons (summer harvest and autumn). The experiments were conducted in an Oxisol the clay texture and in an Oxisol medium texture. The peanut cultivar BRS Havana was used in this work. It was shown that doses phosphorus, soil type and planting time have an effect on the factor leaf cover of the peanut crop. The factors of leaf coverage of peanut plants grown in the Oxisol the clay texture were higher than the plants grown in the Oxisol medium texture. In relation to the planting season the biggest factors in coverage was obtained during the summer harvest. The phosphorus significantly influenced the productivity of the crop. The Potassium did not affect the productivity of the crop. The environmental conditions of the summer harvest favor the development of peanut better, in turn, most productive when compared to peanuts grown in autumn. The yield of peanuts grown in the Oxisol the clay texture is greater than the Oxisol medium texture. / O amendoim (Arachis hypogaea L.) é a quarta oleaginosa mais cultivada no mundo, ocupando cerca de 22 milhões de hectares. O cultivo do amendoim é uma excelente alternativa de diversificação para agricultores familiares, pois possui múltiplas utilidades. Porém, o sudoeste de Goiás não é uma região tradicionalmente produtora de amendoim, e pouco se conhece sobre o desempenho desta cultura nesta região. Por isso, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar o desempenho produtivo da cultura do amendoim submetida a doses crescentes de adubação fosfatada e potássica em solos com diferentes texturas, em duas épocas de cultivo (safra e safrinha). Os experimentos foram conduzidos em um Latossolo vermelho distroférrico (LVdf) de textura argilosa e em um Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo distrófico (LVAd) de textura média. Neste estudo foi utilizada a cultivar de amendoim BRS Havana. Ficou evidenciado que as doses de fósforo, o tipo de solo e a época de plantio têm efeito sobre o fator de cobertura foliar da cultura do amendoim. Assim, os fatores de cobertura foliar do amendoim foram maiores nos cultivos sobre o LVdf no período da safra, proporcionais às doses de fósforo. A adubação fosfatada influenciou significativamente a produtividade do amendoim, enquanto que o potássio não afetou a produtividade do amendoim. As condições ambientais do período da safra favorecem o melhor desenvolvimento do amendoim que, por sua vez, apresenta maior produtividade quando comparado ao amendoim cultivado na safrinha. A produtividade do amendoim cultivado no LVdf é maior do no LVAd.

The increasing human population, industrialization, urbanisation and climate change challenges have resulted in an increased demand for already scarce water resources. This has left the agricultural sector with less water for production. Sustainable water management strategies would therefore require accurate determination of water-use. In agriculture, water-use can best be determined from total evaporation which is the loss of water from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Accurate quantification of total evaporation from vegetation would require a thorough understanding of water transport processes between vegetation and the atmosphere, especially in a water-scarce country like South Africa. Several methods for estimating total evaporation have been developed and are in use today. Some of the common methods used today are: the Bowen ratio energy balance, eddy covariance, scintillometry, flux variance and surface renewal. However, various methods have advantages and disadvantages. Considerations include the cost of equipment and level of skill required for use of some of the methods. A number of methods involve indirect or direct estimation of sensible heat flux then calculating latent energy flux and hence total evaporation as a residual of the shortened energy balance equation. The main objective of this study is to determine the effects of grassland management practices on the energy balance components as well as on the surface radiation balance. Eddy covariance and surface renewal methods were employed to investigate the effects of grassland management practices (mowing and burning) on the micrometeorology of naturally occurring grassland. A 4.5-ha grassland site (Ukulinga, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa) was divided into two halves: one area was initially mowed (cut-grass site) to a height of 0.1 m while the other was not mowed (tall-grass site). The tall-grass site was later treated by burning and hence referred to as the burnt-grass site. Two eddy covariance systems were deployed, one at each of the cut-grass and the tall-grass sites. The systems each comprised a three-dimensional sonic anemometer to measure high frequency sonic temperature, orthogonal wind speeds and directions and the eddy covariance sensible heat flux (W m-2). Latent energy flux, from which total evaporation was then determined, was calculated as a residual from the shortened energy balance equation from measurements of sensible heat flux, net irradiance and soil heat flux assuming closure is met. Other microclimatic measurements of soil water content, soil temperature, surface reflection coefficient and reflected solar irradiance were performed, the latter with a four-component net radiometer. An automatic weather station was also set up at the research site for continuous measurements of solar irradiance, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction and rainfall. Water vapour pressure and grass reference evaporation were also determined online. Energy fluxes from the tall-grass site were measured from March to June 2008. Greater total evaporation rates (2.27 mm day-1) were observed at the beginning of the experiment (March). As winter approached most of the energy balance components showed a constant decreasing trend and the average total evaporation rates for May and June were 1.03 and 0.62 mm day-1, respectively. The tall-grass site had consistently lower soil temperatures that changed diurnally when compared to the cut-grass site. The soil water content at both sites showed no significant differences. Most of the energy balance components were similar between the two sites and changed diurnally. Although there were small differences observed between other energy balance components, for example, latent energy flux was slightly greater for the tall-grass site than for the cut-grass site. The tall-grass site had more basal cover and this may have contributed to the differences in temperature regimes observed between the two sites. However, the plants growing at the cut-grass site showed more vigour than the ones at the tall-grass site as spring approached. Burning of a mixed grassland surface caused significant changes to most of the optical properties and energy fluxes of the surface. Following burning, the soil temperature was elevated to noticeable levels due to removal of basal cover by burning. The surface reflection coefficient measured before and after the burn also presented a remarkable change. The surface reflection coefficient was significantly reduced after the burn but a progressive increase was observed as the burnt grass recovered after the spell of spring rains. The energy fluxes: net irradiance, latent energy flux and soil heat flux also increased following the burn but the latent energy flux was reduced as transpiration was effectively eliminated by the burning of all actively transpiring leaves. As a result, the main process that contributed towards latent energy flux was soil evaporation. An ideal surface renewal analysis model based on two air temperature structure functions was used to estimate sensible heat flux over natural grassland treated by mowing. Two air temperature lag times r (0.4 and 0.8 s) were used when computing the air temperature structure functions online. The surface renewal sensible heat fluxes were computed using an iteration process in Excel. The fluxes, obtained using an iterative procedure, were calibrated to determine the surface renewal weighting factor (a) and then validated against the eddy covariance method using different data sets for unstable conditions during 2008. The latent energy flux was computed as a residual from the shortened energy balance equation. The surface renewal weighting factor was determined for each of the two heights and two lag times for each measurement height (z) above the soil surface. The a values obtained during the surface renewal calibration period (day of year 223 to 242, 2008) ranged from 1.90 to 2.26 for measurement height 0.7 m and r = 0.4 and 0.8 s. For a measurement height of 1.2 m and r = 0.4 and 0.8 s, a values of 0.71 and 1.01 were obtained, respectively. Good agreement between surface renewal sensible heat flux and eddy covariance sensible heat flux was obtained at a height of 1.2 m using a = 0.71 and a lag time of 0.4 s. Total evaporation for the surface renewal method was compared against the eddy covariance method. The surface renewal method, for a height of 1.2 m and a lag time of 0.4 s, yielded 1.67 mm while the eddy covariance method yielded 1.57 mm for a typical cloudless day. For the same day for a measurement height of 1.2 m and a lag time of 0.8 s, eddy covariance and surface renewal methods yielded 1.57 and 1.10 mm, respectively. For a lag time of 0.4 s, the surface renewal method overestimated total evaporation by 0.10 mm while for a lag time of 0.8 s, the total evaporation was underestimated by 0.47 mm. As a result, the surface renewal method performed better for z = 1.2 m and a lag time of 0.4 s. The eddy covariance method gave reliable sensible heat fluxes throughout the experiment and this allowed a comparison of fluxes across all treatment areas to be achieved. The short-term analysis of the surface renewal method also gave reliable energy fluxes after calibration. Compared to the eddy covariance method, the surface renewal method is more attractive in the sense that it is easy to operate and use and it is relatively cheap. However, the surface renewal method requires calibration and validation against a standard method such as the eddy covariance method. This study showed that grassland management practices had a considerable effect on surface radiation and energy balance of the mowed and burnt treatment sites. Total evaporation was mainly controlled by the available energy flux, rainfall and grassland surface structure. High total evaporation values were observed during summer when net irradiance was at its highest and grass growth at its peak. Low total evaporation values were observed in winter (dry atmospheric conditions) when net irradiance was at its lowest and most vegetation was dormant. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:50:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 3540087 bytes, checksum: 6fe359d5575949f5e5cadf88b14ef154 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-11 / The Paranaíba River basin is on the sugar cane expansion route. It has 222,767 km2 and occupies 2.6% of the national territory; 68.4% of its area is located in the Brazilian Midwest Region and 31.6% in the state of Minas Gerais. This trend occurs due to the characteristics of the region are favorable for the sugar cane production, for example the mild relief, which facilitates farming mechanization, in addition to the climatic factors, with well-defined seasons and high temperatures throughout the year. This study aimed to analyze the temporal evolution in the geographical space of the expansion of sugarcane production, and quantify the change in flow rate and the impact of the replacement of vegetation cover in the Paranaíba River basin. The work was divided in two chapters. In the first one the goal was to present a scenario of counties in the basin over the decades of 1990 and 2000, observing the behavior of the culture of sugar cane. For the socioeconomic characterization of the basin, secondary data from the IBGE and IPEADATA were used, composed of population, agriculture and the gross national product (GDP) for the 197 municipalities along the basin. For data analysis the factorial and the cluster analysis were used. The main results showed the agricultural vocation with emphasis on grain production and on the cane sugar expansion. In chapter 2 the difference between the actual evapotranspiration of sugar cane and pasture and the impact of land use change on water resources was quantified, paying attention to the possible change in its flow rate between 1990 and 2010. We tried to correlate the real evapotranspiration of sugar cane and pasture in order to analyze the water demand for each crop. This analysis was based on the land use conversion principle. The methodology used in this research consisted in estimating the water losses by the sugar cane and pasture through the water balance, with simulations for three scenarios of sugar cane harvest. It was verified that sugar cane showed higher relative evaporation than pasture, particularly in the winter cycle. / A bacia hidrográfica do rio Paranaíba está na rota de expansão da cana-deaçúcar. Possui 222.767 km2 e ocupa 2,6% do território nacional; 68,4% da sua área localizam-se na região Centro-Oeste e 31,6% no estado de Minas Gerais. Essa tendência ocorre em função das características da região serem favoráveis à produção da cana-de-açúcar, como o relevo suave que facilita a mecanização da lavoura, além dos fatores climáticos com estações bem definidas e temperaturas elevadas durante todo o ano. Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral analisar a evolução temporal, no espaço geográfico da expansão da lavoura canavieira e quantificar a alteração da vazão e os impactos da substituição da cobertura vegetal na bacia hidrográfica do rio Paranaíba. O trabalho foi dividido em dois capítulos. No primeiro buscou-se apresentar um cenário dos municípios da bacia ao longo das décadas de 1990 e 2000, observando o comportamento da lavoura da cana-de-açúcar. Para a caracterização socioeconômica da bacia utilizou-se dados secundários do IBGE e IPEADATA composto por população, agricultura, pecuária e PIB para os 197 municípios da bacia. Para análise dos dados utilizou-se a análise fatorial e análise de cluster. Os principais resultados apontaram vocação agrícola com destaque para produção de grãos e expansão da cana-de-açúcar. O objetivo do capítulo 2 foi quantificar a diferença entre a evapotranspiração real da cana-de-açúcar e da pastagem e o impacto da mudança do uso do solo nos recursos hídricos atentando para possível alteração da vazão entre 1990 a 2010. Buscou-se relacionar a evapotranspiração real da cana-de-açúcar e da pastagem com objetivo de analisar a demanda hídrica de cada cultura. Essa análise baseou-se no princípio de conversão de uso da terra. A metodologia consistiu em estimar as perdas de água pela cana e pela pastagem através do balanço hídrico, com simulações para três cenários de safra da cana. A cana de-açúcar apresentou maior evapotranspiração em relação a pastagem especialmente no ciclo de inverno.

A cultura da soja é cultivada em quase todo o território nacional, sendo a de maior área de cultivo no Brasil. Nessas áreas, o principal fator que limita a produtividade da cultura é o déficit hídrico. Com isso, estratégias de manejo da cultura devem ser avaliadas, buscandose identificar os períodos de semeadura de menores riscos climáticos e maior rentabilidade. Além das condições climáticas, características específicas das cultivares também podem ser utilizadas no manejo da cultura da soja, como os níveis de tolerância ao déficit hídrico. Assim, as condições climáticas e de tolerância ao déficit hídrico das cultivares de soja podem ser consideradas em modelos de estimativa de produtividade, auxiliando na definição das épocas preferências de semeadura. Com base nisso, o objetivo deste estudo foi calibrar um modelo agrometeorológico para a estimativa da produtividade da soja e, posteriormente, aplicá-lo em diferentes regiões brasileiras para definir as épocas preferenciais de semeadura, levando-se em consideração também os custos de produção. Para tanto, utilizou-se o modelo da Zona Agroecológica - FAO para a estimativa da produtividade potencial da cultura (PPF) da soja, a qual, posteriormente, foi penalizada em função do déficit hídrico, obtendo-se a produtividade atingível. Este modelo foi calibrado com dados de produtividade observada a campo. Os coeficientes calibrados, de forma específica por cultivar, foram o de sensibilidade ao déficit hídrico (Ky) por fase de desenvolvimento da cultura e o coeficiente de colheita (Cc), objetivando a minimização do erro absoluto médio entre as produtividades estimada e observada. Os valores de Ky foram utilizados para diferenciar grupos de cultivares quanto à tolerância ao déficit hídrico. Com os coeficientes do modelo (Ky e Cc) calibrados realizou-se a estimativa de produtividade atingível para 15 diferentes localidades brasileiras, para identificar períodos favoráveis à semeadura, em que a produtividade estimada foi maior que o custo de produção em sacas por hectare. Após definir os períodos favoráveis à semeadura, esses foram comparados aos recomendados pelo Zoneamento de Risco Climático do Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA). Para a calibração do modelo, o desempenho obtido foi classificado como muito bom. A partir dos valores de Ky calibrados foram definidos quatro grupos de cultivares quanto à tolerância ao déficit hídrico, classificados em tolerância alta, média alta, média baixa e baixa, com os valores de Ky para a fase floração-enchimento de grãos sendo de 0,78, 0,88, 0,90 e 0,97, respectivamente. A partir das simulações de produtividade foi possível identificar períodos de maior probabilidade da produtividade da soja ultrapassar o custo de produção, definindo os decêndios aptos para a semeadura. Observou-se que os períodos de cultivo da soja pela metodologia proposta diferiram do zoneamento agrícola de risco climático, sendo essa diferença dependente da localidade. Portanto, conclui-se que a definição das épocas preferenciais de semeadura da soja, com base na estimativa da produtividade da cultura utilizando-se séries climáticas históricas e incluindo-se as particulares das cultivares quanto à tolerância ao déficit hídrico e ao custo de produção, gera informações mais consistentes e que permitem ao produtor minimizar as perdas de produtividade decorrentes do estresse hídrico. / Soybeans are cultivated in almost all Brazilian states, where it is the major crop in terms of area. In these regions the main limiting factor for the crop is water deficit. So, sowing dates should be evaluated to find, among other factors, when occur the lower climate risk and the highest yield. Besides weather conditions, characteristics of soybean cultivars, as water stress tolerance, can also be used to choose the best sowing dates. Thus, both weather conditions and water deficit tolerance can be considered in crop yield models, helping to define the best sowing dates. Based on that, the aim of this study was to calibrate an agrometeorological model for estimating soybean yield and apply it in different Brazilian producing regions to define the best sowing dates, taking also into account the production costs. The FAO Agro-ecological zone model was used for estimating potential yield (PPF), which was then penalized by a water deficit depletion function for obtaining the attainable yield. This model was calibrated with actual yield data from field experiments of soybeans cultivars competition. The calibrated crop parameters were water deficit sensitivity index (Ky), for each cultivar and growth stage, and harvest index (Cc), which aimed to obtain the smallest mean absolute error between estimated and actual yields. Calibrated Ky values were used to differentiate cultivar groups regarding the water stress tolerance. The calibrated model was used to estimate soybean yield for 15 Brazilian locations in order to identify the sowing dates when yields, in bags per hectare, overcome the production costs. The best sowing dates obtained were compared with those recommended by the Climate Risk Zoning of Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA). The calibrated model presented a very good performance, demonstrating its capacity for estimating soybean yield. According to Ky values, soybean cultivars were split in four groups of water deficit tolerance, being high, medium high, medium low and low tolerance, with Ky for reproductive stage of 0.75, 0.88, 0.90, 0.97, respectively. Based on the soybean yield simulations, it was possible to identify the sowing dates when the probability of yields is higher than production costs. The sowing periods obtained by the proposed method were different from those recommended by the MAPAS´s climate risk zoning, depending on the location. Therefore, it was concluded that the definition of the best sowing dates for soybean crop, based on the estimated yields using a crop yield model with historical climate data and considering the cultivars water deficit tolerance and production costs, can generate more accurate information, allowing growers to minimize the yield losses due to water deficit.

Orientador: Jurandir Zullo Junior / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agrícola / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T19:23:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lazarim_CamilaGiorgi_M.pdf: 45631852 bytes, checksum: 657cbb93f5038306a09d246ea6a15804 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A obtenção de valores precisos e confiáveis, em uma quantidade adequada, e com a maior agilidade possível da temperatura da superfície terrestre é estratégica para aplicações de grande interesse como os estudos de mudanças climáticas e o monitoramento agrometeorólogico. As redes meteorológicas de superfície, automáticas e manuais, são de grande utilidade e imprescindíveis, mas, normalmente, apresentam limitações que dificultam a sua utilização efetiva e confiável em escala regional, tais como: i) Distribuição espacial inadequada; ii) Grande diversidade de equipamentos para medidas; iii) Difíceis condições de manutenção e acesso a dados. Os dados provenientes dos sensores remotos, a bordo dos satélites orbitais, representam uma alternativa que deve ser considerada visando o aumento da densidade, confiabilidade e agilidade de obtenção dos dados de temperatura da superfície terrestre em estudos regionais. A estimativa da evapotranspiração é um parâmetro de grande importância no monitoramento da irrigação, na simulação de balanços hídricos, no acompanhamento do desenvolvimento e produção de uma cultura agrícola, e em estudos climáticos. A utilização da temperatura de superfície como dado inicial simplifica os modelos de estimativa de evapotranspiração de uma determinada área de interesse. Esse é o caso do método S-SEBI (Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index), que se fundamenta no fluxo de calor entre a superfície do solo e a atmosfera. Sendo assim, o objetivo desse trabalho foi estimar a evapotranspiração, através do algoritmo S-SEBI, e a temperatura de superfície, utilizando um modelo adaptado dos algoritmos propostos por Sobrino et al. (1997) e Ulivieri et al. (1994) modificados por Ouaidrari et al. (2002). Isto foi feito através da avaliação do comportamento dessas equações propostas ao longo do ano, modificando constantes e dados de entrada, visando à utilização efetiva delas no monitoramento agrometeorológico. Assim, foi obtida uma equação adaptada que teve resultados significativos na estimativa da temperatura de superfície e, a partir desse dado, foi estimada a evapotranspiração que apresentou valores superestimados / Abstract: Obtaining accurate and reliable Earth's surface temperature values, adequate in quantity and with the greatest flexibility possible is of great strategic interest for applications such as studies of climate change and agrometeorological monitoring. The surface meteorological networks - both automatic and manual - are very useful and indispensable, but often have limitations that hinder their effective and reliable use in regional scale, such as: i) inadequate spatial distribution, ii) Wide range of equipment iii) Conditions of maintenance and data access. Data coming from remote sensors on board orbiting satellites represent an alternative that should be considered in order to increase the density, reliability and speed of data attainment from surface temperature in regional studies. The evapotranspiration is a parameter of great importance in monitoring the irrigation and the development and production of a crop, the water balance simulation, and climate studies. The use of surface temperature as initial data simplifies the models that estimate hourly and daily evapotranspiration for a certain area of interest. This is the case of the method SEBI S-(Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index), which is based on the heat flux between the ground surface and the atmosphere. Therefore, the objective of this work was to estimate the evapotranspiration through the S-SEBI algorithm and the surface temperature, using a model adapted from the algorithms proposed by Sobrino et al. (1997) and Ulivieri et al. (1994) modified by Ouaidrari et al. (2002). This was done by evaluating their behavior of these proposed equations over the year and modifying the constants and the input data, for their effective use in agrometeorological monitoring. Therefore, was obtained an equation adapted which had significant results in the estimated surface temperature and, from this data was estimated the evapotranspiration which presented overestimated values / Mestrado / Planejamento e Desenvolvimento Rural Sustentável / Mestra em Engenharia Agrícola

O milho é uma das culturas mais importantes do mundo, pois os produtos dele oriundos são largamente utilizados na indústria de amidos, na alimentação animal e humana, e também na produção de energia proveniente de biomassa. Por esse motivo, há sempre um grande interesse em conhecer a potencialidade de uso dos principais materiais genéticos disponíveis em relação aos ambientes em que serão inseridos. Este trabalho teve como objetivo central caracterizar, para o genótipo DKB-390 conduzido sob condição irrigada, atributos ecofisiológicos como área foliar, eficiência de uso da radiação, coeficiente de extinção, coeficientes de cultura, consumo hídrico e componentes de espiga; bem como conceitualizar modelos norteadores de manejo e de planejamento para cultura do milho, no intuito de obter a produtividade de grãos contemplada pelas incertezas climáticas diárias dos principais elementos do clima e suas correlações, para posteriormente se obter as correspondentes necessidades de água e de nitrogênio pela cultura. Para tanto, um experimento de campo foi conduzido, informações da literatura foram revisadas e levantadas, e modelos de previsão foram concebidos para a produtividade de grãos e para as demais variáveis de interesse. Como principais resultados, obteve-se: (i) sob condições adequadas de suprimento hídrico e de nitrogênio, o híbrido DKB-390 requer cerca de 573 litros de água para kg de grão que produz; (ii) o genótipo responde significativamente à segunda cobertura com nitrogênio, caso a cultura seja conduzida sob elevada população de plantas e adequado suprimento hídrico; (iii) a segunda cobertura com nitrogênio promoveu melhor manutenção da área foliar durante a fase de enchimento de grãos; (iv) o incremento da segunda cobertura de nitrogênio promoveu maior eficiência de uso da água pela cultura, bem como um leve aumento nos valores modais do número de grãos por fileira (da espiga) e da massa de 1000 grãos; (v) sob condições de adequado suprimento hídrico, o coeficiente de extinção médio, generalizado para todo o ciclo, é da ordem de 0,4267; valor que tende a ser maior na medida em que o suprimento de nitrogênio é menor; (vi) a eficiência de uso da radiação foi calculada em 3,52 g (fitomassa seca de parte aérea) MJ-1 (radiação solar fotossinteticamente ativa interceptada), tendo sido menor em função do emprego do regime de nitrogênio mais restritivo; (vii) os coeficientes de cultura obtidos do experimento podem ser utilizados para o manejo da irrigação do híbrido DKB-390, para os principais subperíodos, para que a produtividade não seja penalizada por déficit hídrico; (viii) o índice de colheita (expresso em relação à parte aérea) foi da ordem de 40% (variando entre 37% e 43%) sob condições de suprimento adequado de água e nitrogênio, valores que tenderam a ser maiores quando da restrição da segunda cobertura; (ix) o modelo determinístico proposto simulou adequadamente a evolução da produtividade de fitomassa de parte aérea do híbrido empregado, bem como sua produtividade de grãos sob adequadas condições de suprimento hídrico e de nitrogênio; (x) o modelo determinístico simulou adequadamente as evapotranspirações diárias o consumo hídrico através do método de Penman-Monteith; (xi) o modelo estocástico sugerido mostrou-se satisfatório, mediante o uso da distribuição normal bivariada das variáveis radiação solar e temperatura média do ar, para simular a produtividade de grãos sob condições de suprimento hídrico adequado e sob déficit moderado; e (xii) aparentemente, o modelo estocástico necessita ser melhorado quanto à capacidade de previsão das necessidades hídricas e de nitrogênio, pois tende claramente a subestimar as primeiras e superestimar as segundas. / Maize is on of the world most important crops, given that the products generated from this cereal are largely used by sectors like starch industry, animal and human nutrition, as well as biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is frequently a huge interest in knowing the potential adoption of the main available genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be supposedly subjected. Considering the hybrid DKB-390 under full irrigated conditions, this work has as the central objective to characterize the most important ecophysiological attributes such as leaf area, radiation use efficiency, extinction coefficient, crop coefficients, water use and ear yield components. Additionaly, specif goals were to conceptualize models applicable for both management and planning of maize crops in order to predict the grain productivity contemplated by daily climate incertainties of the driven climate variables (i.e. radiation and temperature) and their correlation, then to achieve the water and nitrogen requirement corresponding to the predicted productivity. A field experiment was carried out, useful information from literature were obtained and reviewed, and models were created towards to support the prediction tools. The following outcomes might be highligthed: (i) under suitable conditions of both nitrogen and water supply, hybrid DKB-390 requires about 573 litters of water per each kilogram of produced grain; (ii) the genotype is significantly responsive to the second nitrogen covering when growing under high plant population and suitable water supply; (iii) the second nitrogen covering has enhanced better leaf area maintainance during grain filling stage; (iv) the second nitrogen covering has led to a better water use efficiency, as well as slightly increased modal values of the number of kernels per row (of ear) and the mass of a thousand kernels; (v) under suitable water supply, averaged extinction coefficient might be generalized as 0.4267 throughout the whole cycle, whereas tending to be higher as the nitrogen supply is restricted; (vi) the radiation use efficiency as calculated as 3.52 g (above-ground dry matter) MJ-1 (intercepted photossyntheticaly active radiation), being smaller as the nitrogen supply is restricted; (vii) some crop coefficients were found for the main phenological stages and may be adopted for irrigation management of hybrid DKB-390, when one aims to not deplet the productivity; (viii) the harvest index (above-ground based) was found about 40% (varying from 37% to 43%) if water and nitrogen are added sufficiently, and is likely to be higher provided that the second covering is not done; (ix) the proposed determinist model has performed well when simulating above-ground dry matter time course and its corresponding grain productivity under full and moderated water deficit conditions; (x) by using Penman-Montheit method, the deterministic model apparently simulates well both daily evapotranspiration and water uses; (xi) through bivariate normal distribution of averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the suggested stochastic model has simulated grain productivity in a satisfactory way; and (xii) the suggested stochastic model need to be improved in terms of its water and nitrogen requirement predictability, given that it clearly tends to underestimate the former and overestimate the latter.

An understanding of the water use of different crops commonly grown in an area is essential for the implementation of integrated catchment management in South Africa. With increasing pressure on water resources, mainly due to the recent changes in the Water Act, it has become important to determine the actual water demands of agricultural and other crops. Policy makers require knowledge of whether forestry canopies use more water than grassland and other agricultural crops. The Bowen ratio and Penman-Monteith methods were used in a comparative study of the evaporation from Saccharum, Acacia and Eucalyptus. All of the research was conducted at marginal sites located in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands of South Africa over a period of two years. The Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB) technique combines the Bowen ratio (J3) (the ratio between the sensible, H and latent heat flux density, XE), with the net irradiance (Rn) and soil heat flux densities (G) to calculate evaporation. A comparative study of the sitespecific energy balance components (Rn, G, H and AE), general climatic conditions (rainfall, solar irradiance and air temperature) and other site-specific parameters (leaf area index and average canopy height) was conducted on Saccharum and young commercial forests consisting of Acacia and Eucalyptus. The energy balance highlighted important differences in the energy balance components between the different canopies. The differences between the reflection coefficients at the three sites contributed mainly to the differences in the evaporation rates. The low reflection coefficients of the forest canopies (Acacia and Eucalyptus) (0.1 and 0.08 respectively) were smaller than of the sugarcane canopy (0.2). This resulted in more energy available (« 6 %) for partitioning between the sensible and latent heat flux densities and higher evaporation rates for the forestry canopies. Where low leaf area indices existed (Acacia and Eucalyptus sites) (LAI < 2), the soil heat flux density contributed up to 40 % of the net irradiance (G = 0.4 Rn). The evaporation rates for Saccharum, Acacia and Eucalyptus averaged 2 mm day"1 in winter and 5 mm day"1 in summer. The slightly higher summer evaporation rate for Eucalyptus (5.6 mm day"1), compared to Acacia (4.9 mm day"1), resulted from the lower reflection coefficients and canopy resistance (rc) for Eucalyptus (ocs = 0.08, rc = 35 s m"1) compared to Acacia (ocs = 0.1, rc = 45 s m"1). Automatic weather station data (solar irradiance, air temperature, water vapour pressure and windspeed) were applied to site-specific Penman-Monteith equations to predict evaporation for all three sites. Statistically significant relationships (slope, m « 1, r2 > 0.8) were found between the measured (Bowen ratio) and simulated (site-specific Penman-Monteith) evaporation estimates. The current study has demonstrated the effectiveness of applying the Penman-Monteith equation to forest and sugarcane canopies to predict evaporation, provided accurate net irradiance, soil heat flux densities and canopy resistances are used. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 1999.

Canegro is a leading sugarcane crop simulation model and has been used extensively in agronomic research and management. The model has been under development since the late 1980s at the South African Sugarcane Research Institute (SASRI). The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is a software package containing models for a wide range of field crops, and utilities for processing, storing and analysing model inputs and outputs. Canegro was included as part of version 3.1 of DSSAT in the mid-1990s. The SASRI Canegro model was subsequently developed further, but these changes were never integrated, nor incorporated, into DSSAT. DSSAT has also developed substantially, and as of version 4 adopted a modular Cropping System Model (CSM) structure, providing numerous scientific and practical advantages over previous non-modular versions. The DSSAT-Canegro v.3 model was not modified to use this modular structure. Following recognition of the advantages offered by DSSAT and its modular CSM, a project was initiated to incorporate the Canegro model into the DSSAT CSM. The project entailed: (i) restructuring and integrating the current Canegro plant growth and development code into the DSSAT v4 CSM modular framework, making use of its generic modules for management, soil, weather and the energy balance; (ii) verification of DSSAT CSM Canegro model results against the current SASRI version of Canegro to ensure that the new model produced similar results to the original model, for a set of simulated situations; and (iii) evaluation of the new DSSAT CSM Canegro model against experimental datasets. The new DSSAT v4 CSM Canegro model has been verified to behave identically to the SASRI Canegro model when the water balance is not modelled and growth can occur at climatic potential rates. When the water balance is simulated but where the crop is not stressed, near identical output is produced by both models. Under water-stressed conditions, some discrepancies appear between the two models, due to differences in the calculation of reference evaporation, soil surface evaporation and runoff. Validation of the new model against data from 16 experimental crops produced root mean squared errors of 6.62 t ha-1 for stalk dry mass and 3.59 t ha-1 for sucrose mass – very similar to published values for Canegro. This project has yielded a functional, well-documented, maintainable and user-friendly version of the Canegro model, which is available for universal use via the official release of the DSSAT v4.5. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.