Purpose of this Master thesis is to analyze, understand and evaluate current financial crisis from the leadership perspective. In order to achieve this aim we made literature analysis, conducted interviews, analyzed failure case of Lehman Brothers and case of NYSE Euronext Lisbon. Furthermore, we created a questionnaire which was sent to the biggest companies in Europe. According to our investigation, we found out that the most suitable methodological view for our research is a combination of analytical and system views. Analysis of our findings shows that financial crisis was highly caused of the failure of leadership in the financial sector. We found out that leaders have to be aware of these main problems: nowadays word is extremely interconnected and one variable can affect the whole system, huge short-term returns cannot marginalize long-term foresight, risk has to be measured and estimated, leaders has to pay a lot of attention to their strategies, plan, rethink and if it is necessary reshape them. Moreover, leaders now face more and more challenges: they have to react at the moment, to deal with world full of paradoxes and to take actions in order to increase level of confidence which creates more and more instability and chaos in the society.

ABSTRACT The conditions on the market are rapidly changing and businesses in Sweden need to seize signals of change in time, in order to have a strong market position. The ability to make the right decisions and react in time is vital due to the increasing competition and a mistake can have devastating consequences for a company. The aim of this thesis is to investigate what tools and methods businesses use to analyse the surrounding world, which has lead to following research question: How do businesses analyse the surrounding and predict trends and what factors in the society should a company be attentive to while performing an analysis? Analyses of the surrounding heritage from a term called Business Intelligence, which consist of internal and external factors. This thesis focuses of analyses of external factors, in other words the surrounding. These external aspects enrich the understanding of the internal factors and together they are the foundation that strategic planning originates from. An analysis can be performed in many different ways for instance with collaborations with consultants or by observing the society. A World Mapping method can be used to chart trends or important changes and a company can also try to identify unpredicted events by using the factor X-model. Theories by Bengt Wahlström have also been used in the study to display how trends can be analysed. This study will analyse large food producers who have established brands on the Swedish market. A qualitative approach has been conducted where six food supplier companies and three consultant companies specialised in analysing the surrounding have been interviewed. The method has been deductive where the empirical findings has been analysed with the theoretical framework. The outcome of the research shows that collaborations with consultants is a commonly used instrument and practical methods such as scenario planning and in real life scanning are preferred as visualising factors simplifies the managing of them. Media plays a significant role, both as a tool to search and track trends but also as a tool that can increase the affect of trends and unforeseen occurrences.

The automotive industry is today in a world of globalisation and external factors can influence the car companies and it is important that they progress with the people. When an external factor, as the oil price, increases dramatically, it will affect the economies in different matters. Other external factors are impacted by the oil price, for example inflation, unemployment and target rates. In addition, people are changing their preferences due to the attention of the environment. With this as the foundation the problem of the essay were divided into three aspects. First, are the automotive companies affected by an increasing oil price? Second, is a different green thinking in the markets of the companies affecting them? Third, do economic trends making an impact on the auto companies? The purpose of this essay is to investigate if the oil price, a new green way of thinking and if different economical factors have affected the car companies. To be able to accomplish the purpose, the ten largest automotive companies’ annual reports and Internet sites were used to gather information about monthly and annual sales numbers. Along with that, other necessary sources as pollution rates for different areas; inflation rates, unemployment rates and target rates were collected. Theories that were necessary for analyzing the empiric work were used. The analysis part of the essay consists mostly of correlation- and regression analysis, because they are the most appropriate tools in this context. Furthermore, the study is stating that the car companies are demonstrating tendencies to being negatively affected by an increasing in the oil price. Moreover, auto companies with more green cars have more sales on markets that have additional green thinking. Lastly, the study is also concluding that economical trends do not affect the companies in any special circumstances.

The research described in this thesis examines how the hydrologic cycle is affected by climate changes in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) in northern Canada. The study focuses on five hydro-meteorological variables; runoff, evapotranspiration, storage, temperature and precipitation. Two different climate input data sets were used: Environment Canada gridded observed data and the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis climate data (ERA-40). In both data sets, runoff and evapotranspiration were modelled using the WATFLOOD hydrological model for the period of 1961 to 2002 on a 20 by 20 km grid. Trends were assessed on a monthly and annual basis using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The hydrologic cycle in the MRB appears to be strongly influenced by climate change. The results reveal a general pattern of warming temperatures, and increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration. Overall decreases in runoff and in storage were detected from the Environment Canada data set while increases in runoff and in storage were detected from the ECMWF data set. The trends in runoff and evapotranspiration reflected changes in both precipitation and temperature. The spatial pattern of changes in runoff followed the pattern of change in precipitation very closely in most of the months, with the exception of March and October. The effect of changes in temperature is much more noticeable than that of changes in precipitation in March and October. The change in spatial distribution of evapotranspiration, on the other hand, matched the pattern of changes in temperature better; yet its seasonal pattern follows more closely to that of precipitation. The sensitivity of annual runoff to changes in climate was also estimated using a nonparametric estimator. Among the most important findings are: 1) runoff was more sensitive to precipitation and less sensitive to temperature; 2) runoff was positively correlated with precipitation and evapotranspiration; 3) runoff was negatively correlated with temperature, implying any increase in melt runoff from glaciers caused by increases in temperature were offset by losses due to evapotranspiration within the basin; 4) soil moisture storage may play an important role in the runoff and evapotranspiration processes; and 5) the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration is typically lower along the Rocky Mountain chain, higher in the central zone of the Interior Plain, and highly varied in the Canadian Shield region in the basin. Correlation analysis suggested that the agreement between the two data sets is very weak at the grid-cell level. However, there was broad degree of consistencies in the seasonal and spatial patterns of trends between the two data sets, suggesting that the data are more reliable for identifying hydrological changes on a regional scale than at grid-cell level.

Wegener´s granulomatosis (WG) is an unusual, serious, systemic vasculitis with specific clinical findings. The studies in this thesis aim at broadening our understanding of the aetiology and outcome of WG. Patients with WG were identified in the In-patient Register 1975-2001. During this time the incidence increased three-fold, and neither ANCA-related increased awareness, nor diagnostic drift, seem to fully explain this trend, but it is still unclear if a true rise in incidence exists. Anti- neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) have been presented as highly specific for vasculitis. In a series of consecutive cANCA/PR3-ANCA positive patients, we investigated the positive predictive value for ANCA, and the outcome of patients with a positive cANCA/PR3-ANCA but not vasculitis. These patients have a low future risk of developing vasculitis, possibly indicating that ANCA, in this setting, reflects neutrophil activating properties not specific to vasculitis. By linkage of the WG-cohort, and randomly selected population controls, to the Multi-generation register, we identified all first-degree relatives and spouses of patients and controls, totally encompassing some 2,000 patients and 70,000 relatives. Familial aggregation of WG was the exception, with absolute risks of < 1 per 1000.However, relative risks in first-grade relatives amounted to 1.56 (95% CI 0.35-6.90) such that a moderate familial aggregation cannot be excluded. In the WG-cohort, cancer occurrence and risk was compared to that of the general population. Patients with WG have an overall doubled risk of cancer, with particularly increased risks of bladder-cancer, haematopoietic cancers including lymphomas and squamous skin-cancer. In a case-control study nested within the WG-cohort, treatment with cyclophosphamide was compared among bladder-cancer patients and matched cancer-free controls. Absolute risk of bladder cancer as high as 10% some years after diagnosis were found, and this risk can partly be attributed to cyclophosphamide-treatment, with a dose-response relationship.

Energy has been one of the most important issues and challenge humans face in the 21st century which has a bearing on international economic and social development, global climate changes and environment protection. With a focus on development trends of world energy, this paper analyses the current world energy status and from the perspectives of energy sources, regions, end-use sectors, the balance of energy production and consumption, and in the context of its implications on the global environmental and economic and social development by using a series of indicators such as total primary energy, total final energy, energy consumption and CO2 emission intensity per capita and per GDP to compare and study. The main development trends contains depletion of fossil fuels, rapid development of renewable energy, aggravated environmental problems by energy-related GHG emissions, more unbalanced and interdependent regional energy production and consumption, more efficient energy industry; globalization and so on. This article expounds humans’ efforts to make progress in developing renewable energy and reducing energy-related environmental impacts. In the end of the paper, world energy structure development and middle-term energy consumption are projected, and the general orientations of world energy development trends in future are presented.

The research described in this thesis examines how the hydrologic cycle is affected by climate changes in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) in northern Canada. The study focuses on five hydro-meteorological variables; runoff, evapotranspiration, storage, temperature and precipitation. Two different climate input data sets were used: Environment Canada gridded observed data and the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis climate data (ERA-40). In both data sets, runoff and evapotranspiration were modelled using the WATFLOOD hydrological model for the period of 1961 to 2002 on a 20 by 20 km grid. Trends were assessed on a monthly and annual basis using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The hydrologic cycle in the MRB appears to be strongly influenced by climate change. The results reveal a general pattern of warming temperatures, and increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration. Overall decreases in runoff and in storage were detected from the Environment Canada data set while increases in runoff and in storage were detected from the ECMWF data set. The trends in runoff and evapotranspiration reflected changes in both precipitation and temperature. The spatial pattern of changes in runoff followed the pattern of change in precipitation very closely in most of the months, with the exception of March and October. The effect of changes in temperature is much more noticeable than that of changes in precipitation in March and October. The change in spatial distribution of evapotranspiration, on the other hand, matched the pattern of changes in temperature better; yet its seasonal pattern follows more closely to that of precipitation. The sensitivity of annual runoff to changes in climate was also estimated using a nonparametric estimator. Among the most important findings are: 1) runoff was more sensitive to precipitation and less sensitive to temperature; 2) runoff was positively correlated with precipitation and evapotranspiration; 3) runoff was negatively correlated with temperature, implying any increase in melt runoff from glaciers caused by increases in temperature were offset by losses due to evapotranspiration within the basin; 4) soil moisture storage may play an important role in the runoff and evapotranspiration processes; and 5) the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration is typically lower along the Rocky Mountain chain, higher in the central zone of the Interior Plain, and highly varied in the Canadian Shield region in the basin. Correlation analysis suggested that the agreement between the two data sets is very weak at the grid-cell level. However, there was broad degree of consistencies in the seasonal and spatial patterns of trends between the two data sets, suggesting that the data are more reliable for identifying hydrological changes on a regional scale than at grid-cell level.

This thesis examines underpricing in Sweden using unique data on the 185 firms going public through initial public offerings (IPOs) and listing on the Stockholm Stock Exchange between 1994-2011. The average initial return in the Swedish IPO market adjusted for index movements is 11.49% but underpricing of individual IPOs was as high as 241.04%. Further, time trends in underpricing, the level of average initial returns effect on IPO supply underpricing and differences between sectors, segments and investment banks are examined. Finally, it is argued that investors must be rewarded for taking the high risk associated with IPO investing and that the average initial return of 11.49% is a reasonable compensation for that risk.

Undersökningens resultat visar att trender omfattar ett stort antal olika processer där många aktörer är inblandade. De intervjuade företagen anser sig ha en viss roll i skapandet av resetrender. De avgörande faktorerna är destinationen, företagen, världsekonomin, media samt kunden i skapandet av resetrender. Efterfrågan från kunder ger möjligheten att införa nya resmål samt produkter och på så sätt skapa trender. Kundernas åsikter om destinationer och produkter medverkar till skapandet av trender, eftersom de kan påverka sin omgivnings uppfattning. Viktiga faktorer som kan leda till en destinations fall är till exempel politisk instabilitet, terrorism och krig vilket påverkar resenärers destinationsval. Destinationerna måste uppfylla ett antal krav för att de ska kunna lanseras av researrangörerna och därefter ha möjligheten att bli trendiga. Faktorerna som möjliggör en destinations uppkomst är desamma som kan leda till dess fall. / The result shows that the creation of trends covers a wide variety of processes in which many stakeholders are involved. The interviewed companies feel that they have a role in the creation of travel trends. The most crucial factors are, however, the destination, the companies, world economy, media and the customer which is the key factor. The customers’ demands make it possible to introduce new destinations and products and thus create trends. Customers' opinions on destinations and products can also assist in creating trends because they can influence their environments perception. The world economy is also a crucial due to trend creation. Important factors that can lead to a destinations fall is political instability, terrorism and war which affects travelers’ destinationchoice. The destinations must fulfill certain requirements to be launched by the tour operators which can give them the possibility to become trendy. The factors which enable destinations rise are the same that can lead to its fall.

Regional patterns in tropospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) trends are examined for the period 1979 ??01 using MSU, NCEP-NCAR, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses, NOAA OI SST, and the CARDS radiosonde data set. Trends are estimated using a nonparametric Mann-Kendall approach. Substantial regional variability in temperature trends is seen in all of these data sets, with the magnitude of the variability (including substantial regions with cooling trends) far exceeding the average warming trend. The global analyses from MSU and the NCAR/NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses are used to identify sampling problems in using the radiosonde network to infer global trends. Analysis of the trends in tropospheric temperature concurrent with trends in SST shows regions where the signs disagree for both surface cooling and warming. Interpretation of these differing trends using the reanalyses suggest that the models used for the reanalyses are simulating the necessary dynamics/thermodynamics thatcould lead to a tropospheric cooling in contrast to a surface warming (and vice versa).