Water management in the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA) is challenging because the system relies on flow in the Potomac river, which is largely uncontrolled and augmented by the Jennings-Randolph reservoir, located 9-10 days travel time upstream. Given this lag, release decisions must be made collectively by federal, state and local stakeholders amid significant uncertainty, well in advance of accurate weather forecasts with no ability to recapture excess releases. Adding to this uncertainty are predictions of more severe and sporadic rainfall over the next century, caused by anthropogenic climate change. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of demand and climate change on the WMA water supply system, identifying changes in system vulnerability over the next century and developing adaptation strategies designed to maximize efficiency in a nonstationary system. A daily stochastic streamflow generation model is presented, which succesfully replicates statistics of the historical streamflow record and can produce climate-adjusted daily time-series. Using these time series, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to optimize the system's operating rules given current and future conditions, considering several competing objectives. / Ph. D.

The advent of climate change promises extreme disruptions to existing concepts of political time, namely the distinction between the modes of time adopted by modern nation-states, natural time, and the everyday life of human beings. Yet the nation-state remains the primary actor through which climate politics is shaped. India is one the most prominent actors in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and also likely to be one of the most climate-affected societies moving forward. Over the 30-year history of India's engagement at the UNFCCC, there has been a shift from constructing a secular, past-oriented imaginary to a sacred, future-oriented one. The state has fostered these temporal imaginaries through three discursive registers: international politics, climate science, and conservative Hindu ideology. These imaginaries act as a heuristic tool with which to analyze the changing dynamics of political temporality in an era of rapid and extreme climate change. / Doctor of Philosophy / Climate change challenges fundamental notion of political time, the temporal relationship that embeds actors and processes. Yet this topic is underanalyzed in academic literature, especially when it comes to non-Western states. India has been one of the most prominent actors at the United Nations climate negotiations and also likely to be heavily affected by extreme climate shifts. Over the 30-year history of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Indian government has framed the temporality of climate change in two ways. First, from 1988-2004, it constructed and followed a secular, past-oriented imaginary of climate change. Beginning in 2005, and accelerating with the election of Prime Minister Modi in 2014, the government has begun to construct and follow a sacred, future-oriented imaginary. In this way, the State has moved from rhetorically framing climate change as a significant problem to an opportunity that can be met if India and other societies follow conservative Hindu precepts.

This research uses a mixed methods approach to analyze recent climate and land use changes, and farmers\' perceptions of climate change and its impacts on traditional agriculture in the village of Keur Samba Guéye (KSG). This work looks at the influence of social beliefs in adoption of new strategies by small farmers in this region, a topic that has received little or no study to date. Traditional agriculture in KSG is not very productive at present because of the impoverishment of the area and traditional agricultures strong dependency on natural climatic conditions. In this research, I identified recent climatic trends, documented changes in land use/land cover (LULC) from 1989 to 2011, and assessed farmers\' perceptions of climate change and their responses to such changes. To document climate trends and LULC, I analyzed climate data of twelve meteorological stations located across the country and created a classification of satellite images of KSG for two time periods. To examine farmers\' perceptions and agricultural practices, I conducted surveys of the farmers of KSG and in surrounding villages. Most farmers reported negative impacts of climate change on their agriculture activities, and interest in adopting new agricultural strategies despite long-standing tradition. Increasing temperatures and irregularity of rainfall may have negatively impacted crop yields, but more climate data are needed to clarify this phenomenon. LULC has been influenced by both climate change and human pressure; agricultural land has declined, while bare soils have increased. Several recommendations are provided that may help farmers to cope with changing climate. / Master of Science

Amphibians are influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear understanding of how changes in temperature, precipitation, or both, may influence amphibian larvae in temperate regions. Do amphibian larvae have similar developmental responses to increased temperature and increased drying rates of wetlands - both plausible effects of climate change? What influence do the interactive effects of temperature and drying have on the relationships between the larval responses themselves (e.g., survival, body size, and time to metamorphosis)? To address these questions, we studied larval responses of two amphibian species, wood frogs (<em>Lithobates sylvaticus</em>) and spring peepers (<em>Pseudacris crucifer</em>), to simulated warming and drying in experimental ponds. Over 13 weeks, we manipulated temperature and water levels in ponds to produce 4 treatments: control, drying, warming, and drying + warming. Our manipulations created warming treatments that were on average 2 ° C higher than controls, and our drying treatments decreased in water depth by 2.5 cm each week compared to warming and control treatments that held a consistent amount of water. In both species, warming treatments resulted in significantly earlier timing of metamorphosis, and drying treatments resulted in significantly reduced body size. We saw a negative relationship between body size and time to metamorphosis (i.e., individuals that metamorphosed faster generally had larger body sizes), indicating an unexpected decoupling of the typical positive relationship between time to- and size at metamorphosis. The strength of the relationship between responses also varied by treatment for wood frogs but not spring peepers, indicating that the responses of larval amphibians to climate change may vary among species. Our study reveals complex relationships among larval survival, body size, and time to metamorphosis and highlights the need for considering not only the role of interacting climate-related pressures on amphibians but also the mechanisms underlying coupling of larval responses to these pressures. We encourage future research and discussion on a better understanding of why different climate pressures caused different responses, and if these patterns may be consistent in other aquatic species. / Master of Science / Across the globe, shifts in temperatures and the availability of freshwater habitats due to climate change are presenting challenges as well as opportunities for many species, particularly those that rely on freshwater habitats to complete their life cycle. Climate change is leading to warmer water temperature and accelerated drying of wetlands and ponds. Warming and drying often occur simultaneously, yet our understanding of how warming and drying may interact and affect sensitive aquatic species is limited. Amphibians with an aquatic life stage (for example, frog tadpoles) are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on wetlands and ponds because they must transform from swimming larvae to land-dwelling adults before aquatic habitats dry out. Warming and drying help amphibian larvae determine when to start that process, called metamorphosis. For this reason, amphibian larvae in aquatic habitats are especially vulnerable to shifts in water temperature and the timing of drying. In this thesis, I explore how warming and drying influence amphibian survival, body size, and time to metamorphosis. To better understand the responses of amphibian larvae to warming and drying, I tested the effects of warming and drying on three response variables: amphibian survival, body size, and time to metamorphosis. I used two different species, wood frogs and spring peepers, to determine whether frogs' responses vary among species. I created an artificial pond experiment where I filled large tanks to represent natural ponds in a controlled, outdoor setting. In these artificial ponds, I measured wood frog and spring peeper growth under experimentally increased water temperatures and accelerated drying levels over 13 weeks. I found a negative relationship between body size and time to metamorphosis, suggesting individuals who spent less time in the water as larvae were more likely to be larger than individuals who spent more time in the water as larvae. Additionally, ponds with higher larval survival were associated with larger body size and a shorter time to metamorphosis. Warmer water temperatures led to a shortened time to metamorphosis but did not always lead to higher body sizes. Accelerated drying did not lead to a shortened time to metamorphosis, but it did lead to smaller body sizes in both species compared to control and warming ponds. Overall, I found complex relationships among larval responses with the directions of responses varying between treatments and species. This highlights the need for considering the role of climate-related changes in the environment (warming and drying) as well as the interactions between specific larval responses to those environmental changes. By understanding how warming and drying influence amphibian larval success, we can make a more direct link between climate change and its effects on aquatic larvae. Incorporating the responses between survival, body size, and time to metamorphosis to gain a more complete understanding of amphibian larval responses to the changing climate is an important step toward conserving and protecting freshwater aquatic species.

<p>Climate change is thought to be one of the most pressing environmental problems facing humanity. However, due in part to failures in political communication and how the issue has been historically defined in American politics, discussions of climate change remain gridlocked and polarized. In this dissertation, I explore how climate change has been historically constructed as a political issue, how conflicts between climate advocates and skeptics have been communicated, and what effects polarization has had on political communication, particularly on the communication of climate change to skeptical audiences. I use a variety of methodological tools to consider these questions, including evolutionary frame analysis, which uses textual data to show how issues are framed and constructed over time; Kullback-Leibler divergence content analysis, which allows for comparison of advocate and skeptical framing over time; and experimental framing methods to test how audiences react to and process different presentations of climate change. I identify six major portrayals of climate change from 1988 to 2012, but find that no single construction of the issue has dominated the public discourse defining the problem. In addition, the construction of climate change may be associated with changes in public political sentiment, such as greater pessimism about climate action when the electorate becomes more conservative. As the issue of climate change has become more polarized in American politics, one proposed causal pathway for the observed polarization is that advocate and skeptic framing of climate change focuses on different facets of the issue and ignores rival arguments, a practice known as “talking past.” However, I find no evidence of increased talking past in 25 years of popular newsmedia reporting on the issue, suggesting both that talking past has not driven public polarization or that polarization is occurring in venues outside of the mainstream public discourse, such as blogs. To examine how polarization affects political communication on climate change, I test the cognitive processing of a variety of messages and sources that promote action against climate change among Republican individuals. Rather than identifying frames that are powerful enough to overcome polarization, I find that Republicans exhibit telltale signs of motivated skepticism on the issue, that is, they reject framing that runs counter to their party line and political identity. This result suggests that polarization constrains political communication on polarized issues, overshadowing traditional message and source effects of framing and increasing the difficulty communicators experience in reaching skeptical audiences.</p> / Dissertation

abstract: Infrastructure are increasingly being recognized as too rigid to quickly adapt to a changing climate and a non-stationary future. This rigidness poses risks to and impacts on infrastructure service delivery and public welfare. Adaptivity in infrastructure is critical for managing uncertainties to continue providing services, yet little is known about how infrastructure can be made more agile and flexible towards improved adaptive capacity. A literature review identified approximately fifty examples of novel infrastructure and technologies which support adaptivity through one or more of ten theoretical competencies of adaptive infrastructure. From these examples emerged several infrastructure forms and possible strategies for adaptivity, including smart technologies, combined centralized/decentralized organizational structures, and renewable electricity generation. With institutional and cultural support, such novel structures and systems have the potential to transform infrastructure provision and management. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering 2018

abstract: Climate change impacts are evident throughout the world, particularly in the low lying coastal areas. The multidimensional nature and cross-scale impacts of climate change require a concerted effort from different organizations operating at multiple levels of governance. The efficiency and effectiveness of the adaptation actions of these organizations rely on the problem framings, network structure, and power dynamics of the organizations and the challenges they encounter. Nevertheless, knowledge on how organizations within multi-level governance arrangements frame vulnerability, how the adaptation governance structure shapes their roles, how power dynamics affect the governance process, and how barriers emerge in adaptation governance as a result of multi-level interactions is limited. In this dissertation research, a multilevel governance perspective has been adopted to address these knowledge gaps through a case study of flood risk management in coastal Bangladesh. Key-informant interviews, systematic literature review, spatial multi-criteria decision analysis, social network analysis (SNA), and content analysis techniques have been used to collect and analyze data. This research finds that the organizations involved in adaptation governance generally have aligned framings of vulnerability, irrespective of the level at which they are operated, thus facilitating adaptation decision-making. However, this alignment raises concerns of a neglect of socio-economic aspects of vulnerability, potentially undermining adaptation initiatives. This study further finds that the adaptation governance process is elite-pluralistic in nature, but has a coexistence of top-down and bottom-up processes in different phases of adaptation actions. The analysis of power dynamics discloses the dominance of a few national level organizations in the adaptation governance process in Bangladesh. Lastly, four mechanisms have been found that can explain how organizational culture, practices, and preferences dictate the emergence of barriers in the adaptation governance process. This dissertation research overall advances our understanding on the significance of multilevel governance approach in climate change adaptation governance. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2019

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol has been hailed as the grand compromise of the North-South divide over climate change mitigation for its ability to reconcile the economic demands of the North with the developmental needs of the South. Having been primarily analyzed from isolated economic, environmental, or developmental perspectives, the CDMs efficacy in bridging the North-South divide remains poorly understood. This research evaluates the CDM against three qualitative criteria focused on issues affecting Southern nations participation in international agreements. An examination of distributive and procedural issues characterizing the CDM shows that significant trade-offs exist between Northern and Southern interests under the CDM and suggests that the interests of the South are often sacrificed. On this basis, conclusions are drawn which point to the need for increased attention to and accommodation of Southern interests in the CDM specifically, and global climate change efforts more broadly.

A framework is developed for the assessment of climate change impacts on water resources systems. The applied techniques include: quantifying global climate model (GCM) skill over a range of time scales; developing future climate scenarios based on GCM data that are found to skillfully represent the observed climate over an historical baseline period; and using the climate scenarios together with hydrologic and water resources models to make assessments of the potential impacts and implications of climate change on water resources systems. A statistical analysis of GCM skill in East Africa shows that temperature is well represented in the GCMs at monthly to annual time scales. Precipitation is found to be much less reliable in the models and shows skill in fewer seasons and nodes than temperature. Eight climate scenarios, stemming from three global climate models and two atmospheric emissions scenarios, project temperature increases between 2 and 5 ° Celsius by the year 2080. Precipitation projections vary widely across models as well as regionally. The scenarios project changes in precipitation from -38% to +42%. The climate change impact methodology is applied to the Nile River Basin. It is shown that, in spite of widely varying precipitation projections, the major sub-basins of the Nile River will experience decreases in watershed runoff under all eight climate scenarios. Detailed water resources models are employed to assess the system wide response to the climate-induced hydrologic changes. The assessments indicate that water supply deficits will emerge by 2030 and continue to grow in frequency and magnitude by 2080. Additional impacts include reservoir depletion and reduced hydropower generation. An assessment of the river system response to basin development projects, including additional water storage and wetlands water conservation, indicates that adverse climate impacts may be mitigated for 30 to 40 years. The assessments demonstrate the relevance of climate change considerations to water resources management and the development of water policy.

The concept of &ldquo / climate change&rdquo / is, nowadays, seen as a global problem of the whole world. It has impacts on the economic, social, and environmental life of human beings, and also on the local life. As one of the sectors that are important for the local economies, &ldquo / tourism&rdquo / is vulnerable to climate change due to being sensitive to the factors of climate and weather. Therefore, to discuss the relation between the climate change and tourism is the aim of this thesis. In this regard, the context of &ldquo / the awareness of the actors&rdquo / about the impacts of the climate change becomes important. To evaluate the awareness of the actors, the research is focused on &ldquo / the response mechanisms&rdquo / that they develop. The hypothesis is that although the expected impact of climate change is very important, the level of awareness of the actors on this sector is rather limited and this leads to limited action to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on tourism. In this regard, in this research, the main purpose is identified as to discuss the impacts of climate change on tourism, and to evaluate the awareness of the actors and the response mechanisms. It is researched that whether the actors are aware of the current condition about climate change and tourism and whether the response mechanisms that actors develop are effective on the impacts of climate change on tourism. As a sample in Turkey, Antalya is defined as the case study area, and the impacts of climate change on tourism are examined, and the awareness of the actors is analyzed. It is displayed, by the results of the analysis, that which type of mechanisms the actors in Antalya have trend to develop about climate change impacts.