This study applies the gravity trade model to assess South Africa-Angola trade potential in the agricultural sector. A step-by-step example of the model's empirical implementation is also provided. It is found that the gravity model, with foundations in the physical sciences, is a useful instrument for the analysis of bilateral trade flows. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. The study also finds that the fixed effects model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, size of the economies, the oil price and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows. Overall, the simulation results indicate that there is a potential for trade in the agricultural sector between these two countries. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Magistro darbo tikslas yra ištirti prognozės modelius, leidžiančius prognozuoti valiutos kurso vertę į ateitį bei ištirti gautų rezultatų atitikimą realiai rinkos situacijai. Ištyrus prognozės metodus ir atradus patikimą algoritmą - jį užrašyti Java kalba ir pritaikyti Android OS valiutos kurso prognozei. Taip pat įgyvendinti programėlės funkcijas, kurios vartotojui leis pilnai atlikti norimas operacijas: konvertuoti valiutas viena kitos atžvilgiu, stebėti rinkoje pokytį, peržiūrėti istorinius valiutos duomenis, stebėti rinkos situaciją, kurti savo valiutos sąrašą. Rezultatai: ištirtas ir atrinktas prognozės algoritmas, pritaikytas Android OS programėlėje penkių dienų valiutos kursų prognozei. Sukurtos papildomos programėlės funkcijos panaudojant Android OS teikiamas sistemines galimybes. Suderinta vartotojo sąsaja su skirtingais įrenginiais egzistuojančiais rinkoje. / The research objective is to investigate the models for currency exchange rates forecast and examine the compliance of the observed forecast results with the real market situation. The study of prediction methods and the discovery of a reliable algorithm, are programmed in Java and Android OS to allow currency exchange rate forecasts on demand. Once forecasting model is developed, additional functionalities for Android OS device are created allowing the user to fully perform such operations as: to convert one currency to the other, monitor the change in the market, view historical currency data, to monitor the market situation and customize favorite currency list. Results: investigated and selected forecasting algorithm which was applied to Android OS mobile with a five-day forecast of exchange rates duration. Created additional app capabilities using Android system’s resources and functions. Designed user interface to work with multiple Android devices existing on the market today.

Fundamental to the future of space exploration is the development of advanced life support systems capable of maintaining crews for significant periods without re-supply from Earth. Bioregenerative life support systems harness natural ecosystem processes and employ plant photosynthesis and transpiration to produce food, supply oxygen, and regenerate water while consuming carbon dioxide. Proposed Lunar and Martian exploration has prompted interest into the effects of hypobaria on plant development. Reduced atmospheric pressure conditions will reduce the pressure gradient between the structure and the local environment thereby decreasing the engineering requirements, leakage and mass required to construct the growth facility. To establish the optimal conditions for reduced pressure plant growth structures it is essential to determine the atmospheric pressure limits required for plant development and growth. Due to its physiological importance, oxygen will compose a significant portion of this atmosphere. The effects of reduced atmospheric pressure and decreased oxygen partial pressures on plant germination, growth and development were assessed in the University of Guelph’s hypobaric plant growth chambers. Treatments included a range of total pressures from 10 to 98 kPa and oxygen partial pressures from 2 to 20 kPa. Results demonstrated that reduced atmospheric pressure had minimal effect on plant growth, net carbon exchange rate and transpiration if the physiologically important gases including carbon dioxide, oxygen and water vapour, were maintained above threshold levels. The reduction of oxygen partial pressures below 7 kPa had drastic consequences across all atmospheric pressures with poor germination, seedling establishment and growth. It is evident that the response of plants grown at reduced pressures from young seedlings differs from that of older plants that were established at ambient conditions and then subjected to the atmospheric adjustment. The young plant tissues adapt in response to the extreme conditions and maintain productivity despite the limited atmosphere. / Natural Science and Engineering Research Council, Canadian Space Agency, Ontario Graduate Student Program, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Ontario Innovation Trust

This dissertation contains two essays studying panel data econometric models. First, we consider the problem of estimating a nonparametric panel data models with fixed effects. We propose using the profile least squares method to concentrate out the fixed effects and then estimate the unknown function by the kernel method. We show that our proposed estimator is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. Monte Carlo simulations show that our proposed estimator performs well compared with several existing estimators. Second, we study the effects of Hong Kong’s fixed exchange rate against U.S. dollar using a novel panel data method. After the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, many of the Asia countries adopted flexible exchange rate policies while Hong Kong still keeps its fixed exchange rate. By comparing Hong Kong versus its major trading partners, we show that if, like other Asian countries, Hong Kong had adopted a float exchange rate policy in October 1998, Hong Kong’s (counterfactual) total value of exports would increase by 14.65 %. Similarly, Hong Kong’s total value of imports would increase about 31%. We conclude that Hong Kong dollar is overvalued by 9.34% due to its fixed exchange rate policy.

We provide a systematic comparison of the out-of-sample forecasts based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations for the euro against the US dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy and trading strategies in addition to standard loss minimization measures. When comparing predictive accuracy and profit measures, data snooping bias free tests are used. The results indicate that forecast combinations help to improve over benchmark trading strategies for the exchange rate against the US dollar and the British pound, although the excess return per unit of deviation is limited. For the euro against the Swiss franc or the Japanese yen, no evidence of generalized improvement in profit measures over the benchmark is found. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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This study applies the gravity trade model to assess South Africa-Angola trade potential in the agricultural sector. A step-by-step example of the model's empirical implementation is also provided. It is found that the gravity model, with foundations in the physical sciences, is a useful instrument for the analysis of bilateral trade flows. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. The study also finds that the fixed effects model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, size of the economies, the oil price and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows. Overall, the simulation results indicate that there is a potential for trade in the agricultural sector between these two countries. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

This paper examines the behavior of the regret-averse multinational firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The multinational firm simultaneously sells in the home market and exports to a foreign country. We characterize the multinational firm's regret-averse preferences by a modified utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. The extent of regret depends on the difference between the actual home currency profit and the maximum home currency profit attained by making the optimal production and export decisions had the multinational firm observed the true realization of the random spot exchange rate. We show that the conventional results that the multinational firm optimally produces less, sells more domestically, and export less abroad under uncertainty than under certainty holds if the multinational firm is not too regret averse. Using a simple binary model wherein the random spot exchange rate can take on either a low value or a high value with positive probability, we show that the multinational firm may optimally produce more, sell less domestically, and export more abroad under uncertainty than under certainty, particularly when the multinational firm is sufficiently regret averse and the low spot exchange rate is very likely to prevail.

High inflation economies have ultimately been successful in stabilising their prices using the exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Besides stabilization, these recent examples have shown boom-recession cycles, contrary to what can be expected from (pure) money-based stabilizations. Various theoretical explanations of such boom-cycles are discussed and a model of aggregate supply and demand generating such an outcome is developed. There the boom dynamics depend mainly on a slump in real interest rates and wage flexibility. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

(None) Technical Summary of Thesis: The topic of my thesis is currency crisis. Currency crises have been a recurrent feature of the international economy from the invention of paper money. They are not confined to particular economies or specific region. They take place in developed, emerging, and developing countries and are spread all over the globe. Countries that experience currency crises face economic losses that can be huge and disruptive. However, the exacted toll is not only financial and economic, but also human, social, and political. It is clear that the currency crisis is a real threat to financial stability and economic prosperity. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of currency crises for twenty OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. It systematically examines the role of economic fundamentals and contagion in the origins of currency crises and empirically attempts to identify the channels through which the crises are being transmitted. It also examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. The first chapter identifies the episodes of currency crisis in our data set. Determining true crisis periods is a vital step in the empirical studies and has direct impact on the reliability of their estimations and the relevant policy implications. We define a period as a crisis episode when the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, which consists of changes in exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates, exceeds a threshold. In order to minimize the concerns regarding the accuracy of identified crisis episodes, we apply extreme value theory, which is a more objective approach compared to other methods. In this chapter, we also select the reference country, which a country’s currency pressure index should be built around, in a more systematic way rather than by arbitrary choice or descriptive reasoning. The second chapter studies the probability of a currency exiting a tranquil state into a crisis state. There is an extensive literature on currency crises that empirically evaluate the roots and causes of the crises. Despite the interesting results of the current empirical literature, only very few of them account for the influence of time on the probability of crises. We use duration models that rigorously incorporate the time factor into the likelihood functions and allow us to investigate how the amount of time that a currency has already spent in the tranquil state affects the stability of a currency. Our findings show that high values of volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors (which mostly work through trade channels), unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy increases the hazard of a crisis. We make use of several robustness checks, including running our models on two different crisis episodes sets that are identified based on monthly and quarterly type spells. The third chapter examines the links between the incidence of currency crises and the choice of exchange rate regimes as well as the impact of capital market liberalization policies on the occurrence of currency crises. As in our previous paper, duration analysis is our methodology to study the probability of a currency crisis occurrence under different exchange rate regimes and capital mobility policies. The third chapter finds that there is a significant link between the choice of exchange rate regime and the incidence of currency crises in our sample. Nevertheless, the results are sensitive to the choice of the de facto exchange rate system. Moreover, in our sample, capital control policies appear to be helpful in preventing low duration currency crises. The results are robust to a wide variety of sample and models checks.