En m’appuyant sur la sociologie des attentes technoscientifiques et les études critiques du handicap, j’analyse dans cette thèse l’expérience de personnes diagnostiquées comme obèses ou obèses « morbides » ayant subi une chirurgie bariatrique (ou de perte de poids). Alors que la lutte contre l'obésité a longtemps mis l’accent sur les changements de mode de vie, les discours de santé publique ont pris un ton plus urgent à partir des années 2000, qualifiant l’obésité d’« épidémie » justifiant des interventions radicales. Parallèlement, le stigmate contre la graisse corporelle s’est intensifié, et le nombre de chirurgies bariatriques a connu une croissance exponentielle, notamment chez les femmes. Je défends que ces phénomènes concomitants doivent être interprétés dans le contexte d’une « économie de l’espoir » qui englobe les anticipations des promoteurs de la santé publique, des chercheurs en obésité et chirurgiens bariatriques, des personnes en situation d’obésité, et de leurs proches. Au sein de cette dynamique, la clinique bariatrique devient un lieu où se croisent et se heurtent plusieurs définitions de l’« obésité » et différentes priorités de santé. En me basant sur des entretiens semi-directifs menés avec des patientes bariatriques et des cliniciens, j’explore comment les patientes qui s’est manifesté de manière à la fois discursive, émotionnelle et matérielle, influençant leurs adoptent, rejettent ou réinterprètent les notions médicalisées de l’obésité. Je le fais en examinant les motivations des personnes en obésité à subir une chirurgie bariatrique, ainsi que les transformations physiques, physiologiques, identitaires et sociales qui découlent de ce processus. Je fais valoir que la décision de recourir à la chirurgie de perte de poids n’a pas pour seul objectif l’amélioration de leur santé actuelle et future, mais vise également à obtenir une corpulence conforme aux normes sociales, qui leur permet d’accéder à certains espaces communs et partagés et de remplir des rôles sociaux spécifiques. Je montre que les participantes ont fait l'expérience d’un stigmate attentes à l’égard de la chirurgie, ainsi que leurs expériences de ses effets multiples et parfois contradictoires. J’analyse comment cet objectif de normalisation corporelle est atteint au prix de l’acquisition de nouvelles formes de chronicité, dont la gestion reconfigure le rôle de la patiente et la relation entre la patiente et le médecin. En analysant les contradictions propres à la clinique de l’obésité, cette analyse réinterprète le processus de biomédicalisation comme une logique de substitution ou de déplacement de la chronicité plutôt que de normalisation ou d’optimisation. / Drawing on the sociology of technoscientific expectations and critical disability studies, this thesis investigates the experiences of individuals diagnosed with obesity or morbid obesity who have undergone bariatric (weight loss) surgery. While the fight against obesity has long emphasized lifestyle changes, public health discourse has taken on a more urgent tone since the early 2000s, labeling obesity as an "epidemic” justifying radical interventions. Concurrently, the stigma against excess body weight has intensified, and the number of bariatric surgeries has grown exponentially, particularly among women. I argue that these concurrent phenomena should be understood within the framework of an "economy of hope" that encompasses the expectations of public health advocates, obesity researchers, bariatric surgeons, individuals with obesity, and their closed ones. Within this dynamic, the bariatric clinic becomes a site where multiple definitions of "obesity" and different health priorities intersect and collide. Using semi-structured interviews with bariatric patients and clinicians, I investigate how patients either adopt, reject, or reinterpret medicalized notions of obesity. I achieve this by examining the motivations of individuals with obesity for choosing bariatric surgery and the ensuing physical, physiological, identity, and social transformations. I argue that the decision to undergo weight loss surgery is not solely driven by a desire to enhance current and future health but also to attain a body shape that aligns with societal norms, enabling access to shared spaces and the fulfillment of specific social roles. I demonstrate that participants experience a stigma that manifests itself in discursive, emotional, and material ways, shaping their expectations regarding surgery and their experiences of its multifaceted and at times contradictory effects. I analyze how the pursuit of bodily normalization leads to the acquisition of new forms of chronicity, which, in turn, reshapes the patient's role and the patient-physician relationship. By highlighting the contradictions within the clinic of obesity, this analysis reinterprets the process of biomedicalization as a logic of substitution or shifting chronicity rather than normalization or optimization.

Cette thèse a pour objectif de mettre en oeuvre un système de contrôle actif vibratoire du rayonnement acoustique (ASAC) sur les suspensions automobile dans le but de réduire le bruit de roulement. Premièrement, un banc de test constitué d'un quart de suspension automobile, ainsi qu'un véhicule Buick Century sont instrumentés de différents capteurs et actionneurs dans le but de caractériser ces systèmes à travers des fonctions de transfert. Ces fonctions de transfert primaires (entre l'excitation de route et les différents capteurs) et secondaires (entre différentes positions possibles des actionneurs de contrôle et les différents capteurs) constituent le modèle expérimental relatif à chacun des deux montages élaborés dans notre laboratoire. Dans le but de reproduire une excitation réaliste de roulement, un véhicule Chevrolet Epica LS est instrumenté puis des tests routiers sont réalisés afin de mesurer le bruit de roulement à l'intérieur de la cabine ainsi que les accélérations injectées sur le moyeu de la roue par les irrégularités de la route. À l'aide d'un modèle inverse, les excitations en force requises pour reproduire le bruit de roulement sur le du banc de test et sur le véhicule Buick Century sont déterminées. Deuxièmement, une étude des chemins de transmission vibro-acoustiques du bruit de roulement est menée au moyen des taux de transmissibilité. Ces taux de transmissibilité sont caractérisés entre 20 et 500 Hz dans le but de déterminer les chemins dominants de propagation des vibrations injectées par les irrégularités de la route à travers les points d'ancrage entre la suspension et le châssis puis leur rayonnement à l'intérieur de la cabine. Troisièmement, un algorithme d'optimisation de la configuration (position et orientation) des actionneurs de contrôle est élaboré. Cet algorithme utilise le modèle expérimental identifié sur le banc de test et sur le véhicule Buick Century . L'algorithme conçu combine le contrôle optimal et l'algorithme génétique afin d'optimiser la position et l'orientation, de chaque actionneur de contrôle en minimisant une fonction coût. Différentes configurations de contrôle et différents objectifs de minimisation (vibrations des points d'ancrage, pression acoustique virtuelle et pression acoustique réelle à l'intérieur de la cabine) sont étudiés puis réalisés expérimentalement sur les montages afin d'évaluer la performance du contrôle actif par anticipation en fonction de leur capacité à réduire le bruit de roulement à l'intérieur de la cabine. L'implantation d'un contrôleur par anticipation FX-LMS sur la suspension avant côté conducteur sur le Buick Century en utilisant des actionneurs inertiels comme actionneurs de contrôle a mené à des atténuations de niveau de pression acoustique de plus de 10 dB sur certaines fréquences. Finalement, des conditions de roulement réalistes à 50 km/h sont simulées sur le véhicule complet Buick Century . La configuration des actionneurs de contrôle est optimisée sur chacune des quatre suspensions du véhicule. Les résultats de contrôle optimal montrent que la pressions acoustique peut être réduite globalement de plus de 17 dB(A) entre 20 et 500 Hz.Cette réduction de bruit de roulement en utilisant l'approche de contrôle vibratoire du rayonnement acoustique est globale à l'intérieur de la cabine et donc perçue par tous les utilisateurs (conducteur et passagers).

Syfte: Syftet med detta arbete är att öka förståelsen för hur företag arbetar med strategi och taktik för att skapa förväntan på marknader innan en produkts premiär. Hur det går till när förväntan skapas innan produktpremiär, utan att det slår över och får negativa konsekvenser för produkten eller tjänsten, är ett område som kan anses vara outforskat. Området är en viktig källa till framgång eller fall för marknadsföring och lansering av nya produkter, vilket gör det relevant och intressant, både teoretiskt och praktiskt. Metod: I denna studie har vi använt oss av en kvalitativ forskningsmetod, semistrukturerade intervjuer. Respondenterna är marknadsförare och produktansvariga med en bred bakgrund från olika typer av företag. De var hälften kvinnor, hälften män i olika åldrar. Vid analyseringen användes tematisk analys, då vi kodade intervjuerna för att sedan bilda teman. Resultat & slutsats: Resultatet som har framkommit i denna studie är att företagen lägger stor vikt vid att skapa och förankra planer internt och hos samarbetspartners innan en produktlansering. Samtidigt måste företaget arbeta med förståelse för och val av målgrupp, för att med dessa bitar på plats kunna leverera information till konsumenterna som skapar förväntan på marknader. Om någon del inte är välgjord ökar riskerna till att det blir komplikationer för lanseringen och uppbyggd förväntan riskerar att sänkas. Är grundarbetet välgjort har företagen goda förutsättningar att skapa förväntan. Sedermera är arbetet med att skapa förväntan en process som startar långt innan premiär. Examensarbetets bidrag: Kunskapsbidraget för denna studie är en unik insikt och översikt över hur företag arbetar med strategi och taktik för att skapa förväntan på marknader innan en produkts premiär. Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Ytterligare undersöka konsumenternas perspektiv om detta ämne och deras vilja att använda deras röst. Undersöka hur negativ buzz i slutändan kan bidra till produktframgång. Undersöka skillnaderna mellan tillverkare, grossister och butik när det kommer till kompetens och förståelse för strategier för att skapa förväntan genom sociala medier. / Aim: The purpose of this paper is to increase understanding of how companies work with strategy and tactics to create anticipation in markets. The way in which anticipation is created before the product premiere, without it having a negative impact on the product or service success, is an area that can be considered unexplored. The area is an important source of success or failure for marketing and launching new products, which makes it relevant and interesting, both theoretically and practically. Method: In this study we have used a qualitative research method, semi-structured interviews. The respondents are marketers and product managers with a broad background from different types of companies. They were an equal proportion of women and men of different ages. Thematic analysis was used for coding the interviews and then forming themes. Result & Conclusions: The result that has emerged in this study is that the companies put great emphasis on creating and establish plans internally and with partners before a product launch. At the same time, the organization must work to create an understanding of and choose a target group, in order to be able to supply information to consumers who create anticipations in markets. If any part is not well done, the risk increases that there will be complications for the launch and built-up anticipation risks being lowered. If the groundwork is well done, the companies have good opportunities to create anticipations. Later on, the work of creating anticipation is a process that starts long before the premiere. Contribution of the thesis: The contribution for this study is a unique insight and overview of how companies work with strategy and tactics to create anticipation in markets before a product's premiere. Suggestions for future research: Further explore consumer perspective on this topic and their willingness to use their voice. Examine how negative buzz can ultimately contribute to product success. Examine the differences between manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers when it comes to skills and understanding of strategies to create anticipation.

La thèse s’interroge sur l’articulation entre la plus-value foncière et l’infrastructure routière dans la fabrique urbaine à travers le cas de la ville de Tananarive. L’analyse est focalisée sur les effets des infrastructures dans la valorisation des terrains sis à proximité des nouvelles routes construites au début de l’année 2000 à Tananarive. En effet, dans un contexte de croissance urbaine et de faible disponibilité des terrains constructibles, la pression sur le gisement foncier autour des nouvelles routes qui traversent des rizières et des marais est accrue. Cependant, l’analyse de la transformation du gisement foncier révèle l’anticipation de réalisation des infrastructures routières. Il s’agit précisément de l’anticipation des plus-values foncières. Si les effets des infrastructures sur le prix immobilier et la valorisation foncière sont bien documentés, l’analyse des effets portant sur l’anticipation foncière est moins bien approfondie, notamment pour les villes en développement comme Tananarive. La thèse apporte des éléments de réponse à ces lacunes en croisant l’analyse la dynamique historique du lien entre infrastructure routière et rente foncière dans le développement de la ville de Tananarive et les instruments (PPP) ou les stratégies mobilisées par les acteurs urbains (publics, privés) autour des nouvelles routes. En effet, l’effet de valorisation foncière des nouvelles routes résultent de dynamiques historiques de l’évolution de la ville et des stratégies spatio-temporelles des acteurs urbains autour des infrastructures / This thesis deals with the question of articulation between infrastructure transport and land value in urban making. It examines the impact of road infrastructure on property value close new road infrastructure in Antananarivo (capital of Madagascar). In the context of land pressure because of the lack of land availability and growing urbanization, urban sprawl around the new road have been transforming hectares of marshes and lowlands used for rice-growing. But the conversion process of this land show the expectation of the road infrastructure impact on property value which have influenced urban making. Although the research of infrastructure impact on house’s price or land value is well documented and concentrated in the case of western cities, no more research study the case of developing cities and little attention has been given to the impact of expectation property and land values. By studying the land strategy of actors (public and private actors) through public policy instruments: the use of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) as tool for negotiation in urban making and infrastructure project and the developing of town planning documents nearby new road infrastructure area, this work point out how do actors negotiates public policy instruments to create property and land values and expect it? But this impact is part of the historical dynamic of the city’s development. In fact, we suppose that the effect of road infrastructure on land value depends on the historical context of urban sprawl by road and on land strategy of anticipation of actors by public policy instrumentation. Keywords: Land Value, Private-Public Partnership, Coalition, Road Infrastructure, Urban Sprawl, Anticipatio

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-03-21T12:45:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Pedro Losa Loureiro Valim.pdf: 1056784 bytes, checksum: b1f1b53023fe8412b77acd8444f45a0d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-21T12:45:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Pedro Losa Loureiro Valim.pdf: 1056784 bytes, checksum: b1f1b53023fe8412b77acd8444f45a0d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-07 / The present dissertation concentrates the analysis on the institute of stabilization of the decisions taken in anticipation of tutelage, granted in antecedent character, normative novelty introduced in the national juridical order with the advent of the New Code of Civil Procedure. In the light of the Federal Constitution, there is a need for a fast, adequate and effective judicial protection, responding to the collective's wishes, in the face of a growing judicialization of litigation. With due regard to the constitutional principle of judicial review, in accordance with subsection XXXV of article 5 of the Federal Constitution, the law can not exclude from the review of the Judiciary an injury or threat to any right. It is not enough, however, for the implementation of the constitutional command, to ensure only formal access to the Judiciary. An appropriate, fast and effective judicial response must also be provided. Based on material and procedural summarization, differentiated jurisdictional protection techniques, in the conception of the Italian teacher Andrea Proto Pisani, represents a response to the aspirations of society. In agreement with the French and Italian laws, there is a tendency towards autonomy and independence of summary judicial protection, if both parties are therefore in favor. It is not always advantageous for the parties to be obliged to be submitted to the exhaustion of cognition and the continuation of the procedural legal relationship. In certain cases, both the plaintiff and the defendant are satisfied with the summary judicial protection granted, and therefore have no interest in obtaining a state response that is fulfilled in exaggerated cognition. The autonomy and independence of summary judicial protection, in this scenario, represents an alternative to assure the rights in a reasonable time, allowing more effectiveness and celerity. The present dissertation, in the light of these characteristics, analyzes the stabilization of the decisions taken in anticipation of tutelage, granted in antecedent character, as well as its compatibility with the constitutional model of civil process / A presente dissertação concentra a análise sobre o instituto da estabilização da tutela antecipada concedida em caráter antecedente, novidade normativa introduzida no ordenamento jurídico nacional com o advento do Novo Código de Processo Civil. À luz da Constituição Federal, constata-se a necessidade de uma tutela jurisdicional célere, adequada e efetiva, respondendo-se aos anseios da coletividade, em face a uma crescente judicialização dos litígios. Com arrimo no princípio constitucional da inafastabilidade jurisdicional, nos moldes do inciso XXXV do artigo 5º da Constituição Federal, a lei não pode excluir da apreciação do Poder Judiciário lesão ou ameaça a direito. Não é suficiente, todavia, para a concretização do comando constitucional, assegurar apenas formalmente o acesso à justiça. Deve-se viabilizar uma resposta jurisdicional adequada, célere e efetiva. Com arrimo na sumarização da cognição e do procedimento, a tutela jurisdicional diferenciada, na concepção do professor italiano Andrea Proto Pisani, representa uma resposta aos anseios da sociedade. A par de um cotejo com o direito francês e italiano, constata-se a existência de uma tendência à autonomização e à independência da tutela jurisdicional sumária, em assim se manifestando volitivamente favoráveis ambas as partes. Nem sempre é vantajoso para as partes serem obrigadas a se submeter ao exaurimento da cognição e ao prosseguimento da relação jurídica processual. Em determinadas hipóteses, tanto autor quanto réu se contentam com a tutela jurisdicional sumária concedida, não possuindo, por conseguinte, interesse na obtenção de resposta estatal fulcrada em cognição exauriente. A autonomia e a independência da tutela jurisdicional sumária, neste cenário, representa uma alternativa para a concretização dos comandos de celeridade e efetividade processuais. A presente dissertação, à luz de tais caracteres, analisa a estabilização da tutela antecipada concedida em caráter antecedente, bem como sua compatibilidade com o modelo constitucional de processo civil

Daily rhythms in physiology and behaviour are orchestrated by theautonomously rhythmic cells of the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN).Restricting food intake to the rest phase of nocturnal rodents, leads to thedevelopment of meal anticipatory behaviour, corticosterone and bodytemperature. Given that lesions to the SCN fail to abolish meal anticipation, asecond oscillator of unknown location, referred to as the food-entrainableoscillator (FEO) is thought to exist. Although the site of the FEO is unknown,several hypothalamus nuclei, including the dorsomedial hypothalamus(DMH) are thought to play a role in meal anticipation. Given thatadrenalectomy is reported to abolish meal anticipation, an intact HPA axis isalso thought to contribute to the functioning of the FEO. Some forms ofobesity are characterised by high basal levels of circulating corticosterone. Inaddition, limited access to high fat diet, fails to induce the development ofrobust meal anticipation in rats. During our initial studies, the effect of a standard and 45% high fat diet onthe development of meal anticipatory behaviour and hypothalamic c-Fosexpression were investigated. Restricted access to high fat diet led toattenuation of meal anticipation compared to those fed standard diet. Thiswas concurrent with a failure to develop an anticipatory rise in DMH c-Fosexpression. A meal anticipatory rise in corticosterone is thought to benecessary for the presence of meal anticipation as well as adaptation ofmetabolism to daily restricted feeding. In the next set of studies, weconfirmed that restricted access to standard diet leads to the development ofa meal anticipatory rise in plasma corticosterone. In contrast we observed adramatic post-anticipatory rise in plasma corticosterone in rats givenrestricted access to the 45% high fat diet. We hypothesised that the highcorticosterone levels resulting from high fat diet were a contributing factor tothe lack of meal anticipation in high fat fed rats. With the aid of apharmacokinetic study, a suitable experiment was designed for daily dosingof a potent glucocorticoid receptor antagonist, RU486, with the aim ofrescuing meal anticipation in high fat fed rats. Interestingly, treatment withRU486 successfully rescued meal anticipation in high fat fed rats, butattenuated meal anticipation in standard diet restricted fed rats. In the finalseries of studies the effect of diet and feeding regime on glucose toleranceand metabolism were investigated. High fat feeding was found to reduceglucose tolerance in both ad lib and restricted fed rats, with RU486 treatmentimproving glucose tolerance in a time dependant manner. Restricted accessto food was found to induce post satiation lipogenesis in both standard dietfed and to a lesser extent in high fat fed rats, an effect which may bebeneficial in reducing obesity. Overall the results provide further insight intothe complex role of corticosterone in promoting or preventing mealanticipatory behaviour. An anticipatory rise in plasma corticosterone isrequired for meal anticipation, as repeated daily dosing of RU486 inhibit mealanticipation. The high basal levels of corticosterone in high fat fed rats mayprevent meal anticipation, insulin secretion and post-satiation lipogenesiswhich may in fact be a homeostatic mechanism to prevent obesity. Nonetheless, treatment with RU486 rescues behavioural meal anticipationand glucose tolerance.

FundaÃÃo Cearense de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnolÃgico / Neste trabalho foram realizadas simulaÃÃes do transiente hidrÃulico com vÃlvula antecipadora de onda com abertura e fechamento completo e nÃo instantÃneo, como mecanismo de alÃvio para o golpe de arÃete. A vÃlvula deve situar-se prÃximo ao conjunto motor-bomba. Assim, a vÃlvula antecipadora serà aplicada ao segundo nà das adutoras consideradas, utilizando-se para o cÃlculo o software UFC6, produzido no Grupo de Estudos em HidrÃulica Computacional da Universidade Federal do CearÃ. A vÃlvula antecipadora de onda inicia sua abertura quando a pressÃo mÃnima de regulagem à excedida, logo apÃs a passagem da onda de baixa pressÃo. O fluido expulso deve ser disposto em um manancial, ou armazenado em um reservatÃrio que comporte todo esse volume. Neste trabalho, a vÃlvula antecipadora de onda à modelada utilizando a Ãgua como fluido. O fluido (Ãgua) à expulso segundo um modelo de descarga com pressÃo externa atmosfÃrica. As simulaÃÃes aqui descritas utilizam o mÃtodo das caracterÃsticas. Devido à falta de estudos nessa Ãrea, este trabalho visa contribuir para o dimensionamento de vÃlvulas antecipadora de onda e servir como base para trabalhos subsequentes. / In this work was made Hydraulic Transient simulations with anticipation valve with opening and closing complete and non-instantaneous, as a mechanism of relief for water hammer. The valve must be located near the pump. Thus in this work, the valve in advance shall be applied to the second node of the pipelines in question. The software UFC6 was used for estimates the Transient and was produced by the Study Group on Computational Fluid of UFC. Anticipation is a mechanism for relief from water hammer that starts opening when the low pressure of regulation is exceeded, after the passage of the wave of low pressure. The fluid expelled must be placed on a spring or stored in a reservoir in order to accommodate the volume of fluid to be expelled. In this work, the Anticipation Valve is modeling into the water as a fluid. It uses the method of characteristics for simulations. Due to the lack of studies in this area, this research aims to contribute to the design of anticipation valves and a basis for further work.

In this Thesis, I systematize, clarify, and expand the current theory of emotion based on the principles of predictive processing-the interoceptive inference view of emotion-so as to show the following: (1) as it stands, this view is problematic. (2) Once expanded, the view in question can deal with its more pressing problems, and it compares favourably to competing accounts. Thus, the interoceptive inference view of emotion stands out as a plausible theory of emotion. According to the predictive processing (PP) framework, all what the brain does, in all its functions, is to minimize its precision-weighted prediction error (PE) (Clark, 2013, 2016; Hohwy, 2013). Roughly, PE consist in the difference between the sensory signals expected (and generated) from the top-down and the actual, incoming sensory signals. Now, in the PP framework, visual percepts are formed by minimizing visual PE in a specific manner: via visual perceptual inference. That is, the brain forms visual percepts in a top-down fashion by predicting its incoming lower-level sensory signals from higher-level models of the likely (hidden) causes of those visual signals. Such models can be seen as putting forward content-specifying hypotheses about the object or event responsible for triggering incoming sensory activity. A contentful percept is formed once a certain hypothesis achieves to successfully match, and thus supress, current lower-level sensory signals. In the interoceptive inference approach to interoception (Seth, 2013, 2015), the principles of PP have been extended to account for interoception, i.e., the perception of our homeostatic, physiological condition. Just as perception in the visual domain arises via visual perceptual inference, the interoceptive inference approach holds that perception of the inner, physiological milieu arises via interoceptive perceptual inference. Now, what might be called the interoceptive inference theory of valence (ITV) holds that the interoceptive inference approach can be used so as to account for subjective feeling states in general, i.e., mental states that feel good or bad-i.e., valenced mental states. According to ITV, affective valence arises by way of interoceptive perceptual inference. On the other hand, what might be called the interoceptive inference view of emotion (IIE) holds that the interoceptive inference approach can be used so as to account for emotions per se (e.g., fear, anger, joy). More precisely, IIE holds that, in direct analogy to the way in which visual percepts are formed, emotions arise from interoceptive predictions of the causes of current interoceptive afferents. In other words, emotions per se amount to interceptive percepts formed via higher-level, content-specifying emotion hypotheses. In this Thesis, I aim to systematize, clarify, and expand the interoceptive inference approach to interoception, in order to show that: (1) contrary to non-sensory theories of affective valence, valence is indeed constituted by interoceptive perceptions, and that interoceptive percepts do arise via interoceptive perceptual inference. Therefore, ITV holds. (2) Considering that IIE exhibits problematic assumptions, it should be amended. In this respect, I will argue that emotions do not arise via interoceptive perceptual inference (as IIE claims), since this assumes that there must be regularities pertaining to emotion in the physiological domain. I will suggest that emotions arise instead by minimizing interoceptive PE in another fashion. That is, emotions arise via external interoceptive active inference: by sampling and modifying the external environment in order to change an already formed interoceptive percept (which has been formed via interoceptive perceptual inference). That is, emotions are specific strategies for regulating affective valence. More precisely, I will defend the view that a certain emotion E amounts to a specific strategy for minimizing interoceptive PE by way of a specific set of stored knowledge of the counterfactual relations that obtain between (possible) actions and its prospective interoceptive, sensory consequences ("if I act in this manner, interoceptive signals should evolve in such-and-such way"). An emotion arises when such knowledge is applied in order to regulate valence.

Cette thèse propose une infrastructure cognitive permettant de modéliser les comportements sensori-moteurs animaux et humains. La réflexion théorique ayant conduit à cette infrastructure s'inspire du cadre philosophique interactiviste et du paradigme de l'énaction : tout système est représenté par un ensemble de processus actifs, en interaction permanente avec leur environnement propre, ce qui inclut leur influence mutuelle. Tout organisme vivant ou système cognitif peut ainsi être décomposé de manière fractale, chaque niveau d'émergence reposant sur les mêmes principes. Ces principes aujourd'hui largement répandus sont apparus durant l'évolution des espèces vivantes. L'assimilation, la régulation, l'anticipation ou encore la coordination ont ainsi permis à des processus en concurrence pour des ressources limitées de coopérer, se développer et se maintenir à travers les âges. Cette évolution conjointe des conditions environnementales et des structures internes a conduit aux organismes modernes, capables de s'adapter à un environnement génétiquement imprévisible et d'une complexité croissante.<br /><br />Un modèle mathématique utilisant le formalisme des systèmes complexes est détaillé, ainsi que son implémentation informatique. La dynamique de l'agent y est modélisée par un champ d'activité sous l'influence permanente d'anticipations internes et de sensations externes. Le comportement global de l'agent résulte alors de la coordination implicite et stable de processus interactifs localisés. A ce niveau, le modèle étend et complète les réseaux de neurones artificiels et les modèles probabilistes classiques. Cette caractéristique essentielle permet d'appliquer le modèle à des domaines variés et d'unifier tous les niveaux de la cognition. Le modèle est validé par un ensemble d'applications s'étendant de la satisfaction de besoins physiologiques à la manipulation de systèmes mécaniques, en passant par la perception auditive et visuelle. Enfin, et afin de pouvoir étendre ce type de modèles à des problèmes plus complexes dans le futur, des contributions techniques touchant à l'optimisation et à la parallélisation des algorithmes sont développées.

Background: Forecasting is an instrument that the managers rely upon for their anticipations of the future. Subcontractors control their operations according to the forecast volumes provided by the telecom mobile network equipment suppliers. The information in the forecasts is however not sufficient. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to identify and test relevant and available market indicators for prediction of future demand fluctuations on the telecom mobile network equipment market. Realisation: During a number of interviews, factors that are driving the network equipment market were clarified. The aim of this part was to identify possible market indicators. Hypotheses were set up to test the chosen indicators. In the second part, the indicators were tested statistically. Finally, the theoretical and logical support of the results was discussed. Result: To predict future movements in network equipment demand, the market indicators should focus on the telecom mobile operators, and their ability, need, and willingness to make new investments. The market indicators proven to be of most importance after the regression analyses were long-term market interest rates and telecom corporate bond indices.