The spread between interest rate and sovereign bond rate is commonly used in- dicator for country's probability to default. Existing literature proposes many different potential spread determinants but fails to agree on which of them are important. As a result, there is a considerable uncertainty about the cor- rect model explaining the spread. We address this uncertainty by employing Bayesian Model Averaging method (BMA). The BMA technique attempts to consider all the possible combinations of variables and averages them using a model fit measure as weights. For this empirical exercise, we consider 20 different explanatory variables for a panel of 47 countries for the 1980-2010 period. Most of the previously suggested determinants were attributed high inclusion probabilities. Only the "foreign exchange reserves growth" and the "exports growth" scored low by their inclusion probabilities. We also find a role of variables previously not included in the literature's spread determinants - "openness" and "unemployment" which rank high by the inclusion probability. These results are robust to a wide range of both parameter and model priors. JEL Classification C6, C8, C11, C51, E43 Keywords Sovereign Spread Determinants, Model Uncer- tainty, Bayesian Model Averaging Author's e-mail semanv()gmail()com...

Inflation is one of the often used monetary indicators in conducting monetary policy. Even though money supply is an essential determinant of inflation, it is not used in inflation modeling. Currently, output gap is considered as most predicative variable. This thesis brings the empirical evidence on the hypothesis of money supply carrying more information on estimating inflation than the output gap. It is provided on the case of 16 developed European economies using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA is a comprehensive approach that deals with the model uncertainty and thus solves the variable selection problem. The results of analysis confirmed that money supply includes more information of inflation than the output gap and thus should be used in inflation modeling. These outcomes are robust towards prior selection and high correlation of some variables.

The model uncertainty is a phenomenon where general consensus about the form of specific model is unclear. Stock returns perfectly meet this condition, as extensive literature offers diverse methods and potential drivers without a clear winner among them. Relatively recently, averaging techniques emerged as a possible solution to such scenarios. The two major averaging branches, Bayesian (BMA) and Frequentist (FMA) averaging, naturally deal with uncertainty by averaging over all model candidates rather than choosing the "best" one of them. We focus on FMA and apply this method to our data from U.S. market about S&P 500 index, that I help to explain with the set of eleven explanatory variables chosen in accordance with related literature. To preserve a real-world applicability, I use rolling window scheme to regularly update data in the fitting model for quarterly based re- estimation. Consequently, predictions are obtained with the use of most recent data. Firstly, we find out that simple historical average model can be beaten with a standard model selection approach based on AIC value, with variables as Dividend Yield, Earnings ratio, and Book-to-Market value proving consistently as most significant across quarterly models. With FMA techniques, I was not able to consistently beat the benchmark...

Ce travail s’inscrit dans le contexte général de l’ingénierie tissulaire du cartilage (culture in vitro) bien que la physique employée puisse s’appliquer à d’autres domaines. Après un rappel du modèle macroscopique de dispersion réactive obtenu en employant la prise de moyenne volumique, les problèmes de fermeture sont résolus numériquement afin de déterminer la macro-dispersion. Les solutions numériques sont tout d’abord validées dans des cas sans advection et/ou sans réaction. L’étude de la dispersion passive (sans réaction) sur des micro-géométries simples illustre la dépendance des coefficients de dispersion macroscopiques vis-à-vis de la géométrie (porosité, croissance directionnelle ou homothétique). Enfin, la simulation du cas complet (incluant la réaction) nous a permis de montrer l’influence de plusieurs paramètres : nombre cinétique, nombre de Sherwood, structure géométrique microscopique. / Abstract

Este trabalho descreve o projeto, a construção e a avaliação de um digitalizador de sinais controlado por microprocessador, desenvolvido para ser utilizado em Tomografia por Ressonância Magnética Nuclear, TORM. O digitalizador apresenta dois canais de entrada com digitalização simultânea em 256, 512 ou 1024 palavras por canal e com taxa de amostragem máxima de 22,7 Khz. A resolução é de 12 bits com conversão analógico/digital por aproximação sucessiva. Não há controles manuais o que exige um computador hospedeiro para o ajuste de parâmetros via interface de comunicação paralela destinada para este fim. Opcionalmente pode-se utilizar uma interface serial do tipo RS232C-EIA operando com velocidade máxima de 9600 bauds. O equipamento efetua o processamento local da média acumulativa do sinal, técnica empregada para melhorar a relação sinal/ruído no caso de ruído aleatório. Um circuito dedicado à monitoração permite que se visualize em monitor X-Y tanto o sinal como a sua média. No caso da média, por ela ser acumulativa, há um ajuste automático de escala / This work describes the design, construction and evaluation of a microprocessor controlled digitizer developed to be used in Magnetic Resonance Tomography or Imaging, MRI. The digitizer presents two input channels with simultaneous digitalization in 256, 512 or 1024 words per channel with a sample rate up to 22.7 Khz. A resolution of 12 bits is obtained with successive approximation A/D conversion. There are no manual controls. So a host computer is needed to adjust the parameters through a parallel communication interface available for this purpose. Optionally, a RS232-EIA type serial interface may be used, operating at speeds up to 9600 bauds. Signal average can be processed locally by the equipment. This technique is used to improve the signal to noise ratio in case of random noise. A dedicated circuit permits the visualization of the signal and or its average on an x-y monitor. To monitor cumulative averaged data an automatic scale adjustment is provided

In this paper, we examine the determinants of outward FDI from four major OECD investors, namely, the US, Germany, France, and the Netherlands, to 129 developing countries classified under five regions over the period 1995-2008. Our goal is to distinguish whether the motivation for FDI differs among these investors in developing countries. Rather than relying on specific theories of FDI determinants, we examine them all simultaneously by employing Bayesian model averaging (BMA). This approach permits us to select the most appropriate model (or combination of models) that governs FDI allocation and to distinguish robust FDI determinants. We find that no single theory governs the decision of OECD FDI in developing countries but a combination of theories. In particular, OECD investors search for destinations with whom they have established intensive trade relations and that offer a qualified labor force. Low wages and attractive tax rates are robust investment criteria too, and a considerable share of FDI is still resource-driven. Overall, investors show fairly similar strategies in the five developing regions.

L'objectif est d'élaborer un nouveau procédé de fabrication de mousses métalliques par voie de fonderie en modélisant l'infiltration et la solidification d'un métal liquide dans un milieu poreux. La modélisation est faite en deux étapes.Tout d'abord, à l'échelle locale un brin de la mousse métallique est considéré comme un tube capillaire et l'infiltration et solidification d'un métal liquide dans un moule cylindrique est étudiée. Deuxièmement,le modèle macroscopique de la solidification diffusive d'un métal liquide dans un milieu poreux est obtenu par prise de moyenne volumique. Le modèle local est codée dans un outil CFD opensource et trois études paramétriques ont été faites permettant la détermination des relations de la longueur et le temps d'infiltration en fonction de paramètres de fonctionnement. La modélisation de la solidification d’un métal liquide dans un milieu poreux est simplifié en considérant que le moule est complètement saturé par un métal liquide au repos,par suite la solidification se produit par diffusion pure (pas de convection). L'équilibre thermique local (LTE) est considéré entre les phases solide et liquide du métal tandis qu'un non équilibre thermique local (LTNE) est retenue entre la phase métallique et le moule. Les problèmes de fermeture associés ainsi que le problème macroscopique ont été résolus numériquement. / The objective of this work is to elaborate a new manufacturing process of metal foams via casting by modelling the infiltration and solidification of liquid metal inside a porous medium.However, due to the complexity of this problem the study is divided into two steps. First, at local scale one strut of the metal foam is considered as a capillary tube and the infiltration and solidification of liquid metal inside a cylindrical mould is studied. Second, a macroscopic model of diffusive solidification is derived using the volume average method. The local model is coded in an open source CFD tool and three parametric studies were done where the relations between the infiltration length and time as function of the operating parameters are determined. The modelling of the solidification of liquid metal inside a porous medium is simplified by considering that the mould is fully saturated by liquid metal at rest, solidification occurs by pure diffusion. Local thermal equilibrium (LTE) is considered between the solid and liquid phases of the metal while local thermal non equilibrium (LTNE) is retained between the metallic mixture and the mould. The associated closure problems as well as the macroscopic problem were numerically solved.

La pyrolyse est la décomposition thermochimique de la biomasse en gaz de synthèse valorisables en biocarburants. Cette technologie, propre et renouvelable, nécessite aujourd’hui des efforts de recherche et de développement afin de prouver sa compétitivité par rapport aux autres sources d’énergie. L’objectif de cette thèse est de développer un modèle macroscopique de la pyrolyse en utilisant la méthode de prise de moyenne volumique. Le modèle sera ensuite utilisé pour faire des études numériques afin de caractériser le procédé et améliorer les performances des réacteurs. Une approche en deux temps a été établie afin d’atteindre notre objectif. D’abord, des modèles macroscopiques d’écoulements à masse volumique variable en milieu poreux ont été développés. Ce type d’écoulements est similaire à celui mis en jeu en pyrolyse pour deux deux raisons: la masse volumique varie sous l’effet de gradients forts de température et le réacteur de pyrolyse peut être considéré comme un milieu poreux à double porosité (porosité à l’échelle du lit et porosité à l’échelle de la particule). Les résultats théoriques ont montré que les équations de conservation macroscopiques (continuité, quantité de mouvement et énergie) et les propriétés effectives (masse volumique, perméabilité et diffusivité thermique) font apparaitre de nouveaux termes résultants de la variation de densité. La forme explicite de ces termes a été établie et validée par simulations numériques. Les résultats obtenus ont été utilisés dans un deuxième temps afin de développer un modèle macroscopique de la pyrolyse. / Pyrolysis is a thermo-chemical conversion of biomass into bio-fuels. This technology has not been fully developed and its competitiveness against other sources of energy is yet to be proven. The aim of this work is to derive a macroscopic model of pyrolysis by means of volume averaging method. The obtained macroscopic model can then be used to conduct fast and low-cost numerical simulations to characterize the process and improve the reactor efficiency. To achieve our objective, a two-steps methodology has been established. First, the fundamental problem of variable density flow in porous media has been investigated. The physical phenomena in this kind of problem are very similar to those involved in pyrolysis for two reasons: the fluid density varies due to high temperature gradients and the pyrolysis reactor can be considered as a double porosity medium (porosity at the reactor scale and porosity at the biomass particle scale). The obtained macroscopic conservation equations (continuity, momentum and energy) and the effective properties (density, permeability and thermal diffusivity) contain additional terms resulting from the fluid density variation. The explicit form of these terms has been established and their components have been computed. The resulting models of the first step have then been used to develop a macroscopic model of the pyrolysis in the second part of our study.

Cette thèse porte sur la dynamique des grandes échelles des écoulements géophysiques turbulents, en particulier sur leur organisation en écoulements parallèles orientés dans la direction est-ouest (jets zonaux). Ces structures ont la particularité d'évoluer sur des périodes beaucoup plus longues que la turbulence qui les entoure. D'autre part, on observe dans certains cas, sur ces échelles de temps longues, des transitions brutales entre différentes configurations des jets zonaux (multistabilité). L'approche proposée dans cette thèse consiste à moyenner l'effet des degrés de liberté turbulents rapides de manière à obtenir une description effective des grandes échelles spatiales de l'écoulement, en utilisant les outils de moyennisation stochastique et la théorie des grandes déviations. Ces outils permettent d'étudier à la fois les attracteurs, les fluctuations typiques et les fluctuations extrêmes de la dynamique des jets. Cela permet d'aller au-delà des approches antérieures, qui ne décrivent que le comportement moyen des jets.Le premier résultat est une équation effective pour la dynamique lente des jets, la validité de cette équation est étudiée d'un point de vue théorique, et les conséquences physiques sont discutées. De manière à décrire la statistique des évènements rares tels que les transitions brutales entre différentes configurations des jets, des outils issus de la théorie des grandes déviations sont employés. Des méthodes originales sont développées pour mettre en œuvre cette théorie, ces méthodes peuvent par exemple être appliquées à des situations de multistabilité. / This thesis deals with the dynamics of geophysical turbulent flows at large scales, more particularly their organization into east-west parallel flows (zonal jets). These structures have the particularity to evolve much slower than the surrounding turbulence. Besides, over long time scales, abrupt transitions between different configurations of zonal jets are observed in some cases (multistability). Our approach consists in averaging the effect of fast turbulent degrees of freedom in order to obtain an effective description of the large scales of the flow, using stochastic averaging and the theory of large deviations. These tools provide theattractors, the typical fluctuations and the large fluctuations of jet dynamics. This allows to go beyond previous studies, which only describe the average jet dynamics. Our first result is an effective equation for the slow dynamics of jets, the validityof this equation is studied from a theoretical point of view, and the physical consequences are discussed. In order to describe the statistics of rare events such as abrupt transitions between different jet configurations, tools from large deviation theory are employed. Original methods are developped in order to implement this theory, those methods can be applied for instance in situations of multistability.

Propõe-se um sistema para processamento em um mini computador, de sinais elétricos da cóclea gravados em fita magnética. As gravações são efetuadas nos hospitais, utilizando-se aparelhos de simples manuseio e de baixo custo. Obtém-se dados que auxiliarão no diagnóstico de patologias do órgão da audição. Os instrumentos existentes para a realização da eletrococleografia são da manipulação complexa além de terem alto custo. O sistema proposto simplifica muito a operação do equipamento empregado nos hospitais, obtendo-se uma redução do custo global do exame. No hospital, deve-se ter um circuito de controle, um gravador, um amplificador e um gerador de estímulos. No centro de computação deve-se ter um mini computador, outro gravador, filtros e uma interface de controle. Foram desenvolvidos no trabalho: o circuito de controle, os filtros, a interface de controle e todos os programas responsáveis pelo processamento. Atualmente, a eletrococleografia em todo o Brasil é realizada em apenas alguns centros hospitalares, devido aos fatores custo e complexidade de manuseio. Em vista dos bons resultados obtidos e do baixo custo do sistema proposto, conclui-se que, com o nosso método, poder-se-ia difundir a eletrococleografia para um grande número de centros hospitalares. / A system is proposed that uses a minicomputer for the processing of electrical potentials from the cochlea. These signals are previously recorded on magnetic tape at hospitals, using simple and inexpensive equipment. The results obtained by the processing provide valuable data for the diagnosis of hearing disorders. The available equipment for electrocochleography at the present time is rather complicated to use and very expensive. The proposed system eases the operation and has a low cost. At the hospital, one must have a control circuit, a tape recorder, an amplifier and a sound stimulator. At the computing center one needs a minicomputer, another tape recorder, filters and a control interface. In this work were developed: the control circuit, the filters, the control interface and all programs used in the processing of the data. Nowadays, the use of electrocochleography in Brazil is limited to a few medical centers, due to the cost and complexity of the equipment. It is hoped that the simpler system proposed here will contribute to a wider use of electrocochleography.