Discourses of danger are a significant part of security and identity politics. They serve well for analysing the construction of both, security through identity politics, and identity through security policy. In this article, the declaration of the Vilnius Group of February 2003 is used as a point of departure. The author discusses the construction of state and national identities in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania throughout the 1990s by means of security policy, danger discourse, and mechanisms of exclusion. He argues that the replacement of Russia as a threat to Baltic security (in documents and policy manifestations) is a reflection of a relaxation of Baltic-Russian relations as well as an ingredient of the pre-accession strategy towards NATO. Political-military threats are replaced by cultural ones, while Russia, hitherto frequently represented as a concrete danger, gives way to abstractions such as „international terrorism“.

This dissertation takes a step towards providing a better understanding of post-socialist welfare state development from a theoretical as well as an empirical perspective. The overall analytical goal of this thesis has been to critically assess the development of social policies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania using them as illustrative examples of post-socialist welfare state development in the light of the theories, approaches and typologies that have been developed to study affluent capitalist democracies. The four studies included in this dissertation aspire to a common aim in a number of specific ways. The first study tries to place the ideal-typical welfare state models of the Baltic States within the well-known welfare state typologies. At the same time, it provides a rich overview of the main social security institutions in the three countries by comparing them with each other and with the previous structures of the Soviet period. It examines the social insurance institutions of the Baltic States (old-age pensions, unemployment insurance, short-term benefits, sickness, maternity and parental insurance and family benefits) with respect to conditions of eligibility, replacement rates, financing and contributions. The findings of this study indicate that the Latvian social security system can generally be labelled as a mix of the basic security and corporatist models. The Estonian social security system can generally also be characterised as a mix of the basic security and corporatist models, even if there are some weak elements of the targeted model in it. It appears that the institutional changes developing in the social security system of Lithuania have led to a combination of the basic security and targeted models of the welfare state. Nevertheless, as the example of the three Baltic States shows, there is diversity in how these countries solve problems within the field of social policy. In studying the social security schemes in detail, some common features were found that could be attributed to all three countries. Therefore, the critical analysis of the main social security institutions of the Baltic States in this study gave strong supporting evidence in favour of identifying the post-socialist regime type that is already gaining acceptance within comparative welfare state research. Study Two compares the system of social maintenance and insurance in the Soviet Union, which was in force in the three Baltic countries before their independence, with the currently existing social security systems. The aim of the essay is to highlight the forces that have influenced the transformation of the social policy from its former highly universal, albeit authoritarian, form, to the less universal, social insurance-based systems of present-day Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This study demonstrates that the welfare–economy nexus is not the only important factor in the development of social programs. The results of this analysis revealed that people's attitudes towards distributive justice and the developmental level of civil society also play an important part in shaping social policies. The shift to individualism in people’s mentality and the decline of the labour movement, or, to be more precise, the decline in trade union membership and influence, does nothing to promote the development of social rights in the Baltic countries and hinders the expansion of social policies. The legacy of the past has been another important factor in shaping social programs. It can be concluded that social policy should be studied as if embedded not only in the welfare-economy nexus, but also in the societal, historical and cultural nexus of a given society. Study Three discusses the views of the state elites on family policy within a wider theoretical setting covering family policy and social policy in a broader sense and attempts to expand this analytical framework to include other post-socialist countries. The aim of this essay is to explore the various views of the state elites in the Baltics concerning family policy and, in particular, family benefits as one of the possible explanations for the observed policy differences. The qualitative analyses indicate that the Baltic States differ significantly with regard to the motives behind their family policies. Lithuanian decision-makers seek to reduce poverty among families with children and enhance the parents’ responsibility for bringing up their children. Latvian policy-makers act so as to increase the birth rate and create equal opportunities for children from all families. Estonian policy-makers seek to create equal opportunities for all children and the desire to enhance gender equality is more visible in the case of Estonia in comparison with the other two countries. It is strongly arguable that there is a link between the underlying motives and the kinds of family benefits in a given country. This study, thus, indicates how intimately the attitudes of the state bureaucrats, policy-makers, political elite and researchers shape social policy. It confirms that family policy is a product of the prevailing ideology within a country, while the potential influence of globalisation and Europeanisation is detectable too. The final essay takes into account the opinions of welfare users and examines the performances of the institutionalised family benefits by relying on the recipients’ opinions regarding these benefits. The opinions of the populations as a whole regarding government efforts to help families are compared with those of the welfare users. Various family benefits are evaluated according to the recipients' satisfaction with those benefits as well as the contemporaneous levels of subjective satisfaction with the welfare programs related to the absolute level of expenditure on each program. The findings of this paper indicate that, in Latvia, people experience a lower level of success regarding state-run family insurance institutions, as compared to those in Lithuania and Estonia. This is deemed to be because the cash benefits for families and children in Latvia are, on average, seen as marginally influencing the overall financial situation of the families concerned. In Lithuania and Estonia, the overwhelming majority think that the family benefit systems improve the financial situation of families. It appears that recipients evaluated universal family benefits as less positive than targeted benefits. Some universal benefits negatively influenced the level of general satisfaction with the family benefits system provided in the countries being researched. This study puts forward a discussion about whether universalism is always more legitimate than targeting. In transitional economies, in which resources are highly constrained, some forms of universal benefits could turn out to be very expensive in relative terms, without being seen as useful or legitimate forms of help to families. In sum, by closely examining the different aspects of social policy, this dissertation goes beyond the over-generalisation of Eastern European welfare state development and, instead, takes a more detailed look at what is really going on in these countries through the examples of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In addition, another important contribution made by this study is that it revives ‘western’ theoretical knowledge through ‘eastern’ empirical evidence and provides the opportunity to expand the theoretical framework for post-socialist societies.

Opinions, rankings and evaluations of states’ development are proliferating. In the context of the transformation and EU accession of the Baltic States, there were many organizations involved in the scrutiny of their efforts to become accepted as modern and European. This scrutiny directed towards states can be seen as a new practice of transnational regulation. Especially in times of major transformation, as was the case in the Baltic States after the collapse of the Soviet bloc, monitoring and evaluation of achievements can be expected to shape how reforms were prioritized and how problems were perceived. In order to gain a better understanding of these transformations it is necessary to study the practice of organizations that scrutinize the states. The aim of the thesis is to analyze the role of scrutiny as a practice of transnational regulation. By analyzing how international organizations scrutinize states, this thesis adds knowledge to how transforming states are constructed in the everyday practices of scrutiny. A main argument is that by evaluating and reporting on states, international organizations can be seen as ‘auditors’ of transformations in states. The thesis compares three such ‘auditors’ and their respective relations to the states under scrutiny, namely: the European Commission, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the NGO Transparency International. The thesis contributes to discussions about the role of transnational regulation in the transformation of states. By comparing the three cases of scrutiny it is concluded that scrutiny produces both comfort and critique for and about these transforming states. In addition, through processes of scrutinizing, states are constructed as auditable and comparable. Scrutiny also inscribes states into a story about progress, it thus offers hope about reforms and of a better future.

The purpose of this thesis is to identify a general model to forecast GDP growth for the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. If the model provides reliable results for these states, then the model should be able to forecast GDP growth for other countries of interest. Forecasts are made by using a reduced vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR models make use of past values of Gross Domestic Product-Inflation-Unemployment as explanatory variables. The performed forecasts have provided good results for horizons up to t+8. The forecasts for 2009 (t+12) are in line with those of several other actors. It is reasonable to assume that some of the forecasts for t+16 have reliable results. The Lithuanian forecast show a fall in GDP with 12.51 per cent in 2009 and a GDP growth of 4.23 per cent in 2010. The forecast for Estonia show that the GDP will decrease with 1.49 per cent in 2009 and 12.72 per cent in 2010. Finally the forecast for Latvia show a fall in GDP of 3.1 per cent in 2009 and 18 per cent in 2010. From the findings it is possible to conclude that the model provided reliable estimates of future levels of GDP for the Baltic States and the benchmark countries. This indicates that the model should be applicable on other countries of interest.

Bakalauro baigiamajame darbe nagrinėjamos einamosios sąskaitos nesubalansuotumą nagrinėjančios teorijos ir išskiriami einamajai sąskaitai įtakos turintys veiksniai. Darbe identifikuojamos einamosios sąskaitos saldo pasekmės šaliai bei apibrėžiami einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumo vertinimo metodai teoriniu aspektu. Praktinėje dalyje vertinami Baltijos šalių einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumo pokyčiai išskirtais santykiniais rodikliais bei kriterijais. Šių rodiklių ir kriterijų pagalba išskiriamos pagrindinės Baltijos šalių einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumo problemos. Siekiant įvertinti einamosios sąskaitos saldo priimtinumą vertinant jo poveikio ekonominiams rodikliams mastais atliekama koreliacinė regresinė poveikio ekonominiams rodikliams analizė. Darbe pateikiama einamosios sąskaitos ir BVP rodiklių prognozavimas 2010 ir 2011 metams pasitelkiant kokybinį prognozavimo metodą. / The theories, which explore current account imbalance, are analyzed and excluded the factors of main current account imbalance in bachelor work. In this work is identified sequence of country of current account imbalance and described current account imbalance evaluation in theoretical aspects. In the practice part with relative criteria and indicators is evaluating Baltic countries current account imbalance changes. These criteria and indicators help to distinguish main problems of Baltic countries, of current account imbalance acceptability. To assess the acceptability of the current account balance with respect to its impact on economic performance and scale correlation is carried out regression analysis of the impact of economic indicators. In the work there are giving the current account and GDP indicators forecasting years 2010 and 2011 using a qualitative forecasting method.

This research work is driven by a desire to improve status quo in the area of New Zealand’s political, business and person-to-person relations with the post-Soviet Baltic Republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (the Baltics or the Baltic States), which by now represent an integral part of the European Union (EU). The example of Estonia will be tested as a possible ‘gateway’ for New Zealand trying to undertake its most recent endeavours towards discovering the Baltic region. The dissertation’s response variable can be outlined as ‘New Zealand multi-dimensional interactions with the post-Soviet Baltic Republics, particularly with the Republic of Estonia’. At the same time, the descriptive nature of the dependent variable is planned to be expanded with the help of the manipulated variable that will lead this research work. The latter variable will be formulated as ‘Estonia, a democratic, transparent, free-market state, can be chosen as a ‘gateway’ for New Zealand politics, business circles and the public in their endeavours to succeed in the post-Soviet Baltic region of the EU’. Such an approach will give a chance to scrutinise the studied issues comprehensively, from several angles (such as ‘theoretical’, ‘operational’ and ‘structural’), and by answering the following three research questions: is it necessary for New Zealand to promote its interests and values in the region of the Baltic States; does an idea to choose one of the three Baltic States as a ‘hub’ for promoting New Zealand interests and values in the Baltic region of the EU have a perspective; and can Estonia be considered/recommended to become such a ‘hub’? This dissertation is among the first attempts to address a deficit of scholarship studying New Zealand relations with the post-Soviet Baltic region. Its findings could be used by both New Zealand and the Baltics’ decision-makers in the field of international relations.

In this work author pursuing to compare Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian institutions of the constitutional justice, bring out similarities and differences. To take notice of place of these institutions in states government system, method of formation, judge status, jurisdiction of institutions, process basic features, and determined judgments legal force. Of every democratic countries law systems fundament is constitution, so it is very important to guarantee the supremacy of law. Undoubtedly institutions of constitutional justice takes up one of the important place in assurance of constitutional conformity in state. author analyses institutions which implement constitutional control in most related neighbor countries: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Lithuania and Latvia to fulfill this function there are established special institutions – Constitutional courts, meanwhile in Estonia this function is dedicated to supreme instance of common court system – Supreme Court, and if to make clear, one of constituent part of this court – Constitutional Review Chamber. Also, the fundamental models of constitutional justice and it's variety, and the history of constitutional justice institutions in Baltic states were discussed in brief in this work. Author analyses, why these institutions are considered to be a part of common court system. Basing on descriptive, comparative and analysis method were investigated the order of these institution formation, legal status of judges, the... [to full text]

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