The thesis presents three papers in macroeconomics and monetary economics with an emphasis on financial instability and crises. The first paper, entitled "Interbank Market Crises and Financial Openness," studies the effect of financial openness on financial stability by extending a closed-economy DSGE model (Boissay, Collard and Smets, 2015) to an open economy in which banks are allowed to invest abroad. Financial internationalisation in the form of outward banking flows alters the behaviour of the economy in the run up to a typical interbank crisis, reducing the role played by domestic credit build ups. Prior to an interbank crisis, the level of assets typically builds up in an economy without access to international investment opportunities. In contrast, financial openness attenuates the build up of assets during productivity booms, which reduces the likelihood of financial overheating resulting in a banking crisis once productivity reverts to trend. Simulations of the model show that the open economy would generally experience fewer banking crises in the long run compared to an economy blocked from investing abroad. This finding may not obtain in the short run, however, should the economy be subject to large negative productivity shocks consequent upon a financial opening up to the external domain. The second paper, entitled "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Allocation of International Mutual Funds," a joint work with Gino Cenedese and Menno Middeldorp (both at the Bank of England), analyses the spillovers of unconventional monetary policy from the US to the Rest of the World. Using panel regressions on a fund-level data-set of globally domiciled mutual funds, the study examines the degree to which the operations and surprises of US unconventional monetary policy prompt mutual fund managers to change their portfolio country weightings. Our study permits an analysis of the portfolio choice of mutual fund managers, as differentiated from the portfolio rebalancing behaviour of their underlying investors. It allows for a quantitative examination as to whether and to what extent fund managers undo or exacerbate the allocation decisions by their respective underlying investors. Unconventional monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve is found to induce fund managers to reduce their portfolio exposure to the US whilst increasing it to other countries in the Rest of the World. Specifically, the Fed's purchases of Treasury securities trigger portfolio rebalancing in equity funds, while its acquisition of mortgage backed securities and agency debt has a minimal effect on equity and bond fund portfolio allocations. Fed policy surprises do affect the portfolio allocations of equity funds. The main results continue to hold in a number of robustness checks. An extension of the study examines portfolio rebalancing effects of policy surprises by three other major monetary authorities, the ECB, BoJ and BoE. The main focus of the paper, however, is on the broader effects of US unconventional monetary policy on the asset allocation of international mutual funds. The third paper, entitled "Sovereign Debt Negotiations as a Macroeconomic Game with Strategic Interactions among Players," aims to show that existing methods analysing games with more than two players can be usefully applied to macroeconomic games involving strategic interactions among three or more players. This is shown in the context of sovereign refinancing negotiations which are modelled as a bargaining game between three players: a debtor country in need of finance (player 1); its creditors from the international official-sector (player 2); and its foreign private-sector creditors in the form of international banks (player 3). The presence of a third player has important effects on the distribution of the gains from trade and the stability of the game if one allows for the possibility that any two players may form a coalition against another player. After deriving these general results, the model is applied to the Greek sovereign debt crisis to provide an economic application and to show that the framework can be applied to a wide range of other macroeconomic games.

[pt] A literatura que estuda o efeito de fusões sobre rentabilidade do setor bancário chegou a resultados controversos, variando em direção e em magnitude. Este trabalho introduz duas novas metodologias, Propensity Score Matching e Differences-in-Differences, para estimar o efeito de fusões sobre a rentabilidade no setor bancário norte-americano e para estabelecer os links entre esses fatos. Os resultados indicam que as fusões geram pequeno efeito sobre a rentabilidade dos bancos, mas tal efeito é maior quando as operações envolvem bancos que atuam num mesmo mercado. Além disso, os resultados sugerem que as fusões aumentam a produtividade do trabalho, os ativos, a alavancagem, a concentração de mercado e os impostos sobre os lucros, mas reduzem os custos operacionais e o número de empregados. / [en] The literature has found causal effects of merger on profitability with distinct signs and magnitudes. This paper uses new approaches, the Propensity Score Matching and Differences-in-Differences, to estimate the causal effect of mergers on US bank`s profitability and to identify the links between them. The results point out that mergers has little effect on bank`s profitability, but this effect is bigger when operations involve banks in the same market. Moreover, mergers increase labor productivity, assets, leverage, market concentration and income taxes and decrease operational costs and the number of employees.

Este trabalho objetiva analisar o papel da distribuição de seguros por bancos (bancassurance) no mercado segurador brasileiro. A união dos dois mercados se deu a partir de 1967, quando toda a cobrança relativa a seguros passou a ser obrigatoriamente executada através da rede bancária, proporcionando a estes uma farta captação de recursos para a atividade principal da instituição: a concessão de crédito. A partir de então, o movimento de convergência entre os dois negócios só aumentou, através de fusões e aquisições de bancos e seguradoras, com marcos históricos importantes, como a constituição de 1988 que estabeleceu a vinculação do setor securitário ao Sistema Financeiro Nacional, ao lado das instituições bancárias. Atualmente, a atratividade da venda de seguros para os bancos continua muito grande. Com a concessão de crédito já tendo atingido um grande patamar junto ao público bancarizado, os bancos estão buscando a ampliação de suas receitas através de outros produtos e serviços. Dentre eles, seguros ocupa lugar de destaque. Para a execução da pesquisa, foram analisados indicadores econômicos, financeiros e sociais de diversos órgãos que aglutinam e estratificam dados sobre o mercado securitário e bancário nacional e internacional. Além disso, foram abordados marcos teóricos relativos à estratégia empresarial e competitiva, bem como a crescente participação dos bancos no mercado segurador. Por fim, foram expostos resultados qualitativos obtidos através das entrevistas, onde foi discutida a aplicação prática das decisões estratégicas que norteiam as posicionamentos das empresas envolvidas neste mercado, além das diferenças entre as formas de distribuição de seguros no mercado brasileiro. Apoiado pelo fenômeno da bancarização e na capilaridade da rede bancária, o bancassurance tem relevante papel na massificação de seguros junto à população. Como efeito, este mercado apresenta crescimento superior ao observado na economia brasileira, passando de uma participação inferior a 2% em 1994 para mais de 5% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) no início da presente década. A decisão da instituição financeira pela venda de seguros passa pela estratégia de diversificação do portfólio de produtos, com o objetivo de cobrir os seus custos através de produtos e serviços complementares à intermediação financeira, havendo diferenças entre bancos proprietários de seguradoras e bancos que realizam parcerias com seguradoras terceiras atuando apenas na distribuição. Um ponto fundamental do bancassurance é a proteção do patrimônio dos clientes, evitando a retirada de recursos da instituição financeira para a reposição do bem sinistrado, e a fidelização de clientes no longo prazo. / This paper aims to analyze the role of the distribution of insurance by banks (bancassurance) in the Brazilian insurance market. The union of the two markets occurred after 1967, when the entire collection related to insurances started to be done, mandatorily, through the banking network, thereby providing a rich fundraising for the institution's main activity: lending. Since then, convergence movement between the two businesses only grew through mergers and acquisitions of banks and insurance companies, with major historical milestones, such as the 1988 constitution that established the linkage of the insurance industry to the nation’s financial system, along with banking institutions. Currently, the attractiveness of selling insurance for banks remains very high. With the extension of credit already reached a great level with the bank going public, banks are seeking to expand their revenue through other products and services. Among them, insurances occupy a leading place. To carry out the research, we analyzed the economic, financial and social indicators of various bodies that bind and stratify data on the insurance and bank market national and international. Moreover, theoretical frameworks were addressed relating to business and competitive strategy, as well as the increasing participation of banks in the insurance market. Finally, qualitative results obtained from the interviews were exposed, where they discussed the practical application of strategic decisions that guide the positioning of the companies involved in this market, and the differences between the types of insurance distribution in the Brazilian market. Backed by the phenomenon that is banking and the stratification of the banking network, the bancassurance has a relevant role in the popularization of insurance among the population. In effect, this market presents a superior growth in comparison to the Brazilian economy, starting with participation percentage of less than 2% in 1994 to more than 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the beginning of this decade. The decision by the financial institution to start selling insurance goes through the strategy of diversifying product portfolio, in order to cover its costs through products and services that are complementary to financial intermediation, when having differences between banks that own insurances companies and banks that have partnerships with insurance companies acting only in distribution. A key point of bancassurance is the protection of client’s assets, avoiding the withdrawal of funds from the financial institution for the replacement of a lost asset as well, and maintaining customer loyalty in the long run.

Considerando o crescimento da oferta de canais digitais de atendimento por parte dos bancos brasileiros, o presente estudo avalia como o investimento em tecnologia vem afetando a performance dos bancos brasileiros. Em outros contextos, diversos estudos avaliaram o impacto dessa digitalização nos resultados das instituições financeiras. Hernando e Nieto (2007) e Ciciretti et al. (2009), por exemplo, identificaram ganhos de rentabilidade e redução de custos com a implantação do internet banking nos bancos espanhóis e italianos. No presente estudo foram analisadas três medidas de rentabilidade (ROA, ROE e Margem de Intermediação) e duas medidas de despesas (de pessoal e administrativas). Foi também verificada a evolução das Eficiências Técnica, de Custos e Alocativa dos bancos brasileiros no contexto da digitalização e considerando os investimentos em TI. Os resultados sugerem que o investimento em tecnologia da informação pelos bancos possui uma relação positiva e significativa com as variáveis de rentabilidade e com as Despesas Administrativas, concordando parcialmente com os estudos de Hernando e Nieto (2007). Foi verificado também melhora na eficiência técnica dos bancos brasileiros ao longo do período analisado, principalmente nos que possuem maior investimento em TI. / Considering the growing offer of digital service channels from the Brazilian banks, the present study evaluates how the investment in technology is affecting the performance of the Brazilian banks. At other contexts, many studies have evaluated the impact of this digitalization on the results of the finance institutions. Hernando and Nieto (2007) and Ciciretti et al. (2009), for example, identified profit gains and cost reduction as the internet banking was applied on the Spanish and Italian banks. In the present study, it was analysed three measures of profitability (ROA, ROE and Margin of Intermediation) and two measures of expenses (personal and total of administrative expenses). It was also verified the Evolution of the Technical, Cost and Allocative Efficiencies of the Brazilian banks in the context of digitalization and considering the IT investments. The results suggests that the investment in information technology from the banks has a positive and significative relation with the profitability variables and with the Administrative Expenses, partially agreeing with the studies of Hernando and Nieto (2007). It was also verified improvement on the technical efficiency of the Brazilian banks along the analysed period, mainly on that with the greatest Investment in IT.

Academic studies of Bangladeshi Private Commercial Banks (PCBs) have identified issues of Corporate Governance relating to ‘crony capitalism’ and political influence. The thesis combines quantitative and qualitative methods. The research employs conventional econometric panel estimation and a novel method of estimating efficiency using a non-parametric bootstrapping technology. The results reveal significant performance differences. To understand the causes underlying the differences in revenue efficiency and profitability, multiple lenses from theories of Corporate Governance are adopted to design semi-structured interviews. Twenty in-depth interviews from a sample of banks, both managers and board members and industry stakeholders are supplemented with documentary analysis. The quantitative findings reveal a performance gap between 1st Generation PCBs and 2nd and 3rd Generation PCBs in terms of Efficiency and Profitability. 1st Gen PCBs perform worst whereas there is no statistical difference between Gen 2 and Gen 3 PCBs. Moreover, there is no sign of catch-up or improvement for the 1st Generation PCBs. The research demonstrates that an increasing amount of 1st Generation banks’ Non Performing Loans is the main reason for this performance gap. The interview data relate the performance gaps to inadequate Corporate Governance. The research identifies family dominated boards that have encouraged crony capitalism and featherbedding of employees resulting in excessive Non Performing Loans and higher overhead costs. Also, these 1st Generation banks are excessively large in terms of employees, rural branches and remittance earnings leading to a culture of invulnerability to takeover.

O avanço da consolidação nos setores bancário e segurador brasileiro, o acirramento da concorrência com a disputa pela liderança, as mudanças regulatórias e a crescente participação dos seguros no resultado dos conglomerados bancários têm estimulado a revisão das estratégias de atuação pelos bancos. Dentro desta perspectiva, as alianças estratégicas com seguradoras surgem como um importante meio para alcançar vantagem competitiva. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo descrever e analisar as características das alianças estratégicas entre empresas dos setores bancário e segurador no Brasil. Neste contexto, foram mapeados os tipos de alianças e as principais movimentações ocorridas após o Plano Real, em 1994. Para identificar os objetivos e fatores motivadores das diferentes alternativas de alianças, os critérios utilizados para seleção dos parceiros e as principais características destas operações foram realizados estudos de casos em cinco instituições. O método de estudo de casos foi escolhido por mais se adequar ao tipo de questões formuladas, “como” e “por que”. Complementarmente, foram utilizadas fontes secundárias de dados, visando dar maior consistência aos resultados obtidos nos estudos de casos. Os resultados evidenciam o domínio do mercado segurador brasileiro pelas seguradoras controladas por conglomerados bancários, especialmente nos segmentos com maior afinidade com os produtos e serviços bancários: previdência, capitalização e seguro de pessoas. Os resultados também sugerem fatores que influenciam as alternativas de atuação pelos bancos através de: seguradoras próprias, participações acionárias, joint ventures, acordos de cooperação exclusivos ou acordos com diversas seguradoras. As alianças estratégicas com seguradoras são uma alternativa especialmente relevante para os bancos que não dispõem de recursos, tecnologia ou a escala necessária para atuar, de maneira competitiva, com seguradoras próprias. / The progress of consolidation in the banking and insurance in Brazil, the increase in competition with the leadership contest, the regulatory changes and the increasing participation of insurance in the outcome of banking conglomerates have encouraged the review of strategies by banks. Within this perspective, strategic alliances with insurers emerge as an important means to achieve competitive advantage. This paper aims to describe and analyze the characteristics of strategic alliances between banks and insurers in Brazil. Thus, were mapped the types of alliances and major movements occurred after the Real Plan, in 1994. To identify the goals and motivating factors of the alternative alliances, the criteria used for selection of partners and the main characteristics of these operations were carried out case studies at five institutions. The case study method was chosen because it most fit the type of questions, "how" and "why". In addition, were used secondary data sources in order to give greater consistency to the results obtained in the case studies. The results show the dominance of the Brazilian insurance market by insurance companies controlled by banking conglomerates, especially in segments with higher affinity for the financial services: retirement savings, “capitalization” (combines lottery-based drawings with an incentive savings product) and life insurance. The results also suggest factors that influence the choices of action by the banks through: own insurance companies, equity investments, joint ventures, exclusive cooperation agreements or agreements with several insurers. Strategic alliances with insurance companies are an alternative especially relevant for banks that lack the resources, technology or scale needed to operate in a competitive manner, with insurers themselves.

abstract: The key chanllenge for Small and Micro Enterprises (SMEs) to get credit or loans is the fact that traditional financing business model in commercial banks cannot meet SMEs’ financial needs. Through extensive theoretical research, market analysis especially on SMEs’ behavioral characteristics and demands, serveral case studies on market-leading banks such as Wells Fargo and KASIKORN BANK, and the actual implementation experiences in China Minsheng Bank and Pingan Bank, this article proposes a new business model for servicing SMEs for commercial banks in China, which includes the principle and rationale of the business model, the technical foundation, business process and organizational structure, as well as the future transition of the model. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015

abstract: In this thesis I examine the opportunities and challenges faced by the community banks in China. Rooted in the local communities, community banks generally focus on serving the local residents, farmers, and micro and small business enterprises (MSBE) through relationship building. Although community banks tend to be small relative to the other financial institutions, their unique market positions and business strategies have helped them to survive the competition and secure some market shares. Thus, it is important to understand the business strategies of community banks and to explore their future business opportunities and challenges. I first provide a brief overview about the importance of local communities, community economy, and community banking, on the basis of an analysis about mismatch in the demand and supply of community financial services due to information asymmetry. Next, I review and analyze how commercial banks have utilized different types of information in their operations. I classify the information used by commercial banks into different categories and discuss their importance to the operations of commercial banks. After that, I conduct a case analysis to illustrate the role of non-financial information in the development of community banks’ business strategy. I conclude this thesis with a discussion of how community banks can better utilize data analysis to develop their core competencies in the era of “Big Data”. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015

abstract: Food banks are the foundation of the emergency food network, and while their chief mission is to mitigate hunger, the rise in obesity and other diet-related diseases among clientele has incited the need for better nutritional control with regards to procurement of inventory at food banks. The purpose of this research was to determine if procured inventory at United Food Bank in Mesa, Arizona could meet minimum MyPlate recommendations for a typical food bank client and what implications the results could have for future policy. Inventory data was obtained from United Food Bank for fiscal year 2013-2014 and analyzed utilizing the MyPlate Analysis Program to determine contributions of each food category to MyPlate recommendations. Inventory was separated by MyPlate food category and analyzed to determine contribution towards a meal built around MyPlate recommendations. Results showed that the inventory could meet the minimum requirements for protein and grains for a family of four for at least three days, the amount of time an emergency food box is designed to last. On the contrary, the inventory did not meet minimum vegetable, fruit or dairy requirements. These results indicate that typical food bank inventory does not meet USDA MyPlate recommendations and that having nutritional policy in place could potentially drive donations and purchases to enhance the nutritional quality of future food bank inventory. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Nutrition 2015

Thesis (MTech(Business Administration)--Cape Technikon, Cape Town, 2001 / During the last decade, commercial banking competition has intensified for a variety of reasons. With shareholders requirements to satisfY and, at the same time to provide ''value for money" to i!s clients, banks restructured themselves to serve niche market segments, increase critical mass by growing volume business or a combination of both. With the change in political dispensation, the urgency for banks to evolve intensified for the following prime reasons: I. The increased number offoreign banks ~ntering the South African market and cherry-picking the commercial banks' best clients and employees. This was facilitated by the foreign banks low cost of entry and low overhead cost structure coupled with cheaper availability of offshore funding for South African businesses. 2. Increased emigration rates reducin6 the availability ofskilled and trained bank employees. 3. The stagnation ofthe economic emironment resulting in low organic growth of the business client base from the traditional white o\\ned segment. 4. The largely neglected black business segment which became politically. if not economically. attractive to the local banks. Against this background. commercial ban:,s strategies changed involving restructuring the internal organisation to refocus the banking industr.. efforts in achieving its profit objectives. satisfYing and keeping its clients and attracting new clients. primarily, from the local competitor banks.