Climate is a major catalyst of change in the composition, structure and function of the Ecosphere. Empirical studies of species response to climate consistently reveal that the anomalous warming occurring over roughly the past half-century is having a discernible impact on contemporary biodiversity. Climate change has also been implicated in several species extinctions, a phenomenon projected to be exacerbated in the future. These studies and events indicate that the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation are considerable. Biodiversity conservation is one of the major modern rationales behind formal protected natural areas establishment, planning and management. However, most protected natural areas have been designed to protect in perpetuity specific natural features, species and communities in-situ, and don’t take into account shifts in ecosystem composition, structure and function that are being induced by climatic change. The ecological manifestations of climate change will be such that the established species management objectives of some protected natural areas will no longer be viable. Consequently, protected natural areas agencies will need to be adaptive in order to be able to respond to climate change-induced impacts and improve their ability to deliver their various protected natural area- and biodiversity-related mandates, such as the perpetual protection of representative elements of natural heritage. The principal goal of this dissertation was to begin the process of climate change adaptation (mainstreaming) within the Canadian protected natural areas community, thereby facilitating the ability of jurisdictions, agencies and organizations to adapt to climate change-related impacts and implement adaptation decisions. To realize this goal, four objectives were formulated: i) to synthesize the state of knowledge on climate change, biodiversity and protected natural areas policy, planning and management; ii) to establish the state of climate change adaptation with respect to Canadian protected natural areas agencies; iii) to assess the current position, priorities, and challenges of, and barriers to, Canadian protected natural areas agencies with respect to climate change adaptation; and iv) to develop a climate change adaptation portfolio and evaluate the suitability of the portfolio for implementation by a Canadian protected natural areas agency, Ontario Parks. The research revealed that while mainstreaming climate change into protected natural areas policy, planning and management will be essential for the persistence of biodiversity and the continued viability of current planning and management practices under a changing climate, there is a clear disconnect between the perceived salience of climate change and a lack of available resources (e.g., financial resources and staffing) and scientific capacity required to respond to the issue. Moreover, the limited protected natural areas climate change literature to-date provides little guidance to the planners and managers of already established protected natural areas. Accordingly, there is an indicated need to assist Canadian protected natural areas agencies in the identification and evaluation of adaptation options as a strategic starting point in working towards mainstreaming climate change into relevant program areas. In response to this indicated need, a policy Delphi survey method was used to facilitate the identification and evaluation of adaptation options tailored specifically to Ontario Parks. A panel of protected natural areas experts identified 165 adaptation options within Ontario Parks’ six major program areas [(i) Policy, System Planning & Legislation; (ii) Management Direction; (iii) Operations & Development; (iv) Research, Monitoring & Reporting; (v) Corporate Culture & Function; and (vi) Education, Interpretation & Outreach) in the first iteration of the policy Delphi. Adaptation options were subsequently evaluated individually for their perceived level of desirability, feasibility and implementation time-frame by the panel via a second iteration of the policy Delphi. In so doing, the research evaluated the relative merit (or practicality) of alternative adaptation options in these program areas in order to help identify priority (or ‘first-order’) adaptations for consideration in an official climate change adaptation strategy by Ontario Parks. The research provides a solid conceptual and methodological framework with important practical ‘lessons learned’ that will help Canadian protected natural areas jurisdictions understand, address and begin mainstreaming climate change into policy, planning and management decision-making. Collectively, the research includes the first practical discussion of adaptation to climate change within the institutional framework of any Canadian protected natural areas jurisdiction, representing a significant contribution to the protected natural areas planning literature at the science-policy interface.

Climate is a long-term driver of ecological change, but the rapidity with which climate is projected to change over the next century may push the limitations of ecological adaptability, to the detriment of biodiversity. Given their typically small populations, limiting biological traits and exposure to external stressors, species currently classified as “at risk” may be among the most vulnerable to climate change and least capable of adapting naturally. A screening level assessment of the impacts of climate change on endangered species in Canada was conducted by integrating knowledge of the current status and characteristics of each endangered species with projections of climate change and climate change impacts. It was determined that climate change may have a potential overall negative influence on more than half of all endangered species in Canada. However, while relatively few species were predicted to respond in an overall positive or neutral manner to climate change, a large portion of endangered species were classified as having insufficient information to generate a decision on the net influence of climate change; in many cases, these species were located at the northern extent of their range in warmer regions of Canada and have the potential to experience at least some benefits under climate change provided that other stressors are sufficiently mitigated. These results, as well as the inherent vulnerability of species at risk to environmental change, the potential for species at risk distributional shifts and the likelihood of increasing rates of species imperilment, demonstrate the need for greater consideration of the implications of climate change in species at risk management and policy. Canada’s Species at Risk Act (SARA) does not explicitly address the issue of climate change and limitations exist in SARA’s time-sensitive definition of wildlife species eligible for protection in Canada and in the interpretation of SARA’s mandates in the context of anthropogenically driven climate change. It is recommended that climate change be systematically considered in all species at risk assessments, recovery strategies and management plans and that SARA’s definition of a wildlife species be revaluated in light of shifting species distributions under climate change. Further recommendations to identify “values” that will assist in prioritizing species for conservation, to reassess the concept of an invasive species under climate change and to implement strategies that focus more broadly on the conservation of biodiversity and ecological integrity rather than individual species may require ethically complex discussions and decisions on the part of species at risk managers and policy makers. Future research should focus on informing species at risk management and policy by improving modeling capabilities at the species level, conducting in-depth analyses of priority species, and building knowledge of alternative species conservation strategies such as assisted colonization.

Increasingly the body of research shows that tourism is vulnerable to climate change. Tourism is also a non-negligible contributor to climate change, primarily through rapidly increasing air travel. Recently, a number of tourism destinations that are dependent on long-haul tourism have expressed concerns about the impact of climate policy (both implemented and proposed) on tourist mobility and arrivals to their countries. This thesis examines outcomes from a model which projects how climate mitigation policy could influence arrival numbers to the Caribbean region; an area projected to be disproportionately impacted by climate change. While impacts on this region are likely to be both physical as well as economical, mitigation policy restricting emissions from international aviation is likely to be the first wave of climate change effects felt. This policy, coupled with the fluctuation of global oil prices, may be a significant deterrent for travelers to the Caribbean. Different scenarios using likely mitigation policy costs on international flights and oil price fluctuations were modeled to understand how these tourism-dependent nations might fair with increases in travel cost due to conditions beyond their control. Both region-wide and destination specific results were examined showing that visitor numbers could decrease versus a business as usual scenario with climate policy and heightened oil prices, but not significantly until climate policy with deeper emission cuts and carbon prices higher than currently suggested are put in place. Result are not uniform across the region, and show that certain destinations are projected to be more vulnerable to climate mitigation policy than others. Recommendations focusing on both the aviation industry’s inclusion in climate policy and those to aid the region’s tourism sector are provided.

In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change estimated that global mean temperature will increase between 1.8 to 4.0°C by the end of the 21st century. An increase in global temperature by even a few degrees could have significant environmental and economic impacts, and mean that economic sectors that are better able to adapt to a changing climate will prosper, and those that are not may decline, relocate or disappear. Traditional resource sectors, which are highly reliant on environmental conditions, such as agriculture and forestry have been considering the implications of climate change for several decades. The tourism sector, which is also highly reliant on environmental factors, has only begun to consider the possible impacts of climate change over the past five to seven years. The integrated effects of a changing climate are anticipated to have far-reaching consequences for the rapidly growing global tourism economy and the communities that rely on the sector. In fact, the United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], United Nations Environment Program [UNEP] and World Meteorological Organization [WMO] identified climate change as the ‘greatest challenge to the sustainability of the global tourism industry in the 21st century’. The winter tourism sector has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to climate change due mainly to the high susceptibility of mountain environments and the projected reduction in natural snow availability. The international ski industry has received the most detailed attention because of the sector’s high cultural and economic importance in many regions. The multi-billion dollar ski sector is highly vulnerable to changes in both regional and local climate and as a result has been projected to experience decreased natural snow reliability resulting in decreased season length, increased snowmaking requirements, increased operating costs, and decreased revenues in association with decreased visitation. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to examine climate change vulnerability (see glossary of terms, p. xi) (both- supply and demand-sides) for the entire US Northeast ski tourism sector in order to understand how the regional marketplace, as a whole, is likely to change in response to projected climate change. Previous research has been piecemeal in its approach (i.e. examining either supply or demand) and has largely neglected to examine climate change vulnerability of the ski sector from a systems-based perspective (i.e. examining both supply and demand for a single marketplace). Understanding how the US Northeast ski area marketplace may contract under climate change conditions including how ski area competitors may fair under future conditions, and how demand-side behavioural response is likely to occur, would allow ski area operators and managers to develop and implement appropriate adaptation strategies that can help reduce the negative impacts of change while taking advantage of any opportunities. The research revealed that there is likely to be a contraction of ski area supply, which favours those ski areas that are able to afford the increased cost of adapting to projected changes in climatic conditions. Ski areas that are situated at higher elevations or are located in the northern portion of the Northeast region, were found to be at an advantage due to lower temperatures and more precipitation falling as snow. Ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and northeastern New York were projected to maintain longer season lengths, require less snowmaking and be more likely to be operational during the economically important Christmas-New Year holiday than ski areas in Connecticut or Massachusetts. The extent to which skiers intend to change their skiing behaviour in response to the projected impacts on ski area supply were not significantly greater than the extent to which they already change their skiing habits when current conditions are poor. This suggests that the future response to climate change is likely to be similar to that which has been observed during marginal snow conditions of the past, and that demand for skiing opportunities is not likely to reduce proportionally to the expected reduction in supply. In which case, the ski areas that are able to remain operational under projected climate change, may be able to take advantage of a possible geographic market shift (i.e. greater demand/market share for ski areas that remain). If there is a net transfer of demand throughout the remaining marketplace, it would mean that some communities would need to prepare for development pressures (e.g. water use for snowmaking, real estate development, slope expansion, congestion) associated with the concentration of ski tourism in fewer areas, while others would need to prepare for economic diversification and investment in alternative industries (i.e. adapted snow-based industry or non-snow-based industry).

Recreational boating in the Great Lakes is suggested to fuel tourism and the Ontario economy. Like many other tourism sectors, boating-tourism is a highly climate-sensitive economic sector which significantly relies upon compromising climatic conditions. Climate change in the 21st century is projected to alter climatic parameters in the Great Lakes region, thereby generating low lake water conditions and inadequate water levels within some marina facilities that cater to recreational boats. This study examines the multiple implications lakeside marina facilities have previously endured during low water conditions and the possible implications they may experience during three scenarios of water level reductions as a result of climate change. Among the five Great Lakes, Lake Huron has become one of the most prominent lakes for understanding the relationship between climate variability and water-level fluctuations. A questionnaire was administered to 58 marina operators on the Canadian Lake Huron coastline. The questionnaire results were analysed, indicating implications Lake Huron marina operators experienced at their facilities during low water conditions and methods of adaptation that they used to overcome these conditions. The results also projected future implications that may result from climate change and reduced water levels. The most imminent impacts Canadian marina facilities on the Lake Huron coastline would endure as a result of climate change and low water conditions would be the loss of docking slips and potential marina closures. Without adaptation of marina infrastructure, future implications on some Lake Huron Canadian marina facilities may cause substantial economic loss for nearby communities and businesses. Economic losses resulting from lake level water reductions and reduced boat-based expenditures for two regions located on Lake Huron's Georgian Bay shoreline are derived in the study. It is anticipated that the results of this study will provide significant groundwork for systematic and regional evaluations on the impacts in which climate change has upon Great Lake marinas and boat-based tourism.

Tropical agroforestry systems are perceived to have the capacity to be resilient to future changes in climate. This study quantifies the response of two tropical agroforestry tree seedlings; Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Walp and Cedrela odorata L. to increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) (800 ppm), temperature (+2°C daytime and +3°C nighttime) and the combined conditions. As well, this study analyzes the microbial community structure and nutrient concentration in response to elevated concentrations of CO2 on tropical silvopastoral soil, conventional pastoral soil and a regenerated forest soil. Both tree species demonstrated very individual responses to the different climate scenerios. While no significant CO2 fertilizer effect was observed in either species the combined treatment demonstrated a significant increase in seedling height for both species. The response of G. sepium to the combined treatment was similar to its response to the temperature treatment which could be a result of achieving the optimal range in temperature for growth. As well, an increase in C:N ratio from G. sepium seedling leaves under the combined treatment indicates the possibility of the nutrient concentration diminishing thereby reducing the role of this species as a provider of high nutrient biomass. The soil microbial community showed very little change in response to elevated concentrations of CO2 and differences in community structure between sites were also negligible. Soil nutrient concentration maintained the best balance over the course of both twelve week incubations for the regenerated forest site followed by the silvopastoral site and lastly the conventional pasture site. The response of soil nutrient concentration to elevated concentrations of CO2 was negligible reflecting the response of the soil microbial community.

Water is essential to sustaining aquatic environments and is also a resource upon which many human-sectors depend. During times of reduced supply, competition or conflict may arise regarding its distribution due to its importance to local economies and its life giving benefits. The Ontario Low Water Response (OLWR) Plan is designed to deal with how water might be allocated under situations of reduced supply. When forced with data from the Coupled Global Climate Model 1 (CGCM1), the Guelph All Weather Storm Event Runoff (GAWSER) hydrologic model projects scenarios of reduced flows for the Grand River watershed, an area within the Province of Ontario. A level III declaration, which marks the highest stage of water emergency has never before been declared in the Province of Ontario, meaning there is uncertainty regarding how OLWR might operate. Using one scenario of climate change, this study explores the resiliency of the OLWR mechanism to operate under the demands of a changing climate and a growing population through interviews. Results show that the mechanism is not resilient enough to operate under conditions of reduced flow due to ambiguity in the mechanism and the tendency for humans to trump environmental uses of water, leading to detrimental effects on the fishery. Recommendations from this study suggest that ambiguities in the mechanism be revisited and clarified with a shift towards a proactive approach in order for environmental integrity to be upheld under scenarios of reduced flow.

Water is essential to sustaining aquatic environments and is also a resource upon which many human-sectors depend. During times of reduced supply, competition or conflict may arise regarding its distribution due to its importance to local economies and its life giving benefits. The Ontario Low Water Response (OLWR) Plan is designed to deal with how water might be allocated under situations of reduced supply. When forced with data from the Coupled Global Climate Model 1 (CGCM1), the Guelph All Weather Storm Event Runoff (GAWSER) hydrologic model projects scenarios of reduced flows for the Grand River watershed, an area within the Province of Ontario. A level III declaration, which marks the highest stage of water emergency has never before been declared in the Province of Ontario, meaning there is uncertainty regarding how OLWR might operate. Using one scenario of climate change, this study explores the resiliency of the OLWR mechanism to operate under the demands of a changing climate and a growing population through interviews. Results show that the mechanism is not resilient enough to operate under conditions of reduced flow due to ambiguity in the mechanism and the tendency for humans to trump environmental uses of water, leading to detrimental effects on the fishery. Recommendations from this study suggest that ambiguities in the mechanism be revisited and clarified with a shift towards a proactive approach in order for environmental integrity to be upheld under scenarios of reduced flow.

Climate change threatens the integrity of many parks and protected areas worldwide. Mountain parks are amongst the most vulnerable, facing changes in temperature, hydrology, glaciation, fire frequency, and pest and disease outbreaks. Species migration is a key tool in climate change adaptation, but often physical and jurisdictional fragmentation makes it impossible for species to migrate, putting species at risk of extirpation or extinction. Transboundary collaboration and regional planning are tools that can help physically connected parks and protected areas overcome jurisdictional fragmentation and allow for species migration, giving species a greater chance at being able to adapt to climate change. However, there are many barriers to transboundary collaboration and regional planning that makes this difficult to achieve. This research aims to address the challenges parks face with regards to transboundary collaboration and regional planning, and provide possible solutions for overcoming these challenges. A qualitative research project was conducted to determine the state of transboundary collaboration and regional planning in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, using Jasper National Park, Mount Robson Provincial Park, and Willmore Wilderness Park as the study area. A document review, questionnaire, and Importance-Performance Analysis were conducted to determine: the current policy within the Parks Canada Agency, British Columbia Parks, and Alberta Parks in regards to the management implications of climate change; the degree to which transboundary collaboration and regional planning are occurring in and around the study area with regard to climate change; the challenges parks face with regards to transboundary collaboration and regional planning; how these challenges should be addressed; and to determine what park agencies and managers need to be able to participate in transboundary collaboration and regional planning. Ultimately, it became clear that while transboundary collaboration is a potentially effective tool for climate change adaptation, little transboundary collaboration is occurring within the study area. In order for this to occur, all parks must have appropriate legislation, policies, and plans in place; British Columbia Parks has these, but both Parks Canada and Alberta Parks do not. Parks planners and managers are not able to put priority on transboundary collaboration until it is mandated within the management plans. However, parks managers are supportive of transboundary collaboration for climate change and it seems likely that the parks will use this tool as it becomes increasingly necessary over the next 25 years.

Climate change is taking its toll on Afghanistan. Warming temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels over the last fifty years have led to innumerable weather anomalies causing droughts, floods, unseasonal precipitation, falling ground water tables, desertification, and loss of biodiversity. While it is projected that further change in climatic conditions will take place over the coming decades, the impacts of these environmental stresses on the living conditions and livelihoods of Afghans have already been significant and adverse. Among all population groups, rural communities in Afghanistan are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their strong dependence on agriculture for living. This exploratory research used a qualitative methodology to investigate and document firsthand the vulnerability of the rural communities to climate change impacts in the context of food security in Afghanistan. To this end, three villages in Balkh, Herat, and Nangarhar provinces were studied for their exposure to climate change and the communities’ adaptive capacity to cope with and avert the climate-related stresses. Additional key informant interviews were conducted to learn about similar issues in other rural regions of the country. The study found that climate change has substantially contributed to increased food insecurity in the rural communities throughout Afghanistan over the last two decades and that the rural households are facing real challenges to generate income from agricultural activities while taking desperate measures to cope with and adapt to climatic conditions.