This study investigates the interest rate pass through from the money market rate to the lending rate by utilizing monthly data of fifteen countries, grouped as high income, upper middle income and lower middle income, over the period 1999:01-2011:09. Taking the linear cointegration test of Engle-Granger as benchmark, we employ threshold cointegration tests of Enders and Siklos (2001) in order to account for the possible nonlinearities in the pass-through process. Empirical results reveal that the pass through process is complete in three countries / Republic of Korea, Latvia and Malaysia and the adjustment of the lending rate is symmetric in two countries / Armenia and Republic of Korea. Moreover, it is observed that the adjustment of the lending rate is upward sticky in six countries / Bolivia, Philippines, Malaysia, Dominican Republic, Thailand and Croatia, whereas it is downward sticky in seven countries / Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Latvia, Peru, Kuwait, Hong Kong and Czech Republic. Furthermore, our estimation results suggest that heterogeneities in the pass-through mechanism across countries can be mainly explained by income level, inflation, market power, financial sector development and market volatility.

This thesis estimates the quarterly electricity demand of Turkey. First of all proper seasonal time series model are found for the variables: electricity demand, temperature, gross domestic product and electricity price. After the right seasonal time series model are found Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) test is applied to each variable. The results of the test show that seasonal unit roots exist for the electricity price even it cannot be seen at the graph. The other variables have no seasonal unit roots when the proper seasonal time series model is chosen. Later, the cointegration is tested by looking at the vector autoregressive model. As the cointegration is seen vector error correction model is found. There is long-run equilibrium when the price is the dependent variable and independent variable is gross domestic product. Temperature is taken as exogenous variable and demand is not statistically significant.

The focus of this paper is to evaluate if forecast produced by the Central Bank of Sweden (Riksbanken) for the 12 month change in the consumer price index is unbiased? Results shows that for shorter horizons (h < 12) the mean forecast error is unbiased but for longer horizons its negatively biased when inference is done by Maximum entropy bootstrap technique. Can the unbiasedness be improved by strict ap- pliance to econometric methodology? Forecasting with a linear univariate model (seasonal ARIMA) and a multivariate model Vector Error Correction model (VECM) shows that when controlling for the presence of structural breaks VECM outperforms both prediction produced Riksbanken and ARIMA. However Riksbanken had the best precision in their forecast, estimated as MSFE

This study presents our attempt to examine the linkages and to investigate the linkage of stock price indexes among Taiwan, China and its major trading countries. Our empirical analysis employs daily data on stock price indexes over the period of January 2, 2000 to May 10, 2010. The total number of observations is about 2500. This study employ a sequence of time-series methodologies, including unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, Criterion, autocorrelation test, heteroscedasticity test, GARCH and Bi-GARCH. The findings of this study as follows. First, after first difference, every stock price indexes series all became stationary. Second, we found there has no long-run interrelationship among these stock markets. Third, we found that Taiwan¡¦s stock market exits leading role to China¡¦s stock market, but other countries¡¦ stock market lead Taiwan¡¦s stock market. For China, the stock market of United States, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong has a leading role to China¡¦s stock market. Only the rela-tionship between South Korea and China¡¦s stock market is independent. Forth, the result of autocorrelation test and ARCH test indicates that the influence of stock price indexes of major trading countries to Taiwan and China¡¦s stock price index has changed over time. Finally, the result of study indicates that every stock market can forecast its future trend by using its past stock data and investor can use the past stock data of stock market of major trading countries to forecast Taiwan and China¡¦s stock market.

Does monetary policy affect the real economy? If so, what is the transmission mechanism or channel through which these effects occur? These two questions are among the most important and controversial in macroeconomics. This dissertation presents some new empirical evidence that addresses each question for the U.S. and Chinese economies. Literature on monetary transmission suggests that the monetary policy can take effect on the real economy through several ways. The most noteworthy one is credit channels, including the bank lending channel and the interest channel. First, I use a new method to test for structural breaks in the U.S. monetary policy history and present some new empirical evidence to support an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Results show that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1955 to 1968, and its impact on the economy has become much smaller since 1981, but it still has a significant buffering effect on output by attenuating the effect of the interest channel. Second, I adopt the recently developed time series technique to explore the puzzling negative correlation between output and stock returns in China currently, and posit that it is due to a negative link between monetary policy and stock returns when monetary policy increases output. The monetary policy has not been transmitted well in the public sector which is the principal part of Chinese stock market, and increased investment capital from monetary expansion goes to real estate sector instead of the stock market. Last, I demonstrate how monetary policy has been transmitted into the public and private sectors of China through the credit channel. The fundamental identification problem inherent in using aggregated data that leads to failure in isolating demand shock from supply shock is explicitly solved by introducing control factors. I find that the monetary policy has great impact on private sector rather than public sector through credit channel in China. These findings have important practical implications for U.S. and China’s economic development by improving the efficiency of the monetary policy because a comprehensive understanding of monetary transmission will lead to better policy design.

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This study aims to investigate the direction of the relationship between financial deepening and economic growth after the completion of financial liberalization in Turkey. In order to do this, an unbalanced panel data set of 49 OECD and emerging countries for 1953-2005 period is examined with Granger causality and panel data estimation techniques. In the light of panel data analysis results, quarterly Turkish time series data for 1987-2006 period is examined by using Granger causality, cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) procedures. Although the unbalanced panel data analysis reveals a relationship that is from financial deepening to economic growth, country specific Granger causality analysis employed with the panel data gives the opposite relationship for Turkey. Moreover, it is observed that quarterly time series data analysis mainly gives a relationship that is from economic growth to financial deepening.

This study investigates the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships among the variables of stock returns and institutional investors' buy-sell difference in Taiwan's stock market for the sample periods from Jan., 2000 through May, 2009. Some econometrical methodologies are used in this study, such as unit test, vector autoregressive model, cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function. The major empirical results are shown as follows: 1. Cointegration test For the sample periods, one long-term equilibrium relationship is found from the Johansen's cointegration test, significantly with 5% confidence level between stock year returns and the buy-sell difference for the foreign investment institutions, the domestic investment institutions, and the dealers. The long-term equilibrium relationship is Ry=1.65*QFII+4.28*FUND+35.22*DLR-1142.6. 2. VECM estimation (1)With the vector error correction model (VECM) being applied to the sample periods, the findings indicate that the changes of stock returns are not influenced among the short-term dynamic relationships by the changes of institutional investors' buy-sell difference, but only affected by one-period-lag of itself. (2) Among the short-term dynamic relationships, the changes of foreign investment institutions' buy-sell difference are affected by one-period-lag of institutional investors that positively affected by one-period-lag of the dealers, and inversely affected by one-period-lag of itself and one-period-lag of the domestic investment institutions. However, it is positively affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which indicates foreign investment institutions follow positive feedback trading strategies. (3)The changes of the domestic investment institutions' buy-sell difference are only affected by one-period-lag of itself among the short-term dynamic relationships. (4)The changes of the dealers' buy-sell difference are positively affected among the short-term dynamic relationships by one-period-lag of the foreign investment institutions. As for the long-term relationships, it is affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which also indicates the dealers follow positive feedback trading strategies. (5)The foreign investment institutions and the dealers have the mutual feedback relationship.

Resulting from the deregulation and prosperity of the economic and financial sectors in Asia during 1980s, a significant increase in cross-bordered financial transactions ultimately accelerated the region of Southeast Asia to be on a process of financial integration and consequently diminished opportunities for portfolio diversification. Financial Integration is a multidimensional process through which allocation of financial assets becomes lastly borderless. This purpose of this paper is to examine a progress thus far in capital market integration or preferentially, the co-movement of the equity markets between the U.S. and the Southeast Asian nations: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines by employing the methodology of Gregory and Hansen Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis (ECM). The consequence of the U.S. market performance on each Southeast Asian national markets are extensively analyzed by decomposing monthly price-index time series into three distinct sub-periods based on an occurrence of the Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis in 2007. The results indicate that these four emerging markets had been considerable influenced by the U.S. market performance, regardless of crisis or non-crisis periods. Nevertheless, some countries like Indonesia and the Philippines acted differently during the pre-crisis and crisis sub-periods respectively due to their domestic market infrastructure and regulation adjustment. However, these two markets had eventually turned to share an interdependent long-run relationship with the U.S. equity market since the ending of the Subprime financial downturn. Moreover, this finding suggests that ongoing capital market integration in the Southeast Asian region would mitigate portfolio diversification benefits for investors by virtue of increasing in correlation among securities and assets. Therefore, more exhaustive investigation about equity market integration is significantly beneficial in macroeconomic and financial perspective.

[pt] Testes existentes para não-linearidade em Modelos de Correção de Erros são altamente intensivos computacionalmente e apresentam parâmetros de estorvo na distribuição assintótica, que precisam ser levantadas através de simulações por bootstrap. É proposto um teste consistente, implementável em qualquer pacote estatístico e que apresenta distribuição assintótica Qui-Quadrado. Além disso, experimentos de Monte Carlo mostram que em pequena amostra o teste tem boas propriedades de tamanho e poder, muitas vezes melhores do que os testes existentes. Também é apresentada uma condição sob a qual um estimador em dois estágios para os parâmetros do modelo é assintoticamente normal. A aplicação do modelo a preços internacionais de commodities agrícolas mostra evidência de ajuste não-linear nos preços de trigo. / [en] Existing tests for nonlinearity in vector error correction models are highly intensive computationally and have nuisance parameters in the asymptotic distribution, what calls for cumbersome bootstrap calculations in order to assess the distribution. Our work proposes a consistent test which is implementable in any statistical package and has Chi-Squared asymptotics. Moreover, Monte Carlo experiments show that in small samples our test has nice size and power properties, often better than the preexisting tests. We also provide a condition under which a consistent two step estimator for the model parameters is asymptotically normal. Application to international agricultural commodities prices show evidence of nonlinear adjustment to the long run equilibrium on the wheat prices.