Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-26T13:55:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 545117 bytes, checksum: 7ad3378bf0c824361e4be8d29161719b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-12 / The purpose this work was to evaluate milk quality in different production systems and its variation throughout the year. The database used in this work were from 943 milk farms from different regions: south, midwest and central of state of Minas Gerais and Vale Paraíba, state of São Paulo. Data totaled 18.026 samples, collected between January (2009) and September (2011), and it was granted by Danone Firm. The milk farms were classified in three different production systems: confined, semi-confined and extensive system (grass fed). Somatic cells count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC) and milk protein and fat contents were evaluated. The data was analyzed in a completely randomized design in a repeated measured scheme, and theproc MIXED procedure of SAS (2008) was used. The production system did not affect milk protein and fat contents, neither the SCC. However, the production system affected the TBC, indicating that TBC is related to the available structure for feeding animals. It is possible that the results are consequence of a payment program for quality, whichwas started by the milk industry in 2002. Seasonal variations in results of SCC, CBT and milk protein and fat contents were observed. The milk protein content was greater between March and June, while the milk fat content was greater between May and August. TBC and SCC were greater between December and March. In conclusion, production system does not affect milk protein and fat contents, neither SCC. However, confined systems have better TBC results. Furthermore, month and year affect the milk quality (TBC, SCC, milk protein and fat content results), where better results are observed in cold seasons. / Objetivou-se avaliar a qualidade do leite cru em diferentes sistemas de produção e sua variação ao longo do ano. Os dados utilizados nesse trabalho foram obtidos de 943 propriedades leiteiras das regiões do Sul de Minas, Centro-Oeste e Central Mineira no estado de Minas Gerais e na região do Vale do Paraíba no estado de São Paulo. Os mesmos foram concedidos pela Empresa Danone, em um total de 18.026 amostras, no período de janeiro de 2009 a setembro de 2011. As propriedades foram divididas em sistema de produção confinado, semi-confinado e extensivo. Os itens avaliados foram contagem de células somáticas (CCS), contagem bacteriana total (CBT) e teores de proteína e gordura. Os dados foram analisados em esquema de medidas repetidas no tempo, utilizando o procedimento proc MIXED do SAS (2008). Não houve efeito de sistema de produção sobre os teores de proteína, gordura e CCS. Já a CBT foi afetada pelo sistema de produção estando relacionada com o tipo de estrutura para alimentar os animais. Possivelmente, os resultados são consequência do programa de pagamento por qualidade implantando pelo laticínio desde o ano de 2002. Foram encontradas variações sazonais de CCS, CBT, proteína e gordura; sendo os valores de proteína mais elevados de Março a Junho, os valores de gordura mais elevados de Maio a Agosto, os valores de CBT e CCS mais elevados de Dezembro a Março.Conclui-se que o sistema de produção não interfere na porcentagem de gordura e proteína e CCS do leite. No entanto, sistemas confinados apresentam melhor padrão de CBT. Conclui-se, também, que tanto mês quanto ano são fatores que interferem na CBT, CCS, proteína e gordura do leite, sendo os melhores padrões encontrados nas épocas mais frias do ano.

nÃo hà / The objective of this study is to identify and characterize the existence of moral hazard in the dental plans market when there is some kind of sponsorship in cash counter installments. This paper compares the behavior between plans with total sponsorship, with partial sponsorship and without sponsorship. Count Models were used to measure the over use of dental services. Empirical data from a exclusively dental plan, characterized by ANS as Odontologic Group, were collected, processed, described and analyzed to test the hypotheses raised about the moral hazard reduction when there is any kind of sponsorship. The results revealed strong evidence of regionalism in demand for appointments, showing localities where the sponsorship effect decreases the demand for appointments and other locations where the same effect increases this same demand. / O objetivo deste estudo à identificar e caracterizar a existÃncia do risco moral no mercado de planos odontolÃgicos quando da existÃncia de algum tipo de patrocÃnio nas contraprestaÃÃes pecuniÃrias. Este trabalho compara o comportamento de utilizaÃÃo entre planos com patrocÃnio total, com patrocÃnio parcial e sem patrocÃnio. Fez-se uso dos modelos de contagem visando mensurar a sobreutilizaÃÃo dos serviÃos odontolÃgicos. Dados empÃricos oriundos de uma operadora exclusivamente odontolÃgica, caracterizada pela ANS como odontologia de grupo, foram coletados, tratados, descritos e analisados buscando testar as hipÃteses levantadas sobre a reduÃÃo do risco moral quando hà algum tipo de patrocÃnio. Os resultados revelaram fortes indÃcios de regionalismo na demanda por consultas, apresentando localidades onde o efeito de patrocÃnio diminui a demanda por consultas e outras localidades onde o mesmo efeito aumenta esta demanda.

Submitted by Cláudia Bueno (claudiamoura18@gmail.com) on 2016-01-08T15:32:37Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Thamara Venâncio de Almeida - 2015.pdf: 1390852 bytes, checksum: 5f0b1c9700873dd65b4e3d743efec82f (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-01-11T06:39:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Thamara Venâncio de Almeida - 2015.pdf: 1390852 bytes, checksum: 5f0b1c9700873dd65b4e3d743efec82f (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-11T06:39:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Thamara Venâncio de Almeida - 2015.pdf: 1390852 bytes, checksum: 5f0b1c9700873dd65b4e3d743efec82f (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-21 / For assessing compliance with the quality requirements established by the Normative Instruction No. 62, a milk sample each property or community tank should be analyzed on a monthly basis by one of the laboratories accredited by the Brazilian Laboratories Network for Milk Quality Control . There are still doubts about what would be the maximum temperature and the time of milk sample storage without jeopardizing the results of the electronic analysis. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of temperature and storage time of cooled samples of raw milk on the results of milk quality electronic analysis. Refrigerated raw milk samples were collected from expansion tanks for individual use of farms located in the middle region of the state of Goiás, and stored at four different temperatures (3 °C, 11 °C, 17 °C and 25 °C) for 16 days. Total bacterial count (TBC), somatic cell count (SCC) and chemical composition were performed daily. The results were submitted to analysis of variance in split plot design in randomized blocks, and the means were compared by Duncan test. We concluded that, when azidiol is added as preservative to samples for TBC, they can be analyzed up to 16 days after collection when stored at temperatures of 3 °C and 11 °C, and up to 10 days when stored at 17 °C. Moreover, when bronopol is added as preservative, samples for SCC and chemical composition analysis can be stored for up to 16 days after collection when stored at temperatures of 3 °C and 11 °C, and for up to seven days when stored at 17 °C. / Para a avaliação do cumprimento dos requisitos de qualidade estabelecidos pela Instrução Normativa nº 62, uma amostra de leite de cada propriedade ou tanque comunitário deve ser analisada mensalmente por um dos laboratórios credenciados pela Rede Brasileira de Laboratórios de Controle da Qualidade do Leite. Ainda existem dúvidas sobre quais seriam a temperatura e o tempo máximos de armazenamento das amostras de leite sem que houvesse comprometimento dos resultados das análises eletrônicas. Objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar os efeitos da temperatura e do tempo de armazenamento de amostras de leite cru refrigerado nos resultados das análises eletrônicas da qualidade do leite. Amostras de leite cru refrigerado foram coletadas de tanques de expansão de uso individual de fazendas localizadas na mesorregião Centro Goiano no Estado de Goiás e armazenadas em quatro temperaturas diferentes (3°C, 11°C, 17°C e 25°C) durante 16 dias. Foram realizadas diariamente análises de contagem bacteriana total (CBT), contagem de células somáticas (CCS) e composição química. Os resultados obtidos foram submetidos à análise de variância em esquema de parcelas subdivididas no tempo em delineamento de blocos ao acaso e as médias comparadas pelo teste de Duncan. Concluiu-se que as amostras destinadas à análise de CBT, adicionadas do conservante azidiol, podem ser analisadas por até 16 dias após a coleta quando armazenadas em temperaturas de 3°C e 11°C e por até 10 dias quando armazenadas a 17°C. E as amostras destinadas às análises de CCS e composição química, adicionadas do conservante bronopol, podem ser analisadas por até 16 dias após a coleta quando armazenadas em temperaturas de 3°C e 11°C e por até sete dias quando armazenadas a 17°C.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Vincent Amanor-Boadu / As the dairy industry faces the future, consumers’ demand for better milk quality and safety is increasing. Milk quality is of major interest to both consumers and dairy farmers alike. However, scientific data on milk quality in terms of somatic cell count (SCC) in Uganda and most developing countries has been lacking. This study used SCC to compare Southwestern Uganda’s milk quality against international standards. The study also sought to assess dairy farmers’ perceptions about milk quality. Milk samples were obtained from 100 farms in Mbarara and Kiruhura districts, the major cattle corridor in Uganda. The milk’s SCC was analyzed using a DeLaval DCC. A structured questionnaire surveyed farmers on milking procedures and milk-quality perception. Descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis was used to characterize and compare milk quality against the international benchmark. The study found that the 100 farms had an average SCC of 507,000 cells/ml. About 34% of farms in the study had SCC under 200,000 cells/ml, an indication of high-quality milk. Excluding 7% of the farms with SCC over 1,000,000 cells/ml, the remaining 93% had an average SCC of 276,000 cells/ml, a level comparable to international standards, well below the EU threshold of 400,000. The study also revealed that 98% of farmers considered milk quality as important or very important both to them and to the milk buyers. However, all farmers reported that they currently do not receive a milk-quality premium and are not penalized for poor quality. Seventy-nine percent of farmers reported the cooperative they belong to as their main source of information on management practices. An improved perception of milk quality both domestically and internationally will benefit Uganda’s dairy farmers and its dairy industry at large. Consumers must be assured that Uganda’s dairy industry, its government, industry stakeholders such as the Dairy Development Authority, the Uganda National Bureau of Standards, and the private sector place the utmost importance on the quality and safety of milk and other dairy products. New technologies to measure for SCC and strict food safety regulations will help improve the country’s milk-quality image, allowing Uganda’s dairy industry to tap into major milk export markets. Most developed countries have seen increased raw-milk quality or reduced SCC as a result of strong regulatory pressure.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The analysis of multidimensional (multivariate) data sets is a very important area of research in applied statistics. Over the decades many techniques have been developed to deal with such datasets. The multivariate techniques that have been developed include inferential analysis, regression analysis, discriminant analysis, cluster analysis and many more exploratory methods. Most of these methods deal with cases where the data contain numerical variables. However, there are powerful methods in the literature that also deal with multidimensional binary and count data. The primary purpose of this thesis is to discuss the exploratory and inferential techniques that can be used for binary and count data. In Chapter 2 of this thesis we give the detail of correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis. These methods are used to analyze the data in contingency tables. Chapter 3 is devoted to cluster analysis. In this chapter we explain four well-known clustering methods and we also discuss the distance (dissimilarity) measures available in the literature for binary and count data. Chapter 4 contains an explanation of metric and non-metric multidimensional scaling. These methods can be used to represent binary or count data in a lower dimensional Euclidean space. In Chapter 5 we give a method for inferential analysis called the analysis of distance. This method use a similar reasoning as the analysis of variance, but the inference is based on a pseudo F-statistic with the p-value obtained using permutations of the data. Chapter 6 contains real-world applications of these above methods on two special data sets called the Biolog data and Barents Fish data. The secondary purpose of the thesis is to demonstrate how the above techniques can be performed in the software package R. Several R packages and functions are discussed throughout this thesis. The usage of these functions is also demonstrated with appropriate examples. Attention is also given to the interpretation of the output and graphics. The thesis ends with some general conclusions and ideas for further research. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die analise van meerdimensionele (meerveranderlike) datastelle is ’n belangrike area van navorsing in toegepaste statistiek. Oor die afgelope dekades is daar verskeie tegnieke ontwikkel om sulke data te ontleed. Die meerveranderlike tegnieke wat ontwikkel is sluit in inferensie analise, regressie analise, diskriminant analise, tros analise en vele meer verkennende data analise tegnieke. Die meerderheid van hierdie metodes hanteer gevalle waar die data numeriese veranderlikes bevat. Daar bestaan ook kragtige metodes in die literatuur vir die analise van meerdimensionele binêre en telling data. Die primêre doel van hierdie tesis is om tegnieke vir verkennende en inferensiële analise van binêre en telling data te bespreek. In Hoofstuk 2 van hierdie tesis bespreek ons ooreenkoms analise en kanoniese ooreenkoms analise. Hierdie metodes word gebruik om data in gebeurlikheidstabelle te analiseer. Hoofstuk 3 bevat tegnieke vir tros analise. In hierdie hoofstuk verduidelik ons vier gewilde tros analise metodes. Ons bespreek ook die afstand maatstawwe wat beskikbaar is in die literatuur vir binêre en telling data. Hoofstuk 4 bevat ’n verduideliking van metriese en nie-metriese meerdimensionele skalering. Hierdie metodes kan gebruik word om binêre of telling data in ‘n lae dimensionele Euclidiese ruimte voor te stel. In Hoofstuk 5 beskryf ons ’n inferensie metode wat bekend staan as die analise van afstande. Hierdie metode gebruik ’n soortgelyke redenasie as die analise van variansie. Die inferensie hier is gebaseer op ’n pseudo F-toetsstatistiek en die p-waardes word verkry deur gebruik te maak van permutasies van die data. Hoofstuk 6 bevat toepassings van bogenoemde tegnieke op werklike datastelle wat bekend staan as die Biolog data en die Barents Fish data. Die sekondêre doel van die tesis is om te demonstreer hoe hierdie tegnieke uitgevoer word in the R sagteware. Verskeie R pakette en funksies word deurgaans bespreek in die tesis. Die gebruik van die funksies word gedemonstreer met toepaslike voorbeelde. Aandag word ook gegee aan die interpretasie van die afvoer en die grafieke. Die tesis sluit af met algemene gevolgtrekkings en voorstelle vir verdere navorsing.

This thesis consists of four papers concerning modelling of count data and tourism demand. For three of the papers the focus is on the integer-valued autoregressive moving average model class (INARMA), and especially on the ENAR(l) model. The fourth paper studies the interaction between households' choice of number of leisure trips and number of overnight stays within a bivariate count data modelling framework. Paper [I] extends the basic INAR(1) model to enable more flexible and realistic empirical economic applications. The model is generalized by relaxing some of the model's basic independence assumptions. Results are given in terms of first and second conditional and unconditional order moments. Extensions to general INAR(p), time-varying, multivariate and threshold models are also considered. Estimation by conditional least squares and generalized method of moments techniques is feasible. Monte Carlo simulations for two of the extended models indicate reasonable estimation and testing properties. An illustration based on the number of Swedish mechanical paper and pulp mills is considered. Paper[II] considers the robustness of a conventional Dickey-Fuller (DF) test for the testing of a unit root in the INAR(1) model. Finite sample distributions for a model with Poisson distributed disturbance terms are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. These distributions are wider than those of AR(1) models with normal distributed error terms. As the drift and sample size, respectively, increase the distributions appear to tend to T-2) and standard normal distributions. The main results are summarized by an approximating equation that also enables calculation of critical values for any sample and drift size. Paper[III] utilizes the INAR(l) model to model the day-to-day movements in the number of guest nights in hotels. By cross-sectional and temporal aggregation an INARMA(1,1) model for monthly data is obtained. The approach enables easy interpretation and econometric modelling of the parameters, in terms of daily mean check-in and check-out probability. Empirically approaches accounting for seasonality by dummies and using differenced series, as well as forecasting, are studied for a series of Norwegian guest nights in Swedish hotels. In a forecast evaluation the improvements by introducing economic variables is minute. Paper[IV] empirically studies household's joint choice of the number of leisure trips and the total night to stay on these trips. The paper introduces a bivariate count hurdle model to account for the relative high frequencies of zeros. A truncated bivariate mixed Poisson lognormal distribution, allowing for both positive as well as negative correlation between the count variables, is utilized. Inflation techniques are used to account for clustering of leisure time to weekends. Simulated maximum likelihood is used as estimation method. A small policy study indicates that households substitute trips for nights as the travel costs increase. / <p>Härtill 4 uppsatser.</p> / digitalisering@umu

The WikiLeaks Afghanistan war logs contain more than 76 000 reports about fatalities and their circumstances in the US led Afghanistan war, covering the period from January 2004 to December 2009. In this paper we use those reports to build statistical models to help us understand the mortality rates associated with specific circumstances. We choose an approach that combines Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) with negative binomial based recursive partitioning. LDA is used to process the natural language information contained in each report summary. We estimate latent topics and assign each report to one of them. These topics - in addition to other variables in the data set - subsequently serve as explanatory variables for modeling the number of fatalities of the civilian population, ISAF Forces, Anti-Coalition Forces and the Afghan National Police or military as well as the combined number of fatalities. Modeling is carried out with manifest mixtures of negative binomial distributions estimated with model-based recursive partitioning. For each group of fatalities, we identify segments with different mortality rates that correspond to a small number of topics and other explanatory variables as well as their interactions. Furthermore, we carve out the similarities between segments and connect them to stories that have been covered in the media. This provides an unprecedented description of the war in Afghanistan covered by the war logs. Additionally, our approach can serve as an example as to how modern statistical methods may lead to extra insight if applied to problems of data journalism. (author's abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

(in English): This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the famous Czech aristocrat, official and philanthropist Charles Chotek in his roles of life. Karel Chotek successively held the authority of the provincial chief of Trieste, Innsbruck and Prague. The period of his administration in the Czech countries is characterized by great development of economy and social institutions. The thesis is divided into two major parts, the first is represented by the study and the second are supplements with the editions of used archives - diary, memorabilia and autobiography. The chapters are divided thematically-chronologically according to a roles, which Count Chotek in his life held - a nobleman, son, brother, student, husband, father, officer, philanthropist, traveller, observer of the revolutionary year of 1848, a businessman, builder, landowner and social being. The exception is chapter two, which gives a theoretical introduction to the topic of research of diaries, memoirs and autobiographies. In conclusion, I think about the personality, character and temperament of Count Chotek.

The relations between the Eastern Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Church have long been studied over the years in academia. Much focus has been placed upon the Fourth Crusade as the final act that brought the schism of 1054 into full development between the two churches. However, it was during the First Crusade that the Roman Catholic Church made its first concrete efforts to repair relations with the Eastern Orthodox Church. Yet such efforts were eventually twisted to suit the purposes of some of the crusading lords, and thus becoming arguably the largest blow to church reunification because it lead to the permanent formation of an anti-Greek attitude in Latin Europe.

[pt] Os modelos lineares generalizados auto regressivos com médias móveis (do inglês GARMA), possibilitam a modelagem de séries temporais de dados de contagem com estrutura de correlação similares aos dos modelos ARMA. Neste trabalho é desenvolvida uma extensão multivariada do modelo GARMA, considerando a especificação de um modelo Poisson bivariado a partir da distribuição de Kocherlakota e Kocherlakota (1992), a qual será denominada de modelo Poisson BGARMA. O modelo proposto é adequado para séries de contagens estacionárias, sendo possível, através de funções de ligação apropriadas, introduzir deterministicamente o efeito de sazonalidade e de tendência. A investigação das propriedades usuais dos estimadores de máxima verossimilhança (viés, eficiência e distribuição) foi realizada através de simulações de Monte Carlo. Com o objetivo de comparar o desempenho e a aderência do modelo proposto, este foi aplicado a dois pares de séries reais bivariadas de dados de contagem. O primeiro par de séries apresenta as contagens mensais de óbitos neonatais para duas faixas de dias de vida. O segundo par de séries refere-se a contagens de acidentes de automóveis diários em dois períodos: vespertino e noturno. Os resultados do modelo proposto, quando comparados com aqueles obtidos através do ajuste de um modelo Gaussiano bivariado Vector Autoregressive (VAR), indicam que o modelo Poisson BGARMA é capaz de capturar de forma adequada as variações de pares de séries de dados de contagem e de realizar previsões com erros aceitáveis, além de produzir previsões probabilísticas para as séries. / [en] Generalized autoregressive linear models with moving average (GARMA) allow the modeling of discrete time series with correlation structure similar to those of ARMA’s models. In this work we developed an extension of a univariate Poisson GARMA model by considerating the specification of a bivariate Poisson model through the distribution presented on Kocherlakota and Kocherlakota (1992), which will be called Poisson BGARMA model. The proposed model not only is suitable for stationary discrete series, but also allows us to take into consideration the effect of seasonality and trend. The investigation of the usual properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (bias, efficiency and distribution) was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Aiming to compare the performance and compliance of the proposed model, it was applied to two pairs of series of bivariate count data. The first pair is the monthly counts of neonatal deaths to two lanes of days. The second pair refers to counts of daily car accidents in two distinct periods: afternoon and evening. The results of our model when compared with those obtained by fitting a bivariate Vector Autoregressive Gaussian model (VAR) indicates that the Poisson BGARMA model is able to proper capture the variability of bivariate vectors of real time series of count data, producing forecasts with acceptable errors and allowing one to obtain probability forecasts.