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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
481

Choosing the Right Treatment Option for the Right R/M HNSCC Patient: Should We Adhere to PFE for First-Line Therapy?

Lübbers, Katharina, Pavlychenko, Mykola, Wald, Theresa, Wiegand, Susanne, Dietz, Andreas, Zebralla, Veit, Wichmann, Gunnar 30 March 2023 (has links)
Background: The landmark EXTREME trial established cisplatin, 5-fluorouracil and cetuximab (PFE) as first-line chemotherapy (1L-ChT) for recurrent/metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC). We were interested in outcome differences of R/M HNSCC in 1L-ChT and factors influencing outcome in certain subgroups, especially patients receiving PFE, and the value of PFE compared to other 1L-ChT regimens to provide real world evidence (RWE). Methods: For this retrospective monocentric study, 124 R/M HNSCC patients without curative surgical or radiotherapy options receiving at least one cycle of 1L-ChT were eligible. We analyzed their outcome using Kaplan-Meier plot and Cox regression to identify predictors for prolonged survival. Results: Subgroups benefiting significantly from PFE were patients suffering from an index HNSCC outside the oropharynx. The PFE regimen proved to be superior to all other 1L-ChT regimens in clinical routine. Significant outcome differences between PFE treatment within or outside controlled trials were not seen. Conclusion: This retrospective analysis provides RWE for factors linked to improved outcome. Subgroup analyses highlight the lasting value of PFE among the growing spectrum of 1L-ChT. Importantly, fit smokers with high level alcohol consumption benefit from PFE; considering the patient’s lifestyle factors, PFE should not be ignored in decision-making.
482

TEMPORAL EVENT MODELING OF SOCIAL HARM WITH HIGH DIMENSIONAL AND LATENT COVARIATES

Xueying Liu (13118850) 09 September 2022 (has links)
<p>    </p> <p>The counting process is the fundamental of many real-world problems with event data. Poisson process, used as the background intensity of Hawkes process, is the most commonly used point process. The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process fits to temporal event data, spatial-temporal event data, and event data with covariates. We study the Hawkes process that fits to heterogeneous drug overdose data via a novel semi-parametric approach. The counting process is also related to survival data based on the fact that they both study the occurrences of events over time. We fit a Cox model to temporal event data with a large corpus that is processed into high dimensional covariates. We study the significant features that influence the intensity of events. </p>
483

Investigating the Impact of Age-Biased Samples on Lifetime Prediction Models of Traffic Signs

Wickramarachchi, Anupa, Jayasinghe, Nuwan January 2024 (has links)
The thesis investigates the impact of age-biased sampling on the accuracy of lifetime prediction models for traffic signs. The bias in question originates from age-biased sampling as a result of the inspection paradox. This phenomenon occurs because longer intervals have a higher probability of being observed compared to shorter intervals, leading to a skewed representation in the data. The research employs a dual approach: firstly, conducting an extensive analysis of real data on traffic sign longevity using a Weibull Survival Model. This analysis is based on the data set compiled by Saleh et al., (2023). Secondly, the study sets up a Monte Carlo simulation to systematically explore the effects of varying degrees and patterns of age bias on the sample. The simulation parameters are derived from the original Weibull Model parameters, obtained from the real dataset. This approach ensures that the simulations closely replicate the actual parameters and estimates. The comparison of the true shape, scale, intercept, and the coefficients associated with the covariates against the simulated estimates indicates a significant bias in the dataset. The study also examines the impact of this bias on the predictive capabilities of various models: Weibull Modeling, Cox Proportional Hazards, Kaplan Meier, and Random Survival Forest. This is done by comparing the true means and medians of the simulated data with the estimates from each model. The findings show that all models exhibit large deviations from the actual means and medians at varying bias levels in the simulated data. The accuracy of the predictions is measured using the Brier Score. This score also shows significant deviations from the prediction accuracy of the original Weibull Model applied to the real dataset, especially when the bias levels vary across simulated datasets. Given these findings, the study advises against using the aforementioned methods for lifetime modeling of traffic signs when there is age bias due to the inspection paradox.
484

Trafic aérien de passagers au Canada : une analyse exploratoire du modèle origine-destination de Transports Canada pour le marché intérieur

Cissé, Ismaëlh Ahmed 20 April 2018 (has links)
Le dynamisme du secteur aérien canadien amène Transports Canada à réviser régulièrement ses techniques de modélisation du trafic de passagers afin d’améliorer la performance prédictive de ses modèles. Ce travail explore différentes versions d’un modèle PODM (Passanger Origin-Destination Model) que Transports Canada utilise pour prévoir le trafic de passagers entre une origine et une destination à l’intérieur du Canada avec des données de panel (i.e. longitudinales et transversales). Deux formes paramétriques (log-linéaire et Box-Cox) sont estimées dans leurs versions empilées, avec des effets fixes/aléatoires et avec des coefficients individuels variables (fixes/aléatoires). Nous proposons également des estimations non paramétriques à noyaux pour explorer les non-linéarités qui caractérisent la relation entre le nombre de passagers par couple origine-destination et le prix du billet, le PIB des zones d’origine et de destination, la durée en voiture du trajet et la fréquence des vols. L’hypothèse d’empilement des données et les formes fonctionnelles postulées se révèlent statistiquement inadéquates. La prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité des trajets et des effets temporels par l’inclusion d’effets fixes/aléatoires dans les modèles paramétriques est également rejetée par nos tests. Les modèles à coefficients variables individuels et les estimations non paramétriques se révèlent les méthodes les plus pertinentes pour capturer l’hétérogénéité entre trajets, les chocs temporels ou les non-linéarités présentes dans les relations d’intérêt. Mots clés : Box-Cox, transport aérien, trafic de passagers, origine-destination, Transports Canada, non paramétrique, panels.
485

考慮信用風險下新金融商品之評價分析

許家瑜, Hsu Chia Yu Unknown Date (has links)
本文之信用風險模型屬於簡約模型(Reduced Form Model)之範疇,以COX過程解釋違約過程,解釋為何企業會發生連帶倒閉的現象。在考慮信用風險後,各期所產生之現金流量變得具不確定性,因此在計算現金流量之現值時,折現因子就必須考慮信用風險溢酬,本文選用信用風險模型中的一大分支-約簡模型,將信用風險量化(包含系統風險及非系統風險),進而估計出信用價差期間結構;就如同無風險利率期間結構對固定收益商品之重要性,在估計出公司之信用價差期間結構後,即可針對該公司發行之各種商品進行評價分析。本文並以花旗所羅門美邦控股公司為例進行實證,利用公司債理論價格與市價之誤差平方和,求解違約過程之參數估計值及信用價差期間結構;接著,針對花旗所羅門美邦控股公司所發行之連動債券〝TRAGETS〞,進行評價分析並比較考慮信用風險與否是否有助於理論價格與市價之配適。
486

Les modèles de régression dynamique et leurs applications en analyse de survie et fiabilité / Dynamic regression models and their applications in survival and reliability analysis

Tran, Xuan Quang 26 September 2014 (has links)
Cette thèse a été conçu pour explorer les modèles dynamiques de régression, d’évaluer les inférences statistiques pour l’analyse des données de survie et de fiabilité. Ces modèles de régression dynamiques que nous avons considérés, y compris le modèle des hasards proportionnels paramétriques et celui de la vie accélérée avec les variables qui peut-être dépendent du temps. Nous avons discuté des problèmes suivants dans cette thèse.Nous avons présenté tout d’abord une statistique de test du chi-deux généraliséeY2nquiest adaptative pour les données de survie et fiabilité en présence de trois cas, complètes,censurées à droite et censurées à droite avec les covariables. Nous avons présenté en détailla forme pratique deY2nstatistique en analyse des données de survie. Ensuite, nous avons considéré deux modèles paramétriques très flexibles, d’évaluer les significations statistiques pour ces modèles proposées en utilisantY2nstatistique. Ces modèles incluent du modèle de vie accélérés (AFT) et celui de hasards proportionnels (PH) basés sur la distribution de Hypertabastic. Ces deux modèles sont proposés pour étudier la distribution de l’analyse de la duré de survie en comparaison avec d’autre modèles paramétriques. Nous avons validé ces modèles paramétriques en utilisantY2n. Les études de simulation ont été conçus.Dans le dernier chapitre, nous avons proposé les applications de ces modèles paramétriques à trois données de bio-médicale. Le premier a été fait les données étendues des temps de rémission des patients de leucémie aiguë qui ont été proposées par Freireich et al. sur la comparaison de deux groupes de traitement avec des informations supplémentaires sur les log du blanc du nombre de globules. Elle a montré que le modèle Hypertabastic AFT est un modèle précis pour ces données. Le second a été fait sur l’étude de tumeur cérébrale avec les patients de gliome malin, ont été proposées par Sauerbrei & Schumacher. Elle a montré que le meilleur modèle est Hypertabastic PH à l’ajout de cinq variables de signification. La troisième demande a été faite sur les données de Semenova & Bitukov, à concernant les patients de myélome multiple. Nous n’avons pas proposé un modèle exactement pour ces données. En raison de cela était les intersections de temps de survie.Par conséquent, nous vous conseillons d’utiliser un autre modèle dynamique que le modèle de la Simple Cross-Effect à installer ces données. / This thesis was designed to explore the dynamic regression models, assessing the sta-tistical inference for the survival and reliability data analysis. These dynamic regressionmodels that we have been considered including the parametric proportional hazards andaccelerated failure time models contain the possibly time-dependent covariates. We dis-cussed the following problems in this thesis.At first, we presented a generalized chi-squared test statisticsY2nthat is a convenient tofit the survival and reliability data analysis in presence of three cases: complete, censoredand censored with covariates. We described in detail the theory and the mechanism to usedofY2ntest statistic in the survival and reliability data analysis. Next, we considered theflexible parametric models, evaluating the statistical significance of them by usingY2nandlog-likelihood test statistics. These parametric models include the accelerated failure time(AFT) and a proportional hazards (PH) models based on the Hypertabastic distribution.These two models are proposed to investigate the distribution of the survival and reliabilitydata in comparison with some other parametric models. The simulation studies were de-signed, to demonstrate the asymptotically normally distributed of the maximum likelihood estimators of Hypertabastic’s parameter, to validate of the asymptotically property of Y2n test statistic for Hypertabastic distribution when the right censoring probability equal 0% and 20%.n the last chapter, we applied those two parametric models above to three scenes ofthe real-life data. The first one was done the data set given by Freireich et al. on thecomparison of two treatment groups with additional information about log white blood cellcount, to test the ability of a therapy to prolong the remission times of the acute leukemiapatients. It showed that Hypertabastic AFT model is an accurate model for this dataset.The second one was done on the brain tumour study with malignant glioma patients, givenby Sauerbrei & Schumacher. It showed that the best model is Hypertabastic PH onadding five significance covariates. The third application was done on the data set given by Semenova & Bitukov on the survival times of the multiple myeloma patients. We did not propose an exactly model for this dataset. Because of that was an existing oneintersection of survival times. We, therefore, suggest fitting other dynamic model as SimpleCross-Effect model for this dataset.
487

Детекција биоактивних супстанци одабраних врста гљива рода Ganoderma (Basidiomycota) и њихова биолошка активност / Detekcija bioaktivnih supstanci odabranih vrsta gljiva roda Ganoderma (Basidiomycota) i njihova biološka aktivnost / Detection of bioactive substances selected fungal species of the genus Ganoderma (Basidiomycota) and their biological activity

Rašeta Milena 23 September 2016 (has links)
<p>&nbsp;У оквиру ове докторске дисертације испитан је хемијски састав и биолошке активности ЕtOH, H<sub>2</sub>Oи CHCl<sub>3&nbsp;</sub> екстраката четири врсте гљива рода<em> Ganoderma</em>&nbsp; (Basidiomycota):&nbsp;<em> G. applanatum,&nbsp; G. lucidum,G. pfeifferi,&nbsp; G. resinaceum</em>&nbsp; са територије Војводине.Хемијски састав анализираних врста је одређен<br />применом: ААЅ методе (састав макро-&nbsp; имикроелемената у сувим остацима гљива) и LC-MS/MS технике (квантитативни састав фенолних једињења и флавоноида) при чему је детектовано 12 једињења. Спектрофотометријским методама је одређен садржај протеина, шећера, укупних фенола и флавоноида, код којих је највећи садржај протеина утврђен за ЕtOH екстракте&nbsp;<em> G. applanatum&nbsp; </em>и&nbsp; <em>G. pfeifferi</em>. Испитивања биолошких активности екстраката обухватила су: одређивање<span id="cke_bm_779S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><em>&nbsp; in vitro</em><span id="cke_bm_779E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp; и&nbsp;<em> in vivo</em> антиоксидантне, антимикробне, антиинфламаторне, антипролиферативне и антијабето<span id="cke_bm_780E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>гене&nbsp;&nbsp; aктивности.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Антиоксидантна активност (способност неутрализације слободних радикала и редукциони потенцијал) је одређена спектрофотометријским методама, при којој су најбољу активност остварили Н<sub>2</sub>О екстракти&nbsp;<em> G</em>. <em>applanatum.</em> Антимикробнa активност&nbsp; анализираних екстраката одређена је испитивањем антибактеријског, антифунгалног и антивиралног потенцијала где се издвојила<em> G. pfeifferi</em> врста. Антиинфламаторни потенцијал EtOH и&nbsp; CHCl<sub>3 </sub>екстраката одређен је<em>&nbsp; ex vivo&nbsp;</em> методом мерењем способности инхибиције продукције медијатора инфламације&nbsp; (продукти&nbsp; метаболизма арахидонске киселине) при којој су бољу активност испољили CHCl<sub>3</sub> екстракти.</p><p>Ефекат EtOH и H<sub>2</sub>O екстраката врста рода Ganoderma&nbsp;&nbsp; на раст MCF ћелијске линије испитан је MTT тестом, а посебно су се издвојили&nbsp; EtOH&nbsp; екстракти врста после 72h.</p><p>Остварена антидијабетогена активност EtOH и Н<sub>2</sub>О екстраката врста&nbsp; <span id="cke_bm_795S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><em>G. pfeifferi&nbsp; </em><span id="cke_bm_795E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>и&nbsp;<em> G. resinaceum</em>&nbsp; код алоксан-индукованог&nbsp;<em> D. mell<span id="cke_bm_796E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>itus-a&nbsp;</em> на&nbsp; експерименталним&nbsp; животињама&nbsp; праћена je регенерацијом&nbsp; &szlig;- ћелија&nbsp; Лангерхансових острваца панкреаса. Као потенцијални нефро-&nbsp; и&nbsp; хепатопротективни агенси се издвајају екстракти<em>&nbsp; G. resinaceum.</em></p><p>Сумарно, укупни биопотенцијал анализираних врста рода&nbsp; Ganoderma&nbsp; на основу спроведених анализа хемијске&nbsp;&nbsp; kарактеризације и биолошке активности упућује&nbsp; на&nbsp; могућност њихове потенцијалне примене као нутрацеутика и додатака исхрани, у будућности уз неопходност додатних микохемијских истраживања ових врста, посебно терпеноида и полисахарида, као и других биолошких активности као што је неуропротективна.</p> / <p>&nbsp;U okviru ove doktorske disertacije ispitan je hemijski sastav i biološke aktivnosti EtOH, H<sub>2</sub>Oi CHCl<sub>3&nbsp;</sub> ekstrakata četiri vrste gljiva roda<em> Ganoderma</em>&nbsp; (Basidiomycota):&nbsp;<em> G. applanatum,&nbsp; G. lucidum,G. pfeifferi,&nbsp; G. resinaceum</em>&nbsp; sa teritorije Vojvodine.Hemijski sastav analiziranih vrsta je određen<br />primenom: AAЅ metode (sastav makro-&nbsp; imikroelemenata u suvim ostacima gljiva) i LC-MS/MS tehnike (kvantitativni sastav fenolnih jedinjenja i flavonoida) pri čemu je detektovano 12 jedinjenja. Spektrofotometrijskim metodama je određen sadržaj proteina, šećera, ukupnih fenola i flavonoida, kod kojih je najveći sadržaj proteina utvrđen za EtOH ekstrakte&nbsp;<em> G. applanatum&nbsp; </em>i&nbsp; <em>G. pfeifferi</em>. Ispitivanja bioloških aktivnosti ekstrakata obuhvatila su: određivanje<span id="cke_bm_779S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><em>&nbsp; in vitro</em><span id="cke_bm_779E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp; i&nbsp;<em> in vivo</em> antioksidantne, antimikrobne, antiinflamatorne, antiproliferativne i antijabeto<span id="cke_bm_780E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>gene&nbsp;&nbsp; aktivnosti.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Antioksidantna aktivnost (sposobnost neutralizacije slobodnih radikala i redukcioni potencijal) je određena spektrofotometrijskim metodama, pri kojoj su najbolju aktivnost ostvarili N<sub>2</sub>O ekstrakti&nbsp;<em> G</em>. <em>applanatum.</em> Antimikrobna aktivnost&nbsp; analiziranih ekstrakata određena je ispitivanjem antibakterijskog, antifungalnog i antiviralnog potencijala gde se izdvojila<em> G. pfeifferi</em> vrsta. Antiinflamatorni potencijal EtOH i&nbsp; CHCl<sub>3 </sub>ekstrakata određen je<em>&nbsp; ex vivo&nbsp;</em> metodom merenjem sposobnosti inhibicije produkcije medijatora inflamacije&nbsp; (produkti&nbsp; metabolizma arahidonske kiseline) pri kojoj su bolju aktivnost ispoljili CHCl<sub>3</sub> ekstrakti.</p><p>Efekat EtOH i H<sub>2</sub>O ekstrakata vrsta roda Ganoderma&nbsp;&nbsp; na rast MCF ćelijske linije ispitan je MTT testom, a posebno su se izdvojili&nbsp; EtOH&nbsp; ekstrakti vrsta posle 72h.</p><p>Ostvarena antidijabetogena aktivnost EtOH i N<sub>2</sub>O ekstrakata vrsta&nbsp; <span id="cke_bm_795S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><em>G. pfeifferi&nbsp; </em><span id="cke_bm_795E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>i&nbsp;<em> G. resinaceum</em>&nbsp; kod aloksan-indukovanog&nbsp;<em> D. mell<span id="cke_bm_796E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>itus-a&nbsp;</em> na&nbsp; eksperimentalnim&nbsp; životinjama&nbsp; praćena je regeneracijom&nbsp; &szlig;- ćelija&nbsp; Langerhansovih ostrvaca pankreasa. Kao potencijalni nefro-&nbsp; i&nbsp; hepatoprotektivni agensi se izdvajaju ekstrakti<em>&nbsp; G. resinaceum.</em></p><p>Sumarno, ukupni biopotencijal analiziranih vrsta roda&nbsp; Ganoderma&nbsp; na osnovu sprovedenih analiza hemijske&nbsp;&nbsp; karakterizacije i biološke aktivnosti upućuje&nbsp; na&nbsp; mogućnost njihove potencijalne primene kao nutraceutika i dodataka ishrani, u budućnosti uz neophodnost dodatnih mikohemijskih istraživanja ovih vrsta, posebno terpenoida i polisaharida, kao i drugih bioloških aktivnosti kao što je neuroprotektivna.</p> / <p>Whitin this doctoral thesis the chemical composition and biological activity of EtOH, H<span id="cke_bm_699S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><sub>2</sub><span id="cke_bm_699E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>O and CHCl<sub>3 </sub>extracts of four fungal species which belong to genus<em> Ganoderma&nbsp;</em> (phylum Basidiomycota)<span id="cke_bm_700E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>:&nbsp;<em> G. applanatum,&nbsp; G. lucidum,&nbsp; G. pfeifferi,&nbsp; G. resinaceum</em>&nbsp; were determinated. The samples were collected from different localities in Vojvodina. Chemical characterization included: AAS methods (compositon of macro- and&nbsp; microelements in d.w. of fungi) and LC-MS/MS technique (quantitative analysis of phenolic compounds and flavonoids) wherein the 12 selected phenolic compounds were detected. The total proteins, sugars, phenolics and flavonoids content were&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; determined using spectrophotometric methods. The highest protein content was determined in EtOH extracts of<span id="cke_bm_707S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><em> G. applanatum&nbsp; </em><span id="cke_bm_707E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>and <em>G. pfeifferi</em>&nbsp; species. In order to assess the biological potential, the in vitro&nbsp; and in vivo antioxidant, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, antiproliferative and antidiabetic activities of the extracts were investigated.<span id="cke_bm_708E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><br />&nbsp;&nbsp; The antioxidant activity (the ability of neutralizing free radicals and reduction potential) estimated byspectrophotometric methods. The highest&nbsp;&nbsp; antioxidant potential was noticed in H<sub>2</sub>O extracts of&nbsp; <em>G. applanatum.</em> Evaluation of antimicrobial activity included the estimation of antibacterial, antifungal and antiviral activity, whereby the&nbsp; species&nbsp;<em> G. pfeifferi&nbsp;</em> showed the highest potential The anti-inflammatory activity of EtOH and&nbsp; CHCl<sub>3</sub>&nbsp; extracts was determined by&nbsp; ex vivo&nbsp; method measuring the ability of production inhibition of inflammation mediators&nbsp; (products of arachidonic acid metabolism), where the CHCl<sub>3</sub>&nbsp; extracts were exhibited better activity.<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; The effect of EtOH and H<sub>2</sub>O extracts of<em>&nbsp; Ganoderma</em> species on the growth of the cell line MCF-7, has been examined using MTT assay (stand out ethanolic extracts of analyzed species after 72h incubation period).<br />&nbsp;&nbsp; Achieved antidiabetic activity of EtOH and H<sub>2</sub>O extracts o<em>f<span id="cke_bm_725S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span> G. pfeifferi<span id="cke_bm_725E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>&nbsp; </em>an<em>d G. resinaceum</em>&nbsp; at alloxan-i<span id="cke_bm_726E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>nduced D. mellitus in experimental animals was followed by regeneration of&nbsp; cells of Langerhans pancreatic islets. Extracts of&nbsp;<em> G.&nbsp;&nbsp; resinaceum&nbsp;</em> were allocated as a potential nephro- and&nbsp; hepatoprotective agents.<br />In summary, the overall biological potential of the analyzed species of the genus&nbsp; <em>Ganoderma</em>&nbsp; based on results for chemical and biological characterization indicate that they could be used&nbsp; as a nutraceuticals and food supplements in the future, with further the necessity of additional mycochemical investigation (especially terpenoids and polysaccharides) and other biological activity such as neuroprotective.</p>
488

以比例危險模型估計房貸借款人提前清償及違約風險

鍾岳昌, Chung, Yueh-chang Unknown Date (has links)
房屋貸款借款人對於其所負貸款債務的處分有兩種潛在風險行為,分別是提前清償及違約。這兩種借款人風險行為不管是對金融機構的資產管理,或是對近年在財務金融領域的不動產證券化而言,都是相當重要的探討議題,原因在於提前清償及違約帶來了利息收益與現金流量的不確定性,進而影響不動產抵押債權的價值。也就是為貸款承作機構、證券化保證機構及證券投資人帶來風險。 借款人決定提前清償及違約與否,除了與借款人自身特性及貸款條件有關外,尚受到隨時間經過而不斷變動的變數所影響,亦即許多影響因子並非維持在貸款起始點的狀態,而是會在貸款存續期間動態調整。進一步影響借款人行為,而這類變數即為時間相依變數(time –dependent variables,或time-varying variables)。因此,本研究利用便於處理時間相依變數的比例危險模型(Proportional Hazard Model)來分析借款人提前清償及違約風險行為,觀察借款人特徵、房屋型態、貸款條件及總體經濟等變數與借款人風險行為的關係。 實證結果顯示,借款人特徵部分的教育程度對提前清償及違約風險影響最為明顯,教育程度越高,越會提前清償,越低則較會違約。房屋型態則透天厝較非透天厝容易提前清償及違約。貸款條件中的貸款金額及貸款成數皆與違約為正相關,亦即利息負擔越重,借款人違約風險升高。總體經濟方面,借款人對利率變動最為敏感,反映利率代表借款人的資金成本,是驅動借款人提前清償及違約的財務動機與誘因。
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Évaluation de l'exposition des personnes aux polluants issus des chauffages d'appoint au pétrole

Carteret, Marion 24 January 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Les poêles à pétrole sont des appareils de chauffage dépourvus d'évacuation des gaz brûlés vers l'extérieur de la pièce. Ils ont été à l'origine de 49 cas d'intoxication aiguë au monoxyde de carbone en France en 2007. Ce type de chauffage est probablement responsable d'intoxications chroniques, mais celles-ci ne sont pas documentées. L'objectif de ce travail est d'une part la quantification en laboratoire des émissions gazeuses de poêles à pétrole récents et d'autre part l'élaboration de protocoles de mesure pour l'étude de la qualité de l'air à l'intérieur de logements du Nord-Pas-de-Calais. Deux types de poêles à pétrole (à mèche et électronique) ont été étudiés dans une enceinte expérimentale instrumentée de 8 m3. Ils émettent principalement NO, NO2, CO, CO2 et des particules. Trois COV préoccupants (formaldéhyde, benzène et 1,3-butadiène) ont également été quantifiés. Les facteurs d'émission dépendent du type de poêle et de la composition du carburant utilisé, en particulier de sa teneur en soufre et en esters méthyliques d'acides gras. L'accumulation de suies au cours de l'utilisation du poêle à mèche s'accompagne d'une forte augmentation des émissions de CO, qui peut conduire à des intoxications chroniques et aiguës. Des mesures de terrain chez six volontaires ont permis de tester nos protocoles dans un milieu plus complexe que celui du laboratoire. Le rôle prépondérant des poêles à pétrole sur les niveaux de pollution dans les logements a été mis en évidence. Ce travail servira de base à une future étude épidémiologique portant sur la santé respiratoire des utilisateurs de tels appareils de chauffage.
490

What should religious education aim to achieve? : an investigation into the purpose of religious education in the public sphere

Hannam, Patricia M. January 2016 (has links)
This thesis is concerned with the question of what religious education should aim to achieve in the public sphere, and from that comes an interest in what is it that the teacher of religious education should aim to do. My enquiry is located, theoretically as well as conceptually, in the sphere of education. It is an educational study into religious education and situated in what can be termed a ‘Continental construction’ of educational research. I identify that since the inception of religious education in public schools in England, persistent assumptions have been made about both religion and education. I show how this has led, in my view, to conceptualisations of religious education which have been, and continue to be, incomplete. The central chapters of my thesis consider first religion and then education. This allows me to introduce my theoretical base, which is especially but not exclusively drawn from the work of Simone Weil and Hannah Arendt. I develop an argument suggesting that by also understanding religion existentially as faith, rather than as only belief or practice, will open new ways of considering the role of religious education in the public sphere. This is alongside an argument I develop with Arendt for education being conceptualised as bringing the child to action rather than to reason. This thesis argues for a broader understanding of religion, and therefore what it means to live a religious life, in religious education than has previously been considered. I bring this broader way of understanding what it means to live a religious life together with my argument for conceptualising education as bringing the child to action. This enables me to make a new proposal for what religious education should aim to achieve in the public sphere.

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