Finansų rinkos yra svarbi ekonomikos dalis, atliekanti vieną svarbiausių ekonominių funkcijų - perskirsto laikinai laisvas lėšas tarp ūkio subjektų ir kartu įtraukia į investavimo procesą skolininkus. Suteikus paskolą, atsiranda rizika, kad skolininkas neįvykdys savo įsipareigojimų. Vienas iš būdų šiai rizikai valdyti yra skolininko patikimumo vertinimas. Paskolų teikimas yra svarbi banko veikla, nes didžiausią įtaką bankų pelningumui per pastaruosius metus turėjo didėjančios paskolų portfelio pajamos: per 2005 m. paskolų suma mln Lt padidėjo 40,93% daugiau lyginant su praėjusiais metais, o per 2006 m. - pasiekė 96,17% lygį nei ankstesniais metais. Didėjančios paskolų portfelio pajamos lėmė 382,3 mln. Lt, arba 48,6 proc., didesnes nei 2005 metais grynąsias palūkanų pajamas, palyginti su 2005 metais, bankai gavo 100,3 mln. Lt, arba 25 proc., daugiau grynųjų paslaugų ir komisinių pajamų, todėl kiekvienam bankui svarbu tinkamai valdyti kredito riziką, kad išvengtų nuostolių dėl blogų paskolų suteikimo. Tai paskatino giliau panagrinėti esamą situaciją, kuri parodo, kad Lietuvos bankai susiduria su kredito rizika ir, kad nuostoliai susidarę dėl blogų paskolų gali skaudžiai atsiliepti skolintojams. Vienas iš kredito rizikos mažinimo būdų yra tinkamas skolininko patikimumo vertinimas, kuris banke turi didelės įtakos banko užimamai rinkos daliai, bei jo pelningumui. Atlikus mokslinės literatūros analizę, buvo pastebėta, kad skolininko patikimumo vertinimo modelių kaip kredito rizikos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / After the bank gives a loan, the risk of not pursuing the liabilities comes, so it needs to be reduced. One way to manage this risk is debtor credibility evaluation. Research object: debtor credibility evaluation. The objektive of this paper is to analyze debtor credibility evaluation and evaluate enterprise “Fausta” evaluation using debtor credibility evaluation models. Debtor credibility evaluation model is made from debtor financial rates and their intake methods. The most analyzed intake methods in science literature are linear discriminant analysis, logit, probit methods; the least used: neural networks, decision trees. In this work debtor credibility evaluation models are analysed, they are classified according to two criterions: qualitative models (descriptive) and quantitative models (estimated). Both classification models can betters evaluation debtor credibility. The following models are used to evaluate enterprise “Fausta” credibility: qualitative models: 6C ir SAPACTRPS and quantitative analysis models: Tafler (1974), Springate (1978), Lis (1999), Shumway (2001), Altman Z modelis (1968), Ohlson (1980), Fulmer (1984). Research of enterprise “Fausta” shows, that bank can give a loan. Qualitative analysis models give qualitative information about debtor’s experience, skills, and purpose of the loan. Quantitative models give more information about financial rates. Biggest disandvantage of qualitative analysis models is human factor. Disandvantage of quantitative... [to full text]

The use of celebrity endorsers is a popular marketing strategy in many countries. Typically, many marketers believe that using celebrities is a viable marketing strategy for attracting customers, increasing market share and improving sales for their market offerings. The celebrity endorsement strategy using local celebrities is increasing in South Africa. Many South African marketers are now using popular local black celebrities in an attempt to attract the prosperous black emerging middle class, known as Black Diamonds. Black Generation Y students offer great promise to marketers in the South African market as their tertiary education is likely to lead to higher future earning potential and subsequent entry into the already prosperous black emerging middle class segment. Given the increased use of local black celebrities and the market potential of the black Generation Y cohort in South Africa, it is important to investigate whether this marketing strategy may be effective when used in this segment. Celebrity endorsement may work effectively if the correct celebrity is chosen to promote a product but may have costly results if an inappropriate celebrity is chosen. Ohanian (1990) developed a scale to facilitate the selection of celebrity endorsers. The scale is based on the source credibility model that includes the source attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise model. This study set out to determine whether the black Generation Y students have positive perceptions of local black celebrity endorsers using the celebrity endorsers‟ credibility scale developed by Ohanian (1990). Furthermore, the scale was validated using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling in order to ascertain whether the scale remains applicable when used in the South African context. A non-probability convenience sample of 880 (440 per institution) black students aged between 18 and 24 years was taken in 2012 from the two registered public higher education institutions in the Gauteng province of South Africa. Following a top-of-the-mind-awareness test, four local black celebrities were identified, namely Connie Ferguson, Black Coffee, DJ Sbu and Zahara. In a second top-of-the-mind-awareness test to determine which product types each celebrity is considered to most suitable to endorse, Connie Ferguson was linked to cosmetics, Black Coffee to hot beverages, DJ Sbu to men’s clothing and Zahara to traditional African clothes and jewellery. The relevant primary data was collected using a self-administered questionnaire that had four versions – one per identified celebrity. Lecturers at the two public HEIs were contacted and asked if they would distribute the questionnaires (four versions) to their students to complete during lecture periods. The questionnaires were hand delivered to the relevant lecturers and those completed were immediately collected. The questionnaire requested respondents to indicate on a six-point Likert scale their perceptions of the four selected celebrities‟ attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise in endorsing their selected product types. In addition, respondents were asked to provide certain demographic data. Findings from the study indicated that black Generation Y students have positive perceptions of the selected local black celebrity endorsers‟ attractiveness, trustworthiness and expertise in endorsing their selected product types. In addition, the results of both the confirmatory factor analysis and the structural equation modelling suggest that the scale developed by Ohanian (1990) to be a valid measure for selecting celebrity endorsers when applied in South Africa. Insights gained from this study will assist both marketing academics and practitioners understand the perceptions of the black Generation Y students towards the use of local black celebrities in product promotions in the South African market. / MCom, Marketing Management, North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2013

The purpose of this thesis is to show how the theory and practice of credibility can bene t statistical modeling. The task was, fundamentally, to derive models that could provide the best estimate of the losses for any given class and also to assess the variability of the losses, both from a class perspective as well as from an aggregate perspective. The model tting and diagnostic tests will be carried out using standard statistical packages. A case study that predicts the number of deaths due to cancer is considered, utilizing data furnished by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Several credibility models are used, including Bayesian, B uhlmann and B uhlmann-Straub approaches, which are useful in a wide range of actuarial applications.

Over the past decade, there has been a tremendous development in e-publishing tools. The Arab world tendency towards electronic publishing has facilitated the prosperity of Arabic e-publishing over the Internet. Likewise, it has enabled the ordinary user to deploy documents, letters, opinions, and ideas with freedom and ease of use. Although freedom of expression should be guaranteed to everyone, it may be used to disseminate false or distorted information. This may lead to the loss of ordinary user's confidence in e-content. However, the user's confidence in e-content will increase if the credibility of the content is emphasized. There are many factors that challenge this task including not only the rapidly growth of Arabic digital publishing, the absent from control over electronic content, and the lack of e-publishing regulations and laws, but also how to develop an efficient framework to confirm the digital content authenticity. Therefore, the need to monitor the credibility of Internet content while maintaining freedom of expression to its users has become an urgent matter of debate. A flexible framework needs to be developed that will overcome these issues and allow for a comprehensible and comfortable content validation environment that would satisfy the end users' desires. This thesis proposes a framework that serves to confirm fundamental text authenticity in Arabic scripts on the Internet. This framework will demonstrate the design and the development of new quotes verification algorithm and the necessary components of framework design, development and implementation based on Service Oriented architecture.

Summary Organizations face risks regardless of the type of industry or government. Historically risks have been undertaken in various processes and coped with differently by society. An appropriate application of risk management is widely acknowledged as one of the most critical aspects of undertaking business activities across all sectors in society, public and private. In order to carry out this activity as part of the crucial actions the organizations implement as part of their culture, many standards have been developed at the international level. These standards provide the groundwork for entities to start implementing these processes and reduce the risk they face with a standardized set of procedures across sectors. Risk assessment faces abundant arguments that lead to doubt the credibility of the standards implemented by different organizations, as not a single method or definition is agreed upon across cultural and sectorial barriers. Therefore, the credibility of the standardized assessment is doubted. This study aims to evaluate the credibility of standardized risk assessments with a focus on the Information Security Risk Assessment Standards, in particular ISO 27005 and NIST 800-30 in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces. The research adapts the frameworks available in literature to evaluate credibility of risk assessments to the international standardized assessment procedure. The standards credibility will be evaluated with different criteria divided in five categories considered applicable to the standardised risk assessment procedure. Also, input from experts in organizations currently employing the standards and academic experts in the field will also be utilized. This study utilizes a qualitative case study approach. The credibility evaluation performance of each international standard is similar; the only category that NIST 800-30 has a significant better performance is the category related to the final Risk Assessment Results (Report). The NIST provides a further step in the process as well as the guidelines and templates in order to develop different parts of the assessment process including the report, which is considered a best practice of a standardised risk assessment. The findings of the research contradict four criteria of the framework found in the literature, related to with what can be learned from past risk assessments, to the wide ranging of the required scope of a risk assessment, the relevance of the disclosure of information on the final risk assessment report related to the composition of the assessment group and finally the procedure for finding consensus among stakeholders. The research question “How credible are standardized risk assessments?” provide a holistic understanding of the credibility of the standards previously mentioned, determining that these provide a solid framework for companies to start assessing the risks in a regulated and standardized procedure. These oversee the problems embedded in the subjectivity of a risk assessment and the ever-changing (intrinsic and extrinsic) aspects of stakeholder behaviour with a lack of a systemic approach to solve these issues, which also include the lack of proper handling of risk uncertainty and the lack of transparency on the final risk assessment report. The study provides a groundwork which can be used in order to develop future research. This study also provides a grounded framework which can be used by entities utilizing the standards in order to reflect their procedures of their risk assessment activities. Keywords: Credibility, risk assessment, risk management, international standards, risk, information security, ISO 27005, NIST 800-30.

Information quality corresponds to the degree of excellence in communicating knowledge or intelligence and encompasses aspects of validity, accuracy, reliability, bias, transparency, and comprehensiveness among others. Professional news, public relations, and user generated content alike all have their own subtly different information quality concerns. With so much recent growth in online video, it is also apparent that more and more consumers will be getting their information from online videos and that understanding the information quality of video becomes paramount for a consumer wanting to make decisions based on it. This dissertation explores the design and evaluation of collaborative video annotation and presentation interfaces as motivated by the desire for better information quality in online video. We designed, built, and evaluated three systems: (1) Audio Puzzler, a puzzle game which as a by-product of play produces highly accurate time-stamped transcripts of video, (2) Videolyzer, a video annotation system designed to aid bloggers and journalists collect, aggregate, and share analyses of information quality of video, and (3) Videolyzer CE, a simplified video annotation presentation which syndicates the knowledge collected using Videolyzer to a wider range of users in order to modulate their perceptions of video information. We contribute to knowledge of different interface methods for collaborative video annotation and to mechanisms for enhancing accuracy of objective metadata such as transcripts as well as subjective notions of information quality of the video itself.

A presente tese é uma pesquisa composta de duas partes. A primeira e principal é constituída do ensaio em economia aplicada denominado “Emprego e investimentos no Polo Naval de Rio Grande”. O estudo analisa a atividade econômica e o emprego no setor naval dos municípios do Polo Naval de Rio Grande, correspondente aos investimentos de produção nos estaleiros, e estima seus efeitos sobre o emprego agregado desses municípios. Documenta diversas características e fatos do emprego naquele setor e procede a uma investigação minuciosa da sua sazonalidade. Importantes correlações deste com o de outros setores selecionados também foram identificadas. Na análise do impacto sobre o emprego agregado, utiliza-se uma especificação diferenciada do modelo diff-in-diff e estima-se um efeito médio ponderado significativo, heterogêneo no tempo e entre os municípios. Já a segunda parte da tese, complementar à primeira, é composta de dois ensaios: um em teoria econômica e outro em economia aplicada. Ambos estão relacionados ao conceito e medida de credibilidade. Em economia monetária o termo credibilidade tem sido interpretado com distintos significados e predicados. Como consequência, as confusões e perda de eficiência acabam retardando o avanço teórico e empírico de questões importantes. O ensaio “Credibilidade: o conceito” busca organizar a interpretação e a medida de credibilidade, principalmente no contexto monetário. Nele propõe-se um conceito abrangente, baseado na linguagem natural e que aninha diversas interpretações, formalizando-o matematicamente na estrutura da Teoria da Probabilidade, na qual também construi-se a medida. No outro ensaio, denominado “Credibilidade: aplicação empírica”, realiza-se uma aplicação do conceito e da medida de credibilidade construídos no anterior. Utilizando dados de um survey de expectativas de inflação (pontuais e probabilísticas) para a economia dos Estados Unidos, estima-se diversas credibilidades para variados horizontes temporais e focos. Emprega-se métodos não-paramétricos para as estimações (spline e kernel), com especificações adaptadas à particularidade dos dados. / The present thesis is a research composed of two parts. The first and main consists of the essay in applied economy called “Emprego e investimentos no Polo Naval de Rio Grande”. The study analyzes the employment in the naval sector of the Rio Grande Naval Pole municipalities, correspondent to the production investments in the shipyards, and estimates their effects on the aggregate employment of these municipalities. It documents various characteristics and facts of employment in that sector and proceeds to a thorough investigation of its seasonality. Moreover, important correlations between this and other selected sectors were identified. In the analysis of impact on aggregate employment we used a differentiated specification of the model diff-in-diff, and estimated a weighted average effect, which is heterogeneous in time and between municipalities. Now, the second part of the thesis, complementary to the first one, is composed of two essays: one in economic theory and the other in applied economics. Both are related to the concept and measure of credibility. In monetary economics the term credibility has been interpreted with different meanings and predicates. Consequently, the confusions and loss of efficiency slow down the theoretical and empirical advancement of important issues. The essay “Credibilidade: o conceito” seeks to organize the interpretation and measurement of credibility, especially in the monetary context. In that essay are proposed a comprehensive concept, based on natural language and that nestles diverse interpretations, formalizing it mathematically in the framework of Probability Theory, in which the measure was also constructed. In the other essay, called “Credibilidade: aplicação empírica”, we apply the concept and measure of credibility built in the previous one. Using data from a survey of inflation expectations (both point and probabilistic) for the US economy, we estimate various credibilities for various time horizons and focus. We use non-parametric methods (spline and kernel) to estimate, with specifications adapted to the particularity of the data.

abstract: Professional environmental scientists are increasingly under pressure to inform and even shape policy. Scientists engage policy effectively when they act within the bounds of objectivity, credibility, and authority, yet significant portions of the scientific community condemn such acts as advocacy. They argue that it is nonobjective, that it risks damaging the credibility of science, and that it is an abuse of authority. This means objectivity, credibility, and authority deserve direct attention before the policy advocacy quagmire can be reasonably understood. I investigate the meaning of objectivity in science and that necessarily brings the roles of values in science into question. This thesis is a sociological study of the roles environmental values play in the decisions of environmental scientists working in the institution of academia. I argue that the gridlocked nature of the environmental policy advocacy debates can be traced to what seems to be a deep tension and perhaps confusion among these scientists. I provide empirical evidence of this tension and confusion through the use of in depth semi-structured interviews among a sampling of academic environmental scientists (AES). I show that there is a struggle for these AES to reconcile their support for environmentalist values and goals with their commitment to scientific objectivity and their concerns about being credible scientists in the academy. Additionally, I supplemented my data collection with environmental sociology and history, plus philosophy and sociology of science literatures. With this, I developed a system for understanding values in science (of which environmental values are a subset) with respect to the limits of my sample and study. This examination of respondent behavior provides support that it is possible for AES to act on their environmental values without compromising their objectivity, credibility, and authority. These scientists were not likely to practice this in conversations with colleagues and policy-makers, but were likely to behave this way with students. The legitimate extension of this behavior is a viable route for continuing to integrate the human and social dimensions of environmental science into its practice, its training, and its relationship with policy. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Environmental Social Science 2012

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explain how privacy concerns impact the relationship between personalization and the factors of advertising value on smartphone advertising. Design/methodology/approach: A explanatory research design with a quantitative approach was conducted, utilizing an online questionnaire with a total of 103 respondents. Conclusion: The result indicates that privacy concerns only moderates the relationship between personalization and entertainment. It was also shown that privacy concerns had a direct impact on irritation Research limitations: The result is not generalizable as a non-probability sample was used, and only respondents between the 18-35 answered the questionnaire. Originality/value: A new perspective of how the moderation of privacy concerns impacts the relationship between personalization and the factors of advertising value. Keywords: Smartphone advertising, advertising value, informativeness, entertainment, irritation, credibility, incentives, privacy concerns. Paper type: Research paper

Hur preferens påverkar behandlingsutfall är ett ämne som diskuteras och undersöks allt mer. Tidigare forskning indikerar en liten till moderat effekt av preferens på behandlingsutfall. Syftet i den här studien var att undersöka preferens, preferensstyrka och de närliggande begreppen förväntan och trovärdighet i relation till behandlingsutfall för två internetbaserade behandlingar för insomni, kognitiv terapi och beteendeterapi. 112 deltagare randomiserades till en av de två behandlingarna eller till att få välja behandling. Signifikant fler deltagare valde kognitiv terapi. Preferens för typ av behandling påverkade inte behandlingsutfallet. Det fanns heller inget samband mellan preferensstyrka och utfall, men deltagarna skattade det som viktigt att få välja. Det fanns en svag signifikant korrelation mellan förväntans- och trovärdighetsskattningarna och utfall. På grund av små och ojämna grupper är det svårt att dra några vidare slutsatser om hur preferens påverkar behandlingsutfall. / Behandling via Internet av Sömnproblem (BIS)