This dissertation is a collection of essays on economic growth in the presence of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers in the credit market. The first chapter considers an endogenous growth model where lenders and capital producing borrowers are asymmetrically informed as to the borrower’s ability to successfully operate an investment project. In contrast to the existing literature, lenders can induce self selection either by rationing a fraction of borrowers, or by using a costly screening technology, or by a mix of the two. The growth rate of the economy and the equilibrium contract’s form are mutually dependent and are determined jointly. It is shown that a decline in the screening cost (representing a more sophisticated financial sector), paradoxically, may lower output growth and that benefit of an advanced financial sector becomes evident only when a threshold level sophistication is crossed. The second chapter draws a connection between financial development and economic growth in a neoclassical growth model. It is shown that at a low level of capital accumulation, lenders separates the borrowers by denying credit to a fraction of borrowers. As capital accumulates, credit market may function more like a modern credit market with less credit rationing and with an increasing number of lenders purchasing information to separate borrowers. The transition from rationing to screening results in a higher capital accumulation path and a higher steady state capital stock. The present chapter also highlights the conditions under which transition from rationing to screening regime will not occur and the economy may become trapped in a steady state with credit rationing and with a low level of capital. The third chapter of the dissertation analyzes the effect of inflation rate on the growth rate of output via its effect on the agents’ behavior in the credit market. It is shown that with inflation rate exceeding a critical level, a sharp fall in the growth rate of output takes place as the incentive to purchase information vanishes and borrowers are exclusively separated by means of credit rationing. This chapter also examines the panel data for a large group of countries for the period 1961-88, and shows that the relationship between the inflation rate and the growth rate of output closely follows the prediction of the theoretical model. / Ph. D.

Cette thèse examine l'impact du développement du marché du crédit sur la croissance économique et essaye d'apporter un éclairage sur certains résultats empiriques controversés relevant de cette littérature. A cette fin, nous investiguons l'impact du développement du marché du crédit à la consommation et celui du marché du crédit à l'investissement sur la croissance. A l'aide d'une extension du modèle d'Aghion et al (2005), nous mettons en évidence que le développement du marché du crédit à la consommation au détriment de celui des crédits à l'investissement affecte défavorablement la croissance économique. Ces constatations sont validées empiriquement sur un échantillon de 27 pays européens.Sur le plan empirique, nous exploitons les techniques des séries temporelles et celles des données de panel afin de dégager les relations de court terme et de long terme entre le développement du marché du crédit et la croissance économique. L'application porte sur un échantillon de 20 pays hétérogènes couvrant la période 1960-2009. Les évidences empiriques valident une relation positive à long terme entre le développement du marché du crédit et la croissance économique alors que la relation de court terme diffère d'un pays à un autre.En utilisant un panel de pays MENA, nous démontrons que le développement du marché du crédit islamique et celui du marché du crédit conventionnel affectent négativement le développement économique de la région. Enfin, nous démontrons que la relation crédit-croissance dans les pays MENA est non linéaire et déterminée par le niveau de développement du secteur des technologies de l'information et de la communication. / This thesis examines the effect of credit market development on economic growth in order to provide explanations for the ambiguous results of empirical studies on this relationship. To this end, we assess the different effects of consumer credit market and entrepreneurial credit market on economic growth. Using an extension of the framework of Aghion et al (2005), we show that the development of the consumer credit market to the detriment of the development of entrepreneurial credit market affects negatively economic growth. We provide empirically validation of these findings on a sample of 27 European countries during the period 1995-2009.Moreover, using both time series techniques and panel data methods, we investigate empirically the short-term and long-term relationships for a sample of 20 heterogeneous countries over the period 1960-2009. Our results confirm a positive long-term relationship between credit market development and economic growth while the short-run relationship differs from one country to another.Furthermore, we inspect the effects of the development of islamic credit market and the development of conventional credit market on economic growth in MENA countries. Applying the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators developed for dynamic panel, we find that both islamic credit market and conventional credit market harmful for economic growth. Examining the non-linear effect of credit market development on economic growth, we show that that economies in Mena region can benefit from credit market development only once a threshold of ICT development is reached.

A crise mundial de 2008 ressaltou um caráter importante desempenhado pelos Bancos Públicos de Desenvolvimento: a sua política anti-cíclica. Como previsto para instituições financeiras públicas na teoria keynesiana, esses orgãos passam a aumentar o número de empréstimos concedidos e injetar mais dinheiro em momentos de queda geral da atividade econômica. No caso do Brasil, uma parte dos autores defende que a atuação contra-cíclica do BNDES foi benéfica para a manutenção da liquidez na economia durante os períodos de turbulência econômica. Já outros autores defendem que a intervenção Estatal pelo BNDES provoca um efeito crowding-out sobre o crédito, inibindo a formação de um mercado de crédito privado de longo prazo. O Objetivo do trabalho é fazer uma análise objetiva da trajetória do BNDES de 1999 a 2012, procurando discernir se a sua atuação ao longo desse período pode ser efetivamente caracterizada, como defende o governo e a própria instituição, como contra-cíclica. Para efetuar esse trabalho usaremos métodos econométricos de séries temporais a partir de dados de série de variáveis macroeconômicas agregadas para uma análise quantitativa do comportamento do BNDES ao longo desse período. Juntamente com isso, será feita também uma analise qualitativa das séries históricas com o objetivo de qualificar e interpretar economicamente tanto os dados, quanto os resultados obtidos. / The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 underscored an important characteristic played by Public Development Banks: its anti-cyclical policy. As regarded for Public Financial Institutions in Keynesian theory, those institutions increase their volume of loans and inject more money in periods of general economic downturn. In Brazil, some authors argue that the counter- cyclical role of BNDES was beneficial to maintain liquidity in the economy during periods of economic turmoil. On another hand, others authors stand that State intervention by BNDES causes a crowding-out effect on credit, inhibiting the formation of a private market for long-term credit. The goal of this dissertation is to write an objective analysis of the trajectory of BNDES from 1999 to 2012, seeking to discern whether its activity during this period can be effectively characterized, like the government and the institution itself arms, as countercyclical. In order to do that, we are going to use time series econometric methods based on data series of aggregate macroeconomic variables for a quantitative analysis of the BNDES\'s behavior over that period. Along with this, we also made a qualitative analysis of the time series in order to qualify and interpret both economic data and the obtained results.

A crise mundial de 2008 ressaltou um caráter importante desempenhado pelos Bancos Públicos de Desenvolvimento: a sua política anti-cíclica. Como previsto para instituições financeiras públicas na teoria keynesiana, esses orgãos passam a aumentar o número de empréstimos concedidos e injetar mais dinheiro em momentos de queda geral da atividade econômica. No caso do Brasil, uma parte dos autores defende que a atuação contra-cíclica do BNDES foi benéfica para a manutenção da liquidez na economia durante os períodos de turbulência econômica. Já outros autores defendem que a intervenção Estatal pelo BNDES provoca um efeito crowding-out sobre o crédito, inibindo a formação de um mercado de crédito privado de longo prazo. O Objetivo do trabalho é fazer uma análise objetiva da trajetória do BNDES de 1999 a 2012, procurando discernir se a sua atuação ao longo desse período pode ser efetivamente caracterizada, como defende o governo e a própria instituição, como contra-cíclica. Para efetuar esse trabalho usaremos métodos econométricos de séries temporais a partir de dados de série de variáveis macroeconômicas agregadas para uma análise quantitativa do comportamento do BNDES ao longo desse período. Juntamente com isso, será feita também uma analise qualitativa das séries históricas com o objetivo de qualificar e interpretar economicamente tanto os dados, quanto os resultados obtidos. / The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 underscored an important characteristic played by Public Development Banks: its anti-cyclical policy. As regarded for Public Financial Institutions in Keynesian theory, those institutions increase their volume of loans and inject more money in periods of general economic downturn. In Brazil, some authors argue that the counter- cyclical role of BNDES was beneficial to maintain liquidity in the economy during periods of economic turmoil. On another hand, others authors stand that State intervention by BNDES causes a crowding-out effect on credit, inhibiting the formation of a private market for long-term credit. The goal of this dissertation is to write an objective analysis of the trajectory of BNDES from 1999 to 2012, seeking to discern whether its activity during this period can be effectively characterized, like the government and the institution itself arms, as countercyclical. In order to do that, we are going to use time series econometric methods based on data series of aggregate macroeconomic variables for a quantitative analysis of the BNDES\'s behavior over that period. Along with this, we also made a qualitative analysis of the time series in order to qualify and interpret both economic data and the obtained results.

An efficient property and credit market can be used by a government of a country to empower its citizens to achieve sustainable development. To improve the property and credit market government needs to ensure that its land records contain information that is beneficial to the actors in both the property and credit market. Studies have shown that land records in Uganda experience problems which have affected the property and credit market. The Government of Uganda has had attempts to solve these problems and one of the recent efforts include computerization of the land records. However the aspect of the information content and its adequacy for the property and credit markets has not attracted much attention.  Therefore this research investigated the content of the real property register in relation to the requirement of the property and credit market in Uganda. The main aim of the research was to develop a model of a real property register that supports both the property and credit market in Uganda. The research established the needs of the different actors in the property and credit market. Based on the analysis of the needs of the property and credit market in Uganda, the gaps in the information provided by the current real property register were identified. The research methods included literature review, interviews, and questionnaires. Furthermore the registers were inspected at the different land offices. A conceptual model of a real property register was designed based on the information needs of actors and gaps in the current real property register.  The study revealed that the basic information required by the property and credit market included information on size of the property, location, occupancy rights, easements, regulations among others. Although things such as location and size are there, easements, occupancy rights and public restrictions are not there. This has impacted negatively on the property and credit market by contributing to land speculation, insecure rights, high transaction costs, prolonged transactions, high information costs, principle agent problems, land grabbing, land conflicts among others.   The study recommended that the current register should be remodelled to include the vital information such as easements, occupancy rights and public regulation that is needed by actors in the property and credit market. The register should be dynamic and create incentives to have people register the land. / Effektiva fastighets- och kreditmarknader kan användas av en regering i ett land för att stödja sina medborgare att uppnå en hållbar utveckling. För att förbättra fastighet- och kreditmarknaderna måste regeringen se till att landets fastighetsregister innehåller information som är till nytta för aktörerna i både fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna. Studier har visat att det befintliga fastighetsregistret i Uganda har brister som inverkar negativt på fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna. Ugandas regering har försök att lösa dessa problem och en av de senaste insatserna inkluderar digitalisering av fastighetsregistret. Däremot har frågan om registrets informationsinnehåll, och dess ändamålsenlighet för fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna, inte rönt någon större uppmärksamhet. Av dessa skäl har detta forskningsprojekt närmare undersökt informationsinnehållet i fastighetsregistret i relation till de behov som fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna i Uganda uppvisar. Det främsta syftet med forskningen var att utveckla en modell för ett fastighetsregister som kan gynna både fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna i Uganda. Forskningen inventerade inledningsvis behoven hos de olika aktörerna inom fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna. Baserat på en analys av dessa behov identifierades brister och svagheter i den information som tillhandahålls av det nuvarande fastighetsregistret. Forskningsmetoden innefattade litteraturstudier, intervjuer och enkäter. Därutöver granskades fastighetsregistret på plats vid olika registerförande kontor. En konceptuell modell av ett utvecklat fastighetsregister skapades utifrån de informationsbehov hos aktörerna och brister i nuvarande fastighetsregistret som identifierats. Studien visade att den grundläggande information som behövs för fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna innefattar bl.a. information om fastighetens area, lokalisering, olika rättigheter samt markanvändningsplaner. Information om area och lokalisering finns idag, men rättigheter och markanvändningsplaner saknas. Detta har inverkat negativt på fastighets- och kreditmarknaderna genom att bl.a. bidra till markspekulation, otrygga rättigheter, höga transaktions- och informations-kostnader, principal-agent-problem och markkonflikter. Studien rekommenderar att nuvarande registret bör utvecklas och struktureras för att kompletteras med viktig information såsom rättigheter och markanvändnings-regleringar vilket efterfrågas av marknadsaktörerna. Registret bör vidare vara dynamiskt och skapa incitament för att underlätta registrering av mark. / <p>QC 20160316</p>

The central bank of Sweden, the Riksbank, has for a long time controlled the lending to thepublic by the business banks. To control the credit market the Riksbank set up severalregulations, one of the most prominent a limit of how much the business banks could be lendingout to the public. In November 1985 the limit of lending was deregulated. How did thisderegulation affect the lending and the business banks? Why was this deregulation done and howcan we explain this in context to the economy? To answer these questions I’ve used data fromthe official statistics of Sweden and from the Riksbank to make figures. My result shows that thelending to the public bloomed after 1985 and that the business banks probably started borrowingmoney from abroad to finance the lending.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / The literature on real business cycles finds that one reason why emerging economies are more volatile than developed small open economies is that they face greater financial frictions. Indeed, according to several measures of financial depth and access, financial systems in emerging countries are on average less developed than those in developed small open economies. Despite the lag in financial development, private credit, particularly unsecured credit to households, has been steadily increasing during the last two decades in emerging countries in Latin America. During this period of rising credit, various countries in the region observed an increase in the size of their middle income class population and the emergence of the vendor financing channel in their consumption credit market. Estimates by the World Bank suggest that the share of middle class households increased from 20.9 % in 1995 to 40.7 % in 2010. In addition, the share of poor households was approximately halved and reached 23.4 % at the end of this 15 year period. This phenomenon not only increased credit demand but also motivated the entry of new suppliers in the consumer credit market in countries like Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Brazil. In spite of a significant decline in unemployment in recent years, the lack of formal employment and poor credit history were still impeding many individuals from gaining access to consumer finance from traditional financial institutions. In order to enable new middle class shoppers access items typically offered by large retail stores, the retailers themselves started offering credit. In this dissertation, I study the relationship between middle class size, unsecured credit markets and aggregate consumption volatility in emerging countries. In the first chapter of this thesis, we examine the link between middle class size and consumption growth volatility using a sample of middle income countries. In the second chapter, we study the effect of an expansion of the middle class on vendor financing incentives and unsecured credit supply on its extensive margin. In the third chapter, I study business cycle implications of a reduction in the share of financially excluded households in an emerging economy. In the first chapter, I empirically examine the effect of middle income class size on consumption growth volatility in emerging countries. Using a panel data of middle income countries, I find that a larger middle class size tends to increase aggregate consumption growth volatility, particularly at lower levels of financial system depth. Financial development plays a significant role in determining the sign of the marginal effect of middle class size on aggregate volatility. Unlike emerging countries, the effect of the size of the middle class and the role of financial development on consumption volatility in developed countries is ambiguous. The key message of this analysis is that as more households escape poverty thresholds and reach the middle income class status in developing and emerging economies, it becomes more important to deepen financial systems from the perspective of aggregate consumption volatility. In the second chapter, I explore through the lens of a theoretical model, potential reasons triggering an increase in credit supplied by the non traditional financial sector, i.e vendors, at the extensive margin. I find that a reduction in the average risk of default and an increase in the market size of credit customers raise vendor financing incentives. This model rationalizes the observation that the improvement of economic conditions of the low-income and financially constrained households potentially led to increased credit supply by vendors in several countries of Latin America. In the third chapter, I study business cycle implications of a decline in household financial exclusion in a dynamic general equilibrium model suitable for emerging economies. Using Mexico as a case study, I estimate the model with Bayesian methods for the period 1995 to 2014. Standard measures of predictive accuracy suggest that the extended business cycle model with limited credit market participation outperforms a model with zero financial exclusion. The results of the estimation suggest that a rise in credit market participation in an emerging economy increases aggregate volatility of key macroeconomic aggregates, and that financial frictions play a key role in this relationship. I confirm this prediction by re-estimating the model for Mexico after splitting the sample into two non- overlapping decades. A key implication derived in this chapter is that a reduction of financial exclusion within an emerging country may lead to higher consumption growth volatility and trade balance volatility, and that fewer financial frictions dampen the marginal effect. As household financial access increases in these countries, a greater need for improving broad financial development measures arises.

A tese investiga três dimensões dos efeitos da adoção mandatória do IFRS para os mercados de crédito no Brasil: 1) para a relevância da informação contábil na perspectiva dos credores; 2) para os termos contratuais de crédito bancário e títulos de dívida; e 3) para a propensão das empresas locais captarem recursos nos mercados de crédito internacionais. As análises contemplam amostras de aproximadamente 6.500 ratings atribuídos por instituições financeiras e agências de risco (Fitch, Standard & Poors e Moody\'s) e 137.000 contratos de crédito bancário e títulos de dívida (debêntures) detidos por 122 grupos econômicos durante o período de 2005 a 2014. A abordagem empírica é construída a partir de um modelo de interação, comparando-se os períodos pré e pós-IFRS e confrontando grupos de adotantes mandatórios e voluntários. Utilizando-se controles relacionados às características do contrato (loan-specific), da empresa (firm-specific) e da instituição financeira concedente do crédito (lender-specific) e a partir de estimações por MQO, MQ2E e regressão logística, os resultados sugerem que os impactos da adoção do IFRS para a relação contratual de crédito exibem considerável heterogeneidade entre as empresas, dependem do tipo de mercado avaliado (crédito bancário x títulos de dívida) e são condicionais aos incentivos das empresas promoverem efetiva melhora na qualidade da informação contábil. Especificamente, a tese encontra que a adoção mandatória do IFRS contribuiu para: (i) aumentar a habilidade dos números contábeis explicarem o rating de crédito das empresas; (ii) reduzir a dispersão das notas de crédito atribuídas por diferentes instituições financeiras; (iii) reduzir o custo do crédito, alongar os prazos de vencimento, aumentar os montantes concedidos e reduzir a probabilidade de exigência de garantia; e (iv) aumentar a propensão das empresas locais captarem recursos nos mercados internacionais. Entretanto, as evidências sugerem que tais efeitos são exclusivos para entidades que possuem incentivos para prover informação contábil de qualidade, suportando que a existência de benefícios econômicos não depende meramente da publicação dos demonstrativos no padrão global, mas sim está condicionada à maneira como as empresas efetivamente adotam os pronunciamentos. Análises adicionais indicam que as consequências econômicas para o mercado de crédito tendem a ser maiores para os títulos de dívida em relação ao crédito bancário e para empresas com piores notas de crédito e maiores reconciliações iniciais entre o GAAP doméstico e o IFRS. Testes de robustez relacionados a variações na especificação da amostra e reduções nas janelas de evento reforçam a validade dos modelos e ajudam a suprimir potenciais preocupações de que os resultados tenham sido provocados por efeitos concorrentes. O estudo reforça a importância do papel informacional das demonstrações financeiras para os contratos de crédito e contrapõe evidências na literatura de que consequências positivas associadas ao IFRS são exclusivas para países que apresentam determinadas características institucionais / The thesis investigates three dimensions of the effects of mandatory IFRS adoption for credit markets in Brazil: 1) to the credit relevance of accounting information; 2) to the contractual terms of bank loans and debt securities; and 3) to the propensity of local firms to raise funds in international credit markets. The analyzes include samples of approximately 6,500 ratings assigned by financial institutions and rating agencies (Fitch, Standard & Poor\'s and Moody\'s) and 137,000 bank loans and debt securities (debentures) contracts held by 122 conglomerates during the 2005-2014 period. The empirical approach is built on an interaction model, comparing the pre- and post-IFRS adopters and confronting mandatory and voluntary groups. After controlling for loan-, firm- and lender-specific determinants of loan terms and using OLS, 2SLS and logistic regression estimates, the results suggest the impact of IFRS adoption for credit markets exhibit considerable heterogeneity between companies, depend on the assessed market (bank loans x debt securities) and are conditional to the companies incentives to effectively improve accounting quality. Specifically, the study finds that the mandatory IFRS adoption has contributed to: (i) increase the ability of accounting numbers to explain credit ratings; (ii) reduce the dispersion of credit scores attributed by different financial institutions; (iii) reduce the cost of credit, lengthen maturities, increase the amounts raised and reduce the likelihood of collateral requirement; and (iv) increase the propensity of local firms to raise funds in international credit markets. However, evidence suggests that these effects are unique to firms that have incentives to increase the quality of accounting information, supporting the existence of economic benefits does not merely depend on the publication of financial statements in the global accounting standard, but is conditional on how companies effectively adopt the pronouncements. Further analyzes indicate that the economic consequences for the credit market tend to be higher for debt securities relative to bank loans and for companies with poorer credit ratings and larger fist-time IFRS reconciliations. Robustness tests related to variations in the specification of the sample and reductions in the event of windows reinforce the validity of the models and help mitigate potential concerns that the results were caused by competing effects. The study reinforces the importance of the informational role of financial statements for lending agreements and contrasts evidence in the literature that positive consequences associated with IFRS are unique to countries with certain institutional features.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar as mudanças na estrutura das cláusulas restritivas presentes nos contratos de dívida das empresas emissoras de debêntures, em função da adoção das Normas Internacionais de Contabilidade (IFRS) no Brasil. Adicionalmente busca-se entender quais os desdobramentos econômicos desta adoção em variáveis destes contratos e nos setores que se utilizam da captação de recursos de terceiros. Para isso, foram investigados contratos de dívida de empresas de capital aberto e fechado que emitiram debêntures entre os anos de 2006 a 2008 e 2011 a 2014 para se analisar os períodos antes e depois da adoção das IFRS. Com a coleta de dados realizada a partir dos contratos foi formada uma base de dados com 126 contratos sendo 78 anteriores à adoção das IFRS e 48 posteriores ao evento. A aplicação das técnicas estatísticas de associação, análise de correspondência e análise de correspondência múltipla demonstrou forte associação entre um maior número de covenants e os períodos posteriores à adoção das normas internacionais de contabilidade. Entretanto este crescimento foi constatado apenas para cláusulas restritivas de segurança e não contábeis, excluindo as cláusulas com números contábeis. Resultados adicionais mostraram que setores mais propensos a fomento governamental como infraestrutura, logística e construção apresentam maior número de cláusulas restritivas, o que indica maior receio de fornecedores de capital. Variáveis adicionais dos contratos como prazo de vencimento do contrato e presença de órgãos reguladores não apresentaram resultados significativos. Posto isso, a tese apresenta resultados de que a implantação das normas internacionais de contabilidade modificou a estrutura dos contratos de dívida, com aumento de cláusulas de segurança e não contábeis e perda proporcional de relevância dos números contábeis nestes contratos. Os achados estão em linha com pesquisas internacionais recentes que identificaram redução da utilização da informação contábil nos mercados de crédito, muito por conta do receio por parte dos credores dos critérios de julgamento permitidos pelas normas internacionais de contabilidade. / This study aims to analyze the changes in the structure of the restrictive clauses in debt agreements of the companies issuing debentures due to the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Brazil. Additionally we seek to understand what are the economic consequences of this adoption on variables and sectors of such contracts that use resources from third parties. To reach this goal we investigated debt contracts of public and private companies and that issued debentures between the years 2006-2008 and 2011-2014 to analyze the periods before and after the adoption of IFRS. With data collection performed from contract was formed a database with 126 contracts being 78 prior to adoption of IFRS and 48 post-event. The application of the statistical techniques correspondence analysis and multiple correspondence analysis showed a strong association between a larger number of covenants and the periods after the adoption of international accounting standards. However this growth was observed only for restrictive covenants security and non-accounting, excluding clauses with accounting numbers. Additional results showed that the most likely sectors to government promotion such as infrastructure, logistics and construction with highest number of restrictive clauses which indicates greater fears of capital providers. Additional variables of contracts as contract maturity and presence of regulators were not significant. That said, the thesis presents results of the implementation of international accounting standards changed the structure of the debt contracts, an increase of security non-accounting covenants and a proportional loss of relevance of accounting numbers in these contracts. The findings are in line with recent international research that identified reduction in the use of accounting information in the credit markets, much due to the fear by creditors of the judging criteria allowed by international accounting standards.

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to banking, credit markets and financial stability.    Paper [I] presents a credit market model and finds, using an agent based modeling approach, that credit crunches have a tendency to occur; even when credit markets are almost entirely transparent in the absence of external shocks. We find evidence supporting the asset deterioration hypothesis and results that emphasize the importance of accurate firm quality estimates. In addition, we find that an increase in the debt’s time to maturity, homogenous expected default rates and a conservative lending approach, reduces the probability of a credit crunch. Thus, our results suggest some up till now partially overlooked components contributing to the financial stability of an economy.     Paper [II] derives an econometric disequilibrium model for time series data. This is done by error correcting the supply of some good. The model separates between a continuously clearing market and a clearing market in the long-run such that we are able to obtain a novel test of clearing markets. We apply the model to the Swedish market for short-term business loans, and find that this market is characterized by a long-run nonmarket clearing equilibrium.    Paper [III] studies the risk-return profile of centralized and decentralized banks. We address the conditions that favor a particular lending regime while acknowledging the effects on lending and returns caused by the course of the business cycle. To analyze these issues, we develop a model which incorporates two stylized facts; (i) banks in which lendingdecisions are decentralized tend to have a lower cost associated with screening potential borrowers and (ii) decentralized decision-making may generate inefficient outcomes because of lack of coordination. Simulations are used to compare the two banking regimes. Among the results, it is found that even though a bank group where decisions are decentralizedmay end up with a portfolio of loans which is (relatively) poorly diversified between regions, the ability to effectively screen potential borrowers may nevertheless give a decentralized bank a lower overall risk in the lending portfolio than when decisions are centralized.    In Paper [IV], we argue that the practice used in the valuation of a portfolio of assets is important for the calculation of the Value at Risk. In particular, a seller seeking to liquidate a large portfolio may not face horizontal demand curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall measures and in an empirical illustration, we compare it to a competing approach. We find substantial differences.