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Análise geográfica computadorizada na estimativa de qualidade ambiental para mamíferos de médio e grande porte / Computerized geographic analysis on habitat quality estimation for medium and large-sized mammalsMartins, Iris Amati 22 September 2009 (has links)
A intensa degradação do bioma cerrado tem tido grandes conseqüências na disponibilidade de habitats de boa qualidade para muitos animais e a busca por métodos rápidos e confiáveis que localizem áreas de valor ecológico para diferentes grupos de animais tem despertado grande interesse. A análise geográfica computadorizada foi utilizada como ferramenta para caracterização da heterogeneidade (diversos graus de qualidade e tipo de cobertura fitofisionômica) dos habitats existentes no remanescente estudado, buscando fornecer informações que pudessem levar ao entendimento de como as espécies de mamíferos de médio e grande porte utilizam estes habitats alterados, além de fornecer informações que pudessem ser utilizadas para o delineamento da amostragem. Desta forma, a primeira etapa foi a elaboração de uma base cartográfica que produziu dois mapas de caracterização ambiental, um mapa geral e outro da mata ripária. O primeiro foi utilizado para a realização de uma análise preliminar da qualidade dos habitats e distribuição das armadilhas fotográficas, transecções e canteiros de pegadas, buscando capturar toda a heterogeneidade existente no remanescente. Desta forma, houve a sistematização das amostragens. A utilização destes métodos permitiu a detecção de 22 espécies de mamíferos de médio e grande porte em 28 dias de amostragem, quando a curva acumulativa de espécies (Sobs Mao Tau) atingiu sua assíntota. O teste do qui quadrado permitiu afirmar que houve influência das fitofisionomias na distribuição das espécies observadas. Desta forma, partindo-se do pressuposto de que a heterogeneidade de habitats certamente irá influir na diversidade de recursos alimentares, admitiu-se que a grande riqueza obtida no remanescente estudado esteja principalmente relacionada à disponibilidade de recursos alimentares. A segunda etapa da análise espacial foi a elaboração de um modelo de tomada de decisão que espacializou as informações relacionadas à biologia e ecologia de algumas espécies de mamíferos. O modelo desenvolvido permitiu produzir novas informações importantes em relação à qualidade dos habitats e o uso dos mesmos pelas espécies-alvo, por meio da sobreposição dos dados de detecção nos Mapas de Oportunidades gerados (validação do modelo de tomada de decisão desenvolvido). O uso destes habitats também foi testado por meio do qui quadrado e o resultado obtido permitiu afirmar que houve a influência da qualidade do habitat na distribuição das espécies neste estudo. Esta informação enfatiza que o modelo de tomada de decisão aplicado pode ser uma ferramenta muito importante em estudos relacionados ao uso de habitats, alterados ou intactos, por espécies de mamíferos de médio e grande porte, em função de suas necessidades ambientais, ou seja, cada espécie possui requerimentos ambientais específicos e que devem ser levados em consideração para o desenvolvimento de qualquer plano de manejo e conservação em um determinado local. / The intense degradation of the Cerrado biome has had great consequences over the habitat quality available for many animals. The search for rapid and reliable methods to allocate areas with ecological values for different groups of animals has arising great interest now-a-days. The developed methodology at the present work aim to determine the variation of the habitat quality within a São Paulo State cerrado remnant (2,098ha), using remote sensing and geoprocessing techniques. According to the environmental needs of each species, were selected abiotic and biotic criteria that could be inserted on a decision making model in order to influence habitat quality and infer seven mammals species occurrence: Myrmecophaga tridactyla - great anteater, Tapirus terrestris - tapir, Tayassu tajacu - collared peccary, Mazama americana - red brocket deer, Eira barbara tayra, Puma concolor puma and Leopardus pardalis ocelot. Those criteria were evaluated by experts, who assign specific weights according to species environmental needs. Thus, seven Opportunity Maps were developed through a Multi Criteria Evaluation, which were validated in the field (trace sensing and cam trapping). The model used showed very robust in predicting coherently the habitat quality using the occurrence of the target species. The most detections were obtained in favorable areas (40%), followed by very favorable areas (20%), regular areas (18%), unfavorable areas (15%) and very unfavorable areas (6%). The most species were detected more often in favorable areas and less often in very unfavorable areas, excepted T. terrestris and T. tajacu, which were detected in very favorable areas.
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Avaliação de modelo de tomada de decisão para escolha de sistema de tratamento de esgoto sanitário / Evaluation of decision-making model to choice system for treatment of sewageLeoneti, Alexandre Bevilacqua 17 March 2009 (has links)
Uma solução para a preservação das águas é o investimento em saneamento e no tratamento do esgoto sanitário, que é realizado por meio de estações de tratamento de esgoto. Todavia, a escolha do sistema de tratamento a ser implantado em um município deve atender aos requisitos técnicos, ambientais, sociais e econômicos do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi validar e avaliar a aplicabilidade de um modelo de tomada de decisão para escolha de sistema de tratamento de esgoto sanitário de menor custo econômico desenvolvido por Oliveira (2004). Este modelo elabora o dimensionamento de oito sistemas de tratamento e, a partir desses dados, faz a estimativa do custo de implantação, manutenção e operação de cada sistema. Para esta avaliação, foram realizadas entrevistas em órgãos relacionados a saneamento no Brasil, bem como com tomadores de decisão e especialistas em saneamento, a fim de coletar os dados necessários para aplicação de testes com o modelo. No total, foram coletados dados de 61 projetos de estações de tratamento de esgoto, os quais foram utilizados nos testes realizados. Durante a avaliação do modelo, foram utilizadas técnicas como simulação, análise hierárquica de processos e equilíbrio de Nash, além de serem realizados ajustes nos custos do modelo, nas variáveis utilizadas, nos sistemas de tratamento, dentre outras, totalizando 12 novas versões até a final, denominada ETEX-FEARP. Com base nas análises realizadas neste trabalho, considera-se o modelo adequado para proporcionar uma visão global no planejamento dos investimentos, bem como para estudos de concepções de estações de tratamento, auxiliando o tomador de decisão na escolha do sistema, com base em critérios econômicos, ambientais e técnicos. / A solution for the preservation of the water is the investment in sanitation and in the treatment of sanitary sewer, which is accomplished through sewer treatment stations. However, the choice of the treatment system to be implanted in a municipal district should meet its technical, environmental, social and economical requirements. The main objective of this research was to validate and to evaluate the applicability of a decision making model to choose the system of sanitary sewer treatment with the lowest economical cost developed by Oliveira (2004). This model elaborates the sizing of eight treatment systems, and then it estimates the implantation cost, maintenance and operation of each system. For this evaluation, interviews were performed in institutions related to sanitation in Brazil, as well as with decision makers and specialists in sanitation, in order to collect the necessary data for application of tests with the model. In the total, data from 61 projects of sewer treatment stations were collected, which were used in the accomplished tests. During the evaluation of the model, techniques such as simulation, hierarchical analysis of processes and Nash equilibrium were used. In addition, changes have been made in the costs of the model, in the used variables, in the treatment systems, among others, totaling 12 new versions, and the final version, was denominated \"ETEX-FEARP\". Based on the analysis done in this research, the model is considered appropriate to provide a global vision in the planning of the investments, as well as for studies of conceptions of treatment stations, helping the decision maker choose the system, based on economical, environmental and technical criteria.
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Análise geográfica computadorizada na estimativa de qualidade ambiental para mamíferos de médio e grande porte / Computerized geographic analysis on habitat quality estimation for medium and large-sized mammalsIris Amati Martins 22 September 2009 (has links)
A intensa degradação do bioma cerrado tem tido grandes conseqüências na disponibilidade de habitats de boa qualidade para muitos animais e a busca por métodos rápidos e confiáveis que localizem áreas de valor ecológico para diferentes grupos de animais tem despertado grande interesse. A análise geográfica computadorizada foi utilizada como ferramenta para caracterização da heterogeneidade (diversos graus de qualidade e tipo de cobertura fitofisionômica) dos habitats existentes no remanescente estudado, buscando fornecer informações que pudessem levar ao entendimento de como as espécies de mamíferos de médio e grande porte utilizam estes habitats alterados, além de fornecer informações que pudessem ser utilizadas para o delineamento da amostragem. Desta forma, a primeira etapa foi a elaboração de uma base cartográfica que produziu dois mapas de caracterização ambiental, um mapa geral e outro da mata ripária. O primeiro foi utilizado para a realização de uma análise preliminar da qualidade dos habitats e distribuição das armadilhas fotográficas, transecções e canteiros de pegadas, buscando capturar toda a heterogeneidade existente no remanescente. Desta forma, houve a sistematização das amostragens. A utilização destes métodos permitiu a detecção de 22 espécies de mamíferos de médio e grande porte em 28 dias de amostragem, quando a curva acumulativa de espécies (Sobs Mao Tau) atingiu sua assíntota. O teste do qui quadrado permitiu afirmar que houve influência das fitofisionomias na distribuição das espécies observadas. Desta forma, partindo-se do pressuposto de que a heterogeneidade de habitats certamente irá influir na diversidade de recursos alimentares, admitiu-se que a grande riqueza obtida no remanescente estudado esteja principalmente relacionada à disponibilidade de recursos alimentares. A segunda etapa da análise espacial foi a elaboração de um modelo de tomada de decisão que espacializou as informações relacionadas à biologia e ecologia de algumas espécies de mamíferos. O modelo desenvolvido permitiu produzir novas informações importantes em relação à qualidade dos habitats e o uso dos mesmos pelas espécies-alvo, por meio da sobreposição dos dados de detecção nos Mapas de Oportunidades gerados (validação do modelo de tomada de decisão desenvolvido). O uso destes habitats também foi testado por meio do qui quadrado e o resultado obtido permitiu afirmar que houve a influência da qualidade do habitat na distribuição das espécies neste estudo. Esta informação enfatiza que o modelo de tomada de decisão aplicado pode ser uma ferramenta muito importante em estudos relacionados ao uso de habitats, alterados ou intactos, por espécies de mamíferos de médio e grande porte, em função de suas necessidades ambientais, ou seja, cada espécie possui requerimentos ambientais específicos e que devem ser levados em consideração para o desenvolvimento de qualquer plano de manejo e conservação em um determinado local. / The intense degradation of the Cerrado biome has had great consequences over the habitat quality available for many animals. The search for rapid and reliable methods to allocate areas with ecological values for different groups of animals has arising great interest now-a-days. The developed methodology at the present work aim to determine the variation of the habitat quality within a São Paulo State cerrado remnant (2,098ha), using remote sensing and geoprocessing techniques. According to the environmental needs of each species, were selected abiotic and biotic criteria that could be inserted on a decision making model in order to influence habitat quality and infer seven mammals species occurrence: Myrmecophaga tridactyla - great anteater, Tapirus terrestris - tapir, Tayassu tajacu - collared peccary, Mazama americana - red brocket deer, Eira barbara tayra, Puma concolor puma and Leopardus pardalis ocelot. Those criteria were evaluated by experts, who assign specific weights according to species environmental needs. Thus, seven Opportunity Maps were developed through a Multi Criteria Evaluation, which were validated in the field (trace sensing and cam trapping). The model used showed very robust in predicting coherently the habitat quality using the occurrence of the target species. The most detections were obtained in favorable areas (40%), followed by very favorable areas (20%), regular areas (18%), unfavorable areas (15%) and very unfavorable areas (6%). The most species were detected more often in favorable areas and less often in very unfavorable areas, excepted T. terrestris and T. tajacu, which were detected in very favorable areas.
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俄羅斯與中國對伊朗核問題立場之比較研究 / A Comparative Study on Russian and Chinese Positions on the Iranian Nuclear Issue謝炘如 Unknown Date (has links)
本文題為俄羅斯與中國對伊朗核問題立場之比較研究。本文藉由「外交決策」理論,以及「政治系統論」和「層次分析法」,研究從俄羅斯的外交決策模式、國內外因素,探究俄羅斯對伊朗核問題之立場,以及,從中國的外交決策模式、國內外因素,探究中國對伊朗核問題之立場。最後,再比較俄羅斯與中國的外交決策模式、國內外因素,以及兩國的政策產出-伊朗核問題之立場,進行比較分析俄中對伊朗核問題立場和政策的異同之處為本文之研究目的。
在國際處理伊朗核問題的進程中,俄羅斯、中國對於伊朗核問題的立場可謂大致相同,他們皆主張「以外交手段進行和平談判」的立場。然而,不同的是俄中在決策過程中的背後動機與各自盤算的國家利益。俄羅斯採取「平衡政策」(balancing policy),以伊朗為談判籌碼,換取美國釋出更多利多;而中國則是採取「拖延與削弱策略」(delay-and-weaken strategy),以維護在伊朗的各項利益。 / This paper is a comparative study about the positon of Russia and China on the Iranian nuclear issue. We use the approach of “foreign policy decision making”, “political system theory” and “analytic hierarchy process” to study the formation of Russian and China’s foreign policy decision making, the factors that affect the policy decision making process, the stand of Russia and China toward the Iran’s nuclear issue, and finally, we compare the defference of those two countries.
On the issue of Iran’s nuclear, Russia and China take approximately the same attitude.Both of them advocate that every one should take peace negotiations instead of sanctions. The differences between Russian and China’s foreign policy decision making is that Russia trys to use the balancing policy, and takes advantage of Iran’s nuclear issue, making the U.S. to release more benefits for Russia,while China takes the delay-and-weaken strategy, making effort to protect their benefits in Iran.
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Approche structurale de la compétence à s’orienter : proposition d’un modèle général, hiérarchique, dynamique et multivarié. / A structural approach to career self-determination : a dynamic, hierarchical and multi-variable model.Dulu, Olivier 08 December 2014 (has links)
Quelle est la structure décisionnelle de la compétence à s’orienter ? Après avoir analysé les modèles existants et parcouru plusieurs recherches étudiant l’impact de différentes variables, nous avons proposé un modèle général qui pourrait se baser à la fois sur des modèles structuraux différenciant des axes d’internalité et d’externalité, sur des modèles hiérarchiques et sur des modèles dynamiques. La validation de ce modèle repose sur deux études empiriques distinctes. Une première expérimentation avec groupe témoin a été réalisée auprès de 665 étudiants issus de trois filières universitaires (psychologie, sciences et lettres) et a permis d’observer la mobilité de la maturité de carrière au cours d’une action d’orientation. La seconde, menée auprès de 322 étudiants en psychologie et en sciences, a montré l’interaction de nombreuses variables internes, comme le locus de contrôle, le sentiment d’efficacité personnelle, l’autonomie, l’anxiété décisionnelle et la maturité de carrière, cette dernière pouvant s’inscrire comme une composante d’un modèle général, hiérarchique, dynamique et multivarié de la compétence à s’orienter. Une recherche complémentaire auprès de 186 étudiants a montré l’aspect à la fois modérateur et conflictuel des valeurs d’ouverture au changement (autonomie et stimulation) et de continuité (tradition et conformité) à l’œuvre lors du processus décisionnel. / What is the decision-making structure that underpins career self-determination? Having examined existing models and various studies of the impact of their respective variables, we propose a general model which is inspired by three others: a structural model differentiating between internal and external axes, a hierarchical model and a dynamic model. In order to confirm this hypothesis, we have conducted two distinct experiments. The first of these, with a sample group of 665 students from three university backgrounds (psychology, general science and humanities), enabled us to observe the changing dynamics of career maturity during a career guidance activity. The second experiment, carried out with 322 psychology and science students, showed the interaction of numerous internal personal characteristics, such as the locus of control, the feeling of self-efficacy, autonomy, decision stress and career maturity. As opposed to earlier general preconceptions, we suggest that this last characteristic (career maturity) is just one of the components of a general self-determination model based on hierarchy, dynamics and multiple variables. Subsequent research, carried out with 186 students, has shown the moderating and conflictual aspects of the values (autonomy and stimulation) adopted by persons open to change and the values (tradition and conformity) of persons preferring to continue without change within the decision process.
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Approche structurale de la compétence à s’orienter : proposition d’un modèle général, hiérarchique, dynamique et multivarié. / A structural approach to career self-determination : a dynamic, hierarchical and multi-variable model.Dulu, Olivier 08 December 2014 (has links)
Quelle est la structure décisionnelle de la compétence à s’orienter ? Après avoir analysé les modèles existants et parcouru plusieurs recherches étudiant l’impact de différentes variables, nous avons proposé un modèle général qui pourrait se baser à la fois sur des modèles structuraux différenciant des axes d’internalité et d’externalité, sur des modèles hiérarchiques et sur des modèles dynamiques. La validation de ce modèle repose sur deux études empiriques distinctes. Une première expérimentation avec groupe témoin a été réalisée auprès de 665 étudiants issus de trois filières universitaires (psychologie, sciences et lettres) et a permis d’observer la mobilité de la maturité de carrière au cours d’une action d’orientation. La seconde, menée auprès de 322 étudiants en psychologie et en sciences, a montré l’interaction de nombreuses variables internes, comme le locus de contrôle, le sentiment d’efficacité personnelle, l’autonomie, l’anxiété décisionnelle et la maturité de carrière, cette dernière pouvant s’inscrire comme une composante d’un modèle général, hiérarchique, dynamique et multivarié de la compétence à s’orienter. Une recherche complémentaire auprès de 186 étudiants a montré l’aspect à la fois modérateur et conflictuel des valeurs d’ouverture au changement (autonomie et stimulation) et de continuité (tradition et conformité) à l’œuvre lors du processus décisionnel. / What is the decision-making structure that underpins career self-determination? Having examined existing models and various studies of the impact of their respective variables, we propose a general model which is inspired by three others: a structural model differentiating between internal and external axes, a hierarchical model and a dynamic model. In order to confirm this hypothesis, we have conducted two distinct experiments. The first of these, with a sample group of 665 students from three university backgrounds (psychology, general science and humanities), enabled us to observe the changing dynamics of career maturity during a career guidance activity. The second experiment, carried out with 322 psychology and science students, showed the interaction of numerous internal personal characteristics, such as the locus of control, the feeling of self-efficacy, autonomy, decision stress and career maturity. As opposed to earlier general preconceptions, we suggest that this last characteristic (career maturity) is just one of the components of a general self-determination model based on hierarchy, dynamics and multiple variables. Subsequent research, carried out with 186 students, has shown the moderating and conflictual aspects of the values (autonomy and stimulation) adopted by persons open to change and the values (tradition and conformity) of persons preferring to continue without change within the decision process.
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Avaliação de modelo de tomada de decisão para escolha de sistema de tratamento de esgoto sanitário / Evaluation of decision-making model to choice system for treatment of sewageAlexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti 17 March 2009 (has links)
Uma solução para a preservação das águas é o investimento em saneamento e no tratamento do esgoto sanitário, que é realizado por meio de estações de tratamento de esgoto. Todavia, a escolha do sistema de tratamento a ser implantado em um município deve atender aos requisitos técnicos, ambientais, sociais e econômicos do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi validar e avaliar a aplicabilidade de um modelo de tomada de decisão para escolha de sistema de tratamento de esgoto sanitário de menor custo econômico desenvolvido por Oliveira (2004). Este modelo elabora o dimensionamento de oito sistemas de tratamento e, a partir desses dados, faz a estimativa do custo de implantação, manutenção e operação de cada sistema. Para esta avaliação, foram realizadas entrevistas em órgãos relacionados a saneamento no Brasil, bem como com tomadores de decisão e especialistas em saneamento, a fim de coletar os dados necessários para aplicação de testes com o modelo. No total, foram coletados dados de 61 projetos de estações de tratamento de esgoto, os quais foram utilizados nos testes realizados. Durante a avaliação do modelo, foram utilizadas técnicas como simulação, análise hierárquica de processos e equilíbrio de Nash, além de serem realizados ajustes nos custos do modelo, nas variáveis utilizadas, nos sistemas de tratamento, dentre outras, totalizando 12 novas versões até a final, denominada ETEX-FEARP. Com base nas análises realizadas neste trabalho, considera-se o modelo adequado para proporcionar uma visão global no planejamento dos investimentos, bem como para estudos de concepções de estações de tratamento, auxiliando o tomador de decisão na escolha do sistema, com base em critérios econômicos, ambientais e técnicos. / A solution for the preservation of the water is the investment in sanitation and in the treatment of sanitary sewer, which is accomplished through sewer treatment stations. However, the choice of the treatment system to be implanted in a municipal district should meet its technical, environmental, social and economical requirements. The main objective of this research was to validate and to evaluate the applicability of a decision making model to choose the system of sanitary sewer treatment with the lowest economical cost developed by Oliveira (2004). This model elaborates the sizing of eight treatment systems, and then it estimates the implantation cost, maintenance and operation of each system. For this evaluation, interviews were performed in institutions related to sanitation in Brazil, as well as with decision makers and specialists in sanitation, in order to collect the necessary data for application of tests with the model. In the total, data from 61 projects of sewer treatment stations were collected, which were used in the accomplished tests. During the evaluation of the model, techniques such as simulation, hierarchical analysis of processes and Nash equilibrium were used. In addition, changes have been made in the costs of the model, in the used variables, in the treatment systems, among others, totaling 12 new versions, and the final version, was denominated \"ETEX-FEARP\". Based on the analysis done in this research, the model is considered appropriate to provide a global vision in the planning of the investments, as well as for studies of conceptions of treatment stations, helping the decision maker choose the system, based on economical, environmental and technical criteria.
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The Importance of Construct Definition and Specification in Operations Management Structured Model Research: The Case for Quality and Sustainability Constructs in a Decision-Making ModelXu, Lu 08 1900 (has links)
In the operations management research, the inconsistent use of the same term for different concepts and the use of the similar concepts for different constructs potentially causes theoretical and statistical problems. This research addresses the importance of construct definitions and specification methodologically within the context of quality and sustainability management. It involves three essays using multiple quantitative methods such as partial least squares structural equation modeling and multiple regression in different consumer decision-making models in the automobile industry. In the first two essays, a comprehensive literature review results in definition and contextualization of the quality and sustainability constructs as applied to operations management and marketing research. The relationships of these constructs with consumer behavior are empirically tested. Building upon the first two essays, the third essay addresses the methodological issues on formative and reflective measurements by summarizing a procedure of validating formative measurements. The quality construct was used to illustrate the methodology. This research contributes to the literature, theory, and practices in the area of quality and sustainability management.
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Modelagem em SIG da fragilidade ambiental para o processo de eutrofização antrópica em reservatórios tropicais / A GIS-Based Model to access the environmental fragility to human-induced eutrophication in tropical reservoirsMartins, Iris Amati 14 September 2017 (has links)
Os sistemas naturais e humanos são considerados sistemas integrados, com interações complexas e de caráter fortemente multidisciplinar. A abordagem da limnologia da paisagem, como um princípio holístico para avaliar as relações complexas entre a bacia de captação e o reservatório, é de grande importância na produção de diagnósticos consistentes. O modelo de tomada de decisão foi produzido por meio de literatura especializada, conhecimento de especialistas, Processo Hierárquico Analítico (AHP) e Avaliação Multicritério (MCE). O modelo foi desenvolvido para atuar em escala da paisagem, considerando a bacia de captação como a escala observacional. Foram selecionados sete critérios (variáveis preditoras) para determinar o grau de fragilidade ambiental para o processo de eutrofização antrópica em reservatórios tropicais: Variáveis Intrínsecas do Reservatório: (1) morfometria (profundidade) e Tempo de Retenção (RT); (2) Variáveis Limnológicas: Zona Eufótica e presença de macrófitas de crescimento intensivo; (3) Variáveis Antrópicas: Fonte de Poluição Difusa Potencial; e (4) Variáveis Hidrológicas: Taxa de Sedimentação e escoamento superficial potencial. No processo de ponderação das variáveis, todas as matrizes foram consistentes e os especialistas priorizaram o Escoamento Superficial potencial e a Fonte de Poluição Difusa Potencial com os principais responsáveis pelo processo de eutrofização antrópica. Apesar dos critérios e pesos serem fixos para os reservatórios tropicais, existe a possibilidade de ajuste do modelo de acordo com situações especiais, já que o modelo é flexível suficiente para ser utilizados em outras bacias de captação, com características diferentes e intrínsecas. O modelo também é adaptável em função da disponibilidade de base de dados / The human and natural systems are integrated systems, with complex interactions and a strong multidisciplinary character. The application of landscape limnology, as a holistic principle to address the complex relationships between the watershed and reservoir, are of great importance to produce consistent diagnoses and predictions. The GIS-based model was performed by using literature, expert knowledge, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE). The model was performed in a landscape scale considering the watershed as the observational scale. We selected seven criteria (predictor variables) to assess the environmental fragility to human-induced eutrophication in tropical reservoirs: (1) Intrinsic Reservoir Variables: morphometry (depth) and Retention Time (RT); (2) Limnological Variables: euphotic zone and intensive-growth macrophytes presence; (3) Anthropic Variable: Potential Non-Point Source (NPS); and (4) Hydrological Variable: Sedimentation Rate and Potential Runoff. In the weighting process, all matrices were consistent and the experts prioritized the potential runoff and potential NPS criteria as the main drivers of human-induced eutrophication. Although the criteria and its weights are considered fixed for any tropical reservoir, it is possible to adjust them according to specific situations since the model proposed is flexible enough to be used in different watersheds with different and intrinsic characteristics and adapted according to the database availability
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A Study on Identification of Evaluative Dimensions and Development of Decision-Making Tool(s) for Project Evaluation and Selection of New Product Portfolio ManagementKiranmayi, P January 2016 (has links) (PDF)
The rapidly evolving global market scenario raised multiple challenges for an organization such as: change in customer needs and lifestyle, increased competition, compulsion to enter into new markets, pursue to innovate and so on, which raises an additional challenge for organization to sustain and succeed. In order to meet these multiple challenges, continuous New Product Development (NPD) turns out to be one of the essential tasks for any organization to improve market share, profitability and to succeed. In this scenario, a new product portfolio with best mix of new projects that ensures strategic alignment, balance of portfolio and improves organizations’ potential gain is compulsion. However, From the literature, it is observed that, ‘As nearly half of initial NPD ideas occur informally or without a specific goal, even a best performing organization requires a major improvement in the decision making process of Project Evaluation and Selection (PES)’. This emphasizes the significance of decision on Project Evaluation and Selection (PES) of NPD. Additionally, huge investments and resources need to be employed based on decision that is taken at PES phase of NPD. Thus PES turns out to be a crucial and essential phase of New Product Process (NPP). All these stated aspects of this challenging and crucial strategic decision of PES provoke for the requirement of an efficient management system and decision making model. In the literature the management system and decision making processes for formulation of portfolio is termed as “New Product Portfolio Management (NPPM)”.
Though various researchers have been focusing on this particular issue of improving NPPM Performance, from the analysis of literature, to the best of our knowledge, it is observed that no one has identified or considered an exhaustive list of possible evaluative dimensions while taking the decision on PES of NPPM (PES-NPPM). This thesis makes an attempt to address this research gap, and the scope of this study is pertained to three sectors of manufacturing industry, namely, Automotive, Electronics and Machine Tools.
Accordingly, the main objective of this thesis is “
In order to achieve this particular objective the following sub-objectives, methodologies, and analysis are carried out.
For this purpose, first and foremost analysis of literature on PES is carried out. Accordingly, five evaluative dimensions are identified for PES-NPPM and they are: (i) Strategic Fit; (ii) Portfolio-Innovation Balance;
(iii) Risk-Uncertainty Estimation; (iv) Cost-Revenue Estimation and (v) Optimized Resource Allocation. Furthermore, it is observed that, there is no study considering all the five evaluative dimensions simultaneously for PES-NPPM either to analyze their impact on performance of NPPM or to develop a decision making model. Thus, we are addressing a new problem configuration in the area of PES-NPPM.
Additionally, though the requirements of multi-criteria models for PES-NPPM is discussed both in academic and practioners points of view, the real demonstration of the applicability of multi-criteria models are given a scant treatment in the literature. . By the end of the achieving this objective, we identified five distinct evaluative dimensions which are used in different combinations for PES-NPPM. Further, for measuring each of these five evaluative dimensions, we identified 23, 11, 15, 10, and 18 measurement variables respectively.
Based on the evaluative dimensions considered in this study, a framework work is proposed for PES-NPPM. Due to the limitation of empirical evidences on considering the identified evaluative dimensions and respective measurement variables towards the proposed initial framework for PES-NPPM, another exploratory study: a case study method is carried out.
In addition to the process of triangulation, the case study approach is carried out to understand (a) significance and nature of the identified measurement variables of all the five evaluative dimensions for PES-NPPM, and (b) real-life practices in decision making process of PES-NPPM and to identify the requirements of decision making tools. Accordingly, 12 case studies (4 each) from three manufacturing sectors, considered in this study, are conducted. Further, 12 case study reports are prepared and inferences are drawn. The inferences drawn are verified by conducting an individual brain-storming session with 3 academicians and 4 practitioners. The detailed analysis of the 12 case study reports endorsed the necessity of considering all the five identified evaluative dimensions in the proposed framework for PES-NPPM.
In addition, the case study analysis revealed some of the variables originally considered for measuring the evaluative dimensions are not really the measurement variables, whereas those variables are expected to impact the decision making environment of PES-NPPM (or) NPPM Performance. Further those non-measurement variables are classified into (a) Characteristic Variables of PES-NPPM, and (b) Moderating variables for NPPM. Based on this, case study analysis identified 8 characteristic variables and 8 moderating variables. This specific observation resulted to analyze further the existing literature in order to identify if there exist any additional variables which impact decision making environment of PES-NPPM (or) NPPM Performance. Thus, from the analysis of literature and case study analysis 17 characteristic variable and 13 moderating variables are identified.
Additionally, For this purpose, Partial Least Square – Path Modeling (PLS-PM) (or) regression analysis is conducted depending upon type of variables with 104 observations (representing 34, 39, and 31 observations of the three sectors respectively) to analyze the relationships between characteristic and moderating variables on decision-making environment of PES-NPPM and NPPM Performance respectively.
From case study analysis, it is observed that the decision making tool required should provide: (a) ability to incorporate
judgmental scores along with financial and other quantitative metrics, (b) ability to attain a balance of portfolio and consider interactions among project, and (c) ability to provide alternatives and rank the alternatives. In addition to the observation drawn from the case study analysis on the need of MCDM based tool(s), analysis of the literature is carried out to verify the same. As this problem scenario considers both quantitative and qualitative data for the development of a decision making tool, an appropriate technique/methodology needs to be employed. Based on analysis of literature and the case study reports, this study proposes an integrated Data Envelopment Analysis and Balanced Scorecard (DEA-BSC) model for individual PES. Further, the proposed DEA-BSC model is extended for evaluation of new product portfolio.
In the process of formulation of new product portfolio, first, every new product project is evaluated with the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model. Second, an algorithm is designed to generate alternate portfolios with the selected set of efficient new product projects. Then, DEA-BSC model is employed to evaluate the generated portfolios. At this step, an accumulation functions are proposed which considers interactions among projects. These accumulation functions determine the overall input and output of the portfolio along with interactions involved. Accordingly, the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model for portfolio evaluation is expected to result in a balanced portfolio with profitable new product projects. In addition, the workability of the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model is demonstrated by developing a suitable numerical example. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on proposed DEA-BSC model to analyze the robustness of the results.
In summary, this thesis examined a problem of decision making of NPPM. Further, this problem was retained with main focus on PES phase. Accordingly, the major contributions of this thesis are as follows:
Identified an exhaustive lists of evaluative dimensions: (i) Strategic Fit; (ii) Portfolio-Innovation Balance; (iii) Risk-Uncertainty Estimation; (iv) Cost-Revenue Estimation and (v) Optimized Resource Allocation. Also identified the significance of these five dimensions in case of PES-NPPM. In addition, all the five evaluative dimensions are considered simultaneously for development of a multi criteria decision making tool for PES-NPPM.
Identified the required measurement variables for each of the evaluative dimensions, considered in this study, that are essential for PES, and analyzed their influence on performance of NPPM.
Identified and analyzed characteristic and moderating variables that influence decision making environment of PES-NPPM and performance of NPPM respectively.
Identified the requirements of a decision making tool for PES-NPPM and developed an integrated DEA-BSC model for PES.
To the best of our knowledge, the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model is considered to be the first hybrid model applied to PES-NPPM. Furthermore for implementing the proposed DEA-BSC model, an algorithm is proposed in this study and this is expected to assist decision maker for selecting the right set of projects for new product portfolio with higher development potential, profitability and minimize the associated risk.
Identified possible project interactions caused due to external or internal factors and accordingly proposed an accumulation function to capture these interactions.
Proposed an algorithm for formulation of new product portfolio and accordingly proposed a detail step-by-step procedure for implementation of the proposed integrated DEA-BSC model.
Though this study analyzes the impact of characteristic variables on decision-making environment of PES-NPPM, we limit to link this impact to DEA-BSC Model. In this study, an attempt is made to capture the moderating effect on NPPM Performance, but this study limits to link this moderating effect in proposed DEA-BSC model. Finally, the validation of the workability of proposed DEA-BSC model is limited to the numerical example considered in the study and not to the real-life problems scenarios.
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