Com o intuito de reduzir a incidência de acidentes no trânsito, em 19 de junho de 2008 foi promulgada a Lei n 11.705, que enrijece as penalidades aplicadas às pessoas que dirigem sob efeito de bebidas alcoólicas. O presente trabalho trata do impacto sobre a demanda por cervejas subsequente à aprovação da referida lei, cujas punições nela declaradas representam uma internalização de custos que o indivíduo infrator impõe à sociedade. Nesse sentido, buscando inibir o comportamento nocivo à sociedade, a lei gerou incentivos para a queda na demanda por cervejas - bebida alcoólica mais consumida entre os brasileiros. O impacto sobre a compra desses produtos é mostrado neste trabalho, também são estimadas uma função de demanda e elasticidades a partir de um modelo Nested com o objetivo de obter-se um imposto que produziria efeitos equivalentes sobre a queda na quantidade vendida. / In order to reduce the incidence of traffic accidents, the Law No. 11,705 was enacted in June 19, 2008, hardening the penalties applied to people who drive under influence of alcohol. This paper deals with the impact on the demand for beers subsequent to the approval of that law, which stablished punishments in due to internalization of costs that the offender individual imposes on society. In this sense, seeking to inhibit the harmful behavior to society, the law created incentives for the drop in demand for beer - the most consumed alcohol drinking in Brazil . The impact on the purchase of these products is shown in this paper, the demand elasticities estimated from a nested model in order to obtain a tax that would produce the equivalent effect of the fall in the quantity demanded.

Um bom sistema de previsão de demanda é um dos passos para o sucesso de uma empresa. Previsões com baixos erros permitem a manutenção de um estoque reduzido, uma ocupação de fábrica e uma gestão financeira mais eficiente, em conjunto com outros benefícios trazidos por um sistema confiável. Há diversas formas de realizar uma previsão, mas há anos a que vem sendo considerada mais promissora é a que integra métodos quantitativos e qualitativos. Ambos os métodos possuem vantagens exclusivas, o que torna a integração particularmente interessante. Este trabalho visa o desenvolvimento e teste de um sistema de previsão em uma empresa de grande porte, a fim de disponibilizar uma forma confiável de integração de métodos. Busca ainda validar o auxilio de especialistas nos ajustes de previsão de forma que os problemas provenientes do julgamento humano possam ser evitados. Uma comparação entre as várias previsões realizadas é apresentada, de forma que o leitor possa interpretá-las e julgar quais possam ser as mais adequadas à situação em que se encontra. / A good forecasting system is one of the steps to the success of a company. Forecasts with small errors enable the maintenance of a reduced inventory, a more efficient factory occupation and financial management, together with other benefits provided by a reliable system. There are several ways to make a forecast, but for years the quantitative and qualitative methods integrated has been considered more promising. Both methods have unique advantages which makes it particularly interesting integration. This paper aims to develop and test a forecasting system in a large company in order to provide a reliable form of integration methods. It also seeks to validate the aid of experts in the predictive adjustments so that problems derived from the human judgment can be avoided. A comparison of the various forecasts made is provided in a way that the reader can interpret them and judge which may be the most appropriate to the situation you are in.

[pt] A presente dissertação de mestrado refere-se a um estudo de demanda de serviços técnicos especializados da indústria naval brasileira, desenvolvido sob duas óticas distintas: (i) a das instituições ofertantes de serviços e (ii)a das empresas demandantes. A primeira abordagem, denominada Parte 1 da pesquisa, considerou as demandas de serviços técnicos especializados das empresas do setor industrial naval atendidas por três importantes instituições prestadoras de serviços sediadas no Rio de Janeiro (Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia – INT, Instituto Tecnológico da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do rio de Janeiro – ITUC/PUC-Rio e Fundação Coordenação de Pesquisas, Projetos e Estudos Tecnológicos da Universidade do Rio de Janeiro – COPPETEC/UFRJ), no período de 1986 à 1991. Os dados utilizados na Parte 1 da pesquisa, referem-se à demanda atendida de 17 empresas e originaram-se de uma base de dados consolidada no âmbito de um projeto mais amplo (descrito na referência bibliográfica [24]), que explicitou a demanda (consumo) de serviços técnicos especializados de 1.347 empresas públicas e privadas vinculadas aos diferentes setores econômicos do estado do Rio de Janeiro. Uma outra abordagem desenvolvida na Parte 2 da pesquisa envolveu trabalho de campo realizado diretamente junto às empresas do setor naval sediadas no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Dentre as 21 empresas identificadas como atuantes no mercado de reparos e construção naval, 12 aceitaram participar do estudo. Objetivando diversificar o perfil do trabalho, também foi incluída 1 empresa fabricante de navipeças. Tendo em vista o porte das empresas estudadas, e baseando-se em dados do Sindicato Nacional da Construção Naval – SINAVAL e em outras informações disponíveis, acredita-se que a amostra estudada possui representatividade nacional, correspondendo a um índice superior a 50 por cento da produção naval do País. Essa amostra também ganha relevância pelo fato do Estado do Rio de Janeiro concentrar aproximadamente 92 por cento da produção nacional, característica de mercado que fortemente facilitou a pesquisa de campo. Os resultados deste trabalho permitiram caracterizar o perfil e os condicionantes da demanda, dimensionar o porte do mercado de serviços técnicos estimulados pela indústria naval e estabelecer um diagnóstico de adequação da demanda à ofeta de serviços e das instituições públicas e privadas sediadas no estado do Rio de Janeiro. Adicionalmente, estimou-se o potencial de terceirização de serviços técnicos especializados atualmente realizados internamente pelas próprias empresas da indústria naval, de forma a demonstrar oportunidades de novos mercados para as instituições ofertantes. Essas informações devem não só construir elementos da estratégia de marketing e replanejamento das instituições atuantes na prestação de serviços como também subsidiar a formulação de políticas públicas objetivando o desenvolvimento do setor naval. / [en] The present dissertation is a study of the demand for specialized technical services in the brazilian naval industry. The demand was approached under two different perspectives. First, from that observed through orders placed by this industry at three important technical institutes located in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia – INT, Instituto Tecnológico da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do rio de Janeiro – ITUC/PUC-Rio e Fundação Coordenação de Pesquisas, Projetos e Estudos Tecnológicos da Universidade do Rio de Janeiro – COPPETEC/UFRJ), in the period from 1986 to 1991. The second approach surveyed the demand from the industry. The data for Part 1 of the research came from a data bank developed in a brader study (decribed in reference [24]) which analysed the demand (consumption) for specialized technical services of the 1347 public and private firms pertaining to different economic sectors of the state of the Rio de Janeiro. In this respect, this part of the research was limited to the consideration of the real demand met by the three institutes investigated. The second approach developed in part 2 of the study involved field research covering 12 of the 21 firms active in the market of ship repairs and shipbuilding in the state of Rio de Janeiro. According to data from Sinaval (national Shipbuilding Union) and other sources of the whole naval industry. This sample is significant given the fact that 92 per cent of the national insdustry is concentrated in the state of Rio de Janeiro, characteristic which strongly simplified the field research. This part of the reserarch focus on both effective and potential demand for especialized technical services. The results of the present work provide a detailed characterization of the demand profile and the identification of the determining factors that affect this demand for technical services. They also alow to estimate the size of the market as well as its needs and potential growth on the basis of demands currently not met by the technical institutes. Furthermore, the study also stimated the potential for growth based on the willingness of such firms to increase its outsourcing of internally supplied services. These results should be useful in guiding the bussiness and technical development efforts of the institutes as well as to subsidize the formulation of public policies aiming at increasing the technical capabilities of the naval sector.

The purpose of this study was to develop and empirically test the Supply Chain Integration Framework (SCI framework) in order to develop a framework to address the inefficiencies experienced in the public hospital pharmacies’ Supply Chain (SC) in Kenya. Supply Chain Management (SCM) can be regarded as a vibrant business entity that is changing and evolving continually because of constant changes in technology, competition and customer demands. The study investigated and analysed how the independent variables, namely SCI initiatives, performance improvement drivers, organisation environmental forces, workforce and management support, financial factors, flow and integration, regulatory framework and information sharing and technology influenced the SCI. The SCI was categorised into three components namely: customer order fulfilment, supplier collaboration and dedicated SC as the dependent variable. The literature reviewed established that globalisation and intensive worldwide competition, alongside technological developments, creates a completely new operating environment for organisations. The researcher reviewed various models and theories related to SCI which include systems theory, value chain models and value ecology models among others. An SCI framework was then developed to capture the interacting variables within the SCI network that could be adopted for the public hospital pharmacies in Kenya. The study was conducted using a survey questionnaire (Annexure B) that comprised both open and closed ended questions that were distributed to managers in public hospitals and pharmacies in Kenya. The population for the survey was 154 public hospital pharmacies in Kenya, with the final sample comprised of 280 respondents. The study was conducted using a survey questionnaire (Annexure B) that comprised both open and closed ended questions that were distributed to 325 respondents in 154 public hospitals and pharmacies in Kenya. The population for the survey was 154 public hospital pharmacies in Kenya, with the final sample comprised of 280 respondents. Exploratory factor analysis was used to ascertain the validity of the measuring instrument and the Cronbach alpha coefficients were used to measure the reliability of the measuring instruments. Key preliminary tests performed were the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test (KMO test) of sample adequacy, the Bartlett’s test of sphericity and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Z-Statistic test) for normality and multi-collinearity diagnostic. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and multiple linear regressions were the main statistical procedures used to test the regression model fit and the significance of the relationships hypothesised among various variables in the study. Statistical softwares, namely Statistica 10 (2010) and Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 18, were used to analyse quantitative data. The study identified five statistically significant relationships between customer order fulfilment and workforce and management support, financial factors, flow and integration, information sharing and technology, supplier collaborations and dedicated SCI. In addition, a total of six statistically significant relationships exist between the supplier collaborations and SCI initiatives i.e. performance improvement drivers, workforce and management support, financial factors, flow and integration, information sharing and technology adoption as well as dedicated SCI. Furthermore, four statistically significant relationships were found between dedicated SCI and SCI initiatives, workforce and management support, financial factors, flow and integration, information sharing and technology adoption.

No description available.

The per capita consumption of beer in the Czech Republic is one of the biggest in the world. However, in recent years the consumption has started to decrease. This thesis analyzes determinants of demand of beer and possible causes of decreasing of beer consumption. The whole market is analyzed using the time series models. In the next step, the market was separated into on-trade and off-trade part. No previous researches have dealt with this division. It was proved, that wine is a substitute of the on-trade beer, but a complement of the off-trade beer. On-trade beer is an ordinary good and if the price increases by one Czech crown, the consumption will decrease by 5 %. Spirits are complements of on-trade beer. No impact caused by price on the consumption of off-trade beer was proved. During the analysis of off-trade beer was found out, that the beer is the gross substitute of wine and that the good weather makes its consumption to increase. The future prediction for 2014 suggests that average person will consume 57,5 liters of on-trade beer.

There has been increased interest internationally in using public procurement as an innovation policy. China too has employed innovation oriented public procurement (IOPP) to implement its ‘indigenous innovation’ strategy. This thesis explores China’s IOPP policy processes, evaluates the appropriateness of these policies, and explains key issues identified. Literature strands on innovation, policy, public procurement, and IOPP are drawn upon to analyse IOPP and related policies. IOPP processes are conceptualized as dynamics shaped by the institutions, actors and interactions of innovation and public procurement systems. IOPP policies are framed as horizontal mixes of cross-domain interventions, and vertical mixes of goals, rationales, instruments, designed implementation structures, actual implementation processes, and outcomes. A criterion for evaluating policy appropriateness is coherence between the various dimensions. Macro-level policies impact on micro-level processes which in turn provide evidence of implementation. A multi-level case study methodology is adopted to link up macro/national, meso/regional and micro/local levels of policy design, articulation and implementation. Implementation is characterized through three IOPP policy channels, a channel being a characteristic group of policies to promote IOPP. Channel 1 employed ‘innovation catalogues’, which was unexpectedly terminated in 2011 in response to concerns from other countries over China’s perceived protectionist tendency. Channel 1 was found to be a centralized mechanism to implement general IOPP across all regions, sectors and levels of governance. As a one-size-fits-all approach requiring cross-domain, cross-level coordination, it failed to achieve coherence with the institutional fragmentation of China’s innovation and procurement systems. The other two channels were implicit, strategic IOPP approaches i.e. commercialization projects for ‘major technological equipment’ with a rationale of pre-commercial procurement (Channel 2), and demonstration programmes for emerging technologies with a rationale of creating lead markets (Channel 3). These two channels realized better coherence with China’s systems as both were targeted at specific sectors and levels. Cross-case analysis suggests that micro-level IOPP processes were more frequently shaped by local contexts of stakeholders, interactions and informal institutions rather than IOPP policies. Interventionist local governments and proactive suppliers played stronger roles than procurers in initiating IOPP. IOPP cycles followed diverse and informal pathways not always competition-based, which might have breached de jure procurement regulations but China’s weak formal institutions allowed this flexibility. Informal institutions sometimes mitigated flaws of formal ones and facilitated IOPP, but could easily play competing roles (notably regional protectionism) that hinder policy implementation. This thesis contributes to IOPP knowledge by: offering a conceptual approach to IOPP policy analysis concerning implementation and appropriateness evaluation; uncovering China’s IOPP dynamics based on which the understanding of IOPP as a research subject is deepened. Policy implications include lessons for catching-up countries emphasizing institutional capacity and government capability, and more general issues highlighting policy differentiation and complementarity, and intermediation.

In this thesis, we study the statistical issues in lost sales inventory systems, focusing on the complexity arising from the stochastic demand. We model the demand by the Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator of the ZIP parameters taking censoring into account are derived separately for the newsvendor and the (s, S) inventory systems. We also investigate the effect of the estimation errors on the optimal policies and their costs. We observe from a simulation study that the MLE taking censoring into account performed the best in terms of cost as well as policy among various estimates. We then proceed to develop a Bayesian dynamic updating scheme of the ZIP parameters. It is applied to the newsvendor system. We perform a simulation study to investigate the advantage of the Bayesian updating approach over the traditional MLE approach. We conclude that the Bayesian pproach offers a better learning technique when one lacks of good understanding of the demand pattern in the first few periods. Since inventory policy affects the information acquisition and-the demand distribution updating process, how to determine the optimal inventory policy when the demand distribution is yet to be learned is the focus of the latter part of the thesis. We investigate the effect of demand censoring on the optimal policy in newsvendor inventory models with general parametric demand distribution and unknown parameter values. We provide theoretical proof of the conjecture that it is better off to adopt a higher than the myopic optimal policy in the initial periods when demand is learned in a censoring system. We show that the newsvendor problem with observable lost sales reduces to a sequence of single-period problems while the newsvendor problem with unobservable lost sales requires a dynamic analysis. We explore the economic rationality for this observation and illustrate it with numerical examples. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The three essays in this thesis address various problems in the general area of supply chain management. In general, supply chain management is concerned with management of the flow of goods, information, and funds among supply chain members, such as suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and consumers. As such, its scope includes timing and quantity of material flow, logistics, improving efficiencies in problems with several decision makers, etc. The first essay in this thesis considers the problem of improving coordination in a decentralized system of retailers, while the second one addresses stability and profitability of Internet-based supply exchange alliances. The third essay analyzes a logistics problem, of finding an optimal route for a capacitated vehicle which travels on a graph and which can perform pickups and deliveries. In the first essay, we study a three-stage model of a decentralized distribution system with n retailers who each faces a stochastic demand for an identical product. In the first stage, before the demand is realized, each retailer independently orders her initial inventory. In the second stage, after the realization of the demand, each retailer decides what portion of her residual supply/demand she wants to share with the other retailers. In the third stage, residual inventories are transshipped in order to possibly meet residual demands, and an additional profit is allocated among the retailers. We study the effect of implementing various allocations rules in the third stage on the levels of the residual supply/demand the retailers are willing to share with others in the second stage, and the tradeoff involved in achieving a solution which is also optimal for the corresponding centralized system. The second essay is concerned with the formation of Internet-based supply exchange alliances among three or fewer retailers of possibly substitutable products. We provide some conditions, in terms of product substitutability and quality of suppliers, which would lead to the formation of a three member alliance, or a two member alliance, or no alliance at all. We also study the effect of alliance structure and quality of suppliers on the profit of a retailer. The third essay considers a vehicle routing problem with pickups and deliveries (VRPD problem) on some special graphs. Some vertices on the graph represent delivery customers, and other vertices represent pickup customers. The objective is to find a minimum length tour for a capacitated vehicle, which starts at a depot and travels on the graph while satisfying all the requests by the customers without violating the vehicle capacity constraint, and returns to a depot. We have developed linear time algorithms for the VRPD problem on a path and on tree graphs, linear and O (|V| log |V|) algorithm for a VRPD problem defined on a path with parametric initial capacity, and quadratic and O (|V|² log |V|) algorithms for a VRPD problem defined over a cycle graph. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

This dissertation deals with theoretical and empirical aspects of factor demand and output supply decisions of firms. In the theoretical part of the thesis, some major existing theories of investment are discussed and their formulation is extended to the case of firms which extract an exhaustible resource. Those theories are then incorporated into a model which exploits complementarities between some of them and can reflect some well-known hypotheses, such as the putty-clay hypothesis, as special cases. This model relies on a general notion of irreversibility: a decision is defined as irreversible if it introduces a new constraint to a firm. This constraint may be a non negativity constraint, but may also mean the appearance of costs of adjustments. Such an approach implies a distinction between ex ante phases and ex post phases in the life of firms, those phases being separated by the irreversible decisions. Two empirical applications are presented. The first one corresponds to the ex ante phase of the theoretical model, and deals with the capacity selection decision of some North-American open-pit metal mines. According to the evidence, this decision takes account of economic parameters, such as expected prices, as well as geological and technological parameters. The second empirical application correspond to the ex post phase of the theoretical model, and deals with the short-run production decisions of some mines. Both empirical studies provide support for the putty-clay hypothesis. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate