O presente trabalho busca avaliar os efeitos da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira sobre variáveis macroeconômicas como oferta de crédito ao setor privado, produto nominal, reservas internacionais, risco-país, taxa de juros e volatilidade cambial, no decorrer do período que vai de 1995 a 2014, por meio da estimação de dois modelos econométricos assentados em Vetores Autorregressivos: o primeiro com Mudanças Markovianas de Regime (MS-VAR), e o segundo com correção de erros vetorial (VEC). Além disso, realiza revisão da literatura teórica e empírica acerca da liberalização financeira externa e seus desdobramentos; apresenta os indicadores de abertura (ICC) - presente nos trabalhos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) e Cunha e Laan (2013), dentre outros - e de integração financeira (IIF); e expõe a história do processo brasileiro de liberalização financeira. No que tange aos resultados, ambas as metodologias econométricas apontam que: uma reversão do ciclo financeiro global impacta negativamente as duas dimensões da liberalização financeira externa da economia brasileira; um avanço da desregulamentação não gera efeitos significativos, o que contrasta com a posição favorável à plena conversibilidade da conta capital e financeira, defendida por Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); um aumento no grau de integração financeira engendra desdobramentos macroeconômicos problemáticos. No que tange ao modelo MS-VAR, sublinha-se que as consequências de um choque liberalizante são mais profundas em momentos de reversão do ciclo financeiro global, bem como que a endogeneidade dos controles, nos termos de Cardoso e Goldfajn (1998), é contingente à fase vigente do ciclo financeiro global. Quanto ao modelo VEC, destaca-se a precedência, no sentido de Granger, da variação da volatilidade financeira internacional frente à variação grau de integração financeira da economia brasileira, e deste frente à variação do risco-país. Conclui que, se não é possível descartar os benefícios da abertura financeira, há que se redobrar a atenção frente a seus riscos, considerando também as consequências negativas em termos de grau de integração financeira e a influência do ciclo financeiro global. / This study aims to evaluate the external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy on macroeconomic variables such as country risk, credit supply to the private sector, exchange rate volatility, interest rate, international reserves and nominal product, during the period from 1995 to 2014, by estimating two Vectors Autoregressive econometric models: the first with Markov-Switching (MS-VAR), and the second with Vector Error-Correction (VEC). In addition, this study aimed to: conduct a review of theoretical and empirical literature about external financial liberalization and its consequences; present financial opening index (ICC) - present in the work of Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), Soihet (2002), Laan (2007) and Cunha and Laan (2013), among others - and financial integration index (IIF); and exposing the history of Brazilian process of financial liberalization. With respect to the results, both econometric methodologies show that: a reversal of the global financial cycle adversely impacts the two dimensions of external financial liberalization of the Brazilian economy; an advance of deregulation does not generate significant effects, in contrast to the position in favor of capital account full convertibility, advocated by Arida (2003a, 2003b, 2004); an increase in financial integration creates problematic macroeconomic developments. Regarding the MS-VAR model, it points out that the consequences of a liberalizing shock are deeper in times of reversal of global financial cycle and that the endogeneity of capital controls, from Cardoso and Goldfajn (1998), is contingent on current phase of the global financial cycle. Regarding the VEC model, there is precedence, in Granger terms, of the international financial volatility variation over the Brazilian economy financial degree variation, and from it to country risk variation. It is concluded that if it cannot be dismissed the benefits of financial openness, we must exercise caution against its risks, also considering the negative consequences in terms of financial integration degree and the influence of global financial cycle.

La logistique urbaine, considérée comme la dernière étape de la supply chain, recouvre toute prestation concourant à une gestion optimisée des flux de marchandises en milieu urbain. Le transport de marchandises a des effets négatifs importants dans les zones urbaines en termes de congestion, d'émissions nocives et de consommation d'espace. Pour atténuer ces effets, une collaboration entre les différents acteurs de la logistique urbaine a souvent été initiée dans de nombreuses villes. La collaboration dans les projets de logistique urbaine est difficile, elle nécessite de réunir de nombreuse parties prenantes dont les intérêts sont souvent divergents. Ces dernières années, la mutualisation logistique est apparue comme une stratégie qui mène à une collaboration systématique entre acteurs. Cependant, elle a peu été étudiée dans le contexte urbain L’objectif de cette thèse est de proposer une réflexion sur la conception d’une logistique urbaine innovante grâce à la mutualisation. Pour cela, nous avons effectué un état de l’art systématique afin d’identifier les différents champs de la logistique urbaine. Selon les résultats de cette revue de la littérature, nous avons constaté une absence d'analyse sur les aspects opérationnels de la mutualisation. Afin de remédier à ce manque, nous avons proposé un cadre général qui aide à identifier toutes les mesures nécessaires en vue d'une mutualisation efficace. Nous avons développé un nouveau concept, appelé « typologie des flux » permettant d’analyser différentes possibilités de mutualisation en logistique urbaine et ensuite d’identifier les contraintes potentielles liées à la mutualisation. Nous avons quantifié les effets de ces contraintes sur l'efficacité de la mutualisation utilisant un cas réel issu de la littérature. Enfin, nous avons mobilisé notre typologie des flux et les résultats de notre analyses expérimentales afin de classifier les facteurs clés permettant d’aborder la viabilité de la mutualisation à long terme. / City logistics, considered as the last step of supply chain management, aims to optimally plan, manage and control the freight movements within a logistical network in urban areas. Freight transportation causes significant negative impacts on the quality of living in urban areas in terms of congestion, emissions and space consumption. Collaboration has been introduced to alleviate these negative impacts; however, collaboration in city logistics projects is challenging, since additional efforts of planning and control of collaboration are significant. In recent years, pooling has emerged as a collaborative strategy that leads towards systematic collaboration between stakeholders involved while they are well-informed about the processes and have direct influence on decision making.The aim of this thesis is to study possible forms of pooling in the context of city logistics in order to analyse conditions for an efficient pooling implementation. To this end, we have conducted a comprehensive literature review on city logistics in order to analyse and classify its different aspects. Surveying the literature also conducted to identify a lack of systematic analysis on pooling in city logistics. In order to overcome this research gap, we have proposed a general stepwise framework that aids to identify all necessary steps toward an efficient pooling implementation. Furthermore, we have introduced a novel concept, called ‘typology of flow’, to analyse different possibilities of logistics pooling at a first step and to identify potential constraints before pooling implementation at a second step. We have quantified the impacts of these constraints on the efficiency of pooling using a real case raised from the literature. At the end, we have used our proposed framework, novel concept of typology of flow and results obtained from our experimental analysis in order to classify important factors for city logistics pooling viability in long term.

Increasing interest to optimization of goods incoming process has paralleled the rise of product diversity and advanced warehouse management based on logistics support systems. Nowadays, companies are universally faced with the requirements to reengineer their business processes starting with goods incoming operation, aiming to significantly reduce total operating costs and quickly respond to ultimate consumer. Previous academic research has provided many alternatives to attain the expected results. Nevertheless, an enormous gap still exists between theoretical research and practical operations. The purpose of this paper is to bridge this gap from operation level.We introduced a theoretical framework which was organized around earlier studies, latest findings and established literatures associated with overview of goods incoming process, flows management, seven wastes, logistics support systems etc. Meanwhile, an online fashion retailer, Nelly.com goods incoming process has been mapped from goods receiving, packing and sorting, warehousing to data input. As a result, intermittent material flows and information flows has been realized. Later on, a sensitivity analysis was performed to observe all wastes in the process through precise timing of each detailed activity. As the weaknesses and opportunities have been identified within Nelly’s goods incoming process, some heuristic solutions were proposed in the paper.Generally, flows should be smoothed and accelerated, particularly material flows and information flows related with goods incoming process. The interruption and miscommunication should be avoided to streamline the whole operation. Whilst, we inferred that all wastes within every sub-process have to be aware of. Consequently, some techniques such as scheduled delivery, cross-docking, goods classification, improved logistics support systems were proposed to eliminate wastes. Further on, the prevailed business process reengineering should be conducted as the next step to reallocate some resources or operations.Lastly, we simulated an expected goods incoming process based on Nelly’s status quo and heuristic suggestions. And some future research issues have been presented at the end to extend the vision to relevant domains.

Magister Commercii - MCom / A possible effect of quantitative easing (QE) undertaken by the United States of America (USA) Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) may have been an increase in capital flowing into emerging market economies (EMEs). The 2008 global financial crisis created an environment in which traditional monetary policies – cutting policy rates – became ineffective in stimulating growth. Faced with this policy environment, several high-income countries including the USA resorted to unconventional monetary policies notably QE, to grow their economies. While QE was effective in lowering interest rates in high-income countries, some argued that investors switched to higher yielding assets, mostly EME assets. Therefore, QE is perceived to have increased capital flows into EMEs. Using a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects this mini-thesis investigates empirically whether QE worked through unobservable channels to increase gross private capital inflows to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in the period 2000-2015. The study finds evidence in support of the view that QE increased capital inflows to EMEs. The results reveal that gross private capital inflows to the BRICS increased during the QE intervention period and that the increase was higher in the first period of QE than in subsequent QE periods. The empirical results also reveal differences in the way types of capital flows responded to QE; portfolio flows, and in particular equity flows were the most responsive to QE.

<div>Incompressible single-phase and two-phase flows are widely encountered in and underlie many engineering applications. In this thesis, we aim to develop efficient methods and algorithms for numerical simulations of these classes of problems. Specically, we present two schemes: (1) a modied consistent splitting scheme for incompressible single-phase flows with open/out flow boundaries; (2) a three-dimensional hybrid spectral element-Fourier spectral method for wall-bounded two-phase flows.</div><div><br></div><div><div>In the first part of this thesis, we present a modied consistent splitting type scheme together with a family of energy stable outflow boundary conditions for incompressible single-phase outflow simulations. The key distinction of this scheme lies</div><div>in the algorithmic reformulation of the viscous term, which enables the simulation of outflow problems on severely-truncated domains at moderate to high Reynolds numbers. In contrast, the standard consistent splitting scheme is observed to exhibit a numerical instability even at relatively low Reynolds numbers, and this numerical instability is in addition to the backflow instability commonly known to be associated with strong vortices or backflows at the outflow boundary. Extensive numerical experiments are presented for a range of Reynolds numbers to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed algorithm for this class of flows.</div></div><div><br></div><div><div>In the second part of this thesis, we present a numerical algorithm within the phase-field framework for simulating three-dimensional (3D) incompressible two-phase flows in flow domains with one homogeneous direction. In this numerical method, we represent the flow variables using Fourier spectral expansions along the homogeneous direction and C0 spectral element expansions in the other directions. This is followed by using fast Fourier transforms so that the solution to the 3D problem is obtained by solving a set of decoupled equations about the Fourier modes for each flow variable. The computations for solving these decoupled equations are performed in parallel to effciently simulate the 3D two-phase</div><div>ows. Extensive numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the performance and the capabilities of the scheme in simulating this class of flows.</div></div>

Este trabalho é continuação da linha de pesquisa em escoamentos de alta velocidade, aerados, conduzida no departamento de Hidráulica e Saneamento da EESC/USP. O trabalho tem cunho experimental visando elucidar aspectos de enlaçamento de ar pela água, como resultado das flutuações turbulentas do escoamento do líquido. Medidas de vazão de ar e água, perfis de velocidade do escoamento líquido, perfis de concentração de ar no escoamento bifásico, perfis de intensidade turbulenta, comprimentos de jatos no salto sobre o aerador, foram efetuados com o fito de testar modelos que quantificam o enlaçamento de ar. Propostas básicas de quantificação de vazões de ar são apresentadas, fundamentadas em propostas da literatura, que mostram coerência entre vazões medidas diretamente e vazões estimadas. A metodologia desenvolvida no presente estudo permite obter adequadamente as grandezas relevantes para escoamentos aerados de alta velocidade. Quanto aos resultados obtidos, quando confrontados com os da literatura, indicam que há maiores incertezas para as propostas que envolvem principalmente as intensidades turbulentas. / This work is continuation of the research line in high-speed flows, aerations, lead in the Hydraulics Department and Sanitation of the EESC/USP. The work has experimental matrix aiming elucidate at to elucidate aspects of enlacement of air for water, as a result of the fluctuations turbulent of the flow of the liquid. Measures of outflow of air and water, speed profiles of the liquid flow, air concentration profiles in the two-phase flow, profiles of turbulent intensity, lengths of jets on the aerators, had been effected with look if to test models that quantify the enlacement of air. Flows quantification basic proposals of air are presented, based in proposals of the literature, which show coherence between flows measured directly and estimate flows. The methodology developed at study present allows obtaining adequately the important greatnesses for high-speed aerations flows. Regarding the obtained results, when confronted with the of the literature, indicate that exist larger uncertainties for the proposals that involve mostly the turbulent intensities.

This thesis provides a historical materialist policy analysis of the diversity of capital-account policies (CAPs) deployed in Brazil and South Africa over the period 2008-2014. Facing relatively similar patterns of cross-border money-capital movements and comparable financial challenges, these two emerging capitalist countries implemented radically different CAPs: while Brazil deployed a remarkable array of measures (capital controls on inflows, foreign exchange interventions, regulations of derivatives contracts, etc.), the policy response in South Africa was much more orthodox, and mainly characterised by the further liberalisation of outflows. The historical materialist policy analysis combines a variety of theoretical literatures (including historical materialism, financial and economic geography, and post-Keynesian economics) and research methods (qualitative research interviews, policy document analysis, and macroeconomic analysis). It examines the drivers of the CAP policy-making process in Brazil and South Africa in the light of (1) the social constitution and the class character of the capitalist state and money-capital, conceived of as particular 'moments' in the totality of capitalist social relations from which they are constituted; (2) the historical-geographical specificity of the Brazilian and South African capitalist development trajectory, (3) the unfolding of the broader social struggles of the working class, and (4) with specific reference to the highly uneven geographies of the contemporary global financial system. I claim that in both countries, post-crisis CAPs were not part of a political attempt at restructuring the state and altering class relations. By contrast, CAPs were instrumental in reproducing particular modes of managing class relations and accumulation in a changing international context, though in a precarious and temporary manner. Post-crisis CAPs involved the creation, enhancement, and adaptation of financial and monetary regulatory capacity (involving both drastic innovation and more subtle forms of change) to deepen the CAPs deployed in the previous decade, while coping with their (perceived) worst consequences: sustaining the historically-specific mode of mediating the global movement of money-capital in each country required the uneven re-articulation of state power. The thesis contributes to the literatures on the distinctively Marxian-inspired approaches to development, the uneven geographies of finance/financialisation, materialist state theory, and to the debates about more progressive forms of financial governance in emerging capitalist countries. It also shows the limits of the concept of 'policy space' as an analytical device, chiefly due to its almost complete blindness to class and to the active role of the working class in shaping policies. This results in difficulties in envisaging progressive policy alternatives, that is, policies that do not only aim at stabilising capital accumulation and facilitating the reproduction of key capitalist social forms in the short term.

The first part of this thesis investigates the mixing of ambient fluid into axisymmetric high Reynolds number gravity currents. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted in which small scale gravity currents travelled along a wedge shaped channel with an increasing width in the downstream direction. The channel was filled with fresh water and the current was generated using saline solution introduced either by a rapid release of a known finite volume from behind a lock gate or by pumping at a constant rate into the apex of the channel. The distribution and evolution of the density of the flow with distance downstream was measured using a light attenuation technique. Additional experiments were performed by injecting parcels of dye in different regions of the flow in order to visualise the motion of fluid in and surrounding the gravity current. Unlike currents introduced by the release of a finite volume of fluid, where most mixing occurs in the head of the flow, currents produced from a steady source develop a steady tail region behind the front which is also found to entrain a significant amount of ambient fluid. In both types of current, we estimate the fraction of displaced ambient fluid that is entrained into the flow. We then derive a new class of self-similar solutions for gravity currents produced from a finite volume release of fluid. The second part of this thesis develops the experimental method of measuring mixing using light attenuation to investigate the mixing of liquid in a vertical conduit which results from a continuous stream of high Reynolds number gas bubbles. The experiments identify that the mixing in the wake of the bubbles leads to a net dispersive transport along the conduit. The process provides an explanation for the heat transfer within a volcanic conduit in the case of a gas-slug flow regime as occurs in the near surface region of volcanic conduits connected to surface lava lakes. We derive a theoretical model to estimate the heat flux associated with such a system using the empirical law for the dispersive mixing. The predicted heat flux associated with the bubbles is found to be comparable to the heat loss at the surface of lava lakes associated with radiative and convective heat loss. Given values for the gas flux, the lake area and the temperature at the surface of the lake, the model enables new predictions for the size of the volcanic conduit.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-17T12:09:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mazzi_CaioTorres_M.pdf: 2544919 bytes, checksum: 35405220fb3c10b12a04d8fcbe0628ba (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Este trabalho busca integrar dois importantes ramos da literatura pós-keynesiana: a chamada abordagem stock-flow consistent (SFC), cujas origens estão em trabalhos como Godley e Cripps (1983) e Godley (1997), entre outros; e a teoria do crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos (BPC), inaugurada no modelo seminal de Thirlwall (1979). Após uma breve revisão bibliográfica de ambas as literaturas, são construídas um modelo stock-flow consistent com crescimento e restrição externa. Utiliza-se o modelo para simular diferentes tipos de fluxos internacionais de capitais, que demonstram ter efeitos bastante distintos sobre a economia local / Abstract: The aim of this dissertation is the integration of two important branches of the Post Keynesian literature: the so called stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach, with origins that can be found in Godley and Cripps (1983) and Godley (1997), among others; and the theory of balance of payments constrained growth (BPC), initiated in the seminal model of Thirlwall (1979). After a brief review of both literatures, a stock-flow consistent model with growth and a balance of payments constraint is developed. The model is used to simulate international capital flows of various kinds, which demonstrate to have very different effects on the local economy / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

O processo de reestruturação produtiva envolveu implicações tanto na morfologia, quanto dinâmica de vida em inúmeras cidades, gerando consideráveis mudanças nos fluxos interurbanos. É sobre eles que assentamos nossas análises. No Brasil, as dinâmicas que definiram nosso recorte temporal implantaram-se mais incisivamente através de uma série de reformulações políticas que caracterizaram o início da década de 1990. Elas implicaram, entre outras coisas, no acirramento da concorrência entre empresas e em sua maior liberdade de deslocamento pelo território, sendo a indústria a força impulsionadora de inúmeras transformações espaciais. Para compreender a relação entre reestruturação produtiva e mudanças na rede urbana, definimos como recorte territorial as cidades de Itu, Salto e Sorocaba. A análise dos fluxos interurbanos dessas cidades fornece elementos que reafirmam a ideia de que as mudanças espaciais geradas a partir da reestruturação produtiva não implicaram em uma perda de importância da capital do Estado, São Paulo. Ao invés disso, houve um reforço de sua centralidade, bem como de outras que lhe dão suporte, como é o caso de Sorocaba, em torno da qual um novo aglomerado se conformou. Essa cidade ampliou suas funções na rede urbana e atualmente integra o amplo conjunto metropolitano formado pela expansão da metrópole paulistana, a cidade-região. Concomitantemente a essa reafirmação de determinadas centralidades, há também o aumento da importância de fluxos que se estabelecem entre cidades de mesmo nível hierárquico, o que, atrelado a outros aspectos, assinala o desenvolvimento de uma rede urbana mais complexa, pela multiplicidade de interações que se estabelecem. Essa aparente contradição no contexto da rede urbana e sua relação com o processo de reestruturação produtiva é outro ponto que buscamos entender. Ela nos remete à análise das mudanças econômicas e nas estratégias empresariais para a concentração capitalista durante as últimas décadas. Isso porque consideramos os fluxos econômicos como os principais definidores da rede urbana. / The restructuring process involved implications so much in the morphology, as much in the dynamics of life in many cities, generating considerable changes in intercity flows. Its about them that we seat our analysis. In Brazil, the dynamics that defined our time frame established themselves more sharply through a series of reformulations policies that characterized the early 1990s. They led, among other things, to the increased of the competition between companies and their greater freedom of movement throughout the territory, being the industry the driving force of numerous spatial transformations. To understand the relation between changes in industrial structure and urban network, we defined as territorial clipping the cities of Itu, Salto and Sorocaba. The analysis of the intercity flows of these cities provides elements that reaffirm the idea that the spatial changes generated from the productive restructuring did not result in a loss of importance of the state capital, São Paulo. Instead, there was an increase of its centrality, as well as others that give support to it, as is the case of Sorocaba, around which a new agglomerate has been conformed. This city strengthened its functions in urban network and, currently, integrates the broad metropolitan set formed by the expansion of the paulistana metropolis, the city-region. Concomitantly with this reaffirmation of certain centralities, there is also the increasing importance of flows established between cities of the same hierarchical level, which, linked to other aspects, marks the development of a more complex urban network, due the multiplicity of interactions that take place. This apparent contradiction in the context of the urban network and its relation with the restructuring process is another point that we seek to understand with this research. It remits us to the analysis of the economic and business strategies changes for the capitalist concentration during the recent decades. This is because we consider the economic flows as the main delineaters of the urban network.