AN ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION OFThaman Bastola, for the Doctor of Philosophy degree in Economics, presented on April 2, 2024, at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. TITLE: REMITTANCES IN NEPAL; LANDLOCKEDNESS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE MAJOR PROFESSOR: Dr. Sajal LahiriThis dissertation concentrates on two key economic areas: trade and remittances. Executing many empirical models using relevant data and estimation techniques on each of these topics, we provide some novel findings about trade in landlocked countries and micro-level determinants of remittances in a landlocked country. The international trade of landlocked countries is critical, experiencing adverse geographical effects for exporting or importing. The first paper of this dissertation focuses on analyzing the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on the trade of landlocked countries. We find the more significant positive impact that calls for a strategy to join a PTA to address poverty and speed up the growth process through trade in landlocked developing countries. The second paper attempts to determine the probability of remittances related to micro-socioeconomic factors in a landlocked country, Nepal. The results show that gender, caste and ethnicity, income, language, religion, household size, wealth, age, and employment affect the probability of domestic or foreign remittances. The third paper is an extension of the second one, which examines Nepal's extensive and intensive margins of remittances. Most variables exhibit an opposite sign for foreign remittances between the extensive and intensive margins. Groups of households that display a higher rate of migration receive lower amounts of foreign remittances and vice-versa. On the other hand, the results somewhat diverge for domestic remittances, such as wealth have a positive effect in both margins but gender have a opposite effect between two margins; even though many variables are statistically insignificant, either extensive or intensive margins of remittances.

This thesis focuses on learning from revealed preferences and their implications across operations management problems through an Inverse Problem perspective. For the first part of the thesis, we focus on decentralized platforms facilitating many-to-many matches between two sides of a marketplace. In the absence of direct matching, inefficiency in market outcomes can easily arise. For instance, popular supply agents may garner many units from the demand side, while other supply units may not receive any match. A central question for the platform is how to manage congestion and improve market outcomes. In Chapter One, we study the impact of a detail-free lever: the disclosure of information to agents on current competition levels. How large are the effects of this lever, and how do they affect overall market outcomes? We answer this question empirically. We partner with the largest service marketplace in Latin America, which sells non-exclusive labor market leads to workers. The key innovation in our approach is the proposal of a structural model that allows agents (workers) to respond to competitors through beliefs about competition at the lead level, which in turn implies an equilibrium at the platform level under the assumption of rational expectations. In this problem, we observe agents' best responses (actions), and from that, we need to infer their structural parameters. Identification follows from an exogenous intervention that changes agents' contextual information and the platform equilibrium. We then conduct counterfactual analyses to study the impact of signaling competition on workers' lead purchasing decisions, the platform's revenue, and the expected number of matches. We find that signaling competition is a powerful lever for the platform to reduce congestion, redirect demand, and ultimately improve the expected number of matches for the markets we analyze. For the second part of the thesis, we discuss both parametric and modelling approaches in Inverse Problems. In Chapter Two, we focus on Inverse Optimization Problems in a single-agent setting. Specifically, we study offline and online contextual optimization with feedback information, where instead of observing the loss, we observe, after-the-fact, the optimal action an oracle with full knowledge of the objective function would have taken. We aim to minimize regret, which is defined as the difference between our losses and the ones incurred by an all-knowing oracle. In the offline setting, the decision-maker has information available from past periods and needs to make one decision, while in the online setting, the decision-maker optimizes decisions dynamically over time based on a new set of feasible actions and contextual functions in each period. For the offline setting, we characterize the optimal minimax policy, establishing the performance that can be achieved as a function of the underlying geometry of the information induced by the data. In the online setting, we leverage this geometric characterization to optimize the cumulative regret. We develop an algorithm that yields the first regret bound for this problem, which is logarithmic in the time horizon. Furthermore, we show via simulation that our proposed algorithms outperform previous methods from the literature. Finally, in Chapter Three, we consider data-driven methods for general Inverse Problem formulations under a statistical framework (Statistical Inverse Problem-SIP) and demonstrate how Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithms can be used to solve linear SIP. We provide consistency and finite sample bounds for the excess risk. We exemplify the algorithm in the Functional Linear Regression setting with an empirical application in predicting illegal activity from bitcoin wallets. We also discuss additional applications and extensions.

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Pang Po Hing. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-71). / ABSTRACT --- p.i / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.ii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.v / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vi / Chapter CHAPTER 1: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter CHAPTER 2: --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Theoretical Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Properties of a Target Variable --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Money View --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1.3 --- Credit View --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Review --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Money View --- p.8 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Credit View --- p.10 / Chapter CHAPTER 3: --- METHODOLOGY --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Vector Autoregression (VAR) --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Estimation of the Reduced Form VAR Model --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- The Parameters Restrictions --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1.3 --- The Wald Statistics --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1.4 --- Impulse Response Functions --- p.24 / Chapter 3.1.5 --- Variance Decompositions --- p.25 / Chapter 3.1.6 --- Structural Decomposition --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2 --- Data Diagnoses --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Stationarity of the Time Series --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1.1 --- Definition of Stationarity --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1.2 --- The Unit Root Tests --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1.2a --- The Augmented Dickey and Fuller Tests --- p.27 / Chapter 3.2.1.2b --- The Phillips and Perron Tests --- p.29 / Chapter 3.2.1.2c --- Lag Lengths for the Unit Root Tests --- p.30 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Selecting the Order of the VAR Model --- p.31 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Tests for the Model Stability --- p.31 / Chapter 3.3 --- Estimation Procedures --- p.34 / Chapter CHAPTER 4: --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1 --- Results of the Data Diagnoses --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Results of the Unit Root Tests --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Lag Length of the VAR Model --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Results of the Likelihood Ratio Tests --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- Estimation of the Reduced Form VAR Model --- p.39 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Results of the Parameters Estimates --- p.39 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- The Wald Statistics --- p.43 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Variance Decompositions --- p.47 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Impulse Response Functions --- p.54 / Chapter CHAPTER 5: --- IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS --- p.62 / REFERENCES --- p.67 / APPENDICES --- p.72

Notable structural changes have taken place in the world sheepmeat market over the 1960-80 period. Imports into the major consuming countries of the EEC are declining as a result of changing tastes, higher import barriers and other factors. World exports have steadily increased however, and sales diversified into a number of alternative, expanding markets. Little quantitative information exists on these markets. An econometric model was constructed to analyse the changes on a global basis. The model covers production, consumption and trade in the main importing and exporting regions over a twenty one year period. These components form a dynamic, simultaneous system which solves for the world price. It allows the impact of changes in any particular market to be evaluated in terms of the effect on other markets and international prices. Simulation analysis is employed to test the effects of various shocks to the market, and to evaluate the impacts of certain policy changes, such as those recently implemented in the EEC. The changes are assessed against a Base simulation, which also provides a forecast of the market situation through the 1980's. From the conclusions various policy implications are drawn with respect to NZ's exports.

Dissertation (PhD) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Lucas critique states that if expectations are not explicitly dealt with, conventional econometric models are inappropriate for policy analyses, as their coefficients are not policy invariant. The inclusion of rational expectations in ·conventional model building has been the most common response to this critique. The concept of rational expectations has received several interpretations. In numerous studies, these expectations are associated with model consistent expectations in the sense that expectations and model solutions are identical. To derive a solution, these models require unique algorithms and assumptions regarding their terminal state, in particular when forward-looking expectations are present. An alternative that avoids these issues is the concept of weak rational expectations, which emphasises that expectation errors should not be systematic. Expectations are therefore formed on the basis of an underlying structure, but full knowledge of the model is not essential. The accommodation of this type of rational expectations is accomplished by means of an explicit specification of an expectations equation consistent with the macro econometric model's broad structure. The estimation of coefficients relating to expectations is achieved through an Instrumental Variable approach. In South Africa, monetary policy has been consistent and transparent in line with the recommendations of the De Kock Commission. This allows the modelling of the policy instrument of the South African Reserve Bank, i.e. the Bank rate, by means of a policy reaction function. Given this transparency in monetary policy, the accommodation of expectations of the Bank rate is essential in modelling the full impact of monetary policy and in avoiding the Lucas critique. This is accomplished through weak rational expectations, based on the reaction function of the Reserve Bank. The accommodation of expectations of a policy instrument also allows the modelling of anticipated and unanticipated policies as alternative assumptions regarding the expectations process can be made during simulations. Conventional econometric models emphasise the demand side of the economy, with equations focusing on private consumption, investment, exports and imports and possibly changes in inventories. In this study, particular emphasis in the model specification is also placed on the impact of monetary policy on government debt and debt servicing costs. Other dimensions of the model include the modelling of the money supply and balance of payments, short- and long-term interest rates, domestic prices, the exchange rate, the wage rate and employment as well as weakly rational expectations of inflation and the Bank rate. The model has been specified and estimated by usmg concepts such as cointegration and Error Correction modelling. Numerous tests, including the assessment of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error, have been employed to test the adequacy of the model. Similarly, tests are carried out to ensure weak rational expectations. Numerous simulations are carried out with the model and the results are compared to relevant alternative studies. The simulation results show that the reduction of inflation by means of only monetary policy could impose severe costs on the economy in terms of real sector volatility. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Lucas-kritiek beweer dat konvensionele ekonometriese modelle nie gebruik kan word vir beleidsontleding nie, aangesien dit nie voorsiening maak vir die verandering in verwagtings wanneer beleidsaanpassings gemaak word nie. Die insluiting van rasionele verwagtinge in konvensionele ekonometriese modelle is die mees algemene reaksie op die Lukas-kritiek. Ten einde die praktiese insluiting van rasionele verwagtings III ekonometriese modelbou te vergemaklik, word in hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van sogenaamde "swak rasionele verwagtings", wat slegs vereis dat verwagtingsfoute me sistematies moet wees nie. Die beraming van die koëffisiënte van die verwagtingsveranderlikes word gedoen met behulp van die Instrumentele Veranderlikes-benadering. Monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika was histories konsekwent en deursigtig in ooreenstemming met die aanbevelings van die De Kock Kommissie. Die beleidsinstrument van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank, naamlik die Bankkoers, kan gevolglik gemodelleer word met behulp van 'n beleidsreaksie-funksie. Ten einde die Lukas-kritiek te akkommodeer, moet verwagtings oor die Bankkoers egter ingesluit word wanneer die volle impak van monetêre beleid gemodelleer word. Dit word vermag met die insluiting van swak rasionele verwagtings, gebaseer op die reaksie-funksie van die Reserwebank. Sodoende kan die impak van verwagte en onverwagte beleidsaanpassings gesimuleer word. Konvensionele ekonometriese modelle beklemtoon die vraagkant van die ekonomie, met vergelykings vir verbruik, investering, invoere, uitvoere en moontlik die verandering in voorrade. In hierdie studie word daar ook klem geplaas op die impak van monetêre beleid op staatskuld en die koste van staatsskuld. Ander aspekte wat gemodelleer word, is die geldvoorraad en betalingsbalans, korttermyn- en langtermynrentekoerse, binnelandse pryse, die wisselkoers, loonkoerse en indiensneming, asook swak rasionele verwagtings van inflasie en die Bankkkoers. Die model is gespesifiseer en beraam met behulp van ko-integrasie en die gebruik van lang-en korttermynvergelykings. Die gebruiklike toetse is uitgevoer om die toereikendheid van die model te toets. Verskeie simulasies is uitgevoer met die model en die resultate is vergelyk met ander relevante studies. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat die verlaging van inflasie deur alleenlik gebruik te maak van monetêre beleid 'n swaar las op die ekonomie kan lê in terme van volatiliteit in die reële sektor.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation considers the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for the analysis of South African macroeconomic business cycle phenomena. It includes four separate, but interrelated parts, which follow a logical sequence. The rst part motivates the use of these models before establishing the theoretical foundations for these models. The theoretical foundations are accompanied by detailed derivations that are used to construct a model for a small open economy. The second part considers the properties of South African macroeconomic data that may be used to estimate the parameters in these models. It includes a discussion of the variables that may be included in such a model, as well as various methods that may be used to extract the business cycle. Thereafter, the sample size for the dataset is established, after investigating for possible structural breaks in the rst two moments of the data, using various univariate and multivariate techniques. The nal chapter of this part contains an investigation into the measures of core in ation, whereby a comparison of trimmed means, dynamic factor models and various wavelet decompositions are applied to data for South Africa. The third part considers the application of the dataset that was identi ed in part two, in a DSGE model that incorporates features that are typical of small open economies. It includes a discussion that relates to the role of the exchange rate in these models, which is found to contain key information. In addition, this part also includes a optimal policy investigation, which considers the reaction function of central bank. The nal part of this thesis considers more recent advances that have been applied to DSGE models for the South African economy. It includes an example of a nonlinear model that is estimated with the aid of a particle lter, which is then used for forecasting purposes. The forecasting results of both linear and nonlinear versions of the model are then compared with the results from various Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR models. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif oorweeg die gebruik van Dinamiese Stogastiese Algemene Ewewig (Engels: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)) modelle vir die analise van besigheidsiklus gebeure in die Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomie. Dit bestaan uit vier aparte dog onderling verwante dele wat in « logiese ontwikkeling vorm. Die eerste deel motiveer die gebruik van dié modelle en daarna word die teoretiese onderbou van die modelle daargestel. Die teoretiese onderbou word aangevul met gedetaileerde stappe van die a eiding van die verhoudings wat gebruik word om « model vir « klein oop ekonomie saam te stel. Die tweede deel oorweeg die eienskappe van Suid Afrikaanse makroekonomiese data wat relevant is vir « ekonometriese model in hierdie konteks. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die veranderlikes wat vir so « model gebruik kan word, asook « bespreking van die verskeie metodes wat gebruik kan word om die besigheidsiklus uit die data te identi seer. Die steekproefgrootte van die data word dan vasgestel, ná die moontlikheid van strukturele onderbrekings van tendens in die eerste en tweede momente van die data ondersoek is met behulp van verskeie enkel en meervoudige-veranderlike tegnieke. Die laaste hoofstuk van dié deel is « studie van verskeie maatstawwe van kern in asie (core in ation), waar « vergelyking getref word tussen die resultate van die volgende metodes toegepas op Suid Afrikaanse data: afgesnede gemiddeldes (trimmed means), dinamiese faktor modelle en verskeie golfvormige onderverdelings (wavelet decompositions). Die derde deel gebruik die datastel, wat in deel twee ontwikkel is, in die passing van « DSGE model wat die tipiese eienskappe van « klein oop ekonomie inkorporeer. Dit sluit « bespreking in van die rol van die wisselkoers in hierdie tipe modelle, en daar word empiries bevind dat die wisselkoers belangrike inligting bevat. Hierdie deel sluit ook « ondersoek in van optimale beleid in terme van die reaksie funksie van die sentrale bank. Die laaste deel van die proefskrif bestudeer die resultate van onlangse ontwikkellinge in DSGE modelle wat toegepas word op die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie. Dit sluit « voorbeeld van « nie-liniêre model wat met behulp van « partikel lter (particle lter) geskat word en gebruik word vir vooruitskattings. Die vooruitskattings uit beide die liniêre en nie-liniêre modelle word dan vergelyk met dié verkry uit verskeie Vektor

This thesis is a technical inquiry into remedies for high inflation. In its center there is the usual tradeoff between inflation aversion on the one hand and some benefit from inflation via Phillips curve effects on the other hand. Most remarkable and pioneering work for us is the famous Barro-Gordon model - see (Barro & Gordon 1983a) respectively (Barro & Gordon 1983b). Parts of this model form the basis of our work here. Though being well known the discretionary equilibrium is suboptimal the question arises how to overcome this. We will introduce four different models, each of them giving a different perspective and way of thinking. Each model shows a (sometimes slightly) different way a central banker might deliver lower inflation than the one shot Barro-Gordon game at a first glance would suggest. To cut a long story short we provide a number of reasons for believing that the purely discretionary equilibrium may be rarely observed in real life. Further the thesis provides new insights for derivative pricing theories. In particular, the potential role of financial markets and instruments will be a major focus. We investigate how such instruments can be used for monetary policy. On the contrary these financial securities have strong influence on the behavior of the central bank. Taking this into account in chapters 3 and 4 we come up with a new method of pricing inflation linked derivatives. The latter to the best of our knowledge has never been done before - (Persson, Persson & Svenson 2006), as one of very view economic works taking into account financial markets, is purely focused on the social planer's problem. A purely game theoretic approach is done in chapter 2 to change the original Barro-Gordon. Here we deviate from a purely rational and purely one period wise thinking. Finally in chapter 5 we model an asymmetric information situation where the central banker faces a trade off between his current objective on the one hand and benefit arising from not perfectly informed agents on the other hand. In that sense the central bank is also concerned about its reputation.

The paper analyses the relationship between succession and firm performance. Using a unique panel data set on a sample of roughly 4,000 Austrian family firms we examine empirically the impact of past succession as well as future succession plans on employment growth and investment behaviour. Analysing succession plans, we do not find a 'shadow of succession' effect. No significant difference in employment growth and investment behaviour is found between firms that plan to transfer the firm in the next ten years and those who do not. In contrast, past succession exerts a significant and positive employment growth effect which becomes stronger over time. The impact of past succession on investments is also positive but not significantly different from zero. Thus, our findings provide support for the existence of a positive employment shadow after a transfer, whereas the shadow of succession hypothesis has to be rejected prior to transition. (author's abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers SFB International Tax Coordination

Universal service is the focal point of the economic dilemma faced by the telecommunications industry. The advent of competition spurred by several regulatory rulings is forcing rates towards economic costs. It is feared that this movement or the erosion of the toll-to-local subsidy with concomitant increases in local prices severely threatens the concept of universal service. To adequately address these fears, accurate elasticity of demand estimates for telephone access are required. This thesis develops estimates of these demand elasticities for access. These estimates are derived consistently from an underlying theory of demand for access. Furthermore, the simultaneous access and class-of-service choice problems are addressed similarly. This consistent development facilitates model usage and interpretation. For example, the model provides the best available estimate for the size of the network externality. Taking into account the underlying demand theory and acknowledging the problems associated with the aggregated nature of the data set (census tract data from 1980 Census), a modified probit technique is developed to estimate the demand model. The estimation methodology is implemented using an iterative least square procedure. To analyze the reasonableness of the algorithm and procedure, a Monte Carlo study is performed. In addition, a jackknife technique is employed to estimate variances of coefficients when the standard measures are unavailable. The model results are used to analyze the effect of current policy decisions. For example, for a proposed doubling of access prices the demand for access elasticity is found to be quite small, about -.04. A welfare analysis is performed to discuss the costs and benefits associated with moving to cost-based rates. This analysis also provides the basis for rate recommendations to facilitate the transition to competition while attempting to preserve the concept of universal service.