This thesis consists of four essays that study the effect of demand and supply shocks (namely exchange rate shocks, policy shocks and oil price shocks) on the German automobile industry using time series analysis techniques; i.a. intervention analysis, (time-varying) VAR models, state space modeling and Kalman filtering. Chapter 2 investigates the degree of (EUR/USD) exchange rate susceptibility of the German automobile industry (and mechanical engineering industry). It is shown that – in contrast to well-known warnings by business representatives and politicians alike – an appreciation of the Euro does not necessarily cause German vehicle producing companies “pain” in the sense of an aggravated business climate (although the (quantity) effects on exports are as predicted by theory). Chapter 3 first of all deals with the effect of the global economic crisis on the German manufacturing sector in general and the German automobile industry in particular. Even more important, the influence of the scrapping scheme, that was introduced as part of the “Konjunkturpaket II” in 2009, is researched. Chapter 4 focusses on the role of (systematic) monetary policy as well as the automobile industry in the transmission of oil price shocks to the economy. Chapter 5 extends the results of chapter 4 by examining carefully the role of fuel-efficiency in explaining the different degrees of sensitivity of the vehicle industries in Germany, Japan and the US with regard to oil price shocks.

My dissertation consists of three chapters. In the first chapter, I analyze theeffect of the merger between American Airlines (AA) & US Airways (US) on market price and product quality. I use two complementary methodologies: difference-in-differences (DID) and merger simulation. Contrary to other results in the airline literature, the DID analysis shows that, overall, price has decreased as a result of themerger. While divestitures required as part of the merger had a strong price-reducing effect, the overall decrease involves non-divestiture markets as well. Interestingly, the decrease appears only in large airport-pair markets, whereas prices rose considerably in smaller ones. Effects on quality are mixed. The DID analysis shows that the merger reduced flight cancellations, increased flight delays, and had no effect on flight frequency or capacity overall. Using merger simulation, I find that the change in ownership leads to a 3% increase in price. The structural model performs betterin predicting the post-merger price if I allow the model to deviate from the Bertrand-Nash conduct. A 10% cost reduction due to the merger is able to predict the post-merger price quite well. When I incorporate a conduct parameter into the model, the required percentage of cost savings is lower. Given the divestiture and the subsequententry of low-cost carriers (LCCs), tacit collusion may break down. Thus both cost savings and reduced cooperation could explain a reduction in the price in the post-merger period.<div><br></div><div>In my second chapter, I analyze possible reasons why airline prices are higher inthe smaller markets compared to larger markets. In the literature, most of the studies ignore the fact that the smaller markets are different compared to larger markets in terms of the nature of competition. I find that a combination of lower competition, and lack of entry from low cost carriers (LCCs) are the reasons behind higher prices in the smaller city-pair markets. I show that price is substantially higher in a market with a fewer number of firms controlling for several other factors. My paper estimates the modified critical number of firms to be 5 and the critical value of the HHI to be .6.<br><div><br></div><div>In my third chapter, I study the effect of announcement of investment in research & development (R&D) on the value of a firm in the pharmaceutical industry. Three types of R&D by the pharmaceutical firms are considered for the analysis: acquisition of other smaller firms, internal investment in R&D, and collaborative investment in R&D. This chapter finds that few target specific characteristics and financial charac-teristics of the acquiring firm are important drivers of the abnormal returns around the announcement period.<br></div><div><br></div></div>

Neste trabalho, analisou-se o turismo (no período de baixa estação) do município de Ilhéus, Estado da Bahia. A avaliação da estrutura turística local foi realizada através de indicadores referentes às concepções de estoques de capital (físico, financeiro, humano, social e natural), das características do turista e de sua viagem, por meio da análise fatorial e análise de regressão. Os resultados dão informações importantes relacionadas aos produtos e serviços turísticos. Em média, a avaliação geral, ou satisfação total do turista foi considerada satisfatória. O item mais criticado foi "manifestações populares". As "amenidades ambientais" revelaram ser o atributo mais desejado e bem avaliado pelos visitantes. Das características dos turistas, foi possível traçar um perfil da demanda. Com relação ao estado de origem do visitante, observou-se uma distribuição equivalente procedente de unidades territoriais não litorâneas e próximas a Ilhéus. Os dados revelaram inter-relações entre alguns indicadores: a maioria dos visitantes é composta de indivíduos casados e adultos; grande parte possuí nível superior e renda relativamente alta. Das características da viagem dos turistas, é importante ressaltar algumas informações: do total dos visitantes, poucos foram influenciados pelas agências de viagem (8%) e propaganda e publicidade (4%), meios tradicionais de venda ou distribuição do produto e serviços turísticos. No que diz respeito ao motivo da viagem, 81% dos abordados afirmaram que vieram a Ilhéus a passeio/lazer, mas os indicadores referentes ao entretenimento/diversões foram os mais criticados. Outros resultados das análises econométricas acrescentam informações importantes. A análise fatorial resumiu 35 indicadores da estrutura turística de Ilhéus em 7 fatores. Os coeficientes do modelo de regressão linear, referentes aos fatores extraídos, revelaram que, quanto mais qualificada a estrutura turística, melhor a avaliação geral do visitante. O "fator 2 - Capital humano associado aos serviços de entretenimento" foi o de maior importância (peso) na nota geral. Os outros 6 fatores também contribuíram, significativamente, para a explicação da nota geral (ou avaliação geral) dada pelo turista aos produtos e serviços oferecidos. As análises revelam que, na baixa estação, o turismo local teve avaliação não muito boa. Portanto, a análise da estrutura turística de Ilhéus indica que a atividade necessita de maior investimento nos estoques de capitais, capazes de manter a procura e o crescimento do setor. / The study presents an analysis of the tourism industry in the county of Ilheus, Bahia State, Brazil. Local tourism structure was evaluated by using the concepts of capital stocks of the basic production factors (physical, financial, human, social, and natural) and by describing some personal characteristics of the tourists and some specification of the trip. Factorial and regression analyses were the utilized analytical tools. Tourist satisfaction was found to be reasonable in the overall evaluation of the sampled individuals. Among the attractions demanded by the tourist the most reproved item was 'popular manifestations'. The attribute 'environmental charm' was considered most desirable and scored best in the visitors' evaluation. Based on the characteristics of the tourists, a demand profile could be drawn. The visitors’ states of origin were distributed equally between inland territories and regions near Ilheus. Inter-relations were observed among some studied variables: the majority of visitors are adult and married and most of them have a university degree and a relatively high income. The characteristics of tourist trips revealed that among all visitors, few had been influenced by travel agencies (8%) and by advertisement and publicity (4%), the traditional means of selling tourist products and services. In most cases, tourists had come to Ilheus looking for fun and leisure, while the research showed that the most criticized items were precisely entertainment/amusement. Factorial analysis combined 35 items evaluated by the tourists into 7 factors. The coefficient of the linear regression model showed that the higher the qualification of the touristic structures, the better the overall evaluation of the tourists. Factor 2, called "human capital linked to entertainment services", was found to be most important (higher weight) in the overall score. The other six factors also contributed significantly to the explanation of the overall score (or overall evaluation) given by the tourists. It can be said that tourist structures in Ilheus need higher investments to increase capital stocks in order to maintain demand and growth of its tourist business.

Diversas metodologias são empregadas para realizar a análise de séries temporais, dentre as quais destaca-se o uso das redes neurais artificiais (RNA). Neste trabalho são utilizados quatro métodos para realizar previsão de séries temporais univariadas: os modelos ARIMAGARCH, RNA feedforward, RNA treinada com filtro de Kalman estendido (EKF) e RNA treinada com o filtro de Kalman unscented (UKF). Sendo que o uso de RNA-UKF é um avanço recente na área de sistemas de inteligência computacional. O uso de redes neurais treinadas com filtro de Kalman é uma metodologia que tem trazido bons resultados em uma ampla variedade de aplicações nas áreas comercial, militar e científica. Em 2002 aproximadamente 250 bilhões de dólares eram gerenciados em fundos de investimentos por modelos quantitativos (tais como lógica fuzzy, redes neurais, algoritmos genéticos, fractais e modelos de Markov). Desde 2006 estima-se que três em cada dez destes fundos utilizem estes modelos quantitativos. A capacidade das RNA em lidar com não linearidades é uma vantagem normalmente destacada quando são realizadas previsões de séries temporais. São apresentadas simulações de Monte Carlo que mostram a influência dos parâmetros dos modelos ARIMA-GARCH na predição de redes neurais artificiais do tipo feedforward, treinadas com o algoritmo de Levenberg-Marquardt. Pelos resultados obtidos verificou-se que a RNA feedforward realizou melhores previsões a medida que o parâmetro ligado a estacionariedade aumenta. Também é aplicada a teoria para construção de intervalos de predição (IP) e de confiança (IC) para RNA feedforward. As séries temporais analisadas são univariadas e compostas de dados reais do setor financeiro (Bradesco PN, Bradespar PN, Itausa PN e Itaú PN), setor de alimentos (Perdigão PN, Sadia PN, Saca da Soja de 60Kg e Saca de Açúcar de 50Kg), setor industrial (Marcopolo PN, Petrobrás PN, Embraer ON, Ripasa PN, Souza Cruz ON e Gerdau PN) e setor de serviços (Pão de Açúcar PN, Eletropaulo PNA, Eletrobras PNB, Brasil Telecom PN, Cesp PNA e Lojas Americanas PNA). Os resultados obtidos mostram que a RNA-UKF apresentou-se superior quando comparada com as técnicas concorrentes. / Many techologies has been applied to time series analysis, among these artifitial neural networks (RNA). In this work, four methods are used to univariate time series forecasting: ARIMA-GARCH, RNA feedforward, RNA trained using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and RNA trained using unscented Kalman filter (UKF). RNA-UKF is a recent method in computational intelligence field. The use of neural networks trained using Kalman filter is a methodology that has brought good results in a wide variety of applications such as commercial, military and scientific field. In 2002 approximately 250 billions of dollars were managed in investiment funds by quantitative models (such as fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms, fractals and Markov models). Since 2006 it is estimated that three in ten investiment funds use these quantitative models. The RNA power to deal with non linearities is a highlited advantage when time series forecasting are performed. This work presents Monte Carlo simulations showing the ARIMA-GARCH parameters influence in the feedforward artifitial neural networks predictions, trained with Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm. According to the results, RNA feedforward performed best forecasts to the extent stacionarity parameter increase. Moreover, the theory for confidence (IC) e prediction (IP) intervals are applied to RNA feedforward. This work presents analysis to real data univariate time series from financial sector (Bradesco PN, Bradespar PN, Itausa PN and Itaú PN), food sector (Perdigão PN, Sadia PN, Soybean 60Kg and Sugar 50Kg), factory sector (Marcopolo PN, Petrobrás PN, Embraer ON, Ripasa PN, Souza Cruz ON and Gerdau PN) and service sector (Pão de Açúcar PN, Eletropaulo PNA, Eletrobras PNB, Brasil Telecom PN, Cesp PNA and Lojas Americanas PNA). The results showed RNA-UKF upper hand when compared with the competitors techniques.

Nation as a brand represents the intangible assets of a country, encompassing various dimensions such as politics, economics, culture, history, and technology. However, much of extant work in nation branding has been limited to the empirical investigations of its positioning and implementation for specific countries, while other scholarly works in nation branding are conceptual. Various factors associated with nation branding are discussed in the literature, but there is no organizing mechanism to connect these factors to explore the dynamics underlying nation branding. To fill this gap, this dissertation attempts to identify the relevant factors underlying the deployment of nation branding, and to develop models to assess the association among these factors. Hunt and Morgan's resource advantage theory serves as the theoretical foundation of this dissertation's framework. After establishing panel data models that link the factors of building and developing the nation brand, the strategic implications of nation branding are discussed. Archival data were used for economic factors such as economic development, tourism, export, and inward foreign investment, and cultural, political, infrastructural, and geographical factors. The primary data were collected for qualitative factors perceived reputable brand and perceived reputable industry. The Anholt-GfK Roper's 2008 Nation Brands IndexSM was incorporated into the model as a moderating variable to test its impact on the relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variables. A total of 24 nations were analyzed to build and validate the models. This dissertation makes several contributions to the nation branding literature. First, it clarifies the definition of nation brand and nation branding. Second, it builds a predictive econometric model to connect the critical determinant and outcome factors of nation branding. Finally, it discusses nation branding strategies in terms of resource advantage theory and provides crucial insights on the development and management of a nation brand that can be used by researchers, marketing managers, and stakeholders of the nation brand to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of nation branding.

Os recentes superávits comerciais da economia brasileira transformaram a percepção de elevada fragilidade das contas externas do país que se verificou nas duas últimas décadas e meia. Diante desta nova realidade, parece pertinente avaliarmos quais foram os determinantes deste saldo comercial a partir dos elementos tradicionais da literatura, como a taxa de câmbio, os preços externos e a renda doméstica e mundial. Com este propósito, foram estimadas equações de longo prazo para as exportações e importações brasileiras para que se pudesse avaliar as elasticidades do comércio de bens e serviços não fatores do país. A metodologia utilizada foi a de cointegração proposta por Johansen (1988) e Johansen e Juselius (1990). A estimação das elasticidades se dividiu em dois períodos: 1980-1998 e 1980-2005. Com tal divisão pretendemos capturar os efeitos da mudança do regime cambial de 1999 sobre as contas externas. Além disso, foram realizados uma série de testes recursivos para se checar a estabilidade, quebras e a robustez da cointegração destas variáveis. Os resultados obtidos foram satisfatórios para as elasticidades, condizentes com trabalhos anteriores, mas agregaram a informação da elasticidade para o conjunto de bens e serviços não fatores e não apenas de bens. Além disso, foram identificadas uma série de quebras no período de estimação, em geral associadas a períodos críticos de mudanças de política econômica. Finalmente, foi possível identificar que após a flutuação cambial houve um aumento da elasticidade renda externa das exportações e uma redução da elasticidade-câmbio de exportações e importações. O trabalho conclui sugerindo que os elevados saldos comerciais são resultantes de uma particular combinação de preços externos favoráveis, câmbio real depreciado e renda mundial elevada, além de alguma mudança estrutural associada à maior resposta das exportações à renda mundial, provavelmente por conta do resgate das vantagens comparativas brasileiras na esteira da mudança do regime cambial em 1999. / The recent Brazilian trade surpluses changed the perception about the fragility of the external accounts of the Brazilian economy that lasted for the last two and a half decades. In the face of this new reality it seem reasonable to evaluate which were the determinants of this trade surplus, taking into account the traditional variables of the external accounts literature, like the currency, the external prices, the domestic and foreign output. With this purpose we estimated long run equations for exports and imports for evaluating the external trade of goods and services elasticities. The methodology applied was that proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) that take for the account of cointegration methods. The estimation was divided into two periods: 1980-1998 and 1980-2005. With such a division, we intend to capture the effects of the change in the Brazilian foreign exchange regime introduced in 1999 over the external accounts. Further, we tested these models recursively to check for stability, breaks and cointegration power. The results were satisfactory in terms of the elasticities, in line with previous jobs on this field, but we add the information on the aggregated goods and services elasticities, usually estimated only for the goods markets. Further we identified many brakes over the estimation sample, generally associated with macroeconomic policy changes. Finally it was possible to identify that after the floating of the Brazilian currency the external income elasticity of the exports jumped to a higher level and the currency elasticities of both exports and imports showed some reduction. We conclude by saying that the huge trade surpluses recently observed are the result of a particular combination of external favorable prices, a depreciated real exchange and a high level of world income growth, as far as some structural change associated with the bigger responsiveness of the exports to the world growth, probably due to the resurge in the Brazilian external comparative advantages in the face of the currency flotation of 1999.

Topic of this master thesis is to examine whether weather related mood changes are in correlation with price of stocks. Thesis focuses on middle Europe stock market indexes PX, SAX, ATX and DAX. Research is based on relationship between daily cloud cover and development of the indexes form 1995 to 2012. It also focuses on comparison of several different models, especially models of seemingly unrelated regressions. It shows that indexes PX and ATX are significantly negatively correlated with local cloud cover. Use of seemingly unrelated regressions offers slightly better results. The relation between cloud cover and stock indexes is not strong enough to be used for weather based speculations

Neste trabalho, analisou-se o turismo (no período de baixa estação) do município de Ilhéus, Estado da Bahia. A avaliação da estrutura turística local foi realizada através de indicadores referentes às concepções de estoques de capital (físico, financeiro, humano, social e natural), das características do turista e de sua viagem, por meio da análise fatorial e análise de regressão. Os resultados dão informações importantes relacionadas aos produtos e serviços turísticos. Em média, a avaliação geral, ou satisfação total do turista foi considerada satisfatória. O item mais criticado foi "manifestações populares". As "amenidades ambientais" revelaram ser o atributo mais desejado e bem avaliado pelos visitantes. Das características dos turistas, foi possível traçar um perfil da demanda. Com relação ao estado de origem do visitante, observou-se uma distribuição equivalente procedente de unidades territoriais não litorâneas e próximas a Ilhéus. Os dados revelaram inter-relações entre alguns indicadores: a maioria dos visitantes é composta de indivíduos casados e adultos; grande parte possuí nível superior e renda relativamente alta. Das características da viagem dos turistas, é importante ressaltar algumas informações: do total dos visitantes, poucos foram influenciados pelas agências de viagem (8%) e propaganda e publicidade (4%), meios tradicionais de venda ou distribuição do produto e serviços turísticos. No que diz respeito ao motivo da viagem, 81% dos abordados afirmaram que vieram a Ilhéus a passeio/lazer, mas os indicadores referentes ao entretenimento/diversões foram os mais criticados. Outros resultados das análises econométricas acrescentam informações importantes. A análise fatorial resumiu 35 indicadores da estrutura turística de Ilhéus em 7 fatores. Os coeficientes do modelo de regressão linear, referentes aos fatores extraídos, revelaram que, quanto mais qualificada a estrutura turística, melhor a avaliação geral do visitante. O "fator 2 – Capital humano associado aos serviços de entretenimento" foi o de maior importância (peso) na nota geral. Os outros 6 fatores também contribuíram, significativamente, para a explicação da nota geral (ou avaliação geral) dada pelo turista aos produtos e serviços oferecidos. As análises revelam que, na baixa estação, o turismo local teve avaliação não muito boa. Portanto, a análise da estrutura turística de Ilhéus indica que a atividade necessita de maior investimento nos estoques de capitais, capazes de manter a procura e o crescimento do setor. / The study presents an analysis of the tourism industry in the county of Ilheus, Bahia State, Brazil. Local tourism structure was evaluated by using the concepts of capital stocks of the basic production factors (physical, financial, human, social, and natural) and by describing some personal characteristics of the tourists and some specification of the trip. Factorial and regression analyses were the utilized analytical tools. Tourist satisfaction was found to be reasonable in the overall evaluation of the sampled individuals. Among the attractions demanded by the tourist the most reproved item was 'popular manifestations'. The attribute 'environmental charm' was considered most desirable and scored best in the visitors' evaluation. Based on the characteristics of the tourists, a demand profile could be drawn. The visitors’ states of origin were distributed equally between inland territories and regions near Ilheus. Inter-relations were observed among some studied variables: the majority of visitors are adult and married and most of them have a university degree and a relatively high income. The characteristics of tourist trips revealed that among all visitors, few had been influenced by travel agencies (8%) and by advertisement and publicity (4%), the traditional means of selling tourist products and services. In most cases, tourists had come to Ilheus looking for fun and leisure, while the research showed that the most criticized items were precisely entertainment/amusement. Factorial analysis combined 35 items evaluated by the tourists into 7 factors. The coefficient of the linear regression model showed that the higher the qualification of the touristic structures, the better the overall evaluation of the tourists. Factor 2, called "human capital linked to entertainment services", was found to be most important (higher weight) in the overall score. The other six factors also contributed significantly to the explanation of the overall score (or overall evaluation) given by the tourists. It can be said that tourist structures in Ilheus need higher investments to increase capital stocks in order to maintain demand and growth of its tourist business.

Universidade Federal do Cearà / Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar o aspecto das receitas municipais no cÃlculo do Ãndice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH).Inicialmente, faz-se uma explanaÃÃo sobre o Ãndice de Gini, mostrando-se a possibilidade concreta de um paÃs crescer economicamente sem necessariamente promover a distribuiÃÃo de renda. Faz-se tambÃm uma conceituaÃÃo sobre o IDH, mostrando-se a forma de cÃlculo e uma anÃlise dos nÃmeros de alguns paÃses, do Brasil, com uma anÃlise mais detalhada dos municÃpios do estado do CearÃ.Em um estudo empÃrico sobre os municÃpios do CearÃ, tendo como base as receitas municipais de 1995 a 1999, utiliza-se um modelo economÃtrico, com o qual conclui-se que o impacto de um choque na receita municipal à sentido com maior intensidade nos municÃpios que tÃm maior IDH e nos anos mais distantes da mediÃÃo do Ãndice, o que permite-se que a melhoria do IDH està relacionada à polÃticas de mÃdio e longo prazo, a fim de que haja um prazo de maturaÃÃo para obtenÃÃo de resultados, devendo ser essa uma das grandes preocupaÃÃes dos governantes pÃblicos. / The objective of this paper is to assess the aspect of the municipal revenues in calculating the Human Development Index (HDI). First, an explanation is given on the Gini Index showing the real possibility for a country to grow economically without necessarily promoting the distribution of income. A judgement is also made on the HDI, showing how to calculate it as well as an analysis of numbers of some countries, of Brazil, including a more detailed analysis of the municipalities in the State of CearÃ. In an empirical study of CearÃâs municipalities, an econometric model is used based on the 1995 to 1999 municipalitiesâ revenues. With that mode we conclude that the impact of a shock in the municipal revenue is more intensely felt in those municipalities that have a higher HDI and in the years farther away from the index measuring. Hence, we can say that the improvement in the HDI is related to medium and long-term policies so that there is a maturation period to obtain results and this should be a concern of the public rulers.

A globalização desencadeou uma maior aproximação econômica entre os indivíduos, as empresas e os governos do mundo todo. Desta forma, de maneira muito rápida são executadas decisões de investimentos por parte dos aplicadores financeiros por todo o mundo na busca de governos ou empresas que se disponham a pagar “mais juros” sobre o capital financeiro aplicado. Assim, a globalização financeira e a abertura econômica estão intimamente relacionadas com o câmbio e a política monetária. A essência dessa relação foi desenvolvida na década de 1960 por Mundell e Fleming como a "Trindade Impossível", a qual destaca que é possível atingir apenas dois dos três desejáveis objetivos de uma nação: a integração financeira, a estabilidade da taxa de câmbio e a autonomia monetária. Neste contexto, o objetivo central deste estudo será analisar a influência da globalização financeira na determinação da taxa de juros brasileira, observando o atual contexto da globalização financeira no mundo e no Brasil e as interações entre os mercados monetário e de câmbio. Então, este estudo é de grande relevância porque a globalização fez com que o globo deixasse de ser apenas uma figura astronômica, mas sim um território no qual todos se encontram relacionados e há uma gama de relações que passam desapercebidas no dia a dia, que aqui serão evidenciadas. Para isso, há cinco partes neste estudo. A primeira parte apresentará uma introdução do tema; a parte dois abordará a globalização financeira, desde uma visão geral sobre o assunto até os seus efeitos no mundo e no Brasil; a parte três apresentará as interações dos mercados monetário e de câmbio; a parte quatro apresentará a Trindade Impossível; a parte cinco avaliará aspectos que afetam a política monetária brasileira, a partir de um estudo econométrico, que explica a taxa de juros do Brasil como função de alguns parâmetros endógenos e exógenos; e a parte seis destacará as principais conclusões sobre a influência da globalização financeira na determinação da taxa de juros do Brasil, especialmente nos últimos quinze anos da história brasileira. / Globalization approached individuals, businesses and governments economically around the world. In this way, financial investors take decisions searching for governments or companies which are willing to pay "more interests" for the financial capital invested. Thus, financial globalization and economic liberalization are closely related to the exchange rate and monetary policy. The essence of this relationship was developed in the 1960s by Mundell and Fleming as the "Trinity Impossible", that means to achieve only two out of three desirable goals of a nation: financial integration, exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy. In this context, the main goal of this study is to analyze the influence of financial globalization that affects Brazilian interest rates, observing the current context of financial globalization in the world and in Brazil; and the interactions between monetary and exchange markets. So, this study is very important because globalization has made the globe not just an astronomical figure, but a territory in which everybody is related, and there is an range of relationships unrealized every day. That will become apparent in this study. For that, there are five parts in this study. Part one will be an introduction of the theme; part two will deal with financial globalization, from an overview of the subject to its effects in the world and in Brazil; part three will present the interactions of monetary and exchange markets; part four will present the Trinity Impossible; part five will evaluate aspects that affect Brazilian monetary policy, by a econometric model, which explains Brazilian interest rates as a function of some endogenous and exogenous parameters; and part six will highlight the main findings on the influence of financial globalization that affects Brazilian interest rates, especially in the last fifteen years in Brazilian history.