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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

Valoração econômica dos serviços recreativos e ecoturísticos em unidade de conservação: o caso do Parque Nacional da Tijuca (Rio de Janeiro - RJ) / Economic valuation of ecotour and recreational services in protected natural area: the case of Tijuca National Park (Rio de Janeiro, RJ

Ricardo Rodrigues Malta 27 March 2008 (has links)
Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / O objetivo principal da presente dissertação foi realizar a valoração econômico-ambiental dos serviços recreativos e ecoturísticos de um dos setores do Parque Nacional da Tijuca, a Floresta da Tijuca, localizada na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Para tanto, foram aplicados dois métodos: o método de valoração contingente, para estimar as disposições do visitante a pagar para visitar o recurso natural Floresta da Tijuca, e a doar uma quantia anual para um fundo de conservação e preservação da referida unidade; e o método do custo de viagem, para calcular o custo de viagem do visitante, ou seja, os gastos com deslocamento, alimentação, compras etc, para poder visitar a área natural. O levantamento dos dados primários foi efetuado no período de janeiro a dezembro de 2006, através de 228 entrevistas aplicadas em dois locais: Largo do Bom Retiro e Meu Recanto. O valor da disposição a pagar média foi estimado em R$ 6,16 por visita. Considerando que a Floresta da Tijuca recebe um contingente de 340 mil visitantes/ano, e que 58,77% dos visitantes entrevistados estavam dispostos a pagar uma taxa de ingresso para visitá-la, o Valor de Uso Recreativo e Ecoturístico estimado foi de R$ 1.230.878,80/ano. O valor da disposição a doar média foi de R$ 48,31/ano, e considerando que 31,14% dos visitantes entrevistados estavam dispostos a doar essa quantia anual, o Valor de Existência da Floresta da Tijuca foi estimado em R$ 5.114.869,50/ano. Somando-se os dois valores chegamos ao Valor Econômico Parcial da Floresta da Tijuca (VEp) estimado em R$ 6.345.748,30/ano. O custo de viagem médio foi de R$ 47,14 por visita, o que representa um Valor de Uso Recreativo e Ecoturístico de R$ 16.028.594,36/ano, obtido pela abordagem individual do método. Pela abordagem por zona, o Valor de Uso Recreativo e Ecoturístico da Floresta da Tijuca foi estimado em R$ 16.340.485,81/ano. Tais valores demonstram a importância sócio-ambiental da Floresta da Tijuca para a população da cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Através dos resultados obtidos foi possível: espacializar em mapas a atratividade que o Parque Nacional da Tijuca exerce sobre os locais de origem dos visitantes moradores da cidade do Rio de Janeiro; caracterizar o perfil da visita e dos visitantes da Floresta da Tijuca, através de suas percepções e reações sobre o ambiente visitado; e propor medidas e recomendações para a gestão do uso público no Parque Nacional da Tijuca. / The main objective of this dissertation was to perform the environmental and economic evaluation of the ecotour and recreational services of the one sector of the Tijuca National Park, the Tijuca Forest, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro. For which, two methods were applied: the contingent valuation method to estimate the willingness to pay to visit the natural resource "Tijuca Forest" by visitors and to donate a sum yearly for a conservation and preservation fund; and travel cost method, the travel cost from the visitor, spending displacement, food, purchases, etc., to be able to visit the natural area. The survey of primary data was conducted from January to December 2006, through 228 interviews applied in two places: Largo do Bom Retiro and Meu Recanto. The average value of the willingness to pay was estimated to be R$ 6,16 per visit. Whereas the Tijuca Forest receives a quota of 340 thousand visitors per year, and that 58,77% of interviewed visitors were willing to pay a fee for admission to visit it, the value of ecotour and recreational use was estimated to be R$ 1.230.878,80/year. The average value of the willingness to donate was estimated to be R$ 48,31/year, and considering that 31,14% of interviewed visitors were willing to donate that amount annually, the value of the Tijuca Forest existence was estimated to be R$ 5.114.869,50/year. Adding up the two values to get a partial economic value of the Tijuca Forest estimated at R$ 6.345.748,30/year. The average travel cost was R$ 47,14 per visit, which represents a value of ecotour and recreational use was estimated at R$ 16.028.594,36/year, obtained by the individual approach of the method. For the approach by area, the value of ecotour and recreational use of the Tijuca Forest was estimated at R$ 16.340.485,81/year. Such values demonstrate the environmental and social importance of the Tijuca Forest to the Rio de Janeiros population. Through the results was possible: map the "attractiveness" that the Tijuca National Park exercises on the place of origin of visitors residents of the city of Rio de Janeiro; characterize the profile of the visit and visitors of the Tijuca Forest, through of their perceptions and reactions on the environment visited; and propose measures and recommendations for the public use management in Tijuca National Park.
32

Review of the Contingent Valuation Method: Experiences of its application in protected areas of Latin America and the Caribbean / Revisión del método de valoración contingente: experiencias de la aplicación en áreas protegidas de América Latina y el Caribe

Garzón, Lina Paola 10 April 2018 (has links)
The environmental goods and services cannot be valued through markets economically defined. Therefore, it has been necessary to implement methodologies such as contingent valuation for this purpose. This method was proposed 66 years ago and it has been widely used in different fields such as conservation of protected areas. The aim of this article is to provide a theoretical review of the contingent valuation method and to show experiences of its application in the assessment of Protected Areas in Latin America. In the sixties and seventies contingent valuation began to acquire greater importance for estimates of non-use values. Then, there was a cross-disciplinary integration of elements to strengthen the development of surveys and in the nineties appeared a criticism of its validity .Moreover, contingent valuation studies in Latin American countries have had positive results in determining the willingness to pay for recreational value, environmental services value, social benefits and public management of protected areas. / Los bienes y servicios ambientales no pueden ser valorados económicamente a través de mercados definidos, por lo que ha sido necesario la implementación de metodologías como la valoración contingente para dicho fin. Este método fue planteado hace 66 años y desde entonces ha sido ampliamente empleado en diversos campos como la conservación de áreas protegidas. El presente artículo hace una revisión teórica del método de valoración contingente y de las experiencias de su aplicación en la valoración de áreas protegidas en América Latina.En los años sesenta y setenta la valoración contingente comenzó a adquirir más importancia para la estimaciones de valores de no uso; posteriormente hubo una integración de elementos transdisciplinares para fortalecer la elaboración de encuestas y en los años noventa surgieron críticas sobre su validez. Asimismo, los estudios de valoración contingente en países latinoamericanos han tenido resultados positivos en la determinación de la disposición a pagar por aspectos como valor recreativo, valor de servicios ambientales, beneficios sociales y gestión pública de espacios protegidos.
33

TRATAMENTO DE RESÍDUOS SÓLIDOS URBANOS COM APROVEITAMENTO ENERGÉTICO: AVALIAÇÃO ECONÔMICA ENTRE AS TECNOLOGIAS DE DIGESTÃO ANAERÓBIA E INCINERAÇÃO / Municipal Solid Waste as a Source of Energy: Economic Assessment Comparing Anaerobic Digestion and Incineration Technologies

Clauber Barão Leite 12 December 2016 (has links)
Duas questões da sociedade do século XXI podem ser destacadas: a grande geração de resíduos; a carência por sistemas de tratamento adequado desses resíduos; e a crescente demanda por energia. A busca por alternativas para lidar com essas questões vem mobilizando os setores público e privado no sentido de explorar soluções ainda não praticadas na maior parte do mundo em desenvolvimento. A Política Nacional de Resíduos Sólidos (PNRS), instituída pela Lei nº 12.305/2010, estabeleceu um novo paradigma na gestão de resíduos sólidos no Brasil. Entre as mudanças apresentadas, uma das mais relevantes é a exclusividade de destinação de apenas rejeitos aos aterros sanitários, sendo os rejeitos entendidos como os resíduos que não mais apresentam possibilidade de tratamento. O cumprimento dessa lei irá requerer o estudo de alternativas de tratamento de resíduos gerados na fase anterior à sua disposição final. Entre as soluções possíveis está o seu aproveitamento energético, também previsto na PNRS. Nesse contexto, esta dissertação busca analisar duas tecnologias de tratamento de resíduos digestão anaeróbia e incineração e verificar suas respectivas viabilidades econômicas, tendo como objeto o cenário brasileiro, com foco especial no estado de São Paulo. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, respeitando-se as diretrizes da PNRS, entre os métodos de tratamento de resíduos sólidos urbanos analisadas, a digestão anaeróbia se mostrou mais viável do que a incineração para as regiões estudadas. Tais resultados tomaram como pressuposto que a PNRS é uma lei que deverá ser cumprida e exigida tal como se apresenta, e seu cumprimento implicará numa mudança significativa do modo como é feita a gestão de resíduos sólidos no país. Adicionalmente, as análises realizadas apontaram que, além dos aspectos econômicos, aspectos ambientais, sociais e culturais também são de fundamental importância na tomada de decisão por uma opção tecnológica adequada dos RSU. / Three issues of the XXI century society can be pointed out: The increasing volume of waste generation, the lack of adequate waste treatment systems and the increasing demand of energy. The search for alternatives to deal with these issues is calling the attention of both public and private agents who are engaged in exploring solutions not yet in place in most part of developing countries. The National Policy on Solid Waste (PNRS), established by the Law # 12,305/2010, set a new paradigm for the solid waste management in Brazil. Amongst the proposed changes, one of the most relevance is the destination of the so-called \"rejects\" to landfill, in which \"rejects\" stands for the residues that can no longer be processed. To abide by this law will require the analysis of alternatives for treating the residues prior to their final disposal. Amongst the possible solutions, there is the utilization of residues to generate electric energy. In this context, this master\'s thesis examines the two of the most used technologies in the developed world anaerobic digestion and incineration and evaluation their economic feasibility in the Brazilian scenario, particularly in the State of São Paulo. The analysis took as an assumption that the PNRS is a law that shall be enforced as it was stated, and that its compliance will require in a significant change in the way the solid waste management is done within the country. For the regions analyzed, our results showed that, under the PNRS requirements, the anaerobic digestion appeared to be more feasible than the incineration technology. Additionally, our work also indicates that, beyond the economic aspects, other issues such as environmental, social and cultural ones are fundamental for the decision making regarding the best technology applied in urban solid waste process.
34

Valoração econômica dos ativos ambientais provenientes da arborização da cidade de Manaus – AM

Silva, Lucivaldo Breves da 28 May 2014 (has links)
Submitted by Lúcia Brandão (lucia.elaine@live.com) on 2015-07-20T18:28:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Lucivaldo Breves da Silva.pdf: 1282060 bytes, checksum: 57d59b56ab76e5492f4ea3221fed507f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-07-22T13:34:45Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Lucivaldo Breves da Silva.pdf: 1282060 bytes, checksum: 57d59b56ab76e5492f4ea3221fed507f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-07-22T13:38:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Lucivaldo Breves da Silva.pdf: 1282060 bytes, checksum: 57d59b56ab76e5492f4ea3221fed507f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-22T13:38:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Lucivaldo Breves da Silva.pdf: 1282060 bytes, checksum: 57d59b56ab76e5492f4ea3221fed507f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-28 / Não informada / This research deals with the economic valuation of environmental assets derived from reforestation of the city of Manaus. Was drawn from the following guiding problematic: the urban population of the city of Manaus-AM realizes the value associated with environmental assets derived from reforestation of public thoroughfares of the city? The study was structured based on the following general objective: to show whether people realize the economic value associated with environmental assets arising from urban trees in Manaus. As an outcome, were outlined specific objectives of the work: check if there willingness to pay on the part of the respondents with regard to urban areas of Manaus; determine the value of willingness to pay for the environmental benefits of urban trees in Manaus; relate cause effect of socioeconomic variable in relation to the value of willingness to pay estimated. Was taken as a starting point two hypotheses: H0: the population of Manaus did not realize the economic value of environmental assets derived from reforestation of the city of Manaus (WTP = 0); H1: the population of Manaus realize the economic value of environmental assets derived from reforestation of the city of Manaus (WTP ≠ 0). To estimate the DAP questionnaires to a group of 270 respondents, applied the six administrative districts of the city of Manaus-AM, involving selected aged above 18 years were applied. The WTP values suggested were estimated based on a pre-test in which the respondent stipulated the monetary value that would be willing to pay. The estimate of DAP was made from the use of linear models probability (MPL), and logistical probit (model Iogit), as well as logit model. As for the results, it was found that the population perceives the economic value associated with environmental assets arising from urban trees in Manaus, with a median value of willingness to pay for the environmental benefits of urban trees of R $ 39.53 monthly, for interviewee. The findings also showed that among all variables considered, only age was introduced as a determinant for the willingness of respondents to accept the DAP. / Esta pesquisa trata da valoração econômica de ativos ambientais provenientes da arborização da cidade de Manaus, AM. Foi elaborada a partir da seguinte problemática norteadora: a população urbana da cidade de Manaus-AM percebe o valor associado aos ativos ambientais proveniente da arborização dos logradouros público da cidade? O estudo foi estruturado com base no seguinte objetivo geral: evidenciar se a população percebe o valor econômico associado aos ativos ambientais decorrentes da arborização urbana da cidade de Manaus. Como desdobramento, foram delineados como objetivos específicos do trabalho: verificar se existia disposição a pagar, por parte dos entrevistados no que diz respeito à arborização urbana da cidade de Manaus; determinar o valor da disposição a pagar pelos benefícios ambientais da arborização urbana na cidade de Manaus; relacionar a causa efeito da variável socioeconômica em relação ao valor de disposição a pagar estimado. Tomou-se como ponto de partida duas hipóteses: H0: a população de Manaus não percebe valor econômico dos ativos ambientais provenientes da arborização da cidade de Manaus (disposição a pagar = 0); H1: a população de Manaus percebe valor econômico dos ativos ambientais provenientes da arborização da cidade de Manaus (disposição a pagar ≠0). Para estimar o DAP foram aplicados questionários a um grupo de 270 entrevistados, aplicados nas seis zonas administrativas da cidade de Manaus-AM, envolvendo pessoas selecionadas na faixa etária acima de 18 anos. Os valores de DAP sugeridos foram estimados com base num pré-teste, no qual o entrevistado estipulou o valor monetário que estaria disposto a pagar. A estimativa de DAP foi feita a partir do emprego dos modelos de probabilidade linear (MPL), probit e logístico (Iogit model), bem como o modelo LOGIT. Quanto aos resultados, constatou-se que a população percebe o valor econômico associado aos ativos ambientais decorrentes da arborização urbana da cidade de Manaus, sendo o valor mediano da disposição a pagar pelos benefícios ambientais da arborização urbana de R$ 39,53 mensal, por entrevistado. Os achados também evidenciaram que dentre todas as variáveis consideradas, somente a idade apresentou-se como determinante para a disposição dos pesquisados em aceitar a DAP.
35

Ocenění Divadla Oskara Nedbala Tábor / The Valuation of the Oskar Nedbal Theatre in Tabor

Kubíčková, Klára January 2011 (has links)
This master's thesis deals with the valuation of cultural institution the Oskar Nedbal Theatre in Tabor and its aim is to estimate the value of this theatre to 30th June 2012 for the purpose of its founder the South Bohemian Region and compare this value with a subsidy paid to the theatre as a contributory organization. The value of the organization is determined by the method of contingent valuation based on the question related to people's willingness to pay for the preservation of the theatre and supplemented by Victor S. Yocco method for measuring three factors of the hypothetical value. The issue of cultural institutions valuation is not yet much explored area and mainly in the Czech Republic has not yet been comprehensively worked out and this thesis offers a practical view on one of the possible methods of valuing cultural goods and organizations.
36

Ocenění Husitského muzea v Táboře / The Valuation of the Hussite Museum in Tábor

Kubíčková, Markéta January 2011 (has links)
This master's thesis deals with the valuation of cultural institutions. Its aim is to estimate the value of cultural contributory organization Hussite Museum in Tabor to 30 th June 2012 for the purpose of its founder, which is the Ministry of Culture of the Czech Republic, and then compare this value with a subsidy paid from the state budget. For this purpose the forecast of population of the Czech Republic and the Tabor region and the forecast of attendance of Hussite Museum in 2012 is made. The value of the organization is determined by the method of contingent valuation based on the questions related to WTP and WTA and supplemented by Victor S. Yocco method for measuring three factors of the hypothetical value. The paper aims to describe the issue of cultural institutions valuation as complex as possible, because this issue has not yet been comprehensively worked out and in the Czech environment it is not yet much explored area.
37

Valoración económica del patrimonio natural: las áreas naturales protegidas

Novoa Goicochea, Zaniel I. 10 April 2018 (has links)
Economic Valuation of the natural patrimony: Protected Natural AreasThis paper offers some knowledge about the utility of Economic Valuation of Assets out of  market methods, to allow management in general and as a guide to the planning of natural areas with valuable ecologic and landscaping aspects. Here, I show the importance of the Protected Natural Areas (ANP) in the national economy and their economic value. I describe the most used techniques in the valuation of ANPs with special attention to the direct using values through the application of cost of travel and contingent valuation methods.As an example of the use of these techniques, I present the application results at the Private Conservation Area-El Cañoncillo Natural Forest, with the objective to analyze the pertinence of the economic valuation by the adoption of conservation practices. / El presente artículo brinda conocimientos sobre la utilidad de los métodos de valoración económica de los bienes sin mercado, tanto para su gestión en general como para que sirva de guía para la planificación de áreas naturales ecológica y paisajísticamente valiosas en particular. Muestra la importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas (ANP) en la economía nacional y su valoración económica. Se describen las técnicas más usadas en la valoración de las ANP, con especial atención en los valores de uso directo a través de la aplicación de métodos de costo de viaje y de valoración contingente (CVVC).Como ejemplo de uso y potencial de estas técnicas se presentan los resultados de su aplicación en el Área de Conservación Privada Bosque Natural El Cañoncillo, con el objetivo de analizar la viabilidad de la valoración económica por medio de la adopción de prácticas de conservación.
38

L'affectation des biens à l'utilité publique : Contribution à la théorie générale du domaine public / The affectation of the properties in the public utility : Contribution to the general theory of the public domain

Saugez, Helene 01 June 2012 (has links)
Le droit public des biens est en pleine mutation. Les mouvements affectent principalement la définition de lapropriété publique et celle du domaine public. Au cœur de ces notions se trouve l’affectation des biens à l’utilitépublique. En effet, cette dernière est directement liée au domaine public puisqu’elle constitue un critère dereconnaissance de l’appartenance d’un bien au domaine public. Le premier remède à la crise fut l’adoption de laréforme législative de 2006 aboutissant au Code général de la propriété des personnes publiques.L’affectation est relativement mise en avant au sein de ce Code. La réforme demeure, cependant, superficielle. Eneffet, une logique différente de celle de la propriété aurait dû prévaloir pour résoudre les enjeux majeurs de cettecrise. C’est en démontrant que la notion d’affectation, autonome par rapport à celle de la propriété publique, doitrester un élément fondamental de reconnaissance du domaine public, ce dernier devant être réduit à l’essentiel. Mais,elle doit surtout conduire, une fois libérée du critère organique, à une meilleure valorisation des propriétés publiques.Aujourd’hui, des biens affectés à l’utilité publique appartiennent à des personnes privées. Ils ne font certes pluspartie du domaine public mais demeurent pourtant soumis à l’application d’un régime juridique protecteur,assimilable aux règles de la domanialité publique.In fine, la protection de l’affectation s’envisage en dehors de la propriété publique, tout en conciliant la satisfactionde l’intérêt général avec les impératifs économiques. / The public law of the properties is in full transformation. The movements affect mainly the definition of the publicproperty and that of the public domain. In the heart of these notions is the affectation of the properties in the publicutility. Indeed, this last one is directly bound to the public domain. The first remedy in the crisis was the adoption ofthe legislative reform of 2006 ending in the general Code of the property of the public persons.The affectation is relatively emphasis within this Code. The reform remains, however, superficial. Indeed, a logicdifferent from that of the property should have prevailed to resolve the major stakes in this crisis. Whiledemonstrating the notion of affectation, autonomous with regard to that of the public property, has to remain afundamental element of recognition of the public domain, this last one that must be reduced to the main part. But, itespecially has to lead, once freed from the organic criterion, in a better valuation of the public properties.Today, properties allocated to the public utility belong to private persons. They are not certainly a part any more ofthe public domain but remain nevertheless subdued with care of a protective legal regime, comparable to the rules ofthe public domaniality.At the end, the protection of the affectation envisages except the public property, while reconciling the satisfactionof the general interest with the economic imperatives.
39

Valor econômico de visitação do parque "Phillipe Westin Cabral de Vasconcelos" da Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP). / Economic visitation value of "Phillipe Westin Cabral de Vasconcelos" Park, “Luiz of Queiroz” College of Agriculture (ESALQ), University of São Paulo (USP).

González, Moisés Villalba 17 January 2005 (has links)
O objetivo principal da presente pesquisa foi estimar o valor monetário de visitação do Parque "PHILLIPE WESTIN CABRAL DE VASCONCELOS" e adjacências da ESALQ/ USP localizado no Município de Piracicaba do Estado de São Paulo. Para tanto, foi aplicado o método de valoração contingente, adotando-se o modelo de referendo com distribuição de probabilidade logística. O levantamento de dados foi efetuado no período de agosto a setembro de 2004, realizando-se 207 entrevistas, extraindo-se uma amostra para aproveitamento de 202 observações. O valor médio da disposição a pagar foi estimado em R$ 14,53 por mês. O beneficio econômico total foi estimado em R$ 37.487,40 por mês, considerando o numero total estimado de 2.580 visitantes mensais. Tais valores demonstram o considerável beneficio econômico que os atributos do Parque da ESALQ/ USP geram para toda a população local. Tais resultados podem ser utilizados para auxiliar no planejamento de políticas de visitação ordenada do lugar, além de auxiliar na justificativa do investimento na manutenção e preservação do lugar. O estudo constatou os motivos para não aceitação do valor de pagamento mensal. O valor sugerido, a restrição orçamentária e a imputação de que a manutenção e preservação de áreas naturais publicas é responsabilidade do governo, são algumas das principais razões. / The main objective of the present research was to estimate the monetary value of visitation of Park "PHILLIPE WESTIN CABRAL OF VASCONCELOS" and adjacencies of ESALQ/USP located in the City of Piracicaba, State of São Paulo. For which, the method of contingent valuation was applied, adopting the model countersignature with distribution of logistic probability. The data-collected was over the period between August and September 2004. The sample totaled 207 interviews, out of which, 202 were used in the estimation procedures. The average value of the willingness to pay was estimated to be R$ 14,53 per month. The total economic benefit was calculated to be R$ 37.487,40 per month considering a total monthly visitation of 2.580. Such values demonstrate a considerable economic benefit that Park of ESALQ/USP generates for all its visitors. Such results can be used to assist in the planning of visitation policies and to justify the investment in the Park’s maintenance and preservation. Also, the main reasons for payment refusal were: suggested value; the income restriction; and the perception that the maintenance and preservation of public natural areas are responsibility of the government.
40

Assessing reservoir performance and modeling risk using real options

Singh, Harpreet 02 August 2012 (has links)
Reservoir economic performance is based upon future cash flows which can be generated from a reservoir. Future cash flows are a function of hydrocarbon volumetric flow rates which a reservoir can produce, and the market conditions. Both of these functions of future cash flows are associated with uncertainties. There is uncertainty associated in estimates of future hydrocarbon flow rates due to uncertainty in geological model, limited availability and type of data, and the complexities involved in the reservoir modeling process. The second source of uncertainty associated with future cash flows come from changing oil prices, rate of return etc., which are all functions of market dynamics. Robust integration of these two sources of uncertainty, i.e. future hydrocarbon flow rates and market dynamics, in a model to predict cash flows from a reservoir is an essential part of risk assessment, but a difficult task. Current practices to assess a reservoir’s economic performance by using Deterministic Cash Flow (DCF) methods have been unsuccessful in their predictions because of lack in parametric capability to robustly and completely incorporate these both types of uncertainties. This thesis presents a procedure which accounts for uncertainty in hydrocarbon production forecasts due to incomplete geologic information, and a novel real options methodology to assess the project economics for upstream petroleum industry. The modeling approach entails determining future hydrocarbon production rates due to incomplete geologic information with and without secondary information. The price of hydrocarbons is modeled separately, and the costs to produce them are determined based on market dynamics. A real options methodology is used to assess the effective cash flows from the reservoir, and hence, to determine the project economics. This methodology associates realistic probabilities, which are quantified using the method’s parameters, with benefits and costs. The results from this methodology are compared against the results from DCF methodology to examine if the real options methodology can identify some hidden potential of a reservoir’s performance which DCF might not be able to uncover. This methodology is then applied to various case studies and strategies for planning and decision making. / text

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