Introdução - Os custos para o tratamento da doença arterial coronariana (DAC) são altos em todo o mundo. Foi realizada uma análise post hoc de custo-efetividade de três estratégias terapêuticas para DAC multiarterial. Métodos - De maio de 1995 a maio de 2000, um total de 611 pacientes foram aleatoriamente designados para CRM (n = 203), ICP (n = 205) ou TM (n = 203). Este estudo de análise de custos baseou-se na perspectiva do Sistema Público de Saúde. Os custos iniciais de procedimentos e acompanhamento de medicamentos, exames cardiológicos e hospitalizações por complicações foram calculados após a randomização. Anos de vida e anos de vida ajustados pela qualidade (QALY) foram usados como medidas de eficácia. As razões de custo-efetividade incremental (RCEI) foram obtidas usando métodos de bootstrap não paramétricos com 5.000 replicações. Resultados - Os custos iniciais do procedimento foram menores para o TM. No entanto, os custos acumulados de 5 anos foram menores para a CRM. Em comparação com a linha de base, as 3 opções de tratamento produziram melhorias significativas no QALY. Após 5 anos, a ICP e a CRM tiveram melhores resultados de QALY em comparação com o TM. Os resultados da RCEI favoreceram a CRM e a ICP quando comparadas ao TM, já a ICP em relação à CRM foi mais custo-efetiva em 61% para limiares até 3 PIB per capita por QALY. Por outro lado, a análise de sensibilidade mostrou o TM como a terapia preferida em comparação com a CRM e ICP, na análise considerando custos mais elevados. Conclusão - No seguimento de 5 anos, a ICP e CRM mostraram ser os tratamentos com QALYs cumulativos mais altos entre pacientes com DAC multiarterial quando comparados com TM. Além disso, apesar dos custos iniciais serem mais elevados, a comparação de custo-efetividade após 5 anos de acompanhamento entre os 3 tratamentos mostrou que ambas as intervenções (CRM e ICP) são estratégias custo-efetivas em comparação com a TM / Background. The costs for treating coronary artery disease (CAD) are high worldwide. We performed a post hoc analysis of cost-effectiveness of 3 therapeutic strategies for multivessel CAD. Methods. From May 1995 to May 2000, a total of 611 patients were randomly assigned to CABG (n=203), PCI (n=205), or MT (n=203). This cost analysis study was based on the perspective of the Public Health Care System. Initial procedural and follow-up costs for medications, cardiology examinations, and hospitalizations for complications were calculated after randomization. Life-years and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were used as effectiveness measures. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were obtained by using nonparametric bootstrapping methods with 5000 resamples. Results. Initial procedural costs were lower for MT. However, the subsequent 5-year cumulative costs were lower for CABG. Compared with baseline, the 3 treatment options produced significant improvements in QALY. After 5 years, PCI and CABG had better QALY results compared with MT. The ICER results favored CRM and PCI when compared to the TM, since the PCI in relation to the CRM was more costeffective in 61% for the thresholds up to 3 GDP per capita per QALY. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis showed MT as the preferred therapy compared with CABG and PCI, in the analysis considering higher costs. Conclusion. At 5-year follow-up, the 3 treatment options yielded improvements in quality of life, with comparable and acceptable costs. However, despite higher initial costs, the comparison of costeffectiveness after 5 years of follow-up among the 3 treatments showed both interventions (CABG and PCI) to be cost-effective strategies compared with MT

Introdução - Os custos para o tratamento da doença arterial coronariana (DAC) são altos em todo o mundo. Foi realizada uma análise post hoc de custo-efetividade de três estratégias terapêuticas para DAC multiarterial. Métodos - De maio de 1995 a maio de 2000, um total de 611 pacientes foram aleatoriamente designados para CRM (n = 203), ICP (n = 205) ou TM (n = 203). Este estudo de análise de custos baseou-se na perspectiva do Sistema Público de Saúde. Os custos iniciais de procedimentos e acompanhamento de medicamentos, exames cardiológicos e hospitalizações por complicações foram calculados após a randomização. Anos de vida e anos de vida ajustados pela qualidade (QALY) foram usados como medidas de eficácia. As razões de custo-efetividade incremental (RCEI) foram obtidas usando métodos de bootstrap não paramétricos com 5.000 replicações. Resultados - Os custos iniciais do procedimento foram menores para o TM. No entanto, os custos acumulados de 5 anos foram menores para a CRM. Em comparação com a linha de base, as 3 opções de tratamento produziram melhorias significativas no QALY. Após 5 anos, a ICP e a CRM tiveram melhores resultados de QALY em comparação com o TM. Os resultados da RCEI favoreceram a CRM e a ICP quando comparadas ao TM, já a ICP em relação à CRM foi mais custo-efetiva em 61% para limiares até 3 PIB per capita por QALY. Por outro lado, a análise de sensibilidade mostrou o TM como a terapia preferida em comparação com a CRM e ICP, na análise considerando custos mais elevados. Conclusão - No seguimento de 5 anos, a ICP e CRM mostraram ser os tratamentos com QALYs cumulativos mais altos entre pacientes com DAC multiarterial quando comparados com TM. Além disso, apesar dos custos iniciais serem mais elevados, a comparação de custo-efetividade após 5 anos de acompanhamento entre os 3 tratamentos mostrou que ambas as intervenções (CRM e ICP) são estratégias custo-efetivas em comparação com a TM / Background. The costs for treating coronary artery disease (CAD) are high worldwide. We performed a post hoc analysis of cost-effectiveness of 3 therapeutic strategies for multivessel CAD. Methods. From May 1995 to May 2000, a total of 611 patients were randomly assigned to CABG (n=203), PCI (n=205), or MT (n=203). This cost analysis study was based on the perspective of the Public Health Care System. Initial procedural and follow-up costs for medications, cardiology examinations, and hospitalizations for complications were calculated after randomization. Life-years and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were used as effectiveness measures. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were obtained by using nonparametric bootstrapping methods with 5000 resamples. Results. Initial procedural costs were lower for MT. However, the subsequent 5-year cumulative costs were lower for CABG. Compared with baseline, the 3 treatment options produced significant improvements in QALY. After 5 years, PCI and CABG had better QALY results compared with MT. The ICER results favored CRM and PCI when compared to the TM, since the PCI in relation to the CRM was more costeffective in 61% for the thresholds up to 3 GDP per capita per QALY. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis showed MT as the preferred therapy compared with CABG and PCI, in the analysis considering higher costs. Conclusion. At 5-year follow-up, the 3 treatment options yielded improvements in quality of life, with comparable and acceptable costs. However, despite higher initial costs, the comparison of costeffectiveness after 5 years of follow-up among the 3 treatments showed both interventions (CABG and PCI) to be cost-effective strategies compared with MT

Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-04T12:36:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010 / Nas últimas décadas, os gastos crescentes no setor saúde vêm preocupando diversos países, em especial aqueles cuja atenção à saúde é garantida pelo setor público. A grande pressão pela incorporação de tecnologias cada vez mais caras, além de impactar no orçamento dos países, produz restrição ao acesso dos serviços de saúde, visto que não é possível garantir todas as intervenções a todos. Diante desta situação, técnicas para a racionalização dos gastos, tais como as análises econômicas em saúde, são utilizadas na tentativa de maximizar a saúde, mas resguardando a viabilidade financeira dos sistemas públicos de saúde. Países desenvolvidos com forte financiamento público, assim como Austrália, Canadá e Reino Unido têm empregado cada vez mais estas ferramentas para a tomada de decisão acerca da incorporação de novas tecnologias. O Brasil, na última década, também tem empreendido esforços para a adoção de critérios de custo-efetividade, tanto na entrada de medicamentos no mercado privado, com a alteração da lei de registro e com a criação da Câmara de Regulação do Mercado de Medicamentos (CMED), quanto com o estabelecimento de uma Comissão de Incorporação de Tecnologias do Ministério da Saúde (CITEC). As decisões da CITEC são subsidiadas por estudos desenvolvidos pela área de Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde (ATS) do Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia (DECIT) do Ministério da Saúde. Neste aspecto, as Agências Nacionais de Vigilância Sanitária e de Saúde Suplementar também instituíram áreas de ATS para responder as suas demandas. E, apesar do avanço na institucionalização de áreas que utilizam análises econômicas na incorporação de tecnologias, ainda há uma fragilidade institucional nas etapas seguintes do ciclo de vida destas. O País também carece de profissionais capacitados e padece de uma desorganização neste campo causa da principalmente pela sobreposição de atividades e atribuições das áreas que realizam a ATS no governo federal. Ademais, para que as análises econômicas em saúde sejam realmente úteis na tomada de decisão é imprescindível a definição de um limite custo-efetividade para o Brasil. / In recent decades, increasing spending in the health sector is worrying many countries, particularly those whose health care is guaranteed by the public sector. The big push for the incorporation of technologies increasingly expensive is impacting the budgets of countries and producing a restriction on access to health services, since we cannot guarantee all interventions for everybody. Facing this situation, techniques for the rationalization of expenditures, such as health economic analysis, are used in an attempt to maximize health, but protecting the financial viability of public health systems. Developed countries with strong public support, such as Australia, Canada and the UK have progressively more used this tool for decision making regarding the incorporation of new technologies. Brazil, more recently, has also made efforts to adopt criteria of cost-effectiveness, both at the entrance of drugs in the private market, with the adjustment of the law of register and the establishment of the Board of Market Regulation of Medicines (CMED) and the Commission of Technology Incorporation of the Ministry of Health (CITEC). The decisions of CITEC are subsidized by studies undertaken by the area of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) at Department of Science and Technology (DECIT) of the Ministry of Health. The Brazilian Health Surveillance Agency and Brazilian National Private Health Insurance Agency also established areas of HTA to answer to their demands. Despite advances in the institutionalization of areas that use economic analysis in the incorporation of technologies, there is fragility in the following stages of the life cycle of these. The country also lacks qualified professionals and suffers from a disruption in this field mainly caused by overlapping of activities and tasks of the areas that hold the HTA in the Federal Government. Moreover, for the health economic analyses are really useful in decision making is essential to define threshold costeffectiveness for Brazil.

Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous considérons plusieurs problèmes d'estimation de paramètre de dimension finie pour les séquences de Markov dans l'asymptotique des grands échantillons. Le comportement asymptotique des estimateurs bayésiens et les estimateurs obtenus par la méthode des moments sont décrits. Nous montrons que sous les conditions de régularité ces estimateurs sont consistants et asymptotiquement normaux et que l'estimateur bayésien est asymptotiquement efficace. Les estimateur-processus du maximum de vraisemblance un-pas et deux-pas sont étudiés. Ces estimateurs nous permettent de construire des estimateurs asymptotiquement efficaces sur la base de certainsestimateurs préliminaires, par exemple, les estimateurs obtenus par la méthode des moments ou l'estimateur deBayes et la structure de l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance un-pas. Nous proposons notamment des processus autorégressifs non linéaires comme exemple et nous illustrons les propriétés de ces estimateurs à l'aide de simulations numériques. Dans la deuxième partie, nous donnons les applications de processus de Markov en économie de la santé. Nous comparons les modèles de Markov homogènes et non-homogènes pour l'analyse coût-efficacité de l'utilisation depansements transparents contenant un gel de gluconate de chlorhexidine par rapport aux pansements transparents standard. Le pansement antimicrobien protège les accès vasculaire centrale et réduit le risque de bactériémies liées aux cathéters. L'impact de l'approche de modélisation sur la décision d'adopter des pansements antimicrobiens pour les patients gravement malades est discuté. / In the first part of this dissertation we consider several problems of finite-dimensional parameter estimation for Markov sequences in the asymptotics of large samples. The asymptotic behavior of the Bayesian estimators and the estimators of the method of moments are described. It is shown that under regularity conditions these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. We show that the Bayesian estimator is asymptotically efficient. The one-step and two-step maximum likelihood estimator-processes are studied. These estimators allow us to construct the asymptotically efficient estimators based on some preliminary estimators, say, the estimators of the method of moments or Bayes estimator and the one-step maximum likelihood estimator structure. We propose particular non-linear autoregressive processes as examples and we illustrate the properties of these estimators with the help of numerical simulations. In the second part we give theapplications of Markov processes in health economics. We compare homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov models for cost-effectiveness analysis of routine use of transparent dressings containing a chlorhexidine gluconate gel pad versus standard transparent dressings. The antimicrobial dressing protects central vascular accesses reducing the risk of catheter-related bloodstream infections. The impact of the modeling approach on the decision of adopting antimicrobialdressings for critically-ill patients is discussed.

The growing demand for clean water has led to the adoption of the EU Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60 EC). New legislation has a major impact on the water management and the national economy and provides numerous requirements, including "good status" of all water bodies. The Framework Directive also implies the need for an economic analysis of the optimal process to achieve good status by using the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The application of this method in water management is struggling with a number of methodological complications. One of the affected areas in the Czech Republic is the catchment of the Orlik Reservoir that faces excessive eutrophication. Eutrophication is caused by excessive introduction of phosphorus. The main sources of phosphorus are municipal wastewater, aquaculture and agriculture. As illustrated by professional research mentioned in this work and the actual processing of CEA of the catchment of the Orlik Reservoir, a wide range of methodological problems can be avoided by using appropriate tools. This thesis also presents that achieving of good status of the catchment would require annual cost of CZK 602 million. The most significant cost bearers are according to the CEA fisheries and municipalities.

Au Canada, il y a environ 21 000 décès et 84 069 hospitalisations liés à un infarctus du myocarde (IM) par année, ce qui représente environ 1,27 milliard de dollars canadiens ($ CA) en coûts directs reliés aux traitements aigus et chroniques. Parmi ces traitements, la double thérapie antiplaquettaire (DAPT) a été démontrée efficace pour diminuer le risque de complications reliées à l’IM. Cependant, malgré ces avantages cliniques, la persistance au traitement observée dans la vie réelle au Québec avec le DAPT à base de ticagrélor est inférieure à celle des autres inhibiteurs du récepteur P2Y12. L’objectif de ce projet était d’élaborer un modèle décisionnel permettant d’évaluer le rapport coût-utilité du ticagrélor-DAPT dans des conditions de persistance imparfaite chez les patients québécois souffrant d’IM et ainsi, déterminer si une intervention à l’échelle de la province visant à accroître la persistance serait justifiable. Un arbre de décision, modélisant l’évolution des patients atteints d’un IM sur une période d’un an, a été développé pour comparer quatre durées de persistance avec une observance parfaite avec le ticagrélor-DAPT (3, 6, 9 et 12 mois) à une stratégie d’observance parfaite avec 12 mois de clopidogrel-DAPT (traitement de référence). Trois événements cliniques ont été modélisés : l’IM récurent, le décès cardiovasculaire et le saignement majeur. Les probabilités de ces événements ont été extraites d’essais cliniques randomisés pertinents en utilisant les courbes de survie de Kaplan-Meier publiées. Les utilités nécessaires pour calculer les QALYs ont été dérivées de la littérature. Les coûts ont été estimés à partir de la littérature canadienne et de la liste des médicaments de la Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec et ont été exprimés en $ CA de 2018. L’analyse principale consistait en une simulation probabiliste de Monte-Carlo. À un coût moyen par année de vie gagnée ajustée pour la qualité de vie (QALY) de 43 398 $ CA, les résultats de l’analyse principale ont démontré que 3 mois de ticagrélor-DAPT avait 59,31 % des chances d’être rentable à un seuil décisionnel (« willingness-to-pay ») de 50 000 $ CA par QALY. De plus, les analyses de sensibilité démontrent que le rapport coût-efficacité du ticagrélor-DAPT était sensible au coût du décès cardiovasculaire et au coût du ticagrélor. En présumant un coût de ticagrélor compatible avec un médicament générique, 3 mois, 6 mois et 9 mois de ticagrélor-DAPT étaient dominants et 12 mois de ticagrélor-DAPT avaient une forte probabilité d'être rentable (98,8 %). Cette analyse en arrive aussi à la conclusion que 3 mois de ticagrélor-DAPT sont probablement rentables par rapport à 12 mois de clopidogrel-DAPT. Avec un niveau de preuve de modéré à fort, nous concluons donc qu'aucune intervention particulière n'est justifiée en ce qui concerne la politique provinciale pour améliorer le taux de persistance au ticagrélor après un IM. / In Canada, there are approximately 21,000 deaths and 84,069 hospitalizations related to myocardial infarction (MI) per year, representing approximately Can$1.27 billion in direct costs related to acute and chronic care. Despite the demonstrated health benefits of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after an MI, observed real-world persistence to treatment with ticagrelor-based DAPT in Québec is lower than that observed with other P2Y12 receptor inhibitors. The objective of this project was to develop a decision-making model to evaluate the cost-utility ratio of ticagrelor-DAPT under conditions of imperfect persistence in Quebec patients suffering from MI, and thus to determine whether a province-wide intervention to increase persistence would be justifiable. A decision tree describing the patient course in the first year following an MI was developed in order to compare four different durations of persistence with perfect adherence with ticagrelor-DAPT (3, 6, 9 and 12 months) to perfect adherence with a 12-month regimen clopidogrel-DAPT (reference treatment). Three clinical events were modeled: recurrent MI, cardiovascular death and major bleeding. The probabilities of these events were extracted from relevant randomized clinical trials using published Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The utilities needed to calculate the QALYs were derived from the literature. The costs were estimated from the Canadian literature and the list of medications from the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec and were expressed in Can$ 2018. The reference case analysis consisted of a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation. At a mean cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained of Can$43,398, the results of the base case analysis showed that 3 months of ticagrelor-DAPT had a 59.31% likelihood of being considered cost-effective using a willingness-to-pay threshold of Can$50,000/QALY. Moreover, the sensitivity analyses showed that the cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor-DAPT was sensitive to the cost of cardiovascular death and the cost of ticagrelor. Assuming a cost of ticagrelor compatible with a generic drug, the 4 durations of persistence with ticagrelor-DAPT are almost guaranteed to be profitable. When a generic cost of ticagrelor was assumed, 3 months, 6 months and 9 months of ticagrelor-DAPT were dominant and 12 months of ticagrelor-DAPT were highly likely to be cost-effective (98.8%). This analysis also conclude that as little as 3 months of ticagrelor-DAPT is likely to be cost-effective compared to 12 months of clopidogrel-DAPT. With a moderate to strong level of evidence, we therefore conclude that no specific intervention is warranted at the provincial policy level to improve persistence rate with ticagrelor treatment after MI.

Tesis por compendio / [ES] El brote de Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 representó un reto para la economía, la vida social y los servicios sanitarios. Justo cuando más se necesitaba la información para la planificación económica, los servicios de vigilancia y notificación no fueron capaces de ofrecer, a pesar de esfuerzos extraordinarios, datos consistentes, como así reconocieron los propios orga-nismos gubernamentales. Esta tesis incluye tres artículos publicados durante los brotes de COVID-19 y una investi-gación adicional fuera del conjunto de publicaciones. La investigación tiene como objetivo general proporcionar información a través de estimaciones alternativas. Para ello se han utilizado varias metodologías, entre ellas los modelos matemáticos de predicción epidemio-lógica, el Mejor Ajuste de Valores Relacionados (BARV), los análisis de diferentes encues-tas y la metodología bibliométrica, aprovechando u ofreciendo alternativas a los métodos bayesianos más complejos, las simulaciones de Monte Carlo o las cadenas de Markov, aun-que algunos datos obtenidos se apoyan parcialmente en estas metodologías. Cada artículo aborda un tema esencial relacionado con la pandemia COVID-19. La primera publicación se centra en los datos epidemiológicos básicos. Se refiere al primer brote de COVID-19, estimando su duración, incidencia, prevalencia, tasa de fallecimientos sobre infectados (IFR) y tasa de fallecimientos sobre casos (confirmados) (CFR). Como dato destacado de este trabajo, se previó que la seroprevalencia era demasiado baja para que la inmunidad de rebaño desempeñara algún papel. Aunque el valor obtenido fue aproxima-damente un 2% inferior al que demostró posteriormente un estudio poblacional (Instituto Carlos III), la conclusión sobre la inmunidad de rebaño no cambió, y los resultados confir-maron la idoneidad del enfoque. La segunda publicación se centró en las cuestiones legales y las noticias falsas, analizando la reticencia de la población a vacunarse, el impacto de las falsas noticas en estos comporta-mientos, las posibilidades legales de hacer obligatoria la vacuna y las posibles acciones contra los profesionales de la salud que publican noticias falsas. La principal conclusión fue que, aunque se podría encontrar una vía legal para la obligatoriedad de la vacunación, y para la persecución gubernamental de las noticias falsas, la opinión ciudadana parece prefe-rir que la administración no tome la iniciativa, por lo que se recomienda promover y fomen-tar la concienciación ciudadana. La tercera publicación presentó un modelo matemático simplificado para la estimación del coste-efectividad de la vacuna contra la COVID-19. Se actualizan los datos de dos fechas para la estimación de los costes directos para el sistema sanitario debidos a la COVID-19, computando el coste por ciudadano y por Producto Interior Bruto (PIB), así como el coste-efectividad de la vacuna. La estimó razón de coste-efectividad incremental (RCEI) para dos dosis por persona a un coste de 30 euros cada dosis (incluida la administración). Asumien-do al 70% de efectividad y con el 70% de la población vacunada resultó ser de 5.132 euros (4.926 - 5.276) por año de vida ajustado a calidad (AVAC) ganado (a 17 de febrero de 2021). Una cifra que desciende cada día de pandemia activa. Se incluyó una investigación adicional, no incorporada en el conjunto de artículos, centrada en los recursos humanos y la educación. Se analizaron los temas preocupan al personal de primera línea, es decir, a la enfermería, y cómo la pandemia ha afectado a sus publicaciones científicas, como índice de los cambios en el clima laboral que sufre este colectivo. Median-te un estudio bibliométrico comparativo entre las publicaciones de 2019 y 2020, se analizó el cambio de temas y ámbitos como reflejo del impacto del COVID-19 en el personal de enfermería. Así se comprobó que, en los ámbitos de enfermería de atención especializada, y sobre todo e / [CA] El brot de Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 va representar un repte per a l'economia, la vida soci-al i els serveis sanitaris. Quan més es necessitava la informació per a la planificació econò-mica, malgrat esforços extraordinaris, els serveis de vigilància i notificació no van ser capa-ços d'oferir dades consistents, com així van reconèixer els mateixos organismes governa-mentals. Aquesta tesi inclou tres articles publicats durant els brots de COVID-19 i una investigació addicional fora del conjunt de publicacions. La investigació té com a objectiu general pro-porcionar informació a través d'estimacions alternatives. Per a això s'han utilitzat diverses metodologies, entre elles els models matemàtics de predicció epidemiològica, el Millor Ajust de Valors Relacionats (BARV), les anàlisis de diferents enquestes i la metodologia bibliomètrica, aprofitant o oferint opcions alternatives als mètodes bayesians més comple-xos, les simulacions de Montecarlo o les cadenes de Markov, tot i que algunes dades obtin-gudes es recolzen parcialment en aquestes metodologies. Cada article aborda un tema essen-cial relacionat amb la pandèmia COVID-19. La primera publicació se centra en les dades epidemiològiques bàsiques. Es refereix al pri-mer brot de COVID-19, calculant la seua durada, incidència, prevalença, taxa de defuncions sobre infectats (IFR) i taxa de defuncions sobre casos (confirmats) (CFR). Com a dada des-tacada d'aquest treball, es va preveure que la seroprevalença era massa baixa perquè la im-munitat de ramat exercirà algun paper. Tot i que el valor obtingut va ser aproximadament un 2% inferior al demostrat posteriorment en un estudi poblacional (Institut Carles III), la conclusió sobre la immunitat de ramat no va canviar, i els resultats van confirmar la idoneï-tat de l'enfocament. La segona publicació es va centrar en les qüestions legals i les notícies falses, analitzant la reticència de la població a vacunar-se, l'impacte de les falses notícies en aquests comporta-ments, les possibilitats legals de fer obligatòria la vacuna i les possibles accions contra els professionals de la salut que publiquen notícies falses. La principal conclusió va ser que, tot i que es podria trobar una via legal per l'obligatorietat de la vacunació, i per la persecució governamental de les notícies falses, l'opinió ciutadana sembla preferir que l'administració no prenga la iniciativa, per la qual cosa es recomana promoure i fomentar la conscienciació ciutadana. La tercera publicació va presentar un model matemàtic simplificat per a l'estimació del cost-efectivitat de la vacuna contra la COVID-19. S'actualitzen les dades de dues dates per a l'estimació dels costos directes per al sistema sanitari deguts a la COVID-19, computant el cost per ciutadà i per Producte Interior Brut (PIB), així com el cost-efectivitat de la vacuna. La va estimar raó de cost-efectivitat incremental (RCEI) per dues dosis per persona a un cost de 30 euros cada dosi (inclosa l'administració). Assumint al 70% d'efectivitat i amb el 70% de la població vacunada va resultar ser de 5.132 euros (4.926 - 5.276) per any de vida ajustat a qualitat (AVAQ) (a 17 de febrer de 2021). Una xifra que descendeix cada dia de pandèmia activa. Es va afegir una investigació addicional, no inclosa en el conjunt d'articles, centrada en els recursos humans i l'educació. Es van analitzar els temes que preocupen al personal de pri-mera línia, és a dir, a la infermeria, i com la pandèmia ha afectat les seues publicacions cien-tífiques, com a índex dels canvis en el clima laboral que pateix aquest col·lectiu. Mitjançant un estudi bibliomètric comparatiu entre les publicacions de 2019 i 2020, es va analitzar el canvi de temes i camps com a reflex de l'impacte del COVID-19 en el personal d'infermeria. Així es va comprovar que en els àmbits d'infermeria d'atenció especialitzada, i sobretot en atenció primària, els principals problemes detectat / [EN] The SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus outbreak has posed a challenge to the economy, social life, and health services. Just when information was most needed for economic planning, moni-toring, and reporting services were unable, despite extraordinary efforts to provide con-sistent data, as government agencies themselves acknowledged. This thesis includes three articles published during the COVID-19 outbreaks and additional research outside the publication set. The overall aim of the research is to provide infor-mation through alternative estimates. Several methodologies have been used, including mathematical models for epidemiological prediction, Best Adjustment of Related Values (BARV), analyses of different surveys and bibliometric methodology, taking advantage of or offering an alternative to, more complex options such as Bayesian methods, Monte Carlo simulations or Markov chains, although some data obtained are partially supported by these methodologies. Each article addresses a key issue related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The first publication focuses on basic epidemiological data. It refers to the first outbreak of COVID-19, estimating its duration, incidence, prevalence, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR). As a highlight of this work, the seroprevalence was anticipated to be too low for herd immunity to play a role. Although the value obtained was approximate-ly 2% lower than that subsequently demonstrated by a population-based study (Instituto Carlos III), the conclusion on herd immunity remained unchanged, and the results con-firmed the appropriateness of the approach. The second publication focuses on legal issues and fake news, analysing reluctance to be vaccinated in the population, the impact of fake news on these behaviours, the legal possi-bilities of making vaccination mandatory, and possible actions against health professionals who publish fake news. The main conclusion was that, although a legal avenue could be found for mandatory vaccination and for governmental prosecution of fake news, public opinion seems to prefer that the authorities do not take the initiative, therefore it recom-mends promoting and encouraging public awareness. The third publication presented a simplified mathematical model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. Data from two dates were obtained for the estimation of the direct costs to the health system due to COVID-19, computing the cost per citizen and per Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for two doses per person at a cost of 30 euros per dose (including administration). Assuming 70% effectiveness and with 70% of the population vaccinated, it was found to be 5,132 euros (4,926 - 5,276) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (as of 17 February 2021). The figure decreases with each day of the active pandemic. Additional research not included in the set of articles focuses on human resources and education. It analyses the concerns of frontline staff, i.e., nurses, and how the pandemic has affected their scientific publications, as an index of the changes in the work climate experienced by this group. Through a comparative bibliometric study of publications in 2019 and 2020, the change in topics and fields was analysed, as a reflection of the impact of COVID-19 on nursing staff. It was found that in the fields of specialised care nursing and above all in primary care, the main problems detected are those related to protective measures and psychological factors, while the publications of nursing staff in nursing homes showed an increase in topics related to management and organisation. Finally, some aspects of the implementation of telecommuting and distance learning have been reviewed. Some of the boosts in this field resulting from the pandemic could be very useful and remain in the future, such as the incorporation of telewo / Marco Franco, JE. (2021). What have we learned from the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak? Critical analysis of economic factors and recommendations for the future [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/174883 / TESIS / Compendio