Esta dissertação trata do estudo da volatilidade eleitoral nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras no período de 1989 a 2006 na escala dos municípios brasileiros. Foi calculada a volatilidade eleitoral em quatro períodos: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002 e 2002/2006. Os cálculos foram feitos por meio do índice de volatilidade entre blocos de partidos (Bartolini e Mair 1990). A geografia eleitoral da volatilidade eleitoral municipal desses períodos é apresentada através de tabelas e mapas. Os municípios brasileiros são Identificados e classificados em cinco grupos pelo número de vezes em que eles apresentaram taxas altas de volatilidade no período de 1989 a 2006. Por fim é analisada a possível correlação entre essa classificação e algumas variáveis socioeconômicas. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que altas taxas de volatilidade eleitoral durante as eleições presidenciais nos municípios brasileiros estiveram correlacionadas a índices baixos de condição de vida e educacionais. / This dissertation is on the electoral volatility in Brazilian presidential elections between 1989 and 2006 on Brazilian municipalities scale. The electoral volatility of four periods was calculated: 1989/1994, 1994/1998, 1998/2002, and 2002/2006. The calculations were made using the inter-bloc volatility index (Bartolini and Mair, 1990). The electoral geography of municipal electoral volatility is presented through maps and tables. The Brazilian municipalities were identified and classified into five groups according to the incidence of high volatility in the period 1989 to 2006. Finally, there is an analysis of the possible correlation between this classification and some socioeconomic variables. The results indicate that high rates of electoral volatility during presidential elections in Brazilian municipalities were correlated with low rates of education and life condition.

The diploma thesis deals with regional differencies in voting results of individual Czech political parties. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part describes a theory of voting systems, focuses on their variants and explains also impact on voting results. The second part contains various types of analysis of voting results of elections into Czech Parliament during period of years 1996 -- 2006. In analysis there we calculate with voting results and social-econimic characteristics for each region. The target of analysis is to find out measure of correlation between mentioned datas.

This thesis is focused on analyzing the reforms of the electoral system in Ukraine, during the period from gaining independence to the present. The main goal is to determine the reasons of the electoral reforms, and which political entities have become initiators of those changes in case of (non) existence inherent factors. The hypothesis of the thesis is whether political entities sought to maintain or strengthen its position in the Parliament, rather than contribute to the improvement of the electoral process.

[EN] The present doctoral thesis has found its origin in the influence that policies developed within the EU institutions have shown on the welfare of the world population. The influence of national political parties in decisions addressed to the European Parliament (EP) puts its electoral proposals on Sustainable Development (SD) as a first step in its political implementation. The main objective of the PhD project has been to understand the meaning that Spanish political parties have assigned to SD through content analysis of their electoral programs under the EP political competition in elections in 2009. Far from being a paper exercise, the achievement of the objective has intended that the results will allow citizens to hold political parties to account and, simultaneously, to facilitate comparison of the proposals made by the various political parties. Throughout the project we have analyzed the electoral proposals from five political parties (PP, PSOE, UPyD, IU and ICV-EUIA) in relation to thirteen key political dimensions of SD established by an ad hoc panel to experts. The results show for each political party their commitment to achieving SD through existing structures (statu quo position), to approaches that advocate the need for fundamental reforms but not a complete break with the current structures (reformist position) or to those approaches advocates a radical transformation of economic structures and power in society (transforming position). The work has been completed with the detailed definition of each of the dimensions analyzed, the policies included in each of the positions and the identification of the most relevant issues addressed in election proposals regarding the SD. / [ES] El presente trabajo de tesis doctoral ha encontrado su origen en la influencia que las políticas desarrolladas en el seno de las instituciones de la UE han demostrado tener sobre el bienestar de la población mundial. La influencia de los partidos políticos nacionales en las decisiones abordadas en el Parlamento Europeo (PE) sitúa sus propuestas electorales en materia de Desarrollo Sostenible (DS) como primer paso en su realización política. El objetivo principal del proyecto de tesis doctoral ha sido comprender el significado que los partidos políticos españoles han asignado al DS a través del análisis de contenido de sus programas electorales en el marco de la competición política al PE en las elecciones de 2009. Lejos de ser un mero ejercicio teórico, la consecución del objetivo marcado ha pretendido que los resultados permitan poner en marcha procesos de rendición de cuentas por parte de la ciudadanía y, a la vez, facilitar la comparación de las propuestas realizadas por los diferentes partidos políticos. A lo largo del proyecto se han analizado las propuestas electorales de cinco partidos políticos (PP, PSOE, UPyD, IU e ICV-EUIA) en relación a trece dimensiones políticas clave del DS establecidas por un panel ad hoc de expertos y expertas. Los resultados obtenidos muestran para cada partido su grado de adscripción a planteamientos en línea con alcanzar el DS a través de las estructuras actuales (posición statu quo), a planteamientos que abogan por la necesidad de realizar reformas fundamentales pero sin una ruptura total con las estructuras actuales (posición reformista), o bien, a aquellos planteamientos defensores de una transformación radical de las estructuras económicas y de poder de la sociedad (posición transformadora). El trabajo se ha completado con la definición detallada de cada una de las dimensiones analizadas, las políticas incluidas en cada una de las posiciones y la identificación de los temas más relevantes abordados en las propuestas electorales en relación al DS. / [CAT] El present treball de tesi doctoral ha trobat el seu origen en la influència que les polítiques desenvolupades al si de les institucions de la UE han demostrat tenir sobre el benestar de la població mundial. La influència dels partits polítics nacionals en les decisions abordades al Parlament Europeu (PE) situa les seues propostes electorals en matèria de Desenvolupament Sostenible (DS) com a primer pas en la seua realització política. L'objectiu principal del projecte de tesi doctoral ha sigut comprendre el significat que els partits polítics espanyols han assignat al DS mitjançant l'anàlisi de contingut dels seus programes electorals al marc de la competició política al PE en les eleccions de 2009. Lluny de ser un mer exercici teòric, la consecució de l'objectiu marcat ha pretès que els resultats permeten posar en marxa processos de rendició de comptes per part de la ciutadania i, al mateix temps, facilitar la comparació de les propostes realitzades pels diferents partits polítics. Al llarg del projecte s'han analitzat les propostes electorals de cinc partits polítics (PP, PSOE, UPyD, IU i ICV-EUIA) en relació a tretze dimensions polítiques clau del DS establertes per un panell ad hoc d'experts i expertes. Els resultats obtinguts mostren per a cada partit el seu grau d'adscripció a plantejaments en línia amb assolir el DS mitjançant les estructures actuals (posició statu quo), a plantejaments que advoquen per la necessitat de realitzar reformes fonamentals però sense una ruptura total amb les estructures actuals (posició reformista), o bé, a aquells plantejaments defensors d'una transformació radical de les estructures econòmiques i de poder de la societat (posició transformadora). El treball s'ha completat amb la definició detallada de cadascuna de les dimensions analitzades, les polítiques incloses en cadascuna de les posicions i la identificació del temes més rellevants abordats en les propostes electorals en relació al DS. / Álvarez Sánchez, D. (2015). Análisis comparativo y propuesta metodológica para el análisis del contenido de programas electorales para estimar la posición política en relación al Desarrollo Sostenible [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/52032 / TESIS

This diploma thesis deals with the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic in view of history, voter turnout and electoral system. The main purpose of the thesis is to present the Senate in terms of broad perspective, based on the analysis of selected parts of the political system. The thesis is a case study which includes an analysis of the Czech Constitution preparations, a voter turnout analysis with the main purpose to present crucial trends and simulation of some variations of qualified plurality rule on existing electoral results of the Senate elections. There is also the theory of bicameralism presented as a part of the theoretical part in the thesis. Based on the analysis the thesis presents extensive conclusions. In the view of history there are historical and ideological circumstances and also political demands of participants in the case of proposing the institution of Senate. The main conclusion on the view of voter turnout is that since 2008 there has been a continual decrease, particularly in run-off. The thesis brings two groups of solution in order that the Senate elections voter turnout might increase. First, technical changes in the electoral act could be made, and second, the whole electoral system in terms of single-round option could be changed. Based on the simulation,...

The diploma thesis is based on the phenomenon of Europeanization and its limits in third countries (with a focus on the European neighbourhood countries). It focuses on the influence of the European Union on the adopted electoral reforms in Georgia. It is processed in the form of diachronic comparison. Thanks to it, it will be possible to achieve an understanding of the dynamics of the changes and their development. According to the analysis of the current research of the limits of Europeanization in third countries, the main factors behind these limits have been identified. These were applied to the two pre-selected electoral reforms. It was monitored whether these factors were valid for the given reform, whether they were also valid for the second selected electoral reform over time, or whether these factors contribute to the overall failure of Europeanization in Georgia.

There was a record-breaking gain of seats that was based on preference votes in the 2010 election to the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic. The aim of my diploma thesis is to determine whether the reason for the above was a more active and effective utilization of the voters' preference votes, or it was a result of the different rules for the preferential voting. The clarification of the reasons is based on the analyses of the quantity of used preference votes from the voters' side, their active participation, and the ability to accumulate votes for several selected candidates. The thesis compares the results of the last election and elections in 2002 and 2006 and explores the differences that had happened in the course of these three elections. The thesis is also focused on models of voting behavior. It monitors which characteristics represent the voters who give the preference votes, and on the contrary, which candidates' characteristics are important for these voters and which are irrelevant.

Le travail de thèse s’articule autour de trois chapitres.Le premier chapitre « Electoral Institutions and Political Polarization: An Experiment on Approval Voting in Benin » s’intéresse au rôle des institutions politiques dans la division des sociétés africaines. L’idée principale étant que les institutions politiques pourraient influencer la formation des groupes à l’intérieur des sociétés. Certains systèmes de vote (pluralité, système majoritaire) par leur règle tendent à forcer les électeurs à choisir un camp et pourraient potentiellement conduire à des divisions sociales, ethniques ou religieuses. Les autres règles de vote qui permettent aux électeurs de voter plusieurs candidats à la fois, devraient en théorie éviter ces inconvénients, et ainsi aboutir à une moins grande polarisation politique. Ce chapitre fournit des preuves expérimentales de cette théorie. Nos données proviennent d'une expérience sur le vote d'approbation qui a eu lieu lors de l'élection présidentielle de 2011 au Bénin, un pays démocratique d’Afrique occidentale, multi-ethnique avec un paysage politique caractérisé par une forte fracture nord-sud au niveau sociale et politique. En parallèle au vote officiel (scrutin majoritaire), nous avons proposé le vote par approbation aux électeurs, dont règle leur permet de voter pour plusieurs candidats à la fois. Les résultats montrent que ce système de vote augmente le score de plusieurs candidats consensuels. Nous avons également trouvé que le vote ethnique ne disparait pas et pourrait même augmenter. Dans le chapitre 2 « L’impact du clientélisme électoral: Analyse d’une expérience de laboratoire », nous nous intéressons au clientélisme, son lien avec la modernisation et son impact sur les résultats des élections. Nous avons effectués des expériences de laboratoires dans deux endroits différents (France et Burkina Faso). Les résultats obtenus montrent un effet significatif des campagnes d’achat de vote et de promesses électorales sur le score des candidats dans les deux pays. Mais les campagnes clientélistes sont plus efficaces en Afrique car ils permettent l’élection du candidat clientéliste. Le troisième et dernier chapitre « Quels sont les facteurs qui influencent le consentement à l’impôt en Afrique du Sud Sahara : Une analyse empirique avec des données d’enquêtes d’opinion», fournit une analyse des facteurs déterminant le consentement à payer la taxe des citoyens en Afrique du sud Sahara. En utilisant les données de 29 pays, nous avons montré que la qualité des services publiques, le milieu de résidence, le niveau d’éducation, la confiance aux institutions, la transparence du système fiscal sont des facteurs important dans les décisions des citoyens de consentir à payer la taxe. Nous avions également montré que la présence de ressources naturelle dans un pays, ainsi que le nombre d’habitant dans un pays jouent un rôle dans le consentement à payer la taxes des citoyens. Aussi l’importance accordé aux facteurs déterminant est différent selon la particularité des pays (peuplé ou pas, possédant ou pas des ressources naturelles). / This work is organized in three (3) chapters. the first chapter, « Electoral Institutions and Political Polarization: An Experiment on Approval Voting in Benin » coauthored with J-F Laslier, K.Van Der Straten and L. Wantchekon, focus on the institutions ‘s goal in the division of societies. The main idea is that political institutions can shape political preferences and influence the formation of groups within societies. Some system such Simple plurality and runoff majoritarian voting systems tend to force voters to “choose sides,” potentially exacerbating political, social, ethnic, or religious divisions. Voting rules that allow voters to simultaneously select several candidates should, in theory, avoid these drawbacks, and might thus lead to less polarized political outcomes. This chapter provides experimental evidence in support of this insight. Our data originates from an experiment on Approval Voting that took place during the 2011 presidential election in Benin, a democratic, multi-ethnic country in western Africa, with a political landscape characterized by a strong social and political north-south divide. In contrast to the official runoff rule used in Benin for this presidential election, we proposed Approval Voting to voters, whereby they can vote simultaneously for several candidates. We find that this electoral institution leads to an increase in the overall support for more consensual candidates. We also find that, under Approval Voting, like under Proportional Representation systems, ethnic voting does not disappear, and might even increase. The second chapter continue in the logic of voting motivation by doing some laboratory experiment about electoral clientelism. We focus on the vote buying and electoral promises. We wanted to show the impact on electoral clientelism on the election outcome in one way and in the second way, see if there is a link between modernization and clientelism. We did experiment in two different places (Burkina Faso and France) show that the impact of electoral clientelism is more relevant in Africa countries than in developed countries. The third chapter investigates on tax compliance in Africa by using data from about 29 African countries. The goal is to analyze the citizens’s behaviors when they have to contribute to public funding by paying tax. We want to know which factors may motivate people have a compliance attitude with tax. The main contribution of this research is the effect of country population and the existence of natural resources. We found that citizens living in countries with natural resources are less willing to pay taxes than citizens living in countries without natural resources. Also, we showed that the population matters. Indeed, in the most populated countries, fraud is higher than less popular countries. We then establish for each group of countries the factors for which they should act to have a tax compliance of their citizens. This can help countries to have a great public finance and become more independent from foreign aid.

The effect that different electoral systems have on political participation is a widely discussed and researched topic in social sciences. However, this thesis has examined the relationship between western countries' ballot structures and electoral systems and satisfaction with democracy. By using statistical tools such as SPSS, this thesis has conducted a comparative quantitative analysis that aimed to investigate if ballot structures and electoral systems affect western citizens' satisfaction with democracy. The result is presented with the help of graphical tools, such as tables and diagrams to make it easier for the reader to understand the result. The result concluded that Western countries which have implemented a proportional electoral system do have higher levels of satisfaction with democracy among their citizens, compared to western countries that have implemented majoritarian electoral systems. Further, this thesis has concluded that ballot structures do not affect western citizens' satisfaction with democracy in any significant way.

Han pasado ocho años desde entonces. Como periodista encargado de las informaciones políticas, he cubierto otras campañas. Pero debo de decir que ni en la segunda vuelta del 2006, ni en las elecciones regionales y municipales de noviembre del 2006 y del 2010, ni en las generales y la segunda vuelta del 2011, he visto tal obsesión por las encuestas. Jamás, como entonces, vi tantas veces reiteradas en las portadas de los diarios más importantes que un candidato o candidata lideraba la intención de voto, que él o ella era la ganadora. Los años me han permitido reflexionar sobre aquella situación y construir (o intentarlo al menos) un marco teórico que explique lo sucedido. La hipótesis es sencilla: En la campaña electoral 2005-2006, los diarios Correo, El Comercio y Perú 21, editorialmente vinculados a la derecha y al poder económico peruanos, jugaron a favor de la candidata presidencial Lourdes Flores, a la cual ideológicamente se encontraban cercanos. Una de las formas de cumplir este papel fue construir de ella una imagen positiva, una imagen de ganadora. Y por el contrario, asociaron a sus contrincantes políticos con la derrota o con atributos negativos. Para ello utilizaron las encuestas de opinión. En base a ellas, elaboraron notas de portada que ensalzaban siempre a Lourdes Flores y la presentaban como victoriosa. Para ello, emplearon recursos retóricos que el análisis crítico del discurso nos permite revelar. Al momento de explicar la hipótesis de este trabajo, tal vez el argumento con el que se busque rebatirla sea el hecho de que la candidata de UN no ganó las elecciones: ni siquiera llegó a la segunda vuelta. Pero la teoría del establecimiento de agenda y la construcción de atributos permiten encontrar una explicación teórica a lo que sucedió. Antes de abordar el caso puntual de la campaña electoral 2005-2006, el presente trabajo dedica un capítulo a la historia y los conceptos de la opinión pública. En el segundo capítulo repasaremos las teorías, paradigmas y enfoques de los efectos de los medios de comunicación sobre la opinión pública. En el tercer capítulo, revisaremos como aparecieron las encuestas de opinión. Y en el cuarto capítulo expondremos cómo, a través de la publicación de encuestas, los principales diarios de la capital pretendieron apoyar el intento de Lourdes Flores por convertirse en la primera presidenta de la República.