O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar o processo político e institucional que levou, em 1954, à aprovação da reforma eleitoral que introduziu a cédula única de votação nas eleições presidenciais que elegeu Juscelino Kubitschek. A dissertação argumenta que ao contextualizar a decisão que levou à aprovação do novo método de votação, emergem novos elementos que ajudam a esclarecer o controverso episódio conhecido como contragolpe do Marechal Lott que garantiu a posse do candidato eleito. O material analisado consiste na legislação eleitoral, propostas de reformas eleitorais e a narrativa dos líderes do governo e da oposição a respeito do episódio. Conclui-se que escolha por um novo método de votação, a cédula oficial, deve ser tomada como caso de reforma eleitoral que expressa a emergência de uma dinâmica competitiva na Terceira República Brasileira. / The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the political and institutional process that resulted, in 1954, to the approval of the electoral reform that introduced the unique voting ballot in the presidential elections that elected Juscelino Kubitschek. The dissertation argues that the contextualization of the decision, by the new voting method, offers elements to understand the controversial episode known as \"Marshal Lott\'s coup\" that secured the winner\'s ternure. The material analyzed consists of electoral legislation, proposals for electoral reforms and the narrative of government\'s and opposition\'s leaders. It is concluded that by choosing a new method of voting, the official ballot should be taken as a case of electoral reform that expresses the emergence of a competitive dynamic in the Third Brazilian Republic.

Depuis le milieu des années 1980, la construction européenne est entrée dans une phase d’accélération quivoit l’affirmation de l’Union européenne comme un espace de décision politique à part entière, dont lesprérogatives et les interventions deviennent toujours plus palpables au niveau domestique. Cette thèseexplore les conséquences de ce processus sur la compétition électorale. Le questionnement de ladistinction populaire entre effets « directs » et « indirects » nourrit une réflexion sur les mécanismes parlesquels les partis sont affectés et nous conduit à conceptualiser l’intégration européenne comme unealtération de l’environnement et de la structure d’opportunités des partis, à travers l’européanisation despolitiques publiques et la mise sur agenda de nouveaux enjeux. Cette perspective permet à la fois de mieuxintégrer dans l’étude des partis le tournant interactionniste des recherches sur l’européanisation, etd’enrichir l’analyse en l’inscrivant dans des cadres théoriques depuis longtemps éprouvés pour étudier lespartis et la compétition politique. L’européanisation de la compétition électorale en France, en Allemagneet au Royaume-Uni entre 1986 et 2009 est étudiée au prisme des opportunités et des contraintes découlantde l’intégration, puis des réponses apportées par les acteurs partisans à différents niveaux. Notre enquêtes’appuie pour cela sur l’analyse d’un vaste corpus de documents, de données et de littérature, notammentsur la couverture médiatique des questions européennes, les orientations européennes discernables dansl’opinion publique des trois pays, l’européanisation des politiques publiques, les discours tenus lors descongrès des partis sociaux-démocrates et les programmes électoraux des différents partis. Nous observonsune européanisation différenciée, mais significative, de la structure d’opportunités des partis. En raison desrésistances déployées par les acteurs partisans qui dominent la compétition inter- et intra-partisane, cettetendance n’affecte les dynamiques de compétition électorale qu’à la marge. / European Union to establish itself as a full-fledged political space whose prerogatives and interventionsbecome more and more palpable at the domestic level. This thesis explores the consequences of thisprocess on party competition. The questioning of the popular distinction between « direct » and« indirect » effects nourishes a reflection about the mechanisms by which parties are affected and leads usto conceptualize European integration as an alteration of parties’ environment and structure ofopportunities, through the europeanisation of public policies and the agenda-setting of new issues. Thisperspective allows both to better integrate in the study of parties the « interactionnist » turn of research oneuropeanisation and to enrich the analysis by anchoring it within ordinary frameworks of parties andelectoral competition. The europeanisation of party competition in France, Germany and the United-Kingdom between 1986 and 2009 is studied from the perspective of opportunities and constraintsgenerated by European integration and, then, from the perspective of partisan actors’ reponses at severallevels. Our inquiry relies on the analysis of a vast corpus of documents, data and literature, notably on themedia coverage of European issues, European orientations in the public opinion of the three countries,europeanization of public policies, discourses held at the congresses of social-democratic parties andelectoral manifestos of the different parties. We observe a differentiated, but significative, europeanisationof parties’ structure of opportunities. Due to the resistances of the actors who dominate inter- and intrapartycompetition, this tendency affects the dynamics of party competition only marginally.

As eleições presidenciais são a principal competição do sistema político brasileiro. Há duas proposições dominantes que perpassam as análises da literatura sobre sua natureza e dinâmica: o Programa Bolsa-Família (PBF) é considerado central e determinante para os resultados eleitorais e teria contribuído, no pleito de 2006, para conformar um realinhamento das bases eleitorais do PT, único partido competitivo em todas as eleições. O programa social é considerado fundamental para explicar a força deste partido no Nordeste e entre eleitores pobres. Nesta tese, por meio de replicação de modelos da literatura e da análise de modelos originais a partir de survey, de dados agregados ao nível municipal e ao nível das urnas, e com a aplicação de diferentes metodologias, procuro debater essas hipóteses, apontando inconsistências e deficiências teóricas, metodológicas e empíricas. Os resultados apontam para diagnósticos alternativos às teses vigentes. Primeiro, procuro argumentar que a relação entre as mudanças eleitorais de 2006 e os perfis sociais dos eleitores ocorrem de forma heterogênea pelas regiões e tipos de localidade, e que, após mensuração adequada, essas flutuações são melhor compreendidas como movimentações de eleitores voláteis, e não como realinhamento de bases eleitorais. Além disso, contrariamente às análises correntes, ressalto que a investigação sobre o efeito eleitoral do PBF não deve ser restrita aos seus beneficiários e nem se pode inferir sua importância no resultado eleitoral a partir da sua distribuição regional. Antes, as análises conduzidas nesta tese revelam que o impacto do programa social para as decisões eleitorais foi mais importante no Sudeste que no Nordeste, e não se restringe a eleitores diretamente beneficiários do programa. Por fim, mostro que, após enquadramento adequado, é possível dizer que o impacto do PBF para o resultado eleitoral não foi tão pronunciado ou determinante dos resultados eleitorais. Do ponto de vista mais geral, meu argumento ressalta que as bases eleitorais de longo-prazo dos partidos influenciam os resultados presentes, matizando a importância das mudanças ocorridas em 2006, e sublinha que o efeito do PBF, assim como de qualquer outra política pública com peso político-eleitoral, não pode ser tomado isoladamente, fora do contexto da disputa eleitoral e política. / The presidential elections are the main competition of the Brazilian political system. The current literature on the subject pointed out two thesis about the nature and dynamic of presidential elections: The Bolsa-Família (PBF) conditional cash transfer program is considered to be central and determinant to the electoral results and in 2006 would have contributed to realign the electoral bases of PT, the only party competitive in all elections. The policy is considered to be fundamental to explain the strength of the party on Northeast among poor electors. On this dissertation I examine these hypothesis and debate the theoretical, methodological and empirical inconsistences and deficiencies of the current literature. In order to do so, I replicate models, analyze novel models looking at surveys and aggregate data on the municipal level and on ballot level, among other methods. The results highlight conclusions different from the standing literature. First, I argue that the correlation between the electoral changes of 2006 and the social profile of electors occur heterogeneously over different regions and localities. If the proper measure is applied, these variations are better understood as a movement of volatile electors and not as realignment of electoral bases. Moreover, contrary to the current literature, I emphasize that the investigation over the electoral effect of the PBF shouldn\'t be restricted to its beneficiaries and neither that it is possible to infer its importance on the electoral result based on its regional distribution. Contrarily, based on the data we gathered, the impact of the PBF to the electoral results was more important on the Southeast than on the Northeast and it is not restricted to electors directly beneficed by the program. Still, I argue that if the adequate framework is adopted, it is possible to say that the impact of the PBF on the electoral results wasn\'t very strong or determinant to the electoral result. I conclude that the parties\' long term electoral bases influence on present results, minimizing the fluctuations that occurred in 2006. As it happens with all the policies with high potential to impact on voters decisions, the effect of the PBF cannot be analyzed separately, it has to be considered inside the context of the electoral and political dispute.

As eleições presidenciais são a principal competição do sistema político brasileiro. Há duas proposições dominantes que perpassam as análises da literatura sobre sua natureza e dinâmica: o Programa Bolsa-Família (PBF) é considerado central e determinante para os resultados eleitorais e teria contribuído, no pleito de 2006, para conformar um realinhamento das bases eleitorais do PT, único partido competitivo em todas as eleições. O programa social é considerado fundamental para explicar a força deste partido no Nordeste e entre eleitores pobres. Nesta tese, por meio de replicação de modelos da literatura e da análise de modelos originais a partir de survey, de dados agregados ao nível municipal e ao nível das urnas, e com a aplicação de diferentes metodologias, procuro debater essas hipóteses, apontando inconsistências e deficiências teóricas, metodológicas e empíricas. Os resultados apontam para diagnósticos alternativos às teses vigentes. Primeiro, procuro argumentar que a relação entre as mudanças eleitorais de 2006 e os perfis sociais dos eleitores ocorrem de forma heterogênea pelas regiões e tipos de localidade, e que, após mensuração adequada, essas flutuações são melhor compreendidas como movimentações de eleitores voláteis, e não como realinhamento de bases eleitorais. Além disso, contrariamente às análises correntes, ressalto que a investigação sobre o efeito eleitoral do PBF não deve ser restrita aos seus beneficiários e nem se pode inferir sua importância no resultado eleitoral a partir da sua distribuição regional. Antes, as análises conduzidas nesta tese revelam que o impacto do programa social para as decisões eleitorais foi mais importante no Sudeste que no Nordeste, e não se restringe a eleitores diretamente beneficiários do programa. Por fim, mostro que, após enquadramento adequado, é possível dizer que o impacto do PBF para o resultado eleitoral não foi tão pronunciado ou determinante dos resultados eleitorais. Do ponto de vista mais geral, meu argumento ressalta que as bases eleitorais de longo-prazo dos partidos influenciam os resultados presentes, matizando a importância das mudanças ocorridas em 2006, e sublinha que o efeito do PBF, assim como de qualquer outra política pública com peso político-eleitoral, não pode ser tomado isoladamente, fora do contexto da disputa eleitoral e política. / The presidential elections are the main competition of the Brazilian political system. The current literature on the subject pointed out two thesis about the nature and dynamic of presidential elections: The Bolsa-Família (PBF) conditional cash transfer program is considered to be central and determinant to the electoral results and in 2006 would have contributed to realign the electoral bases of PT, the only party competitive in all elections. The policy is considered to be fundamental to explain the strength of the party on Northeast among poor electors. On this dissertation I examine these hypothesis and debate the theoretical, methodological and empirical inconsistences and deficiencies of the current literature. In order to do so, I replicate models, analyze novel models looking at surveys and aggregate data on the municipal level and on ballot level, among other methods. The results highlight conclusions different from the standing literature. First, I argue that the correlation between the electoral changes of 2006 and the social profile of electors occur heterogeneously over different regions and localities. If the proper measure is applied, these variations are better understood as a movement of volatile electors and not as realignment of electoral bases. Moreover, contrary to the current literature, I emphasize that the investigation over the electoral effect of the PBF shouldn\'t be restricted to its beneficiaries and neither that it is possible to infer its importance on the electoral result based on its regional distribution. Contrarily, based on the data we gathered, the impact of the PBF to the electoral results was more important on the Southeast than on the Northeast and it is not restricted to electors directly beneficed by the program. Still, I argue that if the adequate framework is adopted, it is possible to say that the impact of the PBF on the electoral results wasn\'t very strong or determinant to the electoral result. I conclude that the parties\' long term electoral bases influence on present results, minimizing the fluctuations that occurred in 2006. As it happens with all the policies with high potential to impact on voters decisions, the effect of the PBF cannot be analyzed separately, it has to be considered inside the context of the electoral and political dispute.

自1990年代中起國大陸經濟發展欣欣向榮之際，城市治理議題則圍繞在國家如何平抑發展中可能的基層動亂。本研究選取中國大陸經濟發展前沿城市的上海基層社區--居民委員會選舉作為觀察主題，直接選舉的推動是否會影響社區政治中黨國的單一獨斷？學習效果(learning effects)的理論預設是，隨著選舉演練次數和民眾政治參與的增加，會引發「批判公民」(critical citizens)意識的興起。這樣的理論預設是否能在上海基層選舉中看到？ 本研究觀察2003年到2012年的居委會換屆選舉。發現近年來，社區民眾對黨國的挑戰並未因為選舉限制的不斷增強而退卻，反之，民眾會利用選舉過程來挑戰官方威權或是作為社區事務發聲的管道。社區民眾如何在嚴酷的制度環境中發起對當權者的政治挑戰？本文將從居委會選舉中的選舉競爭，分析民眾挑戰執政當權所使用的資源稟賦。最後，通過基層競選觀察獲得的啟發是，民眾權利意識的提升，使得黨國忠誠不再凌駕一切。開放直接選舉的制度效果，如現代化理論所昭示的，存在學習效應並且在中產階級社區最為明顯。 / Undergoing the dramatic development of economic and social change in China, local governments pay great strength on the issue of governance for preventing any potential contentious activities. Facing the challenges of local governance, the Chinese governments adopt “Direct elections" for reducing the tension between state and society. In Urban city, direct elections as an important political reform, have been initiated in Residential Committee. Under the CCP party-state system, the local elections have been under severe surveillance. The negative result sharply deduces citizens’ political efficacy, especially on the manner of the participating in voting and political confidence towards local governments. However, in recent years, we observed that some Residential Committees in Shanghai experienced electoral competitions. In these cases, citizens organized the campaign to challenge the authority. The main questions are below: why Chinese people challenge the local authority? And how do they mobilize the campaign? Finally, how should we evaluate these political subjects? Based on these experiences, I conclude that the social-economical development may bring positive consequences on Chinese political reform.

Die Dissertation untersucht ob partizipative Governance ein effektives Mittel ist um lokale Regierungen in Guatemala dazu zu bewegen ihren Wählern gegenüber verstärkt Rechenschaft abzulegen und den Haushalt mehr an den Bedürfnissen der Armen auszu-richten. Das erste Papier bereitet die wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisse zur Wirkung von und den Bedingungen für effektive partizipative Governance auf. Das zweite Papier stellt ein neues Verfahren zur Kalibrierung qualitativer Interviewdaten für fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) vor. In einer qualitativ-vergleichenden Ana-lyse von zehn ländlichen Gemeinden untersucht das dritte Papier wie sich effektive par-tizipative Governance, politischer Wettbewerb und Zugang zu lokalen Medien auf die Haushaltsgestaltung einer Lokalregierung auswirken. Das vierte Papier analysiert mit derselben Methode die Bedingungen für effektive partizipative Governance. Das fünfte Papier präsentiert eine Fallstudie zweier Gemeinden und diskutiert Politikoptionen für die Implementierung von partizipativer Governance in Guatemala. Die Ergebnisse der Papiere zeigen, dass effektive partizipative Governance in Kombination mit starkem politischem Wettbewerb zu einer armutsorientierteren Ausrichtung öffentlicher Ausga-ben in den zehn Gemeinden führt, da Wähler besser informiert sind. Jedoch deuten die Ergebnisse auch darauf hin, dass partizipative Governance wegen des geringen Grades zivilgesellschaftlicher Organisation, des niedrigen Bildungsniveaus und hoher Armut in Guatemala nicht effektiv implementiert wird. Partizipative Governance kann also lokale Regierungen dazu bewegen Rechenschaft abzulegen und den Haushalt armutsorientier-ter zu gestalten. Ihre effektive Implementierung wird jedoch in Guatemala lange dauern und einen hohen Ressourceneinsatz erfordern. Daher sollten politische Entscheidungs-träger und Geber auch die Stärkung anderer Informations- und Rechenschaftslegungs-mechanismen, wie der Gemeinderäte, in Betracht ziehen. / This thesis analyses whether participatory governance is an effective means for increas-ing local government accountability and for making local government spending more responsive to the needs of the poor in rural Guatemala. The first paper evaluates the scientific evidence on the impact of and the conditions for effective participatory gov-ernance. The second paper presents a new technique for calibrating qualitative interview data for fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). In a qualitative compara-tive analysis of ten rural Guatemalan municipalities the third paper examines how effec-tive participatory governance, competitive elections, and access to local media influence the allocation of local government spending. The fourth paper analyses the conditions for effective participatory governance with the same empirical method. The fifth paper presents a comparative case study of two municipalities and discusses policy options for implementing participatory governance in Guatemala. Overall, the papers’ findings show that effective participatory governance is sufficient for local government responsiveness in the study area when it is combined with competitive elections, because it increases voter information about local government performance. Yet, the findings also suggest that it will be difficult to implement participatory governance effectively in Guatemala due to the low degree of civil society organization, the low level of education of the population and the high level of poverty. The conclusion drawn from these findings is that effective participatory governance arrangements can make local governments more accountable and responsive, but that it will require much time and resources to implement them. Policy makers and donors should therefore also consider strengthening other information mechanisms, as well as existing accountability mechanisms, such as elected Municipal Councils.