Power systems must face new challenges in the current environment. The energy market liberalization and the increase in the loading level make the occurrence of instability phenomena leading to large blackouts more likely. Existing tools must be improved and new tools must be developed to avoid them.<p><p>The aim of this thesis is the improvement of the voltage stability assessment efficiency. Two orientations are studied: the monitoring methods and the load modeling.<p><p>The purpose of the monitoring methods is to evaluate the voltage stability using only measurements and without running simulations. <p><p>The first approach considered is local. The parameters of the Thevenin equivalent seen from a load bus are assessed thanks to a stream of local voltage and current measurements. Several issues are investigated using measurements coming from complete time-domain simulations. The applicability of this approach is questioned.<p><p>The second approach is global and uses measurements acquired by a Wide-Area Measurement System (WAMS). An original approach with a certain prediction capability is proposed, along with intuitive visualizations that allow to understand the deterioration process leading to the collapse.<p><p>The load modeling quality is certainly the weak point of the voltage security assessment tools which run simulations to predict the stability of the power system depending on different evolutions. Appropriate load models with accurate parameters lead to a direct improvement of the prediction precision.<p><p>An innovative procedure starting from data of long measurement campaigns is proposed to automatically evaluate the parameters of static and dynamic load models. Real measurements taken in the Belgian power system are used to validate this approach.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Short-term load forecasting in South Africa using machine learning and statistical models is discussed in this study. The research is focused on carrying out a comparative analysis in forecasting hourly electricity demand. This study was carried out using South Africa’s aggregated hourly load data from Eskom. The comparison is carried out in this study using support vector regression (SVR), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), artificial neural networks (NN) with generalized additive model (GAM) as a benchmark model in forecasting hourly electricity demand. In both modelling frameworks, variable selection is done using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso). The SGB model yielded the least root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) on testing data. SGB model also yielded the least RMSE, MAE and MAPE on training data. Forecast combination of the models’ forecasts is done using convex combination and quantile regres- sion averaging (QRA). The QRA was found to be the best forecast combination model ibased on the RMSE, MAE and MAPE. / NRF

Devido à alta demanda energética e a grande complexidade dos atuais Sistemas Elétricos de Potência (SEPs), altamente interligados, torna-se cada vez mais importante para o operador do sistema, conhecer o estado atual do SEP. Além disso, dispor de ferramentas que permitam prever situações que venham a comprometer o bom funcionamento do sistema. Como um bom funcionamento, enquadra-se a continuidade do suprimento e perfis adequados de tensão elétrica, mesmo após a ocorrência de perturbações, o que pode ser afetado pelo fenômeno de instabilidade de tensão (ou colapso de tensão). Por isso, o objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver uma metodologia de análise do colapso de tensão em tempo real considerando limites de potência ativa e reativa de geradores, a qual visa auxiliar o operador do sistema. Esta metodologia é dividida em cinco etapas. A primeira delas consiste em uma análise do caso base dos SEPs considerados, utilizando um algoritmo que permite estimar a margem de estabilidade de tensão do sistema, considerando os limites de potência ativa e reativa dos geradores. Esta primeira etapa utiliza a metodologia de fluxo de potência continuado, utilizando a carga e a tensão como parâmetros de continuação. A segunda etapa apresenta uma análise de contingências rápida considerando contingências simples de linhas de transmissão, seguindo o critério N-1. Nesta segunda etapa, foi utilizado o método de Look Ahead Modificado. A terceira etapa é uma análise apurada das contingências mais críticas, identificadas na etapa dois, a fim de verificar a presença de bifurcações induzidas por limites. Nesta terceira etapa, também se utilizou a metodologia de fluxo de potência continuado. Na quarta etapa, são aplicados todos os controle disponíveis no sistema, como inserção de banco de capacitores e ajuste do TAP dos transformadores, a fim de verificar qual seria o impacto dessas ações de controle no limite de operação segura do sistema, utilizando o método de Look Ahead Modificado. Essas quatro etapas possibilitam uma análise da estabilidade de tensão do sistema em tempo real. Por fim, é proposta uma quinta etapa de análise de contingências Offline, sendo uma análise mais precisa de todas as contingências, utilizando a metodologia de fluxo de potência continuado. Os SEPs analisados nesta dissertação foram o sistema de cinco barras Stagg, o sistema de quatorze barras padrão do Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) e o sistema de trinta barras padrão IEEE. / Due to the high energy demand and the high complexity of today's interconnected Electrical Power Systems (SEPs), it is becoming increasingly important for the system operator to know the current state of the SEP. In addition, have the tools to predict situations that may compromise the smooth operation of the system. As a good operation, the continuity of the supply and adequate voltage profiles are correct, even after the occurrence of disturbances, which can be affected by the phenomenon of voltage instability (or voltage collapse). Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop a methodology for the analysis of voltage collapse in real time considering the limits of active and reactive power of generators, which aims to assist the system operator. This methodology is divided into five steps. The first one consists of an analysis of the base case of the considered SEPs, using an algorithm that allows estimating the voltage stability margin of the system considering the limits of active and reactive power of the generators. This first step uses the continuous power flow methodology, using load and voltage as continuation parameters. The second stage presents a fast contingency analysis considering simple contingencies of transmission lines, following the criterion N-1. In this second step, the Modified Look Ahead method was used. The third step is an accurate analysis of the most critical contingencies, identified in step two, in order to verify the presence of limits-induced bifurcations. In this third step, we also used the continuous power flow methodology. In the fourth step, all available system controls, such as capacitor bank insertion and TAP adjustment of the transformers, are applied in order to verify the impact of these control actions on the safe operation limit of the system, using the Look Ahead Modified. These four steps enable a real-time analysis of the voltage stability of the system. Finally, a fifth stage of analysis of Offline contingencies is proposed, and a more precise analysis of all the contingencies using the methodology of continuous power flow is proposed. The SEPs analyzed in this dissertation were the Stagg five-bar system, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard fourteen bar system and the IEEE standard thirty-bar system.

A ocorrência de arborescências em água (water tree) ou elétrica (electrical tree) é apontada como o principal fenômeno de degradação em isolações sólidas de cabos de distribuição de energia elétrica. A evolução destas arborescências pode levar a camada de isolação à ruptura dielétrica e, como conseqüência, à falha destes equipamentos, com a interrupção do fornecimento de energia elétrica. O entendimento deste fenômeno é necessário para desenvolver métodos de análise e prevenção da ruptura de materiais isolantes. Este trabalho mostra a aplicação da técnica contraste de fase por raios X como metodologia para o estudo das arborescências formadas em materiais isolantes de borracha de propileno etileno (EPR) e polietileno reticulado (XLPE). / The water tree or electrical tree occurrence is identified as the main phenomena in the degradation in solid isolations of the electric energy distribution cables. The water tree evolution can lead to dielectric breakdown of the isolation layer and, consequently, to the failure this equipment and the interruption of the electric energy supply. The understanding this phenomenon is necessary for the development analysis methods and to prevent collapse in the polymeric insulation. This work demonstrates the application of X-ray phase contrast technique as a methodology for the study of the water tree and electrical tree in Ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) and crosslinked polyethylene (XLPE).

Redes inteligentes de distribuição de energia fornecem serviços com o potencial de aumentar a eficiência energética e a qualidade de vida da sociedade, mas possuem requisitos severos de tempo de resposta, confiabilidade, escalabilidade e QoS. As chaves ópticas são dispositivos comutadores de caminhos em fibras ópticas popularmente utilizados para trocas físicas de rotas. Neste trabalho sugere-se utilizar estes dispositivos para ativamente reorganizar uma rede com o objetivo de diminuir a latência de comunicação, visando atender aos requisitos de comunicações dos serviços de redes inteligentes. Foram estudadas as características de protocolos de roteamento conhecidos e aplicou-se o algoritmo de Dijkstra na criação de quatro heurísticas de otimização dos caminhos máximos em redes com chaves ópticas. Simulações realizadas mostram que as heurísticas propostas reduzem o número de saltos nos caminhos máximos, levando à redução de latência. É sugerida a continuação deste estudo aperfeiçoando as heurísticas propostas com outros mecanismos de otimização e diferentes métricas, como redução de congestionamento de tráfego e de consumo de energia na rede. / Smart grid networks provide services with the potential to increase energy efficiency and the quality of life of society, but have strict requirements regarding response time, reliability, scalability and QoS. The optical switches are fiber optic switching devices commonly used for physical route changing. In this study, it is suggested to use these devices to actively rearrange a network in order to reduce the communication latency, to meet the communications requirements of smart grid services. The characteristics of known routing protocols have been studied and the Dijkstra algorithm has been applied at the creation of four heuristics that aim to optimize the maximum paths in networks with optical switches. The simulations show that the heuristics reduce the maximum number of hops in the paths, leading to reductions in latency. It is suggested the continuation of this study improving the heuristics with other optimization engines and different metrics, such as reducing traffic congestion and energy.

Redes inteligentes de distribuição de energia fornecem serviços com o potencial de aumentar a eficiência energética e a qualidade de vida da sociedade, mas possuem requisitos severos de tempo de resposta, confiabilidade, escalabilidade e QoS. As chaves ópticas são dispositivos comutadores de caminhos em fibras ópticas popularmente utilizados para trocas físicas de rotas. Neste trabalho sugere-se utilizar estes dispositivos para ativamente reorganizar uma rede com o objetivo de diminuir a latência de comunicação, visando atender aos requisitos de comunicações dos serviços de redes inteligentes. Foram estudadas as características de protocolos de roteamento conhecidos e aplicou-se o algoritmo de Dijkstra na criação de quatro heurísticas de otimização dos caminhos máximos em redes com chaves ópticas. Simulações realizadas mostram que as heurísticas propostas reduzem o número de saltos nos caminhos máximos, levando à redução de latência. É sugerida a continuação deste estudo aperfeiçoando as heurísticas propostas com outros mecanismos de otimização e diferentes métricas, como redução de congestionamento de tráfego e de consumo de energia na rede. / Smart grid networks provide services with the potential to increase energy efficiency and the quality of life of society, but have strict requirements regarding response time, reliability, scalability and QoS. The optical switches are fiber optic switching devices commonly used for physical route changing. In this study, it is suggested to use these devices to actively rearrange a network in order to reduce the communication latency, to meet the communications requirements of smart grid services. The characteristics of known routing protocols have been studied and the Dijkstra algorithm has been applied at the creation of four heuristics that aim to optimize the maximum paths in networks with optical switches. The simulations show that the heuristics reduce the maximum number of hops in the paths, leading to reductions in latency. It is suggested the continuation of this study improving the heuristics with other optimization engines and different metrics, such as reducing traffic congestion and energy.

Continued increase in system load leading to a reduction in operating margins, as well as the tendency to move towards a deregulated grid with renewable energy sources has increased the vulnerability of the grid to blackouts. Advanced intelligent techniques are therefore required to design new monitoring schemes that enable smart grid operation in a secure and robust manner. As the grid is highly interconnected, monitoring of transmission and distribution systems is increasingly relying on digital communication. Conventional security assessment techniques are slow, hampering real-time decision making. Hence, there is a need to develop fast and accurate security monitoring techniques. Intelligent techniques that are capable of processing large amounts of captured data are finding increasing scope as essential enablers for the smart grid. The research work presented in this thesis has evolved from the need for enhanced monitoring in transmission and distribution grids. The potential of intelligent techniques for enhanced system monitoring has been demonstrated for disturbed scenarios in an integrated power system. In transmission grids, one of the challenging problems is network partitioning, also known as network area-decomposition. In this thesis, an approach based on relative electrical distance (RED) has been devised to construct zonal dynamic equivalents such that the dynamic characteristics of the original system are retained in the equivalent system within the desired accuracy. Identification of coherent generators is another key aspect in power system dynamics. In this thesis, a support vector clustering-based coherency identification technique is proposed for large interconnected multi-machine power systems. The clustering technique is based on coherency measure which is formulated using the generator rotor measurements. These rotor measurements can be obtained with the help of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). In distribution grids, accurate and fast fault identification of faults is a key challenge. Hence, an automated fault diagnosis technique based on multi class support vector machines (SVMs) has been developed in this thesis. The proposed fault location scheme is capable of accurately identify the fault type, location of faulted line section and the fault impedance in the distributed generation (DG) systems. The proposed approach is based on the three phase voltage and current measurements available at all the sources i.e. substation and at the connection points of DGs. An approach for voltage instability monitoring in 3-phase distribution systems has also been proposed in this thesis. The conventional single phase L-index measure has been extended to a 3-phase system to incorporate information pertaining to unbalance in the distribution system. All the approaches proposed in this thesis have been validated using standard IEEE test systems and also on practical Indian systems.

Aujourd’hui les réseaux électriques sont exploités dans un marché dérégulé. Les gestionnaires des réseaux électriques sont tenus d’assurer un certain nombre de critères de fiabilité et de continuité du service, tout en minimisant le coût total consacré aux efforts effectués pour maintenir la fiabilité des installations. Il s’agit de trouver une stratégie, qui répond à plusieurs exigences, comme :le coût, les performances, la législation, les exigences du régulateur, etc. Cependant, le processus de prise de décision est subjectif, car chaque participant ramène sa contribution sur base de sa propre expérience. Bien que ce processus permette de trouver la « meilleure » stratégie, cette dernière n’est pas forcément la stratégie « optimale ». Ce compromis technico-économique a sensibilisé les gestionnaires des réseaux électriques à la nécessité d’un recours à des outils d’aide à la décision, qui doivent se baser sur des nouvelles approches quantitatives et une modélisation plus proches de la réalité physique.<p>Cette thèse rentre dans le cadre d’un projet de recherche lancé par ELIA, et dénommé COMPRIMa (Cost-Optimization Models for the Planning of the Renewal, Inspection, and Maintenance of Belgian power system facilities). Ce projet vise à développer une méthodologie qui permet de modéliser une partie du réseau électrique de transport (par les réseaux de Petri stochastiques) et de simuler son comportement dynamique sur un horizon donné (simulation de Monte Carlo). L’évaluation des indices de fiabilité permet de comparer les différents scénarios qui tentent d’améliorer les performances de l’installation. L’approche proposée est basée sur la stratégie RCM (Reliability-Centered Maintenance).<p>La méthodologie développée dans cette thèse permet une modélisation plus réaliste du réseau qui tient compte, entre autres, des aspects suivants :<p>- La corrélation quantitative entre le processus de maintenance et le processus de vieillissement des composants (par un modèle d’âge virtuel) ;<p>- Les dépendances liées à l’aspect multi-composant du système, qui tient compte des modes de défaillance spécifiques des systèmes de protection ;<p>- L’aspect économique lié à la stratégie de maintenance (inspection, entretien, réparation, remplacement), aux coupures (programmées et forcées) et aux événements à risque (refus disjoncteur, perte d’un client, perte d’un jeu de barres, perte d’une sous-station, etc.). / Doctorat en sciences appliquées / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Forecasting of electricity peak demand levels is important for decision makers in Eskom. The overall objective of this study was to develop medium term load forecasting models which will help decision makers in Eskom for planning of the operations of the utility company. The frequency table of hourly daily demands was carried out and the results show that most peak loads occur at hours 19:00 and 20:00, over the period 2009 to 2013. The study used generalised additive models with and without tensor product interactions to forecast electricity demand at 19:00 and 20:00 including daily peak electricity demand. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and Lasso via hierarchical interactions were used for variable selection to increase the model interpretability by eliminating irrelevant variables that are not associated with the response variable, this way also over tting is reduced. The parameters of the developed models were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood and penalized regression. The best models were selected based on smallest values of the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and Generalized cross validation (GCV) along with the highest Adjusted R2. Forecasts from best models with and without tensor product interactions were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Operational forecasting was proposed to forecast the demand at hour 19:00 with unknown predictor variables. Empirical results from this study show that modelling hours individually during the peak period results in more accurate peak forecasts compared to forecasting daily peak electricity demand. The performance of the proposed models for hour 19:00 were compared and the generalized additive model with tensor product interactions was found to be the best tting model. / NRF

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / This thesis proposes a family of non-isolated bidirectional converter in order to interface dc and ac variables. Such power electronics solutions guarantee: (i) bidirectional power flow between dc and ac converter sides, (ii) independent control in both converter sides, (iii) high level of integration with a reduction of one power switch and its drive circuits, (iv) implementation of two functions by using a unique power conversion stage and (v) reduction of the capacitor losses. Despite proposing new power converter solutions, this thesis presents an analysis of the converters in terms of pulse-width-modulation (PWM) strategy, dc-link capacitor variables, and suitable a control approach. Solutions for single-phase, three-phase and three-phase four-wire systems are proposed by employing a converter leg with three switches. A possible application of this converter is in Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) systems and interfacing dc microgrid with a utility grid. In addition to the new power electronics converters proposed in this thesis, an experimental setup has been developed for validation of the simulated outcomes. The proof-of-concept experimental setup is constituted by: DSP, Drivers & Integrating Board, Power Supply and, Power Converter & Heat-Sink .