This thesis deals with the new flow-based computation method used in the Central Western Europe Area. This is done on the financial side. The main aim is to produce some robust methods for predicting. Two approaches are used: the first one is based on a deterministic and algorithmic method involving the study of the interaction between the fundamentals and the prices. The other one is a more statistical approach based on a time series modeling of the French flow-based prices. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages which will be discussed in the following. The work is mainly based on global simulated data provided by CASC in their implementation phase of the flow-base in Western Europe. / Denna avhandling behandlar den nya flödesbaserade beräkningsmetoden som används i Centrala Västeuropa på ekonomisidan. Målet är att producera tillförlitliga metoder för prognostisering. Två tillvägagångssätt kan användas: den första är baserad på en deterministisk och algoritmisk metod som inbegriper studier av interaktionen mellan fundamenta och priserna. Den andra är en mer statistisk metod som bygger på en tidsseriemodellering av de franska flödesbaserade priserna. Båda tillvägagångssätten har fördelar och nackdelar som kommer som diskuteras i det följande. Arbetet är främst baserade på globala simulerade data från CASC i genomförandefasen av flödesbasen i Västeuropa.

Spain’s rapid implementation of renewable energy has been described as a success but thegovernmental cost associated to this rapid implementation has grown significantly. The purposeof this report is to investigate Spain’s electricity market, its current situation and present it, usingthe Swedish system as a reference.The report commences with a presentation of the Spanish and the Swedish electricity markets,followed by a chapter where they are compared. The renewable electricity production and theassociated development during the last decade is one focus of the comparison. The other focus ishow the costs of the subsidy systems have evolved and how they are connected to the differentenergy sources. Two sources, wind and solar, receives a higher interest than the others.Wind power shows a strong development in electricity production and contributes to asignificant part of the Spanish electricity mix. The costs of subsidies connected to the windpower reflect the produced electricity. Wind power in Sweden has had a rapid development overthe last two years and the subsidies costs are aligned with the electricity production through theuse of a quota system.There are great differences between the two countries regarding solar power. Sweden has hardlyany, while Spain has a noticeable contribution of electricity from solar power to its electricitymix. Solar power has an even more noticeable share in the Spanish subsidy system. The highsubsidies to solar power, which have not followed the reduced investment costs of equipment inrecent years, have led to a high degree of participation which has led to soaring costs for thesystem. Spain’s subsidy system is based on fixed earnings and variable costs and in combinationwith higher than expected costs, an annual deficit between the earnings and cost has been createdfor the government. This yearly deficit has increased and the Spanish government is now in debtto the five largest energy suppliers. The Swedish subsidy system carries its own costs and theSwedish government does not have a financial risk associated with the system.This study shows that the Spanish subsidy system has been too generous towards solar powerwhich is a large part, but not the only one, to the country’s huge deficit and debt. Sweden, withits quota system constructed without fixed earnings, does not risk creating a debt similar toSpain’s. Spain’s large part of wind power and how the volatile power is regulated could be ofinterest for Sweden which aims to increase its share of wind power in the future. This study findthe answer to how Spain copes with its high share of intermittent power production in that itaccepts a lower efficiency in its gas turbines in order to regulate the power output. Sweden, acountry without a large share of gas in its electricity mix, but with a large share of hydro power,uses its hydro capacity to regulate volatility in electricity system. Prior studies have already beenmade in this area with the result that 30 TWh of electricity from wind power, more thanSweden’s goal for 2020 regarding wind power, would be possible to regulate with the presentsystem each year.

In deregulated electricity markets, profit driven electricity retailers compete to supply cheap reliable electricity to electricity consumers, and the electricity consumers have free will to switch between the electricity retailers. The need to maximize the profits of the electricity retailers while minimizing the electricity costs of the electricity consumers has therefore seen a drastic increase in the research of electricity markets. One of the factors that affect the profits of the electricity retailers and the energy cost of the consumers in electricity retail markets is the supply and demand. During high-supply and low-demand periods, the excess electricity if not managed, is wasted. During low-supply high-demand periods, the deficit supply can lead to electricity blackouts or costly electricity because of the volatile electricity wholesale spot market prices. Research studies have shown that electricity retailers can achieve significant profits and reduced electricity costs for their electricity consumers by minimizing the excess electricity and deficit electricity. Existing studies developed load forecasting models that aimed to match electricity supply and electricity demand. These models reached excellent accuracy levels, however due to the high volatility character of load demand and the rise of new electricity consumers, load forecasting alone is unable to mitigate excess and deficit electricity. In other studies, researchers proposed charging the electricity consumers’ batteries with excess electricity during high-supply low-demand periods and supplying their deficit electricity during low-supply high-demand periods. Electricity consumers’ incorporating batteries resulted in minimized excess and deficit electricity, in turn, maximizing the profits for the electricity retailers and minimizing the electricity costs for the electricity consumers. However, the batteries are consumer centric and only provide battery energy for the battery-owned consumer. Electricity consumers without battery energy during low-supply highdemand periods have electricity blackouts or require costly electricity from the electricity wholesale spot market. The peer-to-peer (P2P) energy sharing framework which allows electricity consumers to share their energy resources with one another is a viable solution to allow electricity consumers to share their battery energy. P2P energy sharing is a hot topic in research because of its potential to maximize the electricity retailers’ profits and minimize the electricity consumers’ electricity costs. Due to the increased profits for the electricity retailer and reduced electricity costs for the electricity consumers from implementing battery charging and P2P energy sharing, this dissertation proposes a day-ahead electricity retail market structure in which the electricity retailer supplies consumers’ batteries with excess electricity during high-supply low-demand periods, and during low-supply highdemand periods the electricity retailer discharges the consumers’ batteries to supply their deficit supply or supply their peers’ deficit supply. The electricity retailer aims to maximize its profits and minimize the electricity cost of the electricity consumers in its electricity retail market, by minimizing the excess and deficit electricity. The problem is formulated as a non-linear optimization model and solved using game theory. This dissertation compares the profits of the electricity retailer and electricity costs of the consumers that charge their batteries with excess electricity, discharge their batteries and purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply, with consumers that only charge their batteries with excess electricity but do not share their battery energy with their peers, consumers that only purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply but do not employ a battery, and consumers that neither employ a battery nor purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply. The results show that the consumers that charge their batteries with excess electricity, discharge their batteries and purchase electricity from their peers to supply their deficit supply achieved the lowest electricity cost and highest profits for the electricity retailer. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2020. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / MEng / Unrestricted

Within forecasting electricity pricing, we analyse whether adding various vari- ables improves the predictions, and if shorter time intervals between observa- tions enhance accuracy of the forecasting. Next, we focus on proper selection of lagged observations, which has not been thoroughly covered in the past litera- ture. In addition, many papers studied electricity prices in larger markets (e.g. United States, Australia, Nord Pool, etc.) on datasets limited in scope, with 2-3 years timespan. To address these gaps in literature, we obtain one daily and one hourly dataset, both spanning 6 years (January 1, 2015 - December 31, 2020), from four Central and Eastern European countries - the Czech Repub- lic, the Slovak Republic, Hungary, and Romania. These contain information on the electricity prices, and information on our observed added variables - temperature and cross-border electricity flows. For the forecasting, we use two different methods - Autoregression (AR) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The thorough selection of lagged observations, which we accustom to the closing time of the auction-based electricity market system, serves further studies as a guidance on how to avoid possible errors and inconsistencies in their predictions. In our analyses, both AR and SUR models show that...

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[pt] O mercado de energia do Brasileiro foi decidido com base nas suas características físicas dos anos 90, predominantemente hídrico. Apesar de ainda dominado pela geração hidrelétrica, a participação dessa fonte foi reduzida significativamente, cedendo espaço principalmente para as fontes renováveis intermitentes. Sendo assim, há uma dissonância entre o atual sistema elétrico e aquele que embasou a atual regulação. As hipóteses e aproximações adotadas para a constituição da estrutura regulatória foram baseadas em um sistema com excesso de flexibilidade e alta previsibilidade no curto prazo. A maior participação das renováveis intermitentes, e sua projeção de crescimento nos próximos anos faz com essa estrutura se torne cada vez menos aderente e suas falhas intensificadas. A falta de adaptação pode enfraquecer os sinais econômicos e ameaçar a sustentabilidade e adequabilidade do sistema no longo prazo. A consulta pública CP 33 propôs uma agenda pragmática para auxiliar no processo de modernização do setor, se tornando um dos pilares principais de leis em tramitação no Congresso sobre esse assunto. Apesar do consenso a respeito da necessidade de modernização, principalmente na adoção de um mercado de curto prazo mais competitivo, ainda existem muitas preocupações e questionamentos a respeito dos mecanismos de mercados a serem adotados. A vasta literatura e as experiências internacionais podem auxiliar muito no processo de modernização nacional. Todavia, as particularidades de cada sistema, como matriz de geração e dimensões territoriais, desafiam qualquer tentativa simplista de compatibilizar o caso Brasileiro com experiências relatadas. Dessa maneira, esse trabalho tem como objetivo 1) definir uma nomenclatura e classificar as estruturas de mercado relevantes, 2) delinear um panorama sistematizado das características que influenciaram a escolha de diferentes mecanismos de mercado 3) comparar os mercados internacionais ao mercado Brasileiro utilizando as nomenclaturas e as características físicas definidas em 1) e 2). Mercados da América do Sul e do Norte, Europa e Nova Zelândia foram selecionados para apresentar as análises comparativas. Dessa maneira, nós contribuímos com um panorama atualizado e padronizado de alguns desenhos mercados internacionais e mecanismos relevantes. Além do mais, nós conscientizamos e discutimos lições relevantes aprendidas com a experiência internacional para apoiar e fomentar a agenda de modernização do mercado Brasileiro. / [en] The Brazilian power-market design features were decided based on the system s physical and economic characteristics observed in the 90s, when the system was remarkably hydro-dominated and the economy experienced large GDP growth rates. Nowadays, the power system s capacity is still hydrodominated, albeit with a significantly lower hydro participation (64 percent), has experienced a sharp growth in variable renewable energy integration, and has faced the impacts of different economic crises. Therefore, some of the approximations and assumptions adopted for the regulatory framework based on the original system s condition and economic reality are not valid anymore. Failing to adapt the regulatory framework to the current system and economic realities may provide poor market signals, possibly threatening the long-run system sustainability. Based on the continued flaws experienced in this country, the need for a market-design review is critical and urgent in Brazil. The public consultation named CP 33 proposed a handful agenda for the Brazilian power sector modernization, which is the backbone of some bills already in progress. Despite the consensus on the modernization agenda, especially on a more short-term-based market-oriented approach, there are still many concerns and questions on which market features should be adopted. The vast literature and international experience in the subject notwithstanding, each system s particularities, challenge any simplistic attempt to match the Brazilian case with previously reported experiences. Thus, this work aims to 1) define a general market design nomenclature and classify relevant market structures, 2) draw a systematized panorama of the physical characteristics that have influenced the selection of different market designs and mechanisms in other similar markets, and 3) compare the Brazilian market design, within a common language using 1) and 2), to the international experience. Markets from South and North America, Europe, and New Zealand were selected to present comparisons between them and Brazil. Based on that, we contribute with an updated and standardized panorama of a few relevant market designs and structures. Additionally, we raise awareness and discuss the relevant lessons learned from the international experience applicable to support and foster the Brazilian market modernization agenda.

The following master thesis is conducted on behalf of The Royal Institute of Technology and Manetos AB with the purpose of investigating potential business markets for the new innovation, the Digital Circuit Breaker (DCB). The DCB is a mean for digitalising the distribution board, which is the middleman between households’ electrical appliances and the electrical grid. Through this digitalisation, a two-way communication between households and the grid can emerge, creating possibilities for demand side flexibility and energy management. The technology also provides more transparency for homeowners and real estate owners into households’ and buildings’ energy consumption, through monitoring and disaggregation. The study found that the energy landscape is facing significant challenges for the future. The integration of more intermittent energy, unpredictable energy consumption, new power consuming technologies and an aging grid were examples of challenges which potentially could jeopardize the security of electric supply. Many of these challenges however were also found to be issues which the DCB could potentially solve. It was also found that power-based tariffs spoke in favour of the DCB. Based on the overall empirical results, the study found that there is a need amongst utilities for demand side flexibility solutions and that there is a need amongst homeowners for electricity transparency and monitoring tools. This gives rise to a situation where the possibility to commercialize the DCB exists. By making the DCB a demand flexibility solution for utilities and a transparency and monitoring tool for homeowners, the needs for both utilities and homeowners can be fulfilled. The recommendations towards Manetos were to focus on the business markets electric utilities, more specifically municipally owned grid companies, and homeowners. It was found that the municipally owned grid companies focused more on socioeconomics than profit based grid companies. Furthermore, the municipally owned grid companies that had powerbased tariffs in place today showed great interest in the DCB as a tool for better managing electrical load and avoiding power peaks. For homeowners it was found that the people who owned electric vehicles or had direct electric heating showed great interest in an electricity management tool such as the DCB. The study also found real estate companies to be a business market of interest, however, not enough interviews were conducted in order to draw conclusions for the markets viability. Therefore, further investigation of the real estate company market is recommended. / Följande examensarbete har utförts på uppdrag av Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan och Manetos AB med syftet att undersöka potentiella affärsmarknader för en ny innovation kallad den Digitala Brytaren (DCB – Digital Circuit Breaker). DCBn är ett verktyg för att digitalisera elskåpet, vilket fungerar som en mellanhand mellan hushåll och elnätet. Denna digitalisering möjliggör för tvåvägskommunikation mellan hushåll och elnät, vilket öppnar upp möjligheter för efterfrågeflexibilitet och bättre energihushållning. Teknologin ökar även transparensen gällande byggnaders energikonsumtion, både för hushåll och fastighetsägare, genom övervakning och dissaggregering. Studien fann att energilandskapet står inför betydande utmaningar inför framtiden. Integrationen av mer intermittent energi, oförutsägbar energikonsumtion, nya teknologier och ett åldrande elnät är några exempel på utmaningar vilka kan komma att äventyra leveranssäkerheten i systemet. Många av dessa utmaningar visade sig dock vara problem som DCBn skulle kunna lösa. Studien fann även att effektbaserade tariffer, vilka idag används som ett verktyg för att motverka höga effektuttag, fungerar som incitament för DCBn och för en mer hållbar energikonsumtion generellt. Baserat på de övergripande empiriska resultaten fann studien att det finns ett behov för efterfrågeflexibilitets lösningar bland elnätsägare, samt ett behov för transparens- och kontroll-verktyg för villaägare. Detta ger möjlighet för att kommersialisera DCBn. Behoven hos både elnätsägare och villaägare kan uppnås genom att paketera DCBn som ett efterfrågeflexibilitets-, transparens- och övervaknings-verktyg. Rekommendationen till Manetos var att fokusera på kundsegmenten elnätsägare, främst de kommunalt ägda, samt villaägare. Studien fann att kommunalägda elnätsägare fokuserade mer på samhällsekonomi är de vinstdrivande elnätsföretagen. Vidare så fann studien att de kommunala elnätsägarna vilka idag använder effekt tariffer, hade ett stort intresse för DCBn som ett verktyg för att minska effekttoppar och uppnå bättre övervakning. För villaägare kunde det ses att de personer som ägde elbilar eller hade direktverkande el i bostaden visade störst intresse för ett verktyg såsom DCBn. Även kundsegmentet fastighetsägare visade sig vara av intresse, dock genomfördes inte ett tillräckligt stort antal intervjuer inom segmentet för att kunna dra slutsatser om marknadens lönsamhet. Därför föreslås undersökning av detta segment för vidare framtida studier, såväl som att undersöka potentialen för DCBn internationellt samt att inkludera ett större antal villaägare i studien.

The phenomenon global warming has necessitated the need for a transition towards more environmentally friendly behaviours. One tool amongst many, recognized by the European Commission as effective to fight global warming is energy communities. Västerås municipality’s project team is exploring the opportunity for their new district, Sätra, to operate as an energy community. This report showcases Sätra's economic, social, and technical circumstances, as well as Sweden's regulatory framework. It examines the potential role of local electricity market and smart grid with an energy community. To obtain the results, the methodology included interviews, document analysis, literature reviews, and a feasibility study. The results revealed that the barriers were lack of definition for energy community, lack of awareness among residents, marginalized groups, intermittency of renewable energy sources, and a lack of funding for initiatives. The incentives and mitigation tactics were to create a definition for 'energy communities,' to establish an umbrella organization, raise awareness, and secure funding. The result was compared with the case study of Sätra, and the Västerås municipality’s project team demonstrated utilization of incentives and mitigation strategies in the technical, regulatory, and economic aspects, indicating a likelihood of feasibility. The aspect in which the team did not utilize incentives and mitigation for the barriers was the social aspect. Local electricity markets were not deemed economically practical, but were acknowledged as resilient and efficient in energy distribution. Smart grid’s role in energy communities was, unanimously agreed upon, to be crucial for its features such as cybersecurity, energy efficiency, integration of renewable energy sources, and flexibility.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第24923号 / エネ博第465号 / 新制||エネ||87(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 MCLELLAN Benjamin, 教授 下田 宏, 教授 宇根﨑 博信 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Emerging technologies, including distributed energy resources (DERs), internet-of-things and advanced distribution management systems, are revolutionizing the power industry. They provide benefits like higher operation flexibility and lower bulk grid dependency, and are moving the modern power grid towards a decentralized, interconnected and intelligent direction. Consequently, the emphasis of the system operation management has been shifted from the supply-side to the demand-side. It calls for a reconsideration of the business model for future retail market operators. To address this need, this dissertation proposes an innovative retail market solution tailored to market environments penetrated with price-responsive DERs. The work is presented from aspects of theoretical study, test-bed platform development, and experimental analysis, within which two topics relevant to the retail market operation are investigated in depth. The first topic covers the modeling of key retail market participants. With regard to price-insensitive participants, fixed loads are treated as the representative. Deep learning-based day-ahead load forecasting models are developed in this study, utilizing both recurrent and convolutional neural networks, to predict the part of demands that keep fixed regardless of the market price. With regard to price-sensitive participants, battery storages are selected as the representative. An optimization-based battery arbitrage model is developed in this study to represent their price-responsive behaviors in response to a dynamic price. The second topic further investigates how the retail market model and pricing strategy should be designed to incentivize these market participants. Different from existing works, this study innovatively proposes a profit-neutral double-price-signal retail market model. Such a design differentiates elastic prosumers, who actively offer flexibilities to the system operation, from normal inelastic consumers/generators, based on their sensitivities to the market price. Two price signals, namely retail grid service price and retail energy price, are then introduced to separately quantify values of the flexibility, provided by elastic participants, and the electricity commodity, sold/bought to/from inelastic participants. Within the proposed retail market, a non-profit retail market operator (RMO) manages and settles the market through determining the price signals and supplementary subsidy to minimize the overall system cost. In response to the announced retail grid service price, elastic prosumers adjust their day-ahead operating schedules to maximize their payoffs. Given the interdependency between decisions made by the RMO and elastic participants, a retail pricing scheme, formulated based on a bi-level optimization framework, is proposed. Additional efforts are made on merging and linearizing the original non-convex bi-level problem into a single-level mixed-integer linear programming problem to ensure the computational efficiency of the retail pricing tool. Case studies are conducted on a modified IEEE 34-bus test-bed system, simulating both physical operations of the power grid and financial interactions inside the retail market. Experimental results demonstrate promising properties of the proposed retail market solution: First of all, it is able to provide cost-saving benefits to inelastic customers and create revenues for elastic customers at the same time, justifying the rationalities of these participants to join the market. Second of all, the addition of the grid service subsidy not only strengthens the profitability of the elastic customer, but also ensures that the benefit enjoyed per customer will not be compromised by the competition brought up by a growing number of participants. Furthermore, it is able to properly capture impacts from line losses and voltage constraints on the system efficiency and stability, so as to derive practical pricing solutions that respect the system operating rules. Last but not least, it encourages the technology improvement of elastic assets as elastic assets in better conditions are more profitable and could better save the electricity bills for inelastic customers. Above all, the superiority of the proposed retail market solution is proven. It can serve as a promising start for the retail electricity market reconstruction. / Doctor of Philosophy / The electricity market plays a critical role in ensuring the economic and secure operation of the power system. The progress made by distributed energy resources (DERs) has reshaped the modern power industry bringing a larger proportion of price-responsive behaviors to the demand-side. It challenges the traditional wholesale-only electricity market and calls for an addition of retail markets to better utilize distributed and elastic assets. Therefore, this dissertation targets at offering a reliable and computational affordable retail market solution to bridge this knowledge gap. Different from existing works, this study assumes that the retail market is managed by a profit-neutral retail market operator (RMO), who oversees and facilitates the system operation for maximizing the system efficiency rather than making profits. Market participants are categorized into two groups: inelastic participants and elastic participants, based on their sensitivity to the market price. The motivation behind this design is that instead of treating elastic participants as normal customers, it is more reasonable to treat them as grid service providers who offer operational flexibilities that benefit the system efficiency. Correspondingly, a double-signal pricing scheme is proposed, such that the flexibility, provided by elastic participants, and the electricity commodity, generated/consumed by inelastic participants, are separately valued by two distinct prices, namely retail grid service price and retail energy price. A grid service subsidy is also introduced in the pricing system to provide supplementary incentives to elastic customers. These two price signals in addition to the subsidy are determined by the RMO via solving a bi-level optimization problem given the interdependency between the prices and reaction of elastic participants. Experimental results indicate that the proposed retail market model and pricing scheme are beneficial for both types of market participants, practical for the network-constrained real-world implementation, and supportive for the technology improvement of elastic assets.