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Incorporating complex systems dynamics in sustainability assessment frameworks : enhanced prediction and management of socio-ecological systems performanceMamouni Limnios, Elena Alexandra January 2008 (has links)
[Truncated abstract] The application of reductionism, breaking down problems to simpler components that can be solved and then aggregating the results, is one of the bases of classical science. However, living organisms, ecosystems, social and economic structures are complex systems, characterised by non-linear interactions between their elements and exhibit emergent properties that are not directly traceable to their components. Sustainability assessment frameworks oversimplify system interactions, achieving limited predictive capacity and causing managerial behavior that may reduce system's ability to adapt to external disturbance. Intrigued by the importance of complexity, we explore the central theme of how complex thinking can influence the understanding and progress towards sustainability. The purpose is to conceptualize the relationship of key terms (such as sustainability, functionality and resilience), and consecutively develop new or adjust existing sustainability frameworks to take into account complex systems interactions. We aim at developing theory and frameworks that can be used to raise awareness of the pitfalls of the growth paradigm and direct towards modest positions when managing complex systems. We seek to define the structural elements that influence system adaptive capacity, allowing identification of early signs of system rigidity or vulnerability and the development of knowledge and techniques that can improve our predictive and managerial ability. The focus has been on a variety of system scales and dynamics. At the collective community level, a number of stakeholder engagement practices and frameworks are currently available. However, there is limited awareness of the complexity challenges among stakeholders, who are commonly directed to a triple bottom line analysis aiming at maximizing a combination of outputs. An attempt is conducted to measure the functionality of the processes underlying a standing stock, in contrast to sustainability measures that only assess the variations of the standing stock itself. We develop the Index of Sustainable Functionality (ISF), a framework for the assessment of complex systems interactions within a large-scale geographic domain and apply it to the State of Western Australia. '...' Finally, we focus on smaller systems scales and develop a methodology for the calculation of Product Ecological Footprint (PEF) including elements from the accounting method of activity based costing. We calculate PEF for three apple production systems and identify significant differences from first stage calculations within the same industry. Cross-industry application will provide a practical way to link individuals' consumption with their ecological impact, reduce misperceptions of products' ecological impacts and develop a market-driven approach to internalizing environmental externalities. At the firm level PEF can be compared with investment costs, resulting in the opportunity to optimize both functions of financial cost and ecological impact in decision making. We have developed methods for incorporating complexity in sustainability assessment frameworks. Further work is required in testing and validating these methodologies at multiple system scales and conditions. Integrating such tools in decision making mechanisms will enhance long-term management of socioecological systems performance.
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Intellectual disability co-occurring with schizophrenia and other psychiatric illness : epidemiology, risk factors and outcomeMorgan, Vera Anne January 2008 (has links)
(Truncated abstract) The aims of this thesis are: (i) To estimate the prevalence of psychiatric illness among persons with intellectual disability and, conversely, the prevalence of intellectual disability among persons with a psychiatric illness; (ii) To describe the disability and service utilisation profile of persons with conjoint disorder; (iii) To examine, in particular, intellectual disability co-occurring with schizophrenia; and (iv) To explore the role of hereditary and environmental (specifically obstetric) risk factors in the aetiology of (i) intellectual disability and (ii) intellectual disability co-occurring with psychiatric illness. This thesis has a special interest in the relationship between intellectual disability and schizophrenia. Where data and sample sizes permit, it explores that relationship at some depth and has included sections on the putative nature of the link between intellectual disability and schizophrenia in the introductory and discussion chapters. To realise its objectives, the thesis comprises a core study focusing on aims (i) (iii) and a supplementary study whose focus is aim (iv). It also draws on work from an ancillary study completed prior to the period of candidacy...This thesis found that, overall, 31.7% of persons with an intellectual disability had a psychiatric illness; 1.8% of persons with a psychiatric illness had an intellectual disability. The rate of schizophrenia, but not bipolar disorder or unipolar major depression, was greatly increased among cases of conjoint disorder: depending on birth cohort, 3.7-5.2% of individuals with intellectual disability had co-occurring schizophrenia. Down syndrome was much less prevalent among conjoint disorder cases despite being the most predominant cause of intellectual disability while pervasive developmental disorder was over-represented. Persons with conjoint disorder had a more severe clinical profile including higher mortality rates than those with a single disability. The supplementary study confirmed the findings in the core body of work with respect to the extent of conjoint disorder, its severity, and its relationship with pervasive development disorder and Down syndrome. Moreover, the supplementary study and the ancillary influenza study indicated a role for neurodevelopmental insults including obstetric complications in the adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes, with timing of the insult a potentially critical element in defining the specific outcome. The supplementary study also added new information on familiality in intellectual disability. It found that, in addition to parental intellectual disability status and exposure to labour and delivery complications at birth, parental psychiatric status was an independent predictor of intellectual disability in offspring as well as a predictor of conjoint disorder. In conclusion, the facility to collect and integrate records held by separate State administrative health jurisdictions, and to analyse them within the one database has had a marked impact on the capacity for this thesis to estimate the prevalence of conjoint disorder among intellectually disabled and psychiatric populations, and to understand more about its clinical manifestations and aetiological underpinnings.
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企業實施環境風險管理對資金成本與財務績效影響之實證分析 / The relationship between environmental risk management and the cost of capital and financial performance張舒雲, Chang, Shu Yun Unknown Date (has links)
本研究探討台灣企業實施環境風險管理與資金成本及財務績效之關係。以ISO14001環境管理系統認證做為實施環境風險管理的指標,研究實施環境風險管理的企業在資金成本與財務績效上是否具有較佳之表現。本研究以截至2011年4月通過ISO14001認證之上市櫃公司為實驗組,以及未曾通過認證之公司為對照組。並分為三部份進行迴歸分析,其主要研究結果如下:
(一) 實施環境風險管理對債劵資金成本有負向影響。但對股東權益資金成本是正向顯著的影響。因股東權益占公司資金比重較大,故加權平均資金成本亦為正向顯著影響。
(二) 在財務績效的部份,大都支持企業實施環境風險管理時,與財務槓桿呈負向關係。並且實驗組均支持通過年數越長對稅盾有負向影響。此外,實驗組全體產業與實驗組非高污染性產業,通過認證時間越長,則對系統性風險有負向顯著影響。但實驗組高污染性產業之環境風險管理與系統性風險則無顯著相關。
(三) 由實驗組與對照組之研究比較,發現支持實施環境風險管理之公司具有較低之大股東持股比。
(四) 根據實驗組之研究,發現公司通過環境風險管理之認證,與外資法人投資比率有正向關係。但實驗組與對照組之比較,通過認證與否則對外資呈負向顯著的關係。實驗組高低汙染性產業比較中,高污染性產業僅通過認證年數與外資投資比率呈顯著相關,但非高污染性產業則不論是否通過認證與通過年數,均與外資投資比率呈正向顯著相關。
關鍵字:ISO14001環境管理系統、環境風險管理、資金成本、財務績效。 / This study investigates the relationship between implementing environmental risk management and cost of capital and financial performance for the public companies in Taiwan. Using the ISO14001 environmental management system certification as the indicator of environmental management, this thesis explores whether the companies implementing the environmental risk management system will possess lower the cost of capital and better financial performance. Among the sample firms, the companies with ISO14001 certification in year 2011 are regarded as the experimental group, and the companies have not been certified as the controlled group. Then this study conducts regression analyses for environmental risk management. The major findings are as follows:
1. Implementation of environmental risk management and the capital cost of bonds have a significantly negative relationship. However, the capital cost of equity shows a significantly positive relationship. Since shareholders' equity is a greater proportion on the company's funds in the sample firms, so the weighted average cost of capital also presents a significantly positive relationship.
2. Regarding the relationship between firm’s financial performance and its environmental risk management, this study finds that financial leverage exhibits a negative relationship. The experimental group supports that the companies with ISO14001 certification for longer years have a negative relationship with their tax shields. Besides, in the entire experimental group and experimental group of non-highly-polluting industries, the systemic risk shows a negative relationship with the longer years of certification. However, environmental risk management and the systemic risk do not present significant correlation in the experimental group of highly-polluting industries.
3. The comparison between the experimental group compared and the controlled group support the hypothesis that implementation of environmental risk management can have a lower ratio of large shareholdings.
4. The study of experimental group supports that foreign investors’ shareholdings have a positive relationship with the firms passing the certification. However, the comparison between the experimental group and the controlled group shows certification and foreign investor negatively related. In highly-polluting industries, the number of certified years is the only factor influencing foreign investors’ shareholdings. In non-highly-polluting industries, passing the certification and number of certified years both are positively associated with foreign investors’ shareholdings.
Keywords:ISO14001 environmental management system, environmental risk management, cost of capital, financial performance.
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Löslighet och transport av sällsynta jordartsmetaller i Källfallsfältets gruvsandsmagasin / Solubility and transport of rare earth elements in the mine tailings of Källfallsfältetde Campos Pereira, Hugo January 2014 (has links)
Löslighet och transport av sällsynta jordartsmetaller i Källfallsfältets gruvsandsmagasin Hugo de Campos Pereira Syftet med detta arbete har varit att kartlägga vilka mekanismer som styr lösligheten av sällsynta jordartsmetaller (eng. rare earth elements, REE) i sulfidhaltig anrikningssand vid den föredetta gruvan Källfallsfältet i Västmanland. För syftet har markvatten- och grundvattenprovtagning utförts, tillsammans med laktester och geokemisk modellering med Visual MINTEQ ver. 3.0. Resultaten visade att sulfidvittring är den främsta processen som styr pH i anrikningssanden, och därmed också indirekt REEs löslighet. Däremot är sulfidvittring ingen källa till REE i sig då ämnena inte föreligger sulfidbundna, något som oxiderat tillgänglighetstest NT ENVIR 006 visade. Istället går REE ut i lösning i anrikningssanden genom vittring av lättvittrade silikatmineral. Vanligtvis betraktas metall bunden i silikatform inte som geokemiskt aktiv. Jämförelser mellan laktester med olika jämviktstid visade att en kinetisk (tidsberoende) faktor föreligger, kopplad till nämnda silikatvittring, som påverkar pH och således också metallöslighet vid laktester på anrikningssanden. Vid jämförelse mellan laktester och halter i anrikningssandens mark- och grundvatten bör denna därmed vägas in. Det pH-statiska laktestet SIS-CEN/TS 14997 visade begränsad möjlighet att undersöka kinetik med anledning av att det utförs under förhållandevis kort tid, 48 timmar. REE- och Cu-halter vid syratitrering (de behandlingar med lägst syratillsatser) och enstegslakning (SIS-CEN ISO/TS 21268-2:2010) visade god, respektive förhållandevis god, överensstämmelse med uppmätta markvattenhalter. Detta visade att syratitrering och enstegslakning är laktest som är tillämpbara, respektive förhållandevis väl tillämpbara, för att uppskatta markvattenhalter i anrikningssanden. Specieringsmodellering med Visual MINTEQ ver. 3.0 visade att pH och DOC är de viktigaste parametrarna som styr REEs speciering i anrikningssandens mark-, grund och ytvatten. Samtliga REE bildar starka komplex med löst organiskt material, men koncentrationerna av DOC var generellt sett låga. I sura sulfatrika mark-, grund och ytvatten domineras specieringen av lösta sulfatkomplex, huvudsakligen (REE)SO4+, följt av fria hydratiserade joner som näst vanligaste förekomstform. Dessa resultat överensstämmer väl med tidigare modelleringsstudier av REEs speciering i sura sulfatrika vatten resulterande från gruvavfall. Med bakgrund av detta och av att REEs ekotoxicitet verkar överensstämma med den fria jon-modellen (eng. free ion model) förväntas REE uppvisa högre toxicitet vid låga pH-värden. / Solubility and transport of rare earth elements in the mine tailings of Källfallsfältet Hugo de Campos Pereira The mechanisms which govern the solubility of rare earth elements (REEs) in sulfide-containing tailings at the former mine site of Källfallsfältet (Västmanland, Sweden) were studied by the means of soil water and ground water sampling, leaching tests and geochemical modeling using Visual MINTEQ ver. 3.0. The results showed that weathering of sulfides is the primary process governing pH in the tailings, and thus also REE solubility. However, weathering of sulfides is no source for REE in itself since the elements are not bound in sulfides, which the oxidized availability test NT ENVIR 006 showed. Instead REE are released into solution by weathering of easily weathered silicates. Usually, metal bound in silicate form is not considered geochemically active. A kinetic (time dependent) factor, associated with the weathering of silicates, was found to affect pH and thus also metal solubility in leaching tests performed on the tailings. The standardized pH static leaching test (SIS-CEN/TS 14997) showed limitations in observing kinetic effects because of its relatively short equilibration time (48 h). Thus, in future studies with similar materials, leaching test kinetics should be taken into account when comparing leached concentrations with field measured concentrations. Acid titration and one step batch test (SIS-CEN ISO/TS 21268-2:2010) proved to be applicable and relatively well applicable to the tailings, respectively, in order to estimate soil solution concentrations. Speciation calculations using Visual MINTEQ ver. 3.0 showed that pH and DOC concentration are the most important factors which affect REE speciation in soil solution, ground water and surface water associated with the tailings. In acid sulfate rich solutions, low in DOC, speciation is dominated by sulfate complexes, mainly (REE)SO4+, followed by free dissolved ions as the second most common form. These results are in accordance with previous modeling studies of REE speciation in acid sulfate rich waters resulting from tailings. This, together with previous results showing that REE ecotoxicity seems to follow the free ion model, implies that the toxicity of the elements is expected to increase with decreasing pH value.
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影響大眾環境風險認知及政策支持因素之跨層次分析 / Predicting Environmental Risk Perception and Policy Support: A Multilevel Model蘇民欣, Su, Min Hsin Unknown Date (has links)
本研究旨在探討利己及利他價值觀如何影響大眾環境風險認知及政策支持,並進一步探討其影響是否受到風險規模、文化取向、及國家發展程度之影響。資料來源為世界價值觀調查(World Value Survey)第五波資料,以Schwartz的「人類價值觀理論」為理論基礎,測量個人利己及利他價值觀,並依風險規模將環境風險認知分為全球性及地區性。統計方法使用層級迴歸,同時檢驗國家層級變項(文化取向及發展程度)對個人層級變項之跨層級調節效果。研究結果顯示大眾對環境風險的感知及反應,受到其價值觀的影響,但針對不同規模的風險議題,在不同文化取向及發展程度的國家,其影響有顯著不同。 / Environmental issues have received much public and media attention abroad and at home. With the increased environmental awareness, there is a strong call for relevant policies and regulations aimed at sustainable development. To ensure sufficient public support, it is crucial to develop a fuller understanding of factors and processes underlying people’s willingness to help protect the environment when making decisions as consumers and citizens.
This study aims to predict people’s environmental risk perception and policy support as a function of their values. Specifically, Schwartz’s self-transcendence and self-enhancement value clusters will be examined as determinants to understand why few people choose to make collectively beneficial decisions.
Three extensions were made. First, instead of focusing on low-cost lifestyle changes, this study examined policy support that requires substantial personal costs. Second, global and local environmental risk perceptions are treated as two qualitatively different constructs according to their geographical scales. Finally, this study moves beyond an individualistic approach, incorporating country-level forces into the model.
Information about the individuals are based on variables measured in the World Value Survey (2005), while cultural orientations and levels of development are measured by the Schwartz Value Survey (2005) and the Human Development Index (2005) respectively. Hierarchical regression are employed, with the nature of interaction being revealed by plotting techniques.
The results suggested that perception and responses to environmental risks reflect their most basic value priorities and life goals. Consequently, environmental persuasive messages are most effective when intended behaviors are framed as fulfilling important life goals. However, the effects of person-level constructs greatly vary with social contexts and issue scales, suggesting that different strategies are preferred when dealing with risks associated with different geographical frame. Finally, cultural orientations and levels of development will influence the way members of a society respond to environmental threats. Practical implications for environmental risk communication are proposed and discussed.
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The Legal Notion of Environmental Damage and a Peculiar Argumentation of the Court of Environmental Enforcement / La Noción Jurídica de Daño Ambiental y una Peculiar Argumentación del Tribunal de Fiscalización AmbientalPuente Brunke, Lorenzo de la 10 April 2018 (has links)
A proper normative interpretation is undoubtedly one of the pillars of Law, all this thanks that brings a juridical security level and predictability to all the parties involved. In that sense the author submits a critique about the criteria that have been emitted by the diverse public organisms in environmental material, specifically with the juridical concept of«environmental damage» in the excess inside Maximum Permissible Limit. Also the article presents an objective focus through a temporal development of diverse administrative resolutions, which are established as incorrect on the basis of a wide and forced interpretation about environmental damage, concept applied not only in a case with real effects, but also potential ones. Finally, this is provided by the author as a defect, that although actually exists a remedial intention, this must begin from a clear conceptual framework in normative and resolutive topics by equal. / Una debida interpretación normativa, se constituye sin duda alguna, como uno de los pilares del Derecho, ello gracias a que otorga un nivel de seguridad jurídica y predictibilidad a todas la partes involucradas. Es en ese sentido, que el autor sostiene una crítica sobre el criterio que han venido emitiendo en instancia administrativa diversos organismos públicos en materia ambiental, específicamente con respecto al concepto jurídico de «daño ambiental» en el exceso de los Límites Máximos Permisibles (LMP). El artículo nos presenta un enfoque objetivo con un desarrollo temporal de diversas resoluciones administrativas, las cuales manifiesta, son erróneas en base a una interpretación amplia y forzada de lo que es daño ambiental, concepto que se aplica no solo para aquellos supuestos con efectos reales, sino también potenciales. Finalmente, ello es señalado por el autor como un defecto, que si bien en la actualidad existe una intención de subsanarlo, esto debe partir principalmente de un marco conceptual claro tanto en el ámbito normativo como resolutivo.
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La auditoría social como mecanismo de control de la responsabilidad social de las empresas: la metodología de Theodore J. Kreps / A auditoria social como instrumento de controle da responsabilidade social das empresas: a metodologia de Theodore J. Kreps / Social audit as a control mechanism of the firms’ social responsibility: the methodology of Theodore J. KrepsLima Pinel, Maria de Fátima de, Cosenza, José Paulo, Llena Macarulla, Fernando 10 April 2018 (has links)
The objective of this paper is to develop an analysis that shows the divergent perspectives arising from the differences between the treatment established under the concept of Social Responsibility and the concept of Social Audit in the measurement, recognition and disclosure of social and environmental elements in business practices.Thus, the main differences that arise from the application of both approaches, noting the need for the firm should report on their social responsibility in such a way that is broader and more transparent to the society where they operateand interact in financial, social and environmental terms.Hence, this article reviews the work of Kreps to be a comprehensive overview of the usefulness of their methodology asa control mechanism of social responsibility of companies.For this purpose, this paper shows the study of Theodore J. Kreps that was the first academic research that applied the social audit methodology. Hence, this article develops a review of the Kreps’ research was developed to be a comprehen- sive overview of the usefulness of his approach as a mechanism for control of firm’s Social Responsibility.The results show that the contribution of Kreps is to propose a methodology that represents a structured communica- tion process by independent agents that are outside the area of influence of business. This means a contribution to the literature because the model proposed by Kreps, unlike traditional Social Responsibility reports (made internal from the inner sphere of companies), is developing from the external environment, promoting collaboration with other firmsand economic agents sharing resources and thus providing social benefits for the entire community. / Este trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo principal realizar un análisis que muestre las divergentes perspectivas originadas por las diferencias existentes entre el tratamiento establecido bajo el concepto de responsabilidad social y el concepto de auditoría social en la medición, reconocimiento y publicación de los elementos sociales y medioambientales en las prácticas empresariales.De este modo, se identificarán las principales diferencias que se originan de la aplicación de ambos abordajes, señalando la necesidad de la empresa de informar sobre su responsabilidad social de forma más amplia y transparente para la socie- dad donde actúa e interacciona, en términos financieros, sociales y medioambientales.Para tal efecto, vamos a efectuar un análisis del estudio desarrollado por Theodore J. Kreps, que fue la primera investigación académica donde se aplicó efectivamente una metodología de auditoría social. De ahí que el presente artículo realiza una revisión del trabajo de Kreps para tenerse una visión integral de la utilidad de su metodología como un mecanismo de control de la responsabilidad social de las empresas.Los resultados muestran que la contribución de Kreps se hace por proponer una metodología que representa un proceso de informe estructurado por agentes independientes que están fuera del área de influencia de las empresas. Esto signi- fica un aporte a la literatura porque el modelo propuesto por Kreps, diferentemente de los tradicionales informes de responsabilidad social (elaborados desde el ámbito interno de las empresas), se desarrolla a partir del entorno externo, promoviendo interrelaciones con otras empresas y agentes que comparten recursos y ofrecen beneficios sociales paratoda la comunidad. / Este artigo tem como principal objetivo efetuar uma análise que evidencia as perspectivas divergentes decorrentes dasdiferenças entre o tratamento instituído no âmbito do conceito de Responsabilidade Social e o conceito de Auditoria Social na mensuração, reconhecimento e divulgação dos aspectos sociais e ambientais nas atividades empresariais.Neste sentido, serão identificadas as principais diferenças que surgem a partir da aplicação de ambas as abordagens, apontando para a necessidade de a empresa informar sobre a sua responsabilidade social, em termos financeiros, social e ambiental, de forma mais ampla e transparente para a sociedade onde desenvolve suas atividades.Nessa perspectiva, realizaremos uma análise do estudo de Theodore J. Kreps, que foi a primeira pesquisa acadêmica onde, efetivamente, foi aplicada uma metodologia de auditoria social. Assim, este artigo apresenta uma revisão da obra de Kreps, visando obter uma abordagem abrangente sobre a utilidade de sua metodologia como mecanismo de controle da responsabilidade social das empresas.Os resultados mostram que a contribuição de Kreps residiu em propor uma metodologia que representa um processo de comunicação estruturado por agentes independentes, fora da área de influência das empresas.Isto significa uma contribuição para a literatura, pois o modelo proposto por Kreps, ao contrário dos tradicionais rela- tórios de responsabilidade social (elaborados no contexto interno das empresas), é desenvolvido a partir do ambiente externo, promovendo relações com outras empresas e agentes que compartilham recursos e propiciam benefícios sociaispara a comunidade como um todo.
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Sistemas inteligentes aplicados à análise de riscos ambientesFrancisco Sales de Albuquerque Filho 17 October 2012 (has links)
Este trabalho aplica técnicas da área de inteligência artificial (IA) com o intuito de prever e classificar riscos ambientais, com o foco no problema da qualidade do ar. Para prever os riscos, dados foram adquiridos acerca das concentrações gasosas de determinados poluentes. Tais concentrações, denominadas de indicadores da qualidade do ar, são regulamentadas por várias legislações ao redor do mundo, inclusive a do Brasil. Estes dados foram empregados em um modelo que consiste de duas técnicas de IA: redes neurais artificiais e otimização por enxame de partículas. O resultado do modelo é a previsão de um dia adiante das concentrações gasosas dos indicadores da qualidade do ar. As previsões são usadas como entradas para a modelagem de riscos. A modelagem de riscos correlaciona as previsões dos poluentes observados para obter a qualidade do ar e o risco que tal qualidade oferece à saúde humana. O modelo de risco é baseado em lógica nebulosa, uma terceira técnica de IA. Ao término do trabalho, dois resultados foram alcançados. O primeiro foi o modelo de previsões que obteve resultados com um bom nível de acuidade. Em seguida, o modelo de riscos foi capaz de alcançar uma classificação coerente dos riscos ambientais. / In order to forecast and classify environmental risks, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques were applied to the air quality problem. Predetermined gaseous pollutant
concentration data were acquired with the intent of predicting the risks. Such concentrations are denominated air quality indicators, and are regulated all around the world, including by brazilian law. The data concerning these indicators were used in a model that consists of two
AI techniques: artificial neural networks and particle swarm optimization. The air quality indicators concentration prediction resulted in one day ahead values. The risk modeling utilizes the predictions as inputs values, correlating them in order to obtain the resulting air quality and, the risk that such quality has upon the human health. The risk model is based on a third AI technique, called fuzzy logic. The present work obtained two main results. The first was the accurate forecasts made by the prediction model. The second was the achievement of a coherent classification of the risks.
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Sistema de inferência fuzzy para classificação de impactos ambientais gerados por postos revendedores de combustíveisFlávio Henrique Souza Santos 06 April 2015 (has links)
Um sistema de inferência fuzzy (SIF) para avaliação do grau de impacto da contaminação ambiental gerada por vazamentos em Postos Revendedores de Combustíveis (PRC) foi desenvolvido neste trabalho. Para obtenção do Índice de Impacto Ambiental por Vazamento em Postos Revendedores de Combustíveis (IIAVPRC) foram usadas dezessete variáveis linguísticas de entrada: tipo do contaminante, volume vazado, área impactada, estado físico do contaminante,
existência de barreiras de contenção, topografia do terreno, emissão de gases, proximidade de rios/córregos, proximidade de poços artesianos, espessura do aquífero, precipitação anual, potencial de inundação, proximidade com áreas residenciais, proximidade com áreas comerciais, proximidade com áreas rurais e de agronegócio, proximidade de escolas e/ou creches e proximidade com áreas de
preservação ambiental - agrupadas em índices parciais, de acordo com a fonte do contaminante, a propagação do contaminante e o local da contaminação. O método de inferência fuzzy de Mamdani foi utilizado para mapeamento das variáveis linguísticas de entrada e saída, usando uma base composta por 112 regras, baseada no conhecimento de especialistas e funções de pertinência triangulares.
Quanto maior o IIAV-PRC - que varia entre 19,9 e 100 - maior o grau de contaminação da área estudada, indicando uma maior urgência no processo de decisão sobre a intervenção/remediação da área contaminada. O SIF desenvolvido foi utilizado com sucesso em estudo de caso de vazamento de 3.000 litros de óleo diesel, decorrente do rompimento da tubulação do sistema de abastecimento subterrâneo de combustível de um PRC, localizado na região metropolitana do
Recife, estado de Pernambuco, Brasil, apresentando IIAV-PRC igual 63,7 - classificado como passivo ambiental grave. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que o IIAV-PRC pode ser utilizado - por órgãos fiscalizadores e/ou consultores e/ou arrendatários e/ou proprietários e/ou distribuidoras - como ferramenta de apoio à avaliação de impactos ambientais gerados por vazamentos em PRC e à tomada de
decisões sobre ações de remediação das áreas impactadas. / A fuzzy inference system (FIS) to assess the environmental impact of contamination level generated by leaks in Stations Fuel Dealers (SFD) was developed in this work. An Environmental Impact Index for Leak in Stations Fuel Dealers (EIIL-SFD) were obtained using seventeen input linguistic variables: type of contaminant, leaked volume, impacted area, the contaminant physical condition, existence of containment barriers, topography land, greenhouse gas emissions, proximity to rivers/streams, proximity of wells, thickness of the aquifer, annual precipitation, flood potential, proximity to residential areas, proximity to shopping areas, proximity to rural areas and agribusiness, proximity to schools and/or nurseries and proximity to areas of environmental preservation - grouped in partial indexes, according to the source of the contaminant, the propagation of the contaminant and the site of contamination. The fuzzy inference Mamdani method was used for mapping input and output linguistic variables, using a base composed of 112 rules, based on expert knowledge and triangular membership functions. The higher the EIIL-SFD which range between 19.9 and 100 - greater the degree of contamination of the study area, indicating a greater urgency in decision-making on intervention/remediation of the contaminated area. The SIF developed was used successfully in case study of 3000-liter diesel fuel leak, due to the pipeline disruption of the underground fuel supply system of a SFD, located in the metropolitan region of Recife, state of Pernambuco, Brazil, presenting EIIL-SFD equal 63.7 - classified as serious environmental damage with a fine of application. The results suggest that the IIAV-PRC can be used - by regulatory agencies and/or consultants and / or tenants and / or owners and / or
distributors - as a support tool for the assessment of environmental impact generated by leaks in PRC and the taking decisions about remediation actions of impacted areas.
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Missing links in the genesis of type 1 diabetes : A geographical approach to the case of enteroviruses in the Nordic regionVan der Velde, Lode January 2018 (has links)
Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease that destroys the bodies’ insulin producing beta-cells. The disease is understood to be triggered in genetically susceptible individuals by environmental factors. While the genetic side of the etiological model has to some degree been uncovered, there is no clear understanding of which environmental factors play a role in the disease process. Several hypotheses claim to explain the development of T1D, of which enteroviral infections show the most promise. According to this hypothesis high prevalence of enteroviral infections would also mean high incidence rates of T1D. This study focused on four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) that as late as 2017 were found in the top 10 countries for incidence rate of childhood-onset T1D in the world. Incidence rates of T1D and prevalence of enteroviruses were mapped and geographically analyzed according to the principles of spatial epidemiology, after which correlation coefficients were calculated. In doing so the study tried to answer to which extent the prevalence of enteroviruses could explain the regional variations in T1D. For all countries no significant correlation was found, but increasing sample size, by grouping countries, showed considerably different outcomes with a small positive correlation in the case of Norway and Finland.
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