<p>The thesis aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrology of four semi-urban watersheds in southern Ontario. The study is mainly concerned with future changes in climate variables and flow regimes. The study also assesses future changes in the frequency and magnitude of peak and low flows. The hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed using a couple of climate and hydrological models. Three regional climate models (RCMs), namely, Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), United States Regional Climate Model 3 (RCM3), United Kingdom Hadley Regional Model 3 (HRM3) were used to extract raw climate variables. The raw RCM data were corrected using a bias correction method. The method performance statistics and the nonparametric test results revealed that the bias corrected climate variables followed the patterns of the observed climate variables for all weather stations. Future climate scenario was then simulated and analyses show increases in annual precipitation about 5-8% and increases in mean annual daily mean temperature about 2.6-3.2 oC. Three hydrological models (namely HBV, MAC-HBV, and SAC-SMA) were used for flow simulation. The models' validation results show a good agreement with the observed flow with a Nash Sutcliffe efficiency around 0.49-0.75 and a correlation coefficient of around 0.7-0.8 for all sub-basins. The three hydrologic models coupled with the bias corrected RCMs data were used to simulate current and future flow. For future period (2050s), the models predicted increasing winter flow and decreasing spring, summer and autumn flows. Mean annual flow shows slight to moderate changes. Significant increases in peak and low flow magnitude are predicted for higher return periods (20-100 years). Overall, the effects of projected future changes in precipitation and temperature clearly govern the significant changes in seasonal and annual flows, peak and low flow magnitudes and frequencies. Using three hydrologic and three climate models projections, a comprehensive picture of probable hydrologic impact of climate change was assessed in the study area. The wide range of predicted changes will have significant implications for future water resources development in the selected semi-urban watersheds.</p> / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

<p><strong>Background and objectives</strong>: Physiotherapists provide conservative treatment for neck pain utilizing manual therapies (MT), including spinal manipulation. Adverse events (AE) have been associated with manipulation provided mainly by other professions. Physiotherapy specific data are lacking. Definitions of AEs following MT require clear standardized criteria informed by both practitioners and patients. The objectives of this thesis were to: a) establish practice patterns of spinal manipulation in Canadian manipulative physiotherapists (CMPTs), b) establish patients’ perceptions of an AE related to MT and c) pilot the collection of AE data reported by practitioners and patients. <strong>Methods</strong>: For the first objective, multiple linear regression of survey data determined the association between experience and frequency of use of manipulation amongst CMPTs. For the second objective, Poisson regression identified predictors of patients more likely to report the occurrence of an AE. The final objective utilized descriptive statistics of patient and practitioner reported AE to assess feasibility for a future large-scale study. <strong>Results</strong>: For the first, increased experience was associated with increased use of upper cervical manipulation in males (14% more often for every 10 years after certification; beta 1.37, (95% confidence interval) (0.89,1.85) pConclusion: Manipulation by CMPTs remains a valued option as experience increases. Adverse events reported by patients are influenced by expectations. A large cohort study attempting to accurately define and measure AE rates following manipulation will be challenging to perform in private practice settings.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

<p> In this thesis we investigate the dynamical effect of a second generation of stellar formation in globular clusters in the context of the anomalous horizontal branch of NGC 2808. The horizontal branch of NGC 2808 is bifurcated in colour and exhibits an extended blue tail. This morphology can be explained if the blue tail stars have an enhanced helium content due to cluster self-enrichment. Specifically it has been proposed that NGC 2808 has experienced two distinct generations of star formation. The first generation has a top-heavy IMF, enhanced in 3 - 5Mo stars, and would produce many AGB stars within the first 200 Myrs of its life. The second generation then forms out of the helium-rich ejecta of the AGB stars and goes on to produce the blue tail in the horizontal branch that is currently observed in NGC 2808.</p> <p> We use three types of simulations to investigate this scenario. For a control model we run a simulation with a Salpeter IMF and a single generation. We then run models with a top-heavy IMF and a single generation and models with a top-heavy IMF and two generations. In the two generation models we also investigate the effect of concentration by examining simulations with two different length scales.</p> <p> We find that the models with the top-heavy IMF and a single generation are subject to extensive mass-loss in their early phases due to the large number of intermediate-mass stars and are less strongly affected by two-body relaxation than simulations with a Salpeter IMF. The models with two generations appear to be dynamically stable and long-lived objects, at least in their early stages. They seem to be observationally indistinguishable from single-generation clusters with Salpeter IMFs on the basis of their dynamics. The stellar populations of the two-generation clusters are found to have a much higher fraction of C-O white dwarfs than clusters with a Salpeter IMF. We find no evidence that these bodies will be preferentially scattered out of the system and they should remain part of the cluster until it dissolves after core collapse. The abundance of white dwarfs would provide an observational method of identifying two generation cluster candidates.</p> <p> Overall we find the two-generation scenario to be plausible on the basis of dynamics but due to the overabundance of white dwarfs produced by the top-heavy IMF and based on other studies of the chemistry of AGB stars we conclude that this scenario is unlikely to be the sole explanation for globular cluster self-enrichment.</p> / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

yes / This article highlights and analyses a hitherto largely neglected dimension to the growing agency of large developing countries in global affairs: their hosting of international sports mega-events. Why are large developing countries hosting sports mega-events and what does this contemporary phenomenon tell us about the significance of, for example, the Olympics and the World Cup in global affairs? We explore these questions through brief examination of the cases of the three most active sports mega-event hosting states in recent times: Brazil, China and South Africa. The 2008 Beijing Olympics, the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, and the upcoming 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games in Brazil provide interesting examples with which to explore developing country agency in the international system and in particular the discursive basis of that agency. We see the hosting of sports mega-events as the practice of public diplomacy by states to both demonstrate existing soft power capability as well as pursue its further enhancement.

What capacities are needed for effective response to compound events? And to what extent do these capacities exist within a selection of Swedish municipalities? Compound events are understood as when multiple crises occur simultaneously or in close succession within a geographic area. Scientists in the natural sciences emphasize that the occurrence of compound events will become more common in the future and request knowledge on how they should be managed. The identified capabilities considered particularly relevant to compound events are; awareness, collaboration, flexibility, planning, exercises, resources, and anchoring. The empirical study found that the capability most prevalent among the studied municipalities was awareness, 15 of 17 municipalities. 13 municipalities demonstrated anchoring, about half of the municipalities demonstrated collaboration, flexibility, planning and exercises, and resources was found in only one of the municipalities. Based on the policy cycle it can be observed that a majority of the municipalities are in the initial stage of the cycle, which is identifying the problem. The steps towards implementing and allocate resources to strengthen the necessary capabilities vary between the municipalities but have not been taken to any significant extent. Therefore, it can be concluded that the municipalities lack relevant capabilities to manage compound events, which becomes problematic due to the extensive disruptions and consequences they cause in the society. The contribution of this study is a theoretical framework containing relevant capabilities for managing compound events, as well as an empirical description of how these capabilities appear within the studied municipalities. The study concludes with suggestions for future research focusing specifically on a deeper understanding of the capabilities within the framework of the policy cycle.

Despite advancements in glass facade systems and rigorous building codes requirements, glass façades often sustain damage or breaches during extreme wind events. This study aims to establish a framework that identifies a multitude of characteristics in common glass façade systems that may contribute to performance of a buildings with glass facades during natural wind disasters. Through a comprehensive analysis of damaged structures, common characteristics susceptible to damage after such events were identified. These characteristics served as a catalyst to explore other characteristic that may affect the performance of a structure's facade during extreme wind events. The identified characteristics were categorized into three groups: architectural components, structural components, and environmental. Proposed quantifiable methods aim to obtain qualitative measurements of existing glass facades. In the end, this thesis contributes to the broader goal of understanding the performance of glass facades during extreme wind events. / Master of Science / Despite advances in building design and construction standards, glass on buildings remain vulnerable to damage during severe windstorms. This study aims to develop a system that identifies key factors that contribute to a building's glass façade system during natural disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes. By analyzing data from damaged structures, common characteristics were identified that are prone to damage during extreme wind events. These findings have led to explore other factors that may impact a facade's performance in such situations. These factors were categorized into three main groups: architectural features, structural elements, and environmental considerations. The proposed methods obtain a numeral value that is measured from existing structures. Ultimately, this research aims to improve the understanding of glass facades from challenges posed by severe weather events.

The purpose of this study was twofold--first was to investigate how the addition of Channel One to the school day influences student interest in current events. Secondly, to determine how teachers integrate the study of current events into the curriculum. A suburban county school division in the western part of Virginia was selected for the study. The population for this study consists of three groups: (1) all teachers on the faculty at the junior high school and senior high school serving as test sites, (2) all eighth grade Civics students at the junior high school test site, and (3) all twelfth grade U.S. Government students at the senior high school test site. Data was collected via two questionnaires. The responses to the questionnaires was tabulated by calculating percentages to provide data on the research questions. Student relationships considered important to the study were: the differences that exist between students concerning their news habits; opinions about Channel One; reactions to the commercials; and taught and a positive or negative view of the program; the treatment of Channel One in the classroom: and how they judge the quality of the program. Both teachers and students believe students take a greater interest in current events as a result of watching Channel One. The teachers claim Channel One to be an effective tool for instruction in the classroom. Teachers primarily use Channel One for current events discussions. But few integrate the news and information presented into their lessons. Social studies teachers make much greater use of the program than non-social studies teachers. The study concluded that Channel One is perceived as a success. / Ed. D.

The present study examined a social marketing approach to a health promotion program in stress management education that combined various aspects of large scale mass-market campaigns and individually tailored interventions. The study was conducted in two major phases using two groups from the main population of retired university faculty members. The intervention was a series of stress management seminars which was presented in each phase. Program evaluation took place at several intervals throughout the study. The first phase of the study served to assess the retirees' needs and to develop the program content and delivery style by using the target population's administrative committee. This committee became the focus group. The presentation of the stress management seminars to the focus group was specifically tailored to the group through frequent interactions and participation by the group members. On evaluation, the program was shown to be effective on a number of dimensions, but it was also labor intensive. A second phase was conducted on a larger sample from the target population of retirees. The sample was found to be equivalent to the focus group on demographic variables, stress levels, and stress management practices. This phase utilized the same program content that was developed in the first phase, but further examined program delivery. Two styles of program delivery were compared. The first was a didactic, lecture-style frequently used in large scale educational campaigns; the second was an interactive, discussion style, used more frequently in individual interventions. Overall, the program participants from both phases improved in their abilities to identify their stress symptoms, stress management strategies that they felt they would use, and increased their levels of perceived control over their stress. Factor analysis was one method used to evaluate program effectiveness and to replicate the factor structure of coping strategies from another study. The utility of factor analysis as an assessment procedure was developed and supported. No major significant differences between delivery styles were found. Thus, indirect tailoring of the program for the target population through the representative focus group was as effective as directly tailoring the program with the target population. Both the interactive and didactic approaches can be integrated into a single educational program to obtain an optimal combination of cost-effectiveness and informativeness. Once the program content was developed through the intensive process of tailoring in the first phase, the more efficient didactic delivery style could be used equally successfully with a matched population. Clinically, the study served as a cost-effective prototype of a stress-management education program for the mass-market. / Ph. D.

Nowcasting – short-term forecasting using current observations – is a key challenge that human activities have to face on a daily basis. We heavily rely on short-term meteorological predictions in domains such as aviation, agriculture, mobility, and energy production. One of the most important and challenging task for meteorology is the nowcasting of extreme events, whose anticipation is highly needed to mitigate risk in terms of social or economic costs and human safety. The goal of this thesis is to contribute with new machine learning methods to improve the spatio-temporal precision of nowcasting of extreme precipitation events. This work relies on recent advances in deep learning for nowcasting, adding methods targeted at improving nowcasting using ensembles and trained on novel original data resources. Indeed, the new curated multi-year radar scan dataset (TAASRAD19) is introduced that contains more than 350.000 labelled precipitation records over 10 years, to provide a baseline benchmark, and foster reproducibility of machine learning modeling. A TrajGRU model is applied to TAASRAD19, and implemented in an operational prototype. The thesis also introduces a novel method for fast analog search based on manifold learning: the tool leverages the entire dataset history in less than 5 seconds and demonstrates the feasibility of predictive ensembles. In the final part of the thesis, the new deep learning architecture ConvSG based on stacked generalization is presented, introducing novel concepts for deep learning in precipitation nowcasting: ConvSG is specifically designed to improve predictions of extreme precipitation regimes over published methods, and shows a 117% skill improvement on extreme rain regimes over a single member. Moreover, ConvSG shows superior or equal skills compared to Lagrangian Extrapolation models for all rain rates, achieving a 49% average improvement in predictive skill over extrapolation on the higher precipitation regimes.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第25122号 / 理博第5029号 / 新制||理||1717(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 西村 卓也, 教授 宮﨑 真一, 教授 大見 士朗 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM