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Agent-based modelling and simulation of pedestrian evacuation behaviour during large outdoor events: fireworks to display at Tsim Sha Tsui of Hong Kong as a case study. / CUHK electronic theses & dissertations collectionJanuary 2011 (has links)
By conducting a field survey to collect and investigate the attributes and behaviour patterns of participants in the case event, the proposed model and simulation system were implemented. Three scenarios of different populations of involved agents were simulated on the finished system according to the sample data. Simulation results were analyzed and compared to the observed data. The simulation system was found to be capable of reproducing compatible dynamics of pedestrian flows. / Finally the conclusions of this thesis study were presented. / In order to implement the model, the layered behavioural simulation model was proposed for putting the decisions made from the behaviour model into action. By identifying the three layers sustaining the routing procedure at their respective levels, the evacuation route was finally converted to selecting stepping cells from adjacent neighbours. In this way a quick way-finding process can be achieved toward the ultimate destination, so that the global objectives are coordinated with local action decisions on the cell scale. With this simulation model, the framework of the geo-referenced agent-based system was proposed with technical details presented. This system was built directly on a GIS base and thus was able to conduct simulation in a real space environment and perform advanced GIS analysis inside the simulation. / In reviewing the existing evacuation models and simulation systems, it was found that although there have been remarkable advances in reproducing and analyzing many phenomena and the dynamics of pedestrian flow in evacuations, social psychological factors were not well considered. Theories and research in the social psychological field have indicated that these factors are essential in evacuation behaviour. Therefore the author examined the socio-economic factors relating to psychological responses through a literature review and explored the potential for integrating such factors into the agent based modelling approach. / Inspired by such concerns, the author proposed the individual cognitive behaviour model consisting of the Personalized Spatial Cognitive Road Network, which represents the diverse individual spatial knowledge of recognizable roads, and the Multiple Routing Strategies which incorporated individual preferences in selecting routing strategy. The proposed model follows the principle that pedestrians are considered to be composed of heterogeneous individuals, thus each pedestrian could have his or her own knowledge base and rules of behaviour. Two steps in constructing each component were presented respectively, with an integrated framework presented in the context of agent based modelling. / Public safety has become more and more important nowadays as tragic incidents, such as the 9/11 World Trading Centre attack, have caused a large number of causalities. It is critical to improve the capability of the security department for safely managing the crowd in response to an emergency. Conventional techniques investigating evacuation dynamics, such as the sand-box game utilized by Hong Kong police department preparing evacuation plans for the case event, are generally inadequate for providing sufficient support to crowd management. Enhancing the management practice by computer based simulation techniques has been attracting an increasing amount of research interests recently, as it can offer timely decision making assistance in changing situations compared to the conventional approaches. / Wu, Lei. / Advisers: Hui Lin; Bo Huang; Yee Leung. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 73-06, Section: A, page: . / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 249-273). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract also in Chinese.
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Estratégias de computação seqüenciais e paralelas sobre espaços coerentes / Sequential and parallel computational strategies of coherence spacesSchneider Sellanes, Ruben Gerardo January 1996 (has links)
As estruturas de dados concretas (cds) são quaternas (C, V, E, l-) que contêm um conjunto C de células, um conjunto V de valores, um conjunto E de eventos e uma relação de habilitação l-. O conjunto de estados de uma cds é um domínio concreto que pode ser considerada a parte "abstrata" das cds. Da mesma maneira tem-se que os domínios de eventos (que são generalizações dos domínios concretos) são a parte abstrata das estruturas de eventos. Mostra-se a relação dos domínios concretos e domínios de eventos com os espaços coerentes, assim como também das teias de espaços coerentes com as cds e estruturas de eventos. Intuitivamente, uma cds é uma teia de um espaço coerente se toda célula c de C não é habilitada por nenhum evento (ou equivalentemente, é habilitada pelo conjunto vazio), isto é, V C E C, 0 F c. Outra forma de expressar isto é dizer que uma cds e uma teia de um espaço coerente se o conjunto de estados da cds é um espaço coerente. Definem-se os algoritmos lineares como sendo estados de uma cds no estilo dos algoritmos seqüenciais do Curien ([CUR 86]). Em particular as cds consideradas são teias de espaços coerentes. Mostra-se como obter a cds !A—>B, a partir de uma função estável f. A —> B. O algoritmo linear desta cds possui todas as estratégias de computação (seqüenciais e paralelas) que computam a função subjacente f, o que implica que os algoritmos lineares podem ser considerados meta-algoritmos. Mostra-se que para toda estratégia de computação seqüencial de um algoritmo linear, existe um algoritmo seqüencial de Curien que computa a mesma função, e vice-versa. A definição de estratégia de computação é dada de maneira tal que permite se dar semântica a segmentos de programas. Define-se uma operação de composição de estratégias, de forma tal que se pode obter uma estratégia de computação de um programa, a partir da composição das estratégias dos segmentos. / The concrete data structures, or cds, (C, V, E, l-) consists of a set C of cells, a set V of values. a set E of events and an enabling relation l-. The set of states of a cds is a concrete domain, that can be considered the "abstract" counterpart of the cds. In the same way we have that the events domains (that are more general that the concretes domains) are the abstract counterpart of the events structures. We show the relation between the concretes domains and events domains with the coherence spaces, as just as the relation between the cds and events structures with webs of coherence spaces. Intuitivelly, a cds is a web of a coherence space if any cell c is not enabled for any event, i.e. Vce C, 0 F c. We can say that a cds is a web of a coherence space if the set of states of the cds is a coherence space. We define the linear algorithms as states of a cds following the Curien's sequential algorithms ([CUR 86]). In particular the cds considered are webs of coherence spaces. We show how to obtain a cds !A—>B from a stable function f. A —> B. The linear algorithm of this cds contain all the computational strategies (sequentials and parallels) that compute the subjacent function f; this implies that the linear algorithms can be considered a kind of meta-algorithms. We show that for all sequential computational strategy of a linear al gorithm exists a Curien's sequential algorithm that compute the same function and conversely. We define the computational strategies in such a way that we can give semantic of segments of programs. We define a composition operation for strategies. This operation has the advantage that we can obtain the computational strategy of a program as the composition of the segments of it.
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Cognitive coping and depression in elderly long-term care residentsMcCormick, Christine Viola 01 January 2007 (has links)
The purpose of this research was to examine specific coping methods used by the elderly as they adjust to the environment of a long-term care facility, and to examine the correlations between these coping methods and levels of depressive symptomatology.
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A Duration Analysis of Food Safety Recall Events in the United States: January, 2000 to October, 2009Joy, Nathaniel Allen 2010 December 1900 (has links)
The safety of the food supply in the United States has become an issue of prominence in the minds of ordinary Americans. Several government agencies, including the United States Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, are charged with the responsibility of preserving the safety of the food supply. Food is withdrawn from the market in a product recall when tainted or mislabeled and has the potential to harm the consumer in some manner. This research examines recall events issued by firms over the period of January, 2000 through October, 2009 in the United States. Utilizing economic and management theory to establish predictions, this study employs the Cox proportional hazard regression model to analyze the effects of firm size and branding on the risk of recall recurrence. The size of the firm was measured in both billions of dollars of sales and in thousands of employees. Branding by the firm was measured as a binary variable that expressed if a firm had a brand and as a count of the number of brands within a firm. This study also provides a descriptive statistical analysis and several findings based on the recall data specifically relating to annual occurrences, geographical locations of the firms involved, types of products recalled, and reasons for recall. We hypothesized that the increasing firm size would be associated with increased relative risk of a recall event while branding and an increasing portfolio of brands would be associated with decreased relative risk of a recall event. However, it was found that increased firm size and branding by the firm are associated with an increased risk of recall occurrence. The results of this research can have implications on food safety standards in both the public and private sectors.
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Estratégias de computação seqüenciais e paralelas sobre espaços coerentes / Sequential and parallel computational strategies of coherence spacesSchneider Sellanes, Ruben Gerardo January 1996 (has links)
As estruturas de dados concretas (cds) são quaternas (C, V, E, l-) que contêm um conjunto C de células, um conjunto V de valores, um conjunto E de eventos e uma relação de habilitação l-. O conjunto de estados de uma cds é um domínio concreto que pode ser considerada a parte "abstrata" das cds. Da mesma maneira tem-se que os domínios de eventos (que são generalizações dos domínios concretos) são a parte abstrata das estruturas de eventos. Mostra-se a relação dos domínios concretos e domínios de eventos com os espaços coerentes, assim como também das teias de espaços coerentes com as cds e estruturas de eventos. Intuitivamente, uma cds é uma teia de um espaço coerente se toda célula c de C não é habilitada por nenhum evento (ou equivalentemente, é habilitada pelo conjunto vazio), isto é, V C E C, 0 F c. Outra forma de expressar isto é dizer que uma cds e uma teia de um espaço coerente se o conjunto de estados da cds é um espaço coerente. Definem-se os algoritmos lineares como sendo estados de uma cds no estilo dos algoritmos seqüenciais do Curien ([CUR 86]). Em particular as cds consideradas são teias de espaços coerentes. Mostra-se como obter a cds !A—>B, a partir de uma função estável f. A —> B. O algoritmo linear desta cds possui todas as estratégias de computação (seqüenciais e paralelas) que computam a função subjacente f, o que implica que os algoritmos lineares podem ser considerados meta-algoritmos. Mostra-se que para toda estratégia de computação seqüencial de um algoritmo linear, existe um algoritmo seqüencial de Curien que computa a mesma função, e vice-versa. A definição de estratégia de computação é dada de maneira tal que permite se dar semântica a segmentos de programas. Define-se uma operação de composição de estratégias, de forma tal que se pode obter uma estratégia de computação de um programa, a partir da composição das estratégias dos segmentos. / The concrete data structures, or cds, (C, V, E, l-) consists of a set C of cells, a set V of values. a set E of events and an enabling relation l-. The set of states of a cds is a concrete domain, that can be considered the "abstract" counterpart of the cds. In the same way we have that the events domains (that are more general that the concretes domains) are the abstract counterpart of the events structures. We show the relation between the concretes domains and events domains with the coherence spaces, as just as the relation between the cds and events structures with webs of coherence spaces. Intuitivelly, a cds is a web of a coherence space if any cell c is not enabled for any event, i.e. Vce C, 0 F c. We can say that a cds is a web of a coherence space if the set of states of the cds is a coherence space. We define the linear algorithms as states of a cds following the Curien's sequential algorithms ([CUR 86]). In particular the cds considered are webs of coherence spaces. We show how to obtain a cds !A—>B from a stable function f. A —> B. The linear algorithm of this cds contain all the computational strategies (sequentials and parallels) that compute the subjacent function f; this implies that the linear algorithms can be considered a kind of meta-algorithms. We show that for all sequential computational strategy of a linear al gorithm exists a Curien's sequential algorithm that compute the same function and conversely. We define the computational strategies in such a way that we can give semantic of segments of programs. We define a composition operation for strategies. This operation has the advantage that we can obtain the computational strategy of a program as the composition of the segments of it.
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Numerical simulation and rare events algorithms for the study of extreme fluctuations of the drag force acting on an obstacle immersed in a turbulent flow / Simulation numérique et algorithmes d'échantillonnage d'évènements rares pour l'étude des fluctuations extrêmes de la force de traînée sur un obstacle immergé dans un écoulement turbulentLestang, Thibault 25 September 2018 (has links)
Cette thèse porte sur l'étude numérique des fluctuations extrêmes de la force de traînée exercée par un écoulement turbulent sur un corps immergé.Ce type d'évènement, très rare, est difficile à caractériser par le biais d'un échantillonnage direct, puisqu'il est alors nécessaire de simuler l'écoulement sur des durées extrêmement longues. Cette thèse propose une approche différente, basée sur l'application d'algorithmes d'échantillonnage d'événements rares. L'objectif de ces algorithmes, issus de la physique statistique, est de modifier la statistique d'échantillonnage des trajectoires d'un système dynamique, de manière à favoriser l'occurrence d'événements rares. Si ces techniques ont été appliquées avec succès dans le cas de dynamiques relativement simples, l'intérêt de ces algorithmes n'est à ce jour pas clair pour des dynamiques déterministes extrêmement complexes, comme c'est le cas pour les écoulement turbulents.Cette thèse présente tout d'abord une étude de la dynamique et de la statistique associée aux fluctuations extrêmes de la force de traînée sur un obstacle carré fixe immergé dans un écoulement turbulent à deux dimensions. Ce cadre simplifié permet de simuler la dynamique sur des durées très longues, permettant d'échantillonner un grand nombre de fluctuations dont l'amplitude est assez élevée pour être qualifiée d'extrême.Dans un second temps, l'application de deux algorithmes d’échantillonnage est présentée et discutée.Dans un premier cas, il est illustré qu'une réduction significative du temps de calcul d'extrêmes peut être obtenue. En outre, des difficultés liées à la dynamique de l'écoulement sont mises en lumière, ouvrant la voie au développement de nouveaux algorithmes spécifiques aux écoulements turbulents. / This thesis discusses the numerical simulation of extreme fluctuations of the drag force acting on an object immersed in a turbulent medium.Because such fluctuations are rare events, they are particularly difficult to investigate by means of direct sampling. Indeed, such approach requires to simulate the dynamics over extremely long durations.In this work an alternative route is introduced, based on rare events algorithms.The underlying idea of such algorithms is to modify the sampling statistics so as to favour rare trajectories of the dynamical system of interest.These techniques recently led to impressive results for relatively simple dynamics. However, it is not clear yet if such algorithms are useful for complex deterministic dynamics, such as turbulent flows.This thesis focuses on the study of both the dynamics and statistics of extreme fluctuations of the drag experienced by a square cylinder mounted in a two-dimensional channel flow.This simple framework allows for very long simulations of the dynamics, thus leading to the sampling of a large number of events with an amplitude large enough so as they can be considered extreme.Subsequently, the application of two different rare events algorithms is presented and discussed.In the first case, a drastic reduction of the computational cost required to sample configurations resulting in extreme fluctuations is achieved.Furthermore, several difficulties related to the flow dynamics are highlighted, paving the way to novel approaches specifically designed to turbulent flows.
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Estratégias de computação seqüenciais e paralelas sobre espaços coerentes / Sequential and parallel computational strategies of coherence spacesSchneider Sellanes, Ruben Gerardo January 1996 (has links)
As estruturas de dados concretas (cds) são quaternas (C, V, E, l-) que contêm um conjunto C de células, um conjunto V de valores, um conjunto E de eventos e uma relação de habilitação l-. O conjunto de estados de uma cds é um domínio concreto que pode ser considerada a parte "abstrata" das cds. Da mesma maneira tem-se que os domínios de eventos (que são generalizações dos domínios concretos) são a parte abstrata das estruturas de eventos. Mostra-se a relação dos domínios concretos e domínios de eventos com os espaços coerentes, assim como também das teias de espaços coerentes com as cds e estruturas de eventos. Intuitivamente, uma cds é uma teia de um espaço coerente se toda célula c de C não é habilitada por nenhum evento (ou equivalentemente, é habilitada pelo conjunto vazio), isto é, V C E C, 0 F c. Outra forma de expressar isto é dizer que uma cds e uma teia de um espaço coerente se o conjunto de estados da cds é um espaço coerente. Definem-se os algoritmos lineares como sendo estados de uma cds no estilo dos algoritmos seqüenciais do Curien ([CUR 86]). Em particular as cds consideradas são teias de espaços coerentes. Mostra-se como obter a cds !A—>B, a partir de uma função estável f. A —> B. O algoritmo linear desta cds possui todas as estratégias de computação (seqüenciais e paralelas) que computam a função subjacente f, o que implica que os algoritmos lineares podem ser considerados meta-algoritmos. Mostra-se que para toda estratégia de computação seqüencial de um algoritmo linear, existe um algoritmo seqüencial de Curien que computa a mesma função, e vice-versa. A definição de estratégia de computação é dada de maneira tal que permite se dar semântica a segmentos de programas. Define-se uma operação de composição de estratégias, de forma tal que se pode obter uma estratégia de computação de um programa, a partir da composição das estratégias dos segmentos. / The concrete data structures, or cds, (C, V, E, l-) consists of a set C of cells, a set V of values. a set E of events and an enabling relation l-. The set of states of a cds is a concrete domain, that can be considered the "abstract" counterpart of the cds. In the same way we have that the events domains (that are more general that the concretes domains) are the abstract counterpart of the events structures. We show the relation between the concretes domains and events domains with the coherence spaces, as just as the relation between the cds and events structures with webs of coherence spaces. Intuitivelly, a cds is a web of a coherence space if any cell c is not enabled for any event, i.e. Vce C, 0 F c. We can say that a cds is a web of a coherence space if the set of states of the cds is a coherence space. We define the linear algorithms as states of a cds following the Curien's sequential algorithms ([CUR 86]). In particular the cds considered are webs of coherence spaces. We show how to obtain a cds !A—>B from a stable function f. A —> B. The linear algorithm of this cds contain all the computational strategies (sequentials and parallels) that compute the subjacent function f; this implies that the linear algorithms can be considered a kind of meta-algorithms. We show that for all sequential computational strategy of a linear al gorithm exists a Curien's sequential algorithm that compute the same function and conversely. We define the computational strategies in such a way that we can give semantic of segments of programs. We define a composition operation for strategies. This operation has the advantage that we can obtain the computational strategy of a program as the composition of the segments of it.
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A pre-evaluation of residents’ perceptions of the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ : a case study of an informal settlement in Cape Town, Western CapeJurd, Megan Chantel January 2015 (has links)
Thesis (MTech (Tourism and Events Management))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2015. / South Africa won the right to host the first Fédération Internationale de Football (FIFA) WorldCup™ on the African continent in 2010. The 2010 FIFA World Cup™ has been heralded as a ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity with significant legacy benefits for South Africans. Many sport mega-event organisations tend to disregard residents’ perceptions of the events’ social, economic and environmental impacts. There is a lack of research investigating responses of residents where the event takes place, specifically studies on informal residents’ perceptions of sport mega-events. The main focus of this study is to explore the level of awareness, perceptions and attitudes of residents living in an informal settlement area in close proximity to Cape Town Stadium with respect to the impacts of the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ in Cape Town. A systematic, stratified random sampling technique was used to survey 370 household residents of Joe Slovo, which is the nearest informal settlement to Cape Town Stadium, three months before the hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup™. The findings revealed that the majority of the residents were aware of the 2010 FIFA World Cup™, and that communication from stakeholders could have improved. The residents also expressed their support for the event by indicating various levels of participation. They also generally had positive perceptions
towards the 2010 FIFA World Cup™, but highlighted that big businesses and the wealthy and rich would mainly benefit from the event. Social concerns were related to traffic congestion, excessive noise levels, and crime. An investigation of this sort ‘paves the way’ for on-going research into residents’ perceptions of the 2010 FIFA World Cup™. It is recommended that the focus should be on longitudinal impacts rather than short-term impacts and that a legacy should be left behind
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AVALIAÇÃO DO POTENCIAL PROGNÓSTICO DA ANEMIA E DO RDW NA ESTRATIFICAÇÃO DE RISCO EM PACIENTES COM SÍNDROME CORONARIANA AGUDA / ASSESSMENT OF PROGNOSTIC POTENTIAL OF ANEMIA AND RDW IN RISK STRATIFICATION OF PATIENTS WITH ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROMESangoi, Manuela Borges 03 April 2013 (has links)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Ischemic heart diseases stands out among the diseases that affect the cardiovascular system due to its high prevalence and its impact on mortality in the general population. Ischemic heart disease is the leading worldwide cause of mortality. Fenomenum that also happens in the Americas and Brazil. The term acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is used to describe a heterogeneous spectrum of clinical conditions associated with acute myocardial ischemia, including unstable angina and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The plurality in its clinical presentation represents a diagnostic challenge for clinicians. Moreover, appropriate risk stratification is mandadatory in all patients with ACS. Some clinical tools such as physical examination, electrocardiographic observations and risk scores are extremely usefull to identify patients at high risk of unfavorable clinical outcomes. Scores of risk stratification, among those the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), are widely used in the prognostic evaluation of patients with ACS.Some plasma biomarkers have also been used to improove risk stratification. The GRACE score is a fundamental part of the assessment of patients with ACS and may even prevent or minimize adverse consequences in these individuals. Nevertheless, the search for new potential prognostic parameters that could add information to these establised scores has been the subject of intense research. In this context, stands out the use of routine hematological tests , since the complete blood count is readily available for clinical use and has a good cost-benefit relationship. Recent studies have investigated the potential role of some of red cell indices, especially anemia and red cell distribution width (RDW), in the prognostic evaluation of patients with several cardiovascular conditions. The presence of anemia and elevated RDW in patients with ACS have been independently associated with increased risk of adverse events such as heart failure, recurrent ischemic events, and death. We have hipotezazed that the addition of the hemalological indices to the GRACE score would improve its ability to stratify patients.The main objective of this study was to investigate whether inclusion of anemia or RDW, assessed at admission, in the GRACE score model to predic in-hospital mortality, could improve the discrimination and calibration of these model, as well as risk stratification in patients with ACS. For this, a cohort study, including 109 patients with AMI was carried out. Cox regression models including the variables of the GRACE score and RDW or anemia were constructed. Measures of calibration and discrimination, and reclassification of patients were also calculated for the new models. The new models, either with the inclusion of anemia, or the addition of RDW showed adequate calibration and discrimination. Furthermore, the addition of these
parameters to the original model allowed adequate reclassification of patients in different categories of risk. The red cell indices, anemia and RDW showed potential prognostic for use in risk assessment of patients with ACS, allowing the improvement of risk stratification performed through the GRACE score. / A cardiopatia isquêmica destaca-se entre as doenças que acometem o sistema cardiovascular, devido à sua alta prevalência e a seu impacto sobre a mortalidade na população em geral. As doenças isquêmicas do coração são a principal causa de mortalidade mundial, nas Américas e no Brasil. O termo SCA é usado para descrever um espectro heterogêneo de condições clínicas associadas com isquemia aguda do miocárdio, incluindo angina instável e infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM). A diversidade na apresentação clínica de pacientes com esta patologia representa um desafio para os clínicos em termos de diagnóstico e de estratificação de risco apropriada. Algumas ferramentas clínicas como exame físico, observações eletrocardiográficas e escores de risco, são de extrema relevância na identificação de pacientes com alto risco de desfechos clínicos desfavoráveis. Além disso, alguns biomarcadores plasmáticos também vêm sendo utilizados com este propósito e a busca por novos parâmetros com potencial prognóstico tem sido alvo de intensas pesquisas. Neste contexto, destaca-se a utilização dos testes hematológicos de rotina na estratificação de risco, uma vez que o hemograma é um exame amplamente disponível para uso clínico e possui uma boa relação custo benefício. Estudos recentes tem investigado o potencial papel de alguns dos índices hematimétricos, especialmente anemia e amplitude de distribuição dos eritrócitos (RDW), na avaliação prognóstica de pacientes apresentando diversas condições cardiovasculares. A presença de anemia, bem como valores elevados de RDW em pacientes com SCA tem sido independentemente associados com maior risco de eventos adversos como mortalidade, desenvolvimento de insuficiência cardíaca e ocorrência de eventos isquêmicos recorrentes. Os escores de estratificação de risco, principalmente o Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), são amplamente utilizados na avaliação prognóstica de pacientes com SCA. No entanto, os modelos disponíveis atualmente não incluem os índices hematimétricos na determinação do risco do paciente. Considerando que a estratificação de risco é parte fundamental da avaliação de pacientes com SCA, podendo evitar ou mesmo minimizar consequências adversas nestes indivíduos, o principal objetivo deste estudo foi investigar se a inclusão de anemia ou RDW, avaliados na admissão hospitalar, ao escore GRACE para a predição de mortalidade durante o período de internação hospitalar, podem melhorar a calibração e discriminação do modelo, bem como a estratificação de risco em pacientes com SCA. Para isso, um estudo de coorte, incluindo 109 pacientes com IAM, foi realizado. Modelos de regressão de Cox incluindo as variáveis do escore GRACE e o RDW ou a anemia foram construídos. Medidas de calibração e discriminação também foram calculadas, bem como o percentual de reclassificação dos pacientes para os novos modelos propostos. Os novos modelos, tanto com a inclusão de anemia, quanto com a adição de RDW, apresentaram adequada calibração e discriminação. Além disso, a adição destes parâmetros ao modelo original permitiu uma adequada reclassificação dos pacientes em diferentes categorias de risco. Os índices hematimétricos, anemia e RDW, demonstraram potencial prognóstico para utilização na avaliação de risco de pacientes com SCA, permitindo o aprimoramento da estratificação de risco realizada através do escore GRACE.
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Gli eventi off diffusi sul territorio delle città metropolitane europee : tra strategie di branding urbano e identità locale / Les événements off diffus sur le territoire des villes métropoles européennes : entre marketing urbain et identité locale / Fringe events diffused on the territory of the metropolitan cities in Europe : between urban branding strategies and local identityRieffly, Barbara 16 December 2015 (has links)
L'objectif de la thèse est d'analyser le phénomène des événements off, événements urbains alternatifs et indépendants, qui naissent «du bas» à partir des initiatives qui rejettent le système institutionnalisé. Dans la première partie, nous proposons une reconstruction du débat sur les événements urbains contemporains : les principales classifications sont identifiées ; les trois débats dominants sont présentés et le concept de la ville événement est remis en cause. Dans la deuxième partie, nous analysons trois études de cas différents : Marseille 2013 Off (Marseille), Fuorisalone (Milan) et Paratissima (Turin). Au début, ils sont décrits dans leurs éléments constitutifs pour voir le degré «off» de ces événements (naissance et histoire de l'événement ; budget ; partenaires et projet de gouvernance ; acteurs locaux impliqués et relation avec l'événement officiel) ; puis ils sont analysés dans le contexte urbain dans lequel ils sont insérer, pour voir dans quelle mesure les événements off parviennent à être des événements urbains qui font l'identité locale. Les Conclusions, à partir d'une vue d'ensemble des trois études de cas, nous permettent d'analyser les trois événements off dans une perspective comparative qui décrit les caractéristiques communes et les différences qui existent entre eux. Cette analyse nous permet de saisir les configurations des événements off en fonction de leur caractère alternatif et de leurs effets sur les entreprises de « branding » urbain. Enfin, on verra comment, parmi les spécificités de chaque étude de cas examinés, ces mécanismes sont mis en cause par la production d’une image alternative à celle représentée par l'événement officiel. / The aim of the thesis was to analyze the phenomenon of so-called fringe events, alternative and independent urban events, which arise from bottom-up initiatives that reject the institutionalized system. The first part is dedicated to a reconstruction of the debate on contemporary urban events by identifying the main classifications, the three dominant debates and by discussing the concept of an event city. The second part analyses three different case studies: Marseille 2013 Off (city of Marseille, France), Fuorisalone (city of Milan, Italy) and Paratissima (city of Turin, Italy). At first they are described in their constituent elements (the birth and the history of the event, the budget, the partners and the project governance, the local stakeholders and the relationship with the official event) to see how much those events can be considered "fringe". While later they are analyzed within their urban context to see how far fringe events manage to be urban events that make local identity. The conclusions of the work offer an overview of the three case studies that allow us to analyze the three fringe events in a comparative perspective that describes the common features and differences between them. This analysis allows us to grasp the fringe events configurations based on their alternative nature and their effects on attempts of urban branding. Finally, we will see how from the specifics of each case study examined, these mechanisms are involved in the production of an alternative image to that produced by the official event.
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