The rapid development and the transformation of the market relations provoke the volatility of the external environment of the enterprise. This determines the need to forecast financial and economic indicators, one of which is revenue. The purpose of the master's thesis is the development of revenue forecasting methodology, which will be useful in business analytics. The theoretical and applied issues of revenue forecasting are presented in the thesis. The following sources of information were used in the study: legal acts, papers in the Russian Science Citation Index (Elibrary resource), the educational literature, and corporate statistics on the subject of the research. The methodology of revenue forecasting, which includes methodological principles and stages of forecasting revenues, was proposed. The way of predicted estimates verification on the basis of ex-post forecast is the peculiarity of proposed methodology. The methodology was tested at the enterprise and the projected revenue estimates were obtained. The test confirmed the correctness of the proposed methodology. In conclusion directions for improving this methodology were presented. / Стремительное развитие и постоянная трансформация рыночных отношений, провоцирующие волатильность вешней среды предприятия, определяют необходимость прогнозирования ключевых финансово-экономических показателей, одним из которых является выручка. Целью магистерской диссертации является разработка методики прогнозирования выручки предприятия, которая будет являться вспомогательным инструментарием в прикладной бизнес-аналитике. В работе рассматриваются теоретические и прикладные вопросы прогнозирования выручки. В качестве источников информации использовались нормативно-правовые акты, база публикаций Российского индекса научного цитирования, представленная на ресурсе Elibrary, учебно-методическая литература, данные корпоративной статистики. В ходе написания магистерской диссертации была разработана методика прогнозирования выручки предприятия, включающая в себя методические принципы и этапы прогнозирования выручки. Особенностью методики является верификация прогнозных оценок методом ex-post. В результате апробации разработанной методики были получены прогнозные оценки выручки конкретного предприятия, которые подтвердили корректность предложенных подходов прогнозированию. В заключение были определены направления совершенствования разработанной методики.

A quantidade de investimento público em projetos de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação tem aumentado nos últimos anos no contexto das nações em desenvolvimento. Como resultado, é necessário verificar quais os benefícios que a sociedade está ganhando em troca dos recursos públicos que são investidos neste campo. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa que teve por objetivo propor um método para a identificação de resultados e impactos indiretos de projetos tecnológicos no contexto brasileiro através da abordagem da Design Science Research. A primeira etapa do estudo contemplou uma revisão sistemática de literatura com o objetivo de identificar quais são os métodos existentes de avaliação ex-post de projetos que buscam identificar resultados e impactos indiretos. A partir das lacunas e oportunidades de pesquisa encontrada na literatura, a segunda etapa propõe um novo método para identificação dos resultados e impactos indiretos gerados por projetos tecnológicos. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, o método proposto é aplicado em dois projetos distintos para avaliação. Como resultados, destacam-se a identificação das lacunas de abordagem dos métodos existentes e o método proposto como forma de suprir algumas destas lacunas. Os resultados da aplicação do método proposto indicaram que o mesmo supre as lacunas de abordagem existentes nas metodologias ex-post identificadas. Um dos diferenciais do método proposto em relação aos existentes é contemplar uma compreensiva relação de tipos de impactos indiretos de projetos. A principal contribuição acadêmica e empírica do método é que pode ser aplicado em projetos tecnológicos de diversas áreas além de ser de simples aplicação. / The amount of public investment in Science, Technology and Innovation projects has increased in recent years in the context of developing nations. As a result, it is necessary to check what benefits society is gaining in exchange for the public resources that are invested in this area. This thesis presents the results of a research wich objective is propose a method for the identification of indirect results and impacts of technological projects in the Brazilian context through the approach of Design Science Research. The first stage of the study contemplated a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the existing methods of ex-post evaluation of projects to identify indirect results and impacts. From the gaps and research opportunities found in the literature, the second step proposes a new method to identify the indirect results and impacts generated by technological projects. Still in this second stage, the proposed method is applied in two distinct projects for evaluation. The results of the application of the proposed method indicated that it fills the gaps of approach existing in the ex-post methodologies identified. One of the differentials of the proposed method in relation to the existing ones is to contemplate a comprehensive relation of types of indirect impacts of projects. The main academic and empirical contribution of the method is that it can be applied in technological projects in several areas besides being simple to apply.

Recent World Animal Health Organization (OIE) reports on Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks in Asia, Europe and Canada suggest that there is a nonzero probability that an outbreak may occur anywhere in the world, including the US. To help evaluate possible policy in the face of such an event, this dissertation does an economic evaluation of the implications of using two mitigation strategies: one corresponding to the currently response strategy; and the other an OIE recommended one utilizing vaccination. To do this, the dissertation develops and uses an integrated economic-epidemic model. In this effort, I first estimate the cost of an AI outbreak under a deterministic disease spread assumption where a new vaccination strategy and the current strategy are compared. Subsequently, I introduce risk in the model and construct 95 percent confidence intervals for the outbreak costs, and I rank the outcomes of the alternative strategies using stochastic dominance criteria. In addition, during both phases, I develop and estimate the breakeven probability for an event where ex-ante fixed costs of vaccine stockpiling are justified by the reduction in disease event damages. Results under deterministic disease spread assumption suggest that the vaccination strategy lowers the cost of outbreaks as opposed to the current strategy. This happens because vaccination reduces the number of culled and quarantined flocks. The study is conducted in three locations, yielding the finding that the costs of an outbreak vary depending on the densities of poultry flocks. I also find that when consumer demand shifts due to the outbreak, the costs are much larger. Finally, I find that ex-ante vaccine stockpiling is justified for all the sub-regions if the probability of outbreak exceeds 0.07. The stochastic disease spread assumption results also show that the vaccination strategy dominates in first degree stochastic dominance sense. Consistent with stochastic dominance results, the 95 percent confidence intervals have narrower ranges under the vaccination strategy than without it. Finally, the distribution of the breakeven probability for vaccine stocking has a mode of 0.07 and that the probability is accurate with 82 percent likelihood. However, the threshold varies with the disease transmission parameters and could reach up to 0.32.

The author used Put-Call-Futures Parity, Arbitrage-Free, Ex-ante Tests and Ex-post Tests to examine the arbitrage opportunity and market efficiency of the TAIEX index futures (TX) and the TAIEX index options (TXO) in this paper, during the period of December 24th, 2001 to December 31st, 2002. The author first, used daily closing prices to test for the existence of possible arbitrage opportunities. Second, she used ex-ante tests and arbitrage strategy to examine the arbitrage opportunity whether it exists or not with a time lag. Furthermore, The author classified the samples which exist ex-post arbitrage profit into five sub-samples according to call options positions belonging to near-the-money and far-from-the-money, futures positions belonging to positive basis and negative basis, markets belonging to bull markets and bear markets, and different margin requirement. She used ex-post and ex-ante tests to compare the results of over-all markets samples with the sub-samples, then, she also examined the results of included transaction cost or not. The major findings are as follows: 1. Whether taking into transaction cost or not, the TAIEX index futures and the TAIEX index options markets have arbitrage opportunity¡Aand so the markets unefficient. 2. The results of ex-ante tests and the average of arbitrage profit are positive for time to increase. 3. The long arbitrage strategy generates a higher arbitrage profit than the short arbitrage strategy. 4. The investors could proceed arbitrage profit during markets belonging to positive basis and bear market and low margin requirement.

Thesis (D. Jur.)--York University, 2001. / Typescript. "Graduate Programme in Law, Osgoode Hall Law School, York University." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 351-371). Also available on the Internet. MODE OF ACCESS via web browser by entering the following URL: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/yorku/fullcit?pNQ67941.

Several experimental studies show that ex post communication mitigates opportunistic behavior in social dilemmas. The source of this effect, especially in a repeated interaction, is nonetheless still obscure. This study provides a novel empirical testbed for two channels by which ex post communication may affect behavior in a repeated public goods game. One is related to strategic signaling. The other involves emotions induced by others' expressed disapproval. The presence of ex post communication strongly fosters pro-social behavior. The data do not support the signaling hypothesis, favouring the emotion-based explanation instead. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

No description available.

El presente plan de gestión de análisis, evaluación y mejora en la aplicación de las evaluaciones ex post de los proyectos o programas de inversión pública de la unidad ejecutora Programa Subsectorial de Irrigaciones- PSI del Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego para el periodo 2019- 2021, está basado en información del Programa Subsectorial de Irrigaciones, el cual pretende analizar como el PSI viene realizando o no las evaluaciones ex post de los proyectos o programas de inversión pública, en post de conocer los resultados obtenidos por los mismos. Respecto a la evaluación ex post la cual se enmarca dentro la fase de Funcionamiento que es parte del ciclo de inversión, existe una inquietud de cómo el PSI ha realizado esta evaluación a los proyectos o programas de inversión que ha ejecutado a lo largo de su creación como entidad, pero no sólo de ello, sino también en qué estado se encuentra el Perú en comparación de otros países de América Latina y el Caribe respecto a las evaluaciones ex post, considerando que el derogado SNIP y ahora el Sistema Nacional de Programación Multianual y Gestión de Inversiones - Invierte Pe como sistema administrativo de inversiones en el Perú ya tiene más de 15 años. El objetivo de esta investigación, es proponer acciones específicas de cómo mejorar e implementar el desarrollo de las evaluaciones ex post de los proyectos o programas de inversión pública en el PSI, que le permitan a la entidad obtener información oportuna y relevante para la toma de decisiones futuras a partir de los resultados obtenidos y de lecciones aprendidas respecto a la intervención realizada a través de los proyectos o programas ejecutados, ya sean estas positivas o negativas, proponiendo como una de las acciones específicas la implementación y aplicación de las evaluaciones ex post.

BURDÍKOVÁ, H. Ex-post evaluation of non-investment projects in the field of tourism promotion financed from ROP South-East. Thesis. Brno, 2015. This thesis is concerned with evaluation in conditions of EU Cohesion Policy. The subjects of evaluation are non-investment projects financed from the Regional Operational Programme South-East, whose implementation falls within the programming period 2007-2013. It was selected a sample of five projects, which are focused on the development and promotion of tourism in the South Moravian Region and the Region Vysočina. The theoretical part is devoted to literature review, which focuses firstly on the general definition of regional policy, its specific application in the European Union and the Czech Republic. After putting in this necessary context, it is proceeded to explain the concept of evaluation, especially the difference between program and project evaluation and detailed description of subsequent (ex-post) evaluation. The conclusion of this part is determination of procedure of ex-post evaluation, which the author observes in practical part of the thesis. This part is devoted to a brief description of selected projects and the establishment of evaluation questions, together with its own indicator system. Quantitative analysis of the data is done in consideration of the goals of the thesis, which is assessment of cost-effectiveness of projects through cost-utility method CEA. Its conclusions are complemented and explained using information from qualitative analysis - individual interviews with representatives of the grant recipients. The results of this analysis are used to answer a set of evaluation questions and also to perform comparisons using the benchmarking method. In the last part of the thesis are formulated suggestions and recommendations for improving cost-effectiveness and quality of the examined projects for the grant recipients and the managing authority of the operational program.

A quantidade de investimento público em projetos de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação tem aumentado nos últimos anos no contexto das nações em desenvolvimento. Como resultado, é necessário verificar quais os benefícios que a sociedade está ganhando em troca dos recursos públicos que são investidos neste campo. Esta dissertação apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa que teve por objetivo propor um método para a identificação de resultados e impactos indiretos de projetos tecnológicos no contexto brasileiro através da abordagem da Design Science Research. A primeira etapa do estudo contemplou uma revisão sistemática de literatura com o objetivo de identificar quais são os métodos existentes de avaliação ex-post de projetos que buscam identificar resultados e impactos indiretos. A partir das lacunas e oportunidades de pesquisa encontrada na literatura, a segunda etapa propõe um novo método para identificação dos resultados e impactos indiretos gerados por projetos tecnológicos. Ainda nesta segunda etapa, o método proposto é aplicado em dois projetos distintos para avaliação. Como resultados, destacam-se a identificação das lacunas de abordagem dos métodos existentes e o método proposto como forma de suprir algumas destas lacunas. Os resultados da aplicação do método proposto indicaram que o mesmo supre as lacunas de abordagem existentes nas metodologias ex-post identificadas. Um dos diferenciais do método proposto em relação aos existentes é contemplar uma compreensiva relação de tipos de impactos indiretos de projetos. A principal contribuição acadêmica e empírica do método é que pode ser aplicado em projetos tecnológicos de diversas áreas além de ser de simples aplicação. / The amount of public investment in Science, Technology and Innovation projects has increased in recent years in the context of developing nations. As a result, it is necessary to check what benefits society is gaining in exchange for the public resources that are invested in this area. This thesis presents the results of a research wich objective is propose a method for the identification of indirect results and impacts of technological projects in the Brazilian context through the approach of Design Science Research. The first stage of the study contemplated a systematic review of the literature in order to identify the existing methods of ex-post evaluation of projects to identify indirect results and impacts. From the gaps and research opportunities found in the literature, the second step proposes a new method to identify the indirect results and impacts generated by technological projects. Still in this second stage, the proposed method is applied in two distinct projects for evaluation. The results of the application of the proposed method indicated that it fills the gaps of approach existing in the ex-post methodologies identified. One of the differentials of the proposed method in relation to the existing ones is to contemplate a comprehensive relation of types of indirect impacts of projects. The main academic and empirical contribution of the method is that it can be applied in technological projects in several areas besides being simple to apply.