Rational expectations provide people or economic agents making future decision with available information and past experiences. The first approach to the idea of rational expectations was given approximately fifty years ago by John F. Muth. Many models in economics have been studied using the rational expectations idea. The most familiar one among them is the rational expectations version of the Cagans hyperination model where the expectation for tomorrow is formed using all the information available today. This model was reinterpreted by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace in 1973. After that time, many solution techniques were suggested to solve the Cagan type rational expectations (CTRE) model. Some economists such as Muth [13], Taylor [26] and Shiller [27] consider the solutions admitting an infinite moving-average representation. Blanchard and Kahn [28] find solutions by using a recursive procedure. A general characterization of the solution was obtained using the martingale approach by Broze, Gourieroux and Szafarz in [22], [23]. We choose to study martingale solution of CTRE model. This thesis is comprised of five chapters where the main aim is to study the CTRE model on isolated time scales. Most of the models studied in economics are continuous or discrete. Discrete models are more preferable by economists since they give more meaningful and accurate results. Discrete models only contain uniform time domains. Time scale calculus enables us to study on m-periodic time domains as well as non periodic time domains. In the first chapter, we give basics of time scales calculus and stochastic calculus. The second chapter is the brief introduction to rational expectations and the CTRE model. Moreover, many other solution techniques are examined in this chapter. After we introduce the necessary background, in the third chapter we construct the CTRE Model on isolated time scales. Then we give the general solution of this model in terms of martingales. We continue our work with defining the linear system and higher order CTRE on isolated time scales. We use Putzer Algorithm to solve the system of the CTRE Model. Then, we examine the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the CTRE model. In the fourth chapter, we apply our solution algorithm developed in the previous chapter to models in Finance and stochastic growth models in Economics.

This study analyzes the users&rsquo / expectations from automobile interface in terms of their subjective assessments and middle class automotive design. The factors that affect the users&rsquo / impressions in both physical and psychological manner are presented. The importance of subjective users&rsquo / expectations and the issue of usability, which is handled from the traditional definition through the pleasure in use context, are discussed. The correlations between the physical appearance and psychological and behavioral responses are examined since the aesthetic properties affect the consumer satisfaction in both physically and psychologically. Automobile interface is identified under the considerations of user expectations. Factors that affect the drivers&rsquo / perception of interior and the decision making process are mentioned regarding with physical and psychological expectations of users. The case study is performed to clarify design criteria of the dashboards that belong to middle class segment under the consideration of Turkish drivers&rsquo / subjective evaluations. The study provides the chance of understanding the consumers&rsquo / attitudes toward the instrument panel elements through their design properties. This study examines and proposes Turkish users&rsquo / preferences and tastes in terms of physical and psychological expectations in the field of automobile interior design. It also provides techniques and results about users&rsquo / subjective evaluations that could be taken into account while designing an automobile belongs to a specific car segment with visual and functional properties of dashboard.

Le lancement d'un nouveau produit sur le marché est une étape à risque pour l'entreprise qui peut se conclure par un échec. Une raison partielle de cet échec est que le produit ne correspond pas aux attentes des consommateurs. L'enjeu consiste donc à mieux comprendre et intégrer dans le design de produits les attentes des consommateurs. Les théories contemporaines en psychologie cognitive nous permettent d'améliorer les méthodologies actuelles de tests consommateurs et à concevoir les produits sur la base des connaissances des consommateurs. L'objectif de cette recherche est de mieux comprendre l'influence d'une adéquation entre les attentes des consommateurs et leurs perceptions sur leurs jugements affectifs dans le contexte de consommation alimentaire. Dans le champ de la cognition incarnée et située, nous avons utilisé la théorie du Perceptual Symbol System qui suppose une forte relation entre les concepts et les propriétés sensorielles. Trois études ont été menées sur des gammes de produits familiers et non familiers. Les résultats nous permettent de conclure que les attentes des consommateurs sont des catégories ad-hoc dépendantes d'une situation de consommation, c'est-à-dire une motivation à consommer le produit dans un contexte de consommation donné. Les propriétés de la catégorie définissent les attentes de type concepts et les propriétés sensorielles attendues du produit. Ainsi, nous avons mis en évidence que les concepts et les propriétés sensorielles sont associées à travers les catégories réactivées en mémoire. Les résultats de cette thèse ont aussi permis de proposer des améliorations aux méthodologies de tests consommateurs. Plus particulièrement, ces méthodologies permettent d'une part d'expliciter les attentes des consommateurs à travers une tâche de catégorisation et d'autre part de sélectionner les produits les plus adéquats aux attentes des consommateurs à travers l'évaluation de leurs jugements affectifs / One challenge when dealing with the launching of new products is to understand consumers’ expectations towards the product experience. Many innovations fail because they do not address the right expectations, for the right consumers, and for the right product.Theories in cognitive psychology allow us to improve current methodologies of consumer tests and to design food products based on the knowledge of consumers. The objective of this research is to better understand the influence of the discrepancy between consumers’ expectations and perceptions on the affective judgment in the context of food consumption. Within the framework of Grounded and Embodied cognition, we use theories developed on Perceptual Symbol System assuming a strong relationship between conceptual knowledge and sensory properties. Three studies were conducted on familiar and non-familiar product ranges. Results allow us to conclude that consumers’ expectations are defined as ad-hoc categories dependent on a situation of consumption, i.e. a motivation to consume the product in a determined context of consumption.Properties of the category define conceptual expectations and expected sensory properties of the product. Thus, we provide evidence that concepts and sensory properties are strongly related through retrieval of categories.The results of this thesis also provide methodological improvements to elicit consumers’ expectations through categorization tasks and to screen samples fitting the best with consumers’ expectations through affective judgment

Medvetna källor till förväntningar från målgruppen visade sig vara tidigare chefer, organisation de tidigare arbetat i, föräldrar, kollegor, utbildning, vänner, underhållning och media och samhällsnormer. Det organisationen gör är betydande för att skapa förväntningar, hos gruppen unga oerfarna chefer. Rekryteringsprocessen, både internrekrytering och externrekrytering, ger tillfällen att hantera, justera och skapa förväntningar under tiden fram till tillträdet både genom explicita diskussioner och erfarenheter inom organisationen. Respondenterna visade tecken på att se vissa förväntningar som självklara, som om deras ursprung var ett slags självklar eller grundläggande allmängiltig sanning. De ser i vissa hänseenden de viktigaste förväntningarna som för självklara för att nämnas. Syftet med denna studie är att bidra till kunskap om ursprung till medvetna förväntningar på den första tjänsten som operativ chef. De mest framträdande ursprungen till förväntningar visade sig i empiriinsamlingen vara tidigare chefer och andra ledarförebilder samt organisationer som respondenterna har erfarenheter ifrån. / Conscious origins of expectations for the respondents were previous managers, the organisation they had worked in, parents, colleagues, educational environment, friends, entertainment and media, and societal norms. What the organisation does is important for creating expectations for the group of inexperienced young managers that were studied. The recruitment process, both internal and external, provides opportunities to handle, adjust and create expectations before employment start, both through explicit discussions and through experiences within the organisation. Respondents showed signs of viewing some expectations as self-evident, as if their origin were a sort of obvious or general truth. They to some degree view the most important (to them) expectations as too self-evident to mention (to a recruiter). The purpose of this study is to contribute to knowledge of origins of conscious expectations on the first position as operative manager. The most common origins in this sample turned out to be previous managers and other leader role models as well as organisations that the respondents have experienced.

Customer service has recently become an important subject with significant consequences for academic institutions. However, there is a lack of research in this area and relevant, scientifically justifiable studies should assist in determining what is required for the provision of good quality service to students. The purpose of this study was to determine the difference between the expectations of service and the perceptions of actual service provided by the Human Resources Department at the University of Pretoria. The respondent group included students from a variety of disciplines who chose Industrial and Organisational Psychology as subject. Based on the survey method a questionnaire was used to gather the relevant information. The literature study identified five important dimensions of customer service namely tangibles, reliability, responsibility, security and empathy. The expectations and perceptions of the students (n=255) of actual service in terms of the above dimensions were determined and weighed against each other. The results of this study showed that although there is room for improvement, the level of customer service provided by the department was proven to be satisfactory. The following conclusions were made regarding the perceptions of the research group in terms of current and expected levels of service. Aspects that appeared to be most satisfactory, were appearance of employees, reliability of lecturers, safety of interaction, time spent with students and keeping of accurate records. There is room for improvement in the following areas: spending time with individuals, current working and consulting hours, efficiency of available facilities and attention given to students' needs. Field of study, age, language, residence, academic and historical year did not have any effect worth mentioning on the perceptions of current levels of service. Biographical variables did have an impact on the expectations of levels of service. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2001. / Human Resource Management / unrestricted

No description available.

[pt] Estudos empíricos de como ações respondem às expectativas são de crescente importância, pois fornecem informações essenciais sobre as escolhas dos agentes e contribuem para modelos teóricos. Nós construímos uma base de dados inédita combinando dados de previsões de investidores institucionais do valor mensal de variáveis macroeconômicas com suas escolhas de portfolio. Essa base nos permite investigar como esses dois aspectos estão correlacionados. Encontramos que um aumento de expectativa de inflação e da expectativa de câmbio estão correlacionados com uma redução na exposição a pré fixados. Também observamos uma correlação negativa entre as expectativas da taxa de juros e a exposição à inflação se controlamos para as expectativas das demais variáveis. / [en] Empirical studies of how actions respond to expectations are of increasing relevance, as they provide vital information on agents choices and contribute to theoretical models. We explore how this pass-through occurs in institutional investors in Brazil. We assemble a novel dataset by matching data on institutions forecasts of inflation, the exchange rate and the interest rate with their hedge funds portfolio holdings. This dataset allows us to investigate how institutional investors expectations are related to their portfolio choices. We document that increases in funds inflation and exchange rate expectations are correlated with decreases in their exposures to fixed rate bonds. We also observe a negative correlation between their expectation of the interest rate and their exposure to inflation bonds once we control for the other variables.

本研究旨在探討幼兒家長對幼兒的學習期望與如何確認期望達成之歷程。因過去的相關文獻以量化調查研究為主，缺乏質性觀點；又過去多以消費者行為模式探討選擇幼兒園的決策行為，但不能深入了解家長選擇這些因素背後的想法。因此本研究以質性訪談的方式，探究家長對幼兒的教育期望、對幼兒園的課程期望與這些期望如何被達成或期望是否改變的歷程，試圖建構家長在選擇幼兒園與對幼兒期望之間的關係。 研究設計上，先就過去文獻之研究進行整理與分析，提出尚未被探究及可深入探究的議題，蒐集相關資料而擬定訪談大綱，針對台北市公私立幼兒園大班家長進行深入訪談，公私立幼兒園各兩所共計十四位家長。 本研究結論可歸納為下列五點： 一、教育期望:公私立家長對幼兒學習的教育期望主要皆為生活自理、人際互動、品格個性與認知學習等等；而在認知學習上公私立幼兒園家長看法不同。 二、課程期望:公私立家長對幼兒學習的課程期望都會先要求教學方式，再要求與教育期望相關的課程內容，其中，私立家長進而要求認知方面的課程；此外，公私立家長都會期望園所在音樂或工作等美感領域課程上進行多元化或才藝教學。 三、期望確認:公私立家長都會將選擇幼兒園前的期望與選擇後的經驗做確認，確認方式以觀察幼兒在學校或家庭中的行為表現為主，而參與園所活動也是家長了解課程的一種方式。四、滿意度:樣本家長對幼兒園滿意度高，滿意的項目集中在課程與師資上；而期望確認及其歸因推論影響滿意度。五、期望改變:公立幼兒園家長對幼兒的課程期望會因園所特色而改變，並隨著上小學的時間拉進，公私立家長皆會增加與銜接小學相關的新期望。 根據研究結論，本研究對幼兒園提出以下建議，做為增進幼兒園品質參考： 一、幼兒園需要了解家長的期望，跟著家長一起做確認，幫助教師與園所看見家長觀點進而反思與成長。二、建立園所教學特色並努力發展，成為有深度的課程。 三、教師應幫助家長用更多的方式來確認學習，以客觀的資料去補充主觀的觀察結果。四、教師應讓家長看見教學的多元化，用不同的方式讓家長了解音樂或美術等方面的課程是包含在原本的課程規劃中；教師也應加強美感領域課程的專業能力。 / The purpose of this study is to inquire parent's perspective of early children’s learning expectation and outcomes confirmation. There are many quantitative studies about this process, while few are conducted qualitatively. In the past few years, most research focus on how to make a decision to choose kindergartens by consumer’s decision behavior. But we can’t understand what the real reasons of the parents’ decision. This study explores the parents’ educational expectations on early children in a qualitative way, including curriculum expectations and how these expectations will be achieved or changed, attempt to construct the relationship between the choice of kindergartens and child learning expectations. In this research, we review prior studies and purpose issues that has not yet been explored and can be in-depth inquired, gathering relevant information and arranging the interview outline for the Taipei public and private kindergarten parents, a total of fourteen parents in two public and two private kindergartens. The conclusions of this study can be summarized as the following five points: First, educational expectations: public and private kindergarten parents have different views on the cognitive learning. Second, the curriculum expectations: In addition to the curriculum related to educational expectations, parents would expect the music or arts-type learning, they hope kindergarten provide the field of diversified curriculum or skills and talent teaching. Third, expectation confirmation: parents really do expect confirmation, confirm the performance of the main way to observe the behavior of children in school or at home, and participate in kindergarten activities also the way of parents to confirm the curriculum. Forth, satisfaction: parents kindergarten satisfaction is high, satisfactory project focused on curriculum and teacher; expect recognition and attributed inference affect satisfaction. Fifth, the expectations change: the curriculum expectations of public kindergarten parents will change with kindergarten’s features, and parents would increase the new expectations related to the convergence Primary.

Unsere Fähigkeit Erwartungen auszubilden über zukünftige Ereignisse oder die Ergebnisse unserer eigenen Handlungen ist von entscheidender Bedeutung für zielgerichtetes Verhalten. Obgleich diese Ansicht einer Reihe von einflussreichen theoretischen Strömungen in der kognitiven Psychologie zugrunde liegt, bleiben bislang wichtige Fragen dazu offen. Jüngere Ergebnisse aus neurophysiologischen und Bildgebungsstudien legen nahe, dass bewusste Ziele – ähnlich expliziter Erwartung – nicht mehr sind als ein Nebenprodukt von automatischen und unbewussten Aktivierungsmustern und keinen echten Einfluss auf Verhalten haben. Explizite subjektive Erwartung wird vielmals abgetan, weil sie kein zuverlässiges Maß „wahrer“ mentaler Prozesse darstelle, oder weil sie nicht notwendig sei, um Verhalten zu erklären. In der vorliegenden Arbeit beschäftige ich mich mit der Rolle expliziter subjektiver Erwartung und untersuche die folgenden Fragen: (1) Sind verbalisierte Vorhersagen ein valider Indikator für intern generierte Erwartungen? (2) Haben solche Erwartungen tatsächlich einen Einfluss auf Handlungsvorbereitung? (3) Worin besteht der Unterschied zwischen Erwartungen, die auf äußeren oder inneren Quellen beruhen? Die Ergebnisse aus drei Studien, die ich im Rahmen dieser Dissertation durchgeführt habe, belegen, dass verbalisierte Vorhersagen ein valider Indikator von subjektiver Erwartung sind. Subjektive Erwartung kann nicht als ein Nebenprodukt von Handlungsvorbereitung verstanden werden, sondern trägt zu dieser bei und spielt daher eine wichtige Rolle in der Handlungskontrolle. Selbstgenerierte Erwartung beeinflusst gegenüber Cue-induzierter Erwartung verstärkt frühe Aufmerksamkeits- und zentrale Entscheidungsprozesse. Selbstgenerierte Vorhersagen führen zu verstärkten Verhaltenseffekten, und zwar sowohl bei Stimuluserwartungen als auch bei Erwartungen bezüglich einer Aufgabe. Subjektive Erwartung ist demnach auch entscheidend für kognitive Kontrolle. / Our ability to form expectations about future events or the results of our own actions is crucial for efficient behavior. While this notion underlies a range of influential theoretical approaches in cognitive psychology, from reinforcement learning to ideo-motor theory, a number of open questions remain. Recent results from neurophysiological and brain imaging studies suggest that conscious intention – or explicit expectation – is nothing more than a by-product of automatic and unconscious activation patterns, without any real impact on behavior. Explicit subjective expectation has been dismissed by many researchers who regard it either an unreliable measure of “true” mental processes, or question its necessity in explaining behavior in general. In the current work, I focus on the role of explicit subjective expectation and attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Are verbalized predictions a valid indicator of internally generated expectations? (2) Do such expectations really affect action preparation? (3) What are the differences between expectations arising from external or internal sources? Results from the three studies conducted within the scope of this dissertation demonstrate that verbalized predictions are in fact a valid indicator of subjective expectation and are suitable for use in experimental paradigms. Also, subjective expectation cannot be described as a mere by-product of preparation, but instead feeds into preparation and therefore plays a role in action control. Self-generated expectation was shown to involve early attentional and central decision processes to a greater degree than cue-induced expectation. Consequently, self-generated predictions entailed greater behavioral effects not only for stimulus expectations, but also for expectations regarding a task set. Subjective expectation is therefore also elemental in cognitive control.

Es wird vielfach postuliert, dass Erwartungen Bedeutung für den Verlauf und die Ergebnisse einer medizinischen Rehabilitationsmaßnahme haben (vgl. Deck, 1999; Deck, Zimmermann, Kohlmann & Raspe, 1998b; Faller, Vogel & Bosch, 2000; Hafen, Bengel, Jastrebow & Nübling, 2000; Kühn, Pannicke, Mohs & Schneider, 2001). Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird diese Thematik aus einer gesundheitspsychologischen Perspektive untersucht. Die sozial-kognitive Theorie von Bandura (1997) wird gewählt, in der Erwartungen wie Ergebnis- und Selbstwirksamkeitserwartungen als zentrale Prädiktoren von gesundheitlichen Ergebnissen angesehen werden. Diese Theorie vermag den Einfluss von Erwartungen auf Gesundheitsverhalten und den Gesundheitszustand zu erklären und zugleich auch die Bildung von Erwartungen zu beschreiben. Auch wenn Ergebniserwartungen die Behandlungsergebnisse vorhersagen, können Diskrepanzen zwischen den anfänglichen Erwartungen der Patienten und ihren Behandlungsergebnissen vorliegen. Aus einer Selbstregulationsperspektive wird angenommen, dass unerwartet schlechte Behandlungsergebnisse möglicherweise negative emotionale und motivationale Folgen haben, die sich auf den weiteren Rehabilitationsprozess auswirken. Zur Erklärung dieser Effekte wird im zweiten Teil der Arbeit ein Modell vorgestellt, das die zentralen Konstrukte und Annahmen der sozial-kognitiven Theory von Bandura (1997; Marlatt & Gordon, 1985), der Selbstregulationstheorie von Carver and Scheier (1998) und der kognitiv-transaktionalen Stresstheorie von Lazarus (1991) vereint. Die Daten der zweiten multizentrischen MSK-QMS Studie zur stationären Rehabilitation nach Hüftgelenkersatz bot als Längsschnittstudie die Möglichkeit, die Fragestellungen beider Teile der Arbeit empirisch zu untersuchen. An dieser Studie nahmen 1065 Rehabilitanden nach Hüftgelenkersatz teil. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen, dass positive Ergebniserwartungen und hohe Selbstwirksamkeitserwartungen gute Behandlungsergebnisse bei Patienten einer stationären Rehabilitationsmaßnahme nach Hüftgelenkersatz vorhersagen. Weitere Analysen zeigen, dass die Erwartungen zu Reha-Beginn durch verschiedene direkte und symbolische Erfahrungen sowie Indikatoren des körperlichen und emotionalen Zustandes beeinflusst werden. Darüber hinaus haben Diskrepanzen zwischen anfänglichen Erwartungen und Behandlungsergebnissen (indirekte) emotionale sowie (direkte und indirekte) motivationale Effekte. Die Befunde werden theoretisch eingebettet und theoriegestützt interpretiert. Praktische Konsequenzen werden abgeleitet. / There is a growing body of literature emphasizing that expectations have effects on the process and outcomes of an inpatient rehabilitation (cp. Deck, 1999; Deck, Zimmermann, Kohlmann & Raspe, 1998b; Faller, Vogel & Bosch, 2000; Hafen, Bengel, Jastrebow & Nübling, 2000; Kühn, Pannicke, Mohs & Schneider, 2001). The first part of the present thesis examines this issue from a health psychology perspective. The social-cognitive theory of Bandura (1997) is chosen that postulates expectations such as outcome expectancies and perceived self-efficacy as main predictors of health outcomes. This theory is able to explain how expectations affect health behaviour and health outcomes and how expectations are formed. Even though outcome expectations predict health outcomes, patients may experience discrepancies between their initial expectations and their later health outcomes. From a self-regulation perspective it is assumed that the experience of unexpected worse health outcomes may have negative emotional and motivational consequences that affect the further process of rehabilitation. To describe these effects a model is introduced in the second part of the thesis that includes main constructs and assumptions of the social-cognitive theory of Bandura (1997; Marlatt & Gordon, 1985), the self-regulation theory of Carver and Scheier (1998) and the cognitiv-transactional theory of Lazarus (1991). In both parts of the thesis research questions are derived that are tested in a longitudinal study (MSK-QMS study). The participants are 1065 adult inpatients who had undergone elective total hip replacement surgery. The results confirm that positive outcome expectations and high perceived self-efficacy predicted better health outcomes in inpatients after hip replacement surgery. Further analyses indicate, that patients'' expectations at admission are affected by several direct and symbolic experiences as well as different indicators of physical and emotional states. Moreover, discrepancies between initial outcome expectations and later health outcomes have (indirect) emotional and (direct and indirect) motivational effects. The results are theory based interpreted. Practical consequences are derived.