本文應用資產報酬率的多重碎形模型，該模型為一整合財務時間序列上的厚尾及波動持續性的連續時間過程。多重碎形的方法允許我們估計隨時間變動的報酬率高階動差，進而推論財務時間序列的產生機制。我們利用小波轉換的模數最大值計算多重碎形譜，透過譜分解得到資產報率分配的高階動差資訊。根據實證結果，我們得到S&P和DJIA的股價指數期貨報酬率符合動差尺度行為且資料也展現幕律的形態。根據估計出的譜形態為對數常態分配。實證結果也顯示S&P和DJIA的股價指數期貨報酬率均具有長記憶及多重碎形的特性。 / We apply the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR), a class of continuous-time processes that incorporate the thick tails and volatility persistence of financial time series. The multifractal approach allows for higher moments of returns that may vary with the time horizon and leads to infer about the generating mechanism of the financial time series. The multifractal spectrum is calculated by the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) provides information on the higher moments of the distribution of asset returns and the multiplicative cascade of volatilities. We obtain the evidences of multifractality in the moment-scaling behavior of S&P and DJIA stock index futures returns and the moments of the data represent a power law. According to the shape of the estimated spectrum we infer a log normal distribution.The empirical evidences show that both of them have long memory and multifractal property.

Traditionally, source coding (data compression) and channel coding (error protection) are performed separately and sequentially, resulting in what we call a tandem (separate) coding system. In practical implementations, however, tandem coding might involve a large delay and a high coding/decoding complexity, since one needs to remove the redundancy in the source coding part and then insert certain redundancy in the channel coding part. On the other hand, joint source-channel coding (JSCC), which coordinates source and channel coding or combines them into a single step, may offer substantial improvements over the tandem coding approach. This thesis deals with the fundamental Shannon-theoretic limits for a variety of communication systems via JSCC. More specifically, we investigate the reliability function (which is the largest rate at which the coding probability of error vanishes exponentially with increasing blocklength) for JSCC for the following discrete-time communication systems: (i) discrete memoryless systems; (ii) discrete memoryless systems with perfect channel feedback; (iii) discrete memoryless systems with source side information; (iv) discrete systems with Markovian memory; (v) continuous-valued (particularly Gaussian) memoryless systems; (vi) discrete asymmetric 2-user source-channel systems. For the above systems, we establish upper and lower bounds for the JSCC reliability function and we analytically compute these bounds. The conditions for which the upper and lower bounds coincide are also provided. We show that the conditions are satisfied for a large class of source-channel systems, and hence exactly determine the reliability function. We next provide a systematic comparison between the JSCC reliability function and the tandem coding reliability function (the reliability function resulting from separate source and channel coding). We show that the JSCC reliability function is substantially larger than the tandem coding reliability function for most cases. In particular, the JSCC reliability function is close to twice as large as the tandem coding reliability function for many source-channel pairs. This exponent gain provides a theoretical underpinning and justification for JSCC design as opposed to the widely used tandem coding method, since JSCC will yield a faster exponential rate of decay for the system error probability and thus provides substantial reductions in complexity and coding/decoding delay for real-world communication systems. / Thesis (Ph.D, Mathematics & Statistics) -- Queen's University, 2008-05-13 22:31:56.425

<p>This study examines the behaviour of the South African financial markets with regards to the Geometric Brownian motion process. It uses the daily, weekly, and monthly stock returns time series of some major securities trading in the South African financial market, more specifically the US dollar/Euro, JSE ALSI Total Returns Index, South African All Bond Index, Anglo American Corporation, Standard Bank, Sasol, US dollar Gold Price , Brent spot oil price, and South African white maize near future. The assumptions underlying the&nbsp / Geometric Brownian motion in finance, namely the stationarity, the normality and the independence of stock returns, are tested using both graphical (histograms and normal plots)&nbsp / and statistical test (Kolmogorov-Simirnov test, Box-Ljung statistic and Augmented Dickey-Fuller test) methods to check whether or not the Brownian motion as a model for South&nbsp / African financial markets holds. The Hurst exponent or independence index is also applied to support the results from the previous test. Theoretically, the independent or Geometric&nbsp / Brownian motion time series should be characterised by the Hurst exponent of &frac12 / . A value of a Hurst exponent different from that would indicate the presence of long memory or&nbsp / fractional Brownian motion in a time series. The study shows that at least one assumption is violated when the Geometric Brownian motion process is examined assumption by&nbsp / assumption. It also reveals the presence of both long memory and random walk or Geometric Brownian motion in the South African financial markets returns when the Hurst index analysis is used and finds that the Currency market is the most efficient of the South African financial markets. The study concludes that although some assumptions underlying the&nbsp / rocess are violated, the Brownian motion as a model in South African financial markets can not be rejected. It can be accepted in some instances if some parameters such as the Hurst exponent are added.</p>

Multipath propagation and mobility in wireless communication systems give rise to variations in the amplitude and phase of the transmitted signal, commonly referred to as fading. Many wireless applications are affected by slowly varying fading, where the channel is non-ergodic, leading to non-reliable transmission during bad channel realizations. These communication scenarios are well modeled by the block-fading channel, where the reliability is quantatively characterized by the outage probability. This thesis focuses on the analysis and design of adaptive transmission schemes to improve the outage performance of both single- and multiple-antenna transmission over the block-fading channel, especially for the cases where discrete input constellations are used. Firstly, a new lower bound on the outage probability of non-adaptive transmission is proposed, providing an efficient tool for evaluating the performance of non-adaptive transmission. The lower bound, together with its asymptotic analysis, is essential for efficiently designing the adaptive transmission schemes considered in the thesis. Secondly, new power allocation rules are derived to minimize the outage probability of fixed-rate transmission over block-fading channels. Asymptotic outage analysis for the resulting schemes is performed, revealing important system design criteria. Furthermore, the thesis proposes novel suboptimal power allocation rules, which enjoy low-complexity while suffering minimal losses as compared to the optimal solution. Thus, these schemes facilitate power adaptation in low-cost devices. Thirdly, the thesis considers incremental-redundancy automatic-repeat-request (INR-ARQ) strategies, which perform adaptive transmission based on receiver feedback. In particular, the thesis concentrates on multi-bit feedback, which has been shown to yield significant gains in performance compared to conventional single-bit ARQ schemes. The thesis proposes a new information-theoretic framework for multi-bit feedback INR-ARQ, whereby the receiver feeds back a quantized version of the accumulated mutual information. Within this framework, the thesis presents an asymptotic analysis which yields the large gains in outage performance offered by multi-bit feedback. Furthermore, the thesis proposes practical design rules, which further illustrates the benefits of multi-bit feedback in INR-ARQ systems. In short, the thesis studies the outage performance of transmission over block-fading channels. Outage analysis is performed for non-adaptive and adaptive transmission. Improvements for the existing adaptive schemes are also proposed, leading to either lower complexity requirements or better outage performance. Still, further research is needed to bring the benefits offered by adaptive transmission into practical systems. / Thesis (PhD)--University of South Australia, 2010

Multipath propagation and mobility in wireless communication systems give rise to variations in the amplitude and phase of the transmitted signal, commonly referred to as fading. Many wireless applications are affected by slowly varying fading, where the channel is non-ergodic, leading to non-reliable transmission during bad channel realizations. These communication scenarios are well modeled by the block-fading channel, where the reliability is quantatively characterized by the outage probability. This thesis focuses on the analysis and design of adaptive transmission schemes to improve the outage performance of both single- and multiple-antenna transmission over the block-fading channel, especially for the cases where discrete input constellations are used. Firstly, a new lower bound on the outage probability of non-adaptive transmission is proposed, providing an efficient tool for evaluating the performance of non-adaptive transmission. The lower bound, together with its asymptotic analysis, is essential for efficiently designing the adaptive transmission schemes considered in the thesis. Secondly, new power allocation rules are derived to minimize the outage probability of fixed-rate transmission over block-fading channels. Asymptotic outage analysis for the resulting schemes is performed, revealing important system design criteria. Furthermore, the thesis proposes novel suboptimal power allocation rules, which enjoy low-complexity while suffering minimal losses as compared to the optimal solution. Thus, these schemes facilitate power adaptation in low-cost devices. Thirdly, the thesis considers incremental-redundancy automatic-repeat-request (INR-ARQ) strategies, which perform adaptive transmission based on receiver feedback. In particular, the thesis concentrates on multi-bit feedback, which has been shown to yield significant gains in performance compared to conventional single-bit ARQ schemes. The thesis proposes a new information-theoretic framework for multi-bit feedback INR-ARQ, whereby the receiver feeds back a quantized version of the accumulated mutual information. Within this framework, the thesis presents an asymptotic analysis which yields the large gains in outage performance offered by multi-bit feedback. Furthermore, the thesis proposes practical design rules, which further illustrates the benefits of multi-bit feedback in INR-ARQ systems. In short, the thesis studies the outage performance of transmission over block-fading channels. Outage analysis is performed for non-adaptive and adaptive transmission. Improvements for the existing adaptive schemes are also proposed, leading to either lower complexity requirements or better outage performance. Still, further research is needed to bring the benefits offered by adaptive transmission into practical systems. / Thesis (PhD)--University of South Australia, 2010

Thesis (M.A.)--Miami University, Dept. of Psychology, 2009. / Title from first page of PDF document. Includes bibliographical references (p. 43-47).

Les îles tropicales sont soumises à un ennuagement hétérogène et changeant rapidement. Par ailleurs, elles ont une ressource solaire importante mais significativement variable d’un jour à l’autre. Dans le sud-ouest de l’océan indien (SWIO), La Réunion fait partie de ces îles tropicales ayant un potentiel solaire colossal mais fortement intermittent. Dans cette étude, nous proposons une nouvelle approche de prévision déterministe des cartes journalières rayonnement solaire (SSR), basée sur quatre modèles de régression linéaire : une régression linéaire multiple (MLR), une régression en composantes principales (PCR), une régression des moindres carrés (PLSR) et une régression pas à pas (stepwise--SR). Ces quatre régressions sont appliquées sur les données satellites SARAH-E (CM SAF) à 5km de résolution entre 2007 et 2016, en vue d’en effectuer la prévision. Pour obtenir de meilleures performances, nous proposons d'inclure les paramètres multi-fractale (H,C_1 et α) comme nouveaux paramètres prédictifs. Ceux-ci sont obtenus à partir de l'analyse de l'intermittence du SSR basée sur la méthode d’analyse d’ordre spectral arbitraire de Hilbert. Cette analyse qui est une extension de la transformation d’Hilbert Huang (HHT) est utilisée afin d’estimer l’exposant d’échelle ξ(q). On effectue la combinaison d’une décomposition en mode empirique et de l’analyse spectrale de Hilbert (EMD + HSA). Dans une première étape, l’analyse multi-fractale est appliquée sur une mesure du SSR d'une seconde échelle à partir d'un pyranomètre SPN1 à Moufia en 2016. La moyenne infra journalière, journalière et saisonnière de la structure multi-fractale a été dérivée, et la loi d’échelle d’exposants ξ(q) a été analysée. Dans une seconde partie, l’analyse de l’intermittence est effectuée sur les mesures du SSR, d'une période d’une minute, à partir le réseau de SPN1 contenant 11 stations en 2014. Les modèles spatiaux pour toutes les stations avec les paramètres multi-fractales H,C_1 et α sont mis en évidence. La variabilité de la largeur du spectre de singularité est considérée pour étudier l'intermittence spatiale et la multi-fractalité dans l'échelle quotidienne et l'échelle saisonnière. Sur la base de ces analyses d'intermittence faites sur les mesures de plusieurs stations, les paramètres multi-fractaux universels (H,C_1 et α) pourraient être choisis comme de nouveaux prédicteurs afin d’indiquer les propriétés multi-fractales du SSR. / Due to the heterogeneous and rapidly-changing cloudiness, tropical islands, such as Reunion Island in the South-west Indian Ocean (SWIO), have significant solar resource that is highly variable from day-to-day. In this study, we propose a new approach for deterministic prediction of daily surface solar radiation (SSR) maps based on four linear regression models: multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares regression (PLSR), and stepwise regression (SR), that we have applied on the SARAH-E@5km satellite data (CM SAF) for the period during 2007-2016. To improve the accuracy of prediction, the multifractal parameters (H,C_1 and α) are proposed to include as new predictors in the predictive model. These parameters are obtained from the analysis of SSR intermittency based on arbitrary order Hilbert spectral analysis. This analysis is the extension of Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) and it is used to estimate the generalized scaling exponent ξ(q). It is the combination of the Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert spectral analysis (EMD+HSA). In a first step, the multifractal analysis is applied onto one-second SSR measurements form a SPN1 pyranometer in Moufia in 2016. The mean sub-daily, daily and seasonal daily multifractal patterns are derived, and the scaling exponent ξ(q) is analyzed. In a second step, the intermittency study is conducted on one-minute SSR measurements from a SPN1 network with 11 stations in 2014. The spatial patterns for all the stations with the multifractal parameters H,C_1 and α are shown. The variability of singularity spectrum width is considered to study the spatial intermittency at the daily and seasonal scale. Based on this intermittency analysis from measurements at several stations, the universal multifractal parameters (H,C_1 and α) could be taken as new predictors for indicating the multifractal properties of SSR.

La dynamique des systèmes hyperboliques est considérée bien comprise du point de vue topologique aussi bien que du point de vue stochastique. S. Smale et R. Abraham ont donné un exemple montrant que, en général, les systèmes hyperboliques ne sont pas denses parmi tous les systèmes diffélrentiables. Dans les années 1970, M. Brin et Y. Pesin ont proposé une nouvelle notion: hyperbolicité partielle pour affaiblir la notion d’hyperbolicité. Un but de cette thèse est de comprendre la dynamique de certains systèmes partiellement hyperboliques du point de vue stochastique aussi bien que du point de vue topologique. Du point de vue stochastique, nous démontrons les résultats suivants: — Il existe un sous-ensemble U ouvert et dense de difféomorphismes non hyperboliques robustement transitifs loin de tangences homocliniques, tels que pour tout f ∈ U, il existe des mesures ergodiques non hyperboliques qui sont limite faible des mesures périodiques, avec un seul exposant de Lyapunov nul, et dont les supports sont la variété entière; — Il existe un sous-ensemble ouvert et dense de l’ensemble des difféomorphismes partiellement hyperboliques (mais non hyperboliques) de dimension centrale un dont les feuilletages forts sont robustement minimaux, de sorte que la fermeture de l’ensemble des mesures ergodiques est l’union de deux convexes qui sont la fermeture des ensembles de mesures ergodiques hyperboliques de deux s-indices différents respectivement; ces deux ensembles convexes se coupent le long de la fermeture de l’ensemble des mesures ergodiques non hyperboliques. Par conséquent, toute mesure ergodique non hyperbolique est approchée par des mesures périodiques. C’est le cas pour une perturbation robustement transitive du temps un d’un flot d’Anosov transitif, ou du produit fibré d’un difféomorphisme d’Anosov sur le tore par une rotation du cercle. Ces résultats sont basés sur des résultats locaux dont les démonstrations impliquent beaucoup de définitions techniques. Du point de vue topologique, pour tout flot d’Anosov non transitif sur des variétés de dimension 3 orientables, nous construisons de nouveaux difféomorphismes partiellement hyperboliques en composant le temps t des flots d’Anosov (pour t > 0 large) avec des twists de Dehn le long des tores transversaux. Ces nouveaux difféomorphismes partiellement hyperboliques sont robustement dynamiquement cohérents. Cela généralise dans un cas général le processus spécial dans [BPP] pour construire de nouveaux difféomorphismes partiellement hyperboliques. De plus, nous démontrons que pour les nouveaux difféomorphismes partiellement hyperboliques que nous avons construits, leurs feuilletages centraux sont topologiquement équivalentes aux flots d’Anosov utilisés pour les construire. En conséquence, la structure des feuilles centrales des nouveaux difféomorphismes partiellement hyperboliques est la même que la structure des orbites d’un flot d’Anosov. La présence de mesures ergodiques non hyperboliques montre la non hyperbolicité des systémes. Dans cette thése, nous cherchons également à comprendre: dans quelle mesure la présence de mesures ergodiques non hyperboliques peut-elle caractériser le degré de non-hyperbolicité des systèmes? Nous démontrons que, pour les difféomorphismes génériques, si une classe homoclinique contient des orbites périodiques d’indices différents et sans certaines dominations, il existe une mesure ergodique non hyperbolique avec plus d’un exposant de Lyapunov qui s’annule et dont le support est la classe homoclinique entière. Le nombre d’exposants de Lyapunov nuls montre combien d’hyperbolicité a été perdue dans un tel type de systèmes. / The dynamics of hyperbolic systems is considered well understood from topological point of view as well as from stochastic point of view. S. Smale and R. Abraham gave an example showing that, in general, the hyperbolic systems are not dense among all differentiable systems. In 1970s, M. Brin and Y. Pesin proposed a new notion: partial hyperbolicity to release the notion of hyperbolicity. One aim of this thesis is to understand the dynamics of certain partially hyperbolic systems from stochastic point of view as well as from topological point of view. From stochastic point of view, we prove the following results: — There exists an open and dense subset U of robustly transitive nonhyperbolic diffeomorphisms far from homoclinic tangency, such that forany f ∈ U, there exist non-hyperbolic ergodic measures as the weak*- limit of periodic measures, with only one vanishing Lyapunov exponent, and whose supports are the whole manifold; — There exists an open and dense subset of partially hyperbolic (but nonhyperbolic) diffeomorphisms with center dimension one whose strong foliations are robustly minimal, such that the closure of the set of ergodic measures is the union of two convex sets which are the closure of the sets of hyperbolic ergodic measures of two different s-indices respectively; these two convex sets intersect along the closure of the set of nonhyperbolic ergodic measures. As a consequence, every non-hyperbolic ergodic measure is approximated by periodic measures. That is the case for robustly transitive perturbation of the time one map of a transitive Anosov flow, or of the skew product of an Anosov torus diffeomorphism by a rotation of the circle. These results are based on some local results whose statements involve in lots of technical definitions. From topological point of view, for any non-transitive Anosov flow on orientable 3-manifolds, we build new partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms by composing the time t-map of the Anosov flow (for t > 0 large) with Dehn twists along transverse tori. These new partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms are robustly dynamically coherent. This generalizes the special process in [BPP] for constructing new partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms to a general case. Furthermore, we prove that for the new partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms we built, their center foliations are topologically equivalent to the Anosov flows used for building them. As a consequence, one has that the structure of the center leaves of the new partially hyperbolic diffeomorphisms is the same asthe structure of the orbits of an Anosov flow. The presence of non-hyperbolic ergodic measures shows the non-hyperbolicity of the systems. In this thesis, we also attempt to understand: to what extent, can the presence of non-hyperbolic ergodic measures character how far from hyperbolicity the systems are? We prove that, for generic diffeomorphisms, if a homoclinic class contains periodic orbits of different indices and without certain dominations, then there exists a non-hyperbolic ergodic measure with more than one vanishing Lyapunov exponents and whose support is the whole homoclinic class. The number of vanishing Lyapunov exponents shows how much hyperbolicity has been lost in such kind of systems.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:27:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1610.pdf: 953018 bytes, checksum: 71de779ec49ee3cef03c3060c45a97f3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-11-20 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / In this work, we will study the existence and nonexistence of positive weak solutions for two classes of elliptic systems with weights. The first class will involve nonlinearities of the type positone and semipositone. We will prove a strong maximum principle, and we will obtain some properties of the first eigenfunction of the eigenvalue problem associated to our operator, and also we will prove the sub and supersolution method. The second class will involve a nonlinear perturbation. We will use the variational methods to study the subcritical and critical situations, and under certain hypotheses, we will show the existence of a second weak solution. / Neste trabalho, estudaremos a existência e inexistência de solução fraca positiva para duas classes de sistemas elípticos com pesos. A primeira classe envolverá não linearidades do tipo positônico e semipositônico. Provaremos um princípio de máximo forte, e obteremos algumas propriedades da primeira autofunção do problema de autovalor associado ao nosso operador, e também provaremos o método de sub e supersolução. A segunda classe que consideraremos terá uma perturbação não linear. Usaremos os métodos variacionais para estudar tanto a situação subcrítica quanto à situação crítica, e sob certas hipóteses, mostraremos a existência de uma segunda solução fraca.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:27:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3466.pdf: 565162 bytes, checksum: 770041f07c68eda588bd0c501dabe93d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-10 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / In this work we analyze the existence of radially symmetric solutions, positive solutions as well as the existence of ground state solutions for a class of Klein-Gordon-Maxwell equations when the nonlinearity exhibits critical behavior. For the positive and ground state solutions we prove existence results when a potential V is introduced. In order to obtain such results, we use variational methods / Neste trabalho analisamos a existência de soluções radialmente simétricas, soluções positivas, bem como a existência de soluções ground state para uma classe de equações do tipo Klein-Gordon-Maxwell quando a não-linearidade exibe comportamento crítico. Para as soluções positivas e do tipo ground state provamos resultados de existência quando um potencial V é introduzido. A fim de obtermos tais resultados, usamos métodos variacionais.