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Cette étude examine comment l’argument de la pente glissante est employé dans les débats sur l’avortement et sur l’euthanasie. L’hypothèse est la suivante : l’argument de la pente glissante peut être utilisé de manière fallacieuse dans certains cas, mais il peut également s’avérer raisonnable dans d’autres. L’objectif de cette étude est d’étudier certains arguments récurrents du discours bioéthique afin de tester leur pertinence, leur validité et leurs conséquences sur le plan philosophique. Cette étude se divise en deux parties. La première partie s’intéresse à l’usage de la pente glissante de type « sorite » dans le débat sur l’avortement. La deuxième partie se penche sur l’argument de la pente glissante complète telle qu’il est employé dans le débat sur l’euthanasie. / This study examines how the slippery slope argument is used in debates on abortion and euthanasia. The hypothesis is that the slippery slope argument can be used wrongfully in some cases, but it may also be reasonable in others. The objective of this study is to investigate some of the recurring arguments in bioethics in order to test their relevance, validity and their impact on the philosophical level. This study is divided into two parts. The first part focuses on the use of the “sorites” slippery slope argument in the abortion debate. The second part focuses on the “full slippery slope argument” as used in the debate on euthanasia.

This thesis focused on disinformation, providing analysis of media system in the Czech Republic. The main focus is on content analysis of disinformations and their persuasive function - explaining what are the ain characteristics of those news and which lingual and rhetorical tools they use. The main tool which is discussed and analysed in this thesis is fallacy, false or invalid arguments. Disinformation phenomenon and its place in today's world is explained in their first part of the thesis. The second, empirical part of the thesis looks at specific examples of disinformations which were published at selected Czech disinformation news websites (Aaronet, AC24, Instory.cz). Selection of those websites was guided by their diversity when it comes to structure and themes. The sample of analysed articles was subject to predefined standards, chosing articles with the theme of immigration crisis which were published between 2015 and 2017.

Frequently in MMORPGs, players will encounter something known to players as farming or grinding. Grinding is a controversial matter in the gaming community, as many do not enjoy it and see it as a sign of lazy and poor game design. However, it is a difficult topic to argue as whatever is a grind, differs for each person. To elevate the discussion about grinds in the gaming community, this paper aims to give a definition of grinds and answer how they are perceived by players and designers alike. Grinds are argued to be dull, tedious and monotonous, but they are ever prevalent in games today.  To find what differentiates between a satisfying or waste of time grinding, this paper also aims to discover what makes a grind enjoyable, and when they are appropriate.  The results of this paper are built upon previous works and media on game design and grinds. Interviews were held with players that grind to get a deeper understanding of what drives players to grind. The results define grinds as the act of doing something repeatedly for one's own gain. Seven sub-grinds that are found in different games were defined, each with varying characteristics. Grinds are not inherently bad, despite the negative connotations. They are like any other aspect of a game, they can be executed well or poorly. The developers' responsibility is to design a well-balanced grind that does not hinder players from doing what they like and deliver a satisfying experience.

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yes / The present article proposes to re-examine the parity-of-reasoning or double-standard fallacy argument, which favours a time-symmetric Gold universe model over a cosmological arrow of time. There are two reasons for this re-examination. One is empirical: 1) the recent discovery of an expanding and accelerating universe questions the symmetry assumption of the Gold universe on empirical grounds; 2) the other is theoretical: the argument from t-symmetry fails to take into account some important aspects of the topology of phase space and recently developed typicality arguments. If the parity-of-reasoning argument, which depends on the t-symmetry of probability, is reconsidered in terms of the topology of phase space and typicality arguments, the double-standard fallacy argument loses much of its appeal. The Gold universe model itself suffers from unexplained dynamic asymmetries. The upshot of this paper is that the Gold universe model is implausible or far less plausible than asymmetric models.

Health studies often rely on aggregated instead of individual-level data to protect patient privacy. However, aggregated data are subject to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), meaning results of statistical analyses may differ depending on the data's scale and areal unit. Past studies have suggested MAUP is context-specific and analyzing multiple spatial scales may provide richer understandings of examined phenomena. More research is needed to understand the role of scale and areal unit in health-related analyses. This study examines associations between surface mining and birth outcomes from 1989 to 2015 in Central Appalachia at the individual; postal; county; and county-sized, non-administrative scales. Evidence from previous studies suggests associations exist between health outcomes and county-level measures of mining activity. This is the first study to examine associations between mining and birth outcomes at more spatially refined exposure estimates. We identified surface mines using Landsat imagery and geocoded birth records. Airsheds, used to quantify the influence area of potential airborne pollutants from surface mining activity, were built using HYSPLIT4. The frequency values of each airshed that intersected each geocoded birth record were summed. These cumulative frequency airshed values were then aggregated. Finally, we implemented multiple regression models, each at a different scale, to examine associations between airsheds and birth outcomes. Results suggest MAUP has minimal impacts on the statistical results of examining associations between surface mining and birth outcomes in Central Appalachia. Results also indicate surface mining is significantly associated with preterm birth and reduced birthweight at each scale. / Master of Science / Health studies often rely on data that has been grouped together within political boundaries (e.g. counties) instead of individual-level data to protect patient privacy. However, results from analyses using grouped data may differ depending on the data's scale and areal unit, which describes the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). Past studies have suggested MAUP is specific to the situation being analyzed and examining multiple scales may provide richer understandings of the situation. More research is needed to understand the role of scale and areal unit choice in health-related analyses. This study examines associations between surface mining and birth outcomes from 1989 to 2015 in Central Appalachia at the individual; postal; county; and county-sized, non-administrative scales. Evidence from previous studies suggests associations exist between health outcomes and county-level measures of mining activity. This is the first study to examine associations between mining and birth outcomes at finer scales. Surface mines were identified using satellite images, and we identified the locations of birth records using the mother's home address. Airsheds, used to determine the influence area of airborne pollutants from surface mining activity, were created. We then used statistical models, to examine associations between airsheds and birth outcomes at four spatial scales. Results suggest MAUP has minimal impacts on the statistical results of examining associations between surface mining and birth outcomes in Central Appalachia. Results also indicate surface mining is significantly associated with preterm birth and decreased birthweight in grams at each scale.

According to American philosopher W. W. Bartley, the transition from tradi- tional Aristotelian to Boolean logic is a revolutionary milestone in the history of logic. The work of George Boole which was followed by a developement of a mathematicaly oriented logic brings a shift of paradigm. In my thesis I follow the period in which the shift is said to have happened. I explicate the elements of syllogistic and its main conceptions as expounded in a textbook The Rudiments of Logic written by Henry Aldrich. Furthermore I demon- strate logical systems of three authors: Archbishop Richard Whately, George Boole and Lewis Carroll. I accent the connection of those systems and the practical aspect of logic. With this in mind I consider Bartley's statement and estimate the role of the rules in the systems and its possible use in three domains circumscribed in Aldriches book: simple apprehension, judgement and discourse. 1

This thesis examines the response of a representative agent investor to sequences (streaks) of quarterly earnings surprises over a period of twelve quarters using the United States S&P500 constituent companies sample frame in the years 1991 to 2006. This examination follows the predictive performance of the representative agent model of Rabin (2002b) [Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117(3).p.775 816] and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) [A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics. 49. p.307 343] for an investor who might be under the influence of the law of small numbers, or another closely related cognitive bias known as the gambler s fallacy. Chapters 4 and 5 present two related empirical studies on this broad theme. In chapter 4, for successive sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes over a twelve-quarter horizon of quarterly earnings increases or falls, I ask whether the models can capture the likelihood of reversion. Secondly, I ask, what is the representative investor s response to observed sequences of quarterly earnings changes for my S&P500 constituent sample companies? I find a far greater frequency of extreme persistent quarterly earnings rises (of nine quarters and more) than falls and hence a more muted reaction to their occurrence from the market. Extreme cases of persistent quarterly earnings falls are far less common than extreme rises and are more salient in their impact on stock prices. I find evidence suggesting that information discreteness; that is the frequency with which small information about stock value filters into the market is one of the factors that foment earnings momentum in stocks. However, information discreteness does not subsume the impact of sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes, or earnings streakiness as a strong candidate that drives earnings momentum in stock returns in my S&P500 constituent stock sample. Therefore, earnings streakiness and informational discreteness appear to have separate and additive effects in driving momentum in stock price. In chapter 5, the case for the informativeness of the streaks of earnings surprises is further strengthened. This is done by examining the explanatory power of streaks of earnings surprises in a shorter horizon of three days around the period when the effect of the nature of earnings news is most intense in the stock market. Even in shorter windows, investors in S&P500 companies seem to be influenced by the lengthening of negative and positive streaks of earnings surprises over the twelve quarters of quarterly earnings announcement I study here. This further supports my thesis that investors underreact to sequences of changes in their expectations about stock returns. This impact is further strengthened by high information uncertainties in streaks of positive earnings surprise. However, earnings streakiness is one discrete and separable element in the resolution of uncertainty around equity value for S&P 500 constituent companies. Most of the proxies for earnings surprise show this behaviour especially when market capitalisation, age and cash flow act as proxies of information uncertainty. The influence of the gambler s fallacy on the representative investor in the presence of information uncertainty becomes more pronounced when I examine increasing lengths of streaks of earnings surprises. The presence of post earnings announcement drift in my large capitalised S&P500 constituents sample firms confirms earnings momentum to be a pervasive phenomenon which cuts across different tiers of the stock markets including highly liquid stocks, followed by many analysts, which most large funds would hold.

O elemento central deste estudo é o problema de predição em seqüências de variáveis aleatórias binárias (0-1). Modelos são estudados para esse tipo de situação e então relacionados com a Falácia do Apostador - um famoso caso de estudo da Psicologia (também conhecida como Lei da Maturidade). Estudos estatísticos anteriores propõem tal modelagem sob a perspectiva bayesiana. Neles, tem-se a suposição de permutabilidade infinita e, como conseqüência, a maturidade é um comportamento inadmissível. Neste estudo, um novo modelo é apresentado, no qual a crença do apostador não é necessariamente uma falácia. Este é o modelo preditivista usual de população finita e, portanto, somente quantidades com significado operacional (parâmetros operacionais) são envolvidas. Uma classe de prioris para o parâmetro operacional que resulta em modelos não estendíveis é apresentada. Trata-se de uma classe de distribuições que definimos como mais estreitas que a Binomial. Maturidade é uma conseqüência da crença em prioris dessa classe. Apresenta-se ainda uma subclasse referente às distribuições mais estreitas de segunda ordem que a Binomial. Para prioris dessa subclasse tem-se taxa de falha preditiva crescente, que pode ser interpretado como o resultado mais extremo de maturidade. Os resultados deste estudo podem contribuir para o julgamento de quão razoável é a suposição de permutabilidade infinita em relação ao típico comportamento humano. Outra principal contribuição está associada ao estudo de condições de estendibilidade em processos binários. / We study the problem of prediction in sequences of binary random variables. Models are studied for this kind of situation and then considered vis-à-vis the Gambler\'s Fallacy - a famous case study in Psychology (also known as Law of Maturity). Previous statistical studies proposed such modeling under the bayesian perspective. In them there is the assumption of exchangeability and, as a result, maturity is a inadmissible behavior. In this study, a new model in which the Gambler\'s belief need not be a fallacy is presented. This one is the usual finite population model and, therefore, only operationally meaningful quantities (operational parameters) are involved. A class of prior distributions for the operational parameter which yield non-extendable models is presented. It is a class of distributions which we defined as tighter than the Binomial. Maturity is a consequence of the belief in the prior distributions of this class. Furthermore, a subclass which refers to the distributions that are second-order tighter than the Binomial is presented. For prior distributions of this subclass the predictive failure rate is increasing, which can be interpreted as the most extreme case of maturity. The results of this study may contribute on the judgment of how reasonable the assumption of infinite exchangeability is relative to typical human perception. Another major contribution is related to the study on extendibility conditions in binary processes.