With more than 30 million people living with HIV/AIDS and about 2.5 million people infected in 2006 alone, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has become one of the highest priorities on the global development agenda. About 65% of the world population living with HIV/AIDS live in sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa also lags behind in achieving international development goals and the burden of HIV/AIDS further exacerbates the cycle of poverty and inequality. Donor aid is often given on the assumption that the recipient country has adequate capacity in the government to manage all aspects of development: planning, fiscal management, programme design, financial control and budgeting, project implementation, accountability and monitoring and evaluation. The multiplicity of funding modalities in the donor field makes the absorption and spending of aid a challenge. The national capacity influences the ability to absorb donor aid and the role of public administration in the national development programmes cannot be over-emphasised. To attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) of the Millennium Declaration of the United Nations, special attention needs to be given to HIV/AIDS. Should the AIDS pandemic not be resolved properly, almost all the MDG might be in jeopardy. The Paris Declaration on aid effectiveness, harmonisation and alignment does not make any provision for safeguarding funds for the mitigation of the impact of HIV/AIDS in recipient countries. The United Nations’ UNAIDS has made it clear that to effectively attain any development goals in the developing world, mainstreaming of HIV/AIDS in all development activities needs to be done. Conceptually, mainstreaming HIV/AIDS means to bring HIV/AIDS to the centre of the development agenda, which requires change at individual, departmental and organisational level. From this overview emerges the research question: ‘Will the changing international official development assistance environment have an influence on financing the response to HIV/AIDS in the developing countries of southern Africa?’ This is a qualitative and descriptive study, based on a literature survey utilising a deductive approach in the fields of public administration, public financial management, development, development administration, HIV/AIDS and official development assistance (ODA). A model for a sector-based approach to financing the AIDS epidemic in the country was developed. The model is based on the many different mechanisms, best practices and lessons learned of many different organisations. It suggest one overarching body with legal status that can manage a country’s HIV and AIDS programme as a cross cutting issue. The Central body will have representation of all sectors, including government, donors and multilaterals. All the role players in the field should be involved in the development, planning and implementation of the programmes. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA) / unrestricted

The South African Government’s service delivery initiatives do not guarantee quality of life for all citizens of South Africa. An active challenge faced by researchers and practitioners, who do not have adequate solutions available, is based on the fact that government departments are not able to say what they have achieved; only what they have done. The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual approach or framework for public financial performance management, which will pave the way for operational and line managers in public financial management towards world-class performance with specific reference to effectiveness and service delivery outcomes. The contextualisation of public administration highlights the scientific foundations of public administration and the continuous development of administrative theories and growing administrative thought within the discipline of Public Administration. The development of public administration proves to be dynamic with the emphasis on future trends and emerging concepts of public management and good governance and the need for more efficient and effective service delivery. The state's role has changed from hands-on management and direct delivery of goods and services to the facilitation of an enabling environment, which provides a framework for private sector participation. Successful development programmes hinge on the effective economic policies, good governance and financial performance management of the facilitator. Due to the fragmentation of policy responsibility in society, the traditional mechanisms of governmental control are no longer workable, or even appropriate. Control is giving way to interaction and involvement with critical implications for the operational manager’s ability to manage, but still to be accountable. The future role of government will be based on governance and stewardship, which can create an enabling environment for all its citizens to enjoy a good life. Derived from an analysis of the public administration environment, the magnitude of the challenges and the tasks facing African countries, African governments and other stakeholders, especially the international community, must establish capacity to deal with a dynamic and changing environment. A systematic and holistic approach will be needed for the implementation of policy in order to become more effective and responsive to the needs of society. The role of governance as the ideal platform allows for an interactive relationship between the public financial management system and the budget process to be facilitated by various role players in different relationships. Interaction is based on the concept of getting the basics right and is also aligned with the public financial management system as a series of realistic platforms to accommodate the multiple role players. The result is a financial system that provides the opportunity for financial performance management and effective and optimal budget outcomes. A high-performing public-sector organisation is results-driven with a sound public financial management system, which allows the government to make the best use of all available resources. This type of organisation will meet the quest to efficiently and effectively utilise public resources to meet the needs of the community in an equitable manner. Public financial performance management must be viewed as the next logical evolution of the field of public management. Public financial performance management must be viewed as an essential component of successful management. This is cultural, operational and human resource management change. The transition will require recognition that rationality is the underlying force of performance management. The development of public financial performance management capacity is a means and not an end in itself; it is an integral part of the overall development agenda. Consequently, a capacity development strategy must be based on a broader vision of improved financial performance management and increasing organisational effectiveness leading to good governance. While country ownership is critical, the capacity development efforts have to be tailored to match the existing human resources, institutions, legal system, as well as the administrative and political culture. The drive for capacity development should transcend the mode by which it is to be delivered. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / School of Public Management and Administration (SPMA) / unrestricted

Mathematical and statistical modeling have been at the forefront of many significant advances in many disciplines in both the academic and industry sectors. From behavioral sciences to hard core quantum mechanics in physics, mathematical modeling has made a compelling argument for its usefulness and its necessity in advancing the current state of knowledge in the 21rst century. In Finance and Insurance in particular, stochastic modeling has proven to be an effective approach in accomplishing a vast array of tasks: risk management, leveraging of investments, prediction, hedging, pricing, insurance, and so on. However, the magnitude of the damage incurred in recent market crisis of 1929 (the great depression), 1937 (recession triggered by lingering fears emanating from the great depression), 1990 (one year recession following a decade of steady expansion) and 2007 (the great recession triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis) has suggested that there are certain aspects of financial markets not accounted for in existing modeling. Explanations have abounded as to why the market underwent such deep crisis and how to account for regime change risk. One such explanation brought forth was the existence of regimes in the financial markets. The basic idea of market regimes underscored the principle that the market was intrinsically subjected to many different states and can switch from one state to another under unknown and uncertain internal and external perturbations. Implementation of such a theory has been done in the simplifying case of Markov regimes. The mathematical simplicity of the Markovian regime model allows for semi-closed or closed form solutions in most financial applications while it also allows for economically interpretable parameters. However, there is a hefty price to be paid for such practical conveniences as many assumptions made on the market behavior are quite unreasonable and restrictive. One assumes for instance that each market regime has a constant propensity of switching to any other state irrespective of the age of the current state. One also assumes that there are no intermediate states as regime changes occur in a discrete manner from one of the finite states to another. There is therefore no telling how meaningful or reliable interpretation of parameters in Markov regime models are. In this thesis, we introduced a sound theoretical and analytic framework for Levy driven linear stochastic models under a semi Markov market regime switching process and derived It\'o formula for a general linear semi Markov switching model generated by a class of Levy It'o processes (1). It'o formula results in two important byproducts, namely semi closed form formulas for the characteristic function of log prices and a linear combination of duration times (2). Unlike Markov markets, the introduction of semi Markov markets allows a time varying propensity of regime change through the conditional intensity matrix. This is more in line with the notion that the market's chances of recovery (respectively, of crisis) are affected by the recession's age (respectively, recovery's age). Such a change is consistent with the notion that for instance, the longer the market is mired into a recession, the more improbable a fast recovery as the the market is more likely to either worsens or undergo a slow recovery. Another interesting consequence of the time dependence of the conditional intensity matrix is the interpretation of semi Markov regimes as a pseudo-infinite market regimes models. Although semi Markov regime assume a finite number of states, we note that while in any give regime, the market does not stay the same but goes through an infinite number of changes through its propensity of switching to other regimes. Each of those separate intermediate states endows the market with a structure of pseudo-infinite regimes which is an answer to the long standing problem of modeling market regime with infinitely many regimes. We developed a version of Girsanov theorem specific to semi Markov regime switching stochastic models, and this is a crucial contribution in relating the risk neutral parameters to the historical parameters (3). Given that Levy driven markets and regime switching markets are incomplete, there are more than one risk neutral measures that one can use for pricing derivative contracts. Although much work has been done about optimal choice of the pricing measure, two of them jump out of the current literature: the minimal martingale measure and the minimum entropy martingale measure. We first presented a general version of Girsanov theorem explicitly accounting for semi Markov regime. Then we presented Siu and Yang pricing kernel. In addition, we developed the conditional and unconditional minimum entropy martingale measure which minimized the dissimilarity between the historical and risk neutral probability measures through a version of Kulbach Leibler distance (4). Estimation of a European option price in a semi Markov market has been attempted before in the restricted case of the Black Scholes model. The problems encountered then were twofold: First, the author employed a Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which relied much on the tractability of the likelihood function of the normal random sequences. This tractability is unavailable for most Levy processes, hence the necessity of alternative pricing methods is essential. Second, the accuracy of the parameter estimates required tens of thousands of simulations as it is often the case with Metropolis Hasting algorithms with considerable CPU time demand. Both above outlined issues are resolved by the development of a semi-closed form expression of the characteristic function of log asset prices, and it opened the door to a Fourier transform method which is derived on the heels of Carr and Madan algorithm and the Fourier time stepping algorithm (5). A round of simulations and calibrations is performed to better capture the performance of the semi Markov model as opposed to Markov regime models. We establish through simulations that semi Markov parameters and the backward recurrence time have a substantial effect on option prices ( 6). Differences between Markov and Semi Markov market calibrations are quantified and the CPU times are reported. More importantly, interpretation of risk neutral semi Markov parameters offer more insight into the dynamic of market regimes than Markov market regime models ( 7). This has been systematically exhibited in this work as calibration results obtained from a set of European vanilla call options led to estimates of the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution considered, offering a deeper view of the current market state as they determine the in-regime dynamic crucial to determining where the market is headed. After introducing semi Markov models through linear Levy driven models, we consider semi Markov markets with nonlinear multidimensional coupled asset price processes (8). We establish that the tractability of linear semi Markov market models carries over to multidimensional nonlinear asset price models. Estimating equations and pricing formula are derived for historical parameters and risk neutral parameters respectively (9). The particular case of basket of commodities is explored and we provide calibration formula of the model parameters to observed historical commodity prices through the LLGMM method. We also study the case of Heston model in a semi Markov switching market where only one parameter is subjected to semi Markov regime changes. Heston model is one the most popular model in option pricing as it reproduces many more stylized facts than Black Scholes model while retaining tractability. However, in addition to having a faster deceasing smiles than observed, one of the most damning shortcomings of most diffusion models such as Heston model, is their inability to accurately reproduce short term options prices. An avenue for solving these issues consists in generalizing Heston to account for semi Markov market regimes. Such a solution is implemented and a semi analytic formula for options is obtained.

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

The South African Schools Act (No. 84 of 1996) mandates the government to make financial allocations to needy schools. Section 21 of the Act read together with the National Norms and Standards for School Funding, stipulates that schools falling into certain categories (quintiles) receive given amount of funds per each and every learner. The funds are meant to help promote the equal and unparalleled access to education for all citizens as set-out in Section 29 of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (1996). The study focused on investigating the manner in which two selected Section 21 primary schools are managing their allocated funds. The empirical study made use of a qualitative paradigm through which data was collected using interviews and focus group discussions to collect data from a sample comprising of thirty-five respondents. In terms of data analysis, the study used a qualitative analysis approach to interpret data into readable information for the various categories of audiences in the study. The findings of the study were, inter alia, that financial management skills are low in the schools, the amounts appropriated to schools needs to be revised upwards because schools need more funding for renovations and property development in schools, sanctions for those guilty of school financial misconduct are too soft and auditing of financial record is not being constantly done. The study recommends that the following be considered in order to help improve school financial management; the training of financial officers in school on how to best manage funds, imposition of stiffer penalties for offenders of financial misconduct and increase in allocation aimed at school property development.

This paper formally analyzes the role of e-commerce revenue in explaining the changes in industrial rents in the 206 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas. To analyze this connection, I match commercial real estate data from CoStar, market data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and an estimation of MSA level e-commerce. The results from the generalized least squares model indicate that e-commerce revenue positively affects asking rent and rent growth. This suggests that new fulfillment practices from e-commerce companies are disrupting metropolitan area industrial markets.

This paper uses an event study in combination with Granger causality tests to analyze the effects of capital control liberalizations in China. The AH Premium between the Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges in addition to the total returns of the Shanghai Composite are all used to measure the effect of each event. The results are most significant in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong AH premium, but the overall market reaction to each liberalization event was minimal. The Granger causality tests studied relationships between the Shanghai Composite, the S&P 500, the FTSE 100, the Hang Seng, and the All-Ordinaries Index. Results showed the strongest Granger causal relationships between Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Australia. Overall, the Granger causality results are inconsistent with the theory that increased currency liberalization in China causes increased integration with other major global markets.

Theoretical part of this diploma thesis is devoted to the reform of public administration, to region as an autonomous unit, its competences, authorities but also to the process of ekonomy and the universal analysis of regional revenues and expenditures. I deal with the region Vysočina in the practical part, I define revenues and expenditures in particular years and then I practise their comparison and analysis, where I try tu find out what impact the changes in budgetary allocation of taxes had got on the whole devolopment of revenues in the region Vysočina. The final part of thesis focuses on results of financial management in period 2001 -- 2007 a I try to outline the future prediction of development of the financial management in the region Vysočina.

The thesis is based on describing bussiness proces in a real small enterprise - Helena Škodáková, a seller of home textile - and bringing in suggestions how to improve its efficiency. The prosperity factor analysis consists of management, marketing, financial management and human resources management.

This master thesis is focused on financial management of commercial innovative project in Plzensky Prazdroj, a.s. Introduction of the thesis is dedicated to the theoretical and methodological background of project management. The company, its general and financial management are presented in following parts. The authoress of the thesis presents project management and related processes using real business case and compares theoretical and methodological background with company's approach. Conclusion of the thesis focus on proposal of processes related to the implementation of new innovative products to standard portfolio in perspective of financial management and financial tools.