É consensual que questões políticas acarretam impactos econômicos significativos, entretanto, saber a direção e magnitude destes não é trivial. A contribuição desta dissertação ao assunto se divide em duas frentes: verificação da existência de ciclo político-orçamentário na execução de investimentos públicos; e estimação de relações macroeconômicas ao longo do ciclo político. Para o primeiro ponto, utilizou-se um modelo estrutural para a série mensal de investimento das Administrações Públicas (níveis federal, estadual e municipal), encontrando ciclos de curto e médio prazo, com duração de, aproximadamente, 2 e 4 anos, respectivamente. Ademais, os ciclos coincidem com o calendário eleitoral, sendo que suas fases de expansão se encontram no período pré-eleitoral e as de contração, sempre em anos ímpares. Para o segundo ponto, um VAR linear e outro com mudança de regime foram estimados, incorporando neste as informações obtidas pelo Modelo Estrutural. Os resultados do modelo linear indicam que investimento público causa crowding-out sobre investimento privado e que tanto investimento público quanto privado exercem efeito positivo sobre o PIB, a magnitude do segundo, entretanto, é consideravelmente superior à do primeiro. O modelo não-linear evidencia que os multiplicadores fiscais são distintos para os períodos pré e pós-eleitoral, salientando que o ajuste fiscal não implica redução da atividade econômica, e sim o contrário. O impacto dos investimentos privados sobre o crescimento, por sua vez, é sempre alto, positivo e independente de ciclo político. / There is consensus that political issues carry significant economic impact, however, it\'s not trivial to determine the direction and magnitude of these ones. The contribution of this thesis to the subject is divided into two fronts: the determination of political budget cycle in the execution of public investments; and estimation of macroeconomic relationships over the political cycle. For the first point, we used a structural model for the general government (federal, state and municipal levels) monthly series of investment, finding short and medium term cycles, with duration of, approximately, 2 and 4 years, respectively. Furthermore, the cycles coincide with the electoral calendar, since phases of expansion are in the pre-election period and the contraction ones, always in odd years. For the second point, a linear and a regime switching VAR were estimated, incorporating in the latter information obtained by the Structural Model. The results of the linear model indicate that public investment causes crowding-out in private investment and that public and private investment has a positive effect on the GDP, the magnitude of the second, however, is considerably higher than the first. The nonlinear model shows that fiscal multipliers are distinct for the pre and post-election period, stressing that the fiscal adjustment does not imply reduction of the economic activity, but otherwise. On the other hand, the impact of private investment on economic growth is always high, positive and independent of the political cycle.

Este trabalho focaliza o esforço brasileiro pela criação de um modelo de gestão fiscal responsável. Materializado na Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal – LRF –, o novo modelo fiscal do país é avaliado por vários ângulos. Acerca da cronologia, a iniciativa brasileira é analisada através do delineamento das etapas que precederam a aprovação da lei fiscal, tais como o estágio de pré-projeto, a consulta pública, a fase de projeto-de-lei, até o desembocar em Lei Complementar, aqui tratada por LRF. Na seqüência do trabalho, o texto é esmiuçado para facilitar sua compreensão, da mesma forma que revela a notável amplitude de seu escopo. Regras orçamentárias, problemas e alternativas na sua adoção, são questões fiscais abordadas à luz da experiência internacional e cotejadas com o caso brasileiro. As experiências que inspiraram ou serviram como lição ao caso brasileiro, em especial àquelas em sistemas federativos, servem de contraste para destacar as escolhas consignadas nessa moderna Lei. Por fim, outras leis fiscais recentes se entrelaçam para moldar um panorama bastante representativo do cenário internacional em matéria de modelos fiscais. Neste sentido, o trabalho aponta que a LRF teve inspirações vigorosas nas experiências dos Estados Unidos, da União Monetária Européia e da Nova Zelândia, mas procura esclarecer que a lei fiscal brasileira é uma construção particular e autêntica, com vistas a combater às fragilidades de uma nação única, chamada Brasil.

The active use of macroeconomic policies to smooth economic fluctuations and, as a consequence, the stance that policymakers should adopt over the business cycle, remain controversial issues in the economic literature. In the light of the dramatic experience of the early 1930s’ Great Depression, Keynes (1936) argued that the market mechanism could not be relied upon to spontaneously recover from a slump, and advocated counter-cyclical public spending and monetary policy to stimulate demand. Albeit the Keynesian doctrine had largely influenced policymaking during the two decades following World War II, it began to be seriously challenged in several directions since the start of the 1970s. The introduction of rational expectations within macroeconomic models implied that aggregate demand management could not stabilize the economy’s responses to shocks (see in particular Sargent and Wallace (1975)). According to this view, in fact, rational agents foresee the effects of the implemented policies, and wage and price expectations are revised upwards accordingly. Therefore, real wages and money balances remain constant and so does output. Within such a conceptual framework, only unexpected policy interventions would have some short-run effects upon the economy. The "real business cycle (RBC) theory", pioneered by Kydland and Prescott (1982), offered an alternative explanation on the nature of fluctuations in economic activity, viewed as reflecting the efficient responses of optimizing agents to exogenous sources of fluctuations, outside the direct control of policymakers. The normative implication was that there should be no role for economic policy activism: fiscal and monetary policy should be acyclical. The latest generation of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models builds on rigorous foundations in intertemporal optimizing behavior by consumers and firms inherited from the RBC literature, but incorporates some frictions in the adjustment of nominal and real quantities in response to macroeconomic shocks (see Woodford (2003)). In such a framework, not only policy "surprises" may have an impact on the economic activity, but also the way policymakers "systematically" respond to exogenous sources of fluctuation plays a fundamental role in affecting the economic activity, thereby rekindling interest in the use of counter-cyclical stabilization policies to fine tune the business cycle. Yet, despite impressive advances in the economic theory and econometric techniques, there are no definitive answers on the systematic stance policymakers should follow, and on the effects of macroeconomic policies upon the economy. Against this background, the present thesis attempts to inspect the interrelations between macroeconomic policies and the economic activity from novel angles. Three contributions are proposed. In the first Chapter, I show that relying on the information actually available to policymakers when budgetary decisions are taken is of fundamental importance for the assessment of the cyclical stance of governments. In the second, I explore whether the effectiveness of fiscal shocks in spurring the economic activity has declined since the beginning of the 1970s. In the third, the impact of systematic monetary policies over U.S. industrial sectors is investigated. In the existing literature, empirical assessments of the historical stance of policymakers over the economic cycle have been mainly drawn from the estimation of "reduced-form" policy reaction functions (see in particular Taylor (1993) and Galì and Perotti (2003)). Such rules typically relate a policy instrument (a reference short-term interest rate or an indicator of discretionary fiscal policy) to a set of explanatory variables (notably inflation, the output gap and the debt-GDP ratio, as long as fiscal policy is concerned). Although these policy rules can be seen as simple approximations of what derived from an explicit optimization problem solved by social planners (see Kollmann (2007)), they received considerable attention since they proved to track the behavior of central banks and fiscal policymakers relatively well. Typically, revised data, i.e. observations available to the econometrician when the study is carried out, are used in the estimation of such policy reaction functions. However, data available in "real-time" to policymakers may end up to be remarkably different from what it is observed ex-post. Orphanides (2001), in an innovative and thought-provoking paper on the U.S. monetary policy, challenged the way policy evaluation was conducted that far by showing that unrealistic assumptions about the timeliness of data availability may yield misleading descriptions of historical policy. In the spirit of Orphanides (2001), in the first Chapter of this thesis I reconsider how the intentional cyclical stance of fiscal authorities should be assessed. Importantly, in the framework of fiscal policy rules, not only variables such as potential output and the output gap are subject to measurement errors, but also the main discretionary "operating instrument" in the hands of governments: the structural budget balance, i.e. the headline government balance net of the effects due to automatic stabilizers. In fact, the actual realization of planned fiscal measures may depend on several factors (such as the growth rate of GDP, the implementation lags that often follow the adoption of many policy measures, and others more) outside the direct and full control of fiscal authorities. Hence, there might be sizeable differences between discretionary fiscal measures as planned in the past and what it is observed ex-post. To be noted, this does not apply to monetary policy since central bankers can control their operating interest rates with great accuracy. When the historical behavior of fiscal authorities is analyzed from a real-time perspective, it emerges that the intentional stance has been counter-cyclical, especially during expansions, in the main OECD countries throughout the last thirteen years. This is at odds with findings based on revised data, generally pointing to pro-cyclicality (see for example Gavin and Perotti (1997)). It is shown that empirical correlations among revision errors and other second-order moments allow to predict the size and the sign of the bias incurred in estimating the intentional stance of the policy when revised data are (mistakenly) used. It addition, formal tests, based on a refinement of Hansen (1999), do not reject the hypothesis that the intentional reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle is characterized by two regimes: one counter-cyclical, when output is above its potential level, and the other acyclical, in the opposite case. On the contrary, the use of revised data does not allow to identify any threshold effect. The second and third Chapters of this thesis are devoted to the exploration of the impact of fiscal and monetary policies upon the economy. Over the last years, two approaches have been mainly followed by practitioners for the estimation of the effects of macroeconomic policies on the real activity. On the one hand, calibrated and estimated DSGE models allow to trace out the economy’s responses to policy disturbances within an analytical framework derived from solid microeconomic foundations. On the other, vector autoregressive (VAR) models continue to be largely used since they have proved to fit macro data particularly well, albeit they cannot fully serve to inspect structural interrelations among economic variables. Yet, the typical DSGE and VAR models are designed to handle a limited number of variables and are not suitable to address economic questions potentially involving a large amount of information. In a DSGE framework, in fact, identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanism under a plausible set of theoretical restrictions becomes a thorny issue when many variables are considered. As for VARs, estimation problems may arise when models are specified in a large number of indicators (although latest contributions suggest that large-scale Bayesian VARs perform surprisingly well in forecasting. See in particular Banbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2007)). As a consequence, the growing popularity of factor models as effective econometric tools allowing to summarize in a parsimonious and flexible manner large amounts of information may be explained not only by their usefulness in deriving business cycle indicators and forecasting (see for example Reichlin (2002) and D’Agostino and Giannone (2006)), but also, due to recent developments, by their ability in evaluating the response of economic systems to identified structural shocks (see Giannone, Reichlin and Sala (2002) and Forni, Giannone, Lippi and Reichlin (2007)). Parallelly, some attempts have been made to combine the rigor of DSGE models and the tractability of VAR ones, with the advantages of factor analysis (see Boivin and Giannoni (2006) and Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005)). The second Chapter of this thesis, based on a joint work with Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, presents an original study combining factor and VAR analysis in an encompassing framework, to investigate how "unexpected" and "unsystematic" variations in taxes and government spending feed through the economy in the home country and abroad. The domestic impact of fiscal shocks in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. and cross-border fiscal spillovers from Germany to seven European economies is analyzed. In addition, the time evolution of domestic and cross-border tax and spending multipliers is explored. In fact, the way fiscal policy impacts on domestic and foreign economies depends on several factors, possibly changing over time. In particular, the presence of excess capacity, accommodating monetary policy, distortionary taxation and liquidity constrained consumers, plays a prominent role in affecting how fiscal policies stimulate the economic activity in the home country. The impact on foreign output crucially depends on the importance of trade links, on real exchange rates and, in a monetary union, on the sensitiveness of foreign economies to the common interest rate. It is well documented that the last thirty years have witnessed frequent changes in the economic environment. For instance, in most OECD countries, the monetary policy stance became less accommodating in the 1980s compared to the 1970s, and more accommodating again in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Moreover, financial markets have been heavily deregulated. Hence, fiscal policy might have lost (or gained) power as a stimulating tool in the hands of policymakers. Importantly, the issue of cross-border transmission of fiscal policy decisions is of the utmost relevance in the framework of the European Monetary Union and this explains why the debate on fiscal policy coordination has received so much attention since the adoption of the single currency (see Ahearne, Sapir and Véron (2006) and European Commission (2006)). It is found that over the period 1971 to 2004 tax shocks have generally been more effective in spurring domestic output than government spending shocks. Interestingly, the inclusion of common factors representing global economic phenomena yields to smaller multipliers reconciling, at least for the U.K., the evidence from large-scale macroeconomic models, generally finding feeble multipliers (see e.g. European Commission’s QUEST model), with the one from a prototypical structural VAR pointing to stronger effects of fiscal policy. When the estimation is performed recursively over samples of seventeen years of data, it emerges that GDP multipliers have dropped drastically from early 1990s on, especially in Germany (tax shocks) and in the U.S. (both tax and government spending shocks). Moreover, the conduct of fiscal policy seems to have become less erratic, as documented by a lower variance of fiscal shocks over time, and this might contribute to explain why business cycles have shown less volatility in the countries under examination. Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany do not generally have beggar-thy-neighbor effects on other European countries. In particular, our results suggest that tax multipliers have been positive but vanishing for neighboring countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria), weak and mostly not significant for more remote ones (the U.K. and Spain). Cross-border government spending multipliers are found to be monotonically weak for all the subsamples considered. Overall these findings suggest that fiscal "surprises", in the form of unexpected reductions in taxation and expansions in government consumption and investment, have become progressively less successful in stimulating the economic activity at the domestic level, indicating that, in the framework of the European Monetary Union, policymakers can only marginally rely on this discretionary instrument as a substitute for national monetary policies. The objective of the third chapter is to inspect the role of monetary policy in the U.S. business cycle. In particular, the effects of "systematic" monetary policies upon several industrial sectors is investigated. The focus is on the systematic, or endogenous, component of monetary policy (i.e. the one which is related to the economic activity in a stable and predictable way), for three main reasons. First, endogenous monetary policies are likely to have sizeable real effects, if agents’ expectations are not perfectly rational and if there are some nominal and real frictions in a market. Second, as widely documented, the variability of the monetary instrument and of the main macro variables is only marginally explained by monetary "shocks", defined as unexpected and exogenous variations in monetary conditions. Third, monetary shocks can be simply interpreted as measurement errors (see Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1998)). Hence, the systematic component of monetary policy is likely to have played a fundamental role in affecting business cycle fluctuations. The strategy to isolate the impact of systematic policies relies on a counterfactual experiment, within a (calibrated or estimated) macroeconomic model. As a first step, a macroeconomic shock to which monetary policy is likely to respond should be selected, and its effects upon the economy simulated. Then, the impact of such shock should be evaluated under a “policy-inactive” scenario, assuming that the central bank does not respond to it. Finally, by comparing the responses of the variables of interest under these two scenarios, some evidence on the sensitivity of the economic system to the endogenous component of the policy can be drawn (see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997)). Such kind of exercise is first proposed within a stylized DSGE model, where the analytical solution of the model can be derived. However, as argued, large-scale multi-sector DSGE models can be solved only numerically, thus implying that the proposed experiment cannot be carried out. Moreover, the estimation of DSGE models becomes a thorny issue when many variables are incorporated (see Canova and Sala (2007)). For these arguments, a less “structural”, but more tractable, approach is followed, where a minimal amount of identifying restrictions is imposed. In particular, a factor model econometric approach is adopted (see in particular Giannone, Reichlin and Sala (2002) and Forni, Giannone, Lippi and Reichlin (2007)). In this framework, I develop a technique to perform the counterfactual experiment needed to assess the impact of systematic monetary policies. It is found that 2 and 3-digit SIC U.S. industries are characterized by very heterogeneous degrees of sensitivity to the endogenous component of the policy. Notably, the industries showing the strongest sensitivities are the ones producing durable goods and metallic materials. Non-durable good producers, food, textile and lumber producing industries are the least affected. In addition, it is highlighted that industrial sectors adjusting prices relatively infrequently are the most "vulnerable" ones. In fact, firms in this group are likely to increase quantities, rather than prices, following a shock positively hitting the economy. Finally, it emerges that sectors characterized by a higher recourse to external sources to finance investments, and sectors investing relatively more in new plants and machineries, are the most affected by endogenous monetary actions.

The paper tries to shed some light on the problems of centralization and decentralization within an economic union and the federal member states. Integration and decentralization are not opposite policy strategies but both meaningful if the single public goods and services supplies are analyzed in more detail. Both strategies doubtlessly have advantages, which can be realized if the manifold possibilities are combined in an efficient approach of good governance. Best practice approaches in inter- or supra-national integration, fiscal federalism and taxation do exist and have to be successfully implemented. Obviously such a modern fiscal policy has to be accompanied by an appropriate monetary policy, which in an economic union has to be carried out by an independent central bank as one of the necessary countervailing powers in a democratic setting. A modern fiscal policy strategy efficiently controls budget deficits, which naturally have to be limited to finance reliable public investments. Such strategy has to be safeguarded through modern methods of budgeting and fiscal planning. Modern public management with a clear code of conduct for the government officials ensures corruption free administration.

Este trabalho focaliza o esforço brasileiro pela criação de um modelo de gestão fiscal responsável. Materializado na Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal – LRF –, o novo modelo fiscal do país é avaliado por vários ângulos. Acerca da cronologia, a iniciativa brasileira é analisada através do delineamento das etapas que precederam a aprovação da lei fiscal, tais como o estágio de pré-projeto, a consulta pública, a fase de projeto-de-lei, até o desembocar em Lei Complementar, aqui tratada por LRF. Na seqüência do trabalho, o texto é esmiuçado para facilitar sua compreensão, da mesma forma que revela a notável amplitude de seu escopo. Regras orçamentárias, problemas e alternativas na sua adoção, são questões fiscais abordadas à luz da experiência internacional e cotejadas com o caso brasileiro. As experiências que inspiraram ou serviram como lição ao caso brasileiro, em especial àquelas em sistemas federativos, servem de contraste para destacar as escolhas consignadas nessa moderna Lei. Por fim, outras leis fiscais recentes se entrelaçam para moldar um panorama bastante representativo do cenário internacional em matéria de modelos fiscais. Neste sentido, o trabalho aponta que a LRF teve inspirações vigorosas nas experiências dos Estados Unidos, da União Monetária Européia e da Nova Zelândia, mas procura esclarecer que a lei fiscal brasileira é uma construção particular e autêntica, com vistas a combater às fragilidades de uma nação única, chamada Brasil.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:58:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 2006UlyssesdeMoraes04072008.pdf.jpg: 19756 bytes, checksum: 612d981a7780180d09edb78f561e0885 (MD5) 2006UlyssesdeMoraes04072008.pdf.txt: 212002 bytes, checksum: 87ea87c0aef6fb6605f35bcd9a3522c1 (MD5) 2006UlyssesdeMoraes04072008.pdf: 816508 bytes, checksum: b95a4557241c1014fdd544c006efc0bd (MD5) 1_63070100011.pdf: 754542 bytes, checksum: bd4e37589ae9888f59951037946618fc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-07-04T00:00:00Z / The purpose of this dissertation is to deepen the study on the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal adjustments by analyzing the trajectory of the Brazilian fiscal policy during the years of 1997 and 2007, period that includes the major fiscal adjustments in Brazil. We use a more precise indicator of the fiscal stance of the government, whose objective is to measure the discretional attitude of the government, called of 'fiscal impulse'. The analysis of the Brazilian case suggests some peculiar characteristics of the fiscal adjustment since 1998. The period between 1997 and 2007 was characterized by the rise of governmental revenues above of the growth of its expenditures. In the episodes of sound fiscal adjustment, an increase of revenues in superior magnitude to the reduction of the expenditures is verified. In such a way, the composition of the fiscal adjustment evidences that the reduction of expenditures was concentrated mainly in high discretional and soft expenditures, and that they include expenditures with investment of the government. The composition of the fiscal adjustment does not have a permanent effect, conclusion strengthened by the trajectory of the expenditures in the period that follow the fiscal adjustments, returning to its previous levels on average two years after the adjustments. However, the maintenance of the primary surplus in the whole period allowed the permanent reduction in the debt/GDP ratio. Therefore, the characteristics of the Brazilian fiscal adjustment between 1999 and 2007 can be considered contradictory. In the perspective of the profile and the composition of the fiscal adjustment, the results clearly do not indicate 'an expectacional effect' in the behavior of the economic agents, because these had not incorporated such adjustments as a permanent reduction in the level of the governmental expenses, which could anticipate the future reduction in the level of the governmental taxation. / O objetivo desta dissertação é aprofundar o estudo sobre os efeitos macroeconômicos dos ajustes fiscais analisando a trajetória da política fiscal brasileira entre os anos de 1997 e 2007, período que compreende a realização de um expressivo ajuste fiscal. Utilizam-se indicadores mais precisos da postura fiscal do governo, cujo objetivo é mensurar a atitude discricionária da autoridade fiscal, denominado de 'impulso fiscal'. Com base neste indicador e nos conceitos desenvolvidos, a análise do caso brasileiro sugere algumas características do ajuste fiscal realizado a partir de 1998. O período entre 1997 e 2007 foi caracterizado pela elevação das receitas governamentais acima do crescimento de suas despesas. Nos episódios de forte ajuste fiscal, verifica-se um aumento das receitas em magnitude superior à redução das despesas. Desta forma, a composição do ajuste fiscal evidencia que o corte de despesas concentrou-se majoritariamente nas despesas menos rígidas e de elevado caráter discricionário, e que incluem despesas com investimento do governo. A composição do ajuste fiscal realizado não tem caráter permanente, conclusão reforçada pela trajetória das despesas do governo nos períodos que seguem à realização dos ajustes fiscais, pois estas retornam aos seus níveis prévios em média dois anos depois dos ajustes. No entanto, a manutenção da política de realização de superávits primários, em todo o período, permitiu a redução permanente na relação dívida/PIB. Portanto, as características do ajuste fiscal brasileiro entre 1999 e 2007 são contraditórias. No que se refere ao perfil e à composição do ajuste, os resultados não indicam um claro efeito 'expectacional' no comportamento dos agentes econômicos, pois estes não incorporaram os ajustes fiscais como uma redução permanente no nível dos gastos governamentais, de forma a antecipar uma futura redução no nível da tributação governamental.

SILVA, Clarissa Moreira Conceição. Ensaios sobre capacidade fiscal e endividamento municipal. 2016. 70 f.: Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Ceará, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Departamento de Economia Agrícola, Mestrado Acadêmico em Economia Rural, Fortaleza-CE, 2016 / Submitted by Francisco Helder Macêdo Rangel (fhelder@ufc.br) on 2016-05-31T14:35:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2016_dis_cmcdantas.pdf: 1240008 bytes, checksum: 343b6e2a51eafd7c8e70f857a640889e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Margareth Mesquita (margaret@ufc.br) on 2016-06-02T15:32:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2016_dis_cmcdantas.pdf: 1240008 bytes, checksum: 343b6e2a51eafd7c8e70f857a640889e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T15:32:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2016_dis_cmcdantas.pdf: 1240008 bytes, checksum: 343b6e2a51eafd7c8e70f857a640889e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 / This work includes two papers of mine, which are outlined in the manner of separate chapters and which are supported by distinct methodologies as well, on quantifying fiscal competence and tax effort due the municipalities from northeastern Brazil during 2001 to 2012 and on their public debts. They might reveal something about my motivations: following Battese and Coelli (1995) the first sketches the fundamentals concern fiscal competence attached to the intended municipalities and it makes use of economic modeling called Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). Hence, working in plain vanilla SFA we show that all the variables we are considering, that is, population, reporting service, workers officially engaged in companies and valued over services stand in a positive relation to the tax revenues. Regrettably, the results also show that the municipality investments and inflation for each year have reduced the inefficiency concerning tax revenue which is due probably to the well-known Tanzi backwards effect. In addition, near to the tax revenue frontier the tax effort of the mean value of municipalities in northeastern Brazil is 0.83. By means of Panel data and with the aim of explaining the precise measure of public debt produced by municipalities whose population is up to 100 thousand we proceed the second article, which uses basically the same insights from the first one. Once we know that all the variables we are considering had a positive striking on the debt, all the other results were expected, including the negative impact on the GDP. However, what is actually surprising has to do with the formation of the mayor, we thought this would have promptly negative impact on the debt, but the results were otherwise. / Esta dissertação é composta por dois artigos, que estão dispostos em capítulos, nos quais foram utilizados metodologias e bancos de dados diferentes. No primeiro capítulo, intitulado “Mensuração da Capacidade e Esforço Fiscal dos Municípios do Nordeste Brasileiro: uma Análise de Fronteira Estocástica”, a partir de dados anuais, no período de 2001 a 2012, tem como objetivo mensurar a capacidade e esforço fiscal municipal, por meio da metodologia de Fronteira Estocástica, modelo de Battese e Coelli (1995). A partir dos resultados encontrados, tem-se que todas as variáveis selecionadas – população, estabelecimentos de serviços declarantes, número de trabalhadores com vínculo empregatício em empresas de serviços e o valor adicionado de serviços - tiveram impactos positivos sobre a arrecadação fiscal.Por sua vez, os investimentos públicos municipais e a inflação anual reduziram a ineficiência da arrecadação tributária. Este resultado,relativamente à inflação, configura o efeito parecido com o denominado Tanzi às Avessas, uma vez que ocorreu crescimento da inflação e da arrecadação tributária concomitantemente.Com relação ao esforço fiscal, o valor médio dos Municípios do Nordeste brasileiro, para o período de estudo, é de 0,83, indicando que estes, possivelmente, encontram-se próximos da Fronteira de arrecadação tributária. No segundo capítulo, intitulado “Endividamento Público: Uma Análise Empírica dos Municípios de Médio e Grande Porte do Brasil”, a partir de dados anuais, no período de 2006 a 2012, tem como objetivo mensurar o nível de endividamento dos Municípios com população a cima de 100 mil habitantes, a partir do modelo de Painel. Seus resultados mostram que as variáveis grau de dependência das transferências, gastos com pessoal, dummy referente ao limite de endividamento e a escolaridade do prefeito, obtiveram impactos positivos com relação ao endividamento. A variável PIB per capta obteve resultado negativo sobre a mesma, sendo todos os resultados esperados, exceto para a escolaridade do prefeito, onde esperava-se que obtivesse um impacto negativo sobre o nível de endividamento, de acordo com os anos de estudos.

O objetivo do presente trabalho consiste na análise crítica dos efeitos da política criminal fiscal brasileira sobre a proteção do bem jurídico protegido pelo Direito Penal Tributário, investigando se instrumentos de política criminal fiscal auxiliam na proteção do bem jurídico tutelado pelo Direito Penal Tributário. Para tanto, primeiramente, será analisada a criminalidade econômica, bem como os institutos básicos dos delitos tributários. Posteriormente, estudar-se-á o bem jurídico tutelado pelos delitos fiscais e de que forma os instrumentos de política criminal fiscal tem influenciado em sua proteção. O presente estudo é dividido em quatro capítulos. Os dois primeiros dedicados ao enquadramento metodológico do tema, sendo que nos três primeiros optou-se por pesquisar a visão de doutrinadores europeus, sobretudo espanhóis e portugueses, pelo fato de o Direito Penal Econômico apresentar destacado desenvolvimento naqueles países. Já no último capítulo, preferiu-se dar destaque à doutrina e jurisprudência locais, em função de os instrumentos de política criminal-fiscal estudados influenciar a realidade brasileira e não estrangeira. No primeiro capítulo será estudado o Direito Penal Econômico, ramo do Direito Penal que se ocupa da criminalidade econômica, apresentando as diversas teorias a respeito da conceituação dos delitos econômicos. Os delitos econômicos serão, ainda, contextualizados com o fenômeno da expansão/modernização do Direito Penal, apurando-se os efeitos desta espécie de criminalidade dentro de uma sociedade de risco, com todos os novos bens jurídicos dela característicos e passíveis de tutela por meio do Direito Penal. No segundo, analisado os contornos básicos do Direito Penal Tributário, diferenciando-o do Direito Tributário Penal e trazendo as diversas conceituações e classificações dos crimes tributários dentro do ordenamento jurídico brasileiro. Em seguida, buscar-se-á responder à questão de pertencerem, ou não, os crimes tributários à seara do Direito Penal Econômico, na qualidade de delitos econômicos. Mais à frente, no terceiro capítulo, será investigado o bem jurídico penal protegido pelo Direito Penal Tributário e sua relação com os direitos humanos fundamentais e ao custeio das políticas sociais que o Brasil, como Estado Social e Democrático de Direito, se propôs a desenvolver. No capítulo quatro, finalmente, serão estudados os instrumentos de política criminal-fiscal utilizados no Direito Brasileiro (extinção da punibilidade pelo pagamento do tributo sonegado, critérios de aferição dos crimes fiscais de bagatela, natureza jurídica do encerramento do procedimento administrativo fiscal e a não escolha da sonegação fiscal como antecedente da lavagem de dinheiro) e os efeitos que engendram na proteção do bem jurídico penal tutelado pelo Direito Penal Tributário, para, então, concluir o trabalho. / El objetivo de este trabajo es el análisis crítico de los efectos de la política fiscal en Brasil a respecto de la protección del bien jurídico protegido por el Derecho Penal Tributario, investigando si los instrumentos de política criminal fiscal ayudam em su tutela. Para ello, primero vamos analizar los efectos de la delincuencia económica, así como las instituciones básicas de delitos fiscales. Este estudio se divide en cuatro capítulos. Los dos primeros dedicados al marco metodológico del tema, y los tres primeros la visión de los eruditos europeos, especialmente españoles y portugueses, porque el desarrollo del Derecho Penal Económico en esos países han puesto de manifiesto. En el último capítulo, se ha preferido dar prominencia a la doctrina y la jurisprudencia brasileñas. En el primer capítulo se estudiará el Derecho Penal Económico, disciplina que se ocupa de los delitos económicos, presentando las diferentes teorías acerca de la conceptualización de los delitos económicos. Los delitos económicos son también contextualizada con el fenómeno de la expansión / modernización del Derecho Penal, que investigan los efectos de este tipo de delito, en una sociedad de riesgo, con todas los nuevos bienes juridicos característicos. En el segundo capítulo, los contornos básicos de el Derecho Penal Tributario y los conceptosa respecto de los delitos fiscales en el ordenamiento jurídico brasileño. A continuación, se tratará de responder a la pregunta de pertenencia o no los delitos fiscales al Derecho Penal Económico. En el tercer capítulo, serán investigados el bien jurídico penal tributario y su relación con los derechos humanos fundamentales. En el capítulo cuatro, por último, se estudiarán los instrumentos de politica criminal fiscal y los efectos que generan en la protección de los bienes jurídicos tutelados por el derecho penal fiscal penal.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A pesquisa se debruça sobre o inteiro teor de acórdão do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) proferido por maioria, em plenário, no julgamento dos embargos de declaração que foram interpostos na ação penal 516/DF (AP 516 ED/DF). Faz-se o seguinte questionamento: quais os argumentos dos Ministros do STF sobre a existência ou não de marco temporal para que o pagamento integral do débito tributário possa vir a extinguir a punibilidade dos crimes fiscais? Por meio da metodologia de estudo de caso do acórdão em questão, AP 516 ED/DF, bem como da análise de conteúdo especificamente sobre a extinção da punibilidade pelo pagamento integral do débito tributário, busca-se identificar as contribuições do caso em tela para compreensão da necessidade ou não de existência do Direito Penal Tributário. Como resultados obtidos, identifica-se que há um argumento que prevalece nos votos dos Ministros do STF, qual seja, a existência de uma política criminal vinculada a instrumentos de arrecadação fiscal. Esse argumento motiva a aplicação do mecanismo despenalizador da extinção da punibilidade dos crimes fiscais pelo pagamento do débito a qualquer tempo, como entende atualmente o STF, e isso significa a instrumentalização do Direito Penal como meio de coerção para cobrança de dívidas tributárias, o que torna questionável a própria criminalização das relações jurídico tributárias. / This research addresses the final decision delivered by the majority of the judges of the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court (STF) in criminal action AP 516 ED/DF. The research question is: what were the judges arguments on the existence or not of a time frame for the full payment of tax debt in order to extinguish criminal liability of tax crimes? AP 516 ED/DF was analyzed following case study method. By examining the arguments on the extinction of criminal liability by the full payment of the tax debt, the research seeks to identify the contributions of this case in order to understand the need or not for the existence of criminal tax law. The results indicate a prevailing argument in the judges votes, which is the existence of a criminal policy linked to tax collection instruments. This argument drives the application of this de-penalization mechanism to extinguish tax crime liability through the payment of the debt at any time, as it is currently the opinion of the Supreme Court. This represents the instrumentalization of criminal law as a means of coercion to collect tax, and makes questionable the criminalization of tax offenses.

Este trabalho focaliza o esforço brasileiro pela criação de um modelo de gestão fiscal responsável. Materializado na Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal – LRF –, o novo modelo fiscal do país é avaliado por vários ângulos. Acerca da cronologia, a iniciativa brasileira é analisada através do delineamento das etapas que precederam a aprovação da lei fiscal, tais como o estágio de pré-projeto, a consulta pública, a fase de projeto-de-lei, até o desembocar em Lei Complementar, aqui tratada por LRF. Na seqüência do trabalho, o texto é esmiuçado para facilitar sua compreensão, da mesma forma que revela a notável amplitude de seu escopo. Regras orçamentárias, problemas e alternativas na sua adoção, são questões fiscais abordadas à luz da experiência internacional e cotejadas com o caso brasileiro. As experiências que inspiraram ou serviram como lição ao caso brasileiro, em especial àquelas em sistemas federativos, servem de contraste para destacar as escolhas consignadas nessa moderna Lei. Por fim, outras leis fiscais recentes se entrelaçam para moldar um panorama bastante representativo do cenário internacional em matéria de modelos fiscais. Neste sentido, o trabalho aponta que a LRF teve inspirações vigorosas nas experiências dos Estados Unidos, da União Monetária Européia e da Nova Zelândia, mas procura esclarecer que a lei fiscal brasileira é uma construção particular e autêntica, com vistas a combater às fragilidades de uma nação única, chamada Brasil.