Em junho de 2013, o Governo Federal enviou ao Congresso Nacional uma proposta para o novo marco regulatória da mineração. No entanto, críticos dessa proposta alegam que, caso o aumento dos royalties da mineração pretendido pelo Governo não ocorra no bojo de uma reforma tributária mais ampla, a nova carga tributária pode inflar demasiadamente o custo de extração de alguns minérios no Brasil, prejudicando sua inserção no mercado internacional e, consequentemente, desestimulando investimentos produtivos no país. Neste sentido, o objetivo desta tese é realizar uma análise econômica sobre a compensação financeira pela exploração dos recursos minerais no âmbito do novo Código de Mineração. Através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, foram simulados os potenciais impactos do aumento na carga tributária incidente sobre a indústria de mineração, considerando seus efeitos sobre a economia nacional e sobre os principais estados brasileiros produtores de minério. Os resultados encontrados apontam que, apesar da queda no investimento e na produção da indústria mineral, o aumento dos gastos públicos regionais deve aquecer as economias locais, gerando renda e elevação de preços. Entretanto, o modelo adotado na simulação não considera que mudanças na base de cálculo da CFEM podem mudar o comportamento dos mineradores e que os novos recursos da compensação podem alterar a política fiscal dos governos contemplados. Para avaliar a primeira possibilidade, foram analisados modelos teóricos que indicam que o novo arcabouço regulatório está caminhando no sentido contrário da neutralidade do arranjo tributário, o que, a princípio, não é desejável. No entanto, tendo em vista que a assimetria de informação entre investidor privado e regulador também gera perdas ao poder público, sugere-se um arranjo alternativo para a CFEM, onde ela é composta por um componente fixo e um componente ad valorem, sendo que os valores pagos em cada modalidade pelo minerador devem ser definidos no leilão que atribuirá às jazidas minerais aos investidores interessados. Por fim, foram avaliados os impactos da CFEM na política fiscal dos municípios contemplados vis-à-vis o comportamento dos municípios não contemplados. Para isso, foram estimados diversos modelos econométricos elaboradas com base em um propensity score weighting espacial. São testados os efeitos da CFEM sobre o esforço fiscal dos municípios, sobre a contratação de empregados no setor público e sobre os gastos públicos correntes das prefeituras. Os resultados encontrados apontam que, em geral, as rendas da CFEM: (i) diminuem o esforço de arrecadação próprio dos municípios; (ii) aumentam a contratação de pessoal no setor público; e (iii) provocam uma expansão dos gastos públicos correntes significativamente maior do que aquela resultante de aumentos da renda per capita dos contribuintes, o chamado efeito flypaper. Com base nestes resultados, é sugerida a adoção de um Fundo de Recursos Soberanos para a administração federal dos recursos da CFEM, sendo que os estados e municípios beneficiados seriam cotistas do fundo, mas resgatariam os recursos sob algumas regras pré-definidas / In June 2013, the Brazilian Government sent to the Congress a proposal for the new regulatory framework of the mining sector, which includes an increase in royalties paid by mining companies. Critics of this proposal argue that this increase does not occur under a broader tax reform. Therefore, the new tax can rise the extraction cost of some minerals in Brazil, hampering the integration of companies into the international market and hence discouraging productive investment in the country. The aim of this thesis is to conduct an economic analysis of the financial compensation for the exploitation of mineral resources (CFEM) under the new Mining Code. Through a general equilibrium model, it simulated the potential impact of the increased royalties on the mining industry, considering their effects on the national economy as well as on the main Brazilian mining states. Results show that despite the falling investment and production on the mining industry, the rise of regional public spending should boost local economies, generating income and higher prices. However, the model adopted in the simulation does not take into account that changes in the CFEM\'s calculation basis can affect the behavior of miners and that the new revenues can change the fiscal policy of benefiting governments. In order to assess the first possibility, theoretical models were analyzed, whose results indicate that the new Mining Code is moving away from a neutral taxation arrangement, which is not desirable. However, since the information asymmetry between investor and regulator also generates losses to the government, it is suggested a new alternative, which consists in a two-component CFEM: a fixed one and a variable one. The proportions of each component should be set by auctions in order to allocate mineral rights to interested investors. With the purpose of considering the second hypothesis, the impacts of CFEM on the fiscal policy of the municipalities were analyzed. In order to do so, several econometric models based on a spatial propensity score weighting are estimated. The effects of CFEM on the tax effort of the municipalities, on the hiring of employees by the public sector and on the current public spending of municipalities are tested. Results show that, in general, CFEM rents: (i) decrease the effort of municipalities; (ii) increase the hiring in the public sector; and (iii) cause an expansion of current public spending significantly higher than that resulting from increases in income per capita (flypaper effect). Based on these results, it is suggested the adoption of a Sovereign Resources Fund for federal administration of CFEM. States and municipalities should be shareholders of the fund, but some predefined rules to rescue resources should be observed

This master thesis deals with the assessment of fiscal policy in the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic and the United States. The goal of this work is to evaluate the effect of fiscal expansion on the real economy and the country's debt. The first part deals with the theoretical definition of fiscal policy. The next section describes the main macroeconomic indicators of selected countries. The final section is devoted to assessing the effectiveness of specific fiscal stimulus and evaluating their impact on unemployment, the growth rate of GDP and public debt.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2017-12-21T11:31:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Mariana Corrêa de Andrade Pinho.pdf: 1106233 bytes, checksum: 9f66cebc63ae19a3ee3f37b45e4291b1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-12-21T11:31:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mariana Corrêa de Andrade Pinho.pdf: 1106233 bytes, checksum: 9f66cebc63ae19a3ee3f37b45e4291b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-14 / This paper focuses on the legal control instruments of tax incentives, based on a functional analysis of Tax Law. To achieve that, it proposes a return to the origins of Tax Law, that is born within the Science of Finance and whose main role is to regulate the mean to provide public requirements. Based on this premise, it critically addresses the current legal framework of tax incentives and the implications of applying the principle of equality in the extrafiscality. Therefore, the intermediate chapters are devoted to the principle of equality, to the notion of extrafiscality and to the concept of tax incentives. At last, discusses the need to combine the legislative discretion regarding tax benefits with the legal control instruments, especially those resulting from the application of the principle of proportionality / O presente estudo tem como foco central os instrumentos de controle jurídico dos incentivos fiscais, a partir de uma análise funcional do Direito Tributário. Para tanto, propõe um retorno às origens do Direito Tributário, disciplina jurídica que nasce no seio da Ciência das Finanças e tem por propósito regulamentar os meios para a satisfação das necessidades coletivas. Estabelecida essa premissa, aborda criticamente o atual regime jurídico dos incentivos fiscais e as consequências da aplicação do princípio da igualdade tributária no exercício da função extrafiscal dos tributos. Por esta razão, os capítulos intermediários são dedicados ao princípio da igualdade tributária, à noção de extrafiscalidade e ao conceito de incentivos fiscais. Ao final, dispõe sobre a necessidade de conciliar a discricionariedade política em matéria de benefícios fiscais com as formas de controle disponíveis no Direito Tributário, em especial as decorrentes da aplicação do princípio da proporcionalidade

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-10-06T15:22:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Augusto Andreis_.pdf: 1014563 bytes, checksum: 6dd9c7340de16a01a8e4c95110d7eff8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-06T15:22:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Augusto Andreis_.pdf: 1014563 bytes, checksum: 6dd9c7340de16a01a8e4c95110d7eff8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-21 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo principal desta dissertação foi analisar o comportamento da política fiscal no período posterior a implementação do Plano Real. Sabendo que as finanças públicas são afetadas diretamente pelo ciclo econômico, a análise foi feita através da metodologia do balanço orçamentário estrutural, que tem como premissa básica a eliminação do componente cíclico das receitas e despesas. Assim, optou-se por computar o balanço orçamentário estrutural pela ótica da OCDE e do FMI, sendo que, neste último, utilizou-se dois métodos distintos para obter a elasticidade receita-produto. Os resultados indicam que, entre 1998 e 2015, pode-se dividir a condução da política fiscal em três distintos períodos. O primeiro deles, que compreende o período 1998-2003, a política fiscal teve como objetivo a geração de superávits primários, ou seja, este período pode ser considerado um momento de ajuste fiscal, haja vista que ocorreram recorrentes contrações fiscais, todavia, esta orientação da política fiscal fez com que esta tenha apresentado um comportamento pró-cíclico. Já o segundo período, que vai de 2004 a 2011, pode ser considerado um período onde a política fiscal foi utilizada como instrumento de suavização dos movimentos ondulares da economia, ou seja, pode-se afirmar que a política fiscal teve um comportamento anticíclico. E, por fim, o terceiro período, que compreende o momento 2012-2015, onde houve recorrentes expansões fiscais, pode ser considerado um momento onde a política fiscal foi utilizada com o intuito de expandir a demanda agregada, o que acabou por fazer com que seu comportamento fosse pró-cíclico. É importante destacar que o ajuste fiscal ocorrido entre 1998 e 2003, que reduziu consideravelmente a dívida pública federal, pode ser um dos fatores que permitiu utilizar a política fiscal como instrumento anticíclico no período da crise do subprime. Neste sentido, se coloca em perspectiva a importância de um novo ajuste fiscal para fazer frente a possíveis crises futuras. Além disso, o período de ajuste fiscal no Brasil deveria ter ocorrido entre 2012 e 2014, momento onde o PIB cresceu acima de sua tendência de longo prazo, mas esse momento foi perdido. Desta forma, a política fiscal expansionista contribuiu para o país crescer acima de sua tendência e também para a piora das finanças públicas durante alguns anos. A proposta de ajuste fiscal pretendido em 2016 se torna muito mais custosa do que seria caso feito anteriormente. Ademais, a política fiscal brasileira apresenta poucas semelhanças com os países vizinhos e nenhum deles apresentou expansão fiscal semelhante a do Brasil, entre os anos de 2012 e 2015. Já ao comparar-se o comportamento fiscal brasileiro com os países pertencentes ao BRICS, observou-se novamente poucas semelhanças. / The main objective of this dissertation was to analyze the fiscal policy’s behavior in post Plano Real implementation period. Knowing that public finances are directly affected by the economic cycle, the analysis were made through the methodology of structural budget balance, which has as its basic premise the cyclically component of revenue and expenditure elimination. That being, it has been chosen to compute the structural budget balance by the optic of OECD and IMF, being that, in the last case, it has been utilized two distinct methods to obtain elasticity of revenue with respect to output. The results indicate that, between 1998 and 2015, the fiscal policy conduction can be divided into three distinct periods. The first of them, which comprehends the period 1998-2003, the fiscal policy had as objective to generate primary balance, that is, this period can be considered a moment of fiscal adjust, considering that there has been recurrent fiscal contractions, however, this fiscal policy orientation has made that to submit a procyclical behavior towards it self. The second period, which comprehends the 2004 to 2011 period, can be considered where the fiscal policy has been utilized as a tool for smoothing the wavy movements of economy, that is, it can be affirmed that the fiscal policy had an countercyclical behavior. And finally, the third period, which comprehends the period between 2012 to 2015, where has been recurrent fiscal expansions, and can be considered a moment when the fiscal policy has been used to expand the aggregate demand, what ended up to making its behavior to be procyclical. It is important to point out that the fiscal adjustment that occurred between 1998 and 2003, which has reduced the federal public debt considerably, can be one of the factors that allowed utilizing fiscal policy as an anticyclic tool during the subprime crisis. In that way, the importance of a new fiscal adjustment to confront possible future crisis is put in perspective. Besides that, the fiscal adjustment period in Brazil should had occurred between 2012 and 2014, a moment where the GDP grown above its long term tendency, but the moment was lost. In that way, the importance of a new fiscal adjustment to confront possible future crisis is put in perspective. Besides that, the fiscal adjustment period in Brazil should had occurred between 2012 and 2014, a moment where the GDP grown above its long term tendency, but the moment was lost. In that manner, expansionist fiscal policy has contributed towards the country’s growth above its trend and also to the worsen of public finances for a few years. The fiscal adjustment proposal pretended in 2016 becomes too expensive than if it was done before. Furthermore, the brazilian fiscal policy presents too little similarities with its neighbour countries and none of them presented fiscal expansion similar to Brazil’s between the years of 2012 and 2015. Although, comparing Brazil’s fiscal behavior with countries in BRICS, too liitle similarities are found once again.

Die Umsetzung theoretisch fundierter Besteuerungsprinzipien in die Praxis hat seit längerer Zeit einen prominenten Platz in der finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschung. Dabei besteht kein Zweifel, dass es ein größeres Interesse daran gibt, nicht nur theoretisch fundierte Prinzipien abzuleiten, sondern diese auch auf ihre Anwendbarkeit zu prüfen. Dieses Interesse an der optimalen Ausgestaltung eines Steuersystems in der Praxis wurde mit dem Zusammenbruch der sozialistischen Planwirtschaften in den 1990er Jahren nochmals verstärkt. Im Rahmen dieser umfassenden Transformationsprozesse ist es unabdingbar, dass die Wirtschaftsentwicklung über ein leistungsfähiges Steuersystem finanziert wird. Die zu erhebenden Steuern haben einen unmittelbaren Einfluss auf die ökonomischen Entscheidungen wie beispielsweise in Form eines Konsumverzichts. Darüber hinaus entstehen Zusatzlasten der Besteuerung (excess burden), wenn vergleichbare ökonomische Aktivitäten unterschiedlich besteuert werden und damit etwa der Konsum bestimmter Güter, eine bestimmte Investitionsart oder der Einsatz eines bestimmten Produktionsfaktors diskriminiert wird. Aus den Substitutionseffekten, die durch die Veränderungen der relativen Preise hervorgerufen werden, resultieren letztendlich über die Zahllast hinausgehende Nutzenverluste bei den Wirtschaftssubjekten. Dadurch werden die ökonomischen Konsum-/Sparentscheidungen verzerrt (Besteuerung der Kapitaleinkommen), das Leistungsangebot vermindert (Besteuerung der Arbeitseinkommen), Produktionsfaktoren umgelenkt oder Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen verzerrt (Unternehmenssteuer). Somit kann durch Steuern bzw. durch ihre unangemessene Ausgestaltung ein gesamtwirtschaftlicher Effizienzverlust verursacht werden. Gerade in Transformationsländern wie Georgien war mit Beginn der Transformationsphase de facto kein steuerpolitisches Know-how vorhanden, so dass eine enorme Nachfrage nach Beratung bestand und letztendlich der größte Teil der verabschiedeten Steuerreformen ein Ergebnis externer Beratung war. Ein erstes Ziel der Arbeit ist die Erstellung einer theoretischen Basis, um die einzelnen Steuerreformphasen besser zu verstehen. Ein zweites Ziel liegt in die Ableitung eines theoretisch fundierten Referenzrahmens (Benchmark) für die Beurteilung des Status quo sowie der Ausgestaltung der Einkommens- und Gewinnbesteuerung in Georgien. Die Ableitung von Benchmarks gilt dabei als ein eigenständiges Ziel wissenschaftlicher Forschung. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit dienen die Benchmarks jedoch als Beurteilungsmaßstab für die Evaluation der Steuerreformen in Georgien sowie für die Evaluation des hier erarbeiteten konkreten Reformvorschlags. Ein drittes Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist also in der konzeptionellen Ausgestaltung der Einkommens- und Gewinnbesteuerung in Georgien und deren konsequenten Ausrichtung an einem international anerkannten lebenszeitlichen bzw. konsumorientierten Leitbild der Besteuerung zu sehen. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein Entwurf für eine integrierte Einkommens- und Gewinnsteuer (Einfachsteuer) entwickelt, der den lokalen gesellschaftlichen Gegebenheiten optimal angepasst ist. Bei der Ausarbeitung eines entsprechenden Konzeptes für Georgien war zu berücksichtigen, dass die Effizienz reduzierenden Allokationsverzerrungen in diesen Systemen minimiert und die Belastung der Löhne und Gewinne durch Steuern auf ein angemessenes Niveau begrenzt werden sollten, um negative Anreizwirkungen in Bezug auf das Wirtschaftswachstum so gering wie möglich zu halten. Neben einer integrierten Einkommens- und Gewinnbesteuerung spielten dabei eine einheitliche Gewinnermittlung für Unternehmen (modifiziertes Kassenprinzip) sowie eine am Kassenprinzip orientierte Mehrwertsteuer eine besondere Rolle. Einkommen- und Mehrwertsteuerentwürfe erfüllen alle Neutralitätskriterien (Neutralität der intertemporalen Konsum- und Ersparnisbildung, Rechtsformneutralität, Investitionsneutralität in Bezug auf Human- und Sachkapital, Finanzierungsneutralität sowie Inflationsneutralität). Nach der Definition der Bemessungsgrundlagen für die Einzelsteuern und deren Anpassung an georgische Gegebenheiten war es notwendig, die technischen Einzelheiten für die Steuerverwaltung (Durchführungsverordnungen) und teilweise die zugehörigen Steuerformulare zu entwickeln. Diese müssen alle notwendigen Variablen der Veranlagungsverfahren erfassen und eindeutige Identifikationsmöglichkeiten für die Haushalte und Unternehmen bieten, was eine wichtige Rolle für die spätere Mikrosimulation spielt. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse dieser Arbeit sollen die politischen Entscheidungsträger bei der Auswahl eines geeigneten Reformvorschlages für das Einkommensteuergesetz unterstützen. / An efficient tax system is essential for the functioning of a market economy. The implementation of an effective tax system will help the countries in transition to build a sustainable market economy and achieve prosperity. After 90 years of soviet hegemony large economic, political and social changes were made in former Soviet Union countries to support the transformation process. A key role in the reform agenda is given to public finances, especially tax reform. During the last decade severa researches and recommendations have been made in scientific literature regarding a consumption based tax reform. The advantages of a consumption based tax system are based on the elimination of ineffective elements existing in the traditional tax system of Western countries and on the reduction of incorrect allocation effects of resources provoked by it. Income taxes distort the spend/save decision, leading taxpayers to prefer current over future consumption. Consumption taxes are thought not to have this effect. This suggests that a consumption based tax system is closer to the policy makers' notion of a fair and efficient system of capital income taxation and, hence, probably a better candidate for a tax reform in transformation countries than competing reform strategies. Stable economic growth is the essential basis for a country's successful transformation to a market economy. According to the varieties of taxes and their administration, Georgia more or less adopted the tax systems existing in Western countries. It becomes obvious that the chance of developing a rational, sustainable and adjusted tax system for transition countries was missed. A good portion of the tax reform process in Georgia has been carried out without an explicit evaluation of how well the different proposals would perform against standard objectives including revenue performance, economic neutrality, tax burden distribution, simplicity and administrative feasibility. Short-changing the preparation stage inevitably led to a continuous ad hoc patching of the system, creating confusion among tax administrators and taxpayers alike and creating uncertainty for domestic and national investors. The analysis of the tax reform are based on these basic criteria, according to which some taxes are especially deemed to be more expedient in a democratic and legal state. The following corresponds with the concept of an adequate tax system for a market economy: correspondence with the market economy's conditions, free of inflation effects, easily to administer and fair taxation. Especially for Georgia, a tax system is desirable, which will work successfully by taking into consideration the small resources of taxpayers and the administration. Some major distortionary effects of the Georgian income tax system can be easily replaced through minor reforms, which would turn it into a consumption-based income tax system. Unfortunately, the public discussion of the Georgian tax system has a rather different focus. As economists, we must keep in mind that taxpayers ask for low taxes (for themselves) but they do not care about neutral taxes. A neutral tax system is a typical public good. Apart from some strange economists, nobody will miss it. But society pays a price for a non-neutral tax system in form of less growth and a distorted industry structure.

Die Umsetzung theoretisch fundierter Besteuerungsprinzipien in die Praxis hat seit längerer Zeit einen prominenten Platz in der finanzwissenschaftlichen Forschung. Dabei besteht kein Zweifel, dass es ein größeres Interesse daran gibt, nicht nur theoretisch fundierte Prinzipien abzuleiten, sondern diese auch auf ihre Anwendbarkeit zu prüfen. Dieses Interesse an der optimalen Ausgestaltung eines Steuersystems in der Praxis wurde mit dem Zusammenbruch der sozialistischen Planwirtschaften in den 1990er Jahren nochmals verstärkt. Im Rahmen dieser umfassenden Transformationsprozesse ist es unabdingbar, dass die Wirtschaftsentwicklung über ein leistungsfähiges Steuersystem finanziert wird. Die zu erhebenden Steuern haben einen unmittelbaren Einfluss auf die ökonomischen Entscheidungen wie beispielsweise in Form eines Konsumverzichts. Darüber hinaus entstehen Zusatzlasten der Besteuerung (excess burden), wenn vergleichbare ökonomische Aktivitäten unterschiedlich besteuert werden und damit etwa der Konsum bestimmter Güter, eine bestimmte Investitionsart oder der Einsatz eines bestimmten Produktionsfaktors diskriminiert wird. Aus den Substitutionseffekten, die durch die Veränderungen der relativen Preise hervorgerufen werden, resultieren letztendlich über die Zahllast hinausgehende Nutzenverluste bei den Wirtschaftssubjekten. Dadurch werden die ökonomischen Konsum-/Sparentscheidungen verzerrt (Besteuerung der Kapitaleinkommen), das Leistungsangebot vermindert (Besteuerung der Arbeitseinkommen), Produktionsfaktoren umgelenkt oder Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen verzerrt (Unternehmenssteuer). Somit kann durch Steuern bzw. durch ihre unangemessene Ausgestaltung ein gesamtwirtschaftlicher Effizienzverlust verursacht werden. Gerade in Transformationsländern wie Georgien war mit Beginn der Transformationsphase de facto kein steuerpolitisches Know-how vorhanden, so dass eine enorme Nachfrage nach Beratung bestand und letztendlich der größte Teil der verabschiedeten Steuerreformen ein Ergebnis externer Beratung war. Ein erstes Ziel der Arbeit ist die Erstellung einer theoretischen Basis, um die einzelnen Steuerreformphasen besser zu verstehen. Ein zweites Ziel liegt in die Ableitung eines theoretisch fundierten Referenzrahmens (Benchmark) für die Beurteilung des Status quo sowie der Ausgestaltung der Einkommens- und Gewinnbesteuerung in Georgien. Die Ableitung von Benchmarks gilt dabei als ein eigenständiges Ziel wissenschaftlicher Forschung. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit dienen die Benchmarks jedoch als Beurteilungsmaßstab für die Evaluation der Steuerreformen in Georgien sowie für die Evaluation des hier erarbeiteten konkreten Reformvorschlags. Ein drittes Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist also in der konzeptionellen Ausgestaltung der Einkommens- und Gewinnbesteuerung in Georgien und deren konsequenten Ausrichtung an einem international anerkannten lebenszeitlichen bzw. konsumorientierten Leitbild der Besteuerung zu sehen. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein Entwurf für eine integrierte Einkommens- und Gewinnsteuer (Einfachsteuer) entwickelt, der den lokalen gesellschaftlichen Gegebenheiten optimal angepasst ist. Bei der Ausarbeitung eines entsprechenden Konzeptes für Georgien war zu berücksichtigen, dass die Effizienz reduzierenden Allokationsverzerrungen in diesen Systemen minimiert und die Belastung der Löhne und Gewinne durch Steuern auf ein angemessenes Niveau begrenzt werden sollten, um negative Anreizwirkungen in Bezug auf das Wirtschaftswachstum so gering wie möglich zu halten. Neben einer integrierten Einkommens- und Gewinnbesteuerung spielten dabei eine einheitliche Gewinnermittlung für Unternehmen (modifiziertes Kassenprinzip) sowie eine am Kassenprinzip orientierte Mehrwertsteuer eine besondere Rolle. Einkommen- und Mehrwertsteuerentwürfe erfüllen alle Neutralitätskriterien (Neutralität der intertemporalen Konsum- und Ersparnisbildung, Rechtsformneutralität, Investitionsneutralität in Bezug auf Human- und Sachkapital, Finanzierungsneutralität sowie Inflationsneutralität). Nach der Definition der Bemessungsgrundlagen für die Einzelsteuern und deren Anpassung an georgische Gegebenheiten war es notwendig, die technischen Einzelheiten für die Steuerverwaltung (Durchführungsverordnungen) und teilweise die zugehörigen Steuerformulare zu entwickeln. Diese müssen alle notwendigen Variablen der Veranlagungsverfahren erfassen und eindeutige Identifikationsmöglichkeiten für die Haushalte und Unternehmen bieten, was eine wichtige Rolle für die spätere Mikrosimulation spielt. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse dieser Arbeit sollen die politischen Entscheidungsträger bei der Auswahl eines geeigneten Reformvorschlages für das Einkommensteuergesetz unterstützen. / An efficient tax system is essential for the functioning of a market economy. The implementation of an effective tax system will help the countries in transition to build a sustainable market economy and achieve prosperity. After 90 years of soviet hegemony large economic, political and social changes were made in former Soviet Union countries to support the transformation process. A key role in the reform agenda is given to public finances, especially tax reform. During the last decade severa researches and recommendations have been made in scientific literature regarding a consumption based tax reform. The advantages of a consumption based tax system are based on the elimination of ineffective elements existing in the traditional tax system of Western countries and on the reduction of incorrect allocation effects of resources provoked by it. Income taxes distort the spend/save decision, leading taxpayers to prefer current over future consumption. Consumption taxes are thought not to have this effect. This suggests that a consumption based tax system is closer to the policy makers' notion of a fair and efficient system of capital income taxation and, hence, probably a better candidate for a tax reform in transformation countries than competing reform strategies. Stable economic growth is the essential basis for a country's successful transformation to a market economy. According to the varieties of taxes and their administration, Georgia more or less adopted the tax systems existing in Western countries. It becomes obvious that the chance of developing a rational, sustainable and adjusted tax system for transition countries was missed. A good portion of the tax reform process in Georgia has been carried out without an explicit evaluation of how well the different proposals would perform against standard objectives including revenue performance, economic neutrality, tax burden distribution, simplicity and administrative feasibility. Short-changing the preparation stage inevitably led to a continuous ad hoc patching of the system, creating confusion among tax administrators and taxpayers alike and creating uncertainty for domestic and national investors. The analysis of the tax reform are based on these basic criteria, according to which some taxes are especially deemed to be more expedient in a democratic and legal state. The following corresponds with the concept of an adequate tax system for a market economy: correspondence with the market economy's conditions, free of inflation effects, easily to administer and fair taxation. Especially for Georgia, a tax system is desirable, which will work successfully by taking into consideration the small resources of taxpayers and the administration. Some major distortionary effects of the Georgian income tax system can be easily replaced through minor reforms, which would turn it into a consumption-based income tax system. Unfortunately, the public discussion of the Georgian tax system has a rather different focus. As economists, we must keep in mind that taxpayers ask for low taxes (for themselves) but they do not care about neutral taxes. A neutral tax system is a typical public good. Apart from some strange economists, nobody will miss it. But society pays a price for a non-neutral tax system in form of less growth and a distorted industry structure.

The first two chapters are dedicated to the modeling and implementation of a stock-flow consistent framework that incorporates real estate as an asset in the portfolio of the household. The third chapter investigates the main determinants of mortgage repayment of Canadian households. This first chapter presents a five-sector stock-flow consistency growth model where the portfolio decision of the households includes their choice of how much real estate they are interested in holding. The primary aim of the chapter is to model the housing market using the stock-flow consistent approach to explain the current global financial problem triggered by the housing market. The model is then simulated to predict the behaviour of various variables and propose appropriate solutions to the financial problem in the hope of returning the economy to a suitable equilibrium. Households' portfolio consists of money deposits, bills, bank equities and real estate. The other sectors that interact with the household sector are the production firms, the banks, the central bank and the government. Aside from the household sector, the banking sector ends up holding some real estate equivalent to the amount of mortgages defaulted by the households. The supply of real estate from the production sector is therefore augmented by the additional ones held by the banks. The second chapter presents the implementation of the stock-flow consistency model of first chapter. The purpose of the chapter is to run a simulation of the model and experiment with shocks to determine the path of the economic variables of the model. Another objective in performing the experiments is to find policies for mitigating the housing crisis. The model is implemented using the Eviews computer modeling software and runs until a stationary steady state is achieved. Various shocks are applied to the baseline stationary state. The results of the monetary policy show that the mortgage rate shock is more effective in influencing the growth rate of the economy as well as controlling the real estate market. Government fiscal policy is also effective in regulating the housing market. A one-period temporary fiscal policy shock is even capable of generating permanent long run growth effects. Household expectations in future housing price increases or future high rates of housing returns have the effect of heating the real estate market without comparable increases in economic growth. Policy makers must keep these expectations in check. The third chapter analyzes the determinants of mortgage repayment options in Canada. With the freedom that comes with being debt-free and owning a home one will assume that households pay off their mortgages as soon as possible. However, there are factors that inhibit households from carrying out these payoffs. The study uses Canadian micro-level data to examine factors that drive households to default, prepay or continue to make regular mortgage payments. The research methodology uses multinomial (polytomous) logistic regression analyzes. The empirical results establish that the traditional mortgage related predictor variables for repayment are statistically significant with the expected signs. The results relating to the provinces are not significantly different from each other. The results did not however provide any significance in relation to mortgage rates and the number of children in the household.

published_or_final_version / Public Administration / Master / Master of Social Sciences

Ekonominio nuosmukio sąlygomis, fiskalinės politikos sprendimai ypač svarbūs, nes vienokie ar kitokie žingsniai gali sutrumpinti arba pailginti ir pagilinti ūkio nuosmukį. Tokiu metu ekonomikos dalyviai labai jautriai reaguoja į fiskalinės politikos klaidas. Taigi svarbu tinkamai įvertinti kiekvieno sprendimo pasekmes. Dabartinės sąlygos neleidžia didinti valstybės išlaidų bei biudžeto deficito ir taip skatinti ekonominį atsigavimą. Tenka mažinti išlaidas ir stengtis didinti pajamas labai tam nepalankiu metu. Siekiant padidinti mokestines pajamas didinant mokestinę naštą, įvertinti tik aritmetinį to rezultatą nepakanka. Teorija ir empiriniai Lietuvos ir kitų šalių biudžeto surinkimo duomenys rodo, kad didesni mokesčiai ne visada lemia didesnes mokestines pajamas dėl dviejų priežasčių: dėl sumažėjusio ekonominio aktyvumo ir dėl šešėlinės ekonomikos dalies didėjimo. Viena iš pagrindinių šešėlinės ekonomikos plėtros priežasčių, kaip parodė daugelis tyrimų visame pasaulyje, yra mokestinė našta ir valstybės reguliavimas. Apibendrinus visas sąlygas Lietuvoje - ekonomikos smukimą, neigiamus ekonomikos dalyvių lūkesčius ir kita - paaiškėja, kad susidaro gana palanki aplinka šešėlinės ekonomikos plėtrai. Atsižvelgiant į biudžeto surinkimo duomenis ir atliktus tyrimus, galima daryti prielaidą, kad šešėlinės ekonomikos plėtra Lietuvoje galėjo lemti didesnį nei prognozuota ekonomikos smukimą. Turint omenyje mažesnį nei planuota biudžeto surinkimą ir padidinus mokesčius, galima... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / During the economic slowdown, fiscal policy decisions are very important because they can shorten or lengthen and deepen economic downturn. At these times economic actors are very sensitive to fiscal policy mistakes. So it is important to evaluate the consequences of every single decision. Today’s situation does not allow stimulation of economy by increasing government expenditure and budget deficit. One must reduce expenditure and increase revenue in such unfavourable time. While trying to increase tax revenue by increasing tax burden, it is not sufficient to evaluate only arithmetical effect. Theory and empirical Lithuanian and other countries budget collection show that higher taxes do not always bring higher tax revenue because of two reasons: lower economic activity and increase in shadow economy. According to numerous surveys, the main reason of shadow economy is tax burden and state regulation. By summing up all the conditions – economic slowdown, negative expectation of economic actors and other – it is quite clear that the conditions for shadow economy are quite favourable. Considering budget collection and surveys, increase in shadow economy could have encouraged higher than forecasted economic slowdown. Lower than planned budget collection even with higher taxes allow to forecast that further increase in tax burden would only decrease tax revenue. Furthermore, collection of separate taxes shows that the collection of those taxes which were increased, differed from... [to full text]

The economic crisis of 2007 has had debilitating effects on the global economy, affecting GDP growth, unemployment and trade to name a few. In response to these economic effects, numerous policy interventions were implemented. There are various existing time-series methods available to determine better estimates of GDP growth rates, one of which is Stein’s Paradox which uses observed averages to estimate unobservable quantities which are closer to the true unknown GDP growth rates or theta (θ) in order to determine better growth rates post the economic crisis. The resulting James-Stein estimator (z) is said to be better than the arithmetic average, and thus a closer approximation to the true GDP growth rates which are unobservable. This dissertation analyses the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the global economy, with specific reference to South Africa and America, and their corresponding policy interventions to determine the growth trajectory after the crisis. The main objective is to determine if better estimates of GDP growth can be calculated using Stein’s Paradox, across a sample of 30 countries, using quarterly GDP growth for the period 2005 to 2008. Annual GDP data was also used for the period 2009-2011, and future GDP growth rates were forecasted for the period 2012 to 2016. To reinforce the Stein’s Paradox, the Monte Carlo study is undertaken. It is used to determine how the James-Stein estimates perform under different conditions using a common c or unique c, and to determine which condition will provide more accurate GDP growth rates (Muthen. 2002). Analysis of time series data across a sample of 30 countries using Stein’s Paradox provided better estimates of GDP growth rates than the individual average growth rates for each country based on the lower standard deviation and total squared error of estimation achieved. This shows that the results are closer to theta and have a smaller amount of error, particularly when a common c was used. The Monte Carlo results indicate that better GDP growth rates are achieved when using a common c instead of a unique c given that a smaller standard deviation and variance is derived. Therefore the Monte Carlo study aims to reinforce or verify Stein’s Paradox. The study also indicates that emerging and developing countries seem to be the driving forces of growth in the future, while developed countries seem to be lagging behind. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.