The aim of the diploma thesis is to apprise the reader with a basic life insur- ance projection method which is used for the valuation of insurance company's liabilities. The basic projection method can be extremely time consuming in practise so another two variance reduction methods and their combination are presented to obtain either more precise liabilities estimation, or to reduce the time required for the projection. The presented methods are antithetic variate method, control-variate method and their combination later called integrated control-variate method. The final outcome of the thesis is simulation experi- ment which evaluates the liabilities of the group of policies and comparison of the presented variance reduction methods. 1

收益還原法，係學習不動產估價者所熟習的「三大估價方法」之一，以學術立場而言 ，因係直接從不動產價值之定義推導而來，深具理論基礎。並有具體之數學公式加以 支持說明，故學者推許其為較符合理論之方法。考諸國外文獻，探討收益還原法(In- come Approach)之著述論文汗牛充棟，據以建立之價格模型亦不勝枚舉。反觀國內， 卻始終將之束諸高閣，少有專論，亦不見實用，其因若何，頗值深究。 目前台灣社會正值轉型期，工商業發達，不動產之使用方式亦有改變，所有權垂直分 割之觀念逐漸形成，因此估價之標的亦隨之多樣化。市價比較法需有同質事例為前提 之要件，使其倍受考驗，且適用必有窮時，需謀求其他解決方法。此時，收益還原法 或許正可滿足此一趨勢的需要，據以評估不動產各項具經濟效益之權利價值。 本研究根據收益還原法之諸項課題，探討其基本結構與實質內容，並針對收益還原法 傳統理論之假設與現實環境背離的現象，藉現金流量折現模型(Discounted Cash Fl- ow Model) 之導入，加以說明、修正，並廓清以往觀念上之偏誤。 經研究發現，現金流量折現模型實即收益還原公式，惟其透過現金流量變動性的顯現 ，去除不必要之假設條件而更具現實性，並經由電腦之強大運算功能，克服了繁複之 計量難題。經由反向之推求，更可掌握不動產投資報酬水準等資訊，提供決策時之參 考依據。

This diploma thesis is thematically oriented towards early theories of public opinion of the late 19th century. Concretely, it deals with the theories of Alexis de Tocqueville, John Stuart Mill and James Bryce. The thesis presents an analysis, interpretation and a comparison of these three thinkers and concentrates on the following topics: the definition of the term "public opinion"; the formation of public opinion; the influence individuals, groups and society as a whole have on public opinion; and the role the media play in public opinion. Further, it shows how these authors' thoughts are continued in selected 20th century theories of public opinion, namely in Walter Lippmann's concept of public opinion, the Two-step flow model developed by Elihu Katz and Paul Lazarsfeld, Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's Spiral of Silence, Irving Crespi's theory of the Public Opinion Process and Giovanni Sartori's "cascade model" of public opinion. Key words: public opinion, media, Two-step flow model, Spiral of Silence, Public Opinion Process, cascade model of public opinion, Alexis de Tocqeuville, John Stuart Mill, James Bryce, W. Lippmann, E. Katz, P. Lazarsfeld, E. Noelle-Neumann, I. Crespi, G. Sartori

<div>Adsorbent technology is widely used in many industrial applications including waste heat recovery, water purification, and atmospheric revitalization in confined habitations. Astronauts depend on adsorbent-based systems to remove metabolic carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the cabin atmosphere; as NASA prepares for the journey to Mars, engineers are redesigning the adsorbent-based system for reduced weight and optimal efficiency. These efforts hinge upon the development of accurate, predictive models, as simulations are increasingly relied upon to save cost and time over the traditional design-build-test approach. Engineers rely on simplified models to reduce computational cost and enable parametric optimizations. Amongst these simplified models is the axially dispersed plug-flow model for predicting the adsorbate concentration during flow through an adsorbent bed. This model is ubiquitously used in designing fixed-bed adsorption systems. The current work aims to improve the accuracy of the axially dispersed plug-flow model because of its wide-spread use. This dissertation identifies the critical model inputs that drive the overall uncertainty in important output quantities then systematically improves the measurement and prediction of these input parameters. Limitations of the axially dispersed plug-flow model are also discussed, and recommendations made for identifying failure of the plug-flow assumption.</div><div><br></div><div>An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of an axially disperse plug-flow model is first presented. Upper and lower uncertainty bounds for each of the model inputs are found by comparing empirical correlations against experimental data from the literature. Model uncertainty is then investigated by independently varying each model input between its individual upper and lower uncertainty bounds then observing the relative change in predicted effluent concentration and temperature (<i>e.g.</i>, breakthrough time, bed capacity, and effluent temperature). This analysis showed that the LDF mass transfer coefficient is the largest source of uncertainty. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis reveals that ignoring the effect of wall-channeling on apparent axial dispersion can cause significant error in the predicted breakthrough times of small-diameter beds.</div><div><br></div><div>In addition to LDF mass transfer coefficient and axial-dispersion, equilibrium isotherms are known to be strong lever arms and a potentially dominant source of model error. As such, detailed analysis of the equilibrium adsorption isotherms for zeolite 13X was conducted to improve the fidelity of CO₂ and H₂O on equilibrium isotherms compared to extant data. These two adsorbent/adsorbate pairs are of great interest as NASA plans to use zeolite 13X in the next generation atmospheric revitalization system. Equilibrium isotherms describe a sorbent’s maximum capacity at a given temperature and adsorbate (<i>e.g.</i>, CO₂ or H₂O) partial pressure. New isotherm data from NASA Ames Research Center and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for CO₂ and H₂O adsorption on zeolite 13X are presented. These measurements were carefully collected to eliminate sources of bias in previous data from the literature, where incomplete activation resulted in a reduced capacity. Several models are fit to the new equilibrium isotherm data and recommendations of the best model fit are made. The best-fit isotherm models from this analysis are used in all subsequent modeling efforts discussed in this dissertation.</div><div><br></div><div>The last two chapters examine the limitations of the axially disperse plug-flow model for predicting breakthrough in confined geometries. When a bed of pellets is confined in a rigid container, packing heterogeneities near the wall lead to faster flow around the periphery of the bed (<i>i.e.</i>, wall channeling). Wall-channeling effects have long been considered negligible for beds which hold more than 20 pellets across; however, the present work shows that neglecting wall-channeling effects on dispersion can yield significant errors in model predictions. There is a fundamental gap in understanding the mechanisms which control wall-channeling driven dispersion. Furthermore, there is currently no way to predict wall channeling effects a priori or even to identify what systems will be impacted by it. This dissertation aims to fill this gap using both experimental measurements and simulations to identify mechanisms which cause the plug-flow assumption to fail.</div><div><br></div><div>First, experimental evidence of wall-channeling in beds, even at large bed-to-pellet diameter ratios (<i>d</i>_bed/<i>d</i>_p=48) is presented. These experiments are then used to validate a method for accurately extracting mass transfer coefficients from data affected by significant wall channeling. The relative magnitudes of wall-channeling effects are shown to be a function of the adsorption/adsorbate pair and geometric confinement (<i>i.e.</i>, bed size). Ultimately, the axially disperse plug-flow model fails to capture the physics of breakthrough when nonplug-flow conditions prevail in the bed.</div><div><br></div><div>The final chapter of this dissertation develops a two-dimensional (2-D) adsorption model to examine the interplay of wall-channeling and adsorption kinetics and the adsorbent equilibrium capacity on breakthrough in confined geometries. The 2-D model incorporates the effect of radial variations in porosity on the velocity profile and is shown to accurately capture the effect of wall-channeling on adsorption behavior. The 2-D model is validated against experimental data, and then used to investigate whether capacity or adsorption kinetics cause certain adsorbates to exhibit more significant radial variations in concentration compared than others. This work explains channeling effects can vary for different adsorbate and/or adsorbent pairs—even under otherwise identical conditions—and highlights the importance of considering adsorption kinetics in addition to the traditional <i>d</i>_bed/<i>d</i>_p criteria.</div><div><br></div><div>This dissertation investigates key gaps in our understanding of fixed-bed adsorption. It will deliver insight into how these missing pieces impact the accuracy of predictive models and provide a means for reconciling these errors. The culmination of this work will be an accurate, predictive model that assists in the simulation-based design of the next-generation atmospheric revitalization system for humans’ journey to Mars.</div>

The Walla Walla basin lies in an arid region of Eastern Washington and Oregon. A large portion of the area is devoted to agricultural production, relying on irrigation water diverted from the Walla Walla River and underlying aquifers occurring within Quaternary and Mio-pliocene era gravel deposits, as well as a supplemental source from the Columbia River Basalt formation. Heavy water demand over summer months has resulted in a fully allocated surface water supply and significant drawdown in groundwater levels. The Walla Walla River also hosts two salmonid species listed as threatened under the endangered species act and entitled to federal protection. Specific questions have emerged regarding regional water supply as stakeholders work towards management strategies that meet water user demands, well also addressing concerns such as groundwater depletion and fish habitat. Currently, there are proposals aimed at increasing water use efficiency such as the lining of permeable canal beds and the expansion of a shallow aquifer recharge program. Effective implementation of such strategies, in part, relies on understanding the interactions between surface water and groundwater within this region. This project used the distributed hydrologic model, Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), for simulating surface and subsurface flows over a portion of the Walla Walla River basin spanning from Milton Freewater, Oregon to west of Touchet, Washington. This application of IWFM uses a grid with an average spacing of 100 x 100 meters over the 230 square kilometer model area. The model was developed and calibrated using data from 2007 through 2009, with 2010 data to be used as a data set for validation. Data collection has been a collaborative effort between a research team from Oregon State University and the Walla Walla Basin Watershed Council (WWBWC). This thesis provides explanation and documentation of model development. This includes details of data collection and processing for groundwater and surface water conditions, estimation of initial and boundary conditions, parameter calibration, model validation, and error analysis. Data sources include federal and state agencies, a gauge network managed by the WWBWC, and geologic research primarily performed by Kevin Lindsey of GSI Water Solutions with support of the WWBWC. Parameters have been independently determined from field measurements whenever possible. Otherwise they were estimated using established methods of hydrologic analysis, values drawn from previous regional studies, or the process of model calibration. Outputs include detailed hydrological budgets and hydrographs for groundwater and surface water gauges. The calibrated model has an overall correlation coefficient of 0.59 for groundwater and 0.63 for surface water. The standard deviation for groundwater is 3.2 meters at 62 well locations and surface water has a mean relative error of 22.3 percent at 34 gauges. This model intended as a tool for formulating water budgets for the basin under present conditions and making predictions of systemic responses to hypothetical water management scenarios. Scenarios of increased inputs into the Locher Road aquifer recharge site and conversion of irrigation district canals into pipelines are presented. / Graduation date: 2012

This thesis presents a novel analytical solution strategy for the zero-inertia (ZI) equations of free surface flow. These equations are utilized herein for routing flood flow in open channels and for simulating excess rainfall runoff on overland planes. The novel solution approach is shown to be both accurate and robust, especially under the complicated and intricate conditions of infiltrating flow on initially dry river beds or soils, e.g., as present in arid and semiarid areas. This is underlain by comparing modeling results of the novel analytical procedure with those of validated numerical solutions. Furthermore, it is shown that the analytical ZI model can deliver a process-oriented portrayal of runoff concentration in the flood-generating parts of the catchment. Subsequently, the novel analytical ZI model is applied for a real-world water management problem in the Sultanate of Oman, Arabian Peninsula. Within an integrated flash flood routing model—which is also presented in this thesis—the novel analytical routing approach helps in accurately matching the dynamics of advancing and infiltrating ephemeral river flow, established as a consequence of release from a groundwater recharge dam. The integrated modeling system houses the aforementioned analytical downstream model and tailor-made, state-of-the-art modeling components to portray the upstream flow processes, dam operation (including evaporation), and spillway release flow. The proposed modeling system can aid in rendering a realistic image of transient transmission losses and dependent flow dynamics. This is of extremely high importance for water resources assessment, as well as for optimizing recharge dam operation strategies in order to maximize downstream transmission losses and, thus, groundwater recharge. / Diese Dissertation präsentiert einen neuartigen analytischen Lösungsansatz für das beschleunigungsfreie Wellenmodell (bzw. „Zero-Inertia-Modell“, „ZI-Modell“, oder „diffusives Wellenmodell“). Im Rahmen der Arbeit wird das hergeleitete hydrodynamische Modell sowohl zur Simulation von Freispiegelabflüssen in nichtprismatischen und durchlässigen Gerinnen, als auch für die Beschreibung von auf der Landoberfläche abfließendem Infiltrationsüberschuss eingesetzt. Es wird gezeigt, dass der neuartige analytische Ansatz — im Hinblick auf Massenerhaltung und die exakte Abbildung der Abflussdynamik — akkurate Ergebnisse liefert und gleichzeitig unter komplexen und verwickelten Prozessbedingungen anwendbar ist. So belegt eine vergleichende Analyse mit validierten numerischen Lösungsansätzen die Robustheit des analytischen ZI-Modells. Insbesondere die im Sinne der numerischen Mathematik stabile und genaue Modellierung der gekoppelten Abfluss- und Infiltrationsvorgänge in anfänglich trockenen Gerinnen ist dabei ein Novum. Weiterhin wird die Eignung und Anwendbarkeit des neuartigen Modellansatzes zur Beschreibung der Abflusskonzentrationsprozesse gezeigt. Der neuartige Lösungsansatz wird im Folgenden für ein reales Wassermanagementproblem im Sultanat Oman, Arabische Halbinsel eingesetzt. Als Bestandteil eines integrierten Modellsystems, welches ebenfalls im Rahmen der Dissertation vorgestellt wird, dient das analytische ZI-Modell zur Simulation von infiltrierendem Wadiabfluss, welcher unterstrom von Grundwasseranreicherungsdämmen starke Verluste von Masse und Impuls erfährt. Zusammen mit maßgeschneiderten und dem Stand der Technik entsprechenden Komponenten für die Betriebssimulation des Anreicherungsdammes (inklusive Verdunstung von der freien Seefläche) sowie für die Abbildung der oberstromigen hydrodynamischen Prozesse (ebenfalls inklusive Infiltration) wird der neuartige analytische Ansatz in einem Modellsystem zusammengefasst. Das Modellsystem ist in der Lage ein realistisches Bild der raumzeitlichen Dynamik des Abflusses sowie der Grundwasserneubildung aus infiltrierendem Wadiabfluss zu liefern. Damit stellt das Modellsystem ein wertvolles Werkzeug sowohl zur Wasserdargebotsermittlung, als auch für die Optimierung des Betriebes von Grundwasseranreicherungsdämmen dar.

This thesis deals with computing the pressure distribution around a swimming slender fish and the thrust generated by its flapping motion. The body of the fish is modeled as a missile like slender body to which a tail is attached that is modeled as a swept wing. The tail is attached to the tip of the slender body and maintains its slope with it. The motion for the swimming fish is prescribed. The fluid flow is modeled as an unsteady potential flow problem with the flow around the slender body modeled as flow over an array of cylinders of varying radii and the flow over the swept wing modeled using the vortex panel method. The pressure distribution is computed using the unsteady Bernoulli equation. The overall thrust & drag for different parameters are studied and compared

This work thoroughly analyzes a previously created computational model for predicting characteristic properties of the combustion process in an experimental combustion chamber. Any found shortcomings of the original model are removed and the model is further improved prior to its application on 11 real cases of combustion tests performed at various conditions and with various fuels. Data provided by the model are confronted with the data obtained during the combustion tests and the model accuracy is evaluated, based on local heat flux along the length of the combustion chamber. Finally, the overall usefulness of the model is determined by the means of evaluating the acquired accuracy values, and further possibilities of model improvement and use are presented.

Informetrics study the information flow as a pure information phenomenon. However what are the practical applications of this problem? Information flow can be understood, investigated and managed from different points of view. The most practical one is management approach combined with intuitive analogy. Water flow parallel appears suitable. A conceptual model can be propounded upon this foundation and then used for better illustration of information flow function and key parts. Finally, a good amount of instruments and management methods can be used to manage information flows. So in chosen organization the current state of information flows and contemporary methods of its management are investigated in order to compare the theory and the practice. Concrete suggestions and statements about information flow management are deduced afterwards This paper illustrate possibilities of usage of information flow management in practice. Keywords information flow management - methods of information flow management - information flow model - practical aplications - case study - analogy - induction - Regional research library in Liberec

Thermisch und mechanisch hoch beanspruchte Bauteile im Automobil erfordern den Einsatz hochbeständiger Werkstoffe, bei gleichzeitig niedrigen Materialkosten und effizienter Verarbeitung. Rieselfähige Phenolharzformmassen zeichnen dabei eine Werkstoffklasse aus, die aufgrund ihres Eigenschaftsprofils neue Anwendungsbereiche für einen polymeren Werkstoffeinsatz ermöglichen können. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit werden im Hinblick auf eine Bauteilentwicklung mithilfe der integrativen Simulation die Grundlagen einer ganzheitlichen Simulationskette der Prozess- und Struktursimulation von rieselfähigen Phenolharzen mit Kurz- und Langglasfaserverstärkung erarbeitet. Das auf Basis umfangreicher Prozessuntersuchungen abgeleitete Strömungsverhalten kann mithilfe des Block-/Scherströmungsmodells beschrieben werden. Die Ergebnisse der Mikrostrukturanalyse zeigen jedoch eine Orientierungsdynamik der Fasern, welche zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt mithilfe der empirischen Modelle der klassischen Spritzgießsolver nicht abgebildet werden kann. Die mikromechanische Materialmodellierung erfolgt entsprechend an der experimentell ermittelten Mikrostruktur, welche die Berücksichtigung von Faserbündelungen und -krümmungen in der mechanischen Strukturanalyse erlaubt. Das abgeleitete elastoplastische Materialmodell wird zur Vorhersage des Ermüdungsverhaltens unter harmonischer und nichtharmonischer Schwingbeanspruchung um ein zyklisches Versagensmodell erweitert, welches eine mittellast- und temperaturunabhängige Berechnung unter Berücksichtigung der Anisotropie ermöglicht. Die Validierung der statischen und schwingenden Beanspruchung erfolgt an einer einfachen Probestabgeometrie sowie einem Strukturbauteil, einem PKW-Motorträger. / Thermally and mechanically highly stressed automotive components require the use of highly resistant materials, with low material costs and efficient processing. Phenolic resin molding compounds represent a class of materials, which can open up new applications for a polymeric material use due to their property profile. In the present work, the fundamentals of a simulation chain of fluid mechanical and structural simulation of phenolic resins with short and long glass fiber reinforcement are developed, with a view to component development using integrative simulation. Based on extensive process investigations the derived flow behavior can be described using the block/ shear flow model. However, the results of microstructure analysis show a dynamic of fiber orientation, which can not be predicted at the present time using the empirical models of classical injection molding simulation. Accordingly, the micromechanical modeling is carried out at the experimentally determined microstructure. That allows the inclusion of fiber bundling and bending in the mechanical structure analysis. The derived elastoplastic material model is extended by a fatigue failure model to predict the fatigue behavior under harmonic and non-harmonic cyclic stress which allows a calculation taking into account the anisotropy, the stress ratio and the temperature. The validation of the static stress and fatigue is performed both on a simple test bar geometry and a structural component, an automotive engine bracket.