The first two official AIDS cases were diagnosed in South Africa in 1982. During the same period of the 1980s, the black/African population was experiencing an accelerated fertility decline, following a period of accelerated mortality decline. Demographers invoked the demographic transition theory to explain the observed mortality and fertility decline. According to the demographic transition theory, mortality and fertility rates would continue declining to low, post transitional levels with increasing modernization. The relatively higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS estimated among black/African South Africans is expected to alter their demographic transition. This research investigated the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/Africans by 2021.

Climate detection studies point to changes in global surface temperature and rainfall patterns over the past 100 years, resulting from anthropogenic influences. Studies on the analysis of rainfall patterns [1950 – 1999] in southern Africa’s summer rainfall areas show an increase in the duration of late summer dry spells, and this change is in line with expected effects of global warming. Observations of surface temperature increases are consistent with climate projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs), as well as with overall changes in climate over the past century. As such, the alterations in climate conditions have a potential to significantly impact agro-ecosystems. The changes in these climatic patterns are projected to result in a cascade of changes in crop responses, and their associated crop yield-limiting factors through altering water available for agriculture, as well as yield-reduction factors by increasing pest/disease/weed prevalence, both of which may lead to agricultural production being affected severely. The objective of this study is to explore effects of scenarios of climate change on agrohydrological responses in the Limpopo Catchment, with an emphasis on the development and application of statistical modelling and analysis techniques. The algorithms of temperature based life cycle stages of the Chilo partellus Spotted Stem Borer, those for agricultural water use and production indicators, and for net above-ground primary production (an option in the ACRU model) as a surrogate for the estimation of agricultural production. At the time that these analyses were conducted, the downscaled daily time step climate projections of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM, considered to indicate projections that are midway between the extremes from other GCMs for southern Africa, were the only scenarios available at a high spatial resolution which had been configured for South Africa. Further, the statistical analysis techniques conducted in the dissertation include quantitative uncertainty analyses on the temperature and precipitation projections from multiple GCMs (the output of which subsequently became available), as well as validation analyses of various algorithms by comparing results obtained from the GCM’s present climate scenarios with those from historically obtained climates from the same time period. The uncertainty analyses suggest that there is an acceptable consistency in the GCMs’ climate projections in the Limpopo Catchment, with an overall high confidence in the changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation projections when using the outputs of the multiple GCMs analysed. However, the means of monthly projections indicated varied confidence levels in the GCMs’ output, more so for precipitation than for temperature projections. Findings from the Validation analyses of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM’s present climate scenario estimations of agricultural production and the agricultural yield-reduction (Chilo partellus) factor against those from observed baseline climate conditions for the same time period indicated a positive linear relationship and a high spatial correlation. This suggests that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM’s present climate scenario is relatively robust when compared with output from observed climate conditions. ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM projections show that agricultural production in future might increase by over half in the southern and eastern parts of the Limpopo Catchment compared to that under present climate conditions. Findings from the projections of the yield-limiting factor representing water available for agriculture over the Catchment suggest increases in the agricultural water productivity indicator under future climate conditions, with pronounced increases likely in the eastern and southern periphery. On the other hand, the agricultural water use indicator maintained high crop water use over most of the Catchment under all climate scenarios, both present and future. These positive effects might be due to this particular GCM projecting wetter future climate conditions than other GCMs do. Similar increases were projected for the yield-reduction factor, viz. the development of Chilo partellus over the growing season. These results suggest an increase in the C. partellus development, and thus prevalence, over the growing season in the Catchment, and this correlates spatially with the projected rise in agricultural production. The projected positive effects on agricultural production are thus likely to be reduced by the prevalence in agricultural yield-reduction factors and restricted by agricultural yield-limiting factors. The techniques used in this study, particularly the temperature based development models for the agricultural yield-reduction factor and the agricultural water use/water productivity indicators, could be used in future climate impact assessments with availability of outputs from more and updated GCMs, and in adaptation studies. This information can be instrumental in local and national policy guidance and planning. Keywords: Climate projections (scenarios), agricultural production, agricultural yield-reduction (Chilo partellus) and -limiting factors, uncertainty analysis, validation analysis. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

The first two official AIDS cases were diagnosed in South Africa in 1982. During the same period of the 1980s, the black/African population was experiencing an accelerated fertility decline, following a period of accelerated mortality decline. Demographers invoked the demographic transition theory to explain the observed mortality and fertility decline. According to the demographic transition theory, mortality and fertility rates would continue declining to low, post transitional levels with increasing modernization. The relatively higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS estimated among black/African South Africans is expected to alter their demographic transition. This research investigated the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/Africans by 2021.

This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.

The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.

This study set out to explore the strategising practices of middle managers and thereby expand the body of knowledge in terms of middle management practices in strategising in general, and makes an original contribution at the frontiers of middle management practices in a university context in South Africa. Although some research has been done on middle managers and strategy, a knowledge gap still exists, especially regarding strategising in emerging economies, such as South Africa. More specifically, the actions of middle managers at universities are open for exploration. Universities are increasingly exposed to new challenges in a competitive environment due to declining state funding, changing student demographics, new technological developments and increased market pressures. The sustainability of universities is also threatened by changes inside the universities, such as the drive for corporatisation and a changing internal focus. The way universities respond to and pre-empt dealing with these challenges will influence the sustainability and competitiveness of the university and subsequently the nations it serves. However, very little is known about the university managers who are powerful in terms of the administrative systems and decision processes. In order to understand strategy work viii and to know what enables or constrains it, it is necessary to look at middle managers at universities. This research puts forward three main arguments: firstly, strategy is dispersed throughout the entire organisation and includes middle managers’ strategising activities. Secondly, a need exists for practically relevant research founded in the organisational realities. Thirdly, universities present a relevant context within which to study strategising practices. An exploratory qualitative case study was followed to answer the research questions. Findings indicate that university middle managers, who operate within a machine bureaucracy, create systems within systems in order to cope with the organisational demands. Middle managers are mostly responsible for strategy implementation and the support role of university managers is prominent. Findings also indicate that the strategy loses its meaning and in an environment where the strategy textual artefacts and talk are abundant. In such an environment compliance takes precedence over buy-in. Finally, this study identified the enablers of and constraints on the strategy work of university middle managers. This research confirmed that strategy and strategising are human actions and confirmed that knowledge of what people do in relation to the strategies of organisations is required. / Economics / D. Com. (Business Management)

This study set out to explore how Official Development Assistance was practised in South Africa. An exploratory narrative design was followed to uncover the ‘strategy in the skin’ of strategy practitioners in the unit of analysis and to respond, therefore, to the research questions. This study has contributed to the body of knowledge in that it has brought together an alternative confluence of three theoretical perspectives of strategy as practice; complex adaptive systems and organisational hypocrisy and has explored the impact of the practice lens on these standpoints. While there has been extensive research on each of the theoretical perspectives, there has not yet been a study that has drawn together the three perspectives in relation to an empirical unit of analysis such as Official Development Assistance practices and practitioners. The study responded to a knowledge gap in relation to how public sector organisations, such as government units and the strategy practitioners of such units, practice strategy beyond the reified, formalised conceptions of strategy and in relation to their inhabiting complex, political organisational systems. The study arrived at two central theoretical findings. Firstly, that strategising represents a calibration of strategic practices towards strategic outcomes through the activities of complex adaptive practitioners v within the more politically inclined organisation. Secondly, that beyond the text of strategy, there is sub-text that is equally part of the micro strategy towards strategic outcomes.The skilful and sometimes delicate balancing act, that strategists perform to legitimise the calibrated combinations of action and politics in organisational strategy, equally needs nuanced, subtle and more complex forms of organisational communication. The study, therefore, makes the claim that complex adaptive systems and the characteristics of political organisations (as not being geared to action) are inherently broadened through the multiple dimensions of the practice turn and strategy as sub-text. The research confirmed that strategy as practice is a useful lens to understand strategy beyond the formally documented scripts and espoused pronouncements of strategy within organisational studies / Business Management / D.B.L.

Sexual abuse of children occurs at a very high rate and most of the victims are young children who have never been taught about the possibility of being abused. Victims of abuse are not equipped with appropriate knowledge and vocabulary to enable them to explain properly when they experience abuse. Acquisition of a vocabulary and understanding of the concepts of sexuality would assist children in recognizing, resisting and reporting sexual abuse. The young age at which abuse occurs makes the study at primary school level important and relevant. There is little literature on how child sexual abuse can be identified, addressed and handled by schools or what unique role the school should play in the management of child sexual abuse cases. Educators are in a position to identify sexually abused children because of their close and ongoing contact with school-going children. Therefore, young children place a great deal of trust in their teachers and look to them for protection when they feel unsafe. Teachers are trained to observe changes in the appearance and progress of individual children. Therefore, they can also assist in uncovering and reacting appropriately to disclosures of abuse. The study was conducted in poor, disadvantaged, rural primary schools in a part of the North West Province. There is a limited access to social work services in rural areas and therefore, educators are considered to be appropriate people to educate children about sexual abuse issues because children spend most of their time at school. There is a relationship between educators, parents and children which creates a proper channel of communicating information about sexual abuse of children. That is, educators are in a position not only to educate but also to reinforce what children have learnt at home. Educators' role have been limited in the identification and dealing with sexual abuse cases and therefore, there is a need to empower them with appropriate knowledge and skills to enable them to handle sexual abuse cases at school level successfully. / Psychology / M. A. (Psychology)

The problem investigated in this research is the ongoing crime threat and the extreme risks which impact negatively on the sustainability of the Rosslyn Industry - the industrial hub of Tshwane in the Gauteng Provence of South Africa. Businesses in Rosslyn are desperate for a solution that will mitigate these crime threats and risks, and ensure the future sustainability of this important industrial community. An intervention model is urgently required to prevent this type of crime, not only as a short term solution but as a sustainable long term intervention. This research study initiated the collaboration required for the successful implementation of a Crime Prevention Intervention Model (CPIM) in the Rosslyn industrial environment. The intended crime prevention model has been designed in such a way that it addresses the entire environment of crime that prevails in the Rosslyn area involving both the offender and the victim. This design is rooted in the ontology of Environmental Criminology and more specific on the applied epistemology of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED). Participants in this project are representatives who are responsible for all security functions in both big businesses and small enterprises. And with their dedicated assistance the research findings disclosed the current crime status of the Rosslyn environment regarding the threat, risk, security vulnerabilities, controls and needs: • Crime and its causal factors, in Rosslyn, are rife and no noteworthy action has been implemented to mitigate these threats. • Collaboration between Rosslyn role players (neighbours, local government and law enforcement) is for all purposes non-existent. • And to complicate matters even more, knowledge of how to effectively mitigate crime is limited and handicapped by the re-active physical security methods currently being used. • The implication of these findings is that the status quo will eventually render business in Rosslyn unsustainable. Thus a CPIM in Rosslyn is inevitable. What was crucial to this research and to the CTPED design is the detailed sourcing of accurate data addressing the experiences and the needs the respondents identified in the current Rosslyn crime situation concerning; status, the threat, risk, security, vulnerabilities and controls. In order to achieve this level of data sourcing and assimilation, the essential features of the research method were based on a mixed approach where quantitative and qualitative methods were implemented in parallel. The diverse fields, sources and respondent mix required for a Rosslyn Industry CPIM also necessitated a MIT (Multi,-Inter,-Trans,-Disciplinary) approach. This MIT requirement is successfully facilitated through the applied criminological CPTED approach. The CPIM is based on the combined outcomes of the following three research fields: • Field-one: Environmental criminology theories are researched through an in-depth literature review to demonstrate the criminological grounding of crime prevention and to guide its application through the development of an applied CPTED SUITE. • Field-two: Supply Chain Security (SCS) are researched through an in-depth literature review to establish its criminological relevance and applications. SCS requirements are identified and built into the Field-Three research process and tested for relevance and for incorporation in the CPTED SUITE. • Field-three: Based on a mixed research process, using a custom designed Criminological Risk Analyses tool incorporating scheduled interviews and questionnaires, the crime and needs profile of the Rosslyn Industry are uncovered and analysed. The results are filtered through the CPTED SUITE to indicate the correct criminological approach for mitigating the identified problems and needs. Even though this study takes an applied crime preventative approach, the criminological-philosophical mould of crime prevention is imperative for the effective application of the CPTED. Security and crime prevention training, planning and application, without this approach will remain underdeveloped and outdated. Finally the underlying intention of this research is for this Crime Prevention Intervention Model (CPIM) to be adapted and implemented and to serve as a guide or a benchmark for security practitioners in any industrial environment that has the same crime threats and crime risk challenges. / Criminology and Security Science / D. Litt. et Phil. (Criminology)

Thesis (MScBosb)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The characteristics and total fuel load of the forest floor (FF) and harvest residue (HR) are needed to develop tools that can be used for fuel load management, fire risk analysis and fire behaviour prediction for P. patula grown in the summer rainfall area of South Africa (SA). Forest floor depth, mass and ash-free mass were measured and there was generally a greater range in depth under sawtimber (ST) stands than under pulpwood (PLP) stands. Forest floor loads, prior to ashing, ranged from 21 - 168 t ha-1 and 27 - 72 t ha-1, for ST and PLP stands, respectively and loads increased linearly with stand age. Sawtimber and PLP stands were analysed together, which resulted in a significant correlation between depth and mass (r2 = 0.78, n = 31). A loss on ignition procedure carried out on sub-samples of the FF improved the relationship between the FF depth and the ash-free mass for the different stands, and provided a more accurate model for the prediction of mass from depth. A multiple regression analysis revealed that age, altitude and mean annual precipitation (MAP) provided the best subset and accounted for 72% of the variation in the FF mass observed. The effect of increasing FF load and increasing moisture content on the fireline intensity (FLI) was examined using the fire behaviour prediction programme, BehavePlus. Harvest residue was quantified and characterised in terms of fuel size classes, under current silvicultural regimes for ST and PLP, for the development of fuel models for this species over its planted range in SA. An investigation into the proportion (by mass) of the 1- (0.0 - 0.6 cm), 10- (0.6 – 2.5 cm), 100- (2.5 – 7.6 cm) and 1000-hr (> 7.6 cm diameter) fuel classes of the total HR mass indicated that there was a significant difference between the mass of the 1-, 10- and 1000-hr fuel classes of the two silvicultural regimes, and no significant difference for the 100-hr fuel class. Two fuel models for P. patula HR and two models for standing timber were developed using the new model (NEWMDL) programme of BEHAVE and tested in BehavePlus. Nutrient concentrations were used with FF layer and HR size class load data to estimate the quantities of nutrients held in the fuel and to describe nutrient distributions in the fuel complex. Significant differences in the nutrient concentration of the FF layers and fuel components were observed which has important implications for fuel management. The concentration of N determined in this study, relative to that determined in other similar studies on P. patula was low. Forest floor loads were predicted and nutrient pools calculated for typical ST and PLP stands at both low and high altitude to provide insight into the nutrient distributions within the fuel complex. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die karaktereienskappe en totale brandstoflading van die bosvloer (FF) en kaalkap oorskot (HR) word benodig om instrumente te ontwikkel wat gebruik kan word vir brandstoflading bestuur, brandgevaar ontleding en brandgedrag voorspelling vir P. patula, wat in die somer reënvalgebied van Suid-Afrika groei. Die bosvloer diepte, massa en asvrye massa is gemeet en daar was oor die algemeen ‘n groter variasie in diepte onder saaghout (ST) opstande as onder pulphout (PLP) opstande. Die bosvloerladings, voor verassing, het varieer van 21 – 168 t ha-1 en 27 – 72 t ha-1 vir ST en PLP opstande respektiwelik. Ladings het linieêr vermeerder met opstand ouderdom. Saaghout en PLP opstande is saam geanaliseer en het tot ‘n betekenisvolle korrelasie gelei tussen diepte en massa (r2 = 0.78, n = 31). ‘n Verliestydens- ontbranding prosedure is uitgevoer op die FF monsters en het die verhouding tussen FF diepte en die asvrye massa van die verskillende opstande verbeter. Dit het ook gelei tot akkurater model vir die voorspelling van massa vanaf diepte. ‘n Veelvoudige regressie analise het aan die lig gebring dat ouderdom, hoogte en gemiddelde jaarlikse reënval (MAP) die beste sub-groep verskaf, en het 72% van die variasie in die FF massa verklaar. Ondersoek is ingestel op die effek van toenemende FF lading en toenemende voginhoud op die brandlyn intensiteit (FLI) deur die brandgedrag program, BehavePlus, toe te pas. Die kaalkap oorskot is gekwantifiseer en gekarakteriseer volgens brandstof grootteklasse, onder die huidige boskultuurstelsels vir ST en PLP, vir die ontwikkeling van brandstofmodelle vir hierdie spesie oor die betrokke groeistreek in SA. ‘n Ondersoek in die verhouding (volgens massa) van die 1- (0.0 – 0.6 cm), 10- (0.6 – 2.5 cm), 100- (2.5 – 7.6 cm) en 1000-uur (> 7.6 cm deursnee) brandstofklasse van die totale HR massa het aangedui dat daar ‘n betekenisvolle verskil is tussen die massas van die 1-, 10- en 1000-uur brandstofklasse van die twee boskultuurstelsels, en geen betekenisvolle verskil vir die 100- uur brandstofklas nie. Twee brandstofmodelle is ontwikkel vir P. patula HR en twee modelle vir staande hout deur gebruik te maak van die nuwe model (NEWMDL) program van BEHAVE en getoets in BehavePlus. Voedingstof konsentrasies is gebruik, tesame met die FF laag en HR klasgrootte ladingdata, om die voedingstof inhoud van die brandstof te skat en om die voedingstof verspreiding te beskryf in die brandstofkompleks. Betekenisvolle verskille is waargeneem in die voedingstof konsentrasies van die FF lae en brandstof komponente wat belangrike implikasies inhou vir brandstofbestuur. Die konsentrasie wat vir N in hierdie studie bepaal is, was laag relatief tot ander soortgelyke studies vir P. patula. Die bosvloer ladings is voorspel en voedingstofpoele bereken vir tipiese ST en PLP opstande vir beide lae en hoë hoogtes om insig te verkry, sodat insig verkry kon word in die voedingstof verspreidings binne die brandstofkompleks.