Thesis (PhD (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / Please refer to full text to view abstract.

Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006. / The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thesis is concerned with the characteristics of cycles in financial variables within the South African context. The first chapter presents a taxonomy of the concepts of classical, deviation and growth rate cycles in order to establish a simple reference framework for cycle concepts. At this point the concept of a ‘turning point cycle’ is introduced, with particular focus on the non-parametric method of turning point identification, following Harding and Pagan’s recent translation of the original work of Burns and Mitchell into a modern version with a sound statistical basis. With the turning points identified the dissertation proceeds to an exposition of descriptive measures of expansion and contraction phases. The second chapter entails an empirical report on descriptive results for amplitude and duration characteristics of cycle phases in the different financial variables, with separate reports for classical cycles and growth rate cycles. Chapter two concludes with a series of tables in which the behaviour of cycle phases are compared for different financial variables. Part II considers financial variables as potential leading indicators of the business cycle in South Africa. Chapter 3 introduces the concept ‘leading indicator’ to this end and distinguishes the original concept from modern, econometric versions. The chapter then introduces a framework for evaluating potential leading indicators, which emphasises two requirements: firstly, broad co-movement between cycles in the proposed leading indicator and the business cycle and, secondly, stability in the number of months between turning points in cycles of the proposed indicator and business cycle turning points. The capacity of potential indicators to meet these criteria is measured via the concordance statistic and the ‘lead profile’ respectively. Chapter four provides the statistical basis for the concordance statistic, after which the empirical results (presented separately for classical and growth rate cycles) are presented. The fifth chapter presents the statistical test for the stability of the interval by which cyclical turning points in the potential indicator lead turning points in the business cycle. Empirical results are presented in both tabular form (the ‘lead profile’) and graphical form (the ‘lead profile chart’). As far as can be determined, this analysis represents the first application of the ‘lead profile’ evaluation to financial variables. Chapter six concludes by presenting a summary of the results and a brief comparison with findings from an econometric study of leading indicators for South Africa.

This study focused on the possible determinants of operational efficiency at the University of Venda, which was premised on the extent to which stakeholders are involved in the strategic planning of the institution. The aim of the study was to establish the stakeholders’ involvement in the strategic planning of the University of Venda. Structured questionnaires were used to collect data during August and October 2011. The study was conducted at the University of Venda, Vhembe District in the Limpopo Province. A non-probability sampling procedure was used to select respondents. The results revealed that whilst the stakeholders seem to be involved in the process of the strategic planning, the extent of stakeholders’ involvement has largely remained contentious. The results further indicate that not all stakeholders are involved in the strategic planning process at the University of Venda. Although stakeholders are invited to participate, the process of strategic planning is absolutely dominated by the management cadre, reducing the rest participants into the doldrums. Those who are directly affected by the strategic plan are least involved in the process of the planning. Because of the lack of involvement and communication regarding the strategic planning process, the findings reveal that the majority of stakeholders were de-motivated in that regard, culminating in their lack-lustre approach towards the implementation of the orchestrated plan. The resultant lack of buy-in by the affected stakeholders, essentially the internal stakeholders (staff members and the student community), eventually hamper the actualisation of the targeted goals of the strategic plans. These results suggest that the strategic plan review should be an on-going process in order to update and involve the university community of the strategic planning processes. Proper feedback and communication on strategic planning processes should be implemented. More importantly, the stakeholders’ involvement and consultation on the strategic planning should be galvanized, since most of the staff members and students seem to be unaware of the strategic planning process at the University of Venda, let alone its contents and aspirations. / Business Management / M. Tech.(Business Administration)

D.Phil. / Despite a sharp decline in the birthrate, recent projections show that the population groups in the RSA are still expected to grow rapidly in the future. Since its inception in 1974, the National Family Planning Programme has been very successful, and by 1980 more than a million women from all population groups were practising contraception. Although the programme planners set as their goal an annual increase in this figure, it was not clear what the effect of a given increase would be on population growth in the RSA. In this study recent population projections for the RSA were used as the point of departure, and it was established what the increased family planning input would have to be if the prospect of reduced population sizes were held out. Furthermore, it was assumed in the models used that changes would take place over a period of time in respect of the average period of use of contraceptives, and that there would be a shift to more effective methods. The TABRAP and PROJTARG models used for these analyses were extremely suitable for experimentation so that an in-depth study of the family planning situation of Asians, Coloureds and Blacks could be made. There are certain shortcomings in these models, however, and a new model incorporating characteristics from both models was developed to conduct projections up to the year 2010.

The study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle coincident indicator (BC) regressed against, the All Share Price Index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in South Africa. The results also indicated that business cycles are positively related to the lagged variable of the coincident indicator and money supply. In addition, the findings also reveal that BC is negatively related to interest rates and the real effective exchange rate.

Weather-related delays in the aviation sector will always occur, however, through effective delay management and improved weather forecasting, the impact and duration of delays can be reduced. The research examined the type of weather that caused departure delays, due to adverse weather at the departure station, namely O. R. Tambo International Airport (ORTIA), over the period 2010 to 2013. It was found that the most significant weather that causes such delays are thunderstorms, followed by fog. Other noteworthy elements are rainfall, without the influence of other weather elements, and icing. It was also found that the accuracy of a weather forecast does not impact on the number of departure delays, and thus departure delays due to weather at the departure station are largely unavoidable. However, the length and impact of such delays can be reduced through improved planning. The study highlights that all weather-related delays can be reduced by improved weather forecasts, effective assessment of the weather forecast, and collaborative and timely decision making. A weather impact index system was designed for ORTIA and recommendations for delay reductions are made. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)

This study set out to explore how Official Development Assistance was practised in South Africa. An exploratory narrative design was followed to uncover the ‘strategy in the skin’ of strategy practitioners in the unit of analysis and to respond, therefore, to the research questions. This study has contributed to the body of knowledge in that it has brought together an alternative confluence of three theoretical perspectives of strategy as practice; complex adaptive systems and organisational hypocrisy and has explored the impact of the practice lens on these standpoints. While there has been extensive research on each of the theoretical perspectives, there has not yet been a study that has drawn together the three perspectives in relation to an empirical unit of analysis such as Official Development Assistance practices and practitioners. The study responded to a knowledge gap in relation to how public sector organisations, such as government units and the strategy practitioners of such units, practice strategy beyond the reified, formalised conceptions of strategy and in relation to their inhabiting complex, political organisational systems. The study arrived at two central theoretical findings. Firstly, that strategising represents a calibration of strategic practices towards strategic outcomes through the activities of complex adaptive practitioners v within the more politically inclined organisation. Secondly, that beyond the text of strategy, there is sub-text that is equally part of the micro strategy towards strategic outcomes.The skilful and sometimes delicate balancing act, that strategists perform to legitimise the calibrated combinations of action and politics in organisational strategy, equally needs nuanced, subtle and more complex forms of organisational communication. The study, therefore, makes the claim that complex adaptive systems and the characteristics of political organisations (as not being geared to action) are inherently broadened through the multiple dimensions of the practice turn and strategy as sub-text. The research confirmed that strategy as practice is a useful lens to understand strategy beyond the formally documented scripts and espoused pronouncements of strategy within organisational studies / Business Management / Thesis (D. B. L.)

This study set out to explore the strategising practices of middle managers and thereby expand the body of knowledge in terms of middle management practices in strategising in general, and makes an original contribution at the frontiers of middle management practices in a university context in South Africa. Although some research has been done on middle managers and strategy, a knowledge gap still exists, especially regarding strategising in emerging economies, such as South Africa. More specifically, the actions of middle managers at universities are open for exploration. Universities are increasingly exposed to new challenges in a competitive environment due to declining state funding, changing student demographics, new technological developments and increased market pressures. The sustainability of universities is also threatened by changes inside the universities, such as the drive for corporatisation and a changing internal focus. The way universities respond to and pre-empt dealing with these challenges will influence the sustainability and competitiveness of the university and subsequently the nations it serves. However, very little is known about the university managers who are powerful in terms of the administrative systems and decision processes. In order to understand strategy work viii and to know what enables or constrains it, it is necessary to look at middle managers at universities. This research puts forward three main arguments: firstly, strategy is dispersed throughout the entire organisation and includes middle managers’ strategising activities. Secondly, a need exists for practically relevant research founded in the organisational realities. Thirdly, universities present a relevant context within which to study strategising practices. An exploratory qualitative case study was followed to answer the research questions. Findings indicate that university middle managers, who operate within a machine bureaucracy, create systems within systems in order to cope with the organisational demands. Middle managers are mostly responsible for strategy implementation and the support role of university managers is prominent. Findings also indicate that the strategy loses its meaning and in an environment where the strategy textual artefacts and talk are abundant. In such an environment compliance takes precedence over buy-in. Finally, this study identified the enablers of and constraints on the strategy work of university middle managers. This research confirmed that strategy and strategising are human actions and confirmed that knowledge of what people do in relation to the strategies of organisations is required. / Economics / D. Com. (Business Management)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The relationship between asset markets and economic growth is well documented in economic literature. Harvey (1989), conducted a study of the relationship between interest rate spreads, share market prices and real economic growth in the USA. He developed a model to forecast real economic growth using interest rate spreads and share market prices and concluded that interest rate spreads produced superior forecasts to those based on share market information. He further established that the forecasts obtained from his simple model, which made no provision for serial correlation, compared favourably with those of leading economic forecasters in the USA. Van der Mescht (1991) undertook a similar study based on interest rate spreads and share market prices in South Africa. He concluded that there were no significant differences between the capital market and share market as predictors of economic growth in South Africa when provision was made in Harvey's model for the effects of serial correlation. His results indicated that both the capital and share markets were able to explain more than 65 percent of the variation in economic growth over the period of his study and that the forecasts were able to accurately predict the turning points in the economy and compared favourably with other leading economic forecasters. A similar study to Van der Mescht's using updated South African data found that in general the conclusions reached by Van der Mescht remain valid. A difference which is evident, however, is that, whereas previously, there was little difference between the results of the interest rate spread and share market index model, the interest rate spread model produced better results over the period of this study (1981 - 1998). / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwantskap tussen die kapitaal- en aandelemark en ekonomiese groei is deeglik in die ekonomiese literatuur ge-dokumenteer. Harvey (1989) het navorsing gedoen oor die verwantskap tussen die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse, aandelepryse en reële ekonomiese groei in die VSA. Hy het 'n vooruitskattingsmodel ontwikkel vir ekonomiese groei, gebaseer op die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse en aandelepryse en het tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse 'n beter vooruitskatter van ekonomiese groei is as die aandelemark, en dat sy model, wat geen voorsiening vir outokorrelasie maak nie, goed vergelyk met ander ekonometriese modelle wat ekonomiese groei in die VSA vooruitskat. Van der Mescht (1991) het 'n soortgelyke studie, gebaseer op die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse en aandelepyse in Suid Afrika, onderneem. Hy het tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat daar geen betekenisvolle verskil is tussen die kapitaal en aandelemark as vooruitskatters van ekonomiese groei indien daar vir outokorrelasie in die modelle voorsiening gemaak word nie. Sy resultate dui aan dat die kapitaal- en aandelemark meer as 65 persent van die persentasieverandering in die ekonomiese groei kon verklaar oor die termyn van sy studie, dat dit akkurate vooruitskattings van die draaipunte in die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie gelewer het, en dat dit gunstig vergelyk met ander ekonomiese vooruitskatters. 'n Soortgelyke studie as die van Van der Mescht is onderneem, met die jongste inligting omtrent termynstruktuur van rentekoerse en aandelepryse in Suid Afrika. In die algemeen is die gevolgtrekkings van Van der Mescht steeds van toepassing. Daar is egter aangetoon dat, waar daar voorheen geen betekenisvolle verskil tussen die kapitaal- en aandelemark as vooruitskatters van ekonomiese groei was nie, die termynstruktuur van rentekoerse beter resultate oor die termyn van hierdie studie gelewer het. (1981 -1998).

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / In many spheres of life, humanity is finally coming to terms with the fact that our world has changed beyond the limits of our industrial-era ways of thinking. Linear and reductionist approaches to strategy and problem-solving are no longer sufficient for dealing with the realities of our modern world, which are characterised by the certainty of change; not least of all due to technological change and environmental factors such as resource scarcity and global warming. Some of the changes that humanity has experienced include; • Uncertainty about the magnitude and direction of the changes; • Difficulty of visualising contexts and options in an increasingly complex environment, where many of the parts are interdependent, and where the knowledge requirements increasingly transcend traditional disciplines; • Serious and possibly irrevocable consequences of errors in decision-making; • The ability of humanity to adapt and respond to change. Living in sustainable harmony with itself and the biosphere requires that we use systems thinking to mediate between the need for action and the awareness of complexity. These aspects require that we adopt a continuous and adaptive mode of strategy and development, enabling us to shape a better future. As South Africa enters its sixteenth year of democracy, the challenges of unemployment, scarcity of critical skills, a poor education system, growing crime levels and perennial poverty, continue to confront both the state and civil society alike. This study seeks to map the South African government’s long-term and short-term planning frameworks that guide the planning processes and timeframes for all government departments. While the purpose is to determine the long-term planning methodologies and techniques of both Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), these are informed by the response to the national government planning frameworks, such as the Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) and the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF). The National Planning Commission was established specifically to perform the long-term planning function of government. It is against this background that the researcher examines the long-term planning processes and methodologies of selected DFIs and SOEs, using the Environmental Scanning and Literature Review methodologies. Environmental scanning and literature review methodologies were used to gain a high-level understanding of the long-term planning processes of the national government. A literature review of current and previous long-term planning processes using scenario planning (by Eskom and the CSIR) and foresight (by the CSIR) have provided an indication that, although long-term planning is a desired goal, it is not widely practiced and where it is practiced the results and related impacts are not yet known. A survey of selected SOEs and DFIs was conducted to determine the nature and extent of long range planning undertaken by each of these bodies, as well as the methodologies that were used. The aim was to determine whether foresight tools such as systems thinking and/or scenario planning have been used in the past and what results have been achieved. Without this information, it would not be possible to identify the gaps that exist in the longterm planning frameworks of these entities. The results of the survey revealed that the concept of long-term planning using methodologies such as foresight, scenario planning and systems thinking does not enjoy wide awareness amongst the SOEs, who reported that they do not engage in long-term planning. The study concludes that a need exists for a formal well structured framework for the use of scenario planning and systems thinking as part of the foresight long-term planning methodology in South Africa’s state-owned enterprises. An ideal framework for the introduction and use of long-term planning methodologies is needed in order to seek an answer to the following question: what combination of thinking and planning tools, drawn from Foresight, Scenario Planning and systems thinking could be brought together to create and ideal framework for the introduction and use of long-term planning methodologies at state-owned-enterprises? The study proposes a Six Phase – Foresight and Scenario Planning Framework for longterm planning. This proposed new framework suggests the use of foresight tools such scenario planning and systems thinking. Exposure by the author to multiple foresight driven processes served to provide real life experiences of the potency of the use of these tools in combination during the different phases of the proposed framework. In using the proposed framework, executives at SOEs and DFIs should be able to cope with planning in an environment of uncertainty, while carrying the stakeholders along with them on the journey. The six phases of the process have, in the experience of the researcher, offered tangible benefits to a variety of institutions during the past three years. More than any other benefits, foresight loses its mystic and it becomes easy and accessible to everyone. Action planning, flowing from the foresight process becomes a genuine exercise that impacts on the short to medium term strategic planning taking into account the probable effects of emerging trends, driving forces and likely breakthroughs that leaders in SOEs and DFIs can bring about as they strive to create their preferred future.