[pt] Essa tese apresenta uma abordagem alternativa para orçamento de capital, denominada Métodos Modificados de Avaliação de Projetos de Investimentos em Ambiente Fuzzy, para avaliação de projetos em condições de incerteza. O desenvolvimento da abordagem proposta está dividido em duas fases: na primeira fase, é estabelecido um modelo determinístico generalizado que prevê explicitamente a utilização dos custos de oportunidade associados com os fluxos de caixa intermediários de um projeto de investimento empresarial. Os pressupostos implícitos dos métodos modificados da taxa interna de retorno e do valor presente líquido são incluídos nos métodos do índice de lucratividade e do tempo de retorno do investimento total. Os indicadores resultantes são o índice de lucratividade modificado e o tempo de retorno do investimento modificado. Essa abordagem unificada tem a propriedade de coincidir as decisões de aceitação / rejeição de projetos de investimentos de mesmos horizontes de vida e escalas com as do valor presente líquido modificado e, portanto, maximizam a riqueza do acionista. Na segunda fase, números fuzzy triangulares são utilizados para representar as incertezas das variáveis de um projeto de investimento: os fluxos de caixa, as taxas de financiamento e de reinvestimento e a taxa de desconto ajustada ao risco. Os indicadores fuzzy resultantes são o valor presente líquido modificado, a taxa interna de retorno modificada, o índice de lucratividade modificado e o tempo de retorno do investimento modificado. A aplicação de custos de oportunidades e de critérios difusos para a atribuição dos valores das variáveis permite obter resultados mais realistas e compatíveis com as condições de mercado. Devido à complexidade dos cálculos envolvidos, novas funções financeiras de uso amigável são desenvolvidas utilizando Visual Basic for Applications do MS-Excel: três, para avaliação de projetos em condições de certeza (MVPL, MIL e MTRI) e quatro para avaliação em condições de incerteza (MVPLfuzzy, MTIRfuzzy, MILfuzzy e MTRIfuzzy). A principal contribuição dessa tese é a elaboração de uma nova abordagem unificada para orçamento de capital em condições de incerteza que enfatiza os pontos fortes dos métodos modificados do valor presente líquido e da taxa interna de retorno, enquanto contorna os conflitos e as desvantagens individuais dos métodos convencionais. Os resultados mostram que os métodos propostos são mais vantajosos e mais simples de se utilizar que outros métodos de avaliação de investimentos em condições de incerteza. / [en] This thesis presents an alternative approach to capital budgeting, named Fuzzy Modified Methods of Capital Budgeting, for evaluating investment projects under uncertainties. The development of the proposed approach is divided into two phases: in the first stage, a general deterministic model that explicitly provides for the use of the opportunity costs associated with the interim cash flows of a project is established. The implicit assumptions of the modified internal rate of return and modified net present value methods are included in the index of profitability and in the total payback period. The resulting indicators are the modified index of profitability and the modified total payback period. This unified approach has the property to match the decisions of acceptance / rejection of investment projects with same horizons of life and same scales with the decisions of the modified net present value method and therefore maximize shareholder wealth. In the second phase, triangular fuzzy numbers are used to represent the uncertainties of the project variables: cash flows and reinvestment, financing and risk-adjusted discount rates. The resulting indicators are the fuzzy modified net present value, the fuzzy modified internal rate of return, the fuzzy modified index of profitability and the fuzzy modified total payback period. The application of opportunity costs and fuzzy criteria for determining the variables allows obtaining more realists and consistent results with the market conditions. Due to the complexity of the calculations involved, new MS-Excel financial functions are developed by using Visual Basic for Applications: three functions for evaluating projects under conditions of certainty (MVPL, MIL and MTRI) and four functions for evaluating projects under uncertainties (MVPLfuzzy, MTIRfuzzy, MILfuzzy and MTRIfuzzy). The main contribution of this thesis is to develop a unifying approach to capital budgeting under uncertainty that emphasizes the strengths of the methods of modified net present value and modified internal rate of return, while bypassing the individual conflicts and drawbacks of the conventional methods. Results show that the proposed methods are more advantageous and simpler to use than other methods of investment appraisal under uncertainties.

O Gerenciamento Ágil de Projetos é uma abordagem útil para projetos com alto grau de complexidade e incerteza. Duas de suas características são: o envolvimento do consumidor nas tomadas de decisão sobre o projeto do produto; e, o uso de uma visão do produto, artefato que representa e comunica as características prioritárias e fundamentais do produto a ser desenvolvido. Há métodos para apoiar a criação da visão do produto, mas eles apresentam deficiências em operacionalizar o envolvimento do consumidor final. Por outro lado, existe a Engenharia Kansei, uma metodologia que permite capturar as necessidades de um grande número de consumidores e relacioná-las a características do produto. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo aprofundado da metodologia da Engenharia Kansei e analisa como essa pode ser útil para apoiar a descrição da visão do produto, no contexto do Gerenciamento Ágil de Projetos de produtos manufaturados. Em seguida, para verificar essa proposição, apresenta o desenvolvimento de um Sistema de Engenharia Kansei baseado na Teoria de Quantificação Tipo I, Aritmética Fuzzy, e Algoritmos Genéticos, testado para o projeto de uma caneta voltada a alunos de pós-graduação. Para execução do projeto foi utilizado um conjunto de métodos e procedimentos, tais como: revisão bibliográfica sistemática; desenvolvimento matemático; desenvolvimento computacional; e, estudo de caso. Analisa-se o Sistema de Engenharia Kansei proposto, e os resultados no caso aplicado, para averiguar seu potencial. Indica evidencias que o Sistema de Engenharia Kansei é capaz de gerar requisitos sobre configurações de produtos segundo a perspectiva do consumidor potencial, e que essas configurações são úteis para a formulação da visão do produto e na evolução desta visão no decorrer do projeto de produto. / The Agile Project Management is a useful approach for projects with high degree of complexity and uncertainty. Two of its singularities are: costumer involvement in decision making about the product design; and the use of a product vision, an artifact that represents and communicates the fundamental and high-priority features of the product to be developed. There are methods to support the creation of the product vision, but they have shortcomings in operationalizing the costumer involvement. On the other hand, there is the Kansei Engineering, a methodology to capture the needs of a large number of consumers and correlate them to product features. This paper presents a detailed study of the Kansei Engineering methodology and analyzes how this can be useful to support the description of the product vision, in the context of Agile Project Management of manufactured products. Then, to verify this proposition, it presents the development of a Kansei Engineering System based on Quantification Theory Type I, Fuzzy Arithmetic and Genetic Algorithms, tested for the design of a pen aimed at graduate students. To implement the project we used a set of methods and procedures, such as systematic literature review, mathematical development, computational development, and case study. It analyzes the proposed Kansei Engineering System and the results in the case study applied, to ascertain their potential. Evidence indicates that Kansei Engineering System is capable of generating requirements on product configurations from the perspective of the potential consumer, and that these configurations are useful for the description of the product vision and for the progression of this vision during the project of the product.

O Gerenciamento Ágil de Projetos é uma abordagem útil para projetos com alto grau de complexidade e incerteza. Duas de suas características são: o envolvimento do consumidor nas tomadas de decisão sobre o projeto do produto; e, o uso de uma visão do produto, artefato que representa e comunica as características prioritárias e fundamentais do produto a ser desenvolvido. Há métodos para apoiar a criação da visão do produto, mas eles apresentam deficiências em operacionalizar o envolvimento do consumidor final. Por outro lado, existe a Engenharia Kansei, uma metodologia que permite capturar as necessidades de um grande número de consumidores e relacioná-las a características do produto. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo aprofundado da metodologia da Engenharia Kansei e analisa como essa pode ser útil para apoiar a descrição da visão do produto, no contexto do Gerenciamento Ágil de Projetos de produtos manufaturados. Em seguida, para verificar essa proposição, apresenta o desenvolvimento de um Sistema de Engenharia Kansei baseado na Teoria de Quantificação Tipo I, Aritmética Fuzzy, e Algoritmos Genéticos, testado para o projeto de uma caneta voltada a alunos de pós-graduação. Para execução do projeto foi utilizado um conjunto de métodos e procedimentos, tais como: revisão bibliográfica sistemática; desenvolvimento matemático; desenvolvimento computacional; e, estudo de caso. Analisa-se o Sistema de Engenharia Kansei proposto, e os resultados no caso aplicado, para averiguar seu potencial. Indica evidencias que o Sistema de Engenharia Kansei é capaz de gerar requisitos sobre configurações de produtos segundo a perspectiva do consumidor potencial, e que essas configurações são úteis para a formulação da visão do produto e na evolução desta visão no decorrer do projeto de produto. / The Agile Project Management is a useful approach for projects with high degree of complexity and uncertainty. Two of its singularities are: costumer involvement in decision making about the product design; and the use of a product vision, an artifact that represents and communicates the fundamental and high-priority features of the product to be developed. There are methods to support the creation of the product vision, but they have shortcomings in operationalizing the costumer involvement. On the other hand, there is the Kansei Engineering, a methodology to capture the needs of a large number of consumers and correlate them to product features. This paper presents a detailed study of the Kansei Engineering methodology and analyzes how this can be useful to support the description of the product vision, in the context of Agile Project Management of manufactured products. Then, to verify this proposition, it presents the development of a Kansei Engineering System based on Quantification Theory Type I, Fuzzy Arithmetic and Genetic Algorithms, tested for the design of a pen aimed at graduate students. To implement the project we used a set of methods and procedures, such as systematic literature review, mathematical development, computational development, and case study. It analyzes the proposed Kansei Engineering System and the results in the case study applied, to ascertain their potential. Evidence indicates that Kansei Engineering System is capable of generating requirements on product configurations from the perspective of the potential consumer, and that these configurations are useful for the description of the product vision and for the progression of this vision during the project of the product.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-17T14:52:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Heitor Hugo Dias Mangueira.pdf: 499392 bytes, checksum: 0ab64bec14057aedb36d224a57047e6d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-07-05 / In this work, the spread of the uncertainties of wind power generation systems on a network is evaluated. The study uses a flow of power foggy multi-linearized. / Neste trabalho, a propagação das incertezas dos sistemas de geração eólica em rede é avaliada. O estudo utiliza um fluxo de potência nebuloso multi-linearizado.

This thesis deals with the application of Markov chains for the production of concrete products. The theoretical part is focused on clarifying the concepts of risk management and describes the procedures for dealing with classical Markov chains. There are presented basics of fuzzy logic and finally there is explained the procedure using fuzzy logic in calculating of classical Markov chains in the subsection entitled Fuzzy Markov chains. The practical part describes production process, namely concrete pavements. On this production process is applied knowledge from the theoretical part and there is a comparison and evaluation of two methods of Marcov chains calculation (classic and fuzzy approach).

<p>U ovoj tezi je definisana uop&scaron;tena konvolucija koja pripada domenu pseudo-analize i ima veliku primenu u mnogim matematičkim teorijama, npr. u proba-bilističkim metričkim prostorima, PDJ, teorijama odlučivanja, sistema, kontrole i fazi brojeva. Dokazane su bitne osobine ove operacije sa funkcijama. Dokazana je veza izmedju pseudo-konvolucija baziranih na poluprstenima različitih klasa Definisana je (5, C/)-konvolucija bazirana na uslovno distributivnom poluprstenu ([0,1], S, U)).Dat je jo&scaron; jedan vid uop&scaron;tenja konvolucije baziran na uop&scaron;tenim pseudo-operacijama.</p> / <p>In this thesis the generalized convolution have been defined. This operation with functions has applications in different mathematical theo&shy; ries, for example in Probabilistic Metric Spaces, PDE, System and Control Theory, Fuzzy numbers. Some basic properties of this operation has been proved, as well as connection between generalized convolutions based on dif&shy;ferent classes of semirings. (5, U)-convolution has been defined, as well as convolution based on generalized pseudo-operations.</p>

A fin de diseñar e implementar lenguajes de programación que tengan en cuenta el paradigma borroso modificaremos el lambda cálculo clásico, adjuntando a cada término un grado, y redefiniendo la beta-reducción, obteniendo que para que el nuevo cálculo verifique la propiedad de Church-Rosser la transmisión de los grados debe hacerse por medio de una función que sea una t-norma o s-conorma. Utilizando esta nueva herramienta diseñamos un lenguaje no determinista que satisface los requerimientos de la programación con datos borrosos. / With the aim of designing and implementing programming languages that take into account the fuzzy paradigm we will modify the classical lambda calculus by adding a degree to each term and by redefining the b-reduction. Thus, for the new calculus to verify the Church-Rosser property, the degree computed with can be made through a function that is a t-norm or an s-conorm. With this new tool we design a nondeterminist language that satisfies fuzzy dataprogramming requirements, and an example of its behaviour is shown.

Τα σύγχρονα πληροφοριακά συστήματα μάθησης τα οποία υποστηρίζουν εξ’ αποστάσεως εκπαίδευση, επιτρέπουν τη συστηματική διαχείριση του εκπαιδευτικού υλικού και υποστηρίζουν τις εκπαιδευτικές διαδικασίες των μαθημάτων. Τα συστήματα αυτά έχουν λειτουργικότητες όπως: η ανάρτηση ψηφιακού υλικού, η διεξαγωγή συζητήσεων, η ανάρτηση ασκήσεων-εργασιών, η πραγματοποίηση εξετάσεων και πολλές άλλες. Στόχος της συγκεκριμένης εργασίας είναι η διερεύνηση του χώρου των συστημάτων μάθησης τα οποία υποστηρίζουν εξ’ αποστάσεως εκπαίδευση καθώς επίσης και η παρουσίαση και η εφαρμογή μεθόδου αξιολόγησης τους, αξιολογώντας τα συστήματα σύμφωνα με μια λίστα λειτουργικών απαιτήσεων. Στο 1ο κεφάλαιο της διπλωματικής εργασίας γίνεται μια περιγραφή των βασικών εννοιών της εξ’αποστάσεως εκπαίδευσης καθώς επίσης και έννοιες που αφορούν τα συστήματα υποστήριξης μάθησης όπως:CBT, VLE, LMS, LCMS, CMS, Mobile Learning. Στο 2ο κεφάλαιο γίνεται μια επισκόπηση του χώρου των Συστημάτων Μάθησης Learning Course Management Systems (LCMS). Συγκεκριμένα γίνεται μία καταγραφή των χαρακτηριστικών των πιο δημοφιλών συστημάτων τόσο των εμπορικών όσο και των συστημάτων ανοικτού κώδικα με τη χρήση ενός κοινού template όπου καταγράφονται τα εξής στοιχεία: Κατασκευαστής, Σύντομη περιγραφή Λογισμικού, Πλεονεκτήματα (Δυνατά Σημεία ), Μειονεκτήματα (Αδυναμίες, Ελλείψεις), Πελατολόγιο, Τρέχουσα Έκδοση έτσι ώστε να μπορεί κάποιος εύκολα να τα συγκρίνει και να τα αξιολογήσει. Στο 3ο κεφάλαιο πραγματοποιείται ανάλυση απαιτήσεων ενός σύγχρονου συστήματος μάθησης έτσι ώστε να μπορεί να εφαρμοστεί η μεθοδολογία αξιολόγησης σε μια λίστα από χαρακτηριστικά-απαιτήσεις για τα συστήματα που παρουσιάζονται στο κεφάλαιο 2. Στο 4ο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζεται η μεθοδολογία Αξιολόγησης των συστημάτων μάθησης η οποία στηρίζεται στη θεωρία της ασαφούς λογικής. Η συγκεκριμένη μεθοδολογία εφαρμόστηκε σαν μελέτη περίπτωσης για την αξιολόγηση συστημάτων εκπαιδευτικών δραστηριοτήτων προκειμένου να βρεθεί το πλέον κατάλληλο σύστημα για τις ανάγκες του Ελληνικού Ανοικτού Πανεπιστημίου. Τέλος στο κεφάλαιο 5 πραγματοποιείται η εφαρμογή της μεθοδολογίας αξιολόγησης μεταξύ των συστημάτων μάθησης και παρουσιάζονται τα αποτελέσματα- συμπεράσματα που εξάγονται από την εφαρμογή της μεθόδου ενώ στο τελευταίο κεφάλαιο (6ο ) παρουσιάζονται τα συμπεράσματα της εργασίας. / Modern learning information systems are designed to support distance education and have many features to support learning sequence such as: management of educational material, tools for uploading projects in several kinds (documents, multimedia files), many kinds of quizzes, grades management, forums, reports wiz and many others. The aim of this master thesis is the investigation of available learning course management systems(LCMS), requirements analysis for LCMS and presentation and implementation of an evaluation methodology for LCMS based on a requirements list. In the first chapter of this thesis, we describe the basic concepts and definitions of e-Learning, as well as concepts relating to learning support systems such as: CBT(Computer Based Training), VLE(Virtual Learning Environment), LMS(Learning Management Systems), LCMS(Learning Course Management Systems), CMS (Course Management Systems), Mobile Learning etc. The second chapter contains an investigation in the area of Learning Course Management Systems (LCMS). We used a common template in order to describe the features of the most popular LCMS (either Open Source or Commercial). The template contains features like: Small Description of any LCMS (Software Manufacturer and History, Active Users and Installations, Database Requirements, Web Server, Manufacturer Clients, Current Stable Version), Strengths of the Software, Weaknesses of the Software, Available Mobile Version. This features have been chosen in order to become easy the comparison and after that the evaluation of the systems. The third chapter contains requirements analysis of a modern learning course management system so that the evaluation methodology can be applied to a specified list of features-requirements for the systems presented in chapter 2. In the fourth chapter there is the presentation of the evaluation methodology which uses a multicriteria technical analysis which belongs to the field of methods of Multi-Criteria Group-based Decision Making Techniques, while uses methods of (intuitionistic) fuzzy logic. This method exports the results using a technique TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution). In this chapter there is the theoretical description of the methodology which has been implemented as a case study for evaluating learning management systems in order to find the most suitable system for the needs of the Hellenic Open University(HOU). In Chapter 5 we will find the implementation steps of the methodology in order to exclude the most suitable LCMS for HOU and the final results(list of Systems). We will also find the conclusions of the implementation of this method. Finally the last chapter (6th) presents the final conclusions of the whole thesis and the added value this thesis offers in this field of research .