Data from insect studies may present different features. Univariate responses may be analyzed using generalized linear models (continuous and discrete data), survival models (time until event data), mixed effects models (longitudinal data), among other methods. These models may be used to analyse data from experiments which assess complex ecological processes, such as competition and predation. In that sense, computational tools are useful for researchers in several fields, e.g., insect biology and physiology, applied ecology and biological control. Using different datasets from entomology as motivation, as well as other types of datasets for illustration purposes, this work intended to develop new modelling frameworks and goodness-of-fit assessment tools. We propose accelerated failure rate mixed models with simultaneous location and scale modelling with regressors to analyse time-until-attack data from a choice test experiment. We use the exponential, Weibull and exponentiated-Weibull models, and assess goodness-of-fit using half-normal plots with simulation envelopes. These plots are the subject of an entire Chapter on an R package, called hnp, developed to implement them. We use datasets from different types of experiments to illustrate the use of these plots and the package. A bivariate extension to the N-mixture modelling framework is proposed to analyse longitudinal count data for two species from the same food web that may interact directly or indirectly, and example datasets from ecological studies are used. An advantage of this modelling framework is the computation of an asymmetric correlation coefficient, which may be used by ecologists to study the degree of association between species. The jointNmix R package was also developed to implement the estimation process for these models. Finally, we propose a goodness-of-fit assessment tool for bivariate models, analogous to the half-normal plot with a simulation envelope, and illustrate the approach with simulated data and insect competition data. This tool is also implemented in an R package, called bivrp. All software developed in this thesis is made available freely on the Comprehensive R Archive Network. / Dados provenientes de estudos com insetos podem apresentar características diferentes. Respostas univariadas podem ser analisadas utilizando-se modelos lineares generalizados (dados contínuos e discretos), modelos de análise de sobrevivência (dados de tempo até ocorrência de um evento), modelos de efeitos mistos (dados longitudinais), dentre outros métodos. Esses modelos podem ser usados para analisar dados provenientes de experimentos que avaliam processos ecológicos complexos, como competição e predação. Nesse sentido, ferramentas computacionais são úteis para pesquisadores em diversos campos, por exemplo, biologia e fisiologia de insetos, ecologia aplicada e controle biológico. Utilizando diferentes conjuntos de dados entomológicos como motivação, assim como outros tipos de dados para ilustrar os métodos, este trabalho teve como objetivos desenvolver novos modelos e ferramentas para avaliar a qualidade do ajuste. Foram propostos modelos de tempo de vida acelerado mistos, com modelagem simultânea dos parâmetros de locação e de escala com regressores, para analisar dados de tempo até ataque de um experimento que avaliou escolha de predadores. Foram utilizados modelos exponencial, Weibull e Weibull-exponenciado, e a qualidade do ajuste foi avaliada utilizando gráficos meio-normais com envelope de simulação. Esses gráficos são o assunto de um Capítulo inteiro sobre um pacote para o software R, chamado hnp, desenvolvido para implementá-los. Foram utilizados conjuntos de dados de diferentes tipos de experimentos para ilustrar o uso desses gráficos e do pacote. Uma extensão bivariada para os modelos chamados \"N-mixture\" foi proposta para analisar dados longitudinais de contagem para duas espécies pertencentes à mesma teia trófica, que podem interagir direta e indiretamente, e conjuntos de dados provenientes de estudos ecológicos são usados para ilustrar a abordagem. Uma vantagem dessa estratégica de modelagem é a obtenção de um coeficiente de correlação assimétrico, que pode ser utilizado por ecologistas para inferir acerca do grau de associação entre espécies. O pacote jointNmix foi desenvolvido para implemetar o processo de estimação para esses modelos. Finalmente, foi proposta uma ferramenta de avaliação de qualidade do ajuste para modelos bivariados, análoga ao gráfico meio-normal com envelope de simulação, e a metodologia _e ilustrada com dados simulados e dados de competição de insetos. Essa ferramenta está também implementada em um pacote para o R, chamado bivrp. Todo o software desenvolvido nesta tese está disponível, gratuitamente, na Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2017-04-25T14:30:32Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertacao_Lelio_Alejandro_Arias_Vizcaino.pdf: 1217481 bytes, checksum: 3e169ccf7afc8c3a244b8cc4a07c9cbf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-25T14:30:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertacao_Lelio_Alejandro_Arias_Vizcaino.pdf: 1217481 bytes, checksum: 3e169ccf7afc8c3a244b8cc4a07c9cbf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-05 / FACEPE / entre as principais metodologias estatísticas, a análise de regressão é uma das formas mais efetivas para modelar dados. Neste sentido, a análise de diagnóstico é imprescindível para determinar o que poder ter acontecido no processo gerador dos dados caso os pressupostos impostos a este não sejam plausíveis. Uma das ferramentas mais úteis em diagnóstico é a avaliação dos resíduos. Neste trabalho, propomos um novo resíduo para as classes de modelos de regressão linear e não linear baseados na família exponencial com dispersão variável (Smyth (1989)). A proposta permite incorporar de forma simultânea informações relativas aos submodelos da média e da dispersão sem fazer uso de matrizes de projeção para sua padronização. Resultados de simulação e de aplicações a dados reais mostram que o novo resíduo é altamente competitivo em relação ao resíduos amplamente usados e consolidados na literatura. / In statistical methodologies, regression analysis can be a very effective way to model data. In this sense, the diagnostic analysis is needed to try to determine what might happened in the data generating process if the conditions imposed to it are not true. One of the most useful techniques to detect the goodness of fit to the model is the evaluation of residuals. In this work, we propose a new residual to the class of linear and nonlinear regression models based on exponential family with variable dispersion (Smyth (1989)). The proposal incorporates simultaneously information from the sub-models of the mean and the dispersion without using projection matrices for its standardization. Simulation resultsandapplicationsinrealdatashowthatthenewresidualishighlycompetitivewith respect to residuals widely used and established in the literature.

In this thesis, we consider several statistical techniques applicable to claim frequency models of an MTPL portfolio with a focus on overdispersion. The practical part of the work is focused on the application and comparison of the models on real data represented by an MTPL portfolio. The comparison is presented by the results of goodness-of-fit measures. Furthermore, the predictive power of selected models is tested for the given dataset, using the simulation method. Hence, this thesis provides a combination of the analysis of goodness-of-fit results and the predictive power of the models.

Cette étude réexamine la théorie aristotélicienne du plaisir en analysant les textes qui s’approchent au plus près d’une définition du concept, et en mesurant les présupposés et les enjeux de leur contenu doctrinal dans l’ensemble de la philosophie d’Aristote. Elle est organisée autour d’un commentaire suivi de Ethique à Nicomaque X 3-4, où le statut du plaisir se trouve précisément déterminé : au sein d’un unique acte cognitif pensé comme une activité continuellement parfaite, le plaisir est à la fois la satisfaction avérée de notre bon exercice, et l’incitation à le continuer tel quel. Cette étude exige une élucidation de l’opposition entre « activité » (energeia) et mouvement, mais aussi un examen préalable de certains présupposés : nous reconsidérons, notamment à partir des traités de psychologie, les caractéristiques formelles de la sensation, paradigme de l’activité plaisante, et montrons que les plaisirs n’obéissant pas au même paradigme, et d’abord les satisfactions des appétits corporels, ne sont pas pour Aristote des plaisirs effectifs. Le dernier moment de notre étude est consacré à évaluer la théorie par rapport à sa destination, le savoir dont doit disposer l’éducateur pour produire les vertus et le bonheur : à partir des éléments fournis par Aristote, il s’avère difficile, bien que nécessaire, de distinguer le plaisir du bien auquel on doit tendre ; il est également malaisé de penser et d’évaluer les plaisirs que l’éducation doit réguler, mais aussi ceux qu’elle doit atteindre (celui de la meilleure pratique et celui de la meilleure contemplation). / I scrutinize Aristotle’s theory of pleasure by analysing the texts that define the concept as closely as can be, and by assessing the presuppositions and the stakes of this definition within Aristotle’s philosophy as a whole. My study is centred upon a commentary of Nicomachean Ethics X, 3-4 where the status of pleasure is enlightened with precision: located within a unique act of cognition (which is essentially a perfect and perpetual activity), pleasure is both an aspect that reveals our good functioning, and an incentive for us to keep it working in the exact same way. I explore the elements presupposed by this account, elucidating the opposition between “activity” (energeia) and process, and before, giving a new light to the formal features of the paradigm of a pleasant activity, i. e. perception, as it is conceived in the psychological treatises. I also explain how pleasures that do not follow this paradigm, i. e. bodily pleasures, are not seen by Aristotle as some effective pleasures at all. The last phase in this work is devoted to an assessment of the discourse on pleasure according to its aim: delivering to a teacher the knowledge he needs in order to produce virtues and happiness. I underline that, from the elements given by Aristotle, it is difficult, but necessary, to make a distinction between the pleasure one can feel at goodness and this very same goodness towards which one must strive. It is quite as difficult to conceive and evaluate all the forms of pleasure education has to regulate, as well as those that it must lead one to feel (pleasure deriving from the best practice, or from the best contemplation).

In this work, we model latent discourse indicators to classify constructive and collaborative conversations online. Such conversations are considered good as they are rich in content and have a sense of direction to resolve an issue, solve a problem or gain new insights and knowledge. These unique discourse indicators are able to characterize flow of information, sentiment and community structure within discussions. We build a deep relational model that captures these complex discourse behaviors as latent variables and make a global prediction about overall conversation based on these higher level discourse behaviors. DRaiL, a Declarative Deep Relational Learning platform built on PyTorch, is used for our task in which relevant discourse behaviors are formulated as discrete latent variables and scored using a deep model. These variables capture the nuances involved in online conversations and provide the information needed for predicting the presence or absence of collaborative and constructive characterization in the entire conversational thread. We show that the joint modeling of such competing latent behaviors results in a performance improvement over the traditional direct classification methods in which all the raw features are just combined together to predict the final decision. The Yahoo News Annotated Comments Corpus is used as a dataset containing discussions on Yahoo news forums and final labels are annotated based on our precise and restricted definitions of positively labeled conversations. We formulated our annotation guidelines based on a sample set of conversations and resolved any conflict in specific annotation by revisiting those examples again.

This diploma thesis entitled "Environmental policy of the European Union and its impact on the environmental policy of the Slovak Republic" targets the environmental policy of these two entities, focusing on a specific area, namely waste management. Despite the fact that environmental policy did not belong to the original agenda of the European Union during its creation, today, due to the gradual development characterized in the first part of the work, the EU is a prominent player in this field. In other parts of the work we describe how Slovakia has gradually undergone a progressive change, ie Europeanization, through its involvement in EU policies. Based on the membership of the Slovak Republic in the European Union since 2004, the Slovak Republic has obligations and commitments, which shows the significant influence of the European Union, and thus the existing environmental policies of the Member States are no longer politically or legally separated from EU environmental policy. In addition to the goal of providing a comprehensive overview of the development of environmental policy of the both European Union and the Slovak Republic since its formation, the main goal is to analyze the implementation of waste management in the form of Framework Directive 2008/98 / EC on waste. This goal is based...

What is it for something to be good? Using the example of an Ebola-like microbe, I argue that a merely kind-based account of goodness is defective (Chapter 1). I offer instead an account that is both kind-based and platonic (Chapter 2). On such an account, goodness turns out to be non-natural (Chapter 3). However, non-naturalists can explain why the goodness of an individual supervenes on its natural properties, by appealing to the essence of the kind to which it belongs (Chapter 4).

Dans ce travail, nous nous intéressons à l'inférence statistique dans deux modèles semi-paramétrique et non-paramétrique stratifiés de durées de vie censurées. Nous proposons tout d'abord une statistique de test d'ajustement pour le modèle de régression stratifié à risques proportionnels. Nous établissons sa distribution asymptotique sous l'hypothèse nulle d'un ajustement correct du modèle aux données. Nous étudions les propriétés numériques de ce test (niveau, puissance sous différentes alternatives) au moyen de simulations. Nous proposons ensuite une procédure permettant de stratifier le modèle à 1isques proportionnels suivant un seuil inconnu d'une variable de stratification. Cette procédure repose sur l'utilisation du test d'ajustement proposé précédemment. Une étude de simulation exhaustive est conduite pour évaluer les pe1fonnances de cette procédure. Dans une seconde partie de notre travail, nous nous intéressons à l'application du test du logrank stratifié dans un contexte de données manquantes (nous considérons la situation où les strates ne peuvent être observées chez tous les individus de l'échantillon). Nous construisons une version pondérée du logrank stratifié adaptée à ce problème. Nous en établissons la loi limite sous l'hypothèse nulle d'égalité des fonctions de risque dans les différents groupes. Les propriétés de cette nouvelle statistique de test sont évaluée au moyen de simulations. Le test est ensuite appliqué à un jeu de données médicales. / In this work, we are interested in the statistical inference in two semi-parametric and non-parametric stratified models for censored data. We first propose a goodnessof- fit test statistic for the stratified proportional hazards regression model. We establish its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of a correct fit of the model. We investigate the numerical properties of this test (level, power under different alternatives) by means of simulations. Then, we propose a procedure allowing to stratify the proportional hazards model according to an unknown threshold in a stratification variable. This procedure is based on the goodness-of-fit test proposed earlier. An exhaustive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of this procedure. In a second part of our work, we consider the stratified logrank test in a context of missing data (we consider the situation where strata can not be observed on all sample individuals). We construct a weighted version of the stratified logrank, adapted to this problem. We establish its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of equality of the hazards functions in the different groups. The prope1ties of this new test statistic are assessed using simulatious. Finally, the test is applied to a medical dataset.

In certain areas such as Pharmacokinetic(PK) and Pharmacodynamic(PD), the hazard rate function, denoted by ??, plays a central role in modeling the instantaneous risk of failure time data. In the context of assessing the appropriateness of a given parametric hazard rate model, Huh and Hutmacher [22] showed that their hazard-based visual predictive check is as good as a visual predictive check based on the survival function. Even though Huh and Hutmacher’s visual method is simple to implement and interpret, the final decision reached there depends on the personal experience of the user. In this thesis, our primary aim is to develop nonparametric goodness-ofit tests for hazard rate functions to help bring objectivity in hazard rate model selections or to augment subjective procedures like Huh and Hutmacher’s visual predictive check. Toward that aim two nonparametric goodnessofit (g-o) test statistics are proposed and they are referred to as chi-square g-o test and kernel-based nonparametric goodness-ofit test for hazard rate functions, respectively. On one hand, the asymptotic distribution of the chi-square goodness-ofit test for hazard rate functions is derived under the null hypothesis ??0 : ??(??) = ??0(??) ??? ? R + as well as under the fixed alternative hypothesis ??1 : ??(??) = ??1(??) ??? ? R +. The results as expected are asymptotically similar to those of the usual Pearson chi-square test. That is, under the null hypothesis the proposed test converges to a chi-square distribution and under the fixed alternative hypothesis it converges to a non-central chi-square distribution. On the other hand, we showed that the power properties of the kernel-based nonparametric goodness-ofit test for hazard rate functions are equivalent to those of the Bickel and Rosenblatt test, meaning the proposed kernel-based nonparametric goodness-ofit test can detect alternatives converging to the null at the rate of ???? , ?? < 1/2, where ?? is the sample size. Unlike the latter, the convergence rate of the kernel-base nonparametric g-o test is much greater; that is, one does not need a very large sample size for able to use the asymptotic distribution of the test in practice.

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