<p>I denna uppsats undersöks hur moral hazard påverkas i grupplån vid frånvaro av sociala band, övervakning, och kontinuerliga krediter. Undersökningen förklarar grupplån i teori men presenterar även empiriskt material från andra författares artiklar. Undersökningen visar att de sociala banden inte har den avgörande betydelsen som teorin förutsätter. Vidare konstateras att nära övervakning och låntagarens behov av framtida lån har stor betydelse för att reducera moral hazard.</p>

The cyclic resistance of predominantly fine-grained soils has received considerable attention following ground and foundation failures at sites underlain by silt-rich soils during recent earthquakes. In several cases substantial ground deformation and reduced bearing capacity of silt soils has been attributed to excess pore pressure generation during cyclic loading. These field case studies are significant due to the occurrence of liquefaction related phenomena in soils that would be characterized as not susceptible to liquefaction using current geotechnical screening criteria. The most widely used of these criteria, the "Chinese Criteria" and its derivatives, are based solely on soil composition and they are essentially diagnostic tools that categorize the soil in a binary fashion as either liquefiable or non-liquefiable. The most significant limitations of these screening tools are that they fail to account for the characteristics of the cyclic loading. This investigation was undertaken to elucidate the potential for strain development in silts during cyclic loading, and to develop a practice-oriented procedure for evaluating the seismic performance of silts as a function of material properties, in situ stresses, and the characteristics of the cyclic loading. This dissertation presents the results of a multi-faceted investigation of the potential for seismically induced pore pressures and large strain development in silt soils. The primary focus of the research was on the synthesis of laboratory testing results on fine grained soils. Laboratory data from cyclic tests performed at Oregon State University and other universities formed the basis for enhanced screening criteria for potentially liquefiable silts. This data was supplemented with field data from sites at which excess pore pressure generation, liquefaction, and/or ground failures were observed during recent earthquakes. This investigation specifically addressed the behavior of silts during loading in cyclic triaxial tests due to the relative abundance of data obtained for this test. The data was used in conjunction with standard geotechnical index tests to enhance an existing energy based procedure for estimating excess pore pressure generation in silts. This pore pressure model can be used with the uncoupled, stress-based methods for estimating the post-cyclic loading volumetric strain developed in this investigation. The energy-based excess pore pressure model and empirical volumetric strain relationship were used to calibrate for applications involving silt soils a nonlinear, effective stress model for dynamic soil response (SUMDES). The SUMDES model was employed, along with the equivalent linear total stress model SHAKE, to estimate excess pore pressures generated at un-instrumented field sites that have exhibited evidence of liquefaction during recent earthquakes. A comparison of the SUMDES and SHAKE results highlighted the limitations of the latter model for simulating dynamic soil response at various levels of shaking and pore pressure response. The results of the SUMDES modeling at several well documented case study sites are presented in this dissertation. These comparisons are valuable for demonstrating the uncertainties associated with modeling of the effective stress behavior of silt during seismic loading. / Graduation date: 2005

We give a common frame for different estimates in survival models. For models with nuisance parameters we approximate the profile likelihood and find estimates especially for the proportional hazard model.

Earthquake faults interact with each other in many different ways and hence earthquakes cannot be treated as individual independent events. Although earthquake interactions generally lead to a complex evolution of the crustal stress field, it does not necessarily mean that the earthquake occurrence becomes random and completely unpredictable. In particular, the interplay between earthquakes can rather explain the occurrence of pronounced characteristics such as periods of accelerated and depressed seismicity (seismic quiescence) as well as spatiotemporal earthquake clustering (swarms and aftershock sequences). Ignoring the time-dependence of the process by looking at time-averaged values – as largely done in standard procedures of seismic hazard assessment – can thus lead to erroneous estimations not only of the activity level of future earthquakes but also of their spatial distribution. Therefore, it exists an urgent need for applicable time-dependent models. In my work, I aimed at better understanding and characterization of the earthquake interactions in order to improve seismic hazard estimations. For this purpose, I studied seismicity patterns on spatial scales ranging from hydraulic fracture experiments (meter to kilometer) to fault system size (hundreds of kilometers), while the temporal scale of interest varied from the immediate aftershock activity (minutes to months) to seismic cycles (tens to thousands of years). My studies revealed a number of new characteristics of fluid-induced and stress-triggered earthquake clustering as well as precursory phenomena in earthquake cycles. Data analysis of earthquake and deformation data were accompanied by statistical and physics-based model simulations which allow a better understanding of the role of structural heterogeneities, stress changes, afterslip and fluid flow. Finally, new strategies and methods have been developed and tested which help to improve seismic hazard estimations by taking the time-dependence of the earthquake process appropriately into account. / Erdbeben interagieren in vielfältiger Weise miteinander, weshalb sie nicht als einzelne, unabhängige Ereignisse behandelt werden können. Obwohl diese Erdbebenwechselwirkungen in der Regel zu einer komplexen Entwicklung des Spannungsfelds führen, bedeutet dies nicht zwangsläufig, dass Erdbeben rein zufällig und völlig unberechenbar auftreten. Insbesondere kann das Zusammenspiel zwischen Erdbeben zu ausgeprägten Charakteristiken wie Phasen beschleunigter Aktivität, seismischer Ruhe sowie raumzeitlichen Erdbebenanhäufungen (Schwärme und Nachbebensequenzen) führen. Die Vernachlässigung der Zeitabhängigkeit des Erdbebenprozesses kann somit zu fehlerhaften Einschätzungen nicht nur des zukünftigen Aktivitätsniveaus, sondern auch der räumlichen Verteilung führen. Daher besteht ein dringender Bedarf an geeigneten zeitabhängigen Seismizitätsmodellen. Meine Arbeit zielt auf ein verbessertes Verständnis und Charakterisierung der Interaktionen von Erdbeben ab, um Abschätzungen der Erdbebengefährdung zu verbessern. Zu diesem Zweck untersuche ich Seismizitätsmuster auf den räumlichen Skalen von hydraulisch induzierten Öffnungsbrüchen (Meter bis Kilometer) bis zu Verwerfungssystemen (Hunderte von Kilometern), während die zeitlichen Skalen von Nachbebenaktivität (Minuten bis Monate) bis zu seismischen Zyklen (bis zu mehrere tausendend Jahre) reichen. Meine Studien ergeben eine Reihe neuer Merkmale von Fluid- und Spannungs-induzierten Erdbeben. Ergänzend zur reinen Datenanalyse der Erdbeben- und Deformationsdaten liefern statistische und Physik-basierte Modellsimulationen ein besseres Verständnis der Rolle von strukturellen Heterogenitäten, Spannungsänderungen und postseismischen Prozessen. Schließlich konnten neue Strategien und Methoden entwickelt und getestet werden, mit denen die Erdbebengefährdung besser eingeschätzt werden kann, indem die Zeitabhängigkeit des Erdbebens Prozess angemessen berücksichtigt wird.

Denna litteraturstudie avser reda ut den eventuella kopplingen mellan bonus och dagens finanskris samt undersöka om ett bonusstopp för bankanställda kan minska risken för en framtida finansiell kris. Uppsatsen inleds med en förklaring av bankväsendets särart och vikten av ett statligt skyddsnät. Senare avhandlas relevant bonusteori och moral hazard, därefter en redogörelse för bonusens betydelse i finanskrisen. Vidare utreds bonusprogrammens inverkan i svenska bankers expansion i Baltikum. Vi har kommit fram till att belöningsstrukturen inom finansbranschen har varit felaktigt utformad då dessa belönat kortsiktiga vinster på riskfyllda affärer. Detta har varit en av orsakerna till subprimekrisen. Ett bonusstopp minskar därför risken för liknande finansiella kriser men kan däremot inte helt eliminera risken för finanskriser.

There have been studies on the role of land use planning and development regulations on hazard mitigation and the importance of including these in effective mitigation planning initiatives. However, little empirical research has examined how the local capacity and commitment affect the adoption and implementation of land use and development regulations to mitigate any type of hazards in the coastal areas. This study investigates hazard mitigation policies and practices at municipal and county level in the Texas coastal area and examines the influence of capacity and commitment for the adoption and implementation of these hazard mitigation strategies and actions. The data utilized in this survey were collected as part of a web-based survey. Responses were solicited from 267 local jurisdictions that consist of 226 cities and 41 counties. The survey was targeted to leading planner, or mayor/city manager and county judges. In total 124 responses were obtained, yielding an overall response rate of 46%. Study results show that local jurisdictions are employing a very limited a set of land use and development regulations that the literature has identified as important for hazard mitigation. There are considerable differences between municipalities and counties in the implementation of those policies. Municipalities tend to put more effort in employing building standards and development regulations, whereas counties more extensively employ information dissemination and private-public sector initiatives. In addition, statistical models are developed to assess the influence of local capacity and commitment on the adoption and implementation of hazard mitigation policies and strategies. Other factors such as jurisdiction type and location, hazard experience and exposure as well as population characteristics, are also examined in multivariate models. Results suggest that capacity and commitment of local jurisdictions have significant effects on the adoption and implementation hazard mitigation policies and strategies. Additionally, factor such as floodplain area, jurisdiction type municipality, and hazard experience have strong associated with implementation of hazard mitigation policies and strategies.

All around the world the global climate change has become an important issue and its impact has been widely discussed. In the Everest region the environment is extra sensitive to changes due to the numbers of glaciers in the area. When glaciers are melting and ground temperature is rising it is likely to affect the area by causing more hazards. The area also has an extreme relief and high seismic activity, which also contribute to the numerous hazards. An increasing number of hazards could be a danger both to local people and to tourists visiting the area. Local people are forced to build houses in high risk areas due to limited supply of land suitable for farming and living in the mountains. We made a field trip to Khumbu valley, in the Everest region. On the field trip we mapped the location of hazards and examined where there was a risk of future hazards to occur. The hazards were surveyed with GPS. Maps and analyses were generated with GIS software at the Himalayan environmental research center in Kathmandu, ICIMOD. We digitalized the hazards and hyperlinked photos to them. We also did an image difference analysis, where we compared satellite images from different years to see whether the number of hazards had increased. The result indicated that from 1976 to 2000 the number of hazards have increased, especially along the river. The photo documentation provides a basis for follow-up studies of the future development of the hazardous areas. A number of diagrams were made to visualize results from the field trip. It can be seen that there are many hazards close to where people are living and close to trails. We also compared our digitalized hazards to risk maps (from 1985 and 2005) to see which risk zone our hazards belonged to. A slope map of the area was created with hyperlinked photos from the sites. / Frågan om hur klimatförändringar kommer att påverka vår miljö har blivit ett stort samtalsämne i hela världen. Everestområdet i Nepal är extra känsligt för förändringar på grund av att det finns många glaciärer i området. När glaciärerna smälter och marktemperaturen stiger kommer det troligtvis att påverka antalet skred i området. En ökning av antalet skred kan medföra större risker för lokalbefolkning och turister, som vistas i området. Det är därför viktigt att informera och utbilda lokalbefolkningen om var det är säkert att bygga nya hus m.m. Vi har gjort ett fältarbete i Khumbudalen som ligger i Everestområdet. Under fältvistelsen kartlade och fotograferade vi skredens utbredning och undersökte var risken för skred är som störst. Skreden och sluttningarna mättes in med hjälp av GPS. Efter fältvistelsen gjorde vi kartor och analyser med hjälp av GIS, på ett forskningscentrum i Kathmandu, ICIMOD. Vi digitaliserade skred och länkade foton till dem. Vi gjorde också en förändringsanalys där vi jämförde satellitbilder från olika år (1976 till 2000) för att se om förekomsten av skred har ökat. Resultatet visar en ökning av antalet skred särskilt utmed floden. Fotodokumentationen utgör en grund för uppföljningsstudier av utvecklingen av skred i området. Ett antal diagram skapades för att visa resultaten från fältvistelsen. Det framgår att det finns många skred där människor lever och vid vandringsstigar. Vi jämförde också våra digitaliserade skred med riskkartor från 1985 och 2005 för att se i vilken riskzon skreden ligger i. En sluttningskarta över området skapades med foton länkade till kartan.

No description available.

This study presents an unsteady-state hydraulic model analysis of hurricane storm surge and rainfall-runoff interactions in the Clear Creek Watershed, a basin draining into Galveston Bay and vulnerable to flooding from both intense local rainfalls and storm surge. Storm surge and rainfall-runoff have historically been modeled separately, and thus the linkage and interactions between the two during a hurricane are not completely understood. This study simulates the two processes simultaneously by using storm surge stage hydrographs as boundary conditions in the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s – River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model. Storm surge hydrographs for a severe hurricane were generated in the Advanced Circulation Model for Oceanic, Coastal, and Estuarine Waters (ADCIRC) model to predict the flooding that could be caused by a worst-case scenario. Using this scenario, zones have been identified to represent areas in the Clear Creek Watershed vulnerable to flooding from storm surge, rainfall, or both.

Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka ”venture capital”-branschen och hur omfattande problemen med asymmetrisk information och ”moral hazard” är samt hur risk hanteras. Syftet är också att arbeta fram en hypotes för framtida kvantitativ forskning.   Ansats/metod: Med en deduktiv ansats har en kvalitativ studie genomförts. Datainsamling av empirisk primärdata har skett genom semi-strukturerade intervjuer.   Teoretisk referensram: Det teoretiska kapitlet tar upp grundläggande teorier kring asymmetrisk information, ”moral hazard”, ”agency costs” och riskhantering. Avsnittet tar även upp metoder för att motverka och minimera effekterna av agent-problemet.   Empiri: I empirikapitlet redogörs för de fem intervjuer som genomförts med personer som representerar fem olika VC-bolag. Det empiriska kapitlet visar hur bolagen arbetar i investeringsprocessen med att hantera risk.   Slutsats: Uppsatsens slutsats visar på relativt stora skillnader mellan vad som beskrivs i den teoretiska referensramen jämfört med hur svenska VC-bolag arbetar.