Process plants that produce chemical products through pre-designed processes are fundamental in the Chemical Engineering industry. The safety of hazardous processing plants is of paramount importance as an accident could cause major damage to property and/or injury to people. HAZID is a computer system that helps designers and operators of process plants to identify potential design and operation problems given a process plant design. However, there are issues that need to be addressed before such a system will be accepted for common use. This research project considers how to improve the usability and acceptability of such a system by developing tools to test the developed models in order for the users to gain confidence in HAZID s output as HAZID is a model based system with a library of equipment models. The research also investigates the development of computer-aided safety applications and how they can be integrated together to extend HAZID to support different kinds of safety-related reasoning tasks. Three computer-aided tools and one reasoning system have been developed from this project. The first is called Model Test Bed, which is to test the correctness of models that have been built. The second is called Safe Isolation Tool, which is to define isolation boundary and identify potential hazards for isolation work. The third is an Instrument Checker, which lists all the instruments and their connections with process items in a process plant for the engineers to consider whether the instrument and its loop provide safeguards to the equipment during the hazard identification procedure. The fourth is a cause-effect analysis system that can automatically generate cause-effect tables for the control engineers to consider the safety design of the control of a plant as the table shows process events and corresponding process responses designed by the control engineer. The thesis provides a full description of the above four tools and how they are integrated into the HAZID system to perform control safety analysis and hazard identification in process plants.

L’étude du temps de survenue d’un événement représente un champ très important des statistiques. Lorsque l’événement étudié est le décès, on cherche à décrire la survie des individus ainsi que leur taux de mortalité, c’est-à-dire la « force de mortalité » qui s’applique à un instant donné. Les patients atteints d’une maladie chronique présentent en général un excès de mortalité par rapport à une population ne présentant pas la maladie en question. En épidémiologie, l’étude du taux de mortalité en excès des patients, et notamment de l’impact des facteurs pronostiques sur celui-ci, représente donc un enjeu majeur de santé publique. D’un point de vue statistique, la modélisation du taux de mortalité (en excès) implique de prendre en compte les effets potentiellement non-linéaires et dépendants du temps des facteurs pronostiques ainsi que les interactions. Les splines de régression, polynômes par morceaux paramétriques et flexibles, sont des outils particulièrement bien adaptés pour modéliser des effets d’une telle complexité. Toutefois, la flexibilité des splines de régression comporte un risque de sur-ajustement. Pour éviter ce risque, les splines de régression pénalisées ont été proposées dans le cadre des modèles additifs généralisés. Leur principe est le suivant : à chaque spline peuvent être associés un ou plusieurs termes de pénalité contrôlés par des paramètres de lissage. Les paramètres de lissage représentent les degrés de pénalisation souhaités. En pratique, ils sont inconnus et doivent être estimés tout comme les paramètres de régression. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous avons développé une méthode permettant de modéliser le taux de mortalité (en excès) à l’aide de splines de régression multidimensionnelles pénalisées. Des splines cubiques restreintes ont été utilisées comme splines unidimensionnelles ou bien comme bases marginales afin de former des splines multidimensionnelles par produits tensoriels. Le processus d’optimisation s’appuie sur deux algorithmes de Newton-Raphson emboîtés. L’estimation des paramètres de lissage est effectuée en optimisant un critère de validation croisée ou bien la vraisemblance marginale des paramètres de lissage par un algorithme de Newton-Raphson dit externe. A paramètres de lissage fixés, les paramètres de régression sont estimés par maximisation de la vraisemblance pénalisée par un algorithme de Newton-Raphson dit interne.Les bonnes propriétés de cette approche en termes de performances statistiques et de stabilité numérique ont ensuite été démontrées par simulation. La méthode a ensuite été implémentée au sein du package R survPen. Enfin, la méthode a été appliquée sur des données réelles afin de répondre aux deux questions épidémiologiques suivantes : l’impact de la défavorisation sociale sur la mortalité en excès des patients atteints d’un cancer du col de l’utérus et l’impact de l’âge courant sur la mortalité en excès des patients atteints de sclérose en plaques / Time-to-event analysis is a very important field in statistics. When the event under study is death, the analysis focuses on the probability of survival of the subjects as well as on their mortality hazard, that is, on the "force of mortality" that applies at any given moment. Patients with a chronic disease usually have an excess mortality compared to a population that does not have the disease. Studying the excess mortality hazard associated with a disease and investigating the impact of prognostic factors on this hazard are important public health issues in epidemiology. From a statistical point of view, modelling the (excess) mortality hazard involves taking into account potentially non-linear and time-dependent effects of prognostic factors as well as their interactions. Regression splines (i.e., parametric and flexible piecewise polynomials) are ideal for dealing with such a complexity. They make it possible to build easily nonlinear effects and, regarding interactions between continuous variables, make it easy to form a multidimensional spline from two or more marginal one-dimensional splines. However, the flexibility of regression splines presents a risk of overfitting. To avoid this risk, penalized regression splines have been proposed as part of generalized additive models. Their principle is to associate each spline with one or more penalty terms controlled by smoothing parameters. The smoothing parameters represent the desired degrees of penalization. In practice, these parameters are unknown and have to be estimated just like the regression parameters. This thesis describes the development of a method to model the (excess) hazard using multidimensional penalized regression splines. Restricted cubic splines were used as one-dimensional splines or marginal bases to form multidimensional splines by tensor products. The optimization process relies on two nested Newton-Raphson algorithms. Smoothing parameter estimation is performed by optimizing a cross-validation criterion or the marginal likelihood of the smoothing parameters with an outer Newton-Raphson algorithm. At fixed smoothing parameters, the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing the penalized likelihood by an inner Newton-Raphson algorithm.The good properties of this approach in terms of statistical performance and numerical stability were then demonstrated through simulation. The described method was then implemented within the R package survPen. Finally, the method was applied to real data to investigate two epidemiological issues: the impact of social deprivation on the excess mortality in cervical cancer patients and the impact of the current age on the excess mortality in multiple sclerosis patients

Earthquakes are among the most devastating and unpredictable of natural hazards that affect civil infrastructure and have the potential for causing numerous casualties and significant economic losses over large areas. Every region that has the potential for great earthquakes should have an integrated plan for a seismic design and risk mitigation for civil infrastructure. This plan should include methods for estimating the vulnerability of building inventories and for forecasting economic losses resulting from future events. This study describes a methodology to assess risk to distributed civil infrastructure due to large-scale natural hazards with large geographical footprints, such as earthquakes, hurricanes and floods, and provides a detailed analysis and assessment of building losses due to earthquake. The distinguishing feature of this research, in contrast to previous loss estimation methods incorporated in systems such as HAZUS-MH, is that it considers the correlation in stochastic demand on building inventories due to the hazard, as well as correlation in building response and damage due to common materials, construction technologies, codes and code enforcement. These sources of correlation have been neglected, for the most part, in previous research. The present study has revealed that the neglect of these sources of correlation leads to an underestimation of the estimates of variance in loss and in the probable maximum loss (PML) used as a basis for underwriting risks. The methodology is illustrated with a seismic risk assessment of building inventories representing different occupancy classes in Shelby County, TN, considering both scenario earthquakes and earthquakes specified probabilistically. It is shown that losses to building inventories estimated under the common assumption that the individual losses can be treated as statistically independent may underestimate the PML by a factor of range from 1.7 to 3.0, depending on which structural and nonstructural elements are included in the assessment. A sensitivity analysis reveals the statistics and sources of correlation that are most significant for loss estimation, and points the way forward for supporting data acquisition and synthesis.

Seismic hazard and microzonation of cities enable to characterize the potential seismic areas that need to be taken into account when designing new structures or retrofitting the existing ones. Study of seismic hazard and preparation of geotechnical microzonation maps will provide an effective solution for city planning and input to earthquake resistant design of structures in an area. Seismic hazard is the study of expected earthquake ground motions at any point on the earth. Microzonation is the process of sub division of region in to number of zones based on the earthquake effects in the local scale. Seismic microzonation is the process of estimating response of soil layers under earthquake excitation and thus the variation of ground motion characteristic on the ground surface. Geotechnical site characterization and assessment of site response during earthquakes is one of the crucial phases of seismic microzonation with respect to ground shaking intensity, attenuation, amplification rating and liquefaction susceptibility. Microzonation mapping of seismic hazards can be expressed in relative or absolute terms, on an urban block-by-block scale, based on local soil conditions (such as soil types) that affect ground shaking levels or vulnerability to soil liquefaction. Such maps would provide general guidelines for integrated planning of cities and in positioning the types of new structures that are most suited to an area, along with information on the relative damage potential of the existing structures in a region. In the present study an attempt has been made to characterize the site and to study the seismic hazard analysis considering the local site effects and to develop microzonation maps for Bangalore. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of Bangalore is addressed in this study in three parts: In the first part, estimation of seismic hazard using seismotectonic and geological information. Second part deals about site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. An area of 220 sq.km, encompassing Bangalore Municipal Corporation has been chosen as the study area in this part of the investigation. There were over 150 lakes, though most of them are dried up due to erosion and encroachments leaving only 64 at present in an area of 220 sq. km and emphasizing the need to study site effects. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis (using the program SHAKE 2000) using both borehole SPT data and shear wave velocity survey data within an area of 220 sq. km. Further, field experiments using microtremor studies have also been carried out (jointly with NGRI) for evaluation of predominant frequency of the soil columns. The same has been assessed using 1-D ground response analysis and compared with microtremor results. Further, Seed and Idriss simplified approach has been adopted to evaluate the liquefaction susceptibility and liquefaction resistance assessment. Microzonation maps have been prepared for Bangalore city covering 220 sq. km area on a scale of 1:20000. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) for Bangalore has been carried out by considering the past earthquakes, assumed subsurface fault rupture lengths and point source synthetic ground motion model. The seismic sources for region have been collected by considering seismotectonic atlas map of India and lineaments identified from satellite remote sensing images. Analysis of lineaments and faults help in understanding the regional seismotectonic activity of the area. Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) has been determined by considering the regional seismotectonic activity in about 350 km radius around Bangalore. Earthquake data are collected from United State Geological Survey (USGS), Indian Metrological Department (IMD), New Delhi; Geological Survey of India (GSI) and Amateur Seismic Centre (ASC), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI),Hyderabad; Centre for Earth Science Studies (CESS), Akkulam, Kerala; Gauribindanur (GB) Seismic station and other public domain sites. Source magnitude for each source is chosen from the maximum reported past earthquake close to that source and shortest distance from each source to Bangalore is arrived from the newly prepared seismotectonic map of the area. Using these details, and, attenuation relation developed for southern India by Iyengar and Raghukanth (2004), the peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to find fault subsurface rupture length using past earthquake data and Wells and Coppersmith (1994) relation between the subsurface lengths versus earthquake magnitudes. Further seismological model developed by Boore (1983, 2003) SMSIM program has been used to generate synthetic ground motions from vulnerable sources identified in above two methods. From the above three approaches maximum PGA of 0.15g was estimated for Bangalore. This value was obtained for a maximum credible earthquake (MCE) having a moment magnitude of 5.1 from a source of Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore lineament. Considering this lineament and MCE, a synthetic ground motion has been generated for 850 borehole locations and they are used to prepare PGA map at rock level. The past seismic data has been collected for almost 200 years from different sources such as IMD, BARC (Gauribidanur array), NGRI, CESS, ASC center, USGS, and other public domain data. The seismic data is seen to be homogenous for the last four decades irrespective of the magnitude. Seismic parameters were then evaluated using the data corresponding to the last four decades and also the mixed data (using Kijko’s analysis) for Bangalore region, which are found to be comparable with the earlier reported seismic parameters for south India. The probabilities of distance, magnitude and peak ground acceleration have been evaluated for the six most vulnerable sources using PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). The mean annual rate of exceedance has been calculated for all the six sources at the rock level. The cumulative probability hazard curves have been generated at the bedrock level for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration. The spectral acceleration calculation corresponding to a period of 1sec and 5% damping are evaluated. For the design of structures, uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are comparable to the PGA values obtained in deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and higher than Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et.al (1997) for the Indian shield area. The 3-D subsurface model with geotechnical data has been generated for site characterization of Bangalore. The base map of Bangalore city (220sq.km) with several layers of information (such as Outer and Administrative boundaries, Contours, Highways, Major roads, Minor roads, Streets, Rail roads, Water bodies, Drains, Landmarks and Borehole locations) has been generated. GIS database for collating and synthesizing geotechnical data available with different sources and 3-dimensional view of soil stratum presenting various geotechnical parameters with depth in appropriate format has been developed. In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock (called as “engineering rock depth” corresponding to about Vs > 700 m/sec) in the subsurface of Bangalore and their spatial variability evaluated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Observed SPT ‘N’ values are corrected by applying necessary corrections, which can be used for engineering studies such as site response and liquefaction analysis. Site characterization has also been carried out using measured shear wave velocity with the help of shear wave velocity survey using MASW. MASW (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave) is a geophysical method, which generates a shear-wave velocity (Vs) profile (i.e., Vs versus depth) by analyzing Raleigh-type surface waves on a multichannel record. MASW system consisting of 24 channels Geode seismograph with 24 geophones of 4.5 Hz capacity were used in this investigation. The shear wave velocity of Bangalore subsurface soil has been measured and correlation has been developed for shear wave velocity (Vs) with the standard penetration tests (SPT) corrected ‘N’ values. About 58 one-dimensional (1-D) MASW surveys and 20 two-dimensional (2-D) MASW surveys has been carried out with in 220 sq.km Bangalore urban area. Dispersion curves and shear velocity 1-D and 2-D have been evaluated using SurfSeis software. Using 1-dimensional shear wave velocity, the average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soil has been evaluated for depths of 5m, 10m, 15m, 20m, 25m and 30m (Vs30) depths. The sub soil classification has been carried out for local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30m depth (Vs30) of sites using NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Research Programme) and IBC (International Building Code) classification. Bangalore falls into site class D type of soil. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW is closely matching with the soil layers in the bore logs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes, which are used to generate the correlation between the shear wave velocity and corrected ‘N’ values using a power fit. Also, developed relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected ‘N’ values corresponds well with the published relationships of Japan Road Association. Bangalore city, a fast growing urban center, with low to moderate earthquake history and highly altered soil structure (due to large reclamation of land) is been the focus of this work. There were over 150 lakes, though most of them are dried up due to erosion and encroachments leaving only 64 at present in an area of 220 sq km. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the site response using geotechnical, geophysical data and field studies. The subsurface profiles of the study area within 220sq.km area was represented by 170 geotechnical bore logs and 58 shear wave velocity profiles obtained by MASW survey. The data from these geotechnical and geophysical technique have been used to study the site response. These soil properties and synthetic ground motions for each borehole locations are further used to study the local site effects by conducting one-dimensional ground response analysis using the program SHAKE2000. The response and amplification spectrum have been evaluated for each layer of borehole location. The natural period of the soil column, peak spectral acceleration and frequency at peak spectral acceleration of each borehole has been evaluated and presented as maps. Predominant frequency obtained from both methods is compared; the correlation between corrected SPT ‘N’ value and low strain shear modulus has been generated. The noise was recorded at 54 different locations in 220sq.km area of Bangalore city using L4-3D short period sensors (CMG3T) equipped with digital data acquisition system. Predominant frequency obtained from ground response studies and microtremor measurement is comparable. To study the liquefaction hazard in Bangalore, the liquefaction hazard assessment has been carried out using standard penetration test (SPT) data and soil properties. Factor of Safety against liquefaction of soil layer has been evaluated based on the simplified procedure of Seed and Idriss (1971) and subsequent revisions of Seed et al (1983, 1985), Youd et al (2001) and Cetin et al (2004). Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) resulting from earthquake loading is calculated by considering moment magnitude of 5.1 and amplified peak ground acceleration. Cyclic Resistant Ratio (CRR) is arrived using the corrected SPT ‘N’ values and soil properties. Factor of safety against liquefaction is calculated using stress ratios and accounting necessary magnitude scaling factor for maximum credible earthquake. A simple spread sheet was developed to carryout the calculation for each bore log. The factor of safety against liquefaction is grouped together for the purpose of classification of Bangalore (220 sq. km) area for a liquefaction hazards. Using 2-D base map of Bangalore city, the liquefaction hazard map was prepared using AutoCAD and Arc GIS packages. The results are grouped as four groups for mapping and presented in the form of 2-dimensional maps. Liquefaction possibilities are also assessed conducting laboratory cyclic triaxial test using undisturbed soil samples collected at few locations.

Im Rahmen der Arbeit wird der Begriff Sicherheit aus verschiedenen Blickwinkeln beleuchtet, Randbedingungen aus Theorie und Praxis zielorientiert strukturiert und ein Vorschlag für eine Integration betrieblicher Aspekte in Sicherheitsanalysen dargelegt. Dazu werden zunächst die normativ verankerten Lebenszyklusphasen des Bahnsystems und die darin festgelegten Verantwortlichkeiten vorgestellt. Darauf aufbauend erfolgt die beispielhafte Beschreibung einer neuen Analysemethode in Verfügbarkeits-Sicherheits-Diagrammen für betriebliche Szenarien des Bahnsystems. Die Arbeit endet mit der Vorstellung des Modells zur ganzheitlichen Sicherheitsbetrachtung des Bahnsystems, welches die zuvor gewonnenen Erkenntnisse integriert und die Grundlage für das Zulassungsverfahren von Bahnanlagen mit betrieblichem Sicherheitsnachweis legt. / This thesis deals with the detailed analysis of the term safety from different points of view. The main target of the document is the integration of operational aspects within technical solutions for railway systems. Operational use-cases have been analyzed using the availability-safety-diagram. The document concludes with the introduction of a model for holistic safety-related consideration of railway systems.

Migrationsverket är en myndighet som prövar ansökningar från personer som vill söka skydd, ha medborgarskap, studera eller vill jobba i Sverige. Då det på senare tid varit en stor ökning i dessa ansökningar har tiden för vilket ett beslut tar ökat. Varje typ av ansökning (exempelvis medborgarskap) är en process som består av flera steg. Hur beslutet går igenom dessa steg kallas för flöde. Migrationsverket vill därför öka sin flödeseffektivitet. När beslutet är klart och personen tagit del av det men inte är nöjd kan denne överklaga. Detta är en av de mest komplexa processerna på Migrationsverket. Syftet är analysera hur lång tid denna process tar och vilka steg i processen som påverkar tiden. Ett steg (som senare visar sig ha en stor effekt på tiden) är yttranden. Det är när domstolen begär information om vad personen som överklagar har att säga om varför denne överklagar. För att analysera detta var två metoder relevanta, accelerated failure time (AFT) och \multi-state models (MSM). Den ena kan predicera tid till händelse (AFT) medan den andra kan analysera effekten av tidspåverkan (MSM) i stegen. Yttranden tidigt i processen har stor betydelse för hur snabbt en överklagan får en dom samtidigt som att antal yttranden ökar tiden enormt. Det finns andra faktorer som påverkar tiden men inte i så stor grad som yttranden. Då yttranden tidigt i processen samtidigt som antal yttranden har betydelse kan flödeseffektiviteten ökas med att ta tid på sig att skriva ett informativt yttrande som gör att domstolen inte behöver begära flera yttranden. / The Swedish Migration Board is an agency that review applications from individuals who wish to seek shelter, have citizenship, study or want to work in Sweden. In recent time there has been a large increase in applications and the time for which a decision is made has increased. Each type of application (such as citizenship) is a process consisting of several stages. How the decision is going through these steps is called flow. The Swedish Migration Board would therefore like to increase their flow efficiency. When the decision is made and the person has take part of it but is not satisfied, he can appeal. This is one of the most complex processes at the Board. The aim is to analyze how long this process will take and what steps in the process affects the time. One step (which was later found to have a significant effect on time) is opinions. This is when the court requests information on what the person is appealing has to say about why he is appealing. To analyze this, two methods were relevant, accelerated failure time (AFT) and the multi-state models (MSM). One can predict time to event (AFT), the other to analyze the effect of time-manipulation (MSM) in the flow. Opinions early in the process is crucial to how quickly an appeal get judgment while the number of opinions increases the time enormously. There are other factors that affect the time but not so much as opinions. The flow efficiency can be increased by taking time to write an informative opinion which allows the court need not to ask for more opinions.

A comprehensive study of accident records which have occured in Coal Mining Industries of Europe and U. S. A are analysed. The intention of the research was to establish relationships between the various accidents and prevention methods adopted by each country are evaluated and to assess the impact of industrial legislation in these various countries on accident rate are examined. The study analyses in paricular the fatal accident rate, and major and minor rate. The Major health hazards associated with coal mining are described in detail and discusses together with the Measurement of safety performance and its application in the Safety field. The study also examines the role of human factors in accidents also includes a summaries of fatal and major injury rates for 46 countries. Arising from the research a number of recommendations for improving safety are requires further research are indentified.

Submitted by Richard Fonseca Francisco (richardfon1@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-23T23:20:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 francisco_rf_dr_rcla.pdf: 14432661 bytes, checksum: 7ac5b095d6b752095576e261247da48b (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Paula Santulo Custódio de Medeiros null (asantulo@rc.unesp.br), reason: - Falta a capa on 2018-04-24T13:20:15Z (GMT) / Submitted by Richard Fonseca Francisco (richardfon1@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-24T14:01:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 francisco_rf_dr_rcla.pdf: 14729213 bytes, checksum: f0a8f340fdf4b7d8fd75e6b825af99e4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Paula Santulo Custódio de Medeiros null (asantulo@rc.unesp.br) on 2018-04-24T17:19:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 francisco_rf_dr_rcla.pdf: 14719670 bytes, checksum: ef86656d898eb92e8d48fd2cc0fdef35 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-24T17:19:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 francisco_rf_dr_rcla.pdf: 14719670 bytes, checksum: ef86656d898eb92e8d48fd2cc0fdef35 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-04-10 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Diante da importância das águas subterrâneas para os diversos usos, particularmente o abastecimento público, e considerando os crescentes impactos nas reservas subterrâneas decorrentes de superexplotação, bem como a degradação da qualidade da água por atividades antrópicas, torna-se imprescindível o estabelecimento de instrumentos de planejamento, gestão do uso e proteção dos recursos hídricos subterrâneos. Por esta razão, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi apresentar uma proposta metodológica para avaliar a vulnerabilidade natural e perigo de contaminação de aquíferos livres granulares, a partir de uma abordagem centrada na integração entre o parâmetro de Dar Zarrouk denominado condutância longitudinal unitária e demais fatores que interferem na estimativa destes processos. Para tanto, os métodos SDR e SDR-PERIGO foram desenvolvidos e aplicados experimentalmente no Aquífero Rio Claro, no município de Rio Claro/SP, a fim de estimar a vulnerabilidade natural e perigo de contaminação, respectivamente. A espessura e a resistividade elétrica da zona não saturada, utilizadas para o cálculo da condutância longitudinal unitária, foram obtidas através do processamento e análise de sondagens elétricas verticais. Os demais fatores empregados foram a declividade, taxa anual de recarga do aquífero e uso e cobertura do solo. Os pesos de influência dos fatores foram determinados com o auxílio da Análise Hierárquica de Processos, a fim de reduzir a subjetividade e eventuais erros inerentes à tomada de decisão. Em seguida, os mapas de fator foram integrados em ambiente SIG, com base na Análise Multicritério, por meio da aplicação do método da Combinação Linear Ponderada. No que se refere ao método SDR, toda a área de estudo apresentou vulnerabilidade natural alta, resultado compatível com aqueles reportados em trabalhos anteriores e conforme o esperado, considerando as características dos sedimentos areno- argilosos da Formação Rio Claro. Com relação ao método SDR-PERIGO, o perigo é alto em aproximadamente 72% da área de estudo, devido à associação entre a alta vulnerabilidade natural e atividades potencialmente poluidoras. De modo geral, locais com alto perigo de contaminação foram relacionados, principalmente, à área urbano- industrial e aos cultivos de cana-de-açúcar e de cítricos. Áreas com perigo de contaminação baixo ou nulo foram encontradas onde ocorrem tipos de uso e cobertura da terra com potencial de contaminação insignificante, como vegetação natural e áreas úmidas. No que se refere aos métodos SDR e SDR-PERIGO, a análise integrada da condutância longitudinal unitária e demais parâmetros forneceu resultados robustos, sendo vantajosos sob o ponto de vista da praticidade na utilização e do número reduzido de parâmetros requeridos. Assim, estes métodos poderão ser empregados como alternativas àqueles considerados tradicionais e já consagrados na literatura pertinente, podendo constituir, futuramente, importantes ferramentas para a proteção de aquíferos livres granulares. / Considering the importance of groundwater for several uses, particularly the public supply, and considering the increasing impacts on groundwater reserves due to overexploitation, as well as the degradation of water quality by anthropogenic activities, it becomes essential to establish tools for planning, management of the use and protection of groundwater resources. For this reason, the aim of this research was to present a methodological proposal to assess the natural vulnerability and hazard to contamination of the granular unconfined aquifers, by means of an approach focused on the integration between the Dar Zarrouk parameter denominated Longitudinal Unit Conductance and other factors that interfere in the estimation of these processes. In order to evaluate the natural vulnerability and hazard to contamination, the SDR and SDR-HAZARD methods were developed and experimentally applied in the Rio Claro Aquifer, in the Rio Claro municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil. The longitudinal unit conductance results from the ratio between the thickness of the unsaturated zone and its electrical resistivity, which were obtained by processing and analysis of vertical electrical soundings. Other factors were used, such as slope, annual rate of aquifer recharge and land use. Factor weights were determined with the aid of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, in order to reduce the subjectivity and eventual inconsistencies in the decision-making process. Posteriorly, the factor maps were integrated into GIS based on Multicriteria Analysis, through the application of the Weighted Linear Combination method. Regarding the SDR method, the entire study area presented high natural vulnerability, a result compatible with those reported in previous studies and as expected, considering the characteristics of sandy-clay sediments of the Rio Claro Formation. With respect to the SDR-HAZARD method, the hazard is high in approximately 72% of the study area, due to the association between high natural vulnerability and potentially polluting activities. Generally, places with high contamination hazard were mainly related to industrial and urban areas, including sugarcane and citrus crops. Areas with low or null contamination hazard were found where there are types of land use with negligible potential contamination, such as natural vegetation and wetlands. As regards the SDR and SDR-HAZARD methods, the integrated analysis of the longitudinal unit conductance and other parameters provided robust results, whose advantages are the practicality use and reduced number of required parameters. Thus, these methods may be employed as alternatives to those considered traditional and already established in the related literature, providing, in the future, important tools for the protection of granular unconfined aquifers.

: Este trabalho tem como objeto o redirecionamento na política externa (RPE) - conceituado como as mudanças mais radicais, abrangentes e rápidas em política externa. Para analisar este fenômeno, são buscadas as principais condições conjunturais que podem aumentar a chance de ocorrência deste evento. Estas condições estão relacionadas ao conceito de Janela Política, que representa o período em que é rompida a inércia política e os tomadores de decisões têm condições de iniciar um processo de RPE. Objetivo: encontrar e delimitar quais as condições conjunturais que aumentam as chances de ocorrência de um RPE. Método: são utilizadas ferramentas metodológicas qualitativas e quantitativas. No segundo capítulo, a análise é feita por meio de um modelo de sobrevivência (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) que analisa o efeito das variáveis sobre os riscos de ocorrência do evento em foco, definido como as alterações mais extremas de comportamento nas votações da Assembleia Geral das Nações Unidas. No terceiro capítulo, é desenvolvida uma análise qualitativa histórica focando especificamente nos casos mais radicais de RPE, buscando identificar padrões comuns no desencadeamento dos processos em estudo; com base nestes casos, são desenvolvidas tipologias explicativas para identificar diferentes caminhos causais que levam ao evento em tela. Resultados: foi identificado que mudanças de regime e de líder político, no âmbito doméstico, e intervenções militares de potências estrangeiras aumentam os riscos de ocorrência de RPE; adicionalmente, a alta polarização política e a mudança de regime, a crise política doméstica com envolvimento de atores internacionais, os processos de isolamento internacional com imposição de sanções econômicas e os períodos de crise econômica com questionamento do modelo econômico vigente por parte dos atores políticos podem combinadamente levar à ocorrência de RPE. Conclusões: apesar da importância do interesses de atores políticos em empreender um projeto de RPE, foi identificado que determinados eventos aumentam os riscos deste processo ocorrer. / This thesis object is the foreign policy restructuring (FPR) - conceptualized as the most radical, encompassing, and fast changes in foreign policy. To analyze this phenomenon, there will be sought the main conjuncture conditions that might enhance the chances of this event occurrence. These conditions are related to the Policy Window concept, that represents a period during which the political inertia is disrupted and decision makers have the circumstances to undertake a FPR process. Objective: find and outline the conjectural conditions and variables that increase the chances of occurrence of a FPR. Methods: it will be used qualitative and quantitative methodological tools. In the second chapter, a survival model (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) analyses the effect variables related to the Policy Window concept over the risks of happening a FPR, defined as the most extreme changes of behavior in United Nations General Assembly roll-call votes. In the third chapter, a historical qualitative analysis is undertaken focusing exclusively on the most radical cases of FPR to develop explanatory typologies in order to identify causal conjunctures and common patters that lead to the outcome. Results: we identified that regime and political leader changes, in the national context, and military interventions by foreign powers enhance the risks of FPR occurrence; additionally, high political polarization combined with regime change, political crisis with international forces involvement, processes of international isolation with economic sanctions enforcement, and economic crises with political actors questioning the current economic model might be combined, configuring causal paths to a FPR. Conclusion: despite the importance of main political actors interest in implementing a FPR process, we identified that specific conjunctures and events raise the risks of a positive outcome.

Selecting the design ground motion parameters for future earthquakes is a challenging task in earthquake engineering. The intensity of ground shaking depends on the physics of the earthquake process, the seismic wave characteristics, damping and density of the elastic medium. The important parameters commonly used in engineering application are Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and response spectrum. This thesis addresses the question of how the above parameters can be rationally estimated for a very highly Seismic zone like North Eastern Region of India (NERI). A detailed literature review and necessity of engineering seismic hazard estimation for NERI is presented in Chapter 1.The geological and seismotectonic setup of NERI has been described. The seismic status of NERI has also been discussed in this chapter. In Chapter 2, three region specific seismological model parameters namely stress drop, quality factor and soil (kappa factor) parameters are estimated. These earthquake model parameters represent the source, path and site parameters respectively. Reliable estimates of these parameters for NERI have been presented here for the first time. The model parameters are computed for this region from time histories of past earthquake records. These parameters are used in developing reliable ground motion attenuation relation for NERI. In chapter 3, the thesis proposes a new attenuation relation for ground motion at the bedrock level for NERI. This region has very few recorded strong motion data though it has experienced more than 2000 earthquakes in the past 600 years. Attenuation relations for PGA and 5% damping Spectral acceleration(Sa) have been developed for NERI by stochastic simulation of ground motion based on the seismological model of Boore (1983, 2003). Seismological model parameters namely stress drop, quality factor and kappa factor calculated in chapter 2 are used in simulation of ground motion samples. Twenty thousand ground motion samples are simulated for different range of magnitudes and hypocentral distances. These simulated ground motion samples are used to derive attenuation relation using two stage regression analyses. The developed regional attenuation relation is validated with available recorded data. In chapter 4, the attenuation relation developed in the previous chapter is utilized to carry out Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for two important cities in NERI. Seismic hazard for 100, 500 and 2500 year return period for Guwahati and Shillong cities has been calculated considering all the seismotectonic sources within 300 'km radius around these two cities. Limited PSHA results are presented for eight important cities namely Aizawl, Agartala, Silchar, Karimganj, Jorhat, Itanagar, Kohima and Imphal of NERI corresponding to faults within the boundaries of India. Earthquake hazard microzonation maps at the bedrock level for a region of 200 km X 200 km centered around Guwahati city have been prepared in this chapter. In chapter 5, the results of chapter 3 and 4 are further used to compute city level hazard for Guwahati accounting for local site effects. For studying soil effects borehole data from 508 sites have been collected. Shear wave velocity has been estimated empirically. Based on this the city is divided in to four broad zones. PSHA has been carried out for the sites including the effect of soil layering. For routine design of structures, PGA and the response spectrum are sufficient. However, for very important structures such as bridges, dams and industrial plants ground motion histories are required in time domain. In chapter 6, the ground motion time histories for high magnitude earthquakes in NERI are simulated based on record of small events using Empirical Green's function (EGF) approach. Simulated ground motion samples valid for Assam Valley region, Shillong Plateau region and Eastern Himalayan region corresponding to magnitude Mw= 8.5 are presented. Similarly simulated ground motion records applicable for Arakan Yoma Belt region corresponding to magnitude Mw= 8.0 are presented. Also, simulated ground motion samples valid for Surma Valley region corresponding to magnitude Mw= 7.5 are presented. In the present study, simulated high magnitude strong motion records obtained by EGF approach have been compared with those obtained from the attenuation relation developed in chapter3. A summary of the work done in this thesis and a few suggestions for further research are presented in chapter 7. The data of past earthquakes used in this thesis for hazard analysis is presented in the Appendix.