The objective of the present study is to investigate various problems associate with breast cancer and lung cancer patients. In this study, we compare the effectiveness of breast cancer treatments using decision tree analysis and come to the conclusion that although certain treatment shows overall effectiveness over the others, physicians or doctors should discretionally give different treatment to breast cancer patients based on their characteristics. Reoccurrence time of breast caner patients who receive different treatments are compared in an overall sense, histology type is also taken into consideration. To further understand the relation between relapse time and other variables, statistical models are applied to identify the attribute variables and predict the relapse time. Of equal importance, the transition between different breast cancer stages are analyzed through Markov Chain which not only gives the transition probability between stages for specific treatment but also provide guidance on breast cancer treatment based on stating information. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on breast cancer doubling time which involves two commonly used assumptions: spherical tumor and exponential growth of tumor and the analysis reveals that variation from those assumptions could cause very different statistical behavior of breast cancer doubling time. In lung cancer study, we investigate the mortality time of lung cancer patients from several different perspectives: gender, cigarettes per day and duration of smoking. Statistical model is also used to predict the mortality time of lung cancer patients.

On any given day almost 400,000 children in the United States are living in an out-of-home care placement due to government intervention. Federal law allows for substantial variance in state child welfare policy on a number of topics. These policy decisions, however, are understudied both in terms of the forces driving them and also the impacts the policies have on actual outcomes for children in care. Utilizing a unique panel data set comprised of thirteen child welfare policies that vary both between states and over time we examine how well redistributive theory (constituent, institutional, paternalistic and resource pressures) explains state policy decisions from 2004-2010. The results provide very little confidence that redistributive pressures are driving state variance, though there are some noteworthy patterns. Within the four categories of explanatory variables, it would seem that child welfare policies are much more sensitive to changes in the social factors associated with a paternalistic response (unmarried birth rate and program utilization) and resource pressures than to constituent or institutional characteristics. Subsequently, a series of hazard models were conducted for each possible discharge outcome, using child level data from the 2010 AFCARS foster care dataset, with primary interest in the influence of policy and state level factors. Policy-level predictors primarily had negative impacts on discharge outcomes for children. Exceptions include better outcomes for children in states with higher generosity of access, increased rates of adoption and aging out with higher ASFA timeline compliance, and more discharges to reunification and adoption with more flexible adoption policy. State level factors consistently showed strong influences on child outcomes. While increased unemployment was associated with worse child outcomes, all other state level factors considered were associated with positive discharge outcomes for children in out-of-home care. This research broadens the theoretical application of redistributive theory to a new policy arena and adds an additional layer of state level explanatory variables to the much-studied outcomes for children in out-of-home care. It establishes that children and families do not exist in a vacuum and that child welfare research must take broader state and policy factors into account for a complete picture.

This thesis jointly models the 24 hour work trip timing and mode choice decisions of commuters in the Greater Toronto Area. A discrete-continuous specification, with a multinomial logit model for mode choice and an accelerated time hazard model for trip timing, is used to allow for unrestricted correlation between these two fundamental decisions. Statistically significant correlations are found between mode choice and trip timing for work journeys with expected differences between modes. Furthermore, the joint models have a wide range of policy sensitive statistically significant parameters of intuitive sign and magnitude, revealing expected differences between workers of different occupation groups. Furthermore, the estimated models have a high degree of fit to observed cumulative departure and arrival time distribution functions and to observed mode choices. Finally, sensitivity tests have demonstrated that the model is capable of capturing peak spreading in response to increasing auto congestion.

This thesis jointly models the 24 hour work trip timing and mode choice decisions of commuters in the Greater Toronto Area. A discrete-continuous specification, with a multinomial logit model for mode choice and an accelerated time hazard model for trip timing, is used to allow for unrestricted correlation between these two fundamental decisions. Statistically significant correlations are found between mode choice and trip timing for work journeys with expected differences between modes. Furthermore, the joint models have a wide range of policy sensitive statistically significant parameters of intuitive sign and magnitude, revealing expected differences between workers of different occupation groups. Furthermore, the estimated models have a high degree of fit to observed cumulative departure and arrival time distribution functions and to observed mode choices. Finally, sensitivity tests have demonstrated that the model is capable of capturing peak spreading in response to increasing auto congestion.

Doctor of Philosophy(PhD) / This thesis employs survival analysis framework (Allison, 1984) and the Cox’s hazard model (Cox, 1972) to estimate the probability that a credit rating survives in its current grade at a certain forecast horizon. The Cox’s hazard model resolves some significant drawbacks of the conventional estimation approaches. It allows a rigorous testing of non-Markovian behaviours and time heterogeneity in rating dynamics. It accounts for the changes in risk factors over time, and features the time structure of probability survival estimates. The thesis estimates three stratified Cox’s hazard models, including a proportional hazard model, and two dynamic hazard models which account for the changes in macro-economic conditions, and the passage of survival time over rating durations. The estimation of these stratified Cox’s hazard models for downgrades and upgrades offers improved understanding of the impact of rating history in a static and a dynamic estimation framework. The thesis overcomes the computational challenges involved in forming dynamic probability estimates when the standard proportionality assumption of Cox’s model does not hold and when the data sample includes multiple strata. It is found that the probability of rating migrations is a function of rating history and that rating history is more important than the current rating in determining the probability of a rating change. Switching from a static estimation framework to a dynamic estimation framework does not alter the effect of rating history on the rating migration hazard. It is also found that rating history and the current rating interact with time. As the rating duration extends, the main effects of rating history and current rating variables decay. Accounting for this decay has a substantial impact on the risk of rating transitions. Downgrades are more affected by rating history and time interactions than upgrades. To evaluate the predictive performance of rating history, the Brier score (Brier, 1950) and its covariance decomposition (Yates, 1982) were employed. Tests of forecast accuracy suggest that rating history has some predictive power for future rating changes. The findings suggest that an accurate forecast framework is more likely to be constructed if non-Markovian behaviours and time heterogeneity are incorporated into credit risk models.

Introdução: As técnicas mais comumente empregadas em análise de sobrevida que utilizam dados censurados são o estimador produto limite de Kaplan-Meier (KM) e o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Estas técnicas têm como suposição que a causa da perda de seguimento seja independente do tempo de sobrevida. Objetivo: O presente estudo visa a analisar o efeito das perdas de seguimento nestas duas técnicas. Material e Métodos: O estudo foi realizado utilizando-se o banco de dados dos pacientes cadastrados no Registro Hospitalar do Hospital do Câncer de São Paulo em 1994. Foram elaborados 28 bancos de dados simulando perdas informativas e não informativas. A perda informativa foi simulada transformando os óbitos em vivos, na proporção de 5 a 50%. A perda não informativa foi simulada através do sorteio de 5 a 50% do total do banco. O estimador de Kaplan-Meier (KM) foi utilizado para estimar a sobrevida acumulada no primeiro, terceiro e quinto ano de seguimento, e o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox para estimar as hazard ratio (HR). Todas as estimativas obtidas no KM e as HR's foram comparadas com os resultados do banco de dados original. Resultados: Houve maior proporção de perda nos pacientes com maior escolaridade, admitidos por convênio e particular e os menos graves (estádio I ou II). Quanto maior a proporção de perda informativa, maior a diferença alcançada nas estimativas realizadas pelo KM, verificando-se que a perda de seguimento superior a 15% acarretou diferenças superiores a 20% nas estimativas da probabilidade de sobrevida. As HR's foram menos afetadas, e proporções superiores a 20% de perda de seguimento acarretaram variações de cerca de 10% nas estimativas. Quando as perdas foram não informativas não houve diferenças significativas nas estimativas pelo KM e nas HR's em relação ao banco original. Conclusões: É importante avaliar se as perdas ocorridas em estudos de coorte são informativas ou não, pois se forem podem acarretar distorções principalmente nas estimativas feitas pelo método de KM. / Introduction: The Kaplan Meier product limit estimator (KM) and the Cox proportional hazard (HR) model are the most used tools in survival analysis. These two methods have the key assumption that censoring must be independent from the survival time. Objective: To analyze the consequences of loss to follow up in these two methods. Methods: The study has utilized the data of the Cancer Registry of the patients of Hospital do Cancer in São Paulo of 1994. The informative censure was simulated transforming the death by 5 to 50% into alive. Besides 5 to 50% was spared at random simulating the non-informative censoring. The survival probability and was calculated to the first, third and fifth year of follow –up. All the estimated probabilities and HR’s were compared with the results of the original data. Results: Patients with greater scholars, lower stages and admitted by health plans or private had more losses to follow up. The maximum proportion of accepted loss to follow –up is 10% to 15% when using the KM estimator, and the HR are less affected by the loss to follow-up and one can afford having 20% of it. When the losses were non informative there were no differences between the original probabilities. Conclusions: The possibility of over or under estimated probability must be analyzed in the presence of the losses to follow- up when using the KM and HR in survival analyses.

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第16818号 / 工博第3539号 / 新制||工||1535(附属図書館) / 29493 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 教授 大津 宏康, 教授 河野 広隆 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

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This dissertation consists of four chapters on the economics of marriage and divorce in Iran. The first chapter outlines major forces driving the recent transitions in Iran's marriage market. Age structure of the population, the rise of women's education, marriage and divorce laws, and fertility decline are the four main forces influencing marriage transitions, that is, the age of marriage, couple's age and education gaps, quality of marriage (stability, education status of children), and women's power within marriage. Chapter two looks at the change in age structure that influences the sex ratio. I consider the influence of the sex ratio on couples' age and education gaps using data from multiple national surveys from 1984-2007. The findings of this chapter show that a lower sex ratio, i.e. a greater supply of marriage-age women, increases the bargaining power of men at the time of marriage and thereby increases their ability to marry younger and more educated women. In chapter three, I evaluate the effects of demographic change, the sex ratio, and policy change, particularly the provision of family planning programs through health clinics on delayed marriage in rural Iran. I use data from Iran's 2000 Demographic and Health Survey to estimate a hazard model of timing of marriage. The results show that a lower sex ratio decreases the chances of a woman finding a man five years older, and easier access to family planning decreases her probability of marriage. In chapter four, I provide a legal history of Iran's marriage and divorce laws and then discuss how changes in the legal structure of marriage and divorce alter the terms of marital bargaining and force women to circumvent inequitable Iranian laws to improve their position. Then, I present a model of how Mahrieh could improve a woman's position within the household in light of the unequal divorce rights favoring men. As women cannot exit their marriage, they request a conditional and legally enforceable bond known as Mahrieh from their husbands to secure themselves against the risks of divorce or maltreatment within marriage. / Ph. D.

[EN] The global objective of the present thesis was to study the functional longevity defined as length of productive life (LPL) in five Spanish specialized lines of rabbit (A, V, H and LP). Chapter 3, aimed to check the genetic heterogeneity for longevity between the five lines estimating the additive variance and the corresponding effective heritabilities. As well as to test the genetic importance of time-dependent factors such as positive palpation order (OPP), physiological status (PS) and number of kits born alive (NBA) on the genetics of longevity. This point has been assessed using four different Cox proportional hazard models; the first one (Model 1) included all the previous factors in addition to the year-season effect, the inbreeding coefficient effect and finally the animal effect as random factor. The remaining three models were the same as Model 1 but excluding OPP (Model 2), or PS (Model 3), or NBA (Model 4). The complete data set comprised 15,670 does with records 35.6 % having censoring data, and the full pedigree file involved 19,405 animals. The heritability estimates for longevity in the five lines were low and ranged from 0.02±0.01 to 0.14±0.09, and consequently, it is not recommended to include this trait as selection criteria in rabbit breeding programs. Despite of the large variation of the heritability estimates, the corresponding HPD95% always overlapped and consequently the hypothesis of all lines having the same heritability cannot be discarded. Comparing the additive variance estimates of the four models, it was observed that by correcting for PS 51, 39, 38, 83 and 75% of the additive variance in lines A, V, H, LP and R, respectively, was removed. The risk of death or culling decreases as OPP advanced. Non-pregnant-non-lactating females are those under the higher risk. The does which had zero NBA had the highest risk, apart for this special figure (zero NBA) the risk decreased as NBA increased. Chapter 4 intended to estimate the genetic and environmental correlations between longevity and two prolificacy traits (number of kits born alive (NBA) and number of kits alive at weaning (NW)). Furthermore, to estimate the genetic and environmental correlations between longevity and the percentage of days that the doe spent in the different physiological statuses with respect to its entire productive life. The complete pedigree file comprised 19,405 animals. The datasets included records on 15,670 does which had 58,329 kindlings and 57,927 weanings. In general the genetic correlations between NBA and NW, and the hazard were low to very low, and the only line for which it can be said these genetic correlation to be different from zero was the LP line. Regarding the correlations between longevity and the percentage of days the doe spent in each physiological status, there were evidences of non-negligible genetic correlations between the two traits. Chapter 5 purposed to compare the five lines at their foundation and at fixed time periods during their selection programs. The first comparison was done at the origin of the lines, involving the complete data set, and using a genetic model (CM) including the additive values of the animals, so the effect of selection was considered. For the second comparison the same model as the first comparison was used, but excluding the additive effects from the model of analysis (IM), and involving only the data corresponding to each period, so the differences between the lines included the additive values of the animals. The lines V, H and LP showed at foundation a substantial superiority over line A. The line R had higher risk of death or culling with relevant differences when compared to V, H and LP lines. The maximum relative risks were observed between the lines LP and R (0.239), and between LP and A (0.317). For the comparisons at fixed times, the pattern of the differences between the A line and the others was similar to those observed at foundation. / [ES] El objetivo global de la presente tesis fue estudiar la longevidad funcional en cinco líneas españolas de conejos (A, V, H y LP), el carácter se definió como la longitud de la vida productiva. En el Capítulo 3, dirigido a comprobar la heterogeneidad genética de la longevidad entre las 5 líneas, se estimaron las varianzas aditivas y sus correspondientes heredabilidades efectivas. Y además se evaluó la importancia del orden de la palpación positiva (OPP), el estado fisiológico (PS) y el número de gazapos nacidos vivos (NBA) sobre el determinismo genético de la longevidad. Para ello se utilizaron 4 modelos de Cox de riesgos proporcionales; el primer modelo (Modelo 1) incluyó todos los factores anteriores, además del efecto del año-estación, el efecto de la consanguinidad y, finalmente, el valor aditivo de los animales como efecto aleatorio. Los otros tres modelos fueron igual que el Modelo 1 pero excluyendo OPP (Modelo 2), o PS (Modelo 3), o NBA (Modelo 4). Los datos de longevidad estaban referidos a 15,670 conejas y tuvieron una tasa de censura de 35.6%. La genealogía completa involucró a 19,405 animales. Las estimas de heredabilidad efectiva para la longevidad en las 5 líneas fueron bajas y variaron de 0.02±0.01 a 0.14±0.09. A pesar de la gran variación de las estimas puntuales de heredabilidad, los correspondientes intervalos HPD95% siempre se solaparon y por lo tanto la hipótesis de que todas las líneas tengan la misma heredabilidad no pudo descartase. Se observó que la exclusión de PS incrementó la varianza aditiva aproximadamente, en un 51, 39, 38, 83 y 75% en las líneas A, V, H, LP y R, respectivamente. El riesgo de muerte o eliminación disminuía a medida que avanzaba el OPP, observándose el riesgo más alto durante los primeros dos partos, partos en los que las conejas todavía están creciendo lo que sería un factor de riesgo importante. El nivel No-Gestante-No-Lactante de PS tuvo el mayor riesgo. Este nivel se interpreta como indicador de baja fertilidad y/o problemas de salud de la coneja. Las conejas que tenían cero NBA tuvieron el mayor riesgo de muerte o eliminación, aunque para el resto de niveles de NBA se apreció una disminución del riesgo a medida que aumenta la prolificidad. En el capítulo 4, se estimaron las correlaciones genéticas y ambientales entre la longevidad y dos caracteres de prolificidad [número de gazapos nacidos vivos (NBA) y el número de destetados (NW)]. El fichero de datos incluyó 58,329 partos y 57,927 destetes. También se estimaron las correlaciones entre longevidad y el porcentaje de días que la coneja pasó en los diferentes estados fisiológicos con respecto a la totalidad de su vida productiva. La única línea para la que se puede decir que la correlación genética entre NBA o NW y el riesgo fue significativamente diferente de cero fue la línea LP. Hubo evidencias de correlaciones genéticas no despreciables entre la longevidad y el porcentaje de días que la hembra pasó en cada estado fisiológico los dos caracteres. En el capítulo 5 se compararon las longevidades medias de las 5 líneas en su fundación y en períodos de tiempo determinados. La comparación de las líneas en el origen, utilizó todos los datos y un modelo genético (CM) que incluía los valores aditivos de los animales. Para la comparación en tiempos fijos se utilizó el mismo modelo, pero excluyendo los efectos aditivos del modelo de análisis (IM), utilizando sólo los datos correspondientes a cada período, por lo que las diferencias entre las líneas incluían los cambios debidos a la selección. Las líneas V, H y LP mostraron una superioridad sustancial sobre las líneas A y R. Los riesgos relativos máximos se observaron entre las líneas LP y R (0.239), y entre LP y A (0.317). Con respecto a las comparaciones en tiempos fijos, el patrón de las diferencias entre la línea de A y las otras líneas fue similar a los observados en la fundación. / [CA] L'objectiu global de la present tesi va ser estudiar la longevitat funcional en cinc línies espanyoles de conills (A, V, H i LP), el caràcter es va definir com la longitud de la vida productiva. Al Capítol 3, dirigit a comprovar l'heterogeneïtat genètica de la longevitat entre les 5 línies, es van estimar les variàncies additives i les seues corresponents heretabilitats efectives. A més a més, es va avaluar la importància de factors dependents del temps, com l'orde de la palpació positiva (OPP) , l'estat fisiològic (PS) i el nombre de llorigons nascuts vius (NBA) sobre el determinisme genètic de la longevitat. Per a això es van utilitzar 4 models de Cox de riscos proporcionals; el primer model (Model 1) va incloure tots els factors anteriorment assenyalats, a més de l'efecte de l'any-estació, l'efecte de la consanguinitat i, finalment, el valor additiu dels animals com a efecte aleatori. Els altres tres models van ser igual que el Model 1 però excloent l'OPP (Model 2) , o PS (Model 3) , o NBA (Model 4) . Les dades de longevitat estaven referides a 15,670 conilles i van tindre una taxa de censura de 35.6%. La genealogia completa va involucrar a 19,405 animals. Les estimes d'heretabilitat efectiva (Model 1) per a la longevitat en les 5 línies van ser baixes i van variar de 0.02±0.01 a 0.14±0.09. A pesar de la gran variació de les estimes puntuals d'heretabilitat, els corresponents intervals HPD95% sempre es van solapar i per tant la hipòtesi que totes les línies tinguen la mateixa heretabilitat no va poder descartar-se. Es va observar que l'exclusió de PS va incrementar la variància additiva, aproximadament, en un 51, 39, 38, 83 i 75% en les línies A, V, H, LP i R, respectivament. El risc de mort o eliminació disminuïa a mesura que avançava l'OPP, observant-se el risc més alt durant els primers dos parts, en què les conilles encara estan creixent el que seria un factor de risc important. El nivell No-Gestant-No-Lactant de PS va tindre el major risc en comparació amb els altres nivells. Les conilles que tenien zero NBA van tindre el major risc de mort o eliminació, encara que per a la resta de nivells de NBA es va apreciar una disminució del risc a mesura que augmentà la prolificitat. Al Capítol 4, es van estimar les correlacions genètiques i ambientals entre la longevitat i dos caràcters de prolificitat [nombre de llorigons nascuts vius (NBA) i el nombre de deslletats (NW)]. El fitxer de dades va incloure 58,329 parts i 57,927 deslletaments. L'única línia per a la que es pot dir que la correlació genètica entre NBA o NW i el risc va ser significativament diferent de zero va ser la línia LP. Evidències de correlacions genètiques no menyspreables entre longevitat i els percentatge de dies que la femella va passar en cada estat fisiològic. Al Capítol 5 es compararen les longevitats mitges de les 5 línies en la seua fundació i en períodes de temps determinats. Per a la comparació de les línies a l'origen, es van utilitzar totes les dades i un model genètic (CM) que incloïa els valors additius dels animals, per la qual cosa es va considerar l'efecte de la selecció a partir de la fundació. En la comparació en temps fixos se va utilitzar el mateix model que en l'anterior, però excloent els efectes additius del model d'anàlisi (IM), utilitzant només les dades corresponents a cada període, per la qual cosa les diferències entre les línies incloïen els canvis deguts a la selecció. Les línies V, H i LP van mostrar una superioritat substancial sobre les línies A i R. Els riscos relatius màxims es van observar entre les línies LP i R (0.239), i entre LP i A (0.317). Respecte a les comparacions en temps fixos, el patró de les diferències entre la línia de A i les altres línies va ser semblant als observats en la fundació. / El Nagar, AGF. (2015). Genetic analysis of longevity in specialized lines of rabbits [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/52390