<p>Introduction: Companies that are dependent on different commodities as input or output are exposed to price risk in these commodities. The price changes can be expressed as volatility and higher volatility results in higher risk. Hedging the commodity contracts with futures can offset this risk. One of the most important questions in this field is to what extent the risk exposure should be hedged with futures contract, i.e. the optimal hedge ratio.</p><p>Purpose: The study aims to conduct an analysis of the variance in different commodities contracts and provide evidence of the optimal hedge ratio in the respective commodities.</p><p>Method: We used a quantitative study with daily spot and futures price changes of Copper, Gold, Cotton and Oil. We investigated the 6-month hedging behaviour where timeseries were created for the period January-June each year during 2001-2004. We used a simple linear regression of the futures and spot price changes and a minimum variance model in order to calculate the optimal hedge ratio.</p><p>Conclusion: Companies that are dependent on Copper, Gold, Cotton and Oil can significantly reduce the risk by engaging in futures contracts. The optimal hedge ratio for Copper is (96%), Gold (52%), Cotton (96%) and Oil (88%). By applying the optimal hedge ratio, a company may reduce their risk exposure up to 90% compared to an unhedged position.</p>

Cette thèse vise à analyser les aspects juridiques du rôle joué par les acteurs ayant une stratégie actionariale de court-terme (hedge funds,...) dans le cadre des offres publiques d'acquisition. Outre l'identification de ces acteurs et la description des méthodes employées, il s'agit aussi de s'interroger sur les moyens à disposition de la société cible pour se défendre et de se demander si des évolutions législatives ne seraient pas nécessaires.

Šiame darbe visų pirma pateikiama alternatyvaus investavimo fondų apžvalga, vėliau pereinama prie arbitražo strategijų nagrinėjimo. Norint išnaudoti atsiradusį kainų skirtumą tarp dviejų vertybinių popierių su vienodais ateities pinigų srautais reikia pigesnį iš jų pirkti, o brangesnį skolintis ir parduoti. Skirtumui sumažėjus ar išnykus gaunamas pelnas. Skolinantis realiose rinkose beveik visada reikalaujama užstato. Dėl šios priežasties, kainų skirtumui netikėtai padidėjus, patiriamas nuostolis. Arbitražas tampa rizikinga investicija, reikalaujančia pradinio kapitalo. Sukūrėme patį paprasčiausią modelį, parodantį užstato reikalavimo įtaką pelnui iš arbitražo, taip pat randame optimalią strategiją, maksimizuojančią šį pelną. Parodome, kad rinkoje gali egzistuoti arbitražo galimybės, kurios nebus išnaudojamos dėl galimo kainų skirtumo padidėjimo. / This paper, after giving a short introduction to hedge fund industry, studies arbitrage strategies. We consider two assets with identical cash flows. Initially, there is a gap between their prices. Arbitrageur, willing to profit from the mispricing, buys cheaper of the two assets and sells the more expensive one short. If the price difference converges to zero, he makes profit. Arbitrage position can generate losses if the spread widens before converging. Short selling is almost always done with a collateral requirement. For this reason, arbitrage position can generate losses if the spread widens before converging. Arbitrage becomes a risky investment with an initial wealth requirement. We created a simple model, showing how collateral requirement affects profit from an arbitrage opportunity. We also found the optimal strategy to maximize this profit. We showed that arbitrage opportunities can exist in a market; however, they might not be exploitable due to unexpected widening of spreads.

本篇論文主要以事後的角度，分析美國實施量化寬鬆政策前後，在股市和房市上分別以ETF和REITs作為工具，研究如何進行國際資產配置以及匯率避險。國際資產配置包含兩項重要的工作：投資組合的建立以及匯率風險的管理，首先本研究會先以平均數─變異數投資組合模型以及夏普評鑑法進行投資組合的建構，接著以詹森迴歸法比較該投資組合與市場上其他指標基金有無超額報酬，最後再以最低變異數避險比率進行匯率避險，觀察績效改善的情況。 研究期間為2003年1月至2014年3月，時間序列切成金融危機前、金融危機期間、QE I、QE II和QE III期間，分析ETF投資在已開發和新興共24個國家，以及REITs投資在18個國家的結果。本篇研究發現： 一、從相關係數的變化可以發現一個國家所引發的金融事件可能會成為國際性的金融危機。 二、前後三次量化寬鬆政策成效以第一次最為明顯，之後報酬率的成長大抵上和量化寬鬆的規模呈正向關係。 三、金融危機前大多配置在新興國家，但股市於前兩次量化寬鬆時期配置於新興國家的比重較多，在第三次時則較多配置在已開發國家；而房市在三次量化寬鬆期間並無配置於某一型國家的偏好。 四、三次量化寬鬆期間最佳配置組合均優於新興國家型指標基金，說明單獨投資在新興國家頗不理想，突顯出國際資產配置的重要性。 五、金融危機前進行匯率避險績效可獲得改善，但除了ETF最適配置組合在QE I時期有獲得相當的績效改善之外，其他時期和REITs最適配置組合僅只報酬率標準差下降，績效改善幅度均不大。

The day-of-the-week effect is a market anomaly that manifests as the cyclical behaviour of traders in the market. This market anomaly was first observed by M.F.M. Osborne (1959). The literature distinguishes between two types of cyclical effects in the market: the cyclical pattern of mean returns and the cyclical pattern of volatility in returns. This dissertation studies and reports on cyclical patterns in the South African market, seeking evidence of the existence of the day-of-the-week effect. In addition, the dissertation aims to investigate the implications of such an effect on hedge fund managers in South Africa. The phenomenon of cyclical volatility and mean returns patterns (day-of-the-week effect) in the South African All-share index returns are investigated by making use of four generalised heteroskedastic conditional autoregressive (GARCH) models. These were based on Nelson's (1991) Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. In order to account for the risk taken by investors in the market Engle et al's, (1987) 'in-Mean' (risk factor) effects were also incorporated into the model. To avoid the dummy variable trap, two different approaches were tested for viability in testing for the day-of- the-week effect. In the first approach, one day is omitted from the equation so as to avoid multi-colinearity in the model. The second approach allows for the restriction of the daily dummy variables where all the parameters of the daily dummy variables adds up to zero. This dissertation found evidence of a mean returns effect and a volatility effect (day-of-the- week effect) in South Africa's All-share index returns data (where Wednesdays have been omitted from the GARCH equations). This holds significant implications for hedge fund managers. as hedge funds are very sensitive to volatility patterns in the market, because of their leveraged trading activities. As a result of adverse price movements, hedge fund managers employ strict risk management processes and constantly rebalance their portfolios according to a mandate, to avoid incurring losses. This rebalancing typically involves the simultaneous opening of new positions and closing out of existing positions. Hedge fund managers run the risk of incurring losses should they rebalance their portfolios on days on which the volatility in market returns is high. This study proves the existence of the day-of-the-week effect in the South African market. These results are further confirmed by the evidence of the trading volumes of the JSE's All-share index data for the period of the study. The mean returns effect (high mean returns) and low volatility found on Thursdays, coincide with the evidence that trading volumes on the JSE on Thursdays are the highest of all the days of the week. The volatility effect on Fridays, (high volatility in returns) is similarly correlated with the evidence of the trading volumes found in the JSE's All-share index data for the period of the study. Accordingly. hedge fund managers would be advised to avoid rebalancing their portfolios on Fridays, which show evidence of high volatility patterns. Hedge fund managers are advised to rather rebalance their portfolios on Thursdays, which show evidence of high mean returns patterns, low volatility patterns and high liquidity. / Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

This thesis is concerned with volatility estimation using financial panels and bias-reduction in non-linear dynamic panels in the presence of dependence. Traditional GARCH-type volatility models require large time-series for accurate estimation. This makes it impossible to analyse some interesting datasets which do not have a large enough history of observations. This study contributes to the literature by introducing the GARCH Panel model, which exploits both time-series and cross-section information, in order to make up for this lack of time-series variation. It is shown that this approach leads to gains both in- and out-of-sample, but suffers from the well-known incidental parameter issue and therefore, cannot deal with short data either. As a response, a bias-correction approach valid for a general variety of models beyond GARCH is proposed. This extends the analytical bias-reduction literature to cross-section dependence and is a theoretical contribution to the panel data literature. In the final chapter, these two contributions are combined in order to develop a new approach to volatility estimation in short panels. Simulation analysis reveals that this approach is capable of removing a substantial portion of the bias even when only 150-200 observations are available. This is in stark contrast with the standard methods which require 1,000-1,500 observations for accurate estimation. This approach is used to model monthly hedge fund volatility, which is another novel contribution, as it has hitherto been impossible to analyse hedge fund volatility, due to their typically short histories. The analysis reveals that hedge funds exhibit variation in their volatility characteristics both across and within investment strategies. Moreover, the sample distributions of fund volatilities are asymmetric, have large right tails and react to major economic events such as the recent credit crunch episode.

This thesis consists of three papers that make independendet contributions to the field of financial economics. As such, the papers, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, and Chapter 4, can be read independently of each other. In Chapter 2, we construct a simple measure of the aggregate illiquidity of hedge fund portfolios, and show that it has strong in- and out-of-sample forecasting power for 72 portfolios of international equities, U.S. corporate bonds, and currencies, over the 1994 to 2011 period. The forecasting ability of hedge fund illiquidity for asset returns is, in most cases, greater than, and provides independent information relative to, well-known predictive variables for each of these asset classes. We construct a simple equilibrium model to rationalise our findings and empirically verify auxiliary predictions of the model. In Chapter 3, I analyse the risk-shifting of hedge funds. Since the information on hedge fund holdings is very restricted, researchers have used the variance of returns as a proxy for risk. I propose a new method for measuring the time-varying variance. I use this method to investigate whether equity long-short hedge funds engage in risk-shifting driven by their past performance relative to their peers. I find that hedge funds which have strongly underperformed or outperformed their peers in recent months increase their exposure to the core strategy, i.e. the equity long-short strategy, and to non-core strategies. The risk shifting is mitigated for hedge funds with long redemption periods. Chapter 4 contributes to the equity premium prediction literature. I improve the forecast performance of typical single variable predictive regressions used in the equity premium prediction literature through Bayesian priors derived from consumption-based asset pricing models. To implement these model-based priors, I develop a Bayesian procedure which is rooted in the macroeconometrics literature. I find that the model-based priors can increase the explanatory power, measured by the out-of-sample R², of the single variable predictive regressions by several percentage points.

The aim of the thesis is to analyse the non-bank regulatory framework with particular attention devoted to hedge funds and private equity funds. The thesis describes functioning of the funds, discusses their performance during the global financial crisis of 2007-present and, predominantly, describes and analyses the EU and U.S. regulatory reforms with respect to these institutions which have arisen as a response to the crisis. Based on the analysis of the measures incorporated in these reforms, the thesis outlines its own proposal of an alternative investment fund regulatory framework which, if applied, would lead to a more efficient functioning of the alternative investment industry than what is likely to be the outcome of the already adopted reforms. The nature of the thesis is institutional; its methodology is characterized by a broad literature survey. Hedge funds and private equity funds are considered both in pre-crisis context as well as in circumstances that have been brought about by the crisis. Several hypotheses concerning systemic risk and the approach of the regulatory reforms to it are assessed. Mostly qualitative analysis is employed to evaluate the hypotheses.

Modes of the legal regulation of hedge funds This thesis focuses on hedge funds, their history, main strategies, role on the financial market and regulation. It compares approach to regulation of those entities in the US, European Union (and its certain member states) and in significant offshore jurisdictions. Its major focus is on the financial crisis from the year 2008 and its impacts on hedge funds. Its goal is to find whether the regulation of hedge funds can be beneficiary and what approach should the regulator take. It discusses the effects of the Dodd-Frank act, UCITS IV and AIFMD and compares those legislative documents. It consists of four chapters. In first chapter it tries to define the term hedge fund. Second chapter briefly explains history of hedge funds and historical approach to their regulation in the US. Third chapter discusses various strategies used by hedge funds and their outcomes. Legislative approach in various countries is being investigated in part four of this thesis. It compares regulation on hedge funds in the US, European Union, Great Britain, Ireland, Germany, Czech Republic and Singapore. It tries to predict what is going to happen with the hedge fund market after implementation of the EU Directive AIFM in the years 2013 to 2018 and it also tries to find the possible...

In the thesis, we investigate whether hedge fund managers have liquidity timing skills in the fixed income market, foreign exchange market and commodity market, respectively. Managers with the liquidity timing skills can strategically adjust hedge funds exposure to the target financial market based on their forecasts about the future changes in market liquidity. We find empirical evidence that hedge funds in certain categories have the skills to time the liquidity levels in the fixed income market, foreign exchange market and commodity market. We conduct a range of robustness tests, which show that hedge funds still exhibit liquidity timing skills after controlling for the factors that may affect timing ability. In particular, our findings are robust to the usage of leverage, funding constraints, investor redemption restrictions, hedge funds trades on market liquidity, financial crisis, hedge fund data biases, market return and volatility timing, liquidity risk factor, systematic stale pricing and option factors. We also conduct bootstrap analysis to ensure the results are not dependent on the normality assumption. Our investigation is helpful to understand the importance of market liquidity to hedge funds professional portfolio management.